The consensus appears complacent about balance of payments risks: the average current account deficit forecast in the Treasury’s monthly survey is £80 bn in 2021 and £84 bn in 2022, essentially unchanged from £74 bn in 2020 (£79 bn excluding trade in precious metals). The view here remains that a major blow-out is possible, based on the historical relationship with broad money growth – chart 6 – and a Brexit hit to the UK’s global export share.