Winston Churchill once said “you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.” That is also our base case for the UK Parliament on the Brexit deal. The reason why we expect the deal to be rejected on 15 January is because it does not represent the optimal outcome for any faction in the UK Parliament. Labour, for example, will likely attempt to trigger an early election. Also, support for a second referendum has increased beyond the traditional camp of Bremainers in the past month so PM May could come under pressure to call one. We expect both actions to prove unsuccessful. An early election can only be held with the support of two thirds of Parliament and that would mean Conservatives voting against their own party and taking the risk that Labour could come to power. A referendum looks more likely, but is also fraught with contentious issues. For example, there is no consensus on which questions should be asked. Also, “no-deal” is likely to be an option if a referendum is called, and that could make MP’s that only see it as a last resort solution to avoid a ‘hard Brexit (no-deal) reconsider their support.