Despite largely peaceful elections in 2005 and ongoing international involvement in the lead-up to the 2010 elections, a number of developments in Burundian politics create a potentially more volatile and unpredictable situation than in the last elections. The electoral outcome in 2010 is much less certain than in 2005, with the largely Hutu electorate up for grabs due to splits within CNDD-FDD, and the FNL’s transition into a political party capable of competing for votes. Several new political movements have emerged, among them the Movement for Solidarity and Democracy (MSD), a group which has attempted unsuccessfully to register as a political party since February 2007. Both MSD and FRODEBU have successfully recruited large numbers of demobilized FDD combatants, some of whom have expressed frustration over CNDD-FDD’s inability to bring about concrete improvements in their lives.[28] Meanwhile, the membership and political influence of UPD-Zigamibanga, a previously minor party, has grown following the absorption of a number of other former CNDD-FDD members. Analysts have argued that in a climate of electoral uncertainty, both the CNDD-FDD dominated government and the FNL may resort to abuses in efforts to gain the upper hand.[29]