The Saker: It is extremely hard to predict what Erdogan will do next due to his personality and to the objectively difficult situation Turkey is in. While I fully agree that it is likely Turkey will have to make concessions to Russia and Iran, this is primarily due to the fact that Erdogan has now soured his relationship with the traditional patrons of Turkey: the NATO/US/EU. I suspect that Erdogan will be far more willing to make promises than to actually deliver on them. The Russians are acutely aware of that and there is exactly *zero* real trust towards Erdogan in the Kremlin. On one hand, most Russian analysts see Erdogan as a smart man, but also as a treacherous megalomaniac who absolutely cannot be trusted. But on the other hand, Turkey is a large and powerful country, strategically located, and a key neighbor of Russia. Thus Russia simply has to try to establish the best relationship possible with whomever is in power in Turkey, even if that means dealing with a distasteful character like Erdogan.