Belgium, Italy and Sweden have been under 15 COVID deaths/day for the past month. UK is sitting at about 100/day right now (assuming the past two days, which are very low, just aren't all reported yet). US has been at about 1000 a day for the past couple weeks, and the seven day average is climbing. We can do the math on when those curves cross if we want, but the trends aren't good. NY and NJ screwed it up bad early early on, but it's not like we learned our lesson and now it's all roses.