Earlier this month Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic, who is a voting member this year, broke ranks with the messaging that had calmed markets towards the back end of last year, that US rates were likely to remain near zero until at least 2023, by suggesting that we could well see a taper of the $120bn monthly asset purchase by the second half of this year, and a rate hike before the end of 2022. This was a significant departure from the messaging seen at the last meeting, even though the Fed was slightly more upbeat about the US economic outlook at the time, improving its 2020 GDP forecast to a -2.4% contraction, while upgrading its 2021 forecast to 4.2% from 4%. It was also important to note the FOMC was more optimistic about the unemployment rate as well, forecasting it to fall to 5% by the end of this year, however the next couple of months could have a big part to play in whether that turns out to be in any way accurate.