The long awaited 'meaningful vote' of the UK Parliament on the deal the EU and the UK agreed upon in November 2018 is finally here. An initial vote on the deal on 11 December was cancelled by PM May in an attempt to get more assurances from the EU and thereby avoid a defeat. However, the situation has barely changed ever since and assurances provided by the EU in a letter released on 15 January is unlikely to have any impact. Consequently, it is expected that the UK Parliament will reject the deal during the vote stalled for the evening of 15 January. The question is not whether the deal will pass, but how big the defeat will be.