Back on the envelope calculations of the parliamentary arithmetic do not bode well for keeping the margin low (Figure 1). PM May can count on the votes of roughly half of the 316 Conservatives in Parliament who are on the government payroll and need to resign to vote against the deal. Assuming the DUP will vote against the deal in line with their opposition against the Irish backstop, PM May needs to limit the number of Conservative voting against the deal to 21 (see Figure 1) to keep the defeat margin below 50 and to 46 to limit the defeat margin below 100. The group of Brexiteers has in the past been estimated at 40-80 and that of Conservative Bremainers at 20-30, so in the worst case that all these people vote against the deal the defeat margin would reach 227.