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MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

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Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7079962/ SHA: f7cfc37ea164f16393d7f4f3f2b32214dea1ded4 Authors: Jamieson, Amanda M Date: 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2016-0060 License: cc-by Abstract: Recently, two coronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, have emerged to cause unusually severe respiratory disease in humans. Currently, there is a lack of effective antiviral treatment options or vaccine available. Given the severity of these outbreaks, and the possibility of additional zoonotic coronaviruses emerging in the near future, the exploration of different treatment strategies is necessary. Disease resilience is the ability of a given host to tolerate an infection, and to return to a state of health. This review focuses on exploring various host resilience mechanisms that could be exploited for treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other respiratory viruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Text: The 21st century was heralded with the emergence of two novel coronaviruses (CoV) that have unusually high pathogenicity and mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov) was first identified in 2003 [6] [7] [8] [9] . While there was initially great concern about SARS-CoV, once no new cases emerged, funding and research decreased. However, a decade later Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), also known as HCoV-EMC, emerged initially in Saudi Arabia [3, 10] . SARS-CoV infected about 8000 people, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 10% of those infected [11] . While MERS-CoV is not as widespread as SARS-CoV, it appears to have an even higher mortality rate, with 35-50% of diagnosed infections resulting in death [3, [12] [13] . These deadly betacoronavirus viruses existed in animal reservoirs [4] [5] 9, [14] [15] . Recently, other CoVs have been detected in animal populations raising the possibility that we will see a repeat of these types of outbreaks in the near future [11, [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . Both these zoonotic viruses cause a much more severe disease than what is typically seen for CoVs, making them a global health concern. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV result in severe lung pathology. Many infected patients have acute lung injury (ALI), a condition that is diagnosed based on the presence of pulmonary edema and respiratory failure without a cardiac cause. In some patients there is a progression to the more severe form of ALI, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [21] [22] [23] . In order to survive a given infection, a successful host must not only be able to clear the pathogen, but tolerate damage caused by the pathogen itself and also by the host's immune response [24] [25] [26] . We refer to resilience as the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of pathogens and the immune response to pathogens. A resilient host is able to return to a state of health after responding to an infection [24, [27] [28] . Most currently available treatment options for infectious diseases are antimicrobials, For reprint orders, please contact: reprints@futuremedicine.com REviEW Jamieson future science group and thus target the pathogen itself. Given the damage that pathogens can cause this focus on rapid pathogen clearance is understandable. However, an equally important medical intervention is to increase the ability of the host to tolerate the direct and indirect effects of the pathogen, and this is an area that is just beginning to be explored [29] . Damage to the lung epithelium by respiratory pathogens is a common cause of decreased resilience [30] [31] [32] . This review explores some of the probable host resilience pathways to viral infections, with a particular focus on the emerging coronaviruses. We will also examine factors that make some patients disease tolerant and other patients less tolerant to the viral infection. These factors can serve as a guide to new potential therapies for improved patient care. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are typified by a rapid progression to ARDS, however, there are some distinct differences in the infectivity and pathogenicity. The two viruses have different receptors leading to different cellular tropism, and SARS-CoV is more ubiquitous in the cell type and species it can infect. SARS-CoV uses the ACE2 receptor to gain entry to cells, while MERS-CoV uses the ectopeptidase DPP4 [33] [34] [35] [36] . Unlike SARS-CoV infection, which causes primarily a severe respiratory syndrome, MERS-CoV infection can also lead to kidney failure [37, 38] . SARS-CoV also spreads more rapidly between hosts, while MERS-CoV has been more easily contained, but it is unclear if this is due to the affected patient populations and regions [3] [4] 39 ]. Since MERS-CoV is a very recently discovered virus, [40, 41] more research has been done on SARS-CoV. However, given the similarities it is hoped that some of these findings can also be applied to MERS-CoV, and other potential emerging zoonotic coronaviruses. Both viral infections elicit a very strong inflammatory response, and are also able to circumvent the immune response. There appears to be several ways that these viruses evade and otherwise redirect the immune response [1, [42] [43] [44] [45] . The pathways that lead to the induction of the antiviral type I interferon (IFN) response are common targets of many viruses, and coronaviruses are no exception. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are contained in double membrane vesicles (DMVs), that prevents sensing of its genome [1, 46] . As with most coronaviruses several viral proteins suppress the type I IFN response, and other aspects of innate antiviral immunity [47] . These alterations of the type I IFN response appear to play a role in immunopathology in more than one way. In patients with high initial viral titers there is a poor prognosis [39, 48] . This indicates that reduction of the antiviral response may lead to direct viral-induced pathology. There is also evidence that the delayed type I IFN response can lead to misregulation of the immune response that can cause immunopathology. In a mouse model of SARS-CoV infection, the type I IFN response is delayed [49] . The delay of this potent antiviral response leads to decreased viral clearance, at the same time there is an increase in inflammatory cells of the immune system that cause excessive immunopathology [49] . In this case, the delayed antiviral response not only causes immunopathology, it also fails to properly control the viral replication. While more research is needed, it appears that MERS has a similar effect on the innate immune response [5, 50] . The current treatment and prevention options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are limited. So far there are no licensed vaccines for SAR-CoV or MERS-CoV, although several strategies have been tried in animal models [51, 52] . There are also no antiviral strategies that are clearly effective in controlled trials. During outbreaks several antiviral strategies were empirically tried, but these uncontrolled studies gave mixed results [5, 39] . The main antivirals used were ribavirin, lopinavir and ritonavir [38, 53] . These were often used in combination with IFN therapy [54] . However, retrospective analysis of these data has not led to clear conclusions of the efficacy of these treatment options. Research in this area is still ongoing and it is hoped that we will soon have effective strategies to treat novel CoV [3,36,38,40, [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] . The lack of effective antivirals makes it necessary to examine other potential treatments for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Even if there were effective strategies to decrease viral burden, for these viruses, the potential for new emerging zoonotic CoVs presents additional complications. Vaccines cannot be produced in time to stop the spread of an emerging virus. In addition, as was demonstrated during SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV outbreaks, there is always a challenge during a crisis situation to know which Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses REviEW future science group www.futuremedicine.com antiviral will work on a given virus. One method of addressing this is to develop broad-spectrum antivirals that target conserved features of a given class of virus [65] . However, given the fast mutation rates of viruses there are several challenges to this strategy. Another method is to increase the ability of a given patient to tolerate the disease, i.e., target host resilience mechanisms. So far this has largely been in the form of supportive care, which relies on mechanical ventilation and oxygenation [29, 39, 66] . Since SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were discovered relatively recently there is a lack of both patient and experimental data. However, many other viruses cause ALI and ARDS, including influenza A virus (IAV). By looking at data from other high pathology viruses we can extrapolate various pathways that could be targeted during infection with these emerging CoVs. This can add to our understanding of disease resilience mechanisms that we have learned from direct studies of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Increased understanding of host resilience mechanisms can lead to future host-based therapies that could increase patient survival [29] . One common theme that emerges in many respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is that much of the pathology is due to an excessive inflammatory response. A study from Josset et al. examines the cell host response to both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and discovered that MERS-CoV dysregulates the host transcriptome to a much greater extent than SARS-CoV [67] . It demonstrates that glucocorticoids may be a potential way of altering the changes in the host transcriptome at late time points after infection. If host gene responses are maintained this may increase disease resilience. Given the severe disease that manifested during the SARS-CoV outbreak, many different treatment options were empirically tried on human patients. One immunomodulatory treatment that was tried during the SARS-CoV outbreak was systemic corticosteroids. This was tried with and without the use of type I IFNs and other therapies that could directly target the virus [68] . Retrospective analysis revealed that, when given at the correct time and to the appropriate patients, corticosteroid use could decrease mortality and also length of hospital stays [68] . In addition, there is some evidence that simultaneous treatment with IFNs could increase the potential benefits [69] . Although these treatments are not without complications, and there has been a lack of a randomized controlled trial [5, 39] . Corticosteroids are broadly immunosuppressive and have many physiological effects [5, 39] . Several recent studies have suggested that other compounds could be useful in increasing host resilience to viral lung infections. A recent paper demonstrates that topoisomerase I can protect against inflammation-induced death from a variety of viral infections including IAV [70] . Blockade of C5a complement signaling has also been suggested as a possible option in decreasing inflammation during IAV infection [71] . Other immunomodulators include celecoxib, mesalazine and eritoran [72, 73] . Another class of drugs that have been suggested are statins. They act to stabilize the activation of aspects of the innate immune response and prevent excessive inflammation [74] . However, decreasing immunopathology by immunomodulation is problematic because it can lead to increased pathogen burden, and thus increase virus-induced pathology [75, 76] . Another potential treatment option is increasing tissue repair pathways to increase host resilience to disease. This has been shown by bioinformatics [77] , as well as in several animal models [30-31,78-79]. These therapies have been shown in cell culture model systems or animal models to be effective, but have not been demonstrated in human patients. The correct timing of the treatments is essential. Early intervention has been shown to be the most effective in some cases, but other therapies work better when given slightly later during the course of the infection. As the onset of symptoms varies slightly from patient to patient the need for precise timing will be a challenge. Examination of potential treatment options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV should include consideration of host resilience [29] . In addition to the viral effects, and the pathology caused by the immune response, there are various comorbidities associated with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that lead to adverse outcomes. Interestingly, these additional risk factors that lead to a more severe disease are different between the two viruses. It is unclear if these differences are due to distinct populations affected by the viruses, because of properties of the virus themselves, or both. Understanding these factors could be a key to increasing host resilience to the infections. MERS-CoV patients had increased morbidity and mortality if they were obese, immunocompromised, diabetic or had cardiac disease [4, 12] . REviEW Jamieson future science group Risk factors for SARS-CoV patients included an older age and male [39] . Immune factors that increased mortality for SARS-CoV were a higher neutrophil count and low T-cell counts [5, 39, 77] . One factor that increased disease for patients infected with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV was infection with other viruses or bacteria [5, 39] . This is similar to what is seen with many other respiratory infections. A recent study looking at malaria infections in animal models and human patients demonstrated that resilient hosts can be predicted [28] . Clinical studies have started to correlate specific biomarkers with disease outcomes in ARDS patients [80] . By understanding risk factors for disease severity we can perhaps predict if a host may be nonresilient and tailor the treatment options appropriately. A clear advantage of targeting host resilience pathways is that these therapies can be used to treat a variety of different infections. In addition, there is no need to develop a vaccine or understand the antiviral susceptibility of a new virus. Toward this end, understanding why some patients or patient populations have increased susceptibility is of paramount importance. In addition, a need for good model systems to study responses to these new emerging coronaviruses is essential. Research into both these subjects will lead us toward improved treatment of emerging viruses that cause ALI, such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The author has no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript. • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus are zoonotic coronaviruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. • Antivirals have limited effects on the course of the infection with these coronaviruses. • There is currently no vaccine for either severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus or Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. • Host resilience is the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of an infection and return to a state of health. • Several pathways, including control of inflammation, metabolism and tissue repair may be targeted to increase host resilience. • The future challenge is to target host resilience pathways in such a way that there are limited effects on pathogen clearance pathways. Future studies should determine the safety of these types of treatments for human patients. Papers of special note have been highlighted as:

Which medical comorbidities most profoundly influenced MERS-CoV outcomes?

Pretreatment Hepatitis C Virus NS5A/NS5B Resistance-Associated Substitutions in Genotype 1 Uruguayan Infected Patients https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6112080/ SHA: f01ad3545245b4f884b48aa2b69c9deb942c3e77 Authors: Aldunate, Fabián; Echeverría, Natalia; Chiodi, Daniela; López, Pablo; Sánchez-Cicerón, Adriana; Fajardo, Alvaro; Soñora, Martín; Cristina, Juan; Hernández, Nelia; Moreno, Pilar Date: 2018-08-14 DOI: 10.1155/2018/2514901 License: cc-by Abstract: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection treatment has dramatically changed with the advent of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). However, the efficacy of DAAs can be attenuated by the presence of resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) before and after treatment. Indeed, RASs detected in DAA treatment-naïve HCV-infected patients could be useful for clinical management and outcome prediction. Although the frequency of naturally occurring HCV NS5A and NS5B RASs has been addressed in many countries, there are only a few reports on their prevalence in the South American region. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of RASs to NS5A and NS5B inhibitors in a DAA treatment naïve cohort of Uruguayan patients infected with chronic hepatitis C and compare them with reports from other South American countries. Here, we found that naturally occurring substitutions conferring resistance to NS5A and NS5B inhibitors were present in 8% and 19.2%, respectively, of treatment-naïve HCV genotype 1 infected patients. Importantly, the baseline substitutions in NS5A and NS5B herein identified differ from the studies previously reported in Brazil. Furthermore, Uruguayan strains subtype 1a clustered within all major world clades, showing that HCV variants currently circulating in this country are characterized by a remarkable genetic diversity. Text: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infection treatment has dramatically improved thanks to the introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs). These antivirals have significantly increased response rates (up to 98%) and greatly reduced treatment duration [1] . Currently available DAAs are classified into four categories given their molecular targets in the HCV replication cycle: (1) NS3/4A protease inhibitors (PIs) bind to the active site of the NS3/4A protease; (2) NS5A inhibitors interact with domain 1 of the NS5A dimer, although the exact mechanism of NS5A inhibition remains to be fully elucidated; (3) nucleos(t)ide analog NS5B polymerase inhibitors are incorporated into the nascent RNA chain resulting in chain termination by compromising the binding of the incoming nucleotide; (4) nonnucleoside NS5B polymerase inhibitors interact with either the thumb 1, thumb 2, palm 1, or palm 2 domain of NS5B and inhibit polymerase activity by allosteric mechanisms [2] [3] [4] . However, the extreme mutation and high replication rates of HCV, together with the immune system pressure, lead to a remarkable genetic variability that can compromise the high response rates to DAAs due to the preexistence of resistanceassociated substitutions (RASs) [5, 6] . Each drug or class of DAA is characterized by specific resistance profiles. The likelihood that a DAA will select for and allow outgrowth of viral populations carrying RASs depends on the DAA's genetic barrier to resistance (the number and type of mutations needed to generate an amino acid substitution that confers resistance), the viral fitness (replicative capacity) of the resistant variant, and viral genotypes and subtypes [7, 8] . The prevalence of RASs in treatment-naïve patients has been broadly reported worldwide [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] . However, apart from Brazil and Argentina, this issue has not been fully addressed in other South American countries yet [9, [17] [18] [19] . The lack of information in relation to preexisting baseline RASs, added to the high cost of these new drugs, are the major limiting factors for the broad implementation of these new therapies in Uruguay as well as in other Latin American countries (low-or lower-middle income) [20] . In this study, we explored the presence of resistance variants to NS5A and NS5B inhibitors in a DAA treatment naïve cohort of Uruguayan patients chronically infected with hepatitis C. Here, we aimed to contribute to the knowledge of the circulation of HCV resistant variants in the South American region. Samples. Serum samples were obtained from 31 patients with serological markers for HCV, which were recruited between 2015 and 2017 at the Gastroenterology Clinic from Hospital de Clínicas, Montevideo, Uruguay. HCV infection was confirmed by Abbott realtime HCV (Abbott Molecular Inc., Des Plaines, USA). Patients selected for this study were both chronically infected with HCV genotype 1 and DAA treatment-naïve at the time of blood extraction. Written informed consent was obtained from all patients. The studies have been performed according to the World Medical Association Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the appropriate institutional board (Hospital de Clínicas ethical committee). 2.2. RNA Extraction, cDNA Synthesis, and NS5A and NS5B Amplification. Viral RNA was extracted from 140 μl of serum using the QIAamp Viral RNA mini kit (QIAgen, Hilden, Germany) according to the manufacturer's protocol. The viral RNA was heated at 65°C for 5 min and used as a template for a reverse transcription reaction. The reverse transcription reaction mixture contained 5 μl of the RNA template, 1 μl of random hexamer 100 ng/μl (Invitrogen Life Technologies, Carlsbad, CA, USA), 1 μl of dNTP mix (10 mM each), 4 μl of 5X first-strand buffer, 2 μl of 0.1 M DTT, 1 μl of SuperScript II reverse transcriptase (200 U/μl) (Invitrogen Life Technologies, Carlsbad, CA, USA), and 1 μl (40 U/μl) RNaseOUT (Invitrogen Life Technologies, Carlsbad, CA, USA). The reverse transcription was performed at 42°C for 50 min, and then the reverse transcriptase enzyme was inactivated at 70°C for 15 min. PCR amplification of NS5A and NS5B genome regions was performed using primers and conditions previously described [10] . Amplicons were purified using the Illustra GFX PCR DNA and Gel Band Purification Kit (GE Healthcare Life Science, Buckinghamshire, UK) according to the manufacturer's protocol. 2.3. NS5A and NS5B Sequencing. The purified product was then sequenced using the same sets of primers used for PCR amplification. Bidirectional Sanger sequencing was performed by Macrogen Korea (http://www.macrogen.com). 2.4. NS5A and NS5B Genotype Determination. HCV NS5A and NS5B consensus sequences obtained from Uruguayan patients were aligned with sequences from HCV representing all genotypes and main subtypes isolated in different geographic regions of the world. These sequences were obtained from Los Alamos HCV sequence database and from the NIAID Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR) [21, 22] . For strains included in these studies, see Supplementary Material Table S1 . Sequences were aligned using the CLUSTAL W software [23] . Once aligned, the best evolutionary model that described our sequence data was assessed using ModelGenerator program [24] . Using the GTR + G + I model (General time reversible + gamma + invariant sites), maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees were constructed for both NS5A and NS5B using the MEGA 5.0 software [25] . For NS5A, 953 nucleotides (positions 6367 to 7319, relative to HCV 1a reference strain, H77 NC_004102) were included in the phylogenetic analysis, whereas for NS5B, only 361 nucleotides corresponding to the Okamoto region (positions 8265 to 8625, relative to strain H77 NC_004102) were included. As a measure of the robustness of each node, we employed the bootstrapping method (1000 pseudoreplicates). For NS5A 1a Uruguayan sequences (n = 20), a second alignment and maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree was generated in order to analyze HCV evolutionary relationships between Uruguayan, Brazilian, and worldwide strains. For non-Uruguayan strains included in this analysis, see Supplementary Material Table S2. 2.5. NS5A and NS5B Sequence Analysis. In order to properly identify substitution changes in NS5A and NS5B regions from HCV strains circulating in Uruguayan patients, we generated world consensus sequences for 1a and 1b subtypes using a wide range of NS5A and NS5B sequences from HCV strains isolated worldwide. For this purpose, NS5A gene sequences corresponding to subtypes 1a (n = 160) and 1b (n = 88) were retrieved from Los Alamos HCV sequence database and from the NIAID ViPR [21, 22] . Likewise, datasets of 150 and 124 NS5B sequences were generated for subtypes 1a and 1b, respectively. Using Seqman program, implemented in DNAStar 5.01 package (DNASTAR, Madison, USA), a world consensus nucleotide sequences were generated for each gene and subtype. Each Uruguayan sequence was subsequently aligned to the corresponding reference sequences, and then in silico translated. The amino acid sequences obtained were compared in order to explore the presence of RASs as well as the presence of polymorphisms at a RAS position (RAPs) in Uruguayan HCV strains. RAPs are defined as any change from reference sequence for a specific genotype at a position associated with NS5A resistance [26] . To study the genetic variability of NS5A and NS5B regions of HCV strains circulating in Uruguayan patients, sequences of these regions (accession numbers MH070029-MH070090) were aligned with corresponding sequences from 59 HCV strains isolated elsewhere, representing all genotypes and main subtypes (for strains included in these analyses, see Supplementary Material Table S1 ). Therefore, maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees were constructed. The results of these studies are shown in Figure 1 All strains in the phylogenies were assigned according to their genotype, and each cluster was supported by very high bootstrap values for both analyzed regions. Strains isolated from Uruguayan patients (n = 31) were assigned to genotype 1, 20 of which corresponded to subtype 1a and 11 to subtype 1b. The results of NS5A (Figure 1 (a)) and NS5B (Figure 1 Genotype 1b phylogenetic analyses were concordant for both genomic regions in all 31 sequences, suggesting no recombination events between these regions. To further analyze the evolutionary relationships between the Uruguayan strains and those circulating in Brazil and elsewhere, a second maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree of HCV-1a sequences of NS5A partial region was built ( Figure 2 ). As was previously described, two distinct 1a clades (clades 1 and 2) were observed. Brazilian sequences clustered in a large group of related sequences inside clade 1 [9] . Whereas NS5A Uruguayan strains (in red) did not cluster in a particular clade, rather, they grouped dispersedly within all major world clades. With the purpose of studying the amino acid (AA) substitutions along the NS5A protein, Uruguayan HCV AA sequences were aligned with NS5A world consensus sequences (residues 23 to 354 relative to NS5A protein sequence). AA substitutions at positions previously found to be potentially associated with resistance to NS5A inhibitors, as well as polymorphisms at a RAS position, were identified. These results are summarized in Table 1 . RASs to NS5A inhibitors (L31M and L31V) were identified in 2 strains out of 25 (8%) fully sequenced samples. RAPs were found in 3 strains (subtype 1a): 2 exhibited the substitution H58P and 1 the substitution K24Q. Although these substitutions were not reported as resistant, some changes at these positions were previously described as RASs in subtype 1a, namely H58D and K24R [27, 28] . Finally, substitution E62D was found in one subtype 1a strain. This change is considered as a secondary substitution because, although it does not confer resistance by itself, when combined with a known RAS it does. In fact, it confers a higher level of resistance than the one achieved by the RAS alone [26] . In addition, several polymorphisms that have not been previously reported to be associated with a resistant phenotype were also detected (see Supplementary Material Table S3 ). In order to study substitutions along NS5B protein, Uruguayan HCV AA sequences were aligned to the NS5B world consensus sequences. Almost full-length AA sequences were obtained in 26 out of 31 analyzed strains. 23 sequences span residues 36 to 539 whereas the remaining 3 span residues 36 to 557 of NS5B protein. This issue limited our studies, since many of the described RASs are observed as of residue 553. Importantly, RASs to NS5B inhibitors ( Table 2) were observed in 5 strains out of 26 sequenced samples (19.2%). C451R was found in two isolates while A421V was found in only one. In 2 of the 3 strains for which we were able to obtain longer sequences, RASs S556G (subtype 1a) and Q556R (subtype 1b) were observed. Finally, we found two RAPs: A421V (in 2 subtype 1b strains) and A553G (in 1 subtype 1a strain). Although A421V has been associated with resistance to beclabuvir (BCV) in patients infected with HCV subtype 1a, this resistant phenotype has not been proven in strains subtype 1b [29] . In position 553, the substitution reported as resistant was A553T [8] . As was the case for NS5A, different polymorphisms not previously associated with a resistant phenotype were also detected in NS5B (see Supplementary Material Table S4 ). The advent of DAAs therapies constitutes one of the major breakthroughs in HCV infected patients management. However, these new treatment options are far from being universally available, in particular for HCV infected patients relying on Latin American public healthcare systems. The main limiting factors for worldwide access to DAAs in our region concern the high cost, the inadequate management of public healthcare systems, the limited access of low-income or uninsured populations to healthcare providers, and the lack of accurate epidemiological information [20, [30] [31] [32] . In Uruguay, these therapies became recently available, and although some have been approved for their use by the public health authorities (Viekira pak and sofosbuvir/ledipasvir therapies), they are not currently financially covered, except in specific cases. Despite the high rates of viral response achieved with DAA-based treatments, still 1 to10% of the patients fails to eliminate infection, and in these cases, baseline and emergent resistance variants turn out to be key factors contributing to treatment failure [5, 17, 33] . Unfortunately, we are currently unable to properly assess the number of HCV infected people in Uruguay and even more to figure out the frequency and type of RASs circulating. These facts could compromise the effectiveness of these new therapies in our country. We have previously reported that naturally occurring substitutions conferring resistance to NS3 inhibitors exist in a significant proportion of Uruguayan patients infected with HCV genotype 1, and we showed that this frequency seemed to be higher than in other South American countries (Brazil and Argentina) [34] . The present study describes the prevalence of baseline NS5A and NS5B RASs in HCV genotype 1 infected DAA-naïve patients in a Uruguayan cohort. The presence of substitutions conferring resistance to NS5A inhibitors has been widely reported both in therapynaïve and in relapser patients from Europe [10, 33, [35] [36] [37] [38] , USA [37, 39, 40] , and Asia [41] [42] [43] . However, NS5A sequences from South America are poorly analyzed yet [9, 44] . Recent studies have revealed that the mean prevalence of NS5A genotype 1 baseline RASs to different inhibitors ranges from 6% to 16% using population sequencing or deep sequencing [27, 37, 45, 46] . Importantly, the prevalence and type of baseline NS5A RASs varies slightly by geographic regions. For instance, L31M was found in 2.2% of genotype 1a infected patients in Europe, in 4.1% of those in Oceania, and strikingly in no patient from the USA [27] . For this reason, we believe that there is a need to contribute data from our region, for which we still do not have enough information, apart from Brazil [9, 44] . The results of this study indicate the presence of DAA NS5A RASs in 2 HCV strains (8% of the patients enrolled in this study), with baseline RASs detected at position 31 (see Table 1 ). L31M substitution confers resistance to daclatasvir (DCV), ledipasvir (LDV), and elbasvir (EBV) in both 1a and 1b subtypes [5, 6, 8, 28, 47, 48] , whereas substitution L31V does it to DCV in subtypes 1a and 1b, to LDV in subtype 1b, and to EBV in subtype 1a [5, 6, 28] . Given that both L31V and L31M are clinically relevant RASs, their detection at baseline may influence the choice of first-line treatment regimens [28] . The substitutions H58P and K24Q found in two patients are considered as resistance-associated polymorphisms (RAPs). The RASs characterized at these positions were H58D and K24G/N/R [5, 6, 27, 28, 49, 50] . The substitution H58P was found as a baseline RAP in relapsers to LDV (HARVONI prescription, https://www.gilead.com/-/ media/files/pdfs/medicines/liver-disease/harvoni/harvoni_pi. pdf?la=en). However, it is sometimes regarded as a RAS [10, 51] , despite conferring only 1.2 fold change in resistance in in vitro studies using the 1a replicon system [39] . We did not find M28T/V, Q30R/H, or Y93H substitutions as there were previously reported in Brazil and worldwide [9, 27, 44] . The amino acid substitution E62H was found in one Uruguayan patient. Although this change does not confer resistance by itself but in combination with Q30R, it generates a high resistance level to DCV [52] . The presence of baseline NS5A RASs impacts treatment outcome in some patient groups by affecting SVR rates. The detection of NS5A preexistent RASs may play a relevant role in the choice of first-line treatment regimens or in the simplification/shortening of recommended regimens, in order to bring SVR rates close to the highest achievable [27, 38, 41, 53] , in particular in countries such as Uruguay, where only two different DAA-containing treatment regimens are approved for their use. Regarding NS5B gene, global analysis (with the exception of South America [17, 19] ) revealed that NS5B DAA resistance substitutions are infrequent [14] . Our study showed the presence of NS5B inhibitors RASs in 5 out of 26 analyzed HCV infected Uruguayan patients naïve to treatment (19.2%). Substitutions found in this work were A421V and S556G associated in subtype 1a with resistance to BCV and dasabuvir (DSV), respectively [8, 28, 29, 54, 55] , and Q556R associated with resistance to DSV both in genotype 1a and 1b [12, 28] . Substitution C451R, observed in two Uruguayan patients, was reported previously in patients who failed to clear the infection after treatment with OBV/PTV/r + DSV ± RBV. In these cases, it appeared in combination with G558R (Trial Coral I-Cohort 2: http:// www.hcv-trials.com/showStudy.asp?Study=86). RAPs in positions 421 and 553 (A421V in two subtype 1b isolates and A553G in one subtype 1b isolate) were also found. Although A421V has been associated with resistance to BCV in patients with subtype 1a, this phenotype has not been proven in strains of subtype 1b [29] . In position 553, the substitutions reported as resistant are A553T in subtype 1a [8] and A553V in subtype 1b [54] , conferring resistance to DSV. In contrast to our results, Noble and coworkers (2016) reported the presence of V321A, A421G, M414V, Y448H, L159F, and C316N in Brazilian isolates [17] , yet none of these mutations were found in this study, probably due to the diversity found between Uruguayan and Brazilian strains ( Figure 2 ). Nevertheless, substitution A421V was found in Brazil [17] , Argentina [19] , and Uruguay. The RAS S282T was detected neither in Brazilian reports nor in this current work (Uruguay) [17, 18, 56] . Our findings further confirm and complement previous studies which evidenced a low prevalence of this substitution in vivo, probably due to its low replicative fitness [14, 18, 57] . Despite our results, it is worth mentioning that the presence of baseline NS5B RASs conferring resistance to nucleotide or nonnucleoside NS5B inhibitors has not been shown to have any impact on virologic responses thus far [53, 58] . These results show both diversity in the baseline polymorphisms found in different Latin American countries and in the evolutionary relationships of Uruguayan isolates ( Figure 2 ). This fact could be linked not only to the isolates' geographic region and viral intrinsic characteristics but also to the genetic background of the host. It is worth mentioning that we live in a vast continent inhabited by populations with different genotypic characteristics that might, depending on the situation, require different approaches to treatment. Indeed, we have recently found that allele and genotype frequencies at IL28B locus of Uruguayan individuals closely resemble those of an admixed population rather than a uniformly European-descendant one [59] . Altogether, we believe that it could be important to carry out studies throughout the South American region in order to establish the prevalence of RASs in NS5A and NS5B in different countries. In fact, this will aid in understanding that not every treatment regimen might be adequate for every patient and country. The data we presented here might guide not only physicians in making therapeutic decisions but also public health authorities in approving more diverse treatment combinations. These treatment formulations would cover most of the circulating strains in our region, a region with an extremely diverse genetic background population. To our knowledge, the present study revealed for the first time the presence of RASs in the NS5A and NS5B regions of HCV genotype 1 Uruguayan strains from patients who have not been previously treated with DAAs and is one of the few South American countries to report on this matter. It is currently unclear if preexisting viral variants with reduced susceptibility to DAAs are clinically relevant for the prediction of virologic treatment failure. However, individualized DAA therapy based on baseline resistance analysis may be beneficial for optimizing treatment efficacy in patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and risk factors for treatment failure. Therefore, the potential role of baseline resistance testing remains an area of critical research and clinical questions. The data used to support the findings of this study are included within the article. The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest. Fabián Aldunate and Natalia Echeverría contributed equally to this work. Supplementary Material Table S1 : hepatitis C Virus NS5A and NS5B sequences used as representatives of each genotype to perform the phylogenetic analysis. Their corresponding genotype, country of isolation, and GenBank accession number are indicated. Supplementary Material Table S2 : hepatitis C Virus NS5A subtype 1a sequences used to reveal evolutionary relationships between Uruguayan strains and others isolated elsewhere. Their corresponding country of isolation and GenBank accession number are indicated. Supplementary Material Table S3 : amino acid substitutions in NS5A protein not previously associated with resistance to NS5A inhibitors. Supplementary Material Table S4 : amino acid substitutions in NS5B protein not previously associated with resistance to polymerase inhibitors. (Supplementary Materials)

What are the key factors preventing the elimination of HCV infection in some patients?

Community-acquired pneumonia in children — a changing spectrum of disease https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608782/ SHA: eecb946b106a94f26a79a964f0160e8e16f79f42 Authors: le Roux, David M.; Zar, Heather J. Date: 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00247-017-3827-8 License: cc-by Abstract: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, despite advances in prevention and management. Over the last 20 years, there has been a substantial decrease in the incidence of childhood pneumonia and pneumonia-associated mortality. New conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae have contributed to decreases in radiologic, clinical and complicated pneumonia cases and have reduced hospitalization and mortality. The importance of co-infections with multiple pathogens and the predominance of viral-associated disease are emerging. Better access to effective preventative and management strategies is needed in low- and middle-income countries, while new strategies are needed to address the residual burden of disease once these have been implemented. Text: Pneumonia has been the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years for decades. Although there have been substantial decreases in overall child mortality and in pneumonia-specific mortality, pneumonia remains the major single cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, causing approximately 900,000 of the estimated 6.3 million child deaths in 2013 [1] . Substantial advances have occurred in the understanding of risk factors and etiology of pneumonia, in development of standardized case definitions, and in prevention with the production of improved vaccines and in treatment. Such advances have led to changes in the epidemiology, etiology and mortality from childhood pneumonia. However in many areas access to these interventions remains sub-optimal, with large inequities between and within countries and regions. In this paper we review the impact of recent preventative and management advances in pneumonia epidemiology, etiology, radiologic presentation and outcome in children. The overall burden of childhood pneumonia has been reduced substantially over the last decade, despite an increase in the global childhood population from 605 million in 2000 to 664 million in 2015 [2] . Recent data suggest that there has been a 25% decrease in the incidence of pneumonia, from 0.29 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries in 2000, to 0.22 episodes per child year in 2010 [3] . This is substantiated by a 58% decrease in pneumonia-associated disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2013, from 186 million to 78 million as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study [1] . Pneumonia deaths decreased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 900,000 in 2013 [1] . These data do not reflect the full impact of increasingly widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-and middle-income countries because the incidence of pneumonia and number of deaths are likely to decrease still further as a result of this widespread intervention [4] . Notwithstanding this progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of disease in low-and middle-income countries, where more than 90% of pneumonia cases and deaths occur. The incidence in high-income countries is estimated at 0.015 episodes per child year, compared to 0.22 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries [3] . On average, 1 in 66 children in high-income countries is affected by pneumonia per year, compared to 1 in 5 children in low-and middle-income countries. Even within low-and middleincome countries there are regional inequities and challenges with access to health care services: up to 81% of severe pneumonia deaths occur outside a hospital [5] . In addition to a higher incidence of pneumonia, the case fatality rate is estimated to be almost 10-fold higher in low-and middle-income countries as compared to high-income countries [3, 5] . Childhood pneumonia can also lead to significant morbidity and chronic disease. Early life pneumonia can impair longterm lung health by decreasing lung function [6] . Severe or recurrent pneumonia can have a worse effect on lung function; increasing evidence suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease might be related to early childhood pneumonia [7, 8] . A meta-analysis of the risk of long-term outcomes after childhood pneumonia categorized chronic respiratory sequelae into major (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) and minor (chronic bronchitis, asthma, abnormal pulmonary function) groups [9] . The risk of developing at least one of the major sequelae was estimated as 6% after an ambulatory pneumonia event and 14% after an episode of hospitalized pneumonia. Because respiratory diseases affect almost 1 billion people globally and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity [10] , childhood pneumonia might contribute to substantial morbidity across the life course. Chest radiologic changes have been considered the gold standard for defining a pneumonia event [11] because clinical findings can be subjective and clinical definitions of pneumonia can be nonspecific. In 2005, to aid in defining outcomes of pneumococcal vaccine studies, the World Health Organization's (WHO) standardized chest radiograph description defined a group of children who were considered most likely to have pneumococcal pneumonia [12] . The term "end-point consolidation" was described as a dense or fluffy opacity that occupies a portion or whole of a lobe, or the entire lung. "Other infiltrate" included linear and patchy densities, peribronchial thickening, minor patchy infiltrates that are not of sufficient magnitude to constitute primary end-point consolidation, and small areas of atelectasis that in children can be difficult to distinguish from consolidation. "Primary end-point pneumonia" included either end-point consolidation or a pleural effusion associated with a pulmonary parenchymal infiltrate (including "other" infiltrate). Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination has decreased the incidence of radiologic pneumonia. In a review of four randomized controlled trials and two case-control studies of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in high-burden communities, the vaccination was associated with an 18% decrease in radiologic pneumonia [13] . Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination was associated with a 26% decrease in radiologic pneumonia in California between 1995 and 1998 [14] . In vaccine efficacy trials in low-and middle-income countries, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduced radiologic pneumonia by 37% in the Gambia [15] , 25% in South Africa [16] and 26% in the Philippines [17] . The WHO radiologic case definition was not intended to distinguish bacterial from viral etiology but rather to define a sub-set of pneumonia cases in which pneumococcal infection was considered more likely and to provide a set of standardized definitions through which researchers could achieve broad agreement in reporting chest radiographs. However, despite widespread field utilization, there are concerns regarding inter-observer repeatability. There has been good consensus for the description of lobar consolidation but significant disagreement on the description of patchy and perihilar infiltrates [18, 19] . In addition, many children with clinically severe lung disease do not have primary end-point pneumonia: in one pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination study, only 34% of children hospitalized with pneumonia had primary end-point pneumonia [20] . A revised case definition of "presumed bacterial pneumonia" has been introduced, and this definition includes pneumonia cases with WHO-defined alveolar consolidation, as well as those with other abnormal chest radiograph infiltrates and a serum C-reactive protein of at least 40 mg/L [21, 22] . This definition has been shown to have greater sensitivity than the original WHO radiologic definition of primary end-point pneumonia for detecting the burden of pneumonia prevented by pneumococcal conjugate vaccination [23] . Using the revised definition, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-10), had a vaccine efficacy of 22% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in young children in South America [22] , and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 had a vaccine efficacy of 39% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in children older than 16 weeks who were not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa [21] . Thus there is convincing evidence that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination decreases the incidence of radiologic pneumonia; however there is no evidence to suggest that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination modifies the radiologic appearance of pneumococcal pneumonia. Empyema is a rare complication of pneumonia. An increased incidence of empyema in children was noted in some high-income countries following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 introduction, and this was attributed to pneumococcal serotypes not included in pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, especially 3 and 19A [24] . In the United States, evidence from a national hospital database suggests that the incidence of empyema increased 1.9-fold between 1996 and 2008 [25] . In Australia, the incidence rate ratio increased by 1.4 times when comparing the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (1998 to 2004) to the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (2005 to 2010) [26] . In Scotland, incidence of empyema in children rose from 6.5 per million between 1981 and 1998, to 66 per million in 2005 [27] . These trends have been reversed since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13. Data from the United States suggest that empyema decreased by 50% in children younger than 5 years [28] ; similarly, data from the United Kingdom and Scotland showed substantial reduction in pediatric empyema following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 introduction [29, 30] . Several national guidelines from high-income countries, as well as the WHO recommendations for low-and middleincome countries, recommend that chest radiography should not be routinely performed in children with ambulatory pneumonia [31] [32] [33] . Indications for chest radiography include hospitalization, severe hypoxemia or respiratory distress, failed initial antibiotic therapy, or suspicion for other diseases (tuberculosis, inhaled foreign body) or complications. However, point-of-care lung ultrasound is emerging as a promising modality for diagnosing childhood pneumonia [34] . In addition to the effect on radiologic pneumonia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from viral-associated pneumonia, probably by reducing bacterial-viral co-infections resulting in severe disease and hospitalization [35] . An analysis of ecological and observational studies of pneumonia incidence in different age groups soon after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 in Canada, Italy, Australia, Poland and the United States showed decreases in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations ranging from 15% to 65% [36] . In the United States after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 replaced pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, there was a further 17% decrease in hospitalizations for pneumonia among children eligible for the vaccination, and a further 12% decrease among unvaccinated adults [28] . A systematic review of etiology studies prior to availability of new conjugate vaccines confirmed S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type B as the most important bacterial causes of pneumonia, with Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae associated with some severe cases. Respiratory syncytial virus was the leading viral cause, identified in 15-40% of pneumonia cases, followed by influenza A and B, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus [37] . More recent meta-analyses of etiology data suggest a changing pathogen profile, with increasing recognition that clinical pneumonia is caused by the sequential or concurrent interaction of more than one organism. Severe disease in particular is often caused by multiple pathogens. With high coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination, viral pathogens increasingly predominate [38] . In recent case-control studies, at least one virus was detected in 87% of clinical pneumonia cases in South Africa [39] , while viruses were detected in 81% of radiologic pneumonia cases in Sweden [40] . In a large multi-center study in the United States, viral pathogens were detected in 73% of children hospitalized with radiologic pneumonia, while bacteria were detected in only 15% of cases [41] . A meta-analysis of 23 case-control studies of viral etiology in radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children, completed up to 2014, reported good evidence of causal attribution for respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [42] . However there was no consistent evidence that many other commonly described viruses, including rhinovirus, adenovirus, bocavirus and coronavirus, were more commonly isolated from cases than from controls. Further attribution of bacterial etiology is difficult because it is often not possible to distinguish colonizing from pathogenic bacteria when they are isolated from nasal specimens [43] . Another etiology is pertussis. In the last decade there has also been a resurgence in pertussis cases, especially in highincome countries [44] . Because pertussis immunity after acellular pertussis vaccination is less long-lasting than immunity after wild-type infection or whole-cell vaccination, many women of child-bearing age have waning pertussis antibody levels. Their infants might therefore be born with low transplacental anti-pertussis immunoglobulin G levels, making them susceptible to pertussis infection before completion of the primary vaccination series [45] . In 2014, more than 40,000 pertussis cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States; in some states, population-based incidence rates are higher than at any time in the last 70 years [44] . In contrast, most low-and middleincome countries use whole-cell pertussis vaccines and the numbers of pertussis cases in those countries were stable or decreasing until 2015 [46] . However recent evidence from South Africa (where the acellular vaccine is used) shows an appreciable incidence of pertussis among infants presenting with acute pneumonia: 2% of clinical pneumonia cases among infants enrolled in a birth cohort were caused by pertussis [39] , and 3.7% of infants and young children presenting to a tertiary academic hospital had evidence of pertussis infection [47] . Similarly, childhood tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-and middle-income countries, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increasingly been recognized as a pathogen in acute pneumonia in children living in high tuberculosis-prevalence settings. Postmortem studies of children dying from acute respiratory illness have commonly reported M. tuberculosis [48, 49] . A recent systematic review of tuberculosis as a comorbidity of childhood pneumonia reported culture-confirmed disease in about 8% of cases [50] . Because intrathoracic tuberculosis disease is only culture-confirmed in a minority of cases, the true burden could be even higher; tuberculosis could therefore be an important contributor to childhood pneumonia incidence and mortality in high-prevalence areas. Childhood pneumonia and clinically severe disease result from a complex interaction of host and environmental risk factors [37] . Because of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination for prevention of radiologic and clinical pneumonia, incomplete or inadequate vaccination must be considered as a major preventable risk factor for childhood pneumonia. Other risk factors include low birth weight, which is associated with 3.2 times increased odds of severe pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.8 times increased odds in high-income countries [51] . Similarly, lack of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4 months of life increases odds of severe pneumonia by 2.7 times in low-and middle-income countries and 1.3 times in highincome countries. Markers of undernutrition are strong risk factors for pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries only, with highly significant odds ratios for underweight for age (4.5), stunting (2.6) and wasting (2.8) . Household crowding has uniform risk, with odds ratios between 1.9 and 2.3 in both low-and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Indoor air pollution from use of solid or biomass fuels increases odds of pneumonia by 1.6 times; lack of measles vaccination by the end of the first year of age increases odds of pneumonia by 1.8 times [51] . It is estimated that the prevalence of these critical risk factors in low-and middle-income countries decreased by 25% between 2000 and 2010, contributing to reductions in pneumonia incidence and mortality in low-and middle-income countries, even in countries where conjugate vaccines have not been available [3] . The single strongest risk factor for pneumonia is HIV infection, which is especially prevalent in children in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-infected children have 6 times increased odds of developing severe pneumonia or of death compared to HIV-uninfected children [52] . Since the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, there is a growing population of HIV-exposed children who are uninfected; their excess risk of pneumonia, compared to HIV unexposed children, has been described as 1.3-to 3.4-fold higher [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination have been effective tools to decrease pneumonia incidence, severity and mortality [58, 59] . However, equitable coverage and access to vaccines remains sub-optimal. By the end of 2015, Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination had been introduced in 73 countries, with global coverage estimated at 68%. However, inequities are still apparent among regions: in the Americas coverage is estimated at 90%, while in the Western Pacific it is only 25%. By 2015, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination had been introduced into 54 countries, with global coverage of 35% for three doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination for infant populations [60] . To address this issue, the WHO's Global Vaccine Access Plan initiative was launched to make life-saving vaccines more equitably available. In addition to securing guarantees for financing of vaccines, the program objectives include building political will in low-and middle-income countries to commit to immunization as a priority, social marketing to individuals and communities, strengthening health systems and promoting relevant local research and development innovations [61] . Maternal vaccination to prevent disease in the youngest infants has been shown to be effective for tetanus, influenza and pertussis [62] . Influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe, provides reasonable maternal protection against influenza, and also protects infants for a limited period from confirmed influenza infection (vaccine efficacy 63% in Bangladesh [63] and 50.4% in South Africa [64] ). However as antibody levels drop sharply after birth, infant protection does not persist much beyond 8 weeks [65] . Recently respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to be safe and immunogenic, and a phase-3 clinical trial of efficacy at preventing respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants is under way [66] . Within a decade, respiratory syncytial virus in infancy might be vaccine-preventable, with further decreases in pneumonia incidence, morbidity and mortality [67] . Improved access to health care, better nutrition and improved living conditions might contribute to further decreases in childhood pneumonia burden. The WHO Integrated Global Action Plan for diarrhea and pneumonia highlights many opportunities to protect, prevent and treat children [68] . Breastfeeding rates can be improved by programs that combine education and counseling interventions in homes, communities and health facilities, and by promotion of baby-friendly hospitals [69] . Improved home ventilation, cleaner cooking fuels and reduction in exposure to cigarette smoke are essential interventions to reduce the incidence and severity of pneumonia [70, 71] . Prevention of pediatric HIV is possible by providing interventions to prevent mother-to-child transmission [72] . Early infant HIV testing and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can substantially reduce the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-infected children [73] . Community-based interventions reduce pneumonia mortality and have the indirect effect of improved-careseeking behavior [58] . If these cost-effective interventions were scaled up, it is estimated that 67% of pneumonia deaths in lowand middle-income countries could be prevented by 2025 [58] . Case management of pneumonia is a strategy by which severity of disease is classified as severe or non-severe. All children receive early, appropriate oral antibiotics, and severe cases are referred for parenteral antibiotics. When implemented in highburden areas before the availability of conjugate vaccines, case management as part of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness was associated with a 27% decrease in overall child mortality, and 42% decrease in pneumonia-specific mortality [74] . However the predominance of viral causes of pneumonia and low case fatality have prompted concern about overuse of antibiotics. Several randomized controlled trials comparing oral antibiotics to placebo for non-severe pneumonia have been performed [75] [76] [77] and others are ongoing [78] . In two studies, performed in Denmark and in India, outcomes of antibiotic and placebo treatments were equivalent [76, 77] . In the third study, in Pakistan, there was a non-significant 24% vs. 20% rate of failure in the placebo group, which was deemed to be non-equivalent to the antibiotic group [75] . Furthermore, because WHO-classified non-severe pneumonia and bronchiolitis might be considered within a spectrum of lower respiratory disease, many children with clinical pneumonia could actually have viral bronchiolitis, for which antibiotics are not beneficial [79] . This has been reflected in British [33] and Spanish [31] national pneumonia guidelines, which do not recommend routine antibiotic treatment for children younger than 2 years with evidence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination who present with non-severe pneumonia. The United States' national guidelines recommend withholding antibiotics in children up to age 5 years presenting with non-severe pneumonia [32] . However, given the high mortality from pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, the lack of easy access to care, and the high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease, revised World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines still recommend antibiotic treatment for all children who meet the WHO pneumonia case definitions [80] . Use of supplemental oxygen is life-saving, but this is not universally available in low-and middle-income countries; it is estimated that use of supplemental oxygen systems could reduce mortality of children with hypoxic pneumonia by 20% [81] . Identifying systems capacity to increase availability of oxygen in health facilities, and identifying barriers to further implementation are among the top 15 priorities for future childhood pneumonia research [82] . However, up to 81% of pneumonia deaths in 2010 occurred outside health facilities [5] , so there are major challenges with access to health services and health-seeking behavior of vulnerable populations. Identifying and changing the barriers to accessing health care is an important area with the potential to impact the survival and health of the most vulnerable children [82] . Much progress has been made in decreasing deaths caused by childhood pneumonia. Improved socioeconomic status and vaccinations, primarily the conjugate vaccines (against Haemophilus influenzae and pneumococcus), have led to substantial reductions in the incidence and severity of childhood pneumonia. Stronger strategies to prevent and manage HIV have reduced HIV-associated pneumonia deaths. However, despite the substantial changes in incidence, etiology and radiology globally, there remain inequities in access to care and availability of effective interventions, especially in low-and middle-income countries. Effective interventions need to be more widely available and new interventions developed for the residual burden of childhood pneumonia.

What is responsible for the reduction of radiologic pneumonia?

Improved Pharmacological and Structural Properties of HIV Fusion Inhibitor AP3 over Enfuvirtide: Highlighting Advantages of Artificial Peptide Strategy https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4541410/ SHA: f2fcc16391f946c99717b63ec9a24e5384aac381 Authors: Zhu, Xiaojie; Zhu, Yun; Ye, Sheng; Wang, Qian; Xu, Wei; Su, Shan; Sun, Zhiwu; Yu, Fei; Liu, Qi; Wang, Chao; Zhang, Tianhong; Zhang, Zhenqing; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Xu, Jianqing; Du, Lanying; Liu, Keliang; Lu, Lu; Zhang, Rongguang; Jiang, Shibo Date: 2015-08-19 DOI: 10.1038/srep13028 License: cc-by Abstract: Enfuvirtide (T20), is the first HIV fusion inhibitor approved for treatment of HIV/AIDS patients who fail to respond to the current antiretroviral drugs. However, its clinical application is limited because of short half-life, drug resistance and cross-reactivity with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-infected patients. Using an artificial peptide strategy, we designed a peptide with non-native protein sequence, AP3, which exhibited potent antiviral activity against a broad spectrum of HIV-1 strains, including those resistant to T20, and had remarkably longer in vivo half-life than T20. While the preexisting antibodies in HIV-infected patients significantly suppressed T20’s antiviral activity, these antibodies neither recognized AP3, nor attenuated its anti-HIV-1 activity. Structurally different from T20, AP3 could fold into single-helix and interact with gp41 NHR. The two residues, Met and Thr, at the N-terminus of AP3 form a hook-like structure to stabilize interaction between AP3 and NHR helices. Therefore, AP3 has potential for further development as a new HIV fusion inhibitor with improved antiviral efficacy, resistance profile and pharmacological properties over enfuvirtide. Meanwhile, this study highlighted the advantages of artificially designed peptides, and confirmed that this strategy could be used in developing artificial peptide-based viral fusion inhibitors against HIV and other enveloped viruses. Text: The sequences of gp41 NHR-or CHR-derived peptides. The residues corresponding to the NHR pocket region are marked in red. The residues for the PBD are marked in blue, and the MT-hook residues adjacent to the N terminus of PBD are marked in green. 5HRu peptide consists of 5 copies of artificial sequence template (AEELAKK) underlined. The mutant residues in PBD of AP2 and AP3 were highlighted in pink. (b) The inhibitory activity of AP1, AP2, AP3 and T20 on infection by HIV-1 IIIB (subtype B, X4) in MT-2 cells (left panel) by HIV-1 Bal (subtype B, R5) in M7 cells (right panel). Each sample was tested in triplicate and the experiment was repeated twice. The data are presented as means ± SD. Scientific RepoRts | 5:13028 | DOi: 10 .1038/srep13028 To address these obstacles, many efforts have been made to optimize T20 and gp41 CHR-derived peptides. Some of these peptides have better inhibitory activities against T20-resistant strains and/or longer half-life than T20. However, they still have the problem to cross-react with the preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV-infected patients because they contain some native CHR sequences. Based on the universal artificial peptide template of 5HRu, we previously designed the artificial peptides of AP1 (PBD-m4HR) and AP2 (PBDtrp-m4HR), and have made preliminary research on their inhibitory activity against HIV-1 Env-mediated cell-cell fusion 16 . In the present study, we designed a new artificial peptide, AP3 (Fig. 1a) , aiming to apply the "M-T hook" structure to stabilize the interaction of the artificial peptide with the hydrophobic pocket on the gp41 NHR trimer 17, 18 . After comprehensively studying its antiviral activity, biochemical property, crystal structure, functional mechanism, in vivo half-life and, for the first time, the effect of preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV-infected patients, we found that the newly designed artificial peptide, AP3, exhibited improved antiviral activity, drug resistance profile and pharmacological properties over T20. Particularly, the preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV-infected patients did not suppress, but enhanced the anti-HIV-1 activity of AP3. These results suggest that AP3 has potential for development as a new anti-HIV drug and confirm that this strategy can be used for designing artificial antiviral peptides against other enveloped viruses, such as SARS-CoV 19 , MERS-CoV 20 , and paramyxovirus 21 . AP3 inhibited HIV-1 infection with higher potency than T20. Our previously designed artificial peptides AP1 and AP2 could inhibit HIV-1 Env-mediated cell-cell membrane fusion 16 . He and colleagues reported that adding two amino acids of Met and Thr to the N-terminus of a CHR-peptide could enhance their anti-HIV-1 activity 17, 18 . Here we designed a new artificial peptide, AP3, by adding Met and Thr to the N-terminus of AP2 (Fig. 1a) . We then compared AP3 with AP1, AP2 and T20 for their anti-HIV-1 activity against divergent HIV-1 strains, including the laboratory-adapted viruses, IIIB (subtype B, X4) and Bal (subtype B, R5), and a series of primary HIV-1 isolates, as well as the T20-resistant strains. As shown in Fig. 1b , AP3 exhibited higher inhibitory activities on infection by HIV-1 IIIB and HIV-1 Bal strains (IC 50 : 3.06 and 15.09 nM, respectively) than AP1 (IC 50 : 86.25 and 396.14 nM, respectively), AP2 (IC 50 : 23.05 and 49.95 nM, respectively), and T20 (IC 50 : 13.63 and 30.21 nM, respectively). The inhibitory activity of AP3 on infection by divergent primary HIV-1 isolates with distinct genotypes (subtypes A -E and group O) and phenotypes (R5 and X4) was also higher than that of AP2 and T20 (Table 1) . While T20 was not effective against T20-resistant HIV-1 strains at the concentration as high as 2,000 nM, AP3 could effectively inhibit infection of these strains with IC 50 in the range of 13 ~ 90 nM, which was about 2-to 4-fold more effective than AP2 (Table 1 ). These results indicate that the artificial peptide AP3 has remarkably improved anti-HIV-1 activity against a broad spectrum of HIV-1 strains, including T20resistant variants, over T20 and the artificial peptides AP1 and AP2. The preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients neither recognized AP3, nor attenuated its anti-HIV-1 activity. Previous studies have shown that the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients, including those cross-reacting with T20 and those specific for the binding sites of T20 in gp120 (e.g., the C1 and V3 loop regions) and gp41 (e.g., the NHR domain), could significantly block the fusion inhibitory activity of T20 14, 15 . Here we investigated the influence of preexisting antibodies against AP3 peptide. As shown in Fig. 2a , both T20 and C46 reacted with the antibodies in sera from five HIV-1-infected patients; however, none of the three artificial peptides AP1, AP2 and AP3 was recognized by the preexisting antibodies. The inhibitory activity of T20 on HIV-1 IIIB infection was reduced about 1.9-fold to > 3.6-fold in the presence of the sera from HIV-1-infected patients ( Fig. 2b and Supplementary Table S1), confirming that the preexisting antibodies in sera of HIV/AIDS patients can attenuate the anti-HIV-1 activity of T20 14, 15 . However, none of the artificial peptides in the present study showed significant decrease of anti-HIV-1 activity in the presence of patients' sera. Instead, the antiviral activity of AP3 increased in the presence of antisera from HIV-1-infected patients ( Fig. 2b and Supplementary Table S1), suggesting that anti-HIV-1 antibodies actually enhanced the anti-HIV-1 activity of AP3, possibly because the binding of the antibodies to some sites in gp120 or gp41 promote the interaction of AP3 with viral gp41 NHR region. AP3 had longer half-life than T20. Although T20 has shown efficacy in inhibiting HIV-1 infection, its major weakness lies in its short half-life in plasma (about 2 h) [22] [23] [24] . As a result, T20 has to be administered subcutaneously twice daily at 90 mg per dose, often causing serious injection-site reactions 25, 26 . Here, we performed pharmacokinetic studies by intravenous administration of AP3, AP2, and T20, respectively, to SD rat at a dose of 1 mg/kg, in order to compare their in vivo circulation time. As expected, T20 exhibited a shorter half-life and lower AUC (0-t) from systemic circulation, while AP3 and AP2 demonstrated much higher concentration and longer circulation time ( Table 2 ). The pharmacokinetic profiles of AP3 and AP2 fit a non-compartment model. The pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated with PK Solver. The in vivo elimination half-life of AP3 (t 1/2 = 6.02 h) was about 2.8-fold longer than that of T20 (t 1/2 = 1.57 h). This result provided the theoretical basis for reducing the injection frequency and dose of the fusion inhibitor, in conjugation with the improved antiviral potency of AP3. Therefore, replacement of T20 with AP3 may significantly reduce injection-site reactions and the drug cost, which would promote the clinical applications of the HIV fusion inhibitor in resource-poor regions or countries. AP3 was much more resistant than T20 to proteolytic degradation by proteinase K and rat liver homogenate. We compared the stability of T20 and AP3 in the presence of proteinase K (a broad-spectrum serine proteinase) and rat liver homogenate. After treatment with 20 ng/mL of proteinase K for 2 h at 37 °C, only 29% of the parental T20 peptide remained, as detected by LC-MS analysis. Under the same condition, AP3 retained 100% of its prototype (Fig. 3a ). In addition, AP3 showed a significantly enhanced in vitro metabolic stability over T20 in the presence of liver homogenate (Fig. 3b) . These results indicate that the artificial peptide AP3 is much more resistant to proteolytic degradation than the natural peptide T20, which may contribute to its significant longer in vivo half-life than T20 as described above. AP3 formed stable α-helical complex and block gp41 6-HB formation. To investigate the antiviral mechanism of AP3, the thermal stability of AP3/N36 complex was compared with that of AP1/N36, AP2/N36, T20/N36, and C34/N36 complexes by circular-dichroism (CD) spectroscopy 27 . Because T20 lacks the pocket-binding domain (PBD), the T20/N36 complex did not show a typical α -helical conformation, in consistence with our previous studies 8, 9 . Similar to the α -helicity of C34/N36 complex 3 , the AP1/N36, AP2/N36 and AP3/N36 complexes all formed a saddle-shaped negative peak at 208 nm and 222 nm, indicating their α -helical structures (Fig. 4a) Fig. 4b) , indicating that the α -helical complex formed by AP3 and N36 is the most stable among the four complexes. Then we compared the inhibitory activity of AP3 with that of AP1 and AP2 on 6-HB formation between C34 and N36. Since T20 cannot block 6-HB formation 8, 9 , we used a small-molecule HIV-1 fusion inhibitor, ADS-J1 28, 29 , to replace T20 as a control of 6-HB inhibition. As expected, ADS-J1 could effectively inhibit 6-HB formation with IC 50 of 2.75 μ M 8, 9, [27] [28] [29] . AP3 was highly effective against 6-HB formation in a dose-dependent manner with an IC 50 value of 0.24 μ M, about 30-and 15-fold more potent than AP1 and AP2, respectively (Fig. 4c) , confirming that AP3 can potently block gp41 6-HB fusion core formation, thus inhibiting HIV-1 fusion with the target cell membrane. Structural basis for the potent fusion inhibitory activity of the artificial peptide AP3. To elucidate the molecular determinants of these artificial peptides, we successfully solved all three complex structures of AP1/AP2/AP3 peptides binding with gp41 NHR. For AP1 and AP2, an optimized linker Each sample was tested in triplicate and the experiment was repeated twice. The data are presented as means ± SD. *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001. "SGGRGG" was used to assemble the NHR and the artificial peptide into a single recombinant protein (N36-L6-AP1 or N36-L6-AP2). However, a similar strategy failed on the crystallization of AP3; therefore, we decided to cocrystallize the synthetic peptide N45 and AP3 peptide, and eventually the complex crystals were obtained. Interestingly, the crystals of three different inhibitors belong to three distinctive space groups: P2 1 for N36-L6-AP1, R32 for N36-L6-AP2, and P6 3 for N45/AP3. As expected, the NHR portions in three structures all form a trimeric core, while the AP1, AP2 or AP3 portion folds into a single-helix conformation and binds to NHR-trimer to form a typical 6-HB, similar to that of the HIV-1 gp41 core structure formed by the native CHR peptide C34 and N36 (Fig. 5a) . Also, the conserved hydrophobic residues, such as W43, W46 and I50, in the artificial peptides were deeply buried into the hydrophobic Table 2 . Pharmacokinetic parameters of AP2, AP3 and T20 following intravenous administration at 1 mg/kg in male SD rats (n = 2). Figure 3 . Sensitivity of AP3 and T20 to proteolytic degradation by proteinase K and rat liver homogenate. (a) After digestion by proteinase K at pH 7.2 and (b) rat liver homogenate, the residual amount of AP3 and T20 was detected by LC-MS analysis. The experiment was performed in triplicate and the data are presented as means ± SD. The inhibition of AP1, AP2, AP3, T20 and ADS-J1 against 6-HB formation between N36 and C34 was detected by ELISA using the 6-HB-specific mAb NC-1. Each sample was tested in triplicate, and the data are presented as means ± SD. grooves formed between each pair of NHR helices, similar to the corresponding residues of W628, W631 and I635 in the native gp41 CHR (Fig. 5b) . AP peptides exhibited better affinity against gp41 natural CHR. In C34, which contains the natural CHR sequence from W628 to L661, no strong interaction between I642 and Q565 in the viral gp41 NHR-CHR complex was found (Fig. 5c) . However, in the corresponding sequence (from W43 to K76) of AP1 and AP2, a hydrogen bond was established between S57 (corresponding to I642 in CHR) and Q18 (corresponding to Q565 in NHR) in N36-L6-AP1, N36-L6-AP2 and N45/AP3. Thus, S57 in AP1/AP2/AP3 plays a role in stabilizing the interactions between the artificial peptide inhibitor and its NHR target, resulting in their stronger binding affinity. Moreover, in NHR-CHR, L567 and L568 on two adjacent NHRs form a hydrophobic groove, in which T639 is buried (Supplementary Fig. S1a ). However, in N36-L6-AP1, N36-L6-AP2 and N45/AP3, I54 (corresponding to T639 in CHR) can strongly bind to L20 and L21 through fully hydrophobic side chain interactions. Similarly, the interaction of I64 (corresponding to S659 in CHR) with L10 and L11 (corresponding to L567 and L568 in NHR, respectively) in N36-L6-AP1, N36-L6-AP2 and N45/AP3 has been significantly enhanced ( Supplementary Fig. S1b ). Like the gp41 CHR helix, the helices of AP1, AP2 and AP3 also have two different sides, a hydrophobic side facing toward the NHR and a hydrophilic one facing outward. It is expected that the enhancement of the hydrophilicity of the exposed side of the inhibitors can increase their antiviral activity and solubility. To achieve this goal, the amino acid residues with hydrophobicity, or low hydrophilicity, like N637, S640, L641 and S644 in CHR, were changed to the amino acid residues with high hydrophilicity, like E52, K55, K56 and E59 in AP1, AP2 and AP3, respectively. Moreover, the hydrophobic residue M629 in CHR was replaced with a hydrophilic residue E44 in AP2 and AP3 ( Supplementary Fig. S2 ). These hydrophilic residues, such as glutamic acid and lysine, can increase the solubility of whole peptide and, hence, stabilize the complex formed by the inhibitor and its target. It has been proved that the EE-KK double salt bridge can stabilize helix conformation 30 . We have identified this kind of interaction between i and i + 3 or i + 4 positions on the three complex structures. In N36-L6-AP1, R48 interacts with E45 and E52 to form a salt bridge network. In N36-L6-AP2, E45 interacts with K48, and E52 binds to K56, while in N45/AP3, K69 binds to E66 ( Supplementary Fig. S2 ). These strong salt bridges formed by the oppositely charged residues stabilize AP peptide conformation, bringing its inhibitory effect into full play. As previously reported, addition of the "M-T hook" to the CHR peptides C34 and sifuvertide could dramatically improve the anti-HIV-1 activity 17, 18 . As expected, the N-terminal Met and Thr of AP3 forms a hook-like structure (Fig. 5d) . The hydrophobic methionine side chain of M41 accommodates the groove between AP3 and NHR helices, capping the hydrophobic pocket. This interaction leads to a series of conformational changes. The main chain of AP3 at W43 moves 1.91 Å closer to NHR compared to AP2 (Supplementary Fig. S3 ). The side chain of W43 in AP3 flips around 90 degrees and is buried deeper than that of AP2. The side chain of E44 turns back to interact to D47, but the E45 side chain turns back from K48 and interacts with T42. Therefore, this M-T hook structure could further stabilize the binding between AP3 and NHR target. Enfuvirtide, also known as T20, was approved by the U.S. FDA as the first HIV entry inhibitor-based antiviral drug for use with other anti-HIV medicines to treat HIV-1 infected adults and children at ages 6-16 years 23,31,32 (http://www.fuzeon.com). Although T20 is an indispensable anti-HIV drug for HIV/ AIDS patients who have failed to respond to the current antiretroviral therapeutics, its shortcomings have limited its clinical application. T20 has lower anti-HIV activity and shorter half-life than other CHR peptides containing PBD, such as C34 and C38 8, 9, 33 . In addition, T20-resistant HIV-1 variants emerged shortly (e.g., 14 days) after its use in patients 34 . Most of the T20-resistant viruses carried mutations in the GIV motif (residues 36-45: GIVQQQNNLL) in the gp41 NHR domain 10, [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] . The lack of PBD contributes to the major weaknesses of T20 described above. Since the conserved hydrophobic pocket in the gp41 NHR-trimer plays a critical role in stabilizing the interaction between the gp41 NHR and CHR and formation of the fusogenic 6-HB core 1, 39, 40 , the PBD-containing CHR-peptide, like C34, can bind to viral gp41 trimer more strongly and stably, thus possessing more potent anti-HIV activity than T20, a CHR peptide without PBD 8, 9 . In the absence of PBD, T20 mainly interacts with the middle region of the NHR domain containing the GIV motif. Therefore, a virus with mutations in this motif is generally resistant to T20 10, [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] . Compared with other anti-HIV drugs, another weakness of T20 is its cross-reactivity with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients. Besides gp41, T20 could also bind to some regions in gp120. The preexisting antibodies specific for the T20's binding sites in gp120 and gp41 may indirectly suppress the anti-HIV activity of T20 14, 15 . Addition of PBD to the N-terminus of T20, such as T-1249, could significantly improve the anti-HIV-1 potency, half-life and drug-resistance profile 33, [41] [42] [43] . Addition of M-T hook structure to the N-terminus of a PBD-containing CHR-peptides, such as MT-C34 or MT-SFT, could further increase the anti-HIV-1 activity of the corresponding CHR-peptides 17, 18 . Deletion of the GIV-motif-binding domain from a CHR-peptide, such as CP621-652 and CP32M, is another effective approach to increase the genetic barrier to drug resistance 44, 45 . However, none of the above approaches is effective in preventing the cross-reaction of T20 with the preexisting anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV/AIDS patients, since the above-modified peptides mainly contain the native sequences of the HIV-1 gp41 CHR domain. Our previous studies have shown that AP1 and AP2, artificial peptides with non-native protein sequences, could form coiled-coil structure to interact with gp41 NHR and inhibit HIV-1 Env-mediated cell-cell fusion 16 . In the present study, we designed a new artificial peptide, AP3, by adding M-T hook structure to the N-terminus of AP2 (Fig. 1a) , followed by investigating the influence of preexisting anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV-infected patients on AP3, using AP1, AP2 and T20 as controls. We demonstrated that sera of HIV-infected patients could bind to T20 and significantly reduce its potency against HIV-1. However, these same serum samples did not interact with the three artificial peptides and hardly impaired their antiviral activity. Surprisingly, the antibodies in the sera could even enhance AP3's anti-HIV-1 activity (Fig. 2a,b and Supplementary Table S1 ). These results confirmed, for the first time, that replacement of the native viral sequence in T20 with an artificial sequence is an effective approach to overcome a key shortcoming of T20 whereby its anti-HIV activity could be attenuated by preexisting anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV/AIDS patients. It is worthwhile to explore why the antibodies in the sera is able to enhance the anti-HIV-1 activity of AP3. Our recent study has demonstrated that T20's anti-HIV-1 activity is enhanced by a non-neutralizing antibody directed against the NHR domain of the HIV-1 gp41 46 . We thus hypothesize that some of the anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV/AIDS patients may bind to a site in NHR domain adjacent to the AP3's binding region, resulting in increased interaction between AP3 and NHR-trimer and enhanced antiviral activity of AP3. We then compared the inhibitory activity of AP3 with M-T hook and T20/AP2 without M-T hook on infection by divergent HIV-1 strains. AP3 was more effective than either AP2 or T20 in inhibiting infection by the laboratory-adapted strains and the primary isolates of HIV-1, including those resistant to T20 (Fig. 1b, Table 1 ). One may question whether AP3 can also induce drug-resistant viruses in patients if it is used in clinics to treat HIV-infected patients. We believe that AP3 is expected to have much higher genetic barrier to resistance than T20 because AP3 contains PBD, while T20 lacks PBD. Dwyer et al. 33 used T2544, a PBD-containing CHR-peptide, to carry out a passaging experiment, using T20 as a control. They demonstrated that T20 could induce a mutant virus with high resistance (81-fold) to T20 in about 1 month, while T2544 failed to induce a resistant strain in more than 2 months in culture. After extending the passaging experiment for almost 8 months, they identified one strain with a weak resistance (8.3-fold) to T-2544, and the related mutation sites were not in the gp41 pocket region, suggesting that the PBD-containing CHR-peptides, including AP3, may have difficulty to induce drug-resistance. AP3 also had longer half-life than T20 (Table 2) , possibly because the artificial peptide AP3 is less sensitive to the proteolytic enzymes than T20 with native viral protein sequence. Removal of the proteolytic enzymes' cleavage sites in AP3 peptide is expected to further extend its half-life. These results confirmed that replacement of native protein sequence with artificial sequence and addition of the M-T hook to the PBD-containing peptide is a sound strategy for designing HIV fusion inhibitory peptides with improved antiviral activity and pharmacological properties when compared to T20. Since the three-dimensional structures of AP peptides had not been investigated before the present study, the optimization of these artificial peptide inhibitors could not be performed rationally. Our structural studies of the artificial peptides AP1/AP2/AP3 in complex with NHR showed that AP peptides, just like the CHR peptide C34, could bind to gp41 NHR to form a canonical 6-HB structure (Fig. 5a) . It is well known that a deep hydrophobic pocket exists in each groove on the surface of the viral gp41 NHR trimer. The hydrophobic residues I635, W631 and W628 in the gp41 CHR bind with the hydrophobic residues in the wall of this pocket, resulting in the formation of stable 6-HB by the strong interaction between CHR and NHR. This important feature has been well preserved in the AP1/AP2/AP3 6-HB structures (Fig. 5b) , which may account for the potent HIV-1 fusion inhibitory activities of these artificial peptides. A new hydrogen bond, which was established between S57 and Q18 in AP1/AP2/AP3 complexes, does not exist in the viral gp41 CHR-NHR complex, suggesting that S57 may play an important role in stabilizing the interactions between the peptide and NHR, resulting in binding affinities of AP1/AP2/AP3 that are stronger than those of HIV-1 gp41 CHR to NHR. Furthermore, the EE-KK double salt bridge formed between the i and i + 4 positions in the AP1/AP2/AP3 structures could stabilize helix conformation and increase the inhibitory effect of these peptides. Compared with AP1, triple-site mutations were introduced in AP2 and AP3, i.e. M44E, R48K and E49K. Those substitutions not only increase solubility of the peptide, but also trigger a series of rearrangements of certain intrahelical salt bridges to improve the stability of CHR helix structure and HIV-1 fusion inhibitory activity. M-T hook was previously demonstrated to be an effective step toward increasing the stable interaction between a CHR-peptide and the HIV-1 gp41 pocket 17, 18 . Therefore, AP2 was further optimized by incorporating Met and Thr at its N-terminus. CD spectroscopy and thermal denaturation results both indicate that the incorporation of M-T hook contribute to the formation of a more stable 6-HB core structure between AP3 (M-T hook-optimized AP2) and N36. In addition, the EE-KK double salt bridge formed between i and i + 4 positions in the N36-L6-AP3 structure contributed to increased CHR helix and 6-HB stability, resulting in improved potency of AP3, as has been noted in studies of CHR-peptides with EE-KK double mutations 30, 33, 47, 48 . Also, the HIV-1 fusion activity and half-life of AP2 may have been strengthened and extended, respectively, by the addition of M-T hook in the design of AP3. In conclusion, AP3, an artificial peptide with both PBD and M-T hook structures, exhibited improved anti-HIV-1 activity and drug-resistance profile, as well as prolonged half-life. Moreover, it did not react with the preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV/AIDS patients. Consequently, its antiviral activity Scientific RepoRts | 5:13028 | DOi: 10.1038/srep13028 was not significantly affected by these antibodies. Therefore, AP3 shows promise as a candidate for further development as a new HIV fusion inhibitor for clinical use. This study also provides important structure and activity information for the rational design of novel artificially peptide inhibitors. Besides, our results highlighted the advantages of artificially designed peptides and confirmed that this strategy could be widely used in development of artificial peptide-based virus fusion inhibitors against HIV-1 and other enveloped viruses with class I membrane fusion proteins, such as SARS-CoV 19 , MERS-CoV 20 , and paramyxovirus 49 . Ethics statement. This study did not involve human experimentation; the only human materials used were serum samples obtained from HIV-1-infected individuals with the approval by the Ethics Committee of the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University (Protocol No. SPHCC-125-2). The methods were carried out in accordance with the approved guidelines. All of these sera samples came from adults; no minor was involved in this study. Written informed consent for the use of the clinical specimens was obtained from all patients involved in this study. Peptide synthesis. A panel of peptides (Fig. 1a) , including T20, C34, C46, AP1, AP2, AP3, as well as NHR-derived N-peptides, N36 and N45, were synthesized with a standard solid-phase FMOC method, as described previously 8, 50 . All peptides were acetylated at the N terminus and amidated at the C terminus. The peptides were found to be about 95% pure by HPLC and were identified by mass spectrometry (Perseptive Biosystems, Framingham, MA, USA). Concentrations of the peptides were determined by UV absorbance and a theoretically calculated molar-extinction coefficient based on tryptophan and tyrosine residues. Qualification assay. Chromatographic analyses were performed using an ODS-C8 column (5 μ m, 100 mm × 2.0 mm ID) kept at ambient temperature. The mobile phase was composed of acetonitrile-water-formic acid in the ratio of 50:50:0.1 (v/v/v) at a flow rate of 0.3 mL/min. The sample injection volume was 10 μ L. Acetonitrile was HPLC grade, and other chemical reagents and solvents were analytical grade. A Thermo TSQ Quantum Discovery MAX triple-quadruple tandem mass spectrometer equipped with ESI source (San Jose, CA) and Surveyor LC pump were used for LC-MS analysis. Data acquisition and data processing were performed by using Xcalibur software and LCQuan 2.0 data analysis program (Thermo Finnigan), respectively. Optimized MS parameters were as below: 4800 V spray voltage, 40.0 psi sheath gas pressure, 1.0 psi auxiliary valve flow, and 300 °C of capillary temperature. When running collision-induced dissociation (CID), the pressure was set to 1.5 mTorr. The selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode was used for AP3 while the selected ion monitoring (SIM) mode was preformed for T20. The following transitions were recorded: m/z 670.5 for AP3, m/z 1498.6 for T20. The masses of synthetic peptides T20, AP1, AP2 and AP3 were determined by MALDI-TOF-MS (Supplementary Fig. S4 and S5 ). Expression and purification of fusion protein N36-L6-AP1 and N36-L6-AP2. Using overlapping PCR, the DNA fragment encoding AP1 or AP2 peptide was attached to the 3′-end of the cDNA of gp41 NHR ("N36", 546-581), with a short linker ("L6", SGGRGG) between them. Then, the whole sequence was subcloned into the pET-28a vector (Novagen, USA) with an artificial SUMO-tag between the N-terminal His-tag and the target protein. The pET-28a-SUMO-N36-L6-AP1-or pET-28a-SUMO-N36-L6-AP2-transformed E. coli cells were induced by adding 1 mM IPTG and incubating overnight at 16 °C. Fusion protein was purified by Ni-NTA affinity resin (Qiagen, Valencia, CA, USA), and the His-SUMO-tag was cleaved off by Ulp1 enzyme treatment at 4 °C for 2 h. The purified N36-L6-AP1 or N36-L6-AP2 was applied onto a Superdex-75 gel filtration column (GE Healthcare, Piscataway, NJ, USA). Fractions containing N36-L6-AP1 or N36-L6-AP2 trimer were collected and concentrated to different concentrations by ultrafiltration. Crystallization, data collection, and structure determination. The fusion protein N36-L6-AP1 was crystallized at 16 °C using the hanging drop, vapor-diffusion method. The drops were set on a siliconized cover clip by equilibrating a mixture containing 1 μ l protein solution (25 mg/ml N36-L6-AP1 trimer in 20 mM Tris-HCl pH 8.0 and 150 mM NaCl) and 1 μ l reservoir solution (0.1 M Tris-HCl pH 8.5, 32% (w/v) PEG3350, and 0.2 M MgCl 2 ) against a 400 μ l reservoir solution. After one week, single crystals formed and were flash frozen by liquid nitrogen for future data collection. Fusion protein N36-L6-AP2 was crystallized in a similar way with a different reservoir solution (0.1 M Tris-HCl pH 8.0, 34% (w/v) PEG3350, and 0.2 M MgCl 2 ). To obtain the complex crystal of AP3 and NHR, synthesized AP3 was first mixed with peptide N45 at 1:1 molar ratio and then applied onto a Superdex-75 gel filtration column (GE Healthcare, Piscataway, NJ, USA) to isolate the formed 6-HB. Fractions containing N45/AP3 trimer were collected and concentrated to 30 mg/ml, then crystallized at 16 °C using the hanging drop, vapor-diffusion method.The drops were set on a siliconized cover clip by equilibrating a mixture containing 1 μ l protein solution (20 mM Tris-HCl pH 8.0 and 150 mM NaCl) and 1 μ l reservoir solution (0.2 M Ammonium Sulfate, 0.1 M Bis-Tris pH 6.5, and 25% w/v PEG 3350) against a 400 μ l reservoir solution. After 3 days, single crystals formed and were flash frozen by liquid nitrogen for future data collection. The datasets of N36-L6-AP1 were collected at 100 K at beamline 19-ID of the Advanced Photon Source (Argonne National Laboratory, USA). The datasets of N36-L6-AP2 were collected on an in-house x-ray source (MicroMax 007 x-ray generator, Rigaku, Japan) at the Institute of Biophysics, ChineseAcademy of Sciences. The datasets of AP3/N45 complex crystals were collected at beamline BL-19U1 of the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility, China. X-ray diffraction data were integrated and scaled using the HKL2000 program 51 . The phasing problem of all three structures was solved by the molecular replacement method using PHENIX.phaser 52 with a crystal structure of HIV gp41 NHR-CHR (PDB entry: 1SZT) as a search model. The final models were manually adjusted in COOT 53 and refined with PHENIX.refine 54 . All coordinates were deposited in the Protein Data Bank (N36-L6-AP1: 5CMU; N36-L6-AP2: 5CN0; and N45/AP3: 5CMZ). The statistics of data collection and structure refinement are given in Supplementary Table S2 . Determination of the cross-reactivity of the native and artificial peptides with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients by sandwich ELISA. A sandwich ELISA was conducted to determine the cross-reactivity of the peptides with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients. T20, C46, AP1, AP2 and AP3 were coated onto the wells of 96-well polystyrene plates (Costar, Corning Inc., Corning, NY) at 10 μ g/ml. The wells were then blocked with 1% gelatin, followed by addition of 50 μ l of serially diluted sera from HIV-1-infected patients and incubation at 37 °C for 1 h. Then, HRP-labeled goat-anti-human IgG (Abcam, UK) and TMB were added sequentially. A450 was determined with an ELISA reader (Ultra 384, Tecan). patients. Inhibition of peptides on HIV-1 IIIB (subtype B, X4)infection in the presence of HIV-1-infected patients' sera was determined as previously described 55 . Briefly, each peptide was mixed with serially diluted serum from an HIV-1-infected patient at room temperature for 30 min. Next, the mixture of peptide/serum and HIV-1 (100 TCID 50 ) were added to MT-2 cells (1 × 10 5 /ml) in RPMI 1640 medium containing 10% FBS. After incubation at 37 °C overnight, the culture supernatants were replaced with fresh culture medium. On the fourth day post-infection, culture supernatants were collected for detection of p24 antigen by ELISA. CD Spectroscopy and Thermal Midpoint Analysis. The secondary structure of AP1, AP2 or AP3 peptides mixed with N36 was analyzed by CD spectroscopy as previously described 56 . Briefly, each peptide or peptide mixture was dissolved in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS: 50 mM sodium phosphate and 150 mM NaCl, pH 7.2) at the final concentration of 10 μ M and incubated at 37 °C for 30 min before cooling down to 4 °C. The CD spectra of each sample were acquired on a Jasco spectropolarimeter (Model J-815, Jasco Inc., Japan) at 4 °C using a 5 nm bandwidth, 0.1 nm resolution, 0.1 cm path length, and an average time of 5.0 sec. Spectra were corrected by the subtraction of a blank corresponding to the solvent composition of each sample. Thermal midpoint analysis was used to determine the temperature at which 50% of the 6-HB formed by the CHR and NHR would decompose. It was monitored at 222 nm from 4 °C to 98 °C by applying a thermal gradient of 5 °C/min. The melting curve was smoothed, and the midpoint of the thermal unfolding transition (Tm) values was calculated using Jasco software utilities as described above. Inhibition of gp41 six-helix bundle formation by sandwich ELISA. Inhibition of gp41 six-helix bundle formation by a testing peptide was determined with a sandwich ELISA described previously 57 . Briefly, a testing peptide (ADS-J1 as a control) at graded concentrations was preincubated with peptide N36 (1 μ M) at 37 °C for 30 min, followed by the addition of peptide C34 (1 μ M) and incubation at 37 °C for another 30 min. The mixture was added to a 96-well polystyrene plate (Costar, Corning Inc., Corning, NY) precoated with anti-N36/C34 antibodies (2 μ g/ml) purified from mouse antisera specifically against the gp41 six-helix bundle 58 . Then, mAb NC-1, HRP-labeled rabbit-anti-mouse IgG (Sigma), and TMB were added in order. A450 was determined by an ELISA reader (Ultra 384, Tecan). Inhibition activities of AP1, AP2, and AP3 on HIV-1 infection were determined as previously described 57 . For inhibition of HIV-1 IIIB (subtype B, X4) infection,100 TCID 50 of the virus was added to 1 × 10 5 /ml MT-2 cells in RPMI 1640 medium containing 10% FBS in the presence or absence of the test peptide overnight. Then, the culture supernatants were changed to fresh media. On the fourth day post-infection, culture supernatants were collected for detection of p24 antigen by ELISA. For inhibition of infection by the HIV-1 strain Bal (subtype B, R5), M7 cells (1 × 10 5 /ml) were precultured overnight and infected with Bal at 100 TCID 50 in the presence or absence of the test peptide or protein overnight. Then, the culture supernatants were changed to fresh media. On the fourth day post-infection, the culture supernatants were discarded, and fresh media were complemented again. The supernatants were collected on the seventh day post-infection and tested for p24 antigen by ELISA as previously described 55 . The percent inhibition of p24 production was calculated. Analysis of the half-life of peptide inhibitors. Four male SD rats weighing approximately 200 g each were obtained from the Shanghai Medical School Animal Center and were used for the half-life assay. Animals were treated in accordance with the Animal Welfare Act and the "Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals" (NIH Publication 86-23, revised 1985). Either AP2 or AP3 was intravenously injected at the concentration of 1 mg/ml. After injection, blood samples were acquired from rat orbit at several time points (8 and 30 min and 1.5, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 h after peptide injection) and placed in clean tubes. To study the pharmacokinetics of AP2 and AP3 in rats and provide experimental evidence for the possible pharmacokinetics in human, a double-antibody sandwich ELISA method was established for rapid determination of AP2 and AP3 in rat plasma. Briefly, 96-well polystyrene plates (Costar, Corning Inc., Corning, NY) were precoated with antibody against AP2 or AP3 (5 μ g/ml) purified from rabbit anti-sera 59 . They were then preincubated with serum samples diluted 20 times at 37 °C for 1 h, followed by the addition of anti-AP2 or anti-AP3 antibody (1:1000) purified from mouse antisera specifically against AP2 or AP3 59 at 37 °C for another 1 h. Then, HRP-labeled rabbit-anti-mouse IgG (Sigma, USA) and TMB were added in order. Absorbance at 450 nm was determined by an ELISA reader (Ultra 384, Tecan). The standard peptide parameters were obtained first. Then, the plasma peptide concentrations were determined as a function of time, and the half-life was calculated by using PK Solver for Microsoft Excel to obtain pharmacokinetic parameters. Assessment of sensitivity of peptides to proteolytic digestion by proteinase K and proteolytic enzymes in liver homogenate. The peptides (10 μ g/mL) were prepared in PBS pH 7.2 containing 20 ng/ml proteinase K. The resulting mixture were incubated at 37 °C in a water bath and taken out at different time intervals (0, 5, 15, 30, 60, 120 minutes), followed by quenching the samples with ethyl alcohol and quantitating the peptides by LC-MS analysis as described above. To test the sensitivity of peptides to the proteolytic enzymes in liver homogenate, 3 male SD rats (250 ± 20 g) were sacrificed under anesthesia. The whole liver was quickly removed from each rat, washed in ice-cold PBS (50 mM, pH 7.2), weighed and cut into small pieces, which were resuspended in PBS to 100 mg wet liver tissue/2.5 ml PBS. The samples were pooled and homogenized, followed by centrifugation at 9,000 g for 20 min at 4 °C. The supernatants were collected. The test peptides were added to the liver homogenate at a final concentration of 10 μ g/ml. The resulting mixture was incubated 37 °C in a water bath, and the residue peptides in the mixture were quantitated as described above.

What is Enfuvirtide?

Detectable 2019-nCoV viral RNA in blood is a strong indicator for the further clinical severity https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054964/ SHA: 77b0c98d1a2ca46b219ad090074814c387c80d8f Authors: Chen, Weilie; Lan, Yun; Yuan, Xiaozhen; Deng, Xilong; Li, Yueping; Cai, Xiaoli; Li, Liya; He, Ruiying; Tan, Yizhou; Deng, Xizi; Gao, Ming; Tang, Guofang; Zhao, Lingzhai; Wang, Jinlin; Fan, Qinghong; Wen, Chunyan; Tong, Yuwei; Tang, Yangbo; Hu, Fengyu; Li, Feng; Tang, Xiaoping Date: 2020-02-26 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1732837 License: cc-by Abstract: The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection caused pneumonia. we retrospectively analyzed the virus presence in the pharyngeal swab, blood, and the anal swab detected by real-time PCR in the clinical lab. Unexpectedly, the 2109-nCoV RNA was readily detected in the blood (6 of 57 patients) and the anal swabs (11 of 28 patients). Importantly, all of the 6 patients with detectable viral RNA in the blood cohort progressed to severe symptom stage, indicating a strong correlation of serum viral RNA with the disease severity (p-value = 0.0001). Meanwhile, 8 of the 11 patients with annal swab virus-positive was in severe clinical stage. However, the concentration of viral RNA in the anal swab (Ct value = 24 + 39) was higher than in the blood (Ct value = 34 + 39) from patient 2, suggesting that the virus might replicate in the digestive tract. Altogether, our results confirmed the presence of virus RNA in extra-pulmonary sites. Text: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), originally outbreaking from Wuhan China, has transmitted in an extremely short period to 25 countries and infected over 31 000 individuals as of Feb 06, 2020, causing an international alarm. Basic scientific research has achieved significantly in the investigation of viral origination [1, 2] , transmission and evolution [3] , and unprecedented public health control actions in China have been activated and effectively prevented the otherwise dramatic spread. The 2019-nCoV virus seems more infectious in its public transmission capacity compared to the well-known 2003 SARS virus in spite of the unavailability of convincingly scientific evidence. The mechanism of viral transmission is still worthy of further exploration. Currently, one urgent and critical challenge is to treat infected patients and save their lives. Several studies have roughly described the overall clinical features of 2019-nCoV patients [4, 5] . However, the more specific and classified clinical characteristics of the infected patients still require further investigation, particularly for those with severe symptoms, which is roughly estimated to be approximately 15-20 percent of totally confirmed cases based on the local data in our hospital. Clinically, for those severe patients, the main symptoms of 2019-nCoV pneumonia are fever, decreased white blood cell and lymphocyte count, increased C reaction protein and abnormally expressed cytokines [6] . One remaining question to be resolved is whether the 2019-nCoV virus can replicate in extra-pulmonary sites, which might account for the deteriorated clinical manifestation. In this study, we investigated whether the patients with severe clinical symptoms exhibited special profiles of virus replication or/and distribution compared to those only with mild symptoms. Patients, who were confirmed to be infected by the 2019-nCoV virus, were firstly enrolled in or transferred to Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital for treatment purposes. This study followed the guideline of the Ethics Committee of Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital. All blood, pharyngeal swab, and anal swab samples were collected for diagnostic purposes in the laboratory and our study added no extra burden to patients. Viral RNA was extracted with Nucleic Acid Isolation Kit (Da'an Gene Corporation, Cat: DA0630) on an automatic workstation Smart 32 (Da'an Gene Corporation) following the guidelines. Real-time reverse transcriptional polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) reagent (Da'an Gene cooperation, Cat DA0930) was employed for viral detection per the protocol. In brief, two PCR primer and probe sets, which target orf1ab (FAM reporter) and N (VIC reporter) genes separately, were added in the same reaction tube. Positive and negative controls were included for each batch of detection. Samples were considered to be viral positive when either or both set(s) gave a reliable signal(s). All patients had pneumonia-based diseases but with diversified clinical manifestation. To simplify data analysis, the patients were only classified as either mild or severe clinical symptom groups based on the guideline newly released by Chinese government. Patients who were with at least one of the following symptom should be diagnosed to be severe case, 1) distress of respiratory with respiratory rate > = 30/min; 2) Oxygen saturation < = 93% in the rest state, and 3) arterial oxygen tension (PaO₂) over inspiratory oxygen fraction (FIO₂) of less than 300 mm Hg. In the blood detection cohort (Figure 1 (A)), patients who had at less one serum sample measurement with the PCR method were included. In the 57, 6 cases were detected to be blood positive, all of them (100%) were severe in symptom requiring special care attention, and the blood of the rest 51 cases was without detectable virus in the blood, only 12 of them (23.5%) were severe cases. The ratio of severe symptoms between these two groups was significantly different (p value = 0.0001). In the anal swab cohort (Figure 1 (B)), 11 of 28 cases were detected to be anal swab positive, 8 of them (72.7%) were with severe symptoms, which was significantly higher than that 4 (23.5%) of the rest 17 cases without detectable virus in anal were severe cases. Fortunately, two cases with detectable virus both in blood and anal swab cohort were recorded. Patient 1 (Figure 2 (A)) was admitted to ICU after enrollment evaluation and was highly suspected infection with 2019-nCoV because of his recent travelling from Wuhan and of confirmed pneumonia by radiographic diagnosis with 5-day fever and 1-day continuous dry coughing. He was then confirmed to be infected by the 2019-nCoV virus on illness day 6 by CDC. High concentrations of the viral RNA were detected in the pharyngeal swabs on illness days 5 (Ct = 17 + 25), 7, 8 (Ct = 25 + 26), and 11 (Ct = 15 + 25). In the blood, no viral RNA was detected on day 5 but the sample on day 6 gave a weak positive signal (Ct = Neg+39), and then the signal was gone again on day 8. On day 9, a low level of viral RNA (Ct = 36 + 41) was detected again in the blood. On day 12, the blood lost signal again. A high concentration of virus RNA (Ct = 23 + 27) was detected in the anal sample on day 13, on the day the 2019-nCoV virus was not detected in the pharyngeal swab. Unfortunately, he was transferred out to another hospital after an emergency expert consultation. Patient 2 (Figure 2 (B)), who had a clear infection history and started fever 5-day ago and dry coughing 2-day ago, was admitted with clinically highly suspect of 2019-nCoV infection, considering the radiographical diagnosis which indicated clear pneumonia in the bilateral lung lobes. The virus was detected in his blood on illness day 7 (Ct = 34 + 36) and 8 (Ct = 38 + 38). His infection was also informed by the CDC on day 8. Because his disease advanced very fast, he was transferred to the ICU ward for special medical care requirements on day 9, on which day high titers of virus (Ct = 25 + 36) were detected in the pharyngeal sample. Importantly, virus RNA was detected in all pharyngeal (Ct = 23 + 24), blood (Ct = 34 + 39) and anal (Ct = 24 + 29) samples on day 10. He was transferred out to another hospital after an emergency expert consultation. Finally, we described here the four patients with detectable serum viral RNA. Patient 3 (Figure 3(A) ) was transferred to the ICU directly on illness day 11 because of his severe condition, the 2019-nCoV virus was laboratory detected both in pharyngeal (Ct = 30 + 30) and blood samples (Ct = 37 + 39) on day 12, And his infection was confirmed by CDC on day 13. Pharyngeal samples were PCR positive on days 14 and 17 and became negative on day 22. Patient 4 (Figure 3(B) ) was transferred to the ICU ward on the illness day 6 with a CDC confirmation. His disease advanced pretty fast and became severe on day 7 and he was transferred to ICU after his blood sample was detected to be virus-positive (Ct = 32 + 37). On day 9, he was transferred out. Patient 5 (Figure 3(C) ) was admitted on illness day 4 and his blood sample was virus-positive (Ct = 38 + Neg) on day 6. Her disease progressed rapidly to a severe stage within the next 3 days. Patient 6 ( Figure 3 (D)) with a clear history of virus infection was confirmed to be infected on infection day 7. Viral RNA was detected in his blood sample on day 9, one day ahead of his transfer into ICU. As his condition worsens, he was transferred out on day 13. In this retrospective study, we analyzed the PCR data of virus detection in different tissues in our laboratory. Firstly, our observation indicated that the presence of viral RNA outside of the respiratory tract might herald the severity of the disease and alarm the requirement of special care. In the blood test cohort, all the 6 infected patients were in (or later progressed to) severe disease stage when serum viral RNA became detectable, which showed a significant difference compared to the blood negative group (p = 0.0001). Patient 2 (Figure 2(B) ), 5 (Figure 3 (C)) and 6 ( Figure 3(D) ) all had detectable viral RNA in the serum before they progressed to the clinical severe symptom stage. Unfortunately, we missed the earlier time points of patient 1 (Figure 2(A) ) and 3 (Figure 3(A) ) who were directly admitted to ICU on transfer to our hospital because of severe condition, of patient 4 (Figure 3(B) ) who had serum sample collected one day post the diagnosis of severe illness. We, fortunately, observed high serum viral load in serum within their severe illness stage. In the anal swab cohort, we found that the presence of virus RNA in the anal digestive tract was also positively correlated with disease severity (p = 0.0102). The 3 patients detected with anal virus RNA but in mild stage should be monitored whether they will progress to the severe stage. We have summarized the information of approximately 70 percent of the patients in Guangzhou city, and the study represented nearly the whole picture of this region. However, the virus outbroke in such an emergence, allowing no delay in waiting for more patients to further confirm the findings. Secondly, a high concentration of viral RNA in anal swabs suggested the digestive tract might be one extrapulmonary site for virus replication. For patient 1, a high concentration of viral RNA (Ct = 23 + 27, on day 13) was detected in anal swab but not in pharyngeal (the same day) and blood (1 d ahead). For patient 2, higher concentrations of viral RNAs were detected in anal swab (Ct = 24 + 39) and pharyngeal swab (Ct = 23 + 24) than in the blood (Ct = 34 + 39) on the same day. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) still is one of the receptors for 2019-nCoV attachment and entry [2] . Intensive structural analysis of the S protein of 2019-nCoV with the SARS-Coronavirus suggested that several critical residues in the viral spike protein might confer favourable interaction with human ACE2 [7] . Of note, ACE2 is also abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the small intestine besides the respiratory tract and is ubiquitously present in endothelial cells [8] , which might provide possible routes of transmission, and might account for the high transmission capacity of the new virus. We propose that rampant coronavirus replication in pulmonary alveolus results in the breakdown of the alveolar vessel and the subsequent virus leakage into the blood flow, through which the virus is disseminated across the whole body. Then the virus succeeds in establishing reinfection in the digestive tract by using the highly expressed ACE2 receptor, which exacerbated the disease vice versa. Bat originated coronavirus was found to replicate in the swine digestive tract recently, also suggesting the potential replication possibility in the human digestive tract [9] . Nevertheless, confirmation of virus transmission through the digestive tract warrants further virus isolation from the anal swab in high safety level lab. Unfortunately, in our study, we did not collect stool samples from patients and did not pursue viral RNA in the stool. But we believe the existence of virus RNA in the stool samples from these patients because that a large amount of viral RNA was detected in anal swabs and that viral RNA had also been detected in a case reported from the United States [10] . Also, we didn't collect sputum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid for virus detection because that the dry coughing characteristic of patients infected with 2019-nCoV prevents producing enough amount of sputum and that bronchoalveolar lavage fluid collection requires a sophisticated operation which increases virus exposure possibility of care providers to high concentrations of virus-containing aerosol. In summary, we find that the presence of viral RNA in the blood and anal swab is positively correlated with the severe disease stage and that early monitoring of virus RNA in blood and the digestive tract on top of the respiratory tract might benefit the disease prediction.

Which patients were classified as severe in Chinese guidelines?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What is a concern with these vaccines?

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

How different is it from SARS-related viruses?

A focus reduction neutralization assay for hepatitis C virus neutralizing antibodies https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1852297/ SHA: ee8dca216514deeed4c9415bc2ad8a78dc3d9670 Authors: Fournier, Carole; Duverlie, Gilles; François, Catherine; Schnuriger, Aurelie; Dedeurwaerder, Sarah; Brochot, Etienne; Capron, Dominique; Wychowski, Czeslaw; Thibault, Vincent; Castelain, Sandrine Date: 2007-03-30 DOI: 10.1186/1743-422x-4-35 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND/AIM: The role of humoral immunity in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is poorly understood. Nevertheless, there is increasing interest in characterizing the neutralizing antibodies in the serum of HCV-infected patients. Focus reduction assays have been widely used to evaluate neutralizing antibody responses against a range of non-cytopathic viruses. Based on the recent development of a HCV cell culture system using the genotype 2 JFH-1-strain, we developed a focus reduction assay for HCV-neutralizing antibodies. METHODS: The focus reduction assay was based on a standard microneutralization assay in which immunostained foci on tissue culture plates are counted. The neutralizing anti-HCV antibodies titers of purified serum immunoglobulin samples from seventy-seven individuals were determined using a 50% focus reduction neutralization assay. Each titer was determined as the log value of the reciprocal antibody dilution that reduced the number of viral foci by 50%. IgG antibodies were first purified from each serum in order to avoid the facilitating effect of HDL on HCV entry. RESULTS: The assay's cut-off using an ELISA and RNA HCV-negative samples was found to be 1.25 log, corresponding to a dilution of 1:18. The assay was compared with a commercial HCV ELISA and exhibited specificity and sensitivity values of 100% and 96.5%, respectively, and good reproducibility (with intra-assay and inter-assay coefficients of variation of 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively). The assay did not show any cross-reactivity with anti-HIV, anti-HBs or heterophile antibody-positive samples. The neutralizing antibodies titers were 2.13 log (1:134) for homologous samples from HCV genotype 2 infected patients harboring the same genotype as JFH-1 and 1.93 log (1:85) for heterologous samples from patients infected by genotypes other than type 2. These results confirm the presence of broadly cross-neutralizing antibodies already reported using the HCV pseudoparticles system. CONCLUSION: This study presents a simple, specific and reproducible cell culture-based assay for determination of HCV-neutralizing antibodies in human sera. The assay should be an important tool for gauging the relationship between the neutralizing antibodies response and viral load kinetics in acutely or chronically infected patients and for investigating the possible eradication or prevention of HCV infection by neutralizing antibodies. Text: Hepatitis C virus (HCV, a member of the Flaviviridae family) is an enveloped, positive-stranded RNA virus that preferentially replicates in hepatocytes. At least 170 million people worldwide are persistently infected with hepatitis C virus. Chronic HCV infection is associated with a significant risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma [1] . Antiviral therapy with pegylated alpha-interferon and ribavirin (the current best therapeutic regimen) is only successful in about 50% of all treated patients. Better knowledge of the viral and host factors that determine HCV clearance or persistence during the acute stage of infection is needed in order to improve antiviral therapy and to develop efficient vaccines. Studies focusing on innate and cellular immune responses have shown that a sufficiently large HCV inoculum is able to evade, subvert or circumvent the host's defences. At present, the chimpanzee is the only reliable experimental animal model in which the initial post-HCV infection events and the efficacy of vaccine candidates can be evaluated [2] . It has been shown that HCV-specific T-cell immunity is important in the control of HCV infection [3, 4] . Several studies have indicated a role for humoral immunity in the acute stage of HCV infection but this aspect remains poorly characterized. The E1 and E2 glycoproteins are thought to be the viral attachment proteins and thus the main targets for HCV-neutralizing antibodies; identification of protective epitopes conserved across different strains of HCV is therefore a major challenge in vaccine design. A number of antibodies capable of blocking E2 binding to cells or cell receptors have been described, [5] [6] [7] [8] some of which neutralize HCV entry in animal or cellular models [9, 10] . Cell entry has been shown to involve several surface molecules (notably including the tetraspanin CD81 and the SR-BI receptor [11, 12] ), although further studies are needed to better understand how viral entry occurs and how it might be neutralized. Detection of neutralizing antibodies in human blood had been problematical until an efficient and reliable cell culture system for HCV became available. Hence, the development of an in vitro neutralization assay for HCV could be extremely valuable for characterizing the humoral immune response to HCV and for evaluating the potential of passive and active immunization against hepatitis C. Recent studies using an in vitro neutralization assay system (based on infectious retroviral pseudoparticles (HCVpp) bearing HCV envelope glycoproteins) have confirmed that HCV-infected patient sera can indeed neutralize infection [13, 14] . However, it has also been shown that the neutralizing activity of antibodies from HCV-infected patients is attenuated by a factor present in human serum, identified as the highdensity lipoprotein (HDL) fraction [11, 13, 15] . HDL facilitation of HCVpp entry is a post-binding event [16] , sug-gesting that HDLs favour internalization of virions and thus the latter's escape from neutralizing antibodies. Recently, an HCV cell culture model (HCVcc) has been developed [17] [18] [19] , allowing the production of virus particles that can be efficiently propagated in cell culture. Some preliminary neutralization assays have been carried out by these authors. In this study, we describe how we set up a standardized focus reduction neutralization assay based on HCVcc. Focus reduction assays have been widely used to evaluate the neutralizing antibody responses to viruses that can form foci in infected cells. Following the recent development of the HCVcc model, the principle of the focus reduction assay has been applied to HCV-neutralizing antibodies detection. The JFH-1 HCV 2a viral strain was grown on a Huh-7 human hepatoma cell line. After three days of infection and cell permeabilization, detection of the HCV foci was carried out using an inactivated HCVpositive patient serum primary antibody and a peroxidase-coupled, Fc-specific anti-human IgG-antibody. The reaction was revealed with DAB peroxidase substrate. The viral foci were thus stained brown, making them easy to count (see Fig. 1a ). It has been recently shown that the neutralizing activity of HCV antibodies is attenuated by a serum factor associated with the HDL fraction. Hence, HDLs were able to facilitate HCVpp and HCVcc entry via a mechanism which depended on the expression of the scavenger receptor BI (SR-BI) and its selective lipid-uptake function [11, 15, 16, 20] . In view of the role of HDL in HCV entry, immunoglobulins were purified from each serum sample prior to determination of the neutralizing antibody titer (see Fig. 1b ). The specificity of the HCV neutralization assay was assessed by testing 20 anti-HCV-ELISA-negative samples, including five positive for hepatitis B virus surface antibodies (anti-HBs) and five positive for heterophile antibodies. All samples tested negative with two commercial anti-HCV antibody detection assays (Axsym ® HCV Version 3.0, Abbott, Wiesbaden, Germany; Vitros ® Anti-HCV reagent pack, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostic, High Wycombe, United Kingdom) and HCV-RNA-negative with a qualitative, commercial assay (Cobas Amplicor HCV test Version 2.0, Roche Diagnostics, Meylan, France). These anti-HCV-negative samples were compared with 11 samples from patients chronically infected with HCV genotype 2. The neutralization titers of anti-HCV-negative serum samples are shown in Fig. 2 ., with a mean value of 1.083 ± 0.083 (corresponding to a dilution of 1:12). The assay's cut-off (determined as the mean value for negative samples plus two standard deviations) corresponded to a dilution of 1:18. The assay exhibited specificity and sensibility values of 100% and 96.5%, respectively. The assay did not show any cross-reactivity with anti-HIV, anti-HBs or heterophile antibody-positive samples (data not shown). Conversely, the chronically HCV genotype 2-positive samples displayed strong reactions, with a mean value of 2.128 ± 0.365 (corresponding to a dilution of 1:134) (p < 0.001). Inter-assay variability was determined by testing one HCV genotype 2 sample in 10 consecutive experiments (n = 10), whereas intra-assay variability was evaluated by testing the same sample 10 times (n = 10) in the same experiment, whilst running the dilution series. The intra-assay and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) of the log neutralization titers were 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively. Fifty-seven HCV-positive antibodies samples were evaluated using the HCV focus reduction neutralization assay. The genotypes were distributed as follows; for types 1a, 1b, 2, 3, 4 and 5, we studied 11, 11, 11, 12, 10 and 2 samples, respectively. The mean values of the different genotypes is shown in Fig. 3 . and Table 1 . The mean log neutralization titers for genotypes 1a, 2 and 3 are very similar (2.046 ± 0.671 for genotype 1a, 2.128 ± 0.365 for genotype 2 and 2.148 ± 0.478 for genotype 3). The mean average values are lower for genotype 1b (1.747 ± 0.462) and genotype 4 (1.786 ± 0.236). Strikingly, very high heterologous titers were observed for five patients -three infected with HCV genotype 1a and two infected with HCV genotype 3 (see Fig. 3a ). There were too few genotype 5 samples to compare with the other genotypes but the corresponding results nevertheless indicate that the neutralization assay is suitable for this genotype. The two The distribution of the log neutralization titers across all the HCV ELISA and RNA-positive samples as a function of the HCV genotype is shown in Fig. 3b . More than 60% of the neutralizing antibodies titers fell in the range from 1.7 to 2.69 log titers, corresponding to dilutions of 1:50 and 1:500, respectively. Overall, 3.5% of the samples displayed a titer greater than log 3.0 (1:1000) and, conversely, 3.5% displayed a titer below the cut-off value, i.e. log 1.25 (1:10). Thus, of 57 HCV-infected patients, only two did not test positive for neutralizing antibodies in this assay (the titers were 0.960 and 0.932, respectively). The role of neutralizing antibodies during acute and chronic viral infection remains an important question and has generated controversial results. Initially, the presence of neutralizing antibodies was shown to control the HCV load and to contribute to viral eradication in patients capable of clearing the infection [13] . In other studies, the appearance of neutralizing antibodies was delayed and restricted to IgG1 antibodies in patients who develop a chronic infection [2, 21] . The chimpanzee model has been critical for the study of HCV transmission and host immune responses; however, neutralizing antibodies were not detected in some animals that resolved their infection -suggesting a minimal role in viral clearance, as also observed in human studies [14, 15] . Experimentally infected chimpanzees and naturally infected humans can be re-infected with homologous and heterologous HCV strains, suggesting that the humoral immunity that develops after spontaneous resolution of acute hepatitis C is not sterilizing [22] [23] [24] . During chronic infection in humans, the presence and/or production of neutralizing antibodies do not suffice for curing the infection but could regulate the spread of the virus. Thus, it can be postulated that during chronic infection, viral mutants can continuously escape the renewed production of neutralizing antibodies. Retroviral pseudoparticles have been used to develop a very interesting tool for measuring neutralizing antibodies in vitro [14] . The assay has demonstrated the presence of HCV-neutralizing antibodies in human sera with relatively high titers (>1:320) and broadly neutralizing activity against different HCV genotypes. However, this model does not represent genuine HCV virions; in particular, the budding of retroviral particles is thought to be very different and may involve a variety of cellular pathways. Characterization of infectious retroviral pseudotype particles bearing HCV glycoproteins have been shown to be very heterogeneous, and so it is possible that these pseudoparticles may not be as relevant as the native HCV virions [25] . The recent development of a cell culture model for HCV enables the production of native HCV virions that can be efficiently propagated in cell culture [17] [18] [19] . This cell culture system has allowed us to develop a neutralization assay for evaluating the level and the proportion of HCVneutralizing antibodies in chronically infected HCV patients. We analysed a number of parameters (such as practicability, reproducibility and specificity) and tested the effect of a range of variables (viral inoculum size, incubation time, fixation and permeabilization methods, blocking and revelation reagents) on these parameters (data not shown). Overall, the neutralization assay described in this study performs similarly to standardized neutralization assays for many other viruses [26] [27] [28] . The assay relies on the ability of the specific JFH-1 genotype 2 viral strain to replicate and multiply on a Huh-7 human hepatoma cell line in a cell culture model, enabling the rapid detection of viral foci after 72 hours of infection. Moreover, no secondary foci were detectable at this time point. Fixation with paraformaldehyde and permeabilization with Triton X-100 were chosen in order to preserve antigenicity and prevent the cell monolayer from detaching during washes. Development with DAB peroxide substrate made it easy to count specifically coloured viral foci. The viral inoculum size is an important parameter; it has to be low enough to enable good assay sensitivity but high enough to produce a statistically significant number of foci, i.e. allowing the reduction in the number of foci (and thus the effect of neutralization) to be monitored. Thus, 100 FFUs were used as the inoculum in this neutralization assay. In order to test different human samples, we had to take into account the ability of HDL to facilitate HCVcc entry via a mechanism which depends on expression of the scavenger receptor BI [11, 15, 16, 20] . Given HDL's role in HCV entry, immunoglobulins were purified from each serum sample prior to determination of the neutralizing antibodies titer; this frees the assay of the risk of non-specific neutralization activity of the serum via the effects of HDL, the complement system and/or serum amyloid A protein (SAA) [29] . The HCV neutralization assay exhibited good reproducibility, for both duplicate assays and independent tests. As expected, the intra-assay coefficient of variation (CV) was lower than the interassay CV. The test also showed good specificity, since there was no interaction with anti-HIV, anti-HBV or heterophile antibodies. Very low titers were found with HCV ELISA and RNA-negative samples, and the assay's cut-off was determined as the mean titer for negative samples plus two standard deviations (1.25 log, corresponding to a dilution of 1:18). Given that only the JFH-1 strain of HCV genotype 2a was available for the assay, we evaluated the neutralization titer of sera from patients chronically infected with other HCV genotypes, i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Most of these sera were detected as positive by the neutralization assay, except for two sera from HCV genotype 1-infected patients. These two samples presented a high specific antibody ratio according to the ELISA but only very low inhibition by neutralization assay (far below the cut-off, in fact). We conclude that either the samples lacked neutralizing antibodies or that any such antibodies that were present did not cross-neutralize with HCV genotype 2a. The sensitivity was 100% -not only for genotype 2 (the genotype of the strain used for the assay) but also for other HCV genotypes (except genotype 1). HCV genotype 5 antibodies were also measured but there were too few samples for accurate testing. Moreover, the positive sera (96.5%) had comparable and significantly high titers (1.99 ± 0.63), whatever the genotype. This finding suggests that most neutralizing antibodies are cross-reactive. Another possibility is that most of the patients had been previously infected by a genotype 2 strain. However, this is unlikely because few genotype 2 strains are circulating in France [30] . As expected for a neutralization test, the assay presented in the present study appeared to be very specific (independently of the genotype) and usable in most circumstances. For most viral infections, neutralization assays such as that described in this study are used as reference assays. Thus, we are confident that as other HCVcc genotypes become available, these assays will replace the pseudoparticle assay in the near future because they are probably more relevant. Our assay is somewhat time-consuming and could be simplified by using one dilution to count the foci; however, this type of "short cut" would make it difficult to extrapolate to the dilution neutralizing 50% of the inoculum. Another approach would consist in using recombinant HCV capable of expressing reporter genes (such as luciferase) in order to use a single dilution and obtain a quantitative result [31] . However, further neutralization studies using other genotypes are needed in order to complete our observations and to char- A simple, specific and reproducible cell culture-based neutralization assay was developed for the determination of neutralizing anti-HCV antibodies in human sera. This test should be an important tool for gauging the relationship between the neutralizing response and viral load kinetics in acutely and chronically infected patients. The Huh-7 human hepatoma cells [32] were grown in Dulbecco's minimum essential medium (Invitrogen) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum. All cell cultures were maintained in 5% CO 2 at 37°C. The plasmid pJFH-1 containing the full-length cDNA of the JFH-1 isolate (which belongs to subtype 2a (GenBank accession no. AB047639)), was a gift from Dr Wakita (Department of Microbiology, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neuroscience, Tokyo, Japan) and has been described previously [17] . To generate genomic HCV RNA, the plasmid pJFH-1 was linearized at the 3' end of the HCV cDNA and used as a template for in vitro transcription, as described previously [33] . Viral stocks were obtained by harvesting cell culture supernatants and freezing them at -80°C. Virus titration was performed on Huh-7 cells with 6-well microtiter plates (Corning, NY) 72 hours after incubation, by immunostaining the cells with antibodies from a HCV-positive patient serum that had previously been inactivated at 56°C (see the section on the virus neutralization assay). The viral titer was determined in triplicate from the mean number of foci and expressed as focus forming units/mL (FFU/mL). Seventy-seven human serum samples were tested. Collection of the sera was approved by the local Ethics Committee and informed consent had been obtained from the donors. Fifty-seven of these samples were obtained from chronically infected HCV patients. The presence of HCV antibodies was determined and confirmed using two third-generation HCV EIA assays (Axsym ® HCV Version 3.0, Abbott, Wiesbaden, Germany and Vitros ® Anti-HCV reagent pack, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostic, High Wycombe, United Kingdom). HCV RNA was determined with a qualitative commercial assay (Cobas Amplicor HCV test Version 2.0, Roche Diagnostics, Meylan, France) and HCV genotyping was performed by direct sequencing, as described elsewhere [34] . The genotypes were distributed as follows: 11, 11, 11, 12, 10 and 2 samples of types 1a, 1b, 2, 3, 4 and 5, respectively. A set of 20 anti-HCV-negative serum samples was used to evaluate the assay's specif-icity, including five serum samples with positive hepatitis B virus surface antibody (anti-HBs) status and five sera from Epstein-Barr virus-infected patients that had tested positive for heterophile antibodies. All serum samples had been stored at -80°C upon collection and had not been thawed until the time of assay. Serum immunoglobulins G (IgG) fraction was purified using protein G-Sepharose (GE Healthcare, Orsay, France The HCV focus reduction neutralization assay was performed in 96-well microtiter plates. Serial dilutions of purified IgG (10 μg) ranging from 1:10 to 1:1,280 were established. Each dilution was tested twice. 25 μL of each sample was mixed with 25 μL of virus (100 FFU) in 96well microtiter plates and incubated for 1 hour at 37°C, 5% CO 2 . A volume of 100 μL of Huh-7 cell suspension (10,000 cells/well) in culture medium was added and incubated for 5 hours at 37°C, 5% CO2. After 5 hours, the supernatants were removed and 100 μL of culture medium were added to the monolayers. After 72 hours, the cells were fixed with paraformaldehyde and permeabilized with 0.5% Triton X-100. Primary antibody (a HCVpositive patient serum inactivated at 56°C) was diluted to 1:500 prior to use and then incubated for 1 h at room temperature. A peroxidase-coupled, Fc-specific anti-human IgG antibody (Sigma, Saint Quentin Fallavier, France) diluted to 1:200 was dispensed onto the cell monolayer and incubated for 30 min at room temperature. The reaction was developed with DAB peroxidase substrate (Sigma, Saint Quentin Fallavier, France) and stopped after 10 min of incubation with distilled water. The number of HCV foci in each dilution was determined. Controls were included in each assay (non-neutralized virus, purified IgG from each patient at a 1:10 dilution). The dilution that neutralized 50% of the virus was calculated by curvilinear regression analysis using XLSTAT 2006 software (Addinsoft SARL, Paris, France) [35] . Each titer was deter-mined as the log value of the reciprocal antibody dilution that reduced the number of viral foci by 50%. Titers were expressed as logarithmic values and means ± standard deviation were calculated. Student's t-test was used to compare data between groups. p values below 0.05 were considered to be significant.

What is the Hepatitis C virus?

A focus reduction neutralization assay for hepatitis C virus neutralizing antibodies https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1852297/ SHA: ee8dca216514deeed4c9415bc2ad8a78dc3d9670 Authors: Fournier, Carole; Duverlie, Gilles; François, Catherine; Schnuriger, Aurelie; Dedeurwaerder, Sarah; Brochot, Etienne; Capron, Dominique; Wychowski, Czeslaw; Thibault, Vincent; Castelain, Sandrine Date: 2007-03-30 DOI: 10.1186/1743-422x-4-35 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND/AIM: The role of humoral immunity in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is poorly understood. Nevertheless, there is increasing interest in characterizing the neutralizing antibodies in the serum of HCV-infected patients. Focus reduction assays have been widely used to evaluate neutralizing antibody responses against a range of non-cytopathic viruses. Based on the recent development of a HCV cell culture system using the genotype 2 JFH-1-strain, we developed a focus reduction assay for HCV-neutralizing antibodies. METHODS: The focus reduction assay was based on a standard microneutralization assay in which immunostained foci on tissue culture plates are counted. The neutralizing anti-HCV antibodies titers of purified serum immunoglobulin samples from seventy-seven individuals were determined using a 50% focus reduction neutralization assay. Each titer was determined as the log value of the reciprocal antibody dilution that reduced the number of viral foci by 50%. IgG antibodies were first purified from each serum in order to avoid the facilitating effect of HDL on HCV entry. RESULTS: The assay's cut-off using an ELISA and RNA HCV-negative samples was found to be 1.25 log, corresponding to a dilution of 1:18. The assay was compared with a commercial HCV ELISA and exhibited specificity and sensitivity values of 100% and 96.5%, respectively, and good reproducibility (with intra-assay and inter-assay coefficients of variation of 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively). The assay did not show any cross-reactivity with anti-HIV, anti-HBs or heterophile antibody-positive samples. The neutralizing antibodies titers were 2.13 log (1:134) for homologous samples from HCV genotype 2 infected patients harboring the same genotype as JFH-1 and 1.93 log (1:85) for heterologous samples from patients infected by genotypes other than type 2. These results confirm the presence of broadly cross-neutralizing antibodies already reported using the HCV pseudoparticles system. CONCLUSION: This study presents a simple, specific and reproducible cell culture-based assay for determination of HCV-neutralizing antibodies in human sera. The assay should be an important tool for gauging the relationship between the neutralizing antibodies response and viral load kinetics in acutely or chronically infected patients and for investigating the possible eradication or prevention of HCV infection by neutralizing antibodies. Text: Hepatitis C virus (HCV, a member of the Flaviviridae family) is an enveloped, positive-stranded RNA virus that preferentially replicates in hepatocytes. At least 170 million people worldwide are persistently infected with hepatitis C virus. Chronic HCV infection is associated with a significant risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma [1] . Antiviral therapy with pegylated alpha-interferon and ribavirin (the current best therapeutic regimen) is only successful in about 50% of all treated patients. Better knowledge of the viral and host factors that determine HCV clearance or persistence during the acute stage of infection is needed in order to improve antiviral therapy and to develop efficient vaccines. Studies focusing on innate and cellular immune responses have shown that a sufficiently large HCV inoculum is able to evade, subvert or circumvent the host's defences. At present, the chimpanzee is the only reliable experimental animal model in which the initial post-HCV infection events and the efficacy of vaccine candidates can be evaluated [2] . It has been shown that HCV-specific T-cell immunity is important in the control of HCV infection [3, 4] . Several studies have indicated a role for humoral immunity in the acute stage of HCV infection but this aspect remains poorly characterized. The E1 and E2 glycoproteins are thought to be the viral attachment proteins and thus the main targets for HCV-neutralizing antibodies; identification of protective epitopes conserved across different strains of HCV is therefore a major challenge in vaccine design. A number of antibodies capable of blocking E2 binding to cells or cell receptors have been described, [5] [6] [7] [8] some of which neutralize HCV entry in animal or cellular models [9, 10] . Cell entry has been shown to involve several surface molecules (notably including the tetraspanin CD81 and the SR-BI receptor [11, 12] ), although further studies are needed to better understand how viral entry occurs and how it might be neutralized. Detection of neutralizing antibodies in human blood had been problematical until an efficient and reliable cell culture system for HCV became available. Hence, the development of an in vitro neutralization assay for HCV could be extremely valuable for characterizing the humoral immune response to HCV and for evaluating the potential of passive and active immunization against hepatitis C. Recent studies using an in vitro neutralization assay system (based on infectious retroviral pseudoparticles (HCVpp) bearing HCV envelope glycoproteins) have confirmed that HCV-infected patient sera can indeed neutralize infection [13, 14] . However, it has also been shown that the neutralizing activity of antibodies from HCV-infected patients is attenuated by a factor present in human serum, identified as the highdensity lipoprotein (HDL) fraction [11, 13, 15] . HDL facilitation of HCVpp entry is a post-binding event [16] , sug-gesting that HDLs favour internalization of virions and thus the latter's escape from neutralizing antibodies. Recently, an HCV cell culture model (HCVcc) has been developed [17] [18] [19] , allowing the production of virus particles that can be efficiently propagated in cell culture. Some preliminary neutralization assays have been carried out by these authors. In this study, we describe how we set up a standardized focus reduction neutralization assay based on HCVcc. Focus reduction assays have been widely used to evaluate the neutralizing antibody responses to viruses that can form foci in infected cells. Following the recent development of the HCVcc model, the principle of the focus reduction assay has been applied to HCV-neutralizing antibodies detection. The JFH-1 HCV 2a viral strain was grown on a Huh-7 human hepatoma cell line. After three days of infection and cell permeabilization, detection of the HCV foci was carried out using an inactivated HCVpositive patient serum primary antibody and a peroxidase-coupled, Fc-specific anti-human IgG-antibody. The reaction was revealed with DAB peroxidase substrate. The viral foci were thus stained brown, making them easy to count (see Fig. 1a ). It has been recently shown that the neutralizing activity of HCV antibodies is attenuated by a serum factor associated with the HDL fraction. Hence, HDLs were able to facilitate HCVpp and HCVcc entry via a mechanism which depended on the expression of the scavenger receptor BI (SR-BI) and its selective lipid-uptake function [11, 15, 16, 20] . In view of the role of HDL in HCV entry, immunoglobulins were purified from each serum sample prior to determination of the neutralizing antibody titer (see Fig. 1b ). The specificity of the HCV neutralization assay was assessed by testing 20 anti-HCV-ELISA-negative samples, including five positive for hepatitis B virus surface antibodies (anti-HBs) and five positive for heterophile antibodies. All samples tested negative with two commercial anti-HCV antibody detection assays (Axsym ® HCV Version 3.0, Abbott, Wiesbaden, Germany; Vitros ® Anti-HCV reagent pack, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostic, High Wycombe, United Kingdom) and HCV-RNA-negative with a qualitative, commercial assay (Cobas Amplicor HCV test Version 2.0, Roche Diagnostics, Meylan, France). These anti-HCV-negative samples were compared with 11 samples from patients chronically infected with HCV genotype 2. The neutralization titers of anti-HCV-negative serum samples are shown in Fig. 2 ., with a mean value of 1.083 ± 0.083 (corresponding to a dilution of 1:12). The assay's cut-off (determined as the mean value for negative samples plus two standard deviations) corresponded to a dilution of 1:18. The assay exhibited specificity and sensibility values of 100% and 96.5%, respectively. The assay did not show any cross-reactivity with anti-HIV, anti-HBs or heterophile antibody-positive samples (data not shown). Conversely, the chronically HCV genotype 2-positive samples displayed strong reactions, with a mean value of 2.128 ± 0.365 (corresponding to a dilution of 1:134) (p < 0.001). Inter-assay variability was determined by testing one HCV genotype 2 sample in 10 consecutive experiments (n = 10), whereas intra-assay variability was evaluated by testing the same sample 10 times (n = 10) in the same experiment, whilst running the dilution series. The intra-assay and inter-assay coefficients of variation (CV) of the log neutralization titers were 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively. Fifty-seven HCV-positive antibodies samples were evaluated using the HCV focus reduction neutralization assay. The genotypes were distributed as follows; for types 1a, 1b, 2, 3, 4 and 5, we studied 11, 11, 11, 12, 10 and 2 samples, respectively. The mean values of the different genotypes is shown in Fig. 3 . and Table 1 . The mean log neutralization titers for genotypes 1a, 2 and 3 are very similar (2.046 ± 0.671 for genotype 1a, 2.128 ± 0.365 for genotype 2 and 2.148 ± 0.478 for genotype 3). The mean average values are lower for genotype 1b (1.747 ± 0.462) and genotype 4 (1.786 ± 0.236). Strikingly, very high heterologous titers were observed for five patients -three infected with HCV genotype 1a and two infected with HCV genotype 3 (see Fig. 3a ). There were too few genotype 5 samples to compare with the other genotypes but the corresponding results nevertheless indicate that the neutralization assay is suitable for this genotype. The two The distribution of the log neutralization titers across all the HCV ELISA and RNA-positive samples as a function of the HCV genotype is shown in Fig. 3b . More than 60% of the neutralizing antibodies titers fell in the range from 1.7 to 2.69 log titers, corresponding to dilutions of 1:50 and 1:500, respectively. Overall, 3.5% of the samples displayed a titer greater than log 3.0 (1:1000) and, conversely, 3.5% displayed a titer below the cut-off value, i.e. log 1.25 (1:10). Thus, of 57 HCV-infected patients, only two did not test positive for neutralizing antibodies in this assay (the titers were 0.960 and 0.932, respectively). The role of neutralizing antibodies during acute and chronic viral infection remains an important question and has generated controversial results. Initially, the presence of neutralizing antibodies was shown to control the HCV load and to contribute to viral eradication in patients capable of clearing the infection [13] . In other studies, the appearance of neutralizing antibodies was delayed and restricted to IgG1 antibodies in patients who develop a chronic infection [2, 21] . The chimpanzee model has been critical for the study of HCV transmission and host immune responses; however, neutralizing antibodies were not detected in some animals that resolved their infection -suggesting a minimal role in viral clearance, as also observed in human studies [14, 15] . Experimentally infected chimpanzees and naturally infected humans can be re-infected with homologous and heterologous HCV strains, suggesting that the humoral immunity that develops after spontaneous resolution of acute hepatitis C is not sterilizing [22] [23] [24] . During chronic infection in humans, the presence and/or production of neutralizing antibodies do not suffice for curing the infection but could regulate the spread of the virus. Thus, it can be postulated that during chronic infection, viral mutants can continuously escape the renewed production of neutralizing antibodies. Retroviral pseudoparticles have been used to develop a very interesting tool for measuring neutralizing antibodies in vitro [14] . The assay has demonstrated the presence of HCV-neutralizing antibodies in human sera with relatively high titers (>1:320) and broadly neutralizing activity against different HCV genotypes. However, this model does not represent genuine HCV virions; in particular, the budding of retroviral particles is thought to be very different and may involve a variety of cellular pathways. Characterization of infectious retroviral pseudotype particles bearing HCV glycoproteins have been shown to be very heterogeneous, and so it is possible that these pseudoparticles may not be as relevant as the native HCV virions [25] . The recent development of a cell culture model for HCV enables the production of native HCV virions that can be efficiently propagated in cell culture [17] [18] [19] . This cell culture system has allowed us to develop a neutralization assay for evaluating the level and the proportion of HCVneutralizing antibodies in chronically infected HCV patients. We analysed a number of parameters (such as practicability, reproducibility and specificity) and tested the effect of a range of variables (viral inoculum size, incubation time, fixation and permeabilization methods, blocking and revelation reagents) on these parameters (data not shown). Overall, the neutralization assay described in this study performs similarly to standardized neutralization assays for many other viruses [26] [27] [28] . The assay relies on the ability of the specific JFH-1 genotype 2 viral strain to replicate and multiply on a Huh-7 human hepatoma cell line in a cell culture model, enabling the rapid detection of viral foci after 72 hours of infection. Moreover, no secondary foci were detectable at this time point. Fixation with paraformaldehyde and permeabilization with Triton X-100 were chosen in order to preserve antigenicity and prevent the cell monolayer from detaching during washes. Development with DAB peroxide substrate made it easy to count specifically coloured viral foci. The viral inoculum size is an important parameter; it has to be low enough to enable good assay sensitivity but high enough to produce a statistically significant number of foci, i.e. allowing the reduction in the number of foci (and thus the effect of neutralization) to be monitored. Thus, 100 FFUs were used as the inoculum in this neutralization assay. In order to test different human samples, we had to take into account the ability of HDL to facilitate HCVcc entry via a mechanism which depends on expression of the scavenger receptor BI [11, 15, 16, 20] . Given HDL's role in HCV entry, immunoglobulins were purified from each serum sample prior to determination of the neutralizing antibodies titer; this frees the assay of the risk of non-specific neutralization activity of the serum via the effects of HDL, the complement system and/or serum amyloid A protein (SAA) [29] . The HCV neutralization assay exhibited good reproducibility, for both duplicate assays and independent tests. As expected, the intra-assay coefficient of variation (CV) was lower than the interassay CV. The test also showed good specificity, since there was no interaction with anti-HIV, anti-HBV or heterophile antibodies. Very low titers were found with HCV ELISA and RNA-negative samples, and the assay's cut-off was determined as the mean titer for negative samples plus two standard deviations (1.25 log, corresponding to a dilution of 1:18). Given that only the JFH-1 strain of HCV genotype 2a was available for the assay, we evaluated the neutralization titer of sera from patients chronically infected with other HCV genotypes, i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Most of these sera were detected as positive by the neutralization assay, except for two sera from HCV genotype 1-infected patients. These two samples presented a high specific antibody ratio according to the ELISA but only very low inhibition by neutralization assay (far below the cut-off, in fact). We conclude that either the samples lacked neutralizing antibodies or that any such antibodies that were present did not cross-neutralize with HCV genotype 2a. The sensitivity was 100% -not only for genotype 2 (the genotype of the strain used for the assay) but also for other HCV genotypes (except genotype 1). HCV genotype 5 antibodies were also measured but there were too few samples for accurate testing. Moreover, the positive sera (96.5%) had comparable and significantly high titers (1.99 ± 0.63), whatever the genotype. This finding suggests that most neutralizing antibodies are cross-reactive. Another possibility is that most of the patients had been previously infected by a genotype 2 strain. However, this is unlikely because few genotype 2 strains are circulating in France [30] . As expected for a neutralization test, the assay presented in the present study appeared to be very specific (independently of the genotype) and usable in most circumstances. For most viral infections, neutralization assays such as that described in this study are used as reference assays. Thus, we are confident that as other HCVcc genotypes become available, these assays will replace the pseudoparticle assay in the near future because they are probably more relevant. Our assay is somewhat time-consuming and could be simplified by using one dilution to count the foci; however, this type of "short cut" would make it difficult to extrapolate to the dilution neutralizing 50% of the inoculum. Another approach would consist in using recombinant HCV capable of expressing reporter genes (such as luciferase) in order to use a single dilution and obtain a quantitative result [31] . However, further neutralization studies using other genotypes are needed in order to complete our observations and to char- A simple, specific and reproducible cell culture-based neutralization assay was developed for the determination of neutralizing anti-HCV antibodies in human sera. This test should be an important tool for gauging the relationship between the neutralizing response and viral load kinetics in acutely and chronically infected patients. The Huh-7 human hepatoma cells [32] were grown in Dulbecco's minimum essential medium (Invitrogen) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum. All cell cultures were maintained in 5% CO 2 at 37°C. The plasmid pJFH-1 containing the full-length cDNA of the JFH-1 isolate (which belongs to subtype 2a (GenBank accession no. AB047639)), was a gift from Dr Wakita (Department of Microbiology, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neuroscience, Tokyo, Japan) and has been described previously [17] . To generate genomic HCV RNA, the plasmid pJFH-1 was linearized at the 3' end of the HCV cDNA and used as a template for in vitro transcription, as described previously [33] . Viral stocks were obtained by harvesting cell culture supernatants and freezing them at -80°C. Virus titration was performed on Huh-7 cells with 6-well microtiter plates (Corning, NY) 72 hours after incubation, by immunostaining the cells with antibodies from a HCV-positive patient serum that had previously been inactivated at 56°C (see the section on the virus neutralization assay). The viral titer was determined in triplicate from the mean number of foci and expressed as focus forming units/mL (FFU/mL). Seventy-seven human serum samples were tested. Collection of the sera was approved by the local Ethics Committee and informed consent had been obtained from the donors. Fifty-seven of these samples were obtained from chronically infected HCV patients. The presence of HCV antibodies was determined and confirmed using two third-generation HCV EIA assays (Axsym ® HCV Version 3.0, Abbott, Wiesbaden, Germany and Vitros ® Anti-HCV reagent pack, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostic, High Wycombe, United Kingdom). HCV RNA was determined with a qualitative commercial assay (Cobas Amplicor HCV test Version 2.0, Roche Diagnostics, Meylan, France) and HCV genotyping was performed by direct sequencing, as described elsewhere [34] . The genotypes were distributed as follows: 11, 11, 11, 12, 10 and 2 samples of types 1a, 1b, 2, 3, 4 and 5, respectively. A set of 20 anti-HCV-negative serum samples was used to evaluate the assay's specif-icity, including five serum samples with positive hepatitis B virus surface antibody (anti-HBs) status and five sera from Epstein-Barr virus-infected patients that had tested positive for heterophile antibodies. All serum samples had been stored at -80°C upon collection and had not been thawed until the time of assay. Serum immunoglobulins G (IgG) fraction was purified using protein G-Sepharose (GE Healthcare, Orsay, France The HCV focus reduction neutralization assay was performed in 96-well microtiter plates. Serial dilutions of purified IgG (10 μg) ranging from 1:10 to 1:1,280 were established. Each dilution was tested twice. 25 μL of each sample was mixed with 25 μL of virus (100 FFU) in 96well microtiter plates and incubated for 1 hour at 37°C, 5% CO 2 . A volume of 100 μL of Huh-7 cell suspension (10,000 cells/well) in culture medium was added and incubated for 5 hours at 37°C, 5% CO2. After 5 hours, the supernatants were removed and 100 μL of culture medium were added to the monolayers. After 72 hours, the cells were fixed with paraformaldehyde and permeabilized with 0.5% Triton X-100. Primary antibody (a HCVpositive patient serum inactivated at 56°C) was diluted to 1:500 prior to use and then incubated for 1 h at room temperature. A peroxidase-coupled, Fc-specific anti-human IgG antibody (Sigma, Saint Quentin Fallavier, France) diluted to 1:200 was dispensed onto the cell monolayer and incubated for 30 min at room temperature. The reaction was developed with DAB peroxidase substrate (Sigma, Saint Quentin Fallavier, France) and stopped after 10 min of incubation with distilled water. The number of HCV foci in each dilution was determined. Controls were included in each assay (non-neutralized virus, purified IgG from each patient at a 1:10 dilution). The dilution that neutralized 50% of the virus was calculated by curvilinear regression analysis using XLSTAT 2006 software (Addinsoft SARL, Paris, France) [35] . Each titer was deter-mined as the log value of the reciprocal antibody dilution that reduced the number of viral foci by 50%. Titers were expressed as logarithmic values and means ± standard deviation were calculated. Student's t-test was used to compare data between groups. p values below 0.05 were considered to be significant.

What antiviral treatments are used for hepatitis C infection?

Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030674 SHA: 1d7f8850c5244fdc9b387038e7eeae9bcbbde6d2 Authors: Al-Qaness, Mohammed A. A.; Ewees, Ahmed A.; Fan, Hong; Abd El Aziz, Mohamed Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030674 License: cc-by Abstract: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances. Text: A large family of viruses, called coronaviruses, are severe pathogens for human beings, which infect respiratory, hepatic, gastrointestinal, and neurologic diseases. They are distributed among humans, birds, livestock, mice, bats, and other wild animals [1] [2] [3] . The outbreaks of two previous coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in 2003 and 2012, respectively, have approved the transmission from animal to animal, and human to human [4] . In December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) received notifications from China for many cases of respiratory illness that were linked to some people who had visited a seafood market in Wuhan [5] . Currently, Wuhan city suffers from the spreading of a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19 (previously, it was called 2019-nCoV). In [6] , the authors concluded that COVID-19 likely originated in bats, because it is more similar to two bat-derived coronavirus strains. However, the source of the COVID-19 is not confirmed yet, and it communities, Hong Kong and Toronto, were 1.2 and 1.32, respectively. Ong et al. [20] proposed a monitoring and forecasting model for influenza A (H1N1-2009). Furthermore, Nah et al. [21] proposed a probability-based model to predict the spread of the MERS. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) [22] is widely applied in time series prediction and forecasting problems, and it showed good performance in many existing applications. It offers flexibility in determining nonlinearity in the time series data, as well as combining the properties of both artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic systems. It has been applied in various forecasting applications, for example, in [23] , a stock price forecasting model was proposed using ANFIS and empirical mode decomposition. Chen et al. [24] proposed a TAIEX time series forecasting model based on a hybrid of ANFIS and ordered weighted averaging (OWA). In [25] , another time series forecasting method was presented for electricity prices based on ANFIS. Svalina et al. [26] proposed an ANFIS based forecasting model for close price indices for a stock market for five days. Ekici and Aksoy [27] presented an ANFIS based building energy consumption forecasting model. More so, ANFIS is also applied to forecast electricity loads [28] . Kumar et al. [29] proposed an ANFIS based model to forecast return products. Ho and Tsai [30] applied ANFIS to forecast product development performance. However, estimating ANFIS parameters is a challenge that needs to be improved. Therefore, in previous studies, some individual swarm intelligence (SI) methods have been applied to the ANFIS parameters to enhance time series forecasting because these parameters have a significant effect on the performance of ANFIS. The SI methods include the particle swarm optimization (PSO) [31, 32] , social-spider optimization [33] , sine-cosine algorithm (SCA) [34] , and multi-verse optimizer (MVO) [35] . For example, in [34] SCA algorithm was applied to improve the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in three countries, namely, Canada, Germany, and Japan. In the same context, in [35] , The MVO algorithm was used to enhance the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in two countries. In addition, in [36] the PSO was used with ANFIS to predict biochar yield. However, individual SI algorithms may stock at local optima. Therefore, one solution is to apply hybrid SI algorithms to avoid this problem. In [37] , a hybrid of two SI algorithms, namely GA and SSA, was presented to improve the ANFIS model. The proposed new model called GA-SSA-ANFIS was applied to forecast crude oil prices for long-term time series data. However, the previously mentioned methods suffer from some limitations that can affect the performance of the forecasting output such as slow convergence and the ability to balance between exploration and exploitation phases can influence the quality of the final output. This motivated us to propose an alternative forecasting method dependent on the hybridization concept. This concept avoids the limitations of traditional SI techniques by combining the strengths of different techniques, and this produces new SI techniques that are better than traditional ones. In the current study, we propose an improved ANFIS model based on a modified flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). The FPA is an optimization algorithm proposed by Yang [38] , which was inspired by the flow pollination process of the flowering plants. The FPA was employed in various optimization applications, for example to estimate solar PV parameter [39, 40] , solving sudoku puzzles [41] , feature selection [42] , antenna design [43] , and other applications [44] [45] [46] [47] . Moreover, SSA is also an optimization algorithm proposed by Mirjalili et al. [48] inspired by the behavior of salp chains. In recent years, the SSA was utilized to solve different optimization problems, such as feature selection [49, 50] , data classification [51] , image segmentation [52] , and others [53, 54] . The proposed method called FPASSA is a hybrid of FPA and SSA, in which the SSA is applied as a local search method for FPA. The proposed FPASSA starts by receiving the historical COVID-19 dataset. Then a set of solutions is generated where each of them represents the value for the parameters of the ANFIS model. Then the quality of each solution is calculated using the fitness value, and the solution that has the best fitness value is chosen to represent the best solution. Then the probability of each solution is computed. Then the current solution will be updated, either using global or local strategy in FPA. However, in the case of local strategy, the operators of SSA or FPA will be used according to the probability of the fitness value for each solution. The process of updating the solutions is repeated until reaching the stop condition, and the best parameter configurations are used to forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The main contribution points of the current study are as follows: 1. We propose an efficient forecasting model to forecast the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China for the upcoming ten days based on previously confirmed cases. An improved ANFIS model is proposed using a modified FPA algorithm, using SSA. We compare the proposed model with the original ANFIS and existing modified ANFIS models, such as PSO, GA, ABC, and FPA. The rest of this study is organized as follows. The preliminaries of ANFIS, FPA, and SSA are described in Section 2. Section 3 presents the proposed FPASSA, and Section 4 presents the experimental setup and results. We conclude this study in Section 5. The principles of the ANFIS are given in this section. The ANFIS model links the fuzzy logic and neural networks [22] . It generates a mapping between the input and output by applying IF-THEN rules (it is also called Takagi-Sugeno inference model). Figure 1 illustrates the ANFIS model where, y and x define the inputs to Layer 1 whereas, O 1i is its output of node i that is computed as follows: where µ denotes the generalized Gaussian membership functions. A i and B i define the membership values of µ. α i and ρ i denote the premise parameters set. The output of Layer 2 (it is also known as the firing strength of a rule) is calculated as follows: Meanwhile, the output of Layer 3 (it is also known as the normalized firing strength) is calculated as follows: The output of Layer 4 (it is also known as an adaptive node) is calculated as follows: where r i , q i , and p i define the consequent parameters of the node i. Layer 5 contains only one node; its output is computed as: Flower Pollination Algorithm is an optimization method proposed by Yang [38] . It simulates the transfer of flowers' pollen by pollinators in nature. This algorithm utilizes the two types of pollination (i.e., self-pollination and cross-pollination). In self-pollination, the pollination occurs with no pollinators, whereas, in cross-pollination, the pollens are moved between different plants. In more detail, the self-pollination can be represented as a local pollination while the cross-pollination can be called global pollination. The global pollination or cross-pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i defines the pollen i at iteration t. L denotes the pollination's strength or the step size. F * is the target position or best solution. In some cases, insects can fly with different distance steps for a long space; therefore, Levy fly distribution is applied to simulate this movement. where λ = 1.5. Γ(λ) denotes the gamma function. This distribution is available for large steps s > 0. The self-pollination or local pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i and x k i represent pollens from different flower in the same plant. in the range [0,1] The process of pollination can be done using cross-pollination or self-pollination. Therefore, the random variable p, in the range [0, 1], is used to determine this process. SSA is an optimization technique introduced by [48] . It simulates the Salps' behavior in nature. This behavior is called salp chain. The mathematical model of SSA begins by splinting its population into a leader group and followers group. The leader is the front salp, whereas, the followers are the other salps. The search space is determined in n-dimensions with n variables. Equation (10) works to update the salps' positions. where x 1 j denotes the leader's position in j-th dimension. F j is the target position. ub j and lb j represent the max and min bounds, respectively. c 2 and c 3 denote random numbers in [0, 1]. c 1 is an important parameter; it balances between the exploration and exploitation phases. It is computed as follows: where the current loop number is t and the max loop' number is t max . Then, the followers' position is updated as follows: where x i j defines the i-th position of the follower in j-th dimension. i > 1. This section explains the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS method. It is a time series method for forecasting the confirmed cases of the COVID-19, as given in Figure 2 . The FPASSA-ANFIS utilizes the improved FPA to train the ANFIS model by optimizing its parameters. The FPASSA-ANFIS contains five layers as the classic ANFIS model. Layer 1 contains the input variables (the historical COVID-19 confirmed cases). Whereas Layer 5 produces the forecasted values. In the learning phase, the FPASSA is used to select the best weights between Layer 4 and Layer 5. The FPASSA-ANFIS starts by formatting the input data in a time series form. In our case, the autocorrelation function (ACF) was considered. ACF is one of the methods applied to find patterns in the data; it presents information about the correlation between points separated by various time lags. Therefore, in this paper, the variables with ACF greater than 0.2 are considered i.e., 5-lags. Besides, the training data contains 75% of the dataset, whereas the testing data contains 25% of them. The number of clusters is defined by the fuzzy c-mean (FCM) method to construct the ANFIS model. The parameters of the ANFIS model are prepared by the FPASSA algorithm. In the training phase, the calculation error (as in Equation (13)) between the real data and the predicted data is used to evaluate the parameters' quality. where T is the real data, and P is the predicted data. N s is the sample length. The smaller values of the objective function indicate good ANFIS's parameter. On the other hand, the updating phase of the followers' positions in the SSA algorithm is applied to improve the global pollination phase in the FPA algorithm. In this improvement, there is a random variable (r) used to switch between both phases. If r > 0.5, then the operators of the SSA is used; otherwise, the operators of the FPA are used. In general, The FPASSA starts by constructing the population (X); afterward, the objective function is calculated for each solution. The solution with the lowest error value is saved to the next iteration. This sequence is repeated until meeting the stop condition, which in this paper, is the maximum number of iterations. Then the best solution is passed to train the parameters of the ANFIS model. After finishing the training phase, the testing phase is started with the best solution to compute the final output. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the real data with the predicted data using the performance measures. Finally, the FPASSA produces a foretasted value for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China in the next day. The steps of the proposed FPASSA are presented in Algorithm 1. Input: Historical COVID-19 dataset, size of population N, total number of iterations t max . Divide the data into training and testing sets. Using Fuzzy c-mean method to determine the number of membership functions. Constructing the ANFIS network. Set the initial value for N solutions (X). Return the best solution that represents the best configuration for ANFIS. Apply the testing set to the best ANFIS model. Forecasting the COVID-19 for the next ten days. This section presents the description of the used dataset, the performance measures, the parameter setting for all methods, the experiment results, and discussions. The main dataset of this study is COVID-19 dataset. It was collected from the WHO website (https: //www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/). It contains the daily confirmed cases in China from 21 January 2020 to 18 February 2020, as shown in Table 1 . We used 75% from the dataset to train the model while the rest is used to test it. Moreover, we evaluated the performance of the proposed method using two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases. The first one is called DS1; it was collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/). It starts from week number 40 in 2015 and continues until week number 6 in 2020. Whereas, the second one is called DS2. It was collected from the WHO website (https://www.who.int/influenza). It contains the data of weekly influenza confirmed cases in China from week number 1 in 2016 to week number 8 in 2020. The quality of the proposed method is evaluated using a set of performance metrics as follows: • Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): where Yp and Y are the predicted and original values, respectively. • Mean Absolute Error (MAE): • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): • Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE): N s represents the sample size of the data. • Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ): where Y represents the average of Y. The lowest value of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and RMSRE refers to the best method. The higher value of R 2 indicates better correlation for the method. This paper aims to assess the ability of the FPASSA to forecast the COVID-19 by comparing its performance with other methods, namely the ANFIS and the trained ANFIS models using PSO, GA, ABC, FPA, and FPASSA. The parameters' setting for these models is listed in Table 2 . The common parameters, such as population size, are set to 25 and 100 iterations are applied. Besides, each algorithm is performed for 30 independent runs to fair comparisons. The selected parameters are chosen because they produced good behavior in previous experiments, such as [34, 35, 55, 56] . Table 2 . Parameters' setting. Parameters Setting Max. epochs = 100, Error goal = 0, Initial step = 0.01, Decrease rate = 0.9, Increase rate = 1. In this section, the performance of the proposed FPASSA to predict the DS1 and DS2 is discussed. It can be concluded from Table 3 that the performance of FPASSA outperformed the compared methods in all measures, whereas the FPA is ranked second. The results of DS2 indicate that the FPASSA is ranked first in terms of RMSE, MAPE, R 2 , and the CPU time. Whereas, the PSO is ranked second, followed by the FPA, GA, then ABC. These results denote that the proposed method can optimize the parameters of the ANFIS model effectively and produce good results in terms of the performance measures. Comparison results between the proposed FPASSA and other models to forecast COVID-19 are given in Table 4 . It can be concluded that the FPASSA outperforms other models. For example, by analyzing the results of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and CPU time(s) it can be observed that the FPASSA achieves the smallest value among the comparison algorithms, and this indicates the high quality of the FPASSA. Meanwhile, the FPA allocates the second rank, which provides better results than the rest of the methods. Moreover, the value of R 2 refers to the high correlation between the prediction obtained by the proposed FPASSA method and the original COVID-19, which has nearly 0.97. This can also be noticed from Figure 3 , which depicts the training of the algorithms using the historical data of the COVID-19 as well as their forecasting values for ten days. Table 5 depicts the forecasting value for the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China from 19/2/2020 to 28/2/2020. From these results, it can be noticed that the outbreak will reach its highest level on the day 28/2/2020. The average percentage of the increase over the forecasted period is 10%, the highest percentage is 12% on 28/2/2020, and the lowest percentage is 8.7% on 19/2/2020. From the previous results, it can be concluded that the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS has a high ability to forecast the COVID-19 dataset. These results avoid the limitations of traditional ANFIS because of the combination with the modified FPA method. Moreover, the operators of SSA are combined with the local strategy of FPA to enhance their exploitation ability. However, the time computational of the proposed FPASSA method still requires more improvements. This paper proposed a modified version for the flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). This modified version, called FPASSA, is applied to improve the performance of the ANFIS through determining the optimal value for its parameters. The developed FPASSA-ANFIS model is applied as a forecasting technique for a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, that was discovered in Wuhan, China at the end of last year and January of the current year. The proposed FPASSA-ANFIS model has a high ability to predict the number of confirmed cases within ten days. Besides, FPASSA-ANFIS outperforms other forecasting models in terms of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and R 2 . Furthermore, two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in the USA and China were used to evaluate the proposed method, and the evaluation outcomes showed its good performance. According to the promising results obtained by the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS, it can be applied in different forecasting applications.

What is PSO?

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

What is the presence of Ae.albopictus in North America?

Screening of FDA-Approved Drugs for Inhibitors of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Infection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5640845/ SHA: 1bd2f6497996fc0fccd8dffd7f84846d3d36f964 Authors: Wang, Shaobo; Liu, Yang; Guo, Jiao; Wang, Peilin; Zhang, Leike; Xiao, Gengfu; Wang, Wei Date: 2017-10-13 DOI: 10.1128/jvi.01055-17 License: cc-by Abstract: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), an arthropod-borne flavivirus, is a major cause of acute viral encephalitis in humans. No approved drug is available for the specific treatment of JEV infections, and the available vaccines are not effective against all clinical JEV isolates. In the study described here, a high-throughput screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV was performed. Five hit drugs that inhibited JEV infection with a selective index of >10 were identified. The antiviral activities of these five hit drugs against other flavivirus, including Zika virus, were also validated. As three of the five hit drugs were calcium inhibitors, additional types of calcium inhibitors that confirmed that calcium is essential for JEV infection, most likely during viral replication, were utilized. Adaptive mutant analysis uncovered that replacement of Q130, located in transmembrane domain 3 of the nonstructural NS4B protein, which is relatively conserved in flaviviruses, with R or K conferred JEV resistance to manidipine, a voltage-gated Ca(2+) channel (VGCC) inhibitor, without an apparent loss of the viral growth profile. Furthermore, manidipine was indicated to protect mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain, while it abrogated the histopathological changes associated with JEV infection. This study provides five antiflavivirus candidates and identifies cytoplasmic calcium to be a novel antiviral target for the treatment of JEV infection. The findings reported here provide therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. IMPORTANCE No approved therapy for the treatment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection is currently available. Repurposing of approved drugs would accelerate the development of a therapeutic stratagem. In this study, we screened a library of FDA-approved drugs and identified five hit drugs, especially calcium inhibitors, exerting antiflavivirus activity that blocked viral replication. The in vivo efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were investigated with a mouse model of JEV infection, and the viral target was identified by generating an adaptive mutant. Text: F laviviruses are taxonomically classified in the genus Flavivirus and family Flaviviridae. These viruses comprise over 70 different pathogens, such as Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus (DENV), West Nile virus (WNV), and yellow fever virus (YFV). Most flaviviruses are arthropod borne and cause public health problems worldwide (1) . The development and usage of vaccines against some flaviviruses, such as JEV, YFV, and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), have decreased the rates of morbidity and mortality from infections caused by these viruses (2) ; however, flavivirus-induced diseases are still pandemic, and few therapies beyond intensive supportive care are currently available. Flaviviruses have an approximately 11-kb positive-stranded RNA genome containing a single open reading frame (ORF) flanked by untranslated regions (UTRs) at both termini. The ORF encodes three structural proteins, including the capsid (C), membrane (premembrane [prM] and membrane [M] ), and envelope (E), and seven nonstructural proteins (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) (3) . These seven nonstructural proteins participate in viral replication, virion assembly, and virus escape from immune surveillance. To date, no specific antivirals with activity against flaviviruses are available. To address this, we conducted a screen of a library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs. Since flaviviruses are similar in structure and pathogenesis, we first utilized JEV as the prototype to screen the drug library and subsequently validated the antiviral activities with ZIKV, WNV, and DENV type 2 (DENV-2). The hit drugs identified in this study offer potential new therapies for the treatment of flavivirus infection and disease. Screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV infection. Recombinant viral particles (RVPs) with the luciferase-reporting replicon enveloped by the JEV structural proteins were used to select inhibitors, with a focus on those that inhibit virus entry and replication, by a high-throughput screening (HTS) assay (4, 5) . The number of genomic RNA copies of RVP was determined to be 8.4 ϫ 10 6 copies/ml by using a standard curve generated with plasmids carrying the infectious clone. The HTS assay conditions, including the seeding cell density and RVP dose, were optimized to be 10,000 cells per 96-well plate and 20 l (16 copies/cell) RVP for the infective dose, respectively. Under the optimized conditions, the signal-to-basal (S/B) ratio, coefficient of variation (CV), and Z= factor were 38,374, 2.8%, and 0.89, respectively, which demonstrated that the assay was robust and suitable for the large-scale screening of compounds. A schematic of the HTS assay is depicted in Fig. 1B . After three rounds of screening, five hits with a selective index (SI; which is equal to the 50% cytotoxic concentration [CC 50 [/50% inhibitory concentration [IC 50 ]) of Ͼ10 were selected. The CC 50 values of the hit drugs exhibited in Fig. 1B were similar to those previously published for diverse cell systems but determined using different toxicity assays (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) . Three of the hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were dihydropyridine (DHP) voltage-gated Ca 2ϩ channel (VGCC) antagonists, while pimecrolimus is an inhibitor of inflammatory cytokine secretion and nelfinavir mesylate is an HIV-1 protease blocker. All five drugs exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV RVP infection (Fig. 1C) . To validate the antiviral effect, hit drugs were purchased from other commercial sources and tested. In the reconfirmation screen, all hit drugs showed antiviral and cytotoxic effects similar to those found in the primary screen. Validation of hit drugs. To verify the results obtained by the luciferase reporter assays, we also investigated the antiviral effect of the five hit drugs on wild-type JEV strain AT31. As expected from the HTS assay, all five drugs robustly inhibited virus production, with a reduction of approximately 4 to 5 log units at the highest concentration and an approximately 1-log-unit decrease with 2.5 M the drugs (Fig. 2B) . A sharp decrease in JEV RNA levels was also detected (Fig. 2C) . The attenuated RNA levels in the high-dose, middle-dose, and low-dose groups were all above 40%. In particular, in the manidipine-treated group, the inhibitory effect was at least 80% compared to that for the control, which showed a strong inhibition of viral replication. Consistent with the inhibition of virus replication and production, expression of the viral structural protein prM was hardly detectable following treatment with the drugs at the high concentration (Fig. 2D) . Overall, the results in Fig. 2 confirmed that the five hit drugs inhibited JEV infection in a dose-dependent manner in vitro. Drugs inhibit JEV infection during viral RNA synthesis. Because RVPs, which have a natural virus-like envelope on the outside and a replicon on the inside, permitted the quantification of JEV productive entry and replication, a time-of-addition experiment was performed to investigate whether the hit drugs blocked the entry step or the replication step. As shown in Fig. 3B , no suppression of luciferase activity by any of the hit drugs was observed when they were used as treatments before infection or during infection or as a virucide, suggesting that these drugs do not inhibit JEV infection either by inactivating the virus directly or by blocking JEV entry. However, these drugs exerted fully inhibitory effects when they were added at 1 h postinfection, suggesting that viral replication was the stage at which these drugs showed inhibitory activity. To confirm this suggestion, we investigated the inhibitory effects of these drugs on the JEV replicon. The highest concentration of manidipine and nelfinavir mesylate tested in baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cells was adjusted to 5 M and 10 M, respectively. It was shown that all five drugs inhibited JEV RNA synthesis in a dosedependent manner, while neither drug inhibited the initial translation of replicon RNA (5, 14) (Fig. 3C) , confirming that these drugs inhibited JEV infection at the stage of replication. Hit drugs exhibit broad-spectrum antiflavivirus activity. In order to determine whether the antiviral activity of the five hit drugs extended to other flaviviruses, we explored their antiviral effect against ZIKV. Similar to the findings for JEV, the ZIKV titer was decreased by multiple log units when ZIKV was treated with a high concentration of each of the drugs (Fig. 4A) . Moreover, ZIKV exhibited a higher sensitivity to the two calcium channels inhibitors manidipine and cilnidipine than JEV, with no plaque formation being observed at 10 M. Consistent with this result, sharp decreases in the level of replication of ZIKV RNA and the level of expression of viral protein were also detected (Fig. 4A) . Notably, treatment with 5 M manidipine produced a 95% inhibition of viral replication, translation, and viral yields. Taken together, these results indicate that the hit drugs could effectively inhibit ZIKV infection. Since these drugs exhibited their anti-JEV effects at the stage of viral replication, we further tested the effects against WNV and DENV-2 by using WNV and DENV-2 replicons. Similar to the results for JEV, a dose-dependent reduction in the level of WNV replication was observed with the drug treatments. The same phenotype was observed for DENV-2 for all drugs except nelfinavir mesylate, which showed no effect at the concentrations tested ( Fig. 4B and C). Together, these results indicate that the five hit drugs are excellent candidates for broad-spectrum antiflavivirus treatment. Antiviral effect of calcium inhibitors. Since three hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were DHP VGCC inhibitors, we asked whether other calcium antagonists could block JEV infection. To address this question, we employed four different classes of inhibitors. Verapamil, a prototype phenylalkylamine (PAA) VGCC inhibitor (15) , exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV on both African Green monkey kidney (Vero) and human hepatocellular carcinoma (Huh-7) cells (Fig. 5) , which was consistent with the inhibitory effects of the DHP inhibitors, suggesting that calcium channels play an important role in JEV infection. Cyclosporine and 2-aminobiphenyl borate (2-APB), which inhibit the efflux of Ca 2ϩ from the mitochondrial and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) pool, respectively (16) (17) (18) (19) , were also found to block JEV infection effectively. Similarly, treatment with the cell-permeant Ca 2ϩ chelator 1,2-bis-(o-aminophenoxy)-ethane-N,N,N=,N=-tetraacetic acid, tetraacetoxymethyl ester (BAPTA-AM), could also suppress JEV infection. Taken together, we concluded that intracellular Ca 2ϩ is essential for JEV infection and cytoplasmic calcium is a potent target for antiflavivirus treatment. Selection and characterization of manidipine-resistant JEV. To identify the viral target of the calcium channel inhibitor, we selected a manidipine-resistant virus by serially passaging JEV in the presence of manidipine. Viruses from passage 20 (P20) showed robust resistance compared with the wild type (WT) (Fig. 6A ). When JEV from P20 was treated with 5 M or 10 M manidipine, the viral titer was about 10-and 100-fold higher than that of the WT, respectively. Individual virus clones were isolated, and two isolates were randomly selected and amplified. An amino acid substitution was observed in two isolated clones, resulting in a glutamine (Q)-to-arginine (R) switch at amino acid position 130 in transmembrane domain 3 (TMD3) of NS4B, i.e., position 2401 of the translated polyprotein in the JEV infectious cDNA clone (Fig. 6B ). Sequence alignment of NS4B indicated that Q130 was conserved in all flaviviruses except YFV, which possessed a lysine at that position (Fig. 6B) . The conserved Q130 of NS4B may account for the sensitivity of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2 to manidipine, as described above (Fig. 4) , while YFV showed resistance to the drug (data not shown). To confirm that the Q130R mutation did confer manidipine resistance and to investigate the role of Q130 in NS4B function, we produced JEV clones with the Q130R, Q130K, Q130E, or Q130A mutation by introducing the desired mutations into the infectious cDNA clone and rescuing the mutant viruses. To investigate the biological properties of the mutant viruses, we first examined the growth kinetics of the rescued viruses. As shown in Fig. 6C , all mutant viruses had an accumulation of infectious virions and reached the highest titer at 60 h postinfection. Infection of the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses resulted in growth curves similar to the growth curve for the WT (Fig. 6C) , while the Q130E and Q130A mutants produced smaller amounts of viruses between 24 and 60 h. Analysis of the plaque morphology revealed that the plaques of the Q130R, Q130K, and Q130E mutants were similar to the plaques of the WT, whereas the plaques of the Q130A mutant were smaller than those of the WT. We next investigated the sensitivity of the four mutant viruses to manidipine. As shown in Fig. 6D , the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine. At a 10 M concentration, manidipine efficiently inhibited WT JEV infection and reduced the viral yields by approximately 4 log units, while the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine and the viral titer decreased less than 2 log units. The Q130A mutant virus demonstrated moderate resistance and a slightly higher Taken together, it could be concluded that Q130 not only is critical for conferring manidipine sensitivity but also is important for JEV replication. The replacement of glutamine with basic amino acids conferred resistance to manidipine without an apparent loss of growth. In vivo efficacy of manidipine. As manidipine exhibited the strongest inhibitory activities on JEV replication as well as ZIKV infection when its activities were compared with those of the five hit drugs (Fig. 2 and 4A) , we further examined the protective effect of manidipine against JEV-induced lethality in a mouse model. As anticipated, mice in the JEV-infected vehicle-treated group started to show symptoms, including limb paralysis, restriction of movement, piloerection, body stiffening, and whole-body tremor, from day 5 postinfection. Within 21 days postinfection, most mice in the JEV-infected group succumbed to the infection, with the mortality rate being 73% (4 out of 15 animals survived). Manidipine treatment following JEV infection reduced the mortality rate to 20% (12 out of 15 animals survived) (Fig. 7A ). Mice treated with manidipine alone or treated with manidipine and infected with JEV showed little abnormal behavior, similar to the findings for the mice in the vehicle-treated group. These results suggest that manidipine provided effective protection against JEVinduced mortality. To further relate these protective effects to the viral load and histopathological changes in the mouse brains, the viral titer was determined and mouse brain sections were collected and assayed at day 5 and day 21 postinfection, since mice started to show symptoms of JEV infection from day 5 postinfection and most of the surviving mice had recovered at day 21. The results indicated that, during the progression of the disease, manidipine treatment significantly reduced the viral load in infected mice compared to that in infected mice not receiving treatment, while no plaques formed in either the manidipine-or vehicle-treated group, and viral loads were undetectable in each group on day 21 postinfection (Fig. 7B) . As JEV was rapidly cleared from the blood after inoculation and was present in the lymphatic system during the preclinical phase, the effects of manidipine on infection of serum and the spleen were evaluated at earlier time points to detect whether the drug reduced the peripheral viral loads (20, 21) . As shown in Fig. 7C , manidipine had little effect on peripheral JEV infection, which indicated that manidipine protected the mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain. Similarly, apparent damage in the brain, including meningitis, perivascular cuffing, vacuolar degeneration, and glial nodules, was observed in the JEV-infected and vehicle-treated group on day 5 postinfection, while manidipine treatment remarkably alleviated these phenomena (Fig. 7D) . These results indicate that the alleviation of histopathological changes was accompanied by a reduction in the viral load as well as a reduction in the rate of mortality, further confirming the curative effects of manidipine on viral encephalitis. Among the five hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride were VGCC inhibitors. It has been well documented in the literature that Ca 2ϩ inhibitors serve to inhibit virus infection at the stage of either entry (15, 22) or replication (18) and even at the stage of budding (23) . To this end, we first reviewed all 21 calcium inhibitors included in the current library of FDA-approved drugs and found that, in addition to the four DHP VGCC inhibitors listed in Fig. 1B , two other calcium inhibitors, i.e., flunarizine dihydrochloride and lomerizine hydrochloride, were also identified to be primary candidates with levels of inhibition of Ͼ90%. Similarly, three calcium channel antagonists, nisoldipine, felodipine, and nicardipine hydrochloride, showed levels of inhibition of 75%, 72%, and 66%, respectively, in the primary screen. Together, 9 of the 21 calcium inhibitors in the library, accounting for nearly half of the calcium inhibitors, exhibited levels of flavivirus inhibition of greater than 50%, suggesting that calcium, especially the calcium channel, is a potential antiviral target. To address this, another type of VGCC inhibitor, verapamil, an FDA-approved drug not yet included in the drug library used in this study, was investigated. Likewise, a Ca 2ϩ chelator, BAPTA-AM, as well as the Ca 2ϩ inhibitors 2-APB and cyclosporine, targeting ER and the mitochondrial Ca 2ϩ channel, respectively, were employed to investigate the response of JEV infection to the decrease in intracellular Ca 2ϩ levels. In line with the activities of the three hit DHP VGCC inhibitor drugs, the additional Ca 2ϩ inhibitors exerted anti-JEV activity, which indicated that Ca 2ϩ is indispensable for JEV infection. Thus, Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might be utilized as effective treatments for flavivirus infection. As the hit drugs exerted full inhibitory activity when they were added posttreatment, we believe that Ca 2ϩ is important for flavivirus genome replication. Furthermore, selection and genetic analysis of drug-resistant viruses revealed that NS4B is the viral target of manidipine. NS4B is part of the viral replication complex and is supposed to anchor the viral replicase to the ER membrane (24) . Meanwhile, the N-terminal 125amino-acid domain of DENV NS4B was indicated to be responsible for inhibition of the immune response (25) . Notably, several structurally distinct compounds have been identified to inhibit flavivirus replication by intensively targeting the TMD of NS4B (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) . It is thus conceivable that inhibitors targeting TMD of NS4B would perturb its function, leading to the suppression of viral RNA replication. In this study, the replacement of Q130 of NS4B with a basic amino acid conferred the resistance effect without suppressing JEV replication, suggesting that position 130 could tolerate a basic amino acid and that the basic amino acid might be involved in the interplay of NS4B with host proteins rather than viral proteins. Moreover, the efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were monitored in vivo, with manidipine demonstrating effective antiviral activity with favorable biocompatibility. However, the dose used in this study was higher than the dose typically used clinically, representing one of the scenarios most commonly encountered in drug repurposing (33, 34) . As manidipine was approved for use for the long-term treatment of hypertension (35, 36) , pulse-dose treatment with manidipine over the shorter period of time required for the treatment of virus infection might be relatively safe. Moreover, use of a combination of manidipine with other Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might improve its therapeutic efficacy, reduce its toxicity, and reduce the risk of resistance development (37) (38) (39) . Besides the three VGCC inhibitors, two hit drugs, pimecrolimus and nelfinavir mesylate, showed equivalent inhibitory activities on the replication of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2. Although there has been no report on the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of infectious diseases, we showed that it had a robust effect against JEV with an SI of Ͼ32. The maximum plasma concentration (C max ) of nelfinavir mesylate achieved with an adult dose was 3 to 4 g/ml (40) , which was comparable to the IC 50 reported here. Notably, nelfinavir mesylate was confirmed to inhibit herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and the replication of several other herpesviruses by interfering directly or indirectly with the later steps of virus formation, such as glycoprotein maturation or virion release, other than functioning in herpesviruses protease (41, 42) . Whether nelfinavir mesylate inhibits flavivirus by interference with the virus protease or by other off-target effects is unknown. Understanding of the mechanism of the antiflavivirus effects of these drugs might uncover novel targets of the drugs, providing further insight into the pathogenesis of flaviviruses. Above all, the findings reported here provide novel insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying flavivirus infection and offer new and promising therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. Cells and viruses. BHK-21, SH-SY5Y (human neuroblastoma), Vero, and Huh-7 cells were cultured in Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (HyClone, Logan, UT, USA) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (Gibco, Grand Island, NY, USA). JEV strain AT31, the WNV replicon, and the DENV-2 replicon expressing Renilla luciferase (Rluc) were kindly provided by Bo Zhang, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China. JEV replicon recombinant viral particles (RVPs) were generated as previously described (4, 5) . ZIKV strain H/PF/2013, kindly provided by the European Virus Archive Goes Global, was propagated and titrated in Vero cells. Optimization of HTS assay conditions. The cell density and RVP dose were optimized for the HTS assay. Vero cells at different densities (2,500 to 12,500 cells per well) were infected with from 1.25 to 20 l RVPs (1 to 16 copies per well). The appropriate cell density as well as the RVP dose was selected by comparing the S/B ratio, CV, and Z= values under different conditions as previously described (43) . Methyl-␤-cyclodextrin and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) were used as positive and negative controls, respectively. HTS assay of an FDA-approved compound library. A library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs was purchased from Selleck Chemicals (Houston, TX, USA). The compounds were stored as 10 mM stock solutions in DMSO at 4°C until use. The first round of the HTS assay was carried out as shown in Fig. 1A . The criteria used to identify the primary candidates were no apparent cytotoxicity and an average level of inhibition of Ͼ90% in duplicate wells. The criteria of dose-dependent inhibition and cell viability of Ͼ80% were applied for the reconfirmation screen. Furthermore, the CC 50 of each compound was calculated, and those compounds displaying SIs over 10 were considered hits in this study. Identification of antiviral effects of five hit drugs. The antiviral effects of the drugs were evaluated by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR), immunofluorescence assay (IFA), and plaque assay as previously reported (44) (45) (46) (47) . The experimental timeline is depicted in Fig. 2A . To ensure the effectiveness of the hit drugs in flavivirus replication, BHK-21 cells transfected with the JEV, WNV, or DENV-2 replicon were incubated with each drug at the concentrations indicated above, and the luciferase activities were determined 24 h, 48 h, or 72 h later, respectively. Time-of-addition experiment. To evaluate which stage of the JEV life cycle was inhibited by each hit, a time-of-addition experiment was performed as previously described (43) . Vero cells were infected with 20 l RVPs for 1 h (0 to 1 h). The test compounds were incubated with the cells for 1 h before infection (Ϫ1 to 0 h), during infection (0 to 1 h), and for 23 h postinfection (1 to 24 h) (Fig. 3A) . To exclude a possible direct inactivating effect of the drugs, RVPs were incubated with each drug at 37°C for 1 h, and the mixtures were diluted 25-fold to infect Vero cells. Twenty-four hours later, the luciferase activities were determined as described above (Fig. 3A) . Manidipine-resistant virus. Manidipine-resistant virus was generated by passaging of JEV on Vero cells in the presence of manidipine. Passages 1 to 10 used 5 M manidipine, and passages 11 to 20 used 10 M manidipine. As a control, WT virus was passaged in the presence of 2% DMSO in parallel. Passaging was terminated at passage 20, when no further improvement in resistance was detected. Two manidipine-resistant virus isolates were plaque purified and amplified in the presence of manidipine. Viral RNA was extracted, amplified, and purified for sequencing. An infectious cDNA clone of JEV, strain AT31 (pMWJEAT), kindly provided by T. Wakita, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neuroscience, was used to recover WT and mutant viruses as described previously (4) . Virus titers and manidipine sensitivities were determined by plaque assay in Vero cells. Manidipine administration to JEV-infected mice. Adult female BALB/c mice (age, 4 weeks) were kept in the Laboratory Animal Center of Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China). The mice were randomly divided into four groups (30 mice per group): a JEV-infected and vehicle (2% Tween 80 plus 5% DMSO in phosphate-buffered saline [PBS])-treated group, a manidipine-treated group, a JEV-infected and manidipine-treated group, and a vehicle-treated group. For infection, mice were infected intraperitoneally with 5 ϫ 10 6 PFU of JEV strain AT31. For the manidipine and vehicle treatments, mice were injected intraperitoneally with 25 mg/kg of body weight manidipine or PBS with 2% Tween 80 and 5% DMSO, respectively. Treatments were administered twice a day for the first 2 days and then consecutively administered once a day for up to 21 days. Five mice from each group were sacrificed on days 1, 3, and 5 postinfection. Serum, spleen tissue, and brain tissue samples were collected for viral titer determination and histopathology investigation. Fifteen mice were monitored daily for morbidity and mortality. The mice that showed neurological signs of disease were euthanized according to the Regulations for the Administration of Affairs Concerning Experimental Animals in China. The protocols were reviewed and approved by the Laboratory Animal Care and Use Committee at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China).

What is the selective index in high throughput screening?

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Seth Flaxmani Swapnil Mishra*, Axel Gandy*, H JulietteT Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba’, Gina Cuomo—Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Wi|| Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Ben Jeffrey, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati—Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Kris Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver Watson, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, NeilM.Ferguson1and Samir Bhatt*1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul LatifJameeI Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London Department of Statistics, University of Oxford *Contributed equally 1Correspondence: nei|.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk, s.bhatt@imperial.ac.uk Summary Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national Iockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number— a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of Iockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented a|| interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-Z up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% ofthe population. The proportion of the population infected to date — the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-Z is slowing. SUGGESTED CITATION Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy et 0/. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non— pharmaceutical interventions on COVID—19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 1 Introduction Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its global spread, large epidemics of the disease, caused by the virus designated COVID-19, have emerged in Europe. In response to the rising numbers of cases and deaths, and to maintain the capacity of health systems to treat as many severe cases as possible, European countries, like those in other continents, have implemented or are in the process of implementing measures to control their epidemics. These large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions vary between countries but include social distancing (such as banning large gatherings and advising individuals not to socialize outside their households), border closures, school closures, measures to isolate symptomatic individuals and their contacts, and large-scale lockdowns of populations with all but essential internal travel banned. Understanding firstly, whether these interventions are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic and secondly, which interventions are necessary to maintain control, is critical given their large economic and social costs. The key aim ofthese interventions is to reduce the effective reproduction number, Rt, ofthe infection, a fundamental epidemiological quantity representing the average number of infections, at time t, per infected case over the course of their infection. Ith is maintained at less than 1, the incidence of new infections decreases, ultimately resulting in control of the epidemic. If Rt is greater than 1, then infections will increase (dependent on how much greater than 1 the reproduction number is) until the epidemic peaks and eventually declines due to acquisition of herd immunity. In China, strict movement restrictions and other measures including case isolation and quarantine began to be introduced from 23rd January, which achieved a downward trend in the number of confirmed new cases during February, resulting in zero new confirmed indigenous cases in Wuhan by March 19th. Studies have estimated how Rt changed during this time in different areas ofChina from around 2-4 during the uncontrolled epidemic down to below 1, with an estimated 7-9 fold decrease in the number of daily contacts per person.1'2 Control measures such as social distancing, intensive testing, and contact tracing in other countries such as Singapore and South Korea have successfully reduced case incidence in recent weeks, although there is a riskthe virus will spread again once control measures are relaxed.3'4 The epidemic began slightly laterin Europe, from January or later in different regions.5 Countries have implemented different combinations of control measures and the level of adherence to government recommendations on social distancing is likely to vary between countries, in part due to different levels of enforcement. Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-Z presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by health systems”7 and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high-risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systematically biased view of trends. An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back-calculate infections from observed deaths. Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable, although the early focus of most surveillance systems on cases with reported travel histories to China may mean that some early deaths will have been missed. Whilst the recent trends in deaths will therefore be informative, there is a time lag in observing the effect of interventions on deaths since there is a 2-3-week period between infection, onset of symptoms and outcome. In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds (Bayesian credible intervals) of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities, and the reproduction number over time (Rt). We fit the model jointly to COVID-19 data from all these countries to assess whether there is evidence that interventions have so far been successful at reducing Rt below 1, with the strong assumption that particular interventions are achieving a similar impact in different countries and that the efficacy of those interventions remains constant over time. The model is informed more strongly by countries with larger numbers of deaths and which implemented interventions earlier, therefore estimates of recent Rt in countries with more recent interventions are contingent on similar intervention impacts. Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation of country-specific Rt with greater precision. Model and data details are presented in the appendix, validation and sensitivity are also presented in the appendix, and general limitations presented below in the conclusions. 2 Results The timing of interventions should be taken in the context of when an individual country’s epidemic started to grow along with the speed with which control measures were implemented. Italy was the first to begin intervention measures, and other countries followed soon afterwards (Figure 1). Most interventions began around 12th-14th March. We analyzed data on deaths up to 28th March, giving a 2-3-week window over which to estimate the effect of interventions. Currently, most countries in our study have implemented all major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For each country, we model the number of infections, the number of deaths, and Rt, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced (Figure 2- 12). Rt is the average number of secondary infections per infected individual, assuming that the interventions that are in place at time t stay in place throughout their entire infectious period. Every country has its own individual starting reproduction number Rt before interventions take place. Specific interventions are assumed to have the same relative impact on Rt in each country when they were introduced there and are informed by mortality data across all countries. Figure l: Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. For further details see Appendix 8.6. 2.1 Estimated true numbers of infections and current attack rates In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected (Figure 2) than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity. In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th, giving an attack rate of 9.8% [3.2%-25%] of the population (Table 1). Spain has recently seen a large increase in the number of deaths, and given its smaller population, our model estimates that a higher proportion of the population, 15.0% (7.0 [18-19] million people) have been infected to date. Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% with 600,000 [240,000-1,500,000] people infected. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table l: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible intervall) Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%] Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%] Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%] France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%] Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%] Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%] Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%] Spain 15% [3.7%-41%] Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%] Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%] United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] 2.2 Reproduction numbers and impact of interventions Averaged across all countries, we estimate initial reproduction numbers of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66], which is in line with other estimates.1'8 These estimates are informed by our choice of serial interval distribution and the initial growth rate of observed deaths. A shorter assumed serial interval results in lower starting reproduction numbers (Appendix 8.4.2, Appendix 8.4.6). The initial reproduction numbers are also uncertain due to (a) importation being the dominant source of new infections early in the epidemic, rather than local transmission (b) possible under-ascertainment in deaths particularly before testing became widespread. We estimate large changes in Rt in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. Overall, we cannot yet conclude whether current interventions are sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (posterior probability of being less than 1.0 is 44% on average across the countries). We are also unable to conclude whether interventions may be different between countries or over time. There remains a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. It is too early to detect substantial intervention impact in many countries at earlier stages of their epidemic (e.g. Germany, UK, Norway). Many interventions have occurred only recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the time lag between infection and death. This uncertainty will reduce as more data become available. For all countries, our model fits observed deaths data well (Bayesian goodness of fit tests). We also found that our model can reliably forecast daily deaths 3 days into the future, by withholding the latest 3 days of data and comparing model predictions to observed deaths (Appendix 8.3). The close spacing of interventions in time made it statistically impossible to determine which had the greatest effect (Figure 1, Figure 4). However, when doing a sensitivity analysis (Appendix 8.4.3) with uninformative prior distributions (where interventions can increase deaths) we find similar impact of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team interventions, which shows that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Figure 2: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt. Left: daily number of infections, brown bars are reported infections, blue bands are predicted infections, dark blue 50% credible interval (CI), light blue 95% CI. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if the Rt is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle: daily number of deaths, brown bars are reported deaths, blue bands are predicted deaths, CI as in left plot. Right: time-varying reproduction number Rt, dark green 50% CI, light green 95% CI. Icons are interventions shown at the time they occurred. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table 2: Totalforecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to 31 March in our model and in a counterfactual model (assuming no intervention had taken place). Estimated averted deaths over this time period as a result of the interventions. Numbers in brackets are 95% credible intervals. 2.3 Estimated impact of interventions on deaths Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31 March under ourfitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and R, = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3). Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments —WA|C). By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000- 84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted. These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. lfwe were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher. Figure 3: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for (a) Italy and (b) Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. Other countries are shown in Appendix 8.6. 03/0 25% 50% 753% 100% (no effect on transmissibility) (ends transmissibility Relative % reduction in R. Figure 4: Our model includes five covariates for governmental interventions, adjusting for whether the intervention was the first one undertaken by the government in response to COVID-19 (red) or was subsequent to other interventions (green). Mean relative percentage reduction in Rt is shown with 95% posterior credible intervals. If 100% reduction is achieved, Rt = 0 and there is no more transmission of COVID-19. No effects are significantly different from any others, probably due to the fact that many interventions occurred on the same day or within days of each other as shown in Figure l. 3 Discussion During this early phase of control measures against the novel coronavirus in Europe, we analyze trends in numbers of deaths to assess the extent to which transmission is being reduced. Representing the COVlD-19 infection process using a semi-mechanistic, joint, Bayesian hierarchical model, we can reproduce trends observed in the data on deaths and can forecast accurately over short time horizons. We estimate that there have been many more infections than are currently reported. The high level of under-ascertainment of infections that we estimate here is likely due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community. Despite this, only a small minority of individuals in each country have been infected, with an attack rate on average of 4.9% [l.9%-ll%] with considerable variation between countries (Table 1). Our estimates imply that the populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity ("50-75% if R0 is 2-4). Further, with Rt values dropping substantially, the rate of acquisition of herd immunity will slow down rapidly. This implies that the virus will be able to spread rapidly should interventions be lifted. Such estimates of the attack rate to date urgently need to be validated by newly developed antibody tests in representative population surveys, once these become available. We estimate that major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact on the time- varying reproduction numbers in countries where there has been time to observe intervention effects on trends in deaths (Italy, Spain). lfadherence in those countries has changed since that initial period, then our forecast of future deaths will be affected accordingly: increasing adherence over time will have resulted in fewer deaths and decreasing adherence in more deaths. Similarly, our estimates of the impact ofinterventions in other countries should be viewed with caution if the same interventions have achieved different levels of adherence than was initially the case in Italy and Spain. Due to the implementation of interventions in rapid succession in many countries, there are not enough data to estimate the individual effect size of each intervention, and we discourage attributing associations to individual intervention. In some cases, such as Norway, where all interventions were implemented at once, these individual effects are by definition unidentifiable. Despite this, while individual impacts cannot be determined, their estimated joint impact is strongly empirically justified (see Appendix 8.4 for sensitivity analysis). While the growth in daily deaths has decreased, due to the lag between infections and deaths, continued rises in daily deaths are to be expected for some time. To understand the impact of interventions, we fit a counterfactual model without the interventions and compare this to the actual model. Consider Italy and the UK - two countries at very different stages in their epidemics. For the UK, where interventions are very recent, much of the intervention strength is borrowed from countries with older epidemics. The results suggest that interventions will have a large impact on infections and deaths despite counts of both rising. For Italy, where far more time has passed since the interventions have been implemented, it is clear that the model without interventions does not fit well to the data, and cannot explain the sub-linear (on the logarithmic scale) reduction in deaths (see Figure 10). The counterfactual model for Italy suggests that despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe where the number of new deaths would have been 3.7 times higher (38,000 deaths averted) than currently observed. Even in the UK, much earlier in its epidemic, the recent interventions are forecasted to avert 370 total deaths up to 31 of March. 4 Conclusion and Limitations Modern understanding of infectious disease with a global publicized response has meant that nationwide interventions could be implemented with widespread adherence and support. Given observed infection fatality ratios and the epidemiology of COVlD-19, major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact in reducing transmission in countries with more advanced epidemics. It is too early to be sure whether similar reductions will be seen in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic. While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths. When forecasting 3 days and looking over the whole epidemic the number of deaths averted is substantial. We note that substantial innovation is taking place, and new more effective interventions or refinements of current interventions, alongside behavioral changes will further contribute to reductions in infections. We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism. Our approach is semi-mechanistic. We propose a plausible structure for the infection process and then estimate parameters empirically. However, many parameters had to be given strong prior distributions or had to be fixed. For these assumptions, we have provided relevant citations to previous studies. As more data become available and better estimates arise, we will update these in weekly reports. Our choice of serial interval distribution strongly influences the prior distribution for starting R0. Our infection fatality ratio, and infection-to-onset-to-death distributions strongly influence the rate of death and hence the estimated number of true underlying cases. We also assume that the effect of interventions is the same in all countries, which may not be fully realistic. This assumption implies that countries with early interventions and more deaths since these interventions (e.g. Italy, Spain) strongly influence estimates of intervention impact in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic with fewer deaths (e.g. Germany, UK). We have tried to create consistent definitions of all interventions and document details of this in Appendix 8.6. However, invariably there will be differences from country to country in the strength of their intervention — for example, most countries have banned gatherings of more than 2 people when implementing a lockdown, whereas in Sweden the government only banned gatherings of more than 10 people. These differences can skew impacts in countries with very little data. We believe that our uncertainty to some degree can cover these differences, and as more data become available, coefficients should become more reliable. However, despite these strong assumptions, there is sufficient signal in the data to estimate changes in R, (see the sensitivity analysis reported in Appendix 8.4.3) and this signal will stand to increase with time. In our Bayesian hierarchical framework, we robustly quantify the uncertainty in our parameter estimates and posterior predictions. This can be seen in the very wide credible intervals in more recent days, where little or no death data are available to inform the estimates. Furthermore, we predict intervention impact at country-level, but different trends may be in place in different parts of each country. For example, the epidemic in northern Italy was subject to controls earlier than the rest of the country. 5 Data Our model utilizes daily real-time death data from the ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), where we catalogue case data for 11 European countries currently experiencing the epidemic: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The ECDC provides information on confirmed cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19. However, the case data are highly unrepresentative of the incidence of infections due to underreporting as well as systematic and country-specific changes in testing. We, therefore, use only deaths attributable to COVID-19 in our model; we do not use the ECDC case estimates at all. While the observed deaths still have some degree of unreliability, again due to changes in reporting and testing, we believe the data are ofsufficient fidelity to model. For population counts, we use UNPOP age-stratified counts.10 We also catalogue data on the nature and type of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. We looked at the government webpages from each country as well as their official public health division/information webpages to identify the latest advice/laws being issued by the government and public health authorities. We collected the following: School closure ordered: This intervention refers to nationwide extraordinary school closures which in most cases refer to both primary and secondary schools closing (for most countries this also includes the closure of otherforms of higher education or the advice to teach remotely). In the case of Denmark and Sweden, we allowed partial school closures of only secondary schools. The date of the school closure is taken to be the effective date when the schools started to be closed (ifthis was on a Monday, the date used was the one of the previous Saturdays as pupils and students effectively stayed at home from that date onwards). Case-based measures: This intervention comprises strong recommendations or laws to the general public and primary care about self—isolation when showing COVID-19-like symptoms. These also include nationwide testing programs where individuals can be tested and subsequently self—isolated. Our definition is restricted to nationwide government advice to all individuals (e.g. UK) or to all primary care and excludes regional only advice. These do not include containment phase interventions such as isolation if travelling back from an epidemic country such as China. Public events banned: This refers to banning all public events of more than 100 participants such as sports events. Social distancing encouraged: As one of the first interventions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have published advice on social distancing including the recommendation to work from home wherever possible, reducing use ofpublictransport and all other non-essential contact. The dates used are those when social distancing has officially been recommended by the government; the advice may include maintaining a recommended physical distance from others. Lockdown decreed: There are several different scenarios that the media refers to as lockdown. As an overall definition, we consider regulations/legislations regarding strict face-to-face social interaction: including the banning of any non-essential public gatherings, closure of educational and public/cultural institutions, ordering people to stay home apart from exercise and essential tasks. We include special cases where these are not explicitly mentioned on government websites but are enforced by the police (e.g. France). The dates used are the effective dates when these legislations have been implemented. We note that lockdown encompasses other interventions previously implemented. First intervention: As Figure 1 shows, European governments have escalated interventions rapidly, and in some examples (Norway/Denmark) have implemented these interventions all on a single day. Therefore, given the temporal autocorrelation inherent in government intervention, we include a binary covariate for the first intervention, which can be interpreted as a government decision to take major action to control COVID-19. A full list of the timing of these interventions and the sources we have used can be found in Appendix 8.6. 6 Methods Summary A Visual summary of our model is presented in Figure 5 (details in Appendix 8.1 and 8.2). Replication code is available at https://github.com/|mperia|CollegeLondon/covid19model/releases/tag/vl.0 We fit our model to observed deaths according to ECDC data from 11 European countries. The modelled deaths are informed by an infection-to-onset distribution (time from infection to the onset of symptoms), an onset-to-death distribution (time from the onset of symptoms to death), and the population-averaged infection fatality ratio (adjusted for the age structure and contact patterns of each country, see Appendix). Given these distributions and ratios, modelled deaths are a function of the number of infections. The modelled number of infections is informed by the serial interval distribution (the average time from infection of one person to the time at which they infect another) and the time-varying reproduction number. Finally, the time-varying reproduction number is a function of the initial reproduction number before interventions and the effect sizes from interventions. Figure 5: Summary of model components. Following the hierarchy from bottom to top gives us a full framework to see how interventions affect infections, which can result in deaths. We use Bayesian inference to ensure our modelled deaths can reproduce the observed deaths as closely as possible. From bottom to top in Figure 5, there is an implicit lag in time that means the effect of very recent interventions manifest weakly in current deaths (and get stronger as time progresses). To maximise the ability to observe intervention impact on deaths, we fit our model jointly for all 11 European countries, which results in a large data set. Our model jointly estimates the effect sizes of interventions. We have evaluated the effect ofour Bayesian prior distribution choices and evaluate our Bayesian posterior calibration to ensure our results are statistically robust (Appendix 8.4). 7 Acknowledgements Initial research on covariates in Appendix 8.6 was crowdsourced; we thank a number of people across the world for help with this. This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and CommunityJameel. 8 Appendix: Model Specifics, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 8.1 Death model We observe daily deaths Dam for days t E 1, ...,n and countries m E 1, ...,p. These daily deaths are modelled using a positive real-Valued function dam = E(Dam) that represents the expected number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Dam is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with The expected number of deaths (1 in a given country on a given day is a function of the number of infections C occurring in previous days. At the beginning of the epidemic, the observed deaths in a country can be dominated by deaths that result from infection that are not locally acquired. To avoid biasing our model by this, we only include observed deaths from the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths in our model. To mechanistically link ourfunction for deaths to infected cases, we use a previously estimated COVID- 19 infection-fatality-ratio ifr (probability of death given infection)9 together with a distribution oftimes from infection to death TE. The ifr is derived from estimates presented in Verity et al11 which assumed homogeneous attack rates across age-groups. To better match estimates of attack rates by age generated using more detailed information on country and age-specific mixing patterns, we scale these estimates (the unadjusted ifr, referred to here as ifr’) in the following way as in previous work.4 Let Ca be the number of infections generated in age-group a, Na the underlying size of the population in that age group and AR“ 2 Ca/Na the age-group-specific attack rate. The adjusted ifr is then given by: ifra = fififié, where AR50_59 is the predicted attack-rate in the 50-59 year age-group after incorporating country-specific patterns of contact and mixing. This age-group was chosen as the reference as it had the lowest predicted level of underreporting in previous analyses of data from the Chinese epidemic“. We obtained country-specific estimates of attack rate by age, AR“, for the 11 European countries in our analysis from a previous study which incorporates information on contact between individuals of different ages in countries across Europe.12 We then obtained overall ifr estimates for each country adjusting for both demography and age-specific attack rates. Using estimated epidemiological information from previous studies,“'11 we assume TE to be the sum of two independent random times: the incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms or infection- to-onset) distribution and the time between onset of symptoms and death (onset-to-death). The infection-to-onset distribution is Gamma distributed with mean 5.1 days and coefficient of variation 0.86. The onset-to-death distribution is also Gamma distributed with a mean of 18.8 days and a coefficient of va riation 0.45. ifrm is population averaged over the age structure of a given country. The infection-to-death distribution is therefore given by: um ~ ifrm ~ (Gamma(5.1,0.86) + Gamma(18.8,0.45)) Figure 6 shows the infection-to-death distribution and the resulting survival function that integrates to the infection fatality ratio. Figure 6: Left, infection-to-death distribution (mean 23.9 days). Right, survival probability of infected individuals per day given the infection fatality ratio (1%) and the infection-to-death distribution on the left. Using the probability of death distribution, the expected number of deaths dam, on a given day t, for country, m, is given by the following discrete sum: The number of deaths today is the sum of the past infections weighted by their probability of death, where the probability of death depends on the number of days since infection. 8.2 Infection model The true number of infected individuals, C, is modelled using a discrete renewal process. This approach has been used in numerous previous studies13'16 and has a strong theoretical basis in stochastic individual-based counting processes such as Hawkes process and the Bellman-Harris process.”18 The renewal model is related to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, except the renewal is not expressed in differential form. To model the number ofinfections over time we need to specify a serial interval distribution g with density g(T), (the time between when a person gets infected and when they subsequently infect another other people), which we choose to be Gamma distributed: g ~ Gamma (6.50.62). The serial interval distribution is shown below in Figure 7 and is assumed to be the same for all countries. Figure 7: Serial interval distribution g with a mean of 6.5 days. Given the serial interval distribution, the number of infections Eamon a given day t, and country, m, is given by the following discrete convolution function: _ t—1 Cam — Ram ZT=0 Cr,mgt—‘r r where, similarto the probability ofdeath function, the daily serial interval is discretized by fs+0.5 1.5 gs = T=s—0.Sg(T)dT fors = 2,3, and 91 = fT=Og(T)dT. Infections today depend on the number of infections in the previous days, weighted by the discretized serial interval distribution. This weighting is then scaled by the country-specific time-Varying reproduction number, Ram, that models the average number of secondary infections at a given time. The functional form for the time-Varying reproduction number was chosen to be as simple as possible to minimize the impact of strong prior assumptions: we use a piecewise constant function that scales Ram from a baseline prior R0,m and is driven by known major non-pharmaceutical interventions occurring in different countries and times. We included 6 interventions, one of which is constructed from the other 5 interventions, which are timings of school and university closures (k=l), self—isolating if ill (k=2), banning of public events (k=3), any government intervention in place (k=4), implementing a partial or complete lockdown (k=5) and encouraging social distancing and isolation (k=6). We denote the indicator variable for intervention k E 1,2,3,4,5,6 by IkI’m, which is 1 if intervention k is in place in country m at time t and 0 otherwise. The covariate ”any government intervention” (k=4) indicates if any of the other 5 interventions are in effect,i.e.14’t’m equals 1 at time t if any of the interventions k E 1,2,3,4,5 are in effect in country m at time t and equals 0 otherwise. Covariate 4 has the interpretation of indicating the onset of major government intervention. The effect of each intervention is assumed to be multiplicative. Ram is therefore a function ofthe intervention indicators Ik’t’m in place at time t in country m: Ram : R0,m eXp(— 212:1 O(Rheum)- The exponential form was used to ensure positivity of the reproduction number, with R0,m constrained to be positive as it appears outside the exponential. The impact of each intervention on Ram is characterised by a set of parameters 0(1, ...,OL6, with independent prior distributions chosen to be ock ~ Gamma(. 5,1). The impacts ock are shared between all m countries and therefore they are informed by all available data. The prior distribution for R0 was chosen to be R0,m ~ Normal(2.4, IKI) with K ~ Normal(0,0.5), Once again, K is the same among all countries to share information. We assume that seeding of new infections begins 30 days before the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths. From this date, we seed our model with 6 sequential days of infections drawn from cl’m,...,66’m~EXponential(T), where T~Exponential(0.03). These seed infections are inferred in our Bayesian posterior distribution. We estimated parameters jointly for all 11 countries in a single hierarchical model. Fitting was done in the probabilistic programming language Stan,19 using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. We ran 8 chains for 4000 iterations with 2000 iterations of warmup and a thinning factor 4 to obtain 2000 posterior samples. Posterior convergence was assessed using the Rhat statistic and by diagnosing divergent transitions of the HMC sampler. Prior-posterior calibrations were also performed (see below). 8.3 Validation We validate accuracy of point estimates of our model using cross-Validation. In our cross-validation scheme, we leave out 3 days of known death data (non-cumulative) and fit our model. We forecast what the model predicts for these three days. We present the individual forecasts for each day, as well as the average forecast for those three days. The cross-validation results are shown in the Figure 8. Figure 8: Cross-Validation results for 3-day and 3-day aggregatedforecasts Figure 8 provides strong empirical justification for our model specification and mechanism. Our accurate forecast over a three-day time horizon suggests that our fitted estimates for Rt are appropriate and plausible. Along with from point estimates we all evaluate our posterior credible intervals using the Rhat statistic. The Rhat statistic measures whether our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains have converged to the equilibrium distribution (the correct posterior distribution). Figure 9 shows the Rhat statistics for all of our parameters Figure 9: Rhat statistics - values close to 1 indicate MCMC convergence. Figure 9 indicates that our MCMC have converged. In fitting we also ensured that the MCMC sampler experienced no divergent transitions - suggesting non pathological posterior topologies. 8.4 SensitivityAnalysis 8.4.1 Forecasting on log-linear scale to assess signal in the data As we have highlighted throughout in this report, the lag between deaths and infections means that it ta kes time for information to propagate backwa rds from deaths to infections, and ultimately to Rt. A conclusion of this report is the prediction of a slowing of Rt in response to major interventions. To gain intuition that this is data driven and not simply a consequence of highly constrained model assumptions, we show death forecasts on a log-linear scale. On this scale a line which curves below a linear trend is indicative of slowing in the growth of the epidemic. Figure 10 to Figure 12 show these forecasts for Italy, Spain and the UK. They show this slowing down in the daily number of deaths. Our model suggests that Italy, a country that has the highest death toll of COVID-19, will see a slowing in the increase in daily deaths over the coming week compared to the early stages of the epidemic. We investigated the sensitivity of our estimates of starting and final Rt to our assumed serial interval distribution. For this we considered several scenarios, in which we changed the serial interval distribution mean, from a value of 6.5 days, to have values of 5, 6, 7 and 8 days. In Figure 13, we show our estimates of R0, the starting reproduction number before interventions, for each of these scenarios. The relative ordering of the Rt=0 in the countries is consistent in all settings. However, as expected, the scale of Rt=0 is considerably affected by this change — a longer serial interval results in a higher estimated Rt=0. This is because to reach the currently observed size of the epidemics, a longer assumed serial interval is compensated by a higher estimated R0. Additionally, in Figure 14, we show our estimates of Rt at the most recent model time point, again for each ofthese scenarios. The serial interval mean can influence Rt substantially, however, the posterior credible intervals of Rt are broadly overlapping. Figure 13: Initial reproduction number R0 for different serial interval (SI) distributions (means between 5 and 8 days). We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. Figure 14: Rt on 28 March 2020 estimated for all countries, with serial interval (SI) distribution means between 5 and 8 days. We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. 8.4.3 Uninformative prior sensitivity on or We ran our model using implausible uninformative prior distributions on the intervention effects, allowing the effect of an intervention to increase or decrease Rt. To avoid collinearity, we ran 6 separate models, with effects summarized below (compare with the main analysis in Figure 4). In this series of univariate analyses, we find (Figure 15) that all effects on their own serve to decrease Rt. This gives us confidence that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Lockdown has a very large effect, most likely due to the fact that it occurs after other interventions in our dataset. The relatively large effect sizes for the other interventions are most likely due to the coincidence of the interventions in time, such that one intervention is a proxy for a few others. Figure 15: Effects of different interventions when used as the only covariate in the model. 8.4.4 To assess prior assumptions on our piecewise constant functional form for Rt we test using a nonparametric function with a Gaussian process prior distribution. We fit a model with a Gaussian process prior distribution to data from Italy where there is the largest signal in death data. We find that the Gaussian process has a very similartrend to the piecewise constant model and reverts to the mean in regions of no data. The correspondence of a completely nonparametric function and our piecewise constant function suggests a suitable parametric specification of Rt. Nonparametric fitting of Rf using a Gaussian process: 8.4.5 Leave country out analysis Due to the different lengths of each European countries’ epidemic, some countries, such as Italy have much more data than others (such as the UK). To ensure that we are not leveraging too much information from any one country we perform a ”leave one country out” sensitivity analysis, where we rerun the model without a different country each time. Figure 16 and Figure 17 are examples for results for the UK, leaving out Italy and Spain. In general, for all countries, we observed no significant dependence on any one country. Figure 16: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Italy for fitting the model. See the Figure 17: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Spain for fitting the model. See caption of Figure 2 for an explanation of the plots. 8.4.6 Starting reproduction numbers vs theoretical predictions To validate our starting reproduction numbers, we compare our fitted values to those theoretically expected from a simpler model assuming exponential growth rate, and a serial interval distribution mean. We fit a linear model with a Poisson likelihood and log link function and extracting the daily growth rate r. For well-known theoretical results from the renewal equation, given a serial interval distribution g(r) with mean m and standard deviation 5, given a = mZ/S2 and b = m/SZ, and a subsequently R0 = (1 + %) .Figure 18 shows theoretically derived R0 along with our fitted estimates of Rt=0 from our Bayesian hierarchical model. As shown in Figure 18 there is large correspondence between our estimated starting reproduction number and the basic reproduction number implied by the growth rate r. R0 (red) vs R(FO) (black) Figure 18: Our estimated R0 (black) versus theoretically derived Ru(red) from a log-linear regression fit. 8.5 Counterfactual analysis — interventions vs no interventions Figure 19: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for all countries except Italy and Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 Page 28 of 35 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 8.6 Data sources and Timeline of Interventions Figure 1 and Table 3 display the interventions by the 11 countries in our study and the dates these interventions became effective. Table 3: Timeline of Interventions. Country Type Event Date effective School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.20 14/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of gatherings of more than 5 people.21 10/3/2020 Banning all access to public spaces and gatherings Lockdown of more than 5 people. Advice to maintain 1m ordered distance.22 16/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Recommendation to maintain a distance of 1m.22 16/3/2020 Case-based Austria measures Implemented at lockdown.22 16/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.23 14/3/2020 Public events All recreational activities cancelled regardless of banned size.23 12/3/2020 Citizens are required to stay at home except for Lockdown work and essential journeys. Going outdoors only ordered with household members or 1 friend.24 18/3/2020 Public transport recommended only for essential Social distancing journeys, work from home encouraged, all public encouraged places e.g. restaurants closed.23 14/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Belgium measures cough or fever.25 10/3/2020 School closure Secondary schools shut and universities (primary ordered schools also shut on 16th).26 13/3/2020 Public events Bans of events >100 people, closed cultural banned institutions, leisure facilities etc.27 12/3/2020 Lockdown Bans of gatherings of >10 people in public and all ordered public places were shut.27 18/3/2020 Limited use of public transport. All cultural Social distancing institutions shut and recommend keeping encouraged appropriate distance.28 13/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Denmark measures cough or fever.29 12/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.30 14/3/2020 Public events banned Bans of events >100 people.31 13/3/2020 Lockdown Everybody has to stay at home. Need a self- ordered authorisation form to leave home.32 17/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/3/2020 Case-based France measures Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/03/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.33 14/3/2020 Public events No gatherings of >1000 people. Otherwise banned regional restrictions only until lockdown.34 22/3/2020 Lockdown Gatherings of > 2 people banned, 1.5 m ordered distance.35 22/3/2020 Social distancing Avoid social interaction wherever possible encouraged recommended by Merkel.36 12/3/2020 Advice for everyone experiencing symptoms to Case-based contact a health care agency to get tested and Germany measures then self—isolate.37 6/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.38 5/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans all public events.39 9/3/2020 Lockdown The government closes all public places. People ordered have to stay at home except for essential travel.40 11/3/2020 A distance of more than 1m has to be kept and Social distancing any other form of alternative aggregation is to be encouraged excluded.40 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing symptoms Italy measures and quarantine if tested positive.41 9/3/2020 Norwegian Directorate of Health closes all School closure educational institutions. Including childcare ordered facilities and all schools.42 13/3/2020 Public events The Directorate of Health bans all non-necessary banned social contact.42 12/3/2020 Lockdown Only people living together are allowed outside ordered together. Everyone has to keep a 2m distance.43 24/3/2020 Social distancing The Directorate of Health advises against all encouraged travelling and non-necessary social contacts.42 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Norway measures cough or fever symptoms.44 15/3/2020 ordered Nationwide school closures.45 13/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of all public events by lockdown.46 14/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Nationwide lockdown.43 14/3/2020 Social distancing Advice on social distancing and working remotely encouraged from home.47 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Spain measures cough or fever symptoms.47 17/3/2020 School closure ordered Colleges and upper secondary schools shut.48 18/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >500 people.49 12/3/2020 Lockdown ordered No lockdown occurred. NA People even with mild symptoms are told to limit Social distancing social contact, encouragement to work from encouraged home.50 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Sweden measures fever symptoms.51 10/3/2020 School closure ordered No in person teaching until 4th of April.52 14/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >100 people.52 13/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Gatherings of more than 5 people are banned.53 2020-03-20 Advice on keeping distance. All businesses where Social distancing this cannot be realised have been closed in all encouraged states (kantons).54 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Switzerland measures fever symptoms.55 2/3/2020 Nationwide school closure. Childminders, School closure nurseries and sixth forms are told to follow the ordered guidance.56 21/3/2020 Public events banned Implemented with lockdown.57 24/3/2020 Gatherings of more than 2 people not from the Lockdown same household are banned and police ordered enforceable.57 24/3/2020 Social distancing Advice to avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other encouraged public institutions.58 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a UK measures cough or fever symptoms.59 12/3/2020 9 References 1. Li, R. et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (2020) doi:10.1126/science.abb3221. 2. Zhang, J. et al. Patterns of human social contact and contact with animals in Shanghai, China. 5cLRep.9,1—11(2019) 3. Worldometers.info. Hong Kong: coronavirus cases. https://www.wo rldometers.info/co ronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/. 4. Ferguson, N. et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand (Report 9). https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious- disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/. 5. Cereda, D. et al. The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy. arXiv (2020). 6. Zhao, A. J. et al. Title: Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in patients of novel coronavirus disease 2019 Brief Title : Antibody responses in COVID-19 patients. (2020). 7. Jombart, T. et al. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. medRXiV 2020.03.10.20033761(2020)doi:10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761. 8. Zhang, J. et al. Age profile of susceptibility, mixing, and social distancing shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China. (2020) doi:10.1101/2020.03.19.20039107. 9. Lourenco, J. et al. Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. doi:10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291 10. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booket. ST/ESA/SER.A/424. (2019). 11. Verity, R. et al. Estimates ofthe severity of COVID-19 disease. Lancet Infect Dis in press, (2020). 12. Walker, P. G. T. et al. Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. 13. Fraser, C. Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic. PL05 ONE 2, e758 (2007). 14. Cori, A., Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C. & Cauchemez, S. A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics. Am. J. Epidemiol. 178, 1505—1512 (20131 15. Nouvellet, P. et al. A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics 22, 29—35 (2018). 16. Cauchemez, 8., Valleron, A. J., Boelle, P. Y., Flahault, A. & Ferguson, N. M. Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature 452, 750—754 (2008). 17. Bellman, R. & Harris, T. On Age-Dependent Binary Branching Processes. Ann. Math. 55, 280— 295(19521 18. Bellman, R. & Harris, T. E. On the Theory of Age-Dependent Stochastic Branching Processes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 34, 601—604 (1948). 19. Stan Development Team. 2018. The Stan Core Library, Version 2.18.0. http://mc-stan.org. 20. Bundesministerium. Coronavirus (COVID-19): Status quo — Schulen, Hochschulen, Universitaten und Forschungsinstitutionen. https://www.bmbwf.gv.at/Ministerium/Informationspflicht/corona/corona_status.html. 21. Henley, J. Coronavirus: EU states enact tough measures to stem spread. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-several-eu-states-ban-mass-events- after-italian-lockdown (2020). 22. Bundesministerium. Coronavirus - Aktuelle MaBnahmen. https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/Coronavirus—Aktuelle- MaBnahmen.html (2020). 23. Federal Public Service. Coronavirus : Phase 2 maintained, transition to the federal phase and additional measures. https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/2020/03/12/phase-2-maintained- transition-to-the-federal-phase-and-additional-measures/ (2020). 24. Belgium.be. Coronavirus: reinforced measures | Belgium.be. https://www.belgium.be/en/news/2020/coronavirus_reinforced_measures (2020). 25. Federal Public Service. Protect yourself and protect the others. https://www.info- coronavirus.be/en/2020/03/10/protect-yourself—and-protect-the-others/ (2020). 26. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Denmark. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark. 27. Stephensen, Emma K|inker; Hansen, T. S. Danmark lukker ned: Her er regeringens nye tiltag. TV2 https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-03-11-danmark-lukker-ned-her-er-regeringens-nye-tiltag (20201 28. Politi. Nye tiltag mod covid-19. Politi https://politi.dk/coronavirus-i-danmark/seneste-nyt-fra- myndighederne/nye-tiltag-mod-covid-19 (2020). 29. Styrelsen for Patientsikkerhed. Indberetning om covid-19zlnformation om mulighed for p\aabud til enkeltpersoner (coronavirus/covid-19). https://stps.dk/da/ansvar-og- retningslinjer/vejledning/indberetning-om-covid-19/#. 30. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in France. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_France. 31. The Local. France bans gatherings of more than 100 people as coronavirus death toll rises - The Local. The Local https://www.thelocal.fr/20200313/france-bans-gatherings-of—over-100-people- to-fight-coronavirus-pandemic (2020). 32. Henley, Jon; Willsher, Kim; Kassam, A. Coronavirus: France imposes lockdown as EU calls for 30-day travel ban. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/coronavirus- spain-takes-over-private-healthcare-amid-more-european-lockdowns (2020). 33. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Germany. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany. 34. BMI. Coronavirus: Fragen und Antworten. Bundesministerium des Innern,fur Bau und Heimat https://web.archive.org/web/20200317073042/https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/faqs/DE/the men/bevoelkerungsschutz/coronavirus/coronavirus-faqs.htmI#doc13738352bodyText7. 35. BBC News. Coronavirus: Germany tightens curbs and bans meetings of more than two. BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51999080 (2020). 36. Bundesregierung. Kanzlerin trifft Regierungschefs der Lander Sozialkontakte vermeiden, Ausbreitung verlangsamen. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/coronavirus/mpk- 1730186(2020) 37. Robert Koch Institut. Antworten auf haufig gestellte Fragen zum Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Robert Koch Institut https://web.archive.org/web/20200312004624/https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/FAQ/NCOV2019/F AQ_Liste.html (2020). 38. Ministero della Salute. Governo annuncia sospensione dell’attivita didattica dal 5 a|15 marzo. Ministero della Salute http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioVideoNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=ita liano&menu=multimedia&p=video&id=2052 (2020). 39. CNN. Italy prohibits travel and cancels all public events in its northern region. CNN https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/08/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-europe-intl/index.html (2020). 40. Attualita. Coronavirus: stop a pub, cinema, teatro e discoteche anche a Roma. Ecco cosa prevede il nuovo decreto. Roma Today https://www.romatoday.it/attualita/coronavirus-pub-cinema- teatri-locali-chiusi-nuovo-decreto.html (2020). 41. Gazzetta Ufficiale. DECRETO DEL PRESIDENTE DEL CONSIGLIO DEl MINISTRI. Gazzetta Ufflclale https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2020/03/08/20A01522/sg (2020). 42. Helsedirektoratet. The Norwegian Directorate of Health has issued a decision to close schools and other educational institutions. Helsedirektoratet https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/nyheter/the- norwegian-directorate-of—health-has-issued-a-decision-to-close-schools-and-other-educationa|- institutions (2020). 43. Krostensen, Mette; Hellem-Hansen, Viktoria L.; Tandstad, B. Folkehelseinstituttet mener 23.000 kan vaere smittet. NRK https://www.nrk.no/norge/folkehelseinstituttet-mener-23.000-kan- vaere-smittet-1.14958149 (2020). 44. Norweigen Government. The Government is establishing clear quarantine and isolation rules. regjeringen.no https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/the-government-is-establishing-clear- quarantine-and-isolation-rules/id2693647/ (2020). 45. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Spain. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Spain. 46. Gabinete de Prensa. El Gobierno anuncia nuevas medidas para evitar la extension del nuevo coronavirus COVID-19. Gobierno de Espana https://www.mscbs.gob.es/gabinete/notasPrensa.do?id=4807 (2020). 47. Gabinete de Prensa. El Consejo Interterritorial del SNS acuerda medidas concretas para zonas con transmision comunitaria significativa de coronavirus. Gobierno de Espana https://www.mscbs.gob.es/gabinete/notasPrensa.do?id=4806 (2020). 48. Folkhalsomyndigheten. Larosaten och gymnasieskolor uppmanas nu att bedriva distansundervisning. Folkhdlsomyndigheten https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och- press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/mars/larosaten-och-gymnasieskolor-uppmanas-nu-att-bedriva- distansundervisning(2020). 49. The Local. Sweden bans large events to halt coronavirus spread. The Local https://www.theloca|.se/20200311/sweden-to-ban-large-public-gatherings-over-coronavirus (2020). 50. Radosevich. Stockholmers urged to work from home as COVID-19 community spread confirmed. Sveriges Radio https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7430511(2020). 51. Folkhalsomyndigheten. Flera tecken p\aa samhallsspridning av covid-19 i Sverige. Folkhdlsomyndigheten https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och- press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/mars/flera-tecken-pa-samhallsspridning-av-covid-19-i-sverige/ (2020). 52. Bundesamt fur Gesendheit BAG. Bundesrat verscharft Massnahmen gegen das Coronavirus zum Schutz der Gesundheit und unterstUtzt betroffene Branchen. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das-bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78437.html (20201 53. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Coronavirus: Bundesrat verbietet Ansammlungen von mehr als fUnf Personen. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das- bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78513.html (2020). 54. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Coronavirus: Bundesrat erklart die «ausserordentliche Lage» und verscharft die Massnahmen. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das-bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78454.html (20201 55. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Neue Hygiene- und Verhaltensregeln zum Schutz gegen das neue Coronavirus. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das- bag/a ktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78304.html (2020). 56. UK Government, D. for E. Schools, colleges and early years settings to close. UK Government https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schools-colleges-and-early-years-settings-to-close (2020). 57. UK Government. PM address to the nation on coronavirus: 23 March 2020. UK Government https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-23-march- 2020(20201 58. Boycott-Owen, Mason; Bowman, Verity; Kelly-Linden, Jordan; Gartner, A. G. H. S. T. Coronavirus: Boris Johnson puts UK in lockdown as death tolls reaches 55. The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-latest- update-covid-19-death-toll-cases/ (2020). 59. BBC News. Coronavirus: People with fever or ’continuous’ cough told to self—isolate. BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856 (2020).

What was the estimated effect on China's reproduction number in March based on the intervention introduced in January?

Species‐specific clinical characteristics of human coronavirus infection among otherwise healthy adolescents and adults https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5820427/ SHA: edfe02a438fa9b667313da8f03614303fc2a4a14 Authors: Bouvier, Monique; Chen, Wei‐Ju; Arnold, John C.; Fairchok, Mary P.; Danaher, Patrick J.; Lalani, Tahaniyat; Malone, Leslie; Mor, Deepika; Ridoré, Michelande; Burgess, Timothy H.; Millar, Eugene V. Date: 2018-02-02 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12538 License: cc-by Abstract: Human coronavirus (HCoV) is a known cause of influenza‐like illness (ILI). In a multisite, observational, longitudinal study of ILI among otherwise healthy adolescents and adults, 12% of subjects were PCR‐positive for HCoV. The distribution of species was as follows: HCoV‐OC43 (34%), HCoV‐229E (28%), HCoV‐NL63 (22%), and HCoV‐HKU1 (16%). We did not observe species‐specific differences in the clinical characteristics of HCoV infection, with the exception of HCoV‐HKU1, for which the severity of gastrointestinal symptoms trended higher on the fourth day of illness. Text: Clinical manifestations of human coronavirus (HCoV) infection range from a mild, self-limiting illness of the upper respiratory tract to an acute respiratory distress syndrome with a high mortality rate. Highly virulent species of HCoV were responsible for outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); case-fatality rates ranged from 14% to 45%. [1] [2] [3] By contrast, other HCoV species (HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-229E) are much more prevalent, much less severe, and common causes of influenza-like illness (ILI). [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] Five previous studies have described the species-specific clinical characteristics of HCoV infection among adults. 6, 7, [10] [11] [12] In two of these studies, a significant proportion of the study population had underlying medical conditions. 6, 7 Herein, we describe, among a cohort of otherwise healthy adolescents and adults with influenza-like illness (ILI), the species-specific prevalence and severity of symptoms associated with HCoV infection. 13 Patients 0-65 years of age and presenting for care <72 hours after onset of ILI symptoms were recruited for study participation. ILI was defined as a temperature ≥100.4°F and sore throat or one of the following respiratory symptoms: cough, sputum production, shortness of breath, or chest pain. Both inpatient and outpatient subjects were eligible to participate. Patients with underlying medical conditions (eg, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, severe asthma), women with a high-risk or complicated pregnancy, and patients with a poorly controlled psychiatric disorder were excluded. Information on patient demographics and presence/severity of symptoms at the time of enrollment was collected by in-person interview. Participants were then instructed on the use of a daily diary to record the presence/severity of symptoms for 7 days following initial symptom onset. Symptom severity was rated on an ordinal scale from 0 (none) to 3 (severe). Symptom severity scores were quantified using the following five measures: (i) individual symptom score for 20 symptoms, (ii) the upper respiratory symptom score, calculated as the sum of severity scores for earache, runny nose, sore throat, and sneezing, (iii) the lower respiratory symptom score, calculated as the sum of severity scores for cough, difficulty breathing, hoarseness, and chest discomfort, (iv) the gastrointestinal symptom score, calculated as the sum of severity scores for diarrhea, vomiting, anorexia, nausea, and (Table 1) . There was season-to-season variability in the leading causes of The findings of our study, conducted over a 5-year period at five geographically dispersed sites in the USA, demonstrate that human coronavirus (HCoV) is an important cause of influenza-like illness (ILI) ranged from 4% to 22%. [8] [9] [10] [11] 14 Additionally, we found HCoV-OC43 to be the most common species among adults, as has been reported elsewhere. 8, 9, 11, 12, 14 HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E were the most common strains in alternate seasons, reflecting a season-to-season variability of HCoV strain circulation that has been reported in other multiyear studies. 4 8 The mechanisms by which this particular species elicits these symptoms are not known. The strengths of this study of HCoV in otherwise healthy adolescents and adults include its multisite and multiyear design, the use of a multiplex diagnostic panel, the prospective collection of symptom data, and the use of a symptom severity scale similar to what has been employed previously. 15 One important limitation of this study was our selective recruitment of individuals who had presented to a healthcare facility for care of an ILI. Therefore, our cases are not representative of HCoV infection in the community, where individuals with mild, self-limiting illness due to HCoV opt not to seek medical care for the management of their ILI. In summary, we have shown that HCoV is a significant cause of ILI among otherwise healthy adolescents and adults presenting for medical evaluation. Although there were differences in species distribution by age group, we did not detect any differences between species with respect to the clinical spectrum of disease.

What were the common HCOV strains in the 5 year USA study?

Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030674 SHA: 1d7f8850c5244fdc9b387038e7eeae9bcbbde6d2 Authors: Al-Qaness, Mohammed A. A.; Ewees, Ahmed A.; Fan, Hong; Abd El Aziz, Mohamed Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030674 License: cc-by Abstract: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances. Text: A large family of viruses, called coronaviruses, are severe pathogens for human beings, which infect respiratory, hepatic, gastrointestinal, and neurologic diseases. They are distributed among humans, birds, livestock, mice, bats, and other wild animals [1] [2] [3] . The outbreaks of two previous coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in 2003 and 2012, respectively, have approved the transmission from animal to animal, and human to human [4] . In December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) received notifications from China for many cases of respiratory illness that were linked to some people who had visited a seafood market in Wuhan [5] . Currently, Wuhan city suffers from the spreading of a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19 (previously, it was called 2019-nCoV). In [6] , the authors concluded that COVID-19 likely originated in bats, because it is more similar to two bat-derived coronavirus strains. However, the source of the COVID-19 is not confirmed yet, and it communities, Hong Kong and Toronto, were 1.2 and 1.32, respectively. Ong et al. [20] proposed a monitoring and forecasting model for influenza A (H1N1-2009). Furthermore, Nah et al. [21] proposed a probability-based model to predict the spread of the MERS. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) [22] is widely applied in time series prediction and forecasting problems, and it showed good performance in many existing applications. It offers flexibility in determining nonlinearity in the time series data, as well as combining the properties of both artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic systems. It has been applied in various forecasting applications, for example, in [23] , a stock price forecasting model was proposed using ANFIS and empirical mode decomposition. Chen et al. [24] proposed a TAIEX time series forecasting model based on a hybrid of ANFIS and ordered weighted averaging (OWA). In [25] , another time series forecasting method was presented for electricity prices based on ANFIS. Svalina et al. [26] proposed an ANFIS based forecasting model for close price indices for a stock market for five days. Ekici and Aksoy [27] presented an ANFIS based building energy consumption forecasting model. More so, ANFIS is also applied to forecast electricity loads [28] . Kumar et al. [29] proposed an ANFIS based model to forecast return products. Ho and Tsai [30] applied ANFIS to forecast product development performance. However, estimating ANFIS parameters is a challenge that needs to be improved. Therefore, in previous studies, some individual swarm intelligence (SI) methods have been applied to the ANFIS parameters to enhance time series forecasting because these parameters have a significant effect on the performance of ANFIS. The SI methods include the particle swarm optimization (PSO) [31, 32] , social-spider optimization [33] , sine-cosine algorithm (SCA) [34] , and multi-verse optimizer (MVO) [35] . For example, in [34] SCA algorithm was applied to improve the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in three countries, namely, Canada, Germany, and Japan. In the same context, in [35] , The MVO algorithm was used to enhance the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in two countries. In addition, in [36] the PSO was used with ANFIS to predict biochar yield. However, individual SI algorithms may stock at local optima. Therefore, one solution is to apply hybrid SI algorithms to avoid this problem. In [37] , a hybrid of two SI algorithms, namely GA and SSA, was presented to improve the ANFIS model. The proposed new model called GA-SSA-ANFIS was applied to forecast crude oil prices for long-term time series data. However, the previously mentioned methods suffer from some limitations that can affect the performance of the forecasting output such as slow convergence and the ability to balance between exploration and exploitation phases can influence the quality of the final output. This motivated us to propose an alternative forecasting method dependent on the hybridization concept. This concept avoids the limitations of traditional SI techniques by combining the strengths of different techniques, and this produces new SI techniques that are better than traditional ones. In the current study, we propose an improved ANFIS model based on a modified flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). The FPA is an optimization algorithm proposed by Yang [38] , which was inspired by the flow pollination process of the flowering plants. The FPA was employed in various optimization applications, for example to estimate solar PV parameter [39, 40] , solving sudoku puzzles [41] , feature selection [42] , antenna design [43] , and other applications [44] [45] [46] [47] . Moreover, SSA is also an optimization algorithm proposed by Mirjalili et al. [48] inspired by the behavior of salp chains. In recent years, the SSA was utilized to solve different optimization problems, such as feature selection [49, 50] , data classification [51] , image segmentation [52] , and others [53, 54] . The proposed method called FPASSA is a hybrid of FPA and SSA, in which the SSA is applied as a local search method for FPA. The proposed FPASSA starts by receiving the historical COVID-19 dataset. Then a set of solutions is generated where each of them represents the value for the parameters of the ANFIS model. Then the quality of each solution is calculated using the fitness value, and the solution that has the best fitness value is chosen to represent the best solution. Then the probability of each solution is computed. Then the current solution will be updated, either using global or local strategy in FPA. However, in the case of local strategy, the operators of SSA or FPA will be used according to the probability of the fitness value for each solution. The process of updating the solutions is repeated until reaching the stop condition, and the best parameter configurations are used to forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The main contribution points of the current study are as follows: 1. We propose an efficient forecasting model to forecast the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China for the upcoming ten days based on previously confirmed cases. An improved ANFIS model is proposed using a modified FPA algorithm, using SSA. We compare the proposed model with the original ANFIS and existing modified ANFIS models, such as PSO, GA, ABC, and FPA. The rest of this study is organized as follows. The preliminaries of ANFIS, FPA, and SSA are described in Section 2. Section 3 presents the proposed FPASSA, and Section 4 presents the experimental setup and results. We conclude this study in Section 5. The principles of the ANFIS are given in this section. The ANFIS model links the fuzzy logic and neural networks [22] . It generates a mapping between the input and output by applying IF-THEN rules (it is also called Takagi-Sugeno inference model). Figure 1 illustrates the ANFIS model where, y and x define the inputs to Layer 1 whereas, O 1i is its output of node i that is computed as follows: where µ denotes the generalized Gaussian membership functions. A i and B i define the membership values of µ. α i and ρ i denote the premise parameters set. The output of Layer 2 (it is also known as the firing strength of a rule) is calculated as follows: Meanwhile, the output of Layer 3 (it is also known as the normalized firing strength) is calculated as follows: The output of Layer 4 (it is also known as an adaptive node) is calculated as follows: where r i , q i , and p i define the consequent parameters of the node i. Layer 5 contains only one node; its output is computed as: Flower Pollination Algorithm is an optimization method proposed by Yang [38] . It simulates the transfer of flowers' pollen by pollinators in nature. This algorithm utilizes the two types of pollination (i.e., self-pollination and cross-pollination). In self-pollination, the pollination occurs with no pollinators, whereas, in cross-pollination, the pollens are moved between different plants. In more detail, the self-pollination can be represented as a local pollination while the cross-pollination can be called global pollination. The global pollination or cross-pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i defines the pollen i at iteration t. L denotes the pollination's strength or the step size. F * is the target position or best solution. In some cases, insects can fly with different distance steps for a long space; therefore, Levy fly distribution is applied to simulate this movement. where λ = 1.5. Γ(λ) denotes the gamma function. This distribution is available for large steps s > 0. The self-pollination or local pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i and x k i represent pollens from different flower in the same plant. in the range [0,1] The process of pollination can be done using cross-pollination or self-pollination. Therefore, the random variable p, in the range [0, 1], is used to determine this process. SSA is an optimization technique introduced by [48] . It simulates the Salps' behavior in nature. This behavior is called salp chain. The mathematical model of SSA begins by splinting its population into a leader group and followers group. The leader is the front salp, whereas, the followers are the other salps. The search space is determined in n-dimensions with n variables. Equation (10) works to update the salps' positions. where x 1 j denotes the leader's position in j-th dimension. F j is the target position. ub j and lb j represent the max and min bounds, respectively. c 2 and c 3 denote random numbers in [0, 1]. c 1 is an important parameter; it balances between the exploration and exploitation phases. It is computed as follows: where the current loop number is t and the max loop' number is t max . Then, the followers' position is updated as follows: where x i j defines the i-th position of the follower in j-th dimension. i > 1. This section explains the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS method. It is a time series method for forecasting the confirmed cases of the COVID-19, as given in Figure 2 . The FPASSA-ANFIS utilizes the improved FPA to train the ANFIS model by optimizing its parameters. The FPASSA-ANFIS contains five layers as the classic ANFIS model. Layer 1 contains the input variables (the historical COVID-19 confirmed cases). Whereas Layer 5 produces the forecasted values. In the learning phase, the FPASSA is used to select the best weights between Layer 4 and Layer 5. The FPASSA-ANFIS starts by formatting the input data in a time series form. In our case, the autocorrelation function (ACF) was considered. ACF is one of the methods applied to find patterns in the data; it presents information about the correlation between points separated by various time lags. Therefore, in this paper, the variables with ACF greater than 0.2 are considered i.e., 5-lags. Besides, the training data contains 75% of the dataset, whereas the testing data contains 25% of them. The number of clusters is defined by the fuzzy c-mean (FCM) method to construct the ANFIS model. The parameters of the ANFIS model are prepared by the FPASSA algorithm. In the training phase, the calculation error (as in Equation (13)) between the real data and the predicted data is used to evaluate the parameters' quality. where T is the real data, and P is the predicted data. N s is the sample length. The smaller values of the objective function indicate good ANFIS's parameter. On the other hand, the updating phase of the followers' positions in the SSA algorithm is applied to improve the global pollination phase in the FPA algorithm. In this improvement, there is a random variable (r) used to switch between both phases. If r > 0.5, then the operators of the SSA is used; otherwise, the operators of the FPA are used. In general, The FPASSA starts by constructing the population (X); afterward, the objective function is calculated for each solution. The solution with the lowest error value is saved to the next iteration. This sequence is repeated until meeting the stop condition, which in this paper, is the maximum number of iterations. Then the best solution is passed to train the parameters of the ANFIS model. After finishing the training phase, the testing phase is started with the best solution to compute the final output. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the real data with the predicted data using the performance measures. Finally, the FPASSA produces a foretasted value for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China in the next day. The steps of the proposed FPASSA are presented in Algorithm 1. Input: Historical COVID-19 dataset, size of population N, total number of iterations t max . Divide the data into training and testing sets. Using Fuzzy c-mean method to determine the number of membership functions. Constructing the ANFIS network. Set the initial value for N solutions (X). Return the best solution that represents the best configuration for ANFIS. Apply the testing set to the best ANFIS model. Forecasting the COVID-19 for the next ten days. This section presents the description of the used dataset, the performance measures, the parameter setting for all methods, the experiment results, and discussions. The main dataset of this study is COVID-19 dataset. It was collected from the WHO website (https: //www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/). It contains the daily confirmed cases in China from 21 January 2020 to 18 February 2020, as shown in Table 1 . We used 75% from the dataset to train the model while the rest is used to test it. Moreover, we evaluated the performance of the proposed method using two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases. The first one is called DS1; it was collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/). It starts from week number 40 in 2015 and continues until week number 6 in 2020. Whereas, the second one is called DS2. It was collected from the WHO website (https://www.who.int/influenza). It contains the data of weekly influenza confirmed cases in China from week number 1 in 2016 to week number 8 in 2020. The quality of the proposed method is evaluated using a set of performance metrics as follows: • Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): where Yp and Y are the predicted and original values, respectively. • Mean Absolute Error (MAE): • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): • Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE): N s represents the sample size of the data. • Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ): where Y represents the average of Y. The lowest value of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and RMSRE refers to the best method. The higher value of R 2 indicates better correlation for the method. This paper aims to assess the ability of the FPASSA to forecast the COVID-19 by comparing its performance with other methods, namely the ANFIS and the trained ANFIS models using PSO, GA, ABC, FPA, and FPASSA. The parameters' setting for these models is listed in Table 2 . The common parameters, such as population size, are set to 25 and 100 iterations are applied. Besides, each algorithm is performed for 30 independent runs to fair comparisons. The selected parameters are chosen because they produced good behavior in previous experiments, such as [34, 35, 55, 56] . Table 2 . Parameters' setting. Parameters Setting Max. epochs = 100, Error goal = 0, Initial step = 0.01, Decrease rate = 0.9, Increase rate = 1. In this section, the performance of the proposed FPASSA to predict the DS1 and DS2 is discussed. It can be concluded from Table 3 that the performance of FPASSA outperformed the compared methods in all measures, whereas the FPA is ranked second. The results of DS2 indicate that the FPASSA is ranked first in terms of RMSE, MAPE, R 2 , and the CPU time. Whereas, the PSO is ranked second, followed by the FPA, GA, then ABC. These results denote that the proposed method can optimize the parameters of the ANFIS model effectively and produce good results in terms of the performance measures. Comparison results between the proposed FPASSA and other models to forecast COVID-19 are given in Table 4 . It can be concluded that the FPASSA outperforms other models. For example, by analyzing the results of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and CPU time(s) it can be observed that the FPASSA achieves the smallest value among the comparison algorithms, and this indicates the high quality of the FPASSA. Meanwhile, the FPA allocates the second rank, which provides better results than the rest of the methods. Moreover, the value of R 2 refers to the high correlation between the prediction obtained by the proposed FPASSA method and the original COVID-19, which has nearly 0.97. This can also be noticed from Figure 3 , which depicts the training of the algorithms using the historical data of the COVID-19 as well as their forecasting values for ten days. Table 5 depicts the forecasting value for the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China from 19/2/2020 to 28/2/2020. From these results, it can be noticed that the outbreak will reach its highest level on the day 28/2/2020. The average percentage of the increase over the forecasted period is 10%, the highest percentage is 12% on 28/2/2020, and the lowest percentage is 8.7% on 19/2/2020. From the previous results, it can be concluded that the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS has a high ability to forecast the COVID-19 dataset. These results avoid the limitations of traditional ANFIS because of the combination with the modified FPA method. Moreover, the operators of SSA are combined with the local strategy of FPA to enhance their exploitation ability. However, the time computational of the proposed FPASSA method still requires more improvements. This paper proposed a modified version for the flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). This modified version, called FPASSA, is applied to improve the performance of the ANFIS through determining the optimal value for its parameters. The developed FPASSA-ANFIS model is applied as a forecasting technique for a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, that was discovered in Wuhan, China at the end of last year and January of the current year. The proposed FPASSA-ANFIS model has a high ability to predict the number of confirmed cases within ten days. Besides, FPASSA-ANFIS outperforms other forecasting models in terms of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and R 2 . Furthermore, two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in the USA and China were used to evaluate the proposed method, and the evaluation outcomes showed its good performance. According to the promising results obtained by the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS, it can be applied in different forecasting applications.

What is the SSA optimization algorithm inspired by?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What does infection of respiratory viruses cause?

Etiology of Influenza-Like Illnesses from Sentinel Network Practitioners in Réunion Island, 2011-2012 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5031398/ SHA: f5ff89ebfdd0375d034c112c6c1c7e163fa69a0c Authors: Brottet, Elise; Jaffar-Bandjee, Marie-Christine; Li-Pat-Yuen, Ghislaine; Filleul, Laurent Date: 2016-09-21 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163377 License: cc-by Abstract: In Réunion Island, despite an influenza surveillance established since 1996 by the sentinel general practitioner’s network, little is known about the etiology of Influenza like-illness (ILI) that differs from influenza viruses in a tropical area. We set up a retrospective study using nasal swabs collected by sentinel GPs from ILI patients in 2011 and 2012. A total of 250 swabs were randomly selected and analyzed by multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) including research of 18 viruses and 4 bacteria. We detected respiratory viruses in 169/222 (76.1%) samples, mostly rhinovirus (23.4%), influenza A virus (21.2%), influenza B virus (12.6%), coronavirus (4.9%) and Human metapneumovirus (3.6%). Nine swabs (5.3% of positive swabs) revealed co-infections with two viruses identified, among which six concerned co-infections with influenza viruses. We observed important seasonal differences, with circulation of Human Metapneumoviruses, RSV A and B and coronavirus only during summer; whereas parainfluenza viruses were identified only during winter. In conclusion, this study highlights a substantial circulation of multiple respiratory pathogens in Réunion Island throughout the year. It shows that ILI are not only attributable to influenza and underlines the need for biological surveillance. As the use of multiplex RT-PCR showed its efficacy, it is now used routinely in the surveillance of ILI. Text: Influenza like-illness (ILI) or acute respiratory infections can be caused by several types of respiratory viruses or bacteria in humans [1] . Influenza viruses, Respiratory Syncytial viruses (RSV) and Parainfluenza viruses are identified as major viruses mostly responsible for ILI and pneumonia in several studies [2] . However practitioners cannot diagnose the infection without a biological test confirmation. Unfortunately, these infections causes are identified in less than 50% [3] . Réunion Island, a French overseas territory with 850,000 inhabitants, is located in the southern hemisphere between Madagascar and Mauritius in the Indian Ocean (Latitude: 21°05.2920 S Longitude: 55°36.4380 E.). The island benefits from a healthcare system similar to mainland France and epidemiological surveillance has been developed by the regional office of the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance (Cire OI), based on the surveillance system of mainland France [4] . Influenza activity generally increases during austral winter, corresponding to summer in Europe [5] . Since 2011, influenza vaccination campaign in Reunion Island starts in April and the vaccine used corresponds to World Health Organization recommendations for the southern hemisphere. Since 1996, clinical and biological influenza surveillance has been based on a sentinel practitioner's network [6] . In 2014, this network was composed of 58 general practitioners (GPs) spread over the island and represented around 7% of all Réunion Island GPs. Nasal swabs are randomly collected all along the year and are tested by RT-PCR for influenza viruses. Among these surveillance samples, 40 to 50% are tested positive for influenza A virus, A(H1N1)pdm09 or B virus by the virological laboratory of the University Hospital Center of Réunion. Thus ILI samples tested negative for influenza are of unknown etiology. Several biological tools allow identifying respiratory pathogens from nasal swab. In recent years, multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been developed to identify several viruses simultaneously [7] [8] [9] [10] . We therefore used this new method to set up a retrospective study using swabs collected by sentinel GPs from 2011 to 2012. The main objective of our study was to characterize respiratory pathogens responsible for ILI consultations in sentinel GPs in 2011 and 2012. Secondary objectives were to highlight seasonal trends on respiratory pathogens circulation and to describe occurrence of co-infections, especially during the flu season. ILI was defined as a sudden onset of fever more than 38 degrees Celsius and cough, associated or not with other symptoms such as breathing difficulty, headache, etc. Every week, all GPs of the sentinel network were encouraged to collect a nasal swab from the first two patients who presented ILI since less than three days. After being tested for influenza viruses, the 994 swabs collected in 2011 and 2012 are frozen at -80°C at the university hospital center (CHU) laboratory. Based on the budget, a season-stratified sample of 250 swabs was randomly selected in order to describe circulating viruses including outside flu season. Random sampling was performed with Excel 1 using the anonymized surveillance database of the Cire OI. The sampling frame contained identification number of swab assigned by Cire OI, laboratory identification number, sex, age, date of onset of symptoms, date of swab collection and result of influenza RT-PCR. We used Respifinder 1 Smart 22 kits a multiplex RT-PCR (PathoFinder, Maastricht, The Netherlands) which can detect 22 respiratory pathogens. This assay is based on the multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) technology. The reverse transcription and preamplification steps were performed on the epgradient Mastercycler 1 (Eppendorf) and the hybridization, ligation and detection steps on the LightCycler 1 480 system (Roche Applied Science). This method was chosen because of its high specificity, compared to other same methods (78% versus 33%) [3, 11] . Multiplex analysis allows for rapid production of diagnostic results. It thus allows highlighted the possible presence of eighteen respiratory viruses and four bacteria in one reaction by melt curve analysis: Influenza A not (H1N1 Statistical analyses were performed with Stata 1 and Excel 1 . Two seasons were defined to identify possible seasonal trends in circulation of the viruses: winter season during weeks 23 to 39 between June and September and summer season during the rest of the year. Data and swabs result from a surveillance system that received regulatory approvals, including the CNIL (National Commission for Information Technology and Civil Liberties Number 1592205) approval in July 2012. All the patients have received oral information and gave their consent for swab and data collection. Data were collected for surveillance purpose and are totally anonymous. Among the 250 randomly-selected swabs, 26 were not available anymore as they were sent to Influenza Reference Center for confirmation and characterization of the pathogenic agent. According to the sensitivity of the assay two samples could be discordant results between Influenza PCR initially realized and Multiplex PCR. Thus they were deleted from the analysis: one is positive for Influenza in singleplex and negative for all tested pathogens in multiplex and one is positive for Influenza in singleplex and positive for PIV2 in multiplex. In total, 222 analyses were considered. Moreover, 53 samples were negative for all analyzed respiratory pathogens (23.9%) and 169 samples had at least one detected pathogen (76.1%), finally a total of 178 pathogens was identified. During the study period, a minority of the weeks (21 i.e. 20%) did not include any sampled swab, mainly outside flu season. Patients' sex-ratio was 0.63 (86 men and 136 women) and mean age was 28.4 years [min 0; max 81]. Ten percent had less than 5 years, 24% 5-15 years, 63% 15-65 years and only 3% were 65 and older. The respiratory pathogens most frequently identified in ILI swabs were rhinovirus (23.4%), influenza A not H1N1 (21.2%) and influenza B (12.6%) ( Table 1) . Among the 22 respiratory pathogens tested by the multiplex, only three were not found in any analyzed sample: Parainfluenza3, Legionella pneumophila and Bordetella pertussis. Regarding co-infections, nine swabs revealed the presence of two viruses, among which6 involved influenza viruses (Table 2) . Analyses showed that some viruses are possibly seasonal and were circulating during a specific period of the year. They are detected only in summer for Human Metapneumovirus, RSV A and B, and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. For the latter, it is specific to the studied period since the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus reappeared in Réunion Island in October 2012 and was no longer circulating since late 2010. On the opposite, Parainfluenza 1,2 and 4 viruses were identified only in winter. For other pathogens, no specific period of detection was observed. A weekly description of samples was realized to study the distribution of respiratory pathogens in 2011 and 2012 (Fig 1) . Results of biological analyses were compared with data of ILI consultations declared by sentinel GPs in 2011 and 2012. We observed in 2011, after a first wave in June mainly due to influenza A not H1N1 virus, a second wave of ILI consultations with mainly identification of Parainfluenza viruses and not influenza viruses. In 2012, the second epidemic wave at the end of austral winter coincided with Influenza viruses and Rhinovirus circulation. Regarding negative swabs (Fig 2) , we observed no seasonality during the study period with a similar proportion whatever the season. This retrospective study based on a sentinel GPs network showed that not only influenza viruses are responsible for ILI consultations. Indeed, an important circulation of multiple pathogens was observed throughout the year, with 12 different types of pathogens identified in 2011 and 2012. Respiratory viral pathogens were present in 76.1% of samples, which is largely above results from annual influenza surveillance [12] . After influenza viruses, Rhinovirus and Coronavirus were the most common respiratory viruses in Réunion Island. Although samples were not taken every week, sample was representative of ILI activity and consistent with flu season. Nevertheless, according to the low number of samples, it is difficult to conclude about seasonality. However in our study, RSV was circulating in summer season which is hot and rainy, which is confirmed by other studies in tropical region [13] . This study also highlighted several co-infections, showing that concomitant the multiple etiology of ILI. Co-circulation was already observed in Réunion Island during the A(H1N1) pdm09 pandemic in addition to influenza virus, with identification of other respiratory viruses such as Rhinovirus or Coronavirus [14] . In mainland France, during this pandemic, circulation of major respiratory viruses was found, such as Rhinovirus, Parainfluenza, Coronavirus, Human Metapneumovirus, like in our publication [15] [16] . In our study, only 5.3% of positive swabs were co-infections whereas in two studies in Madagascar co-infections represented 27.3% and 29.4% [17] [18] . Despite the distance of 9,300 km between Réunion and France, the island is directly connected to Europe with four daily flights to France. These exchanges can impact respiratory pathogens circulation in southern and northern hemisphere. Results of this study can therefore be of interest to both Indian Ocean and Europe countries. Among the 148 swabs initially negative for influenza because not previously tested for any other viruses, the study found an etiology for 95 swabs. In total, only 53 swabs, representing 24% of the sample, remained without etiology with negative multiplex PCR results all along the year. Multiple hypotheses can explain this result: a poor quality of swabs, preventing from identifying a pathogen, noninfectious causes or other pathogens not included in the multiplex PCR. However, we couldn't test the negative swabs for RNAse P, a marker of human cells, which could provide a modicum of assurance that the swab contained human cells. Concerning the two samples divergent for influenza identification between the multiplex and singleplex PCR, we discarded them for the analysis; one was positive in Influenza with singleplex and positive in PIV with multiplex. It could be a false positive result from singleplex. Indeed, as the multiplex PCR assay has a good sensitivity and is considered as a gold-standard, we decided to keep seven negative results for Influenza in singleplex and positive in Influenza in multiplex [7] [8] [9] [10] . No case of Bordetella pertussis which causes whooping cough and Legionella pneumophila which causes Legionnaires' disease was identified in this study. However, these diseases are rare in Réunion Island, around three cases of Legionnaires' disease are declared each year. A limit of the study is that no clinical data were available in the virological surveillance system of influenza in Réunion Island. It was impossible to compare clinical symptoms according to each pathogen and to know if there are different pathogens which cause for instance rhinitis, laryngitis or bronchitis (diseases included in ILI). A specific prospective study including clinical data might provide useful elements in the semiotics of diseases. In conclusion, this study highlighted an important circulation of multiple pathogens in Réunion Island throughout the year. It shows that ILI is not specific to influenza and so it is essential to have biological results in order to establish the differential diagnosis and thus explain the etiology of symptoms. For a better understanding of respiratory pathogens circulating in Réunion Island, information from this study may also be useful to practitioners who see many patients in consultation with ILI. As the use of multiplex RT-PCR showed its efficacy in the ILI surveillance and allowed to highlight the circulation of other viruses and bacterial causes of respiratory infections, it is now used routinely in the surveillance of ILI. Moreover, it would be interesting to repeat this study every 3 or 5 years adding clinical data to monitor the evolution of respiratory pathogens in Réunion Island over time.

What are the ILI samples wich test negative for influence?

C. difficile 630Δerm Spo0A Regulates Sporulation, but Does Not Contribute to Toxin Production, by Direct High-Affinity Binding to Target DNA https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3485338/ SHA: f0fb3bbd96dad4c907c7fd456cd5783ed8fa7bd6 Authors: Rosenbusch, Katharina E.; Bakker, Dennis; Kuijper, Ed J.; Smits, Wiep Klaas Date: 2012-10-31 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048608 License: cc-by Abstract: Clostridium difficile is a Gram positive, anaerobic bacterium that can form highly resistant endospores. The bacterium is the causative agent of C. difficile infection (CDI), for which the symptoms can range from a mild diarrhea to potentially fatal pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon. Endospore formation in Firmicutes, including C. difficile, is governed by the key regulator for sporulation, Spo0A. In Bacillus subtilis, this transcription factor is also directly or indirectly involved in various other cellular processes. Here, we report that C. difficile Spo0A shows a high degree of similarity to the well characterized B. subtilis protein and recognizes a similar binding sequence. We find that the laboratory strain C. difficile 630Δerm contains an 18bp-duplication near the DNA-binding domain compared to its ancestral strain 630. In vitro binding assays using purified C-terminal DNA binding domain of the C. difficile Spo0A protein demonstrate direct binding to DNA upstream of spo0A and sigH, early sporulation genes and several other putative targets. In vitro binding assays suggest that the gene encoding the major clostridial toxin TcdB may be a direct target of Spo0A, but supernatant derived from a spo0A negative strain was no less toxic towards Vero cells than that obtained from a wild type strain, in contrast to previous reports. These results identify for the first time direct (putative) targets of the Spo0A protein in C. difficile and make a positive effect of Spo0A on production of the large clostridial toxins unlikely. Text: Sporulation is an adaptive strategy that enables bacteria to survive harsh environmental conditions for prolonged periods of time, and is an integral part of the transmission of sporulating pathogens and their tolerance and resistance towards antimicrobial compounds. Spo0A is the key regulator for sporulation [1, 2] . Most of our knowledge about the protein is based on work in Bacilli. Spo0A is a response regulator that demonstrates phosphorylation dependent binding to DNA [3] [4] [5] . Phosphorylation occurs through the concerted action of several proteins that together form a so called phosphorelay [6] . The signaling cascade allows for the integration of environmental signals into the regulation of Spo0A dependent processes, including sporulation. The two functional domains, the N-terminal phosphorylation and dimerization domain (receiver domain), and the C-terminal DNA binding (effector) domain are separated by a hinge region that is relatively poorly conserved [7] . Phosphorylation is believed to result in a structural rearrangement that facilitates dimerization [8, 9] , resulting in the disruption of transcription-inhibitory contacts between the receiver and effector domains. The isolated DNA binding domain can bind legitimate targets of the Spo0A protein due to the absence of the transcription inhibitory contacts, thereby bypassing the need for phosphorylation [10] . Extensive characterization of Spo0A targets has revealed a motif that represents a high affinity Spo0A binding site, the 0A box [10, 11] . The crystal structure of the DNA binding domain confirms specific and non-specific contacts between the protein and the consensus sequence [12, 13] . It is noteworthy that Spo0A regulates many other processes than sporulation, such as competence for genetic transformation, DNA replication, and biofilm formation in B. subtilis [14] [15] [16] , virulence factors and stress responses in for instance B. anthracis and B. thuringiensis [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] , and solvent production in Clostridium acetobutylicum [22, 23] . C. difficile is a Gram positive, anaerobic bacterium that is the causative agent of C. difficile infection (CDI) (for recent reviews see [24, 25] ). Though many people are asymptomatically colonized by C. difficile, the bacterium can cause serious health problems, such as pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon, under the influence of risk factors such as age and antibiotic use. As a result, CDI was long regarded a nosocomial infection. Recently, however, an increase in the cases of community acquired CDI can be observed [26] . Outbreaks of CDI have been linked to so called hypervirulent strains, such as PCR ribotypes 027 (BI/ NAP1) and 078 [27, 28] . Its main virulence factors are the major clostridial toxins A and B [29, 30] . In addition, certain strains of C. difficile, including ribotypes 027 and 078, additionally encode a binary toxin [31, 32] . C. difficile is transmitted via the fecal-oral route. It is believed that spores are crucial to successfully infect new hosts, as they are able to withstand the harsh environment of the stomach, and survive antibiotic treatments that alter the endogenous flora, after which C. difficile can overgrow [24, 25] . There is limited knowledge about the regulation of sporulation in C. difficile. It has been reported that spo0A, as expected, is required for the formation of spores [33] and the gene is required for persistence and transmission in mice [34] . Though the pathways downstream of Spo0A seem to a large extent conserved between B. subtilis and Clostridia, this is less so for the pathways leading to activation of Spo0A [2] . It has been suggested that the orphan histidine kinase CD2492 is involved in the activation of Spo0A [35] . Similarly, it was reported that multiple orphan histidine kinases can phosphorylate Spo0A in C. acetobutylicum [36] . Recently, it was reported that spo0A can be transcribed from a SigH-dependent promoter [37] . It is unknown which genes are regulated by direct binding of Spo0A to their upstream regions. Here, we establish an in vitro binding assay for C. difficile Spo0A and demonstrate for the first time direct binding of this transcription factor to DNA upstream of several putative target genes. Escherichia coli strains were routinely grown in Luria-Bertani broth or plates, supplemented with appropriate antibiotics. Chloramphenicol was used at a final concentration of 20 mg/mL for agar plates and 10 mg/mL for liquid cultures. Ampicillin was used at a final concentration of 100 mg/mL. Kanamycin was used at a final concentration of 20 mg/mL. Cloning was carried out using E. coli DH5a, overexpression was performed in E. coli Rosetta(DE3) pLysS (Novagen). C. difficile strains were grown in a glucose-free trypton-yeast based medium (TTY; 3% w/v bactotrypton (BD), 2% yeast extract (Fluka), 0.1% w/v thioglycollate (Sigma) pH 7.4), supplemented with 20 mg/mL of lincomycin when appropriate, or on CLO or TSS plates (Biomerieux). All plasmids are listed in Table 1 . Primers (obtained from Sigma Aldrich) are listed in Text S1 and specific cycling conditions are available on request. Unless noted otherwise, PCR reactions were carried out using Pfu polymerase (Fermentas) according to the instructions of the manufacturer. Plasmid pWKS1251, for the overproduction of Spo0A-DBD carrying a C-terminal 66His-tag, was constructed as follows. A sequence corresponding to the DNA binding domain of Spo0A was amplified using primers oWKS-1123a and oWKS-1124 using chromosomal DNA from C. difficile strain 630Derm as a template. The resulting fragment was cloned into pCR2.1-TOPO (Invitrogen), yielding pWKS1247. This plasmid was digested with NdeI and XhoI, separated on a 1% agarose/0.56 TAE (20 mM Tris Acetate, 0.5 mM EDTA) gel, the fragment corresponding to the DNA binding domain was recovered by gel-isolation (using a GeneJET Gel Extraction kit, Fermentas) and cloned into similarly digested pMF14 [10] that had been gel-isolated in the same manner. The construct was verified by PCR, restriction analyses and DNA sequencing using primers oWKS-135 and oWKS-136 (see below). Plasmid pWKS1245, for the production of full length Spo0A carrying a C-terminal 6xHis-tag, was constructed in a similar manner using chromosomal DNA from C. difficile 630Derm as a template, but using the PCR product of primers oWKS-1122 and oWKS-1123a. Plasmids used as PCR templates for generating EMSA probes were constructed by cloning the PCR products into pCR2.1-TOPO. The inserts, and in the case of the mutated PabrB promoters the presence of the desired point mutations in the consensus 0A box, were verified by DNA sequencing using primers oWKS-24 and oWKS-25 (see below). Sequence grade plasmids were isolated using a Nucleospin Plasmid QuickPure kit (Macherey Nagel) according to the manufacturer's instructions, except that two lysis reactions were combined onto a single filter and eluted with 65uC prewarmed AE buffer. All constructs were sequenced using BigDye Terminator chemistry (Invitrogen) on an ABI3130 sequencer (Perkin Elmer), according to the instructions of the manufacturers. In short, ,200 ng of plasmid was mixed with 3.2 pmol of primer, 1 mL Terminator Ready Reaction Mix (Invitrogen) in a final volume of 20 mL. After thermocycling, DNA was precipitated and washed with 65% isopropanol, and dissolved in 12 mL HiDi formamid (Invitrogen) at 96uC for 2 mins and stored in the dark at 4uC until the sequencing run. Sequence analyses were performed in CloneManager Professional Suite 7 (SciEd) and Geneious version 5.6.2 (Biomatters Ltd). Plasmids pWKS1245 and pWKS1251 were transformed into E. coli Rosetta(DE3) pLysS (Novagen). Transformants were used to inoculate 25 mL of LB with appropriate antibiotics. After overnight incubation, the cells were 1:100 diluted in 500 mL fresh medium containing appropriate antibiotics. Protein production was induced with 1 mM IPTG at an OD600 of 0.7 and growth was continued for another three hours before harvesting. Cells were washed with ice cold PBS and stored at 280uC for later use. Purification of the proteins was essentially done as described [10] . In short, cells were disrupted in 4 mL lysis buffer (2 mM PMSF, 10 mM imidazole, 5 mM beta-mercaptoethanol, 300 mM NaCl, 50 mM NaH 2 PO 4 , pH 7.9). Cleared cell lysates we incubated with 2 mL pre-equilibrated 50% TALON slurry (Clontech) in a final volume of 15 mL lysis buffer for 1 hr. The resin was allowed to settle on a Poly-Prep column (BioRad) and washed with 2 mL wash buffer (20 mM imidazole, 300 mM NaCl, 50 mM NaH 2 PO 4 , pH 7.9). The protein was stepwise eluted in 1 mL fractions after applying 2 mL elution buffer to the column (identical to wash buffer but with 50, 100, 250 or 500 mM imidazole). The whole procedure was carried out at 4uC. Fractions were assayed for purity and yield and suitable fractions were dialysed against 26 1L dialysis buffer (50 mM Tris-HCl pH 8, 1 mM EDTA, 0.5 mM DTT) using Slide-A-Lyzer cassettes with a molecular weight cut-off of 3.5 kDa (Pierce). Proteins were stored at 280uC in storage buffer (identical to dialysis buffer but containing 20% glycerol). Protein concentrations were determined using Bradford reagent (BioRad), according to the manufacturer's instructions. DNA fragments for use in EMSA experiment were generated by PCR using GoTaq polymerase (Promega) and chromosomal DNA from B. subtilis JH642 (Bacillus Genetic Stock Center 1A96; http://www.bgsc.org), plasmids listed in Table 1 , or chromosomal DNA from C. difficile 630Derm [38] as a template. Primers and specific cycling conditions for generation of the EMSA probes are listed in Text S1. DNA fragments of the expected size were isolated from a 16TAE/8% native polyacrylamide gel using diffusion buffer (0.5 M ammonium acetate, 10 mM magnesium acetate, 1 mM EDTA pH 8, 0.1% SDS) and a QIAExII kit (Qiagen), according to the manufacturer's instructions. Recovered DNA was end-labeled with 32P-c-ATP using FR buffer and T4 kinase (Invitrogen) according to the instructions of the manufacturer. Specific activity was determined on a LS6000 scintillation counter (Beckman). EMSA conditions were based on previous studies [10] . In short, binding reactions were carried out in binding buffer (10 mM Tris-HCl pH 7.6, 1 mM EDTA, 50 mM NaCl, 1 mM DTT, 5% glycerol) in the presence of 200 mg/mL bovine serum albumin (NEB) and 200 cpm/mL radiolabeled DNA fragment. Reactions were incubated for 20 minutes at 30uC prior to loading on a 16TAE/8% non-denaturing polyacrylamide gel that was prerun for 20 minutes at 50 V in 16 TAE buffer. Electrophoresis was carried out for 120 min at 85 V. After vacuum drying the gels onto filter paper, they were imaged after overnight exposure on Phosphorimager screens on a Typhoon instrument (GE Healthcare). The toxic effects of C. difficile culture supernatants on Vero cells (a kind gift of Eric Snijder [39] ) were determined as follows. Supernatant from a bacterial culture was harvested by centrifuging cells for 3 minutes at 140006g and filtered on a 0.45 mM cellulose acetate filter using a syringe. Supernatants were 2-fold serially diluted in cell culture medium (Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (Lonza) supplemented with 100 mg/mL penicillin, 100 U/mL streptomycin, 10% fetal calf serum), before applying them to a monolayer of Vero cells, and incubation was continued for another hour. As a positive control, 50 mL 1:10 diluted purified toxin (Techlab) was added to the cells. To determine if observed cytotoxic effects were specific for the large clostridial toxins, commercially available anti-toxin against TcdA and TcdB (Techlab) was added to 10-fold diluted bacterial supernatant for 60 min prior to incubation on the Vero cells. Toxin end-point titres were defined as the lowest dilution at which no cytopathological effects (cell rounding) were observed. Statistical significance was evaluated with an independent sample t-test. Immunization of mice with full length C. difficile Spo0A-6xHis was kindly performed at the Welcome Trust Sanger Institute (Hinxton, UK). Cells from 1 mL of C. difficile culture were collected by centrifugation for 1 min at 14000 rpm in a table top centrifuge and resuspended in 200 mL resuspension buffer (10 mM Tris HCl pH 8, 10 mM EDTA, 0.5 mg/mL lysozyme, 1 mM Pefabloc SC (Roche)). After incubation for 30 mins at 37uC, 50 mL of 56 SDS sample buffer (0.1 M DTT, 2% SDS, 50 mM Tris HCl pH 6.8, 10% glycerol, 0.0025% BPB) was added, and samples were heated to 96uC for 5 mins. Total cell lysates (amounts corrected for OD 600 ) were separated on a 12% SDS-PAGE gel prior to semi-dry blotting for 1 h at 10 V to a polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membrane. Membranes were blocked in PBST buffer (phosphate buffered saline with 0.1% v/v Tween-20) containing 5% membrane blocking reagent (Amersham Biosciences). To visualize Spo0A protein cleared polyclonal serum from a single mouse at a 1:3000 dilution was used, followed by either a goat-anti-mouse HRP-conjugated secondary antibody followed by ECL+ detection (Amersham Bioscience), or a goatanti-mouse-biotin-conjugated secondary antibody (Dako) followed by a tertiary mouse-anti-biotin Cy3-conjugated antibody (Jackson). Detection was done using on a Typhoon instrument (GE Healthcare). Background corrected peak volumes were quantified using ImageQuant TL (Amersham Biosciences). Alignments of B. subtilis and C. difficile spo0A were made using ClustalW2 (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/Tools/msa/clustalw2/) on the basis of the published genome sequences, Genbank accession numbers AL009126 and AM180355, respectively, and the 630Derm spo0A sequence as determined in this study. The sequence for spo0A of C. difficile strain 630Derm was deposited in Genbank (accession no JX050222). Consensus Spo0A boxes were identified using a Single string Search command in Genome2D [40] , allowing 0 mismatches. The box positions were linked to upand downstream genes using the ''Add nearest gene to List of DNA Motifs'' feature and Microsoft Excel. The results were manually inspected for those boxes within 500 bp upstream of a gene on the same strand. Figures for publication were prepared using ImageQuant TL (Amersham Biosciences), Adobe Photoshop CS3 (Adobe Systems Inc) and Corel Graphics Suite X5 (Corel Corporation). In order to characterize C. difficile Spo0A, the full length protein and its DNA binding domain (DBD) were expressed as a Cterminally 66His-tagged protein in the heterologous host Escherichia coli (Fig. 1A) and purified to near homogeneity using metal affinity chromatography ( Fig. 1A ; lanes P). Full length protein was used to raise antibodies to detect Spo0A in total lysates of C. difficile strains, and the purified DNA binding domain was used in subsequent in vitro binding assays (see below). We determined the expression of C. difficile Spo0A throughout growth. We found that the protein is present in lysates from exponential to stationary growth phase cells. We performed immunoblotting using polyclonal antibodies against C. difficile Spo0A on total lysates of wild type and spo0A mutant cells grown in a trypton-yeast based medium (TTY). We found a clear signal of the size expected for full length Spo0A (,31 kDa) as early as 3 hours post inoculation (exponential growth phase), through transition phase (8 h) as well as 24 and 48 hours post inoculation (stationary growth phase) ( Figure 1B; 630Derm) . The signals were specific for C. difficile Spo0A as they were absent from lysates from the C. difficile spo0A mutant (Fig. 1B , CT::spo0A). We obtained similar results in other media, such as the commonly used supplemented brain heart infusion broth (BHIS; data not shown). To determine relative levels of Spo0A throughout growth, we performed an immunoblot experiment using fluorescent antibodies, which gives more quantitative information compared to the use of horseradish peroxidase conjugated antibodies in our hands. We found that the levels of Spo0A increases approximately 20-fold from 6 hours post inoculation and remains at similar levels from 8 to 48 hours post inoculation ( Figure 1C ). Though it should be noted that the Western blots do not provide information on the phosphorylation state of the protein, we conclude that the protein in active or inactive form is present throughout growth and is more abundant in stationary growth phase. Spo0A of C. difficile Strain 630Derm Contains a 6aminoacid Duplication BLAST homology searches readily identify a homolog of the well-characterized B. subtilis Spo0A protein in C. difficile 630 (CD1214) and previous work demonstrated that a spo0A mutant (an insertional inactivation of cd1214) -as expected -no longer forms spores [41] . In silico analyses suggest a similar secondary structure for both proteins ( Fig. 2A) , with a conserved dimerization and DNA binding domain, separated by a poorly conserved hinge region [7, 12] . We compared the sequence of CD1214 obtained from our lab strain 630Derm [38] to that of the published C. difficile 630 genome [42] . Strain 630Derm is a spontaneous erythromycin sensitive strain, which is commonly used in mutagenesis studies and was obtained by serial passaging of strain 630 [33, 38] . The 630Derm spo0A sequence (Genbank accession no JX050222) was derived from the expression plasmids constructed for this study, and confirmed in a whole genome sequence of strain 630Derm generated in our lab (data not shown). We found that 630Derm spo0A contains an 18 base pair direct repeat, resulting in a 6 amino acid (NVGNIE) duplication compared to the published reference sequence. The duplication maps to a region of the protein with relatively low sequence conservation (hinge), flanking the highly conserved DNA binding domain ( Fig. 2A and B) . We verified the absence of this duplication in strain 630 by PCR (Fig. 2C ) as well as sequencing from the chromosomal DNA of C. difficile 630 (data not shown), to rule out an error in the original genome sequence and to demonstrate that the difference in size of the PCR product was specific to the 18 bp insertion. In addition, we checked several other strains of PCR ribotypes 12 (to which 630 and 630Derm belong) by PCR, but the duplication was found to be unique to 630Derm among the isolates tested (data not shown). C. difficile Spo0A-DBD Shows Similar Specificity as B. subtilis Spo0A-DBD Next, we examined the conservation of the DNA binding domain of Spo0A (Spo0A-DBD) between B. subtilis and C. difficile. In B. subtilis amino acid residues contacting the backbone of the DNA and interacting with specific residues of the Spo0A binding sequence have been defined [13] . We found that all these residues were conserved in the C. difficile protein sequence (Fig. 2B) , indicating that the protein likely recognizes a similar motif. DNA binding by full length Spo0A in B. subtilis requires phosphorylation dependent dimerization [8, 9] . However, it was shown that the isolated DBD is capable of binding to legitimate targets of the full length protein [10] . Analogously, we purified the C. difficile Spo0A-DBD for use in in vitro binding assays. As no direct targets for the C. difficile protein have been reported so far, we used the upstream region of the abrB gene (PabrB) of B. subtilis. PabrB is commonly used as a high-affinity control in binding assays with the B. subtilis Spo0A or Spo0A-DBD protein [43, 44] . It is noteworthy that we failed to identify a homolog of abrB in C. difficile using BLAST, indicating that potential indirect regulation by Spo0A cannot occur through abrB in C. difficile as it does in B. subtilis. We found that C. difficile Spo0A-DBD bound with high affinity to PabrB (Fig. 2D and E) . We performed electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSAs) using radiolabeled PabrB and increasing amounts of purified C. difficile Spo0A-DBD that was purified using a C-terminal 66His-tag. The addition of protein leads to a dose-dependent retardation of the DNA fragment with an apparent K D of ,50 nM. In the same range of protein concentrations, no binding was observed for a negative control (a DNA fragment of B. subtilis citG [45] ) (Fig. 2E) , suggesting that binding was specific for the abrB promoter region. B. subtilis Spo0A recognizes a distinct sequence (0A box), that is characterized by a 7 bp core motif (TGTCGAA) [10, 11] . Structural studies have revealed that the protein makes specific contacts with the G at position 2 (G2), and the C at position 4 (C4) and 5 (G5) of this motif [13] . We introduced G2A, C4A, G5A, G2A/C4A and C4A/G5A mutations in the perfect consensus core 0A-box present in PabrB. We found that the affinity of C. difficile Spo0A for these mutated PabrB fragments was highly reduced (Fig. 2E) . We performed EMSAs using radiolabeled PabrB containing the mutated core sequence. For the single point mutations in the DNA, the affinity decreased ,10-fold. There did not seem to be an additive effect of a second point mutation for the two combinations tested. None of the mutations abolished binding of C. difficile Spo0A completely, most likely as the result of binding of Spo0A to other (non-consensus) 0A boxes in the abrB promoter [44] . Taken together, we conclude that the guanine and cytosine residues in the core TGTCGAA motif of PabrB are important for specific binding of this fragment by C. difficile Spo0A-DBD. Value for Binding by C. difficile Spo0A-DBD Above, we have established that the Spo0A-DBD of C. difficile is highly homologous to that of the B. subtilis Spo0A protein, and that the proteins recognize a similar consensus sequence (Fig. 2 ). Based on this information, we identified the several genes as putative direct targets of C. difficile Spo0A. We queried the C. difficile 630 genome sequence for perfect matches to the core 0A box using Genome2D [40] . Such an analysis revealed the presence of 102 matching motifs, of which 45 were located within 500 bp of the initiating ATG of an open reading frame on the same strand (see Table S1 ). Our attention was drawn to spo0A and sigH, as these two genes were previously found to be regulated by Spo0A in B. subtilis and/or play important roles in sporulation [3, [46] [47] [48] . We found that C. difficile Spo0A bound to DNA sequences upstream of spo0A and sigH. We performed EMSAs with DNA encompassing 220-281 bp upstream of the initiating ATG codon of the spo0A, sigH and spoVG open reading frames. We found that the addition of Spo0A-DBD to the reactions caused retardation of the spo0A and sigH DNA fragments (Fig. 3A) , but not of a spoVG fragment which did not contain a consensus 0A box (Fig. 3B) . It should be noted that the affinity of Spo0A-DBD for the region upstream of spo0A was the highest we have observed so far for any C. difficile DNA. Moreover, the presence of multiple shifted species could indicate the presence of more than one strong binding site. These results establish that spo0A and sigH are likely legitimate targets of Spo0A in C. difficile, and confirm that spoVG is not, in line with results obtained in B. subtilis [10] . We were interested to see if Spo0A in C. difficile could potentially regulate genes that have no documented function in sporulation. Our in silico analysis identified several genes with no obvious link to sporulation that had a consensus 0A box within 100 bp upstream of their start codon. This positioning is similar to that observed for spo0A (275) and sigH (278). We confirmed in vitro binding of the C. difficile Spo0A-DBD to the promoter regions of lplA and ssuA. We carried out EMSA experiments using probes that included the perfect consensus site and purified Spo0A-DBD protein. We observed binding of the protein to fragments upstream of the lplA gene (CD1654; box at 267) and the ssuA gene (CD1484; box at 282) (Fig. 3A) . The lplA gene encodes a predicted lipoate-protein ligase, and ssuA is annotated as an aliphatic sulfonates ABC transporter; to our knowledge, neither of these have been directly implicated in sporulation or have found to be targets for Spo0A in other organisms. Together our results establish the potential for binding of Spo0A to DNA upstream of spo0A and sigH, two genes that are important for sporulation, and indicate that Spo0A may have functions that go beyond the regulation of sporulation in C. difficile. It has been established that a spo0A mutant of C. difficile does not produce any spores, consistent with a crucial role in the sporulation pathway [33] . However, the in silico identification of upstream regions with a consensus Spo0A binding site did not point to any of the early sporulation genes (downstream of spo0A itself) as direct targets of Spo0A. This is likely the result of variations in the 0A-box in these promoters that were disregarded in the box search. In support of this, many well-characterized legitimate direct targets of B. subtilis Spo0A (such as spoIIAA and spoIIE) do not contain a 100% match to the core motif, but rather one or more near-consensus boxes [5, 49] . We found that Spo0A- We performed EMSA experiments using increasing amounts of purified Spo0A-DBD from C. difficile 630Derm and the DNA fragments indicated above (Fig. 3B ). For spoIIAA (encoding an antianti sigma-factor) and spoIIE (encoding a serine phosphatase), we observed a low intensity shifted species at concentrations as low as 150 nM. For spoIIGA (encoding a sporulation specific protease) we observed the shifted species only at higher concentrations of protein (.200 nM). The negative control (spoVG) did not demonstrate binding of Spo0A-DBD at these concentrations. Moreover, the shift we observed was reversible using unlabeled DNA containing a high affinity binding site, but not using unlabeled DNA that lacked such a site ( Figure S1B-D) . Therefore, we consider the binding to spoIIAA, spoIIE and spoIIGA genes to be specific, despite the fact that increasing the amount of protein did not seem to cause a significant increase in the amount of DNA in the complex. Together, these results suggest that Spo0A in C. difficile might regulate the transcription of at least a subset of early sporulation genes by direct binding to their promoter regions. C. difficile Spo0A-DBD Binds to DNA Upstream of tcdB It has previously been reported that the deletion of Spo0A in C. difficile results in a significantly lower toxin production and a ,1000-fold reduction in the toxicity of culture supernatant derived from spo0A negative cells towards Vero cells [35] . Considering the absence of a homolog of the abrB repressor, direct binding of Spo0A and concomitant activation of toxin gene transcription is a likely mechanism through which this could occur. We found evidence for direct binding of Spo0A-DBD to the region upstream of tcdB, encoding one of the major clostridial toxin genes, and possibly tcdC, but this did not seem to result in lower toxin levels in our hands. We performed EMSAs using DNA upstream of tcdR (encoding a sigma factor responsible for the activation of toxin gene transcription), tcdB (encoding toxin B), tcdA (encoding toxin A). In order to test regions upstream of all open reading frames in the PaLoc, we also tested binding of Spo0A to DNA upstream of tcdE (encoding a holin-like protein [50, 51] ) and tcdC (encoding a putative negative regulator of toxin production [52] [53] [54] ), even though this regulator does not have a significant effect on toxin levels under the conditions we used [55, 56] . Of the regions tested, we only observed a clear shifted species, indicative of Spo0A binding, for tcdB ( Figure 4A ); the shifted species in our EMSA assay was reversed by the addition of unlabeled DNA containing a high affinity binding site, but not by DNA lacking such a site ( Figure S1E ). For tcdC, some smearing was observed at all concentrations of proteins tested ( Figure 4A ), and there did not seem to be a clear effect of the addition of unlabeled DNA fragments ( Figure S1F ). The probes for tcdA, tcdE and tcdR were indistinguishable from those obtained with our negative control, spoVG. We wanted to determine if toxin levels in culture supernatants were directly or indirectly affected by Spo0A, as was previously suggested. We found no lower toxicity towards Vero cells of culture supernatants derived from spo0A mutant cells compared to wild type. We grew three independent biological replicates of a wild type (630Derm) or Clostron-generated spo0A mutant (CT::spo0A -a kind gift of the Minton lab) in glucose-free TTY medium. We harvested culture supernatant at late-exponential phase (approximately 7 hours post inoculation), the transition phase between exponential and stationary growth phase (approximately 9 hours post inoculation), as well as two time points in stationary phase (24 and 48 hours post inoculation) and determined the toxin endpoint titres (see Materials and Methods). In contrast to previous findings, we observed a small (#4-fold) increase in the toxicity of supernatants derived from spo0A mutant cells compared to wild type, but in all cases this difference was not statistically significant (p.0.05, independent sample t-test). In other medium (BHIS), we observed no differences at all (data not shown). We conclude that Spo0A does not positively affect toxin production in C. difficile 630Derm and the in vivo relevance of the binding to regions upstream of tcdB and/or tcdC is therefore limited under our experimental conditions. The Spo0A-box of C. difficile In B. subtilis, the binding site of Spo0A on target DNA has been well-characterized, through a combination of in vitro binding assays, determination of in vivo binding profiles and mutagenesis of regulated promoter sequences. This work has led to the identification of a conserved core motif, TGTCGAA, or Spo0A box [5, 10, 11, 45] . Depending on the analysis, this motif is flanked by one or more adenine or thymine residues [10, 11] . Interestingly, many target genes do not harbor a perfect match to this consensus sequence, but rather contain one or more degenerate motifs. The differences in these motifs may reflect different promoter architectures (e.g. AT content), modes of action (e.g. activation or repression) or levels of regulation. Spo0A genes in B. subtilis can be divided in different classes that respond to different levels of phosphorylated Spo0A [43, 57] . For C. difficile, we conclude that the Spo0A protein likely recognizes a motif that is similar to the B. subtilis Spo0A box on the basis of four lines of evidence; 1. All DNA binding/contacting residues are conserved (Fig. 2B) , 2. C. difficile Spo0A can bind with high affinity to a target of B. subtilis Spo0A (Fig. 2D) , 3. Mutagenesis of key residues in the B. subtilis Spo0A box reduces affinity of C. difficile Spo0A for DNA (Fig. 2E ) and 4. A B. subtilis Spo0A box has predictive value for DNA binding by C. difficile Spo0A (Fig. 3A) . It is conceivable that our model system, using the purified DNA binding domain, does not accurately reflect binding to all target sites, if target site selectivity is determined in part by other parts by of the full length protein. It is likely that differences do exist between the preferred binding sites for both proteins that will be evident when a comprehensive analysis is performed of in vivo DNA binding of C. difficile Spo0A; based on the limited data set of this study, a MEME analysis [58] already suggests possible differences in the extended Spo0A motif (W.K. Smits, unpublished observations). These differences may relate to the much higher AT content of C. difficile compared to B. subtilis (71 vs. 56.5%, respectively), or phosphorylation dependent dimerization, for instance. The initiation of sporulation in B. subtilis is subject to complex regulation (for review see ref [1, 59] ). The activation of Spo0A is controlled by a multi-component phosphorelay that can integrate environmental cues [60] and ensures a gradual increase in the level of phosphorylated Spo0A in the cell [57] . In addition, the transcription of the spo0A gene is controlled by multiple feedback loops. For instance, Spo0A regulates its own transcription by binding to the spo0A promoter [46] , as well as by indirectly stimulating the transcription of sigH, encoding a sigma factor that recognizes the spo0A promoter [48] . In C. difficile, there are some interesting differences and similarities in the regulatory pathways. Most notably, there seems to be no phosphorelay [2] and the phosphorylation state of Spo0A is supposedly controlled by orphan histidine kinases [35] . The transcription of spo0A in C. difficile is under control of the transition state sigma factor Sigma H [37] , as it is in B. subtilis [61] . Our data indicate that both spo0A and sigH could be targets for direct regulation by Spo0A in C. difficile (Fig. 3A) , raising the possibility of auto-regulation of spo0A. The putative direct regulation of sigH by Spo0A may reflect that the C. difficile genome does not harbor a homolog of the pleiotropic regulator AbrB, which is responsible for the Spo0A-dependent regulation of sigH in B. subtilis [48] . Consistent with a model in which spo0A is positively autoregulated, we noted a sharp increase in the levels of Spo0A as cells approach the stationary growth phase ( Figure 1C) . Downstream of Spo0A, we found binding of Spo0A to DNA upstream of several early sporulation genes, such as spoIIAA, spoIIE, and spoIIGA (Fig. 3B ). All these observations are consistent with direct regulation of these genes by Spo0A in other organisms [5, 45, 49, 62] , and the conservation of the sporulation pathway [2] . Though Spo0A is the key regulator for sporulation in Firmicutes, it regulates numerous other processes in various bacteria. In the non-pathogenic B. subtilis, for instance, the protein also affects competence development, biofilm formation, the production of and resistance to antimicrobial compounds, chromosome dynamics and aspects of phage biology [10, [14] [15] [16] . Importantly, several of these processes are indirectly regulated, through the Spo0A-dependent repression of abrB. Additionally, transcription of abrB responds already to low levels of Spo0A,P [43] . As a result these effects are detectable in late-exponential and early stationary phase, as some Spo0A is present throughout growth in B. subtilis cells. Though abrB is absent from C. difficile, this does not exclude the possibility of indirect transcriptional regulation through Spo0Adependent effects on other regulators. Alternatively, Spo0A may exert a direct effect. In Clostridium acetobutylicum and C. beijerinckii, Spo0A is a direct regulator of solvent formation, as well as sporulation [22, 23] . It seems therefore conceivable that Spo0A in C. difficile also affects aspects of metabolism. In this respect, it is important to note that also in C. difficile Spo0A is detectable from early exponential growth phase on ( Figure 1B) . We observed direct binding of C. difficile Spo0A to the promoter region of sigH (Fig. 3A) . This gene encodes the key sigma factor for the transition phase, and regulates processes outside sporulation as well [37] . Moreover, we found significant levels of Spo0A from early stationary phase on ( Fig. 1B and unpublished observations) , indicating the regulatory actions of Spo0A need not be limited to stationary phase in C. difficile. In line with this idea, we found a potential regulatory link between Spo0A and two genes that to our knowledge are not related to the sporulation process, the lipoate ligase lplA and the aliphatic sulfonates transporter ssuA (Fig. 3A) . The presence of a putative Spo0A binding site upstream of these genes, as well as the spacing compared to the start codon, is conserved in the problematic Stoke-Mandeville strain (R20291), a member of PCR ribotype 27. This could indicate that these aspects of regulation by Spo0A are conserved in multiple strains of C. difficile. It should be noted that our work so far has been limited to an in vitro analysis of Spo0A binding, and therefore does not indicate whether activation or repression of the putative target genes occurs in vivo. To answer this question, detailed transcriptome and/or proteome studies have to be performed. In order to distinguish direct from indirect effects, in vivo binding profiles of Spo0A should be performed. The antibodies generated for this study should prove to be useful for this type of experiments. Amongst the pathogenic Firmicutes, Spo0A has been reported to affect toxin production in multiple species. In B. anthracis a spo0A mutation results in elevated levels of AbrB, and concomitantly lower levels of the toxin genes pagA, cya and lef that are under AbrB control [17] . Similarly, the production of the emetic toxin cereulide in B. cereus is greatly repressed in a spo0A mutant, in an AbrB-dependent manner [63] . In contrast, Spo0A directly represses the expression of the cry toxin genes in B. thuringiensis and a spo0A mutant is therefore a hyper-producer of the insecticidal crystal protein [18, 21] . In Clostridium perfringens TpeL, a member of the large clostridial toxins just like TcdA and TcdB, is directly dependent on Spo0A [64] and also the production of enterotoxin in this organism seems to be (indirectly) dependent on sporulation [65, 66] . In C. difficile an insertional spo0A mutant generated using Clostron technology was reported to have ,10-fold reduced levels of toxin A (TcdA), both intracellularly and extracellularly as well as ,1000-fold reduced toxicity towards Vero cells, which are primarily sensitive towards toxin B (TcdB) [35] . Our in vitro binding data indicate a potential binding site for Spo0A upstream of tcdB and possibly tcdC (Fig. 4A) . However, the in vivo relevance of this binding seems limited as in our hands an independently derived but otherwise identical mutant (a kind gift of the Minton lab; [33] ) did not demonstrate a reduced toxicity towards Vero cells. In contrast, we found that in TTY medium toxin levels were slightly elevated in spo0A mutant cells compared to wild type (#2fold in exponential phase cells up to 4-fold in late-stationary phase cells). The small, and not significant, differences in toxin levels in our experiments might be attributed to differences in the susceptibility of cells for lysis rather than the production of toxin, but could also indicate a negative regulatory effect of Spo0A on toxin production. In support of the latter hypothesis, it was recently reported that a spo0A mutant of C. difficile strain R20291 (a PCR ribotypes 027/BI/NAP1 epidemic strain) demonstrates ,10fold higher toxin levels than its isogenic wild type 30 h post inoculation, and is significantly more virulent in a mouse model of disease [34] . The differences between Underwood et al [35] on the one hand and our study as well as the study of Deakin and coworkers [34] on the other hand may be explained by differences in experimental conditions, such as the medium used. However, we observed no difference in cytotoxicity between supernatant derived from wild type or spo0A mutant cells when they were grown in BHIS, a medium nearly identical to that used previously (data not shown). Alternatively, the differences could indicate integration of the group II intron at more than one location in the chromosome in the strain used in Underwood et al [35] . In the absence of a complementation experiment and/or Southern blot data, this remains to be established. In summary, our data are consistent with a model in which the regulation of the major clostridial toxins in C. difficile is not positively affected by Spo0A, in contrast to previous findings and other pathogenic Clostridia. Whether Spo0A is truly a negative regulator of toxin production remains to be confirmed using in vitro and in vivo transcription assays. In the present study we have for the first time demonstrated direct binding of the DNA binding domain of C. difficile Spo0A to putative target DNA. This work has revealed that aspects of Spo0A binding are conserved between Bacillus and C. difficile (0A box, possible auto-regulation and binding to early sporulation promoters), whereas others are not (the absence of abrB as a direct target in C. difficile, binding to DNA upstream of lplA, ssuA). The effects of Spo0A on toxin production may be similar to those observed for B. thuringiensis [18, 21] . Future work will be aimed at determining the effect of Spo0A on the transcription of the putative target genes, and carry out a comprehensive analysis of Spo0A binding in vivo. The identification of genes affected by Spo0A in C. difficile may shed light on the role of the protein in virulence and pathogenesis of this organism. Figure S1 Specificity controls for binding by Spo0A-DBD-his6. Arrows indicate the position of shifted species (DNA:protein complexes). Titrations with PCR fragments of PabrB (containing a high affinity binding site) and PtcdA (lacking such a site) correspond to approximately 0.1 nM/mL -0.03 nM/ mL. A. Comparison of binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6, Spo0A-his6 and CD2195-his6 binding to the upstream region of spoIIAA. B. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of spoIIAA is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA). C. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of spoIIE is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA. D. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of spoIIGA is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA. E. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of tcdB is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA. F. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of tcdC is not or moderately affected by the addition of PabrB and/or PtcdA. (TIF) Text S1 Oligonucleotides used in this study and PCR cycling conditions for the EMSA probes. (PDF)

What is Clodstridium difficile?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

Why must the two proteins Gn and Gc be co-expressed?

Preparation for Possible Sustained Transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Lessons From Previous Epidemics https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761285 February 11, 2020 David L. Swerdlow, MD1; Lyn Finelli, DrPH, MS2 Author Affiliations Article Information JAMA. 2020;323(12):1129-1130. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1960 COVID-19 Resource Center related articles icon Related Articles author interview icon Interviews Audio Interview (25:53) COVID-19 Update From China Transmissibility and severity are the 2 most critical factors that determine the effect of an epidemic. Neither the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus ([H1N1]pdm09) pandemic or the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) or the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemics had the combination of both high transmissibility and severity. Control strategies are driven by this combination. R0, the basic reproduction number, is a commonly used measure of transmissibility and is defined as the number of additional persons one case infects over the course of their illness. An R0 of less than 1 indicates the infection will die out “eventually.” An R0 of greater than 1 indicates the infection has the potential for sustained transmission. For example, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, first identified in southern California on April 15, 2009, was highly transmissible. By May 5, 2009, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 had spread to 41 US states and 21 countries.1 While influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was highly transmissible, it was not severe. Initial estimates of the R0 of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were 1.7.2 Although an estimated 201 200 respiratory deaths due to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred during the first year of the pandemic, the number of deaths per population was 30 times lower than that seen during the 1968 influenza pandemic, 1000 times less than the 1918 pandemic, and even less than typical seasonal influenza epidemics (estimated by the World Health Organization [WHO] to be 250 000 to 500 000 per year, although estimation methods differ).3 Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was highly transmissible but not severe. SARS-CoV (2003) and MERS-CoV (2012-current) cause severe disease, but despite the initial R0 estimations of greater than 2.0 for SARS-CoV (indicating sustained and even worldwide transmission could occur), and some large outbreaks, neither were as transmissible as initial concerns suggested. SARS-CoV caused 8098 reported cases and 774 deaths (case-fatality rate, 9.6%) in 37 countries before the epidemic was controlled. Control was thought to have been possible because a high proportion of cases were severe, making it easier to rapidly identify and isolate infected individuals. In addition, the virus was present at lower levels in upper airway secretions. There was no secondary transmission in the United States from the 8 imported cases, although in Toronto, Canada, a single importation is thought to have led to about 400 cases and 44 deaths. Later estimates of R0 were less than 1, indicating that SARS-CoV may not have been capable of sustained transmission, especially in the setting of control measures.4 Similarly, MERS-CoV appears to have high severity and low transmissibility. Since 2012, MERS-CoV has caused 2494 reported cases and 858 deaths (case-fatality rate, 34%) in 27 countries. MERS-CoV has also caused some rapid outbreaks, mainly in hospitals in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and South Korea, but estimates of MERS-CoV R0 are less than 1, and thus far it has been contained.5 Can a respiratory virus that is both transmissible and severe be contained? In preparation for an influenza pandemic, the US Department of Health and Human Services’ Pandemic Influenza Plan included a combination of nonpharmaceutical (border and school closing, infection control measures) and pharmaceutical (antiviral prophylaxis, vaccines) interventions meant to be used in combination to interrupt or slow influenza transmission. Despite implementation of some of these interventions, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 spread to 120 countries in 3 months. With the emergence of MERS-CoV in the Middle East, a preparedness plan was developed that included a surveillance plan, laboratory testing, and contact tracing guidance. Infection control guidance was developed for use in health care settings and traveler guidance was developed for the public.6 The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) distributed MERS-CoV polymerase chain reaction test kits to state health departments. Two cases were imported into the United States. Contacts were traced, including household, hospital, and airline contacts. No secondary cases were identified in the United States. MERS-CoV was thought to be severe and control measures relied on recognition of suspect cases. However, during a hospital outbreak in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, among hospitalized patients only 5 of 53 (9%) health care–associated cases had documented presence in the same room as a patient with MERS.5 Despite the high case-fatality rate (an important measure of severity), MERS cases can be asymptomatic and mild (25% in one outbreak). Although it is not known how often asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic patients transmit MERS, initiating comprehensive measures such as isolating patients suspected of having or having been exposed to the virus and using personal protective equipment when caring for them may be extremely difficult because so many patients have mild and nonspecific symptoms. Is the world ready for a respiratory virus with high transmissibility and severity? After a new influenza virus (H7N9) was identified in China in 2013, a series of modeling articles described the effect of, and level of preparedness for, a severe, single-wave pandemic in the United States.7 In scenarios that used clinical attack rates (the proportion of individuals who become ill with or die from a disease in a population initially uninfected) of 20% to 30% (for comparison the clinical attack rate was 20% in the first year of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic), depending on severity there would be an estimated 669 000 to 4.3 million hospitalizations and an estimated 54 000 to 538 000 deaths without any interventions in the United States. The models suggested that without a vaccine, school closures would be unlikely to affect the pandemic, an estimated 35 000 to 60 000 ventilators would be needed, up to an estimated 7.3 billion surgical masks or respirators would be required, and perhaps most important, if vaccine development did not start before the virus was introduced, it was unlikely that a significant number of hospitalizations and deaths could be averted due to the time it takes to develop, test, manufacture, and distribute a vaccine. It is impossible to know what will happen so early in this novel 2019 coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemic. The scope, morbidity, and mortality will depend on the combination of severity and transmissibility. Numerous experts have “nowcasted” how many cases have occurred and forecasted how many cases will likely occur. A recent study suggests rapid person to person transmission can occur.8 Disease modelers have estimated R0 to be 2.2.9 The University of Hong Kong estimates the outbreak could infect more than 150 000 persons per day in China at its peak. Is 2019-nCoV infection severe? To date approximately 14% of cases of 2019-nCoV have been described as severe by WHO, with a case-fatality rate of 2.1%.10 Estimates of severity are usually higher in the beginning of an epidemic due to the identification of the most severely affected cases and decline as the epidemic progresses. However, because many infected persons have not yet recovered and may still die, the case-fatality rate and severity could be underestimated. On January 30, 2020, WHO officially declared the 2019-nCoV epidemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, indicating its concern that countries aside from China could be affected by 2019-nCoV. In preparing for possible sustained transmission of 2019-nCoV beyond China, applicable lessons from previous experiences with epidemics/pandemics of respiratory viruses should be carefully considered to better control and mitigate potential consequences. Influenza preparedness plans have been developed that aim to stop, slow, or limit the spread of an influenza pandemic to the United States. These plans address limiting domestic spread and mitigating disease but also sustaining infrastructure and reducing the adverse effects of the pandemic on the economy and society. These plans would be useful to enact during the 2019-nCoV epidemic should the United States experience sustained transmission. Countries have been successful in the past and there is nothing yet to predict that this time it is likely to be worse. Effective prevention and control will not be easy if there is sustained transmission and will require the full attention of public health, federal and local governments, the private sector, and every citizen. Back to topArticle Information Corresponding Author: David L. Swerdlow, MD, Clinical Epidemiology Lead, Medical Development and Scientific/Clinical Affairs, Pfizer Vaccines, 500 Arcola Rd, Collegeville, PA 19426 (david.swerdlow@pfizer.com). Published Online: February 11, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1960 Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Swerdlow reports owning stock and stock options in Pfizer Inc. Dr Swerdlow also reports providing a one-time consultation consisting of an overview of SARS and MERS epidemiology to GLG Consulting and receiving an honorarium. Dr Finelli reports owning stock in Merck and Co. Funding/Support: Pfizer Inc provided salary support for Dr Swerdlow. Role of the Funder/Sponsor: Pfizer Inc reviewed the manuscript and approved the decision to submit the manuscript for publication. References 1. Swerdlow DL, Finelli L, Bridges CB. 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: field and epidemiologic investigations in the United States at the start of the first pandemic of the 21st century. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52(suppl 1):S1-S3. doi:10.1093/cid/ciq005PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref 2. Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, et al. Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility. BMC Medicine. 2009;7(45). doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-45 3. Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, et al. Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2012;12(9):687-695. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref 4. Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Kribs-Zaleta CM, Arriola L, Hyman JM. Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10(7):1258-1263. doi:10.3201/eid1007.030647PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref 5. Killerby ME, Biggs HM, Midgley CM, Gerber SI, Watson JT. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(2):191-198. doi:10.3201/eid2602.190697PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref 6. Rasmussen SA, Watson AK, Swerdlow DL. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Microbiol Spectr. 2016;4(3). doi:10.1128/microbiolspec.EI10-0020-2016PubMedGoogle Scholar 7. Swerdlow DL, Pillai SK, Meltzer MI, eds. CDC modeling efforts in response to a potential public health emergency: influenza A(H7N9) as an example. Clin Infect Dis. 2015;60(suppl):S1-S63. https://academic.oup.com/cid/issue/60/suppl_1.Google Scholar 8. Wang D, Hu B, Hu C, et al. Clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA. Published online February 7, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1585 ArticlePubMedGoogle Scholar 9. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. Published online January 29, 2020. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316PubMedGoogle Scholar 10. World Health Organization. Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/. Accessed February 4, 2020. Comment 2 Comments for this articleEXPAND ALL February 12, 2020 Understanding R and Disease Control Oz Mansoor | Public Health Physician, Wellington The message, that we need to prepare for a pandemic is vital. But the article misreports some key ideas. Firstly, SARS was not controlled "because a high proportion of cases were severe." While that helped , it was because cases were not infectious before some days after symptom onset (usually in the second week of illness). This gave more time for case identification and isolation. And most cases did not pass on infection to anybody, but a few spread to many. When all such individuals were identified and isolated, spread stopped. Unfortunately, the new virusappears to be spreading from people much earlier in the course of illness, and even with mild symptoms - which was never documented for SARS. However, it is not clear that it is any different or better at spread between people, and perhaps with the same pattern of most cases not causing further spread. Secondly, the R0, the basic reproduction number, is correctly described as the average number of infections each case causes. But it lacks two key ideas: 1) the 0 after the R implies the native state, which is a fully susceptible population and without any control measures. R is the effectiive number and can include the impact of control measures. To claim that it was the lack of transmissibility, rather than the control measures that ended SARS, is not based on any evidence. And it ignores the heroic efforts of affected countries. Elimination of SARS demonstrated the potential of globally coordinated collective action, as well as the damage caused by ignorance and prejudice. Most seem to have already forgotten the lessons of SARS.CONFLICT OF INTEREST: Worked for WHO/WPRO in SARS responseREAD MORE February 24, 2020 COVID 19: a global presence and not only a new pathogen? Giuliano Ramadori, Professor of Medicine | University Clinic, Göttingen, Germany In the winter season there comes the time of upper and lower respiratory tract infections characterised by cough, dyspnea and eventually fever (influenza-like illness).Some of the patients, especially older people living alone affected by the disease ,may need hospitalization and eventually intensive care. In many of the cases who are hospitalized nasal and/or tracheal fluid are examined for viral or bacterial agents. Only in less than 50% of the cases influenza viruses are considered to be the cause of the disease.In the rest of the cases diagnostic procedure for human coronaviruses is not performed routinely. One of the fourdifferent Human Coronaviruses (HuCoV: 229E,NL 63,0C43 and HKU1) can however be found in up to 30% ofpatients negative for influenza viruses (1). Chinese scientists in Wuhan, who had to deal with an increasing number of acute respiratory tract diseases resembling viral pneumonia, performed deep sequencing analysis from samples taken from the lower respiratory tract and found a "novel" coronavirus. The sequence of the complete genome was made public. At the same time, however, the notice from Wuhan brought to mind the SARS- and MERS-epidemics. The measures taken by the Chinese- and WHO-authorities are now well known. Recently about 150 new cases have been identified in northern Italy and health authorities are still looking for case 0 (the source). Is it possible that COVID-19 was already existent in Italy -- and not only in Italy but possibly everywhere in the world -- and that newly available nucleotide sequence allows now to find the cause of previously undefined influenza-like illness? REFERENCE 1. Benezit F et al.:Non-influenza respiratory viruses in adult patients admitted with influenza-like illness:a 3- year prospective multicenter study.Infection, 13 february 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/s15010-019-01388-1).CONFLICT OF INTEREST: None ReportedREAD MORE See More About Global Health Public Health Pulmonary Medicine Infectious Diseases Influenza Download PDF Cite This PermissionsComment CME & MOC Coronavirus Resource Center Trending Opinion is learning has multimedia US Emergency Legal Responses to Novel Coronavirus—Balancing Public Health and Civil Liberties March 24, 2020 Opinion is learning has multimedia 2019 Novel Coronavirus—Important Information for Clinicians March 17, 2020 Research is learning has multimedia Clinical Characteristics of Patients With Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection Hospitalized in Beijing, China March 17, 2020 Select Your Interests JOB LISTINGS ON JAMA CAREER CENTER® ACADEMIC CARDIOLOGIST: HEART FAILURE SPECIALIST Phoenix, Arizona NONINVASIVE CARDIOLOGIST West Grove, Pennsylvania CARDIOLOGIST Phoenixville, Pennsylvania CARDIAC INTENSIVIST FACULTY West Reading, Pennsylvania CLINICAL FACULTY: CARDIOLOGY / ELECTROPHYSIOLOGIST Phoenix, Arizona See more at JAMA Career Center Others Also Liked Coronavirus Dx Emergency Use Authorizations Progressing Rapidly Despite Criticism Madeleine Johnson, 360Dx, 2020 Analysis of therapeutic targets for SARS-CoV-2 and discovery of potential drugs by computational methods Canrong Wu, Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B, 2020 Commercial Labs Step up Coronavirus Test Efforts After FDA Guidance 360Dx, 2020 Powered by Trending US Emergency Legal Responses to Novel Coronavirus—Balancing Public Health and Civil Liberties JAMA Opinion March 24, 2020 Practical Aspects of Otolaryngologic Clinical Services During the COVID-19 Epidemic JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery Opinion March 20, 2020 2019 Novel Coronavirus—Important Information for Clinicians JAMA Opinion March 17, 2020 JAMA CONTENT Home New Online Current Issue JOURNAL INFORMATION For Authors Editors & Publishers RSS Contact Us JN Learning / CME Store Apps Jobs Institutions Reprints & Permissions Journal Cover Subscribe Go JAMA Network PUBLICATIONS JAMA JAMA Network Open JAMA Cardiology JAMA Dermatology JAMA Facial Plastic Surgery JAMA Health Forum JAMA Internal Medicine JAMA Neurology JAMA Oncology JAMA Ophthalmology JAMA Otolaryngology–Head & Neck Surgery JAMA Pediatrics JAMA Psychiatry JAMA Surgery Archives of Neurology & Psychiatry (1919-1959) SITES AMA Manual of Style Art and Images in Psychiatry Breast Cancer Screening Guidelines Colorectal Screening Guidelines Declaration of Helsinki Depression Screening Guidelines Evidence-Based Medicine: An Oral History Fishbein Fellowship Genomics and Precision Health Health Disparities Hypertension Guidelines JAMA Network Audio JAMA Network Conferences Machine Learning Med Men Medical Education Opioid Management Guidelines Peer Review Congress Research Ethics Sepsis and Septic Shock Statins and Dyslipidemia Topics and Collections FEATURED ARTICLES ACS Breast Cancer Screening Guideline CDC Guideline for Prescribing Opioids CDC Guideline for Prevention of Surgical Site Infections Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock Global Burden of Cancer, 1990-2016 Global Burden of Disease in Children, 1990-2013 Global Burden of Hypertension, 1990-2015 Global Firearm Mortality, 1990-2016 Health Care Spending in the US and Other High-Income Countries Income and Life Expectancy in the US JNC 8 Guideline for Management of High Blood Pressure President Obama on US Health Care Reform Screening for Colorectal Cancer Screening for Depression in Adults Screening for Prostate Cancer Statins for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease The State of US Health, 1990-2016 US Burden of Cardiovascular Disease, 1990-2016 WMA Declaration of Helsinki, 7th Revision BLOGS JAMA Health Forum AMA Style Insider INFORMATION FOR Authors Institutions & Librarians Advertisers Subscription Agents Employers & Job Seekers Media JAMA NETWORK PRODUCTS AMA Manual of Style JAMAevidence JN Listen Peer Review Congress JN LEARNING Home CME Quizzes State CME Audio / Podcast Courses Clinical Challenge CME Atrial Fibrillation Course Marijuana Course Penicillin Allergy Course Cervical Cancer Screening Course CME / MOC Reporting Preferences About CME & MOC Help Subscriptions & Renewals Email Subscriptions Update Your Address Contact Us Frequently Asked Questions JAMA CAREER CENTER Physician Job Listings Get the latest from JAMA Email address Sign Up Privacy Policy | Terms of Use Jama Network Logo © 2020 American Medical Association. 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What was the clinical attack rate in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic?

Community-acquired pneumonia in children — a changing spectrum of disease https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608782/ SHA: eecb946b106a94f26a79a964f0160e8e16f79f42 Authors: le Roux, David M.; Zar, Heather J. Date: 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00247-017-3827-8 License: cc-by Abstract: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, despite advances in prevention and management. Over the last 20 years, there has been a substantial decrease in the incidence of childhood pneumonia and pneumonia-associated mortality. New conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae have contributed to decreases in radiologic, clinical and complicated pneumonia cases and have reduced hospitalization and mortality. The importance of co-infections with multiple pathogens and the predominance of viral-associated disease are emerging. Better access to effective preventative and management strategies is needed in low- and middle-income countries, while new strategies are needed to address the residual burden of disease once these have been implemented. Text: Pneumonia has been the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years for decades. Although there have been substantial decreases in overall child mortality and in pneumonia-specific mortality, pneumonia remains the major single cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, causing approximately 900,000 of the estimated 6.3 million child deaths in 2013 [1] . Substantial advances have occurred in the understanding of risk factors and etiology of pneumonia, in development of standardized case definitions, and in prevention with the production of improved vaccines and in treatment. Such advances have led to changes in the epidemiology, etiology and mortality from childhood pneumonia. However in many areas access to these interventions remains sub-optimal, with large inequities between and within countries and regions. In this paper we review the impact of recent preventative and management advances in pneumonia epidemiology, etiology, radiologic presentation and outcome in children. The overall burden of childhood pneumonia has been reduced substantially over the last decade, despite an increase in the global childhood population from 605 million in 2000 to 664 million in 2015 [2] . Recent data suggest that there has been a 25% decrease in the incidence of pneumonia, from 0.29 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries in 2000, to 0.22 episodes per child year in 2010 [3] . This is substantiated by a 58% decrease in pneumonia-associated disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2013, from 186 million to 78 million as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study [1] . Pneumonia deaths decreased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 900,000 in 2013 [1] . These data do not reflect the full impact of increasingly widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-and middle-income countries because the incidence of pneumonia and number of deaths are likely to decrease still further as a result of this widespread intervention [4] . Notwithstanding this progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of disease in low-and middle-income countries, where more than 90% of pneumonia cases and deaths occur. The incidence in high-income countries is estimated at 0.015 episodes per child year, compared to 0.22 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries [3] . On average, 1 in 66 children in high-income countries is affected by pneumonia per year, compared to 1 in 5 children in low-and middle-income countries. Even within low-and middleincome countries there are regional inequities and challenges with access to health care services: up to 81% of severe pneumonia deaths occur outside a hospital [5] . In addition to a higher incidence of pneumonia, the case fatality rate is estimated to be almost 10-fold higher in low-and middle-income countries as compared to high-income countries [3, 5] . Childhood pneumonia can also lead to significant morbidity and chronic disease. Early life pneumonia can impair longterm lung health by decreasing lung function [6] . Severe or recurrent pneumonia can have a worse effect on lung function; increasing evidence suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease might be related to early childhood pneumonia [7, 8] . A meta-analysis of the risk of long-term outcomes after childhood pneumonia categorized chronic respiratory sequelae into major (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) and minor (chronic bronchitis, asthma, abnormal pulmonary function) groups [9] . The risk of developing at least one of the major sequelae was estimated as 6% after an ambulatory pneumonia event and 14% after an episode of hospitalized pneumonia. Because respiratory diseases affect almost 1 billion people globally and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity [10] , childhood pneumonia might contribute to substantial morbidity across the life course. Chest radiologic changes have been considered the gold standard for defining a pneumonia event [11] because clinical findings can be subjective and clinical definitions of pneumonia can be nonspecific. In 2005, to aid in defining outcomes of pneumococcal vaccine studies, the World Health Organization's (WHO) standardized chest radiograph description defined a group of children who were considered most likely to have pneumococcal pneumonia [12] . The term "end-point consolidation" was described as a dense or fluffy opacity that occupies a portion or whole of a lobe, or the entire lung. "Other infiltrate" included linear and patchy densities, peribronchial thickening, minor patchy infiltrates that are not of sufficient magnitude to constitute primary end-point consolidation, and small areas of atelectasis that in children can be difficult to distinguish from consolidation. "Primary end-point pneumonia" included either end-point consolidation or a pleural effusion associated with a pulmonary parenchymal infiltrate (including "other" infiltrate). Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination has decreased the incidence of radiologic pneumonia. In a review of four randomized controlled trials and two case-control studies of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in high-burden communities, the vaccination was associated with an 18% decrease in radiologic pneumonia [13] . Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination was associated with a 26% decrease in radiologic pneumonia in California between 1995 and 1998 [14] . In vaccine efficacy trials in low-and middle-income countries, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduced radiologic pneumonia by 37% in the Gambia [15] , 25% in South Africa [16] and 26% in the Philippines [17] . The WHO radiologic case definition was not intended to distinguish bacterial from viral etiology but rather to define a sub-set of pneumonia cases in which pneumococcal infection was considered more likely and to provide a set of standardized definitions through which researchers could achieve broad agreement in reporting chest radiographs. However, despite widespread field utilization, there are concerns regarding inter-observer repeatability. There has been good consensus for the description of lobar consolidation but significant disagreement on the description of patchy and perihilar infiltrates [18, 19] . In addition, many children with clinically severe lung disease do not have primary end-point pneumonia: in one pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination study, only 34% of children hospitalized with pneumonia had primary end-point pneumonia [20] . A revised case definition of "presumed bacterial pneumonia" has been introduced, and this definition includes pneumonia cases with WHO-defined alveolar consolidation, as well as those with other abnormal chest radiograph infiltrates and a serum C-reactive protein of at least 40 mg/L [21, 22] . This definition has been shown to have greater sensitivity than the original WHO radiologic definition of primary end-point pneumonia for detecting the burden of pneumonia prevented by pneumococcal conjugate vaccination [23] . Using the revised definition, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-10), had a vaccine efficacy of 22% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in young children in South America [22] , and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 had a vaccine efficacy of 39% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in children older than 16 weeks who were not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa [21] . Thus there is convincing evidence that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination decreases the incidence of radiologic pneumonia; however there is no evidence to suggest that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination modifies the radiologic appearance of pneumococcal pneumonia. Empyema is a rare complication of pneumonia. An increased incidence of empyema in children was noted in some high-income countries following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 introduction, and this was attributed to pneumococcal serotypes not included in pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, especially 3 and 19A [24] . In the United States, evidence from a national hospital database suggests that the incidence of empyema increased 1.9-fold between 1996 and 2008 [25] . In Australia, the incidence rate ratio increased by 1.4 times when comparing the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (1998 to 2004) to the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (2005 to 2010) [26] . In Scotland, incidence of empyema in children rose from 6.5 per million between 1981 and 1998, to 66 per million in 2005 [27] . These trends have been reversed since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13. Data from the United States suggest that empyema decreased by 50% in children younger than 5 years [28] ; similarly, data from the United Kingdom and Scotland showed substantial reduction in pediatric empyema following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 introduction [29, 30] . Several national guidelines from high-income countries, as well as the WHO recommendations for low-and middleincome countries, recommend that chest radiography should not be routinely performed in children with ambulatory pneumonia [31] [32] [33] . Indications for chest radiography include hospitalization, severe hypoxemia or respiratory distress, failed initial antibiotic therapy, or suspicion for other diseases (tuberculosis, inhaled foreign body) or complications. However, point-of-care lung ultrasound is emerging as a promising modality for diagnosing childhood pneumonia [34] . In addition to the effect on radiologic pneumonia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from viral-associated pneumonia, probably by reducing bacterial-viral co-infections resulting in severe disease and hospitalization [35] . An analysis of ecological and observational studies of pneumonia incidence in different age groups soon after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 in Canada, Italy, Australia, Poland and the United States showed decreases in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations ranging from 15% to 65% [36] . In the United States after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 replaced pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, there was a further 17% decrease in hospitalizations for pneumonia among children eligible for the vaccination, and a further 12% decrease among unvaccinated adults [28] . A systematic review of etiology studies prior to availability of new conjugate vaccines confirmed S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type B as the most important bacterial causes of pneumonia, with Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae associated with some severe cases. Respiratory syncytial virus was the leading viral cause, identified in 15-40% of pneumonia cases, followed by influenza A and B, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus [37] . More recent meta-analyses of etiology data suggest a changing pathogen profile, with increasing recognition that clinical pneumonia is caused by the sequential or concurrent interaction of more than one organism. Severe disease in particular is often caused by multiple pathogens. With high coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination, viral pathogens increasingly predominate [38] . In recent case-control studies, at least one virus was detected in 87% of clinical pneumonia cases in South Africa [39] , while viruses were detected in 81% of radiologic pneumonia cases in Sweden [40] . In a large multi-center study in the United States, viral pathogens were detected in 73% of children hospitalized with radiologic pneumonia, while bacteria were detected in only 15% of cases [41] . A meta-analysis of 23 case-control studies of viral etiology in radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children, completed up to 2014, reported good evidence of causal attribution for respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [42] . However there was no consistent evidence that many other commonly described viruses, including rhinovirus, adenovirus, bocavirus and coronavirus, were more commonly isolated from cases than from controls. Further attribution of bacterial etiology is difficult because it is often not possible to distinguish colonizing from pathogenic bacteria when they are isolated from nasal specimens [43] . Another etiology is pertussis. In the last decade there has also been a resurgence in pertussis cases, especially in highincome countries [44] . Because pertussis immunity after acellular pertussis vaccination is less long-lasting than immunity after wild-type infection or whole-cell vaccination, many women of child-bearing age have waning pertussis antibody levels. Their infants might therefore be born with low transplacental anti-pertussis immunoglobulin G levels, making them susceptible to pertussis infection before completion of the primary vaccination series [45] . In 2014, more than 40,000 pertussis cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States; in some states, population-based incidence rates are higher than at any time in the last 70 years [44] . In contrast, most low-and middleincome countries use whole-cell pertussis vaccines and the numbers of pertussis cases in those countries were stable or decreasing until 2015 [46] . However recent evidence from South Africa (where the acellular vaccine is used) shows an appreciable incidence of pertussis among infants presenting with acute pneumonia: 2% of clinical pneumonia cases among infants enrolled in a birth cohort were caused by pertussis [39] , and 3.7% of infants and young children presenting to a tertiary academic hospital had evidence of pertussis infection [47] . Similarly, childhood tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-and middle-income countries, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increasingly been recognized as a pathogen in acute pneumonia in children living in high tuberculosis-prevalence settings. Postmortem studies of children dying from acute respiratory illness have commonly reported M. tuberculosis [48, 49] . A recent systematic review of tuberculosis as a comorbidity of childhood pneumonia reported culture-confirmed disease in about 8% of cases [50] . Because intrathoracic tuberculosis disease is only culture-confirmed in a minority of cases, the true burden could be even higher; tuberculosis could therefore be an important contributor to childhood pneumonia incidence and mortality in high-prevalence areas. Childhood pneumonia and clinically severe disease result from a complex interaction of host and environmental risk factors [37] . Because of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination for prevention of radiologic and clinical pneumonia, incomplete or inadequate vaccination must be considered as a major preventable risk factor for childhood pneumonia. Other risk factors include low birth weight, which is associated with 3.2 times increased odds of severe pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.8 times increased odds in high-income countries [51] . Similarly, lack of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4 months of life increases odds of severe pneumonia by 2.7 times in low-and middle-income countries and 1.3 times in highincome countries. Markers of undernutrition are strong risk factors for pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries only, with highly significant odds ratios for underweight for age (4.5), stunting (2.6) and wasting (2.8) . Household crowding has uniform risk, with odds ratios between 1.9 and 2.3 in both low-and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Indoor air pollution from use of solid or biomass fuels increases odds of pneumonia by 1.6 times; lack of measles vaccination by the end of the first year of age increases odds of pneumonia by 1.8 times [51] . It is estimated that the prevalence of these critical risk factors in low-and middle-income countries decreased by 25% between 2000 and 2010, contributing to reductions in pneumonia incidence and mortality in low-and middle-income countries, even in countries where conjugate vaccines have not been available [3] . The single strongest risk factor for pneumonia is HIV infection, which is especially prevalent in children in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-infected children have 6 times increased odds of developing severe pneumonia or of death compared to HIV-uninfected children [52] . Since the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, there is a growing population of HIV-exposed children who are uninfected; their excess risk of pneumonia, compared to HIV unexposed children, has been described as 1.3-to 3.4-fold higher [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination have been effective tools to decrease pneumonia incidence, severity and mortality [58, 59] . However, equitable coverage and access to vaccines remains sub-optimal. By the end of 2015, Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination had been introduced in 73 countries, with global coverage estimated at 68%. However, inequities are still apparent among regions: in the Americas coverage is estimated at 90%, while in the Western Pacific it is only 25%. By 2015, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination had been introduced into 54 countries, with global coverage of 35% for three doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination for infant populations [60] . To address this issue, the WHO's Global Vaccine Access Plan initiative was launched to make life-saving vaccines more equitably available. In addition to securing guarantees for financing of vaccines, the program objectives include building political will in low-and middle-income countries to commit to immunization as a priority, social marketing to individuals and communities, strengthening health systems and promoting relevant local research and development innovations [61] . Maternal vaccination to prevent disease in the youngest infants has been shown to be effective for tetanus, influenza and pertussis [62] . Influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe, provides reasonable maternal protection against influenza, and also protects infants for a limited period from confirmed influenza infection (vaccine efficacy 63% in Bangladesh [63] and 50.4% in South Africa [64] ). However as antibody levels drop sharply after birth, infant protection does not persist much beyond 8 weeks [65] . Recently respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to be safe and immunogenic, and a phase-3 clinical trial of efficacy at preventing respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants is under way [66] . Within a decade, respiratory syncytial virus in infancy might be vaccine-preventable, with further decreases in pneumonia incidence, morbidity and mortality [67] . Improved access to health care, better nutrition and improved living conditions might contribute to further decreases in childhood pneumonia burden. The WHO Integrated Global Action Plan for diarrhea and pneumonia highlights many opportunities to protect, prevent and treat children [68] . Breastfeeding rates can be improved by programs that combine education and counseling interventions in homes, communities and health facilities, and by promotion of baby-friendly hospitals [69] . Improved home ventilation, cleaner cooking fuels and reduction in exposure to cigarette smoke are essential interventions to reduce the incidence and severity of pneumonia [70, 71] . Prevention of pediatric HIV is possible by providing interventions to prevent mother-to-child transmission [72] . Early infant HIV testing and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can substantially reduce the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-infected children [73] . Community-based interventions reduce pneumonia mortality and have the indirect effect of improved-careseeking behavior [58] . If these cost-effective interventions were scaled up, it is estimated that 67% of pneumonia deaths in lowand middle-income countries could be prevented by 2025 [58] . Case management of pneumonia is a strategy by which severity of disease is classified as severe or non-severe. All children receive early, appropriate oral antibiotics, and severe cases are referred for parenteral antibiotics. When implemented in highburden areas before the availability of conjugate vaccines, case management as part of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness was associated with a 27% decrease in overall child mortality, and 42% decrease in pneumonia-specific mortality [74] . However the predominance of viral causes of pneumonia and low case fatality have prompted concern about overuse of antibiotics. Several randomized controlled trials comparing oral antibiotics to placebo for non-severe pneumonia have been performed [75] [76] [77] and others are ongoing [78] . In two studies, performed in Denmark and in India, outcomes of antibiotic and placebo treatments were equivalent [76, 77] . In the third study, in Pakistan, there was a non-significant 24% vs. 20% rate of failure in the placebo group, which was deemed to be non-equivalent to the antibiotic group [75] . Furthermore, because WHO-classified non-severe pneumonia and bronchiolitis might be considered within a spectrum of lower respiratory disease, many children with clinical pneumonia could actually have viral bronchiolitis, for which antibiotics are not beneficial [79] . This has been reflected in British [33] and Spanish [31] national pneumonia guidelines, which do not recommend routine antibiotic treatment for children younger than 2 years with evidence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination who present with non-severe pneumonia. The United States' national guidelines recommend withholding antibiotics in children up to age 5 years presenting with non-severe pneumonia [32] . However, given the high mortality from pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, the lack of easy access to care, and the high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease, revised World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines still recommend antibiotic treatment for all children who meet the WHO pneumonia case definitions [80] . Use of supplemental oxygen is life-saving, but this is not universally available in low-and middle-income countries; it is estimated that use of supplemental oxygen systems could reduce mortality of children with hypoxic pneumonia by 20% [81] . Identifying systems capacity to increase availability of oxygen in health facilities, and identifying barriers to further implementation are among the top 15 priorities for future childhood pneumonia research [82] . However, up to 81% of pneumonia deaths in 2010 occurred outside health facilities [5] , so there are major challenges with access to health services and health-seeking behavior of vulnerable populations. Identifying and changing the barriers to accessing health care is an important area with the potential to impact the survival and health of the most vulnerable children [82] . Much progress has been made in decreasing deaths caused by childhood pneumonia. Improved socioeconomic status and vaccinations, primarily the conjugate vaccines (against Haemophilus influenzae and pneumococcus), have led to substantial reductions in the incidence and severity of childhood pneumonia. Stronger strategies to prevent and manage HIV have reduced HIV-associated pneumonia deaths. However, despite the substantial changes in incidence, etiology and radiology globally, there remain inequities in access to care and availability of effective interventions, especially in low-and middle-income countries. Effective interventions need to be more widely available and new interventions developed for the residual burden of childhood pneumonia.

What caused the increase in the incidence of empyema in children in the recent past?

Population-Based Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors in Infants Less Than 6 Months in Nepal https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5907881/ SHA: ef821e34873d4752ecae41cd9dfc08a5e6db45e2 Authors: Hughes, Michelle M; Englund, Janet A; Kuypers, Jane; Tielsch, James M; Khatry, Subarna K; Shrestha, Laxman; LeClerq, Steven C; Steinhoff, Mark; Katz, Joanne Date: 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.1093/jpids/piw079 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Pertussis is estimated to cause 2 percent of childhood deaths globally and is a growing public health problem in developed countries despite high vaccination coverage. Infants are at greatest risk of morbidity and mortality. Maternal vaccination during pregnancy may be effective to prevent pertussis in young infants, but population-based estimates of disease burden in infants are lacking, particularly in low-income countries. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of pertussis in infants less than 6 months of age in Sarlahi District, Nepal. METHODS: Nested within a population-based randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination during pregnancy, infants were visited weekly from birth through 6 months to assess respiratory illness in the prior week. If any respiratory symptoms had occurred, a nasal swab was collected and tested with a multitarget pertussis polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. The prospective cohort study includes infants observed between May 2011 and August 2014. RESULTS: The incidence of PCR-confirmed Bordetella pertussis was 13.3 cases per 1000 infant-years (95% confidence interval, 7.7–21.3) in a cohort of 3483 infants with at least 1 day of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based active home surveillance for respiratory illness, a low risk for pertussis was estimated among infants in rural Nepal. Nepal’s immunization program, which includes a childhood whole cell pertussis vaccine, may be effective in controlling pertussis in infants. Text: A resurgence of pertussis across age groups has occurred in several countries in recent years [1] . Middle-and high-income countries that use an acellular pertussis vaccine for the primary vaccination series have been particularly affected [2, 3] , and infants and adolescents have experienced the greatest increase [4] . Factors that may contribute to the increased risk of pertussis include rapidly waning immunity from those vaccinated with acellular vaccines [1, 5, 6] , asymptomatic transmission from individuals vaccinated with acellular vaccines [7] , genetic adaption of Bordetella pertussis [8] , vaccination delay or refusal [9] , improved surveillance and laboratory capabilities [2] , and overall increased awareness of the continuing circulation of B pertussis [1] . Some countries experiencing epidemic pertussis, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Argentina, now recommend pertussis immunization in pregnancy and vaccination of close contacts [10, 11] to protect the youngest infants from pertussis before they can be vaccinated themselves [12] . Recent data from maternal vaccination trials demonstrate the ability of antibodies to be transferred from mothers to their infants in pregnancy and their persistence in infants [13] . Global estimates of pertussis show the highest childhood burden in Southeast Asia [14] . In this region, maternal pertussis vaccination during pregnancy may be a way to protect infants, similar to the approach using tetanus toxoid vaccine. However, globally only 1 population-based estimate of pertussis in infants from birth has been conducted (Senegal) [15] , and surveillance and laboratory capabilities in Asia are lacking [16, 17] . The World Health Organization (WHO) recently recommended that countries using whole cell pertussis vaccines continue to do so in light of recent data indicating that acellular pertussis vaccines are less effective than whole cell pertussis vaccines [18] . Population-based data are needed, especially in low-income settings, to provide a more accurate estimate of the burden of pertussis in infants to inform childhood and maternal immunization policies [19, 20] . We report on a prospective cohort study following infants weekly in their homes to monitor for pertussis disease from birth to age 6 months. The objective was to provide a population-based estimate of laboratory-confirmed pertussis incidence in infants less than 6 months of age in the Sarlahi District, Nepal. The study was nested within 2 consecutive randomized controlled trials of maternal influenza vaccination during pregnancy set in the Sarlahi District, located in the central Terai (low-lying plains) region of Nepal [21] . At the start of the trial, prevalent pregnancies were identified through a census of all households in the catchment area. For the duration of the trial, field workers visited all households in the communities, every 5 weeks, where married women (15-40 years) resided, for surveillance of incident pregnancies. Once a pregnancy was identified, women provided consent and were enrolled. From April 25, 2011 through September 9, 2013, women between 17 and 34 weeks gestation were randomized and vaccinated with either an influenza vaccine or placebo. The study was a population-based prospective cohort of infants followed from birth through 6 months postpartum. Approval for the study was obtained from the Institutional Review Boards at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Cincinnati Children's Medical Center, the Institute of Medicine at Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, and the Nepal Health Research Council. The trials are registered at Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01034254). At baseline, information was collected on household structure, socioeconomic status, and demographics. At enrollment, date of last menstrual period and pregnancy history data were collected. As soon as possible after delivery, the mother and infant were visited to collect detailed birth information including infant weight and breastfeeding status. From birth through 6 months, postpartum infants were visited weekly by a field worker, who recorded any infant respiratory symptoms in the past 7 days. If an infant had any of the following symptoms, a mid-nasal nylon flocked swab was collected: fever, cough, wheeze, difficulty breathing, or ear infection. Starting on August 17, 2012, new symptoms, more specific for pertussis, were added to the weekly morbidity visit: apnea, cyanosis, cough with vomit, or whoop/whooping cough. The swabs were stored for up to 1 week at room temperature in PrimeStore Molecular Transport Medium (Longhorn Diagnostics LLC, Bethesda, MD). In addition to these signs, mothers were asked which, if any, infant vaccinations were received in the past 7 days, including pertussis vaccination [22] . Mid-nasal swabs were also collected on a weekly basis from mothers from enrollment through 6 months postpartum who reported fever plus one additional morbidity (cough, sore throat, nasal congestion, or myalgia). All nasal swabs collected from infants were tested for B pertussis, Bordetella parapertussis, and Bordetella bronchispetica. Only the nasal swabs of mothers whose infants tested positive for any of these pathogens were tested for the same pathogens. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing was conducted at the University of Washington's Molecular Virology Laboratory according to previously published methods [23] . Two-target PCR was used to assess the presence of 3 Bordetella species: B pertussis, B parapertussis, and B bronchiseptica. The amplified targets were chromosomal repeated insertion sequence IS481 (IS) and the polymorphic pertussis toxin ptxA promoter region (PT). After amplification, the melting points of the amplicons were measured in an iCycler (Bio-Rad). A sample was interpreted as positive when the target(s) had a melting temperature within the species-specific acceptable range and a computed tomography ≤42. A sample was negative if none of the targets tested positive or a single positive target was not reproducible. Maternal nasal swabs were tested for those mothers whose infants tested positive for any Bordetella species Polymerase chain reaction was also performed for several viral infections (influenza, rhinovirus [RV], respiratory syncytial virus [RSV], bocavirus [BoV], human metapneumovirus, coronavirus, adenovirus, and parainfluenza [1] [2] [3] [4] ) as previously described [21] . Of 3693 women enrolled, 3646 infants were live born to 3621 women (Supplementary Figure 1 ). Infants were included in this analysis if they were followed for any length of the follow-up period (0 to 180 days); median total follow-up was 146 days per infant (Supplementary Figure 2) . The final dataset consists of 3483 infants, contributing 1280 infant-years of observation, with at least 1 follow-up visit during the first 6 months. This includes infants from the entire trial period, both before and after more pertussis-specific additions to the weekly symptom questionnaire. At baseline, data on household structure were gathered. At enrollment, women reported their literacy status (binary) and pregnancy history. The field workers identified their ethnicity into 2 broad groups (Pahadi, a group originating from the hills; or Madeshi, a group originating from north India) from names and observation. Women were categorized as nulliparous or multiparous. Responses to 25 questions about household construction, water and sanitation, and household assets were used to develop an index to measure the socioeconomic status of households. Binary variables for each of the 25 questions and a mean SES score were calculated for each household. Gestational age was measured using a woman's report of date of last menstrual period during pregnancy surveillance. Birth weight was collected as soon as possible after birth using a digital scale (Tanita model BD-585, precision to nearest 10 grams). Birth weights collected >72 hours after birth were excluded from the analysis. Small for gestational age (SGA) was calculated using the sex-specific 10th percentile cutoff described by Alexander et al [24] and the INTERGROWTH-21 standards [25] . Women were asked within how many hours of birth breastfeeding was initiated and binary breastfeeding categories were created (≤1 hour versus >1 hour postdelivery). Incidence was calculated as the number of pertussis cases per 1000 infant-years at risk. Poisson exact 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were constructed. Characteristics of infant pertussis cases were compared with nonpertussis cases using bivariate Poisson regression. Characteristics of all pertussis respiratory episodes were compared with nonpertussis respiratory episodes; t tests were used for continuous predictors and Fisher's exact tests were used for categorical associations due to the low number of pertussis episodes. All statistical analyses were conducted in Stata/SE 14.1. A total of 3483 infants had 4283 episodes of respiratory illness between May 18, 2011 and April 30, 2014. Thirty-nine percent (n = 1350) of infants experienced no respiratory episodes. The incidence of respiratory illness was 3.6 episodes per infant-year (95% CI, 3.5-3.7). Mean episode duration was 4.7 days (95% CI, 4.6-4.9). A total of 3930 (92%) episodes were matched to 1 or more pertussis-tested nasal swabs from 2026 infants (Supplementary Figure 1) . Seventeen cases of B pertussis were identified from 19 nasal swabs (nasal swabs were positive on 2 consecutive weeks for 2 infants). The incidence of PCR-confirmed B pertussis was 13.3 cases per 1000-infant years (95% CI, 7.7-21.3). Five cases of B parapertussis were detected with an incidence of 3.9 cases per 1000 infant-years (95% CI, 1.3-9.1). No cases of B bronchiseptica were identified. The average pertussis episode duration was 8 days (range, 2-33) ( Table 1 ). Mean age of onset of symptoms was 83 days (range, 19-137) (median, 80; interquartile range, 63-109). The most common symptoms were cough, difficulty breathing, and cough with vomit. None of the additional symptoms related to pertussis that were added in year 2 (cyanosis, apnea, cough with vomit, and whoop) resulted in collection of nasal swabs based solely on these additional symptoms. Pertussis episodes were statistically significantly more likely to include difficulty breathing, cough with vomit, and whoop compared with other respiratory illness. Six infants had at least 1 pertussis vaccination before pertussis disease onset (three <2 weeks and three >2 weeks before pertussis illness) with a mean of 18 days from vaccination to illness compared with 49 days for nonpertussis episodes (P = .03). Five infants received their first pertussis vaccination postpertussis disease onset, whereas 6 infants received no pertussis vaccination in the first 180 days. Three fourths of pertussis episodes were coinfected with at least 1 virus, with RV and BoV the most common. Cases of pertussis were more likely to be infected with BoV than respiratory cases due to causes other than pertussis. The majority of cases occurred between February 2013 and January 2014 (Figure 1) . No statistically significant differences between risk factors for pertussis and nonpertussis cases ( Table 2) were documented. Given the low number of pertussis cases, the lack of a statistical association is not evidence of nonassociation. No deaths occurred in infants who had pertussis. Of the 8 mothers of B pertussis-positive infants who had a nasal swab collected (14 nasal swabs total) during their own follow-up, none were positive for any pertussis species. The 5 B parapertussis cases were primarily male whose mothers were primiparous, literate, and Pahadi ethnicity (Supplementary Table 1 ). No mothers of infants who had B parapertussis had a nasal swab collected during follow-up. The average B parapertussis episode duration was 4 days (Supplementary Table 2 ). Mean age of onset of symptoms was 58 days with a range of 7-95 days. The most common symptoms were cough and wheeze. Rhinovirus and RSV were the only coinfections observed. All B parapertussis cases occurred between September 2011 and February 2012 ( Figure 1 ). A low incidence of pertussis and generally mild clinical presentation were found in infants <6 months in Nepal. To our knowledge, this represents one of the first population-based active surveillance of PCR-confirmed pertussis among young infants in Asia. Acellular pertussis vaccine trials conducted in the 1990s found the average pertussis incidence in the whole cell vaccine groups ranged from 1 to 37 cases per 1000 infantyears [26] . Our finding of 13 B pertussis cases per 1000 infantyears was on the lower end of this range. In the United States in 2014, the estimated pertussis incidence in infants less than 6 months was 2 cases per 1000 infant-years [27] , much lower than observed in our study; however, this passive surveillance system likely vastly underestimates pertussis incidence. Thus, there is a need for active surveillance data such as ours. Furthermore, given our highly sensitive case detection method, many of our pertussis cases would likely not have been detected in the previous acellular pertussis vaccine trials. More stringent respiratory symptom criteria would have lowered our incidence estimate even further. The low incidence was found in a population where pentavalent vaccine (Pentavac: Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis [Whole Cell], Hepatitis-B and Haemophilus Type b Conjugate Vaccine; Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd), scheduled for administration at 6, 10, and 14 weeks, is received with significant delays (7% of infants received all 3 recommended pertussis vaccines by 6 months) [22] . These data support the WHO's recommendation that countries using whole cell pertussis vaccine continue to do so given that the majority of outbreaks have been concentrated in countries using the acellular pertussis vaccine [2] . Recent studies suggest that protection from acellular pertussis vaccine is not as strong or long lasting as that conferred by the whole cell pertussis vaccine [6, 28] . Another contributing factor to the low pertussis incidence observed could be that surveillance was conducted during a period of low pertussis transmission. Pertussis is a cyclical disease, thought to peak every 2 to 4 years, and we may have captured the burden at a low circulation period [6] . We observed over 70% of our B pertussis cases over a 1-year period. This increase from earlier observation periods could indicate a temporary rise in pertussis consistent with its cyclical pattern or a true increase in the baseline burden. Previous research on pertussis seasonality has in different places and time periods demonstrated various periods of peak transmission or no discernable patterns [29, 30] . Although our data do not support a seasonal pattern, the numbers observed are too low to be conclusive. Pertussis symptom duration and severity were mild compared with the classic pertussis case presentation. Only 3 of the 17 cases fulfilled the WHO criteria, which requires a minimum of 2 weeks of cough, whoop, or posttussive vomiting [31] . Studies on pertussis in infants have generally been clinic-based, hospital-based, or in an outbreak, which therefore required a certain severity of illness for parents to recognize a need for medical attention [29, 30, 32] . These study designs and passive surveillance efforts therefore may have missed milder pertussis cases [33] . Our study, which required only 1 respiratory symptom for a nasal swab to be collected, had increased sensitivity to detect a range of pertussis case presentations. An alternative explanation for the mild cases seen could be an increase in the proportion of mild compared with severe pertussis cases in Nepal. Although cough, difficulty breathing, and cough with vomit were the most common symptoms, no symptom was present in all B pertussis cases. During an epidemic period in Washington state, among infants <1 year, who had a minimum of 14 days cough plus an additional symptom, 82% had posttussive emesis, 29% had apnea, 26% had whoop, and 42% had cyanosis [32] . A study of US neonates with pertussis showed the symptom prevalence to be 97% for cough, 91% for cyanosis, 58% for apnea, and 3% for fever [34] . Our study found lower or equal symptom prevalence with the exception of fever. Fever prevalence was higher in our study, similar to that found in Peru [29] . Although not statistically significant, infants with pertussis were more likely to have been born preterm, low birth weight, and SGA, and their mothers were more likely to be primiparous. These findings are similar to previous studies showing no difference in pertussis cases by sex [29, 35, 36] or crowding [35] but showing differences by birth weight [36] . Coinfections were common, consistent with findings from other hospital-based studies [33] . Codetection of B pertussis and B parapertussis with respiratory viruses may be due to asymptomatic pertussis carriage. The incidence of B parapertussis of 4 cases per 1000 person-years was comparable to that of 2 per 1000 person-years found in the Italian acellular pertussis vaccine trial in 1992-1993 [37] . The duration of illness was shorter for B parapertussis with a maximum duration of 6 days compared with a maximum of 33 days for B pertussis. A milder presentation is consistent with clinical knowledge of B parapertussis infection [37, 38] . Bordetella parapertussis cases occurred only during a 5-month period. There were several study design limitations. We cannot be certain whether the reported symptoms were caused by pertussis, another organism, or whether symptoms were related to 2 or more etiologic agents. We were unable to perform multivariate regression modeling for characteristics associated with pertussis disease and pertussis cases due to the small number of cases we detected. Infant respiratory symptoms were reported by parents, who may have missed signs that might have been observed by a healthcare worker. However, the criteria for collection of the nasal swab were broad and did not require sophisticated clinical skills. However, apnea and cyanosis may have been difficult for parents to identify. Although the criteria for specimen collection changed in year 2, no infant experienced a pertussis-specific symptom in isolation without also having one of the originally specified respiratory symptoms. These data support our assumption that we were unlikely to have missed pertussis cases in year 1 with our less sensitive respiratory symptom criteria. Nasal swabs were collected in the mid-nasal region for influenza virus detection, which may have lowered the sensitivity of pertussis detection. In a field site, the acceptability of an additional nasopharyngeal swab would likely have increased the participant refusal rate. This would have decreased the generalizability of our results to the entire population. Although nasopharyngeal swabs or nasopharyngeal aspirates are the recommended specimen collection method [39] , the nasopharyngeal region was established as the collection area of choice when the diagnostic measure was culture, which has low sensitivity. Recent data demonstrated the comparability of using mid-nasal versus nasopharyngeal swabs in PCR pertussis detection [40] . Strengths of the study included being a population-based, prospective study, with very low refusal rates. Risk factors, clinical symptoms, and coinfections were prospectively identified without the potential bias that may occur when these data are collected retrospectively or in clinical settings. The community-based design allows generalizability of these results to the entire population and not just those seeking care at a health facility or in an outbreak situation. The Sarlahi District is located in the Terai region where the majority of Nepalese reside, and it has similar demographics to the entire population of Nepal [41] . Sarlahi's location near sea level and on the border with India supports the generalizability of these results to many populations living on the Indian subcontinent. The weekly active surveillance with sensitive criteria for pertussis testing was able to detect mild and atypical pertussis cases, which may have been missed by previous traditional surveillance. The multitarget PCR method allowed highly sensitive and specific detection of 2 additional Bordetella species beyond the primary B pertussis target. We observed a low incidence of pertussis in infants in a whole cell vaccine environment. Pertussis cases were generally milder than expected compared with traditional pertussis clinical definitions. These data support clinicians considering pertussis in their differential diagnosis of infants with mild respiratory symptoms. Policymakers in Nepal will need to weigh the benefit of an additional prenatal pertussis vaccine or a switch to acellular primary pertussis vaccine with the low burden of pertussis in infants less than 6 months. Our study demonstrated that mid-nasal swabs were able to detect pertussis using a sensitive multitarget PCR. The less invasive mid-nasal nasal swab is an attractive alternative for pertussis nasal swab collection, and further research is needed to compare this collection site with nasopharyngeal swabs. In the future, this method may enhance population-based surveillance efforts.

What kind of pertussis vaccine is used in middle and high income countries?

Viral Respiratory Tract Infections in Adult Patients Attending Outpatient and Emergency Departments, Taiwan, 2012–2013: A PCR/Electrospray Ionization Mass Spectrometry Study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4635751/ SHA: ef6361c7bffb9e92f397d7004bfb3a9c804d7c6a Authors: Shih, Hsin-I; Wang, Hsuan-Chen; Su, Ih-Jen; Hsu, Hsiang-Chin; Wang, Jen-Ren; Sun, Hsiao Fang Sunny; Chou, Chien-Hsuan; Ko, Wen-Chien; Hsieh, Ming-I; Wu, Chi-Jung Date: 2015-09-25 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000001545 License: cc-by Abstract: Viral etiologies of respiratory tract infections (RTIs) have been less studied in adult than in pediatric populations. Furthermore, the ability of PCR/electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (PCR/ESI-MS) to detect enteroviruses and rhinoviruses in respiratory samples has not been well evaluated. We sought to use PCR/ESI-MS to comprehensively investigate the viral epidemiology of adult RTIs, including testing for rhinoviruses and enteroviruses. Nasopharyngeal or throat swabs from 267 adults with acute RTIs (212 upper RTIs and 55 lower RTIs) who visited a local clinic or the outpatient or emergency departments of a medical center in Taiwan between October 2012 and June 2013 were tested for respiratory viruses by both virus isolation and PCR/ESI-MS. Throat swabs from 15 patients with bacterial infections and 27 individuals without active infections were included as control samples. Respiratory viruses were found in 23.6%, 47.2%, and 47.9% of the 267 cases by virus isolation, PCR/ESI-MS, and both methods, respectively. When both methods were used, the influenza A virus (24.3%) and rhinoviruses (9.4%) were the most frequently identified viruses, whereas human coronaviruses, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), enteroviruses, adenoviruses, respiratory syncytial virus, and parainfluenza viruses were identified in small proportions of cases (<5% of cases for each type of virus). Coinfection was observed in 4.1% of cases. In the control group, only 1 (2.4%) sample tested positive for a respiratory virus by PCR/ESI-MS. Patients who were undergoing steroid treatment, had an active malignancy, or suffered from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were at risk for rhinovirus, hMPV, or parainfluenza infections, respectively. Overall, immunocompromised patients, patients with COPD, and patients receiving dialysis were at risk for noninfluenza respiratory virus infection. Rhinoviruses (12.7%), influenza A virus (10.9%), and parainfluenza viruses (7.3%) were the most common viruses involved in the 55 cases of lower RTIs. The factors of parainfluenza infection, old age, and immunosuppression were independently associated with lower RTIs. In conclusion, PCR/ESI-MS improved the diagnostic yield for viral RTIs. Non-influenza respiratory virus infections were associated with patients with comorbidities and with lower RTIs. Additional studies that delineate the clinical need for including non-influenza respiratory viruses in the diagnostic work-up in these populations are warranted. Text: V iral respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in humans occur throughout the year and represent a major cause of clinical visits worldwide. In the past, the viral causes of RTIs were largely unknown, primarily due to the insensitivity of culturebased methods for the detection of viruses or to the narrow spectrum of viral detection using singleplex nucleic acid tests (NATs). Recently, the development of multiplex respiratory NATs has allowed for the simultaneous, rapid, and sensitive detection of multiple viruses, which facilitates comprehensive studies regarding the epidemiology of viral RTIs. Currently, the viral epidemiology of RTIs has been studied more extensively among pediatric populations compared with adult populations throughout the world. 1 Similarly, most studies describing the viral etiology of respiratory illness in Taiwan, a subtropical country in Eastern Asia, were limited to pediatric populations. [2] [3] [4] Thus, studies among adult patients are lacking, particularly regarding infections due to fastidious or newly identified viruses, such as human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and human coronavirus (hCoV). Overlapping clinical presentations shared by different respiratory viruses make differential diagnoses difficult to perform based solely on the clinical parameters. 5 Moreover, effective antiviral agents are currently restricted to influenza virus infections. Hence, a better understanding of the epidemiology of adult viral RTIs would aid the future design of diagnostic strategies, infection control, and patient management. Among the various multiplex NATs, multilocus polymerase chain reaction coupled with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (PCR/ESI-MS) can simultaneously identify and subtype multiple respiratory viruses. [6] [7] [8] [9] Despite the diagnostic potential, the ability of PCR/ESI-MS to detect human enterovirus and rhinovirus in respiratory samples from patients with RTIs has not been well evaluated. Previous PCR/ESI-MS studies in patients with RTIs did not include these 2 viruses in the diagnostic panels. [6] [7] [8] [9] Here, we expanded upon these previous studies utilizing PCR/ESI-MS for respiratory virus detection. We aimed to comprehensively investigate the epidemiology of adult viral RTIs using PCR/ESI-MS and compare the diagnostic performance between PCR/ESI-MS and conventional culture methods for identifying multiple, clinically relevant, respiratory viruses, including enterovirus and rhinovirus. To conduct a comprehensive epidemiologic study that included patients with and without comorbidity, we enrolled adults (of at least 18 yr of age) with acute RTIs within 7 days of onset who were treated at a local outpatient clinic of YC hospital or the outpatient or emergency departments of National Cheng-Kung University Hospital (NCKUH), a university-affiliated medical center in southern Taiwan, between October 2012 and June 2013. Acute RTI was defined as the simultaneous occurrence of at least 1 respiratory symptom or sign (new or worsening cough, sputum production, sore throat, nasal congestion, rhinorrhea, dyspnea, wheezing, or injected tonsils) and at least 1 of the following symptoms: fever, chills, and cough. Lower RTI (LRTI) was defined as the presence of acute RTI and a new infiltrate on chest radiograph. For patients experiencing more than 1 episode of RTI, the most recent episode was counted as separate only if the patient fully recovered from the previous episode and there was a least a 3-week interval between the onset of the 2 episodes. Clinical, laboratory, and radiological data and the contact history of each patient were retrieved. Comorbidities were assessed in all patients based on the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). 10 Steroid use was defined as the receipt of corticosteroid treatment (10 mg prednisolone or an equivalent daily dosage) for more than 2 weeks. An immunocompromised state was diagnosed if the patients met one of the following conditions: corticosteroid treatment, solid organ or hematopoietic stem cell recipient, or chemotherapy for an underlying malignancy during the past 6 months. Nasopharyngeal or throat swabs were obtained from all patients and collected in transport medium, as previously described. 11 for virus detection and identification by both virus isolation and PCR/ESI-MS. Clinical specimens were stored at 48C and transported to the study sites within 24 hours of collection. Throat swabs from 42 cases without respiratory infections during the month prior to enrollment were included as control samples for PCR/ESI-MS analysis, including 15 patients with exclusively bacterial infections (documented cases of bacteremia or urinary tract infection) who were admitted to NCKUH and 27 individuals without active infections. These subjects without active infections included 10 patients with stable chronic diseases followed up in NCKUH clinics and 17 healthy individuals whose medical information was collected using a clinical questionnaire. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board (B-ER-101-031) of the study hospital, and all patients provided informed consent. Respiratory specimens were inoculated onto appropriate tissue cultures (Madin-Darby canine kidney, MRC-5, A549, and rhabdomyosarcoma) to isolate human influenza virus, parainfluenza virus, genus Enterovirus, cytomegalovirus (CMV), adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), herpes simplex viruses 1 and 2 (HSV-1 and -2), and varicella zoster virus (VZV). The isolation and identification of viruses were performed using a previously described method 11 and enteroviruses were identified by a immunofluorescence assay using a Chemicon Pan EV mix that cross-reacts with rhinovirus (Light Diagnostics, Chemicon [Millipore], MA). 11, 12 Virus Detection and Identification by PCR/ESI-MS Total nucleic acids were extracted from 700 mL of swab samples using a nucleic acid autoextractor (MagNA Pure Compact Instrument, Mannheim, Germany), and the eluate was stored at À808C until analysis. During the analyses, the extracted nucleic acids were added to both a PLEX-ID Respiratory Virus assay plate and a PLEX-ID Broad Viral I assay plate (PLEX-ID, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, Illinois). The PLEX-ID Respiratory Virus assay detects human adenovirus, hCoV, hMPV, influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1 to 3, and RSV, 6 whereas the PLEX-ID Broad Viral I assay detects human adenovirus, enterovirus, rhinovirus, BK and JC polyomavirus, parvovirus B19, HSV-1 and -2, VZV, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), CMV, and human herpesvirus (HHV)-8. 13, 14 In this study, respiratory viruses refer to adenovirus, hCoV, hMPV, influenza, parainfluenza, RSV, enterovirus, and rhinovirus. Nucleic acid amplification and analyses of PCR products were conducted using the PCR/ESI-MS platform (PLEX-ID, Abbott Laboratories) following the manufacturer's instructions, with test turnaround time from sample to result within 6 to 8 hours. 8, 13 The PCR/ESI-MS analyses included automated PCR desalting, ESI-MS signal acquisition, spectral analysis, and data reporting. Organism identification was based on the total mass and base compositions of the PCR amplicons compared with those in the molecular signature database established by the PLEX-ID manufacturer. 6, 8, 13, 14 Samples in which PCR/ESI-MS results disagreed with culture results at the species level were reexamined by a second molecular method. For enteroviruses, rhinovirus was differentiated from enterovirus using a conventional PCR sequencing analysis with the previously described primers (Rhinovirus s1 and as) and a BLAST search. 15 All analyses were performed with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 17.0 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL). Continuous variables were expressed as mean values AE standard deviations and were compared using the analysis of variance test. Categorical variables were compared using the Fisher exact test or x 2 test. All biologically plausible variables with a P value 0.10 in the univariate analysis were considered for inclusion in the logistic regression model for the multivariate analysis. A P value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant, and all tests were 2-tailed. During the 9-month study period, a total of 267 episodes of acute RTIs from 263 patients were recorded, including 96 episodes at a local clinic and 171 episodes at NCKUH (19 outpatient and 152 in the emergency departments). For convenience, each episode was counted as 1 case. Overall, 123 (46.1%) cases were male patients, and 152 (56.9%), 60 (22.5%), and 55 (20.6%) patients were 18 to 39, 40 to 59, and !60 years of age, respectively. Two-hundred and twelve (79.4%) patients presented with upper RTIs (URTIs), and 55 (20.6%) cases presented with LRTIs. Compared with patients attending the local clinic, patients attending the medical care center were older and had more comorbidities ( Table 1 ). The detailed demographic data of the 267 RTI cases and 42 control cases are presented in Table 1 . All 267 respiratory samples from each RTI case were examined for viruses by both virus isolation and PCR/ESI-MS, and the results are presented in Table 2 . For virus isolation, respiratory viruses were detected in 63 (23.6%) cases, including influenza A (48 cases, 18.0%), enterovirus (13, 4.9%), and parainfluenza virus (2, 0.7%), and no coinfection was detected. Virus isolation identified additional parainfluenza type 3 and enterovirus infections that were not found by PCR/ESI-MS in 2 samples. By PCR/ESI-MS, respiratory viruses were detected in 126 cases (47.2%). Influenza A (65 cases, 24.3%) was the most frequently identified virus, among which 36 (13.5%) cases were subtyped as pandemic H1N1/09 virus, 28 (10.5%) cases as seasonal H3N2 virus, and 1 case as influenza A matching both pandemic H1N1and seasonal H3N2. Genus Enterovirus (34, 12.7%) was the second-most frequently detected virus, including rhinovirus (25, 9 .4%), enterovirus (8, 3.0%), and 1 culturenegative case matching for both rhinovirus and enterovirus. hCoV (13, 4 .9%), hMPV (10, 3.7%), adenovirus (6, 2.2%), RSV (6, 2.2%), and parainfluenza (4, 1.5%) were detected in small proportions of cases. Simultaneous detection of more than 1 respiratory virus was observed in 11 (4.1%) patients, and rhinovirus (5 cases) was most likely to be codetected with another respiratory virus ( Table 2 ). Of note, 4 cultivated viruses identified as enterovirus because of reactivity with the Chemicon Pan EV mix were characterized as rhinovirus by PCR/ESI-MS. Further PCR-sequencing analysis of the 4 clinical specimens confirmed the existence of rhinoviruses but not enteroviruses. PCR/ESI-MS identified additional respiratory viruses in 65 culture-negative samples, mostly rhinovirus (21 samples), and a second respiratory virus in 3 culture-positive influenza A samples. Overall, the positive detection rates for any respiratory virus by culture, PCR/ESI-MS, and both methods were 23.6%, 47.2%, and 47.9% (128/267), respectively. Of 61 specimens positive by both methods, PCR/ESI-MS and culture methods reached levels of agreement of 100% at the species level for influenza and parainfluenza and 100% at the genus level for the genus Enterovirus. In the control group, only 1 (2.4%) healthy individual tested positive for a respiratory virus (rhinovirus) by PCR/ESI-MS. With respect to herpesviruses, PCR/ESI-MS identified EBV, HSV-1, CMV, and VZV in 128 (47.9%), 25 (9.4%), 7 (2.6%), and 2 (0.7%) samples from RTI cases, with similar detection rates observed in the control group. There was no detection of polyomavirus, parvovirus B19, HSV-2, or HHV-8 virus in samples from cases with RTIs or the control group. Cases that tested positive for any respiratory virus either by culture or by PCR/ESI-MS were analyzed. The positive detection rates declined with age: 55.3%, 41.7%, and 34.5% in the 18-39, 40-59, and !60-year-old groups, respectively (P ¼ 0.02) ( Figure 1A) . A higher positivity rate was observed in patients with URTIs than that in patients with LRTIs (50.5% vs. 38.2%, P ¼ 0.10) ( Table 3 and Figure 1B ). There were similar distributions of respiratory viruses in cases from the local clinical and the medical center (Table 2) , and between patients from the 3 age groups ( Figure 1A ). Of 128 cases with identifiable respiratory viruses, non-influenza virus infection was more common in patients with LRTIs than those with URTIs (81.0% [17/21] vs. 48.6% [52/107], P ¼ 0.007). Rhinovirus (12.7%), influenza A (10.9%), and parainfluenza (7.3%) were the 3 leading respiratory viruses involved in 55 cases of LRTIs, and parainfluenza was more frequently observed in the LRTI group than in the URTI group (Table 3 and Figure 1B ). There was no seasonal variation in any individual respiratory virus over the 9-month period. Of 128 patients with identifiable respiratory viruses, univariate analysis revealed that patients with 1 of the following conditions were more likely to have non-influenza respiratory virus infections: immunocompromised state, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic renal failure receiving dialysis (OR 5.4, 95% CI 1.2-25.5, P ¼ 0.02). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that steroid use was an independent risk factor for rhinovirus infection (OR 15.3, 95% CI 1.5-154.7, P ¼ 0.02), active malignancy was an independent risk factor for hMPV infection (OR 29.3, 95% CI 2.4-358.1, P ¼ 0.008), and COPD was an independent risk factor for parainfluenza infection (OR 229.2, 95% CI 10.5-5020.8, While comparing the URTI and LRTI groups, factors found to be associated with LRTI by univariate analysis included old age (!60 years), a high comorbidity index, congestive heart failure, COPD, malignancy, immunocompromised state, and detection of parainfluenza or EBV, whereas detection of influenza A was less frequently associated with LRTI. Codetection of respiratory virus was not associated with the development of LRTI. By multivariate analysis, only old age, immunocompromised state, and detection of parainfluenza remained 3 independent factors associated with LRTI (Table 3) . Among the 117 episodes of single respiratory virus infections, arthralgia was more frequently observed in influenza A infections than in non-influenza infections (66.1% [39/59] vs. 46.6% [27/58], P ¼ 0.033); for these 2 types of infections, the other examined symptoms, including sore throat, rhinorrhea, cough, purulent sputum, wheezing, dyspnea, and headache, were detected at similar frequencies. Of 55 cases of LRTIs, coinfection with bacterial pathogens by sputum culture or blood culture was found in 3 (8.8%) of 34 patients who tested positive for respiratory viruses and in 2 (9.5%) of 21 patients who tested negative for respiratory viruses. Four of 6 cases of influenza A LRTI had received oseltamivir. Two patients died of pneumonia and the worsening of an underlying malignancy; 1 of these patients tested positive for hMPV, and the other patient tested negative for a respiratory virus. Four Our study of the viral epidemiology of adult acute RTI using PCR/ESI-MS technology has 3 major advantages. First, we expanded on previous studies utilizing PCR/ESI-MS for respiratory virus detection. The PLEX-ID Broad Viral I assay, which targets enterovirus, rhinovirus, herpesviruses, JC and BK polyomaviruses, and parvovirus B19, and the PLEX-ID Respiratory Virus assay tests were both adopted for the detection of multiple clinically relevant respiratory viruses. Second, 2 control groups (patients with exclusively bacterial infections and individuals without active infections) were enrolled to eliminate false-positive artifacts of NATs and estimate the prevalence of detectable asymptomatic carriers of respiratory viruses. Third, this study enrolled immunocompetent and immunocompromised patients visiting a local clinic or a medical center who presented with an URTI or LRTI, which reflects the true viral epidemiology of adult RTIs. By supplementing the conventional culture method with PCR/ESI-MS, a 2-fold increase in the respiratory virus detection rate was achieved, from 23.6% by culture alone to 47.9% by a combination of both methods. Diagnostic gain was observed for both culturable viruses, especially rhinovirus, and fastidious viruses. Although we did not compare an alternative NAT due to sample volume limitations, it has been reported that PCR/ ESI-MS has a high sensitivity (92.9-100%) and specificity (99-100%) for variable respiratory virus detection relative to immunologic and PCR-based methods as gold standard assays, with the exception of parainfluenza (sensitivity 63.4%). 6 Coincidentally, we found that parainfluenza type 3 was 1 of only 2 viruses that were not detected by PCR/ESI-MS. The potential causes contributing to the lower detection rate for parainfluenza remain to be explored. The positive detection rate (47.2%) for respiratory viruses by PCR/ESI-MS in the present study was similar to those of parallel adult surveillance programs using NATs (43.2-57%). 5,16-18 but notably higher than an earlier study using the Ibis T5000 biosensor system (the prototype of PCR-ESI/ MS) using the respiratory virus surveillance II kit (35.9%), likely because the kit was not designed for the detection of enterovirus and rhinovirus. 8 Enterovirus and rhinovirus, both members of the Enterovirus genus, contributed to 13.1% of RTI cases in our study and 9.8-17.8% of adult cases in other studies. 5, 16, 17 Considering their prevalence, enterovirus and rhinovirus should be included in the diagnostic panels of respiratory viruses if comprehensive viral detection is indicated. The codetection rate (4.1%) was within the range of 2.0-7.2% that has been reported elsewhere. 5, 16, 17 and rhinovirus was the virus most frequently involved in coinfections, probably due to its high prevalence throughout the year. 18 Influenza A and rhinovirus were the 2 most frequently detected respiratory viruses, whereas hCoV, hMPV, enterovirus, adenovirus, RSV, and parainfluenza were detected in small proportions of cases. This finding is similar to the viral epidemiology of adult RTIs observed by other study groups. 5, 16, 17 The similar distributions of viruses between cases from a local clinic and a medical center and between patients of the 3 age groups suggest that individuals of all age groups are susceptible to multiple respiratory viruses that simultaneously circulate in the community. A lower positive detection rate was observed in the elderly population, probably because older adult patients shed lower titers of viruses. 19 However, the roles of EBV, HSV-1, and CMV in adult RTIs remain incompletely 20 Moreover, the univariate association between EBV and LRTIs observed in this study may have been caused by the confounding factor of age, particularly given that old age was identified as an independent factor for EBV detection (data not shown). The lack of detection of BK and JC polyomavirus or parvovirus B19 implies that these viruses play a minor role in adult RTIs and that oropharyngeal cells are not involved in BK and JC polyomavirus persistence. 21 Furthermore, the low positive detection rate for respiratory viruses in the control group suggests a low possibility of false-positive artifacts in PCR/ESI-MS or a lower rate of asymptomatic colonization of respiratory viruses. In addition to the advantage of sensitive detection, PCR/ ESI-MS possesses the capability of simultaneous subtype identification of respiratory viruses. 22 In this study, influenza A viruses were subtyped as pandemic H1N1 influenza A and seasonal H3N2 influenza. In Europe, both viruses cocirculated in the community in the 2012-2013 influenza season. 23 In the genus Enterovirus, acid-labile rhinovirus can be differentiated from enterovirus using an acid lability test. 24 while PCR/ESI-MS can rapidly differentiate the 2 species in a single test, as demonstrated in our study. The 13 hCoVs were subtyped as hCoV-OC43, -229E, and -HKU1, which was further validated by conventional PCR-sequencing assays (data not shown). The newly identified HCoV-NL63 was not detected during the study period, and a low detection rate (<1%) was reported in China. 16 Our understanding of the roles of non-influenza respiratory viruses in patients with comorbidities or LRTIs has been strengthened in our study. Patients who were undergoing steroid treatment, had an active malignancy, or suffered from COPD were at risk for rhinovirus, hMPV, or parainfluenza infections, respectively. Overall, immunocompromised patients, those with COPD, and patients receiving dialysis were at risk for non-influenza respiratory virus infection. Non-influenza virus infections were also more frequently involved in LRTIs than in URTIs. Among LRTIs, rhinovirus and parainfluenza were ranked as the first-and third-most common pathogens, respectively, and parainfluenza was an independent factor associated with LRTIs, a finding consistent with prior reports that both viruses are significant causes of LRTIs. 18, [25] [26] [27] On the other hand, despite an increasing role of non-influenza respiratory viruses, currently available antiviral agents and vaccines primarily target influenza infection. Although viral RTI is a self-limited illness, as observed in the majority of our patients with LRTIs who recovered from illness without the aid of antiviral agents, a definite etiological diagnosis can help to reduce the unwarranted use of anti-influenza agents or antimicrobials and/or unnecessary hospitalizations, and provide useful information for the control of RTIs. However, we observed that clinical differentiation of influenza infection from other respiratory virus infections is difficult due to overlapping symptoms, as described previously. 5 Collectively, the association of non-influenza virus infection with patients with comorbidities or LRTIs reported here suggests that a complete respiratory viral panel would be appropriate in the diagnostic work-up for RTIs in these populations. The additional costs incurred by the use of a complete panel of PCR/ESI-MS-based assessments or other molecular tests would likely be offset by the accompanying reductions in unnecessary antimicrobial therapy and/or hospitalization. 18 Our study has some limitations. First, parainfluenza type 4 and 3 newly identified respiratory viruses, human bocavirus, human polyomavirus KI and WU polyomavirus were not included in the panels. [28] [29] [30] [31] and their roles in adult RTIs in Taiwan are unclear. Second, although certain risk factors for specific virus infections, such as hMPV or parainfluenza infections, have been identified, these associations should be re-examined in additional largescale clinical studies, and the clinical impact and underlying mechanisms of these associations should be explored. Similarly, more control cases may be needed to better estimate the prevalence of asymptomatic carriers of respiratory viruses. Third, only 3 seasons were covered, and the seasonality of viral respiratory infections could not be demonstrated. In conclusion, compared with virus isolation, PCR/ESI-MS produced a greater diagnostic yield for viral RTIs, with a low possibility of false-positive artifacts. Non-influenza respiratory virus infection was significantly associated with patients with comorbidities and with LRTIs. Additional studies to delineate the clinical need for and economic benefits of including non-influenza respiratory viruses in the diagnostic work-up in these populations are warranted.

How many patients had acute RTIs?

Pre-existing immunity against vaccine vectors – friend or foe? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3542731/ SHA: f5bdf18567bb3760e1ce05008135f0270badbd5c Authors: Saxena, Manvendra; Van, Thi Thu Hao; Baird, Fiona J.; Coloe, Peter J.; Smooker, Peter M. Date: 2013-01-27 DOI: 10.1099/mic.0.049601-0 License: cc-by Abstract: Over the last century, the successful attenuation of multiple bacterial and viral pathogens has led to an effective, robust and safe form of vaccination. Recently, these vaccines have been evaluated as delivery vectors for heterologous antigens, as a means of simultaneous vaccination against two pathogens. The general consensus from published studies is that these vaccine vectors have the potential to be both safe and efficacious. However, some of the commonly employed vectors, for example Salmonella and adenovirus, often have pre-existing immune responses in the host and this has the potential to modify the subsequent immune response to a vectored antigen. This review examines the literature on this topic, and concludes that for bacterial vectors there can in fact, in some cases, be an enhancement in immunogenicity, typically humoral, while for viral vectors pre-existing immunity is a hindrance for subsequent induction of cell-mediated responses. Text: In the fields of medicine and veterinary medicine, there are numerous live, attenuated bacterial and viral vaccines in use today worldwide. The safety and efficacy of such vaccines is well established and allows further development as vector systems to deliver antigen originating from other pathogens. Various attenuated bacteria, including Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, lactic acid bacteria (LAB), specifically Lactococcus lactis, Mycobacterium, Listeria, Shigella and Salmonella, have been tested for the targeted delivery of heterologous antigens of bacterial, viral and parasitic origin into a variety of animal hosts (Bahey-El-Din et al., 2010; Innocentin et al., 2009; Johnson et al., 2011; Tobias et al., 2008 Tobias et al., , 2010 Tobias & Svennerholm, 2012) . Bacteria such as E. coli and lactic acid bacteria have recently gained favour, as E. coli is a commensal and lactic acid bacteria are present in most fermented food items and are therefore naturally present in the host. They are also a much safer option than traditional attenuated vaccines in children and immunecompromised people. As this review discusses the effects of pre-existing immune responses to attenuated vaccines, further discussion of LAB and E. coli as potential vectors will not be undertaken; however, the reader is directed to several interesting reviews (Bermú dez-Humarán et al., 2011; Wells & Mercenier, 2008) . Intracellular bacteria from the genera Mycobacterium (Guleria et al., 1996) , Listeria (Gentschev et al., 2001) , Shigella (Levine et al., 1997) and Salmonella (Dougan et al., 1987) are considered to be suitable candidates for the delivery of vaccine antigens due to their capability to induce robust T cell immune responses (Alderton et al., 1991; Lo et al., 1999; Mastroeni et al., 2001; Mittrücker & Kaufmann, 2000; Nauciel, 1990) . Salmonella is one genus that has been well examined as a vector, building on the extensive research available on the micro-organism's physiology and pathogenesis (Basso et al., 2000; Killeen & DiRita, 2000; Sirard et al., 1999; Ward et al., 1999) . There exist several commercial vaccines that are used as anti-Salmonella vaccines in humans and animals (e.g. Ty21a for typhoid fever in humans, several Salmonella serovars against salmonellosis in chickens and other animals). The general strategy for vectoring heterologous antigen is depicted in Fig. 1 . The first clinical trial of a recombinant, which was conducted over 20 years ago using an attenuated Salmonella as a delivery vector, led to the widespread testing of this bacterium as a mucosal delivery system for antigens from non-Salmonella pathogens (Dougan et al., 1987) . These studies have demonstrated the utility of live bacteria to deliver expressed antigens and DNA vaccines to the host immune system (Atkins et al., 2006; Husseiny & Hensel, 2008; Jiang et al., 2004; Kirby et al., 2004) . Since then several other intracellular bacterial vectors have been successfully tested for their capability to deliver a variety of antigens from various pathogens, as well as vaccination against cancer. One genus which has been widely tested as vector is Listeria. Listeria species are Gram-positive intracellular food-borne pathogens. The advantages of Listeria are that it can invade a variety of cells, including antigen presenting cells (APCs). After invading the host cell, Listeria resides inside the phagosome; however, it can escape the phagosome with the help of listeriolysin O (LLO; Hly) and reside in the cytoplasm of the cells, thereby efficiently presenting antigen to both CD8 and CD4 T cells (Cossart & Mengaud, 1989; Kaufmann, 1993; Pamer et al., 1997) . Several studies have demonstrated the effectiveness and ease of using Listeria monocytogenes to deliver heterologous vaccine antigens and DNA vaccines Jensen et al., 1997; Johnson et al., 2011; Peters et al., 2003; Shen et al., 1995; Yin et al., 2011) . Similarly, various viral vectors have been successfully tested for their capability to deliver heterologous vaccine antigens, and this generally results in the induction of strong CTL immune responses. In the veterinary field, there are numerous viral vector vaccines that are currently licensed for use in livestock and domesticated animals. These recombinant vaccines are based on both DNA viruses (such as fowlpox virus-based vaccines which target avian influenza virus and fowlpox virus, or vaccinia virusbased vectors against the rabies virus in wildlife) and RNA viruses [such as Newcastle disease virus-based vaccines to be used in poultry or yellow fever virus (YFV)-based vaccines to be used in horses against West Nile virus] (Draper & Heeney, 2010) . Based on the safety record in the veterinary field, many viruses have been studied for human use as a vector in vaccine development (Beukema et al., 2006; Esteban, 2009; Schirrmacher & Fournier, 2009; Stoyanov et al., 2010; Weli & Tryland, 2011) . Amongst them, YFV (YF-17D strain) was the first to be licensed for use in humans, where the cDNAs encoding the envelope proteins of YFV were replaced with the corresponding genes of an attenuated Japanese encephalitis virus strain, SA14-14-2 (Appaiahgari & Vrati, 2010; Rollier et al., 2011) . Poxviruses are also studied extensively as candidate vectors for human use, among which attenuated derivatives of vaccinia virus [such as modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) and New York attenuated vaccinia virus NYVAC strains] are the most promising vectors (Esteban, 2009; Gó mez et al., 2008; Rimmelzwaan & Sutter, 2009 ). They are ideal candidate vectors due to their large DNA-packing capacity and their thermal and genetic stability (Minke et al., 2004) . The NYVAC vector has been shown to induce CD4 + T cell-dominant responses, and MVA induces both CD4 + and CD8 + T cell responses (Mooij et al., 2008) . The adenovirus (Ad) vector is another of the most widely evaluated vectors to date to express heterologous antigens, due to ease of production, safety profile, genetic stability, the ease of DNA genome manipulation, and the ability to stimulate both innate and adaptive immune responses and induce both T and B cell responses (Alexander et al., 2012; Fitzgerald et al., 2003; Gabitzsch & Jones, 2011; Lasaro & Ertl, 2009; Vemula & Mittal, 2010; Weyer et al., 2009) . They have been extensively examined as a delivery vector in several preclinical and clinical studies for infectious diseases such as anthrax, hepatitis B, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1, influenza, measles, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), malaria and tuberculosis M. Saxena and others (Chengalvala et al., 1994; Gao et al., 2006; Hashimoto et al., 2005; Hsu et al., 1992; Limbach & Richie, 2009; Radosevic et al., 2007; Shiver et al., 2002) . However, before vectored vaccines can be used in the human population they need to satisfy several important criteria. Safety is a major concern, as even a low level of toxicity is unacceptable (of course the minor discomfort that accompanies many vaccinations is normal). Secondly, a vaccine should be inexpensive, so that it can be administered to a large population at minimal cost, and this is particularly important in resource-poor countries (Killeen & DiRita, 2000) . Similar constraints apply to veterinary vaccines, with cost often an even more important consideration. Finally, long-lasting cellular and (where appropriate) humoral immune responses to the vectored antigen must be induced following administration of these vaccines, preferably with a single dose (Atkins et al., 2006) . As some of the vectors in use will have been seen by the host immune system prior to vaccination, whether the presence of pre-existing immune responses is detrimental for the further development of a vector-based vaccine scheme, or can augment responses to the vectored antigen, needs to be considered in detail. This is the subject of this review. In discussing the possible effects on pre-existing immunity, the natural immunity to the vector needs to be considered. Therefore, considering a vector such as Salmonella, if a host has previously been infected there will exist robust B and T memory responses, and as such, when a vaccination is delivered, an anamnestic response to the Salmonella antigens will be induced (while the response to the vectored antigen will be a primary response). This will theoretically reduce the exposure of the heterologous antigen to the immune system, as the vector is rapidly cleared. Surprisingly, as will be seen in some of the examples given below, this can have results that differ depending on the magnitude of the response to the vectored antigen. Similarly, for virally vectored antigens, the existence of pre-existing immunity to the vector (particularly neutralizing antibody) will restrict delivery of the virus into cells, thereby effectively reducing the dose of the vectored antigen. Again, this might be expected to result in a reduction in the antigenicity of the vectored antigen. In the case of bacterial vectors, the effect of pre-existing immune responses has only been tested using Salmonella serovars and Listeria spp. Concern that prior immunological experience of the host with either the homologous Salmonella vector strain or a related strain might compromise its ability to deliver heterologous vaccine antigen was first raised in 1987 (Dougan et al., 1987) . Bao and Clements subsequently reported experimental evidence of the consequences of prior exposure of animals to the vector strain (Bao & Clements, 1991) . This work showed that both serum and mucosal antibody responses against the foreign antigen were in fact upregulated in animals with prior exposure to the vector strain. Whittle & Verma (1997) reported similar findings. Mice immunized via the intra-peritoneal route with a Salmonella dublin aroA mutant expressing heterologous antigen after being exposed to the same vector showed a higher immune response to the vectored antigen in comparison to mice without any immunological memory against the vector. Subsequently, several studies have been conducted to examine the effect of pre-existing immunity in the host against Salmonella. These results are summarized in Table 1 . The various reports are contradictory in their findings and seem to paint a rather confusing picture. Some studies concluded that pre-existing immunity against the Salmonella vector leads to stronger immune responses against the delivered antigen (Bao & Clements, 1991; Jespersgaard et al., 2001; Kohler et al., 2000a, b; Metzger et al., 2004; Saxena et al., 2009; Sevil Domènech et al., 2008; Whittle & Verma, 1997) , with others considering pre-existing immunity to be a limiting factor in the long-term use of Salmonella as an efficient vector for antigen delivery (Attridge et al., 1997; Gahan et al., 2008; Roberts et al., 1999; Sevil Domènech et al., 2007; Vindurampulle & Attridge, 2003a, b) . A slight majority of the studies listed in Table 1 (10 versus eight) indicate the upregulation of immune responses after animals have been exposed to either homologous or related strains before the delivery of heterologous antigen using a Salmonella vector. A study by Metzger and co-workers on human volunteers using Salmonella Typhi as a vector suggested that there was no change in the T cell immune response against the heterologous antigen in human volunteers who were exposed to empty vector in comparison with volunteers who were immunologically naive of the vector strain (Metzger et al., 2004) . In these subjects, humoral responses were moderately elevated in preexposed individuals. Similarly, Saxena et al. (2009) indicated higher humoral and T cell responses in mice pre-exposed to homologous or heterologous Salmonella strains. The interleukin 4 (IL4) response was significantly higher when the animal host was exposed to the homologous strain, whereas pre-exposure to a related species did not have such an impact on IL4 responses. Conversely interferon (IFN)-c responses were higher, irrespective of the strain to which mice were pre-exposed. This study also indicated that the presence of homologous or heterologous opsonizing antibodies leads to a higher uptake of Salmonella by macrophages in vitro, which may explain the higher immune responses in exposed mice. As may be expected, uptake was higher when homologous sera were used as the opsonin rather than heterologous sera. This is depicted in Fig. 2 . Conversely, there are reports that indicate that pre-existing immunity against the bacterial vector downregulates immune responses against the delivered heterologous antigen using similar or related vectors. Attridge and coworkers reported that the presence of immunity against the bacterial vector prior to the delivery of vectored antigenic Microbiology 159 protein can downregulate immune responses in mice against the delivered antigen (Attridge et al., 1997) . Similar results were reported by Roberts et al. (1999) and Vindurampulle & Attridge (2003a, b) . However, the latter authors found that the hypo-responsiveness could be largely eliminated by exposing animals to the foreign antigen prior to vectorpriming (Vindurampulle & Attridge, 2003b) . Unfortunately, this would appear to be impractical for an immunization regimen! A study presented by Gahan et al. (2008) immunized mice with S. Typhimurium expressing C fragment of tetanus toxin antigen from an expression plasmid or as a DNA vaccine. Vaccinated mice developed humoral responses to LPS and tetC (for the plasmid-bearing vaccines). Animals from all groups (including a previously unvaccinated group) were immunized on day 182 with Salmonella expressing tetC. At this time, the anti-LPS and tetC titres were beginning to wane. Fourteen days after the second immunization, the colonization of various mouse organs was assessed. The ability to colonize was found to be significantly reduced in groups that had been previously vaccinated with Salmonella. In view of this finding, it was perhaps not surprising that at day 210 the LPS titres were not significantly different between groups receiving one or two vaccinations. More interestingly, mice that had been primed with Salmonella alone, and then boosted with Salmonella expressing tetC, induced much lower anti-tetC responses than mice that had not been primed. This argues strongly that prior immunological immunity to the vector can seriously dampen subsequent antigen-specific humoral responses. Whether the same is true for cellular responses was not evaluated. Other studies have evaluated cellular responses. A study by Sevil Domènech and colleagues reported that pre-existing anti-vector immunity seriously compromises CD8 + responses in mice when exposed to a similar strain used as vector (Sevil Domènech et al., 2007) . In contrast, another study by the same authors reported that animals exposed to related vectors induce much higher CD8 + responses when compared with animals which do not have any pre-existing Salmonella immunity (Sevil Domènech et al., 2008) . The difference between these two studies was that in the first, the prime and boost were with identical serovars, while in the second study, different serovars were used. This may point to a way of avoiding downregulation of CD8 responses by pre-existing immunity. This is important, as one of the advantages of using Salmonella (an intracellular pathogen) is that strong cellular immune responses can be induced. It must be noted that in the case of Salmonella vaccines, effects other than strictly immunological responses (particularly adaptive responses) should be considered. In the context of innate immunity, it was shown that administration of non-virulent Salmonella to gnobiotic pigs eliminated disease following challenge with a virulent strain (Foster et al., 2003) . Interestingly, protection was not by competitive exclusion, as the virulent strain was in high numbers in the gut but did not distribute systemically. The protection was proposed to be mediated by the infiltration of a large number of polymorphonuclear leukocytes into the gut, and although perhaps impractical as a general prophylactic (as the time between vaccination and infection is short), this may be an option for short-term or perhaps therapeutic vaccination (as reviewed by Foster et al., 2012) . Chickens (Gallus gallus) are a natural animal reservoir for Salmonella, which makes them an important source of Salmonella-associated gastroenteritis in humans. The ability to use oral Salmonella vaccines to immunize against heterologous pathogens would be of enormous benefit to Uptake of STM-1 by J774 macrophages, relative to the highest uptake percentage. X, Opsonized with naive sera; m, opsonized with serum from mice exposed to Salmonella enteriditis; &, opsonized with serum from mice exposed to STM-1. Pre-existing immunity against vaccine vectors the poultry industry in both broiler and layer flocks. Both vertical and horizontal transmission is associated with Salmonella in chickens (Liljebjelke et al., 2005) . Vertical transmission via in ovo transmission is particularly important, because if there is prior exposure to the vaccine strain, subsequent vaccination using an oral Salmonella vector could be severely compromised. A considerable number of studies on cross-protective immunity and competitive exclusion have been undertaken in chickens. Protective cross-reactive immunity against Salmonella strains has been demonstrated against both homologous and heterologous challenges (Beal et al., 2006) , although cross-serogroup protection was not strong. Furthermore, a recent study reported that pretreatment of newly hatched chickens with different Salmonella strains could produce a complete invasioninhibition effect on any subsequent exposure to both homologous and heterologous strains (Methner et al., 2010) . Pre-exposure with a highly invasive form of Salmonella Enteritidis caused a large influx of heterophils to the caecal mucosa in 1-day-old chicks, and subsequent heterologous caecal colonization was inhibited for a period of 48 h (Methner et al., 2010) . The implications of this kind of colonization-inhibition study on the immunological status of the affected chickens are yet to be fully elucidated. It should be noted that the studies listed in Tables 1 and 2 are controlled laboratory studies, with the possibility of a competitive exclusion component to immunity not discussed. Similarly studies of L. monocytogenes and the effects of preexisting immune responses indicate conflicting results. A study by Bouwer et al. (1999) indicates that pre-existing immune responses against the Listeria vector do not diminish immune responses against the delivered heterologous antigen, and a similar study by Starks et al. (2004) also concluded that prior exposure of mice to the empty Listeria vector did not influence anti-cancer immune responses when a similar mutant was used as a carrier of a melanoma cancer antigen. Similar findings were reported by Whitney et al. (2011) in rhesus macaques in which L. monocytyogens was used as a carrier of gag-HIV antigen. Conversely, studies by Stevens et al. (2005) in which L. monocytogens was used to deliver feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) gag protein and as a carrier of DNA vaccines to vaccinate cats against FIV envelope protein indicated lower immune responses against the delivered antigen in cats exposed to empty Listeria vector in comparison with naive animals (Stevens et al., 2005) . Similar findings have been reported by Tvinnereim et al. (2002) and Leong et al. (2009) . However, taken together, these studies conclude that prior exposure of host animals to empty vector does not abrogate immune responses to the vectored antigen, but only reduces them somewhat. Only the study by Vijh et al. (1999) indicated that exposure to the empty vector may completely abrogate immune responses against the delivered antigens (Vijh et al., 1999) . However, these studies also indicate that downregulation of antigenspecific immune responses is highly dependent on dose and time. Leong et al. (2009) also demonstrated that the negative impact of vector-specific immune responses can also be countered by repeated immunization with the same vaccine and dose; this in effect leads to higher priming of naive T cells against the delivered antigen. Of course, such repeated vaccination may not be practicable in real-world situations. Despite the many advantages which viral vectoring can offer, pre-existing immunity is a major obstacle of many viralvectored vaccines, such as Ad serotype 5 or herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), where the rate of seroprevalence to these viruses is very high [40-45 % and 70 % (or more) of the US population, respectively] (Hocknell et al., 2002; Pichla-Gollon et al., 2009) . Vector-specific antibodies may impede the induction of immune responses to the vaccine-encoded antigens, as they may reduce the dose and time of exposure of the target cells to the vaccinated antigens (Pichla-Gollon et al., 2009; Pine et al., 2011) . In a large-scale clinical trial (STEP) of an Ad serotype 5 (AdHu5)-based HIV-1 vaccine, the vaccines showed a lack of efficacy and tended to increase the risk of HIV-1 infection in vaccine recipients who had pre-existing neutralizing antibodies to AdHu5 (Buchbinder et al., 2008) . For an HSV-1-based vector vaccine, it has been demonstrated that pre-existing anti-HSV-1 immunity reduced, but did not abolish, humoral and cellular immune responses against the vaccine-encoded antigen (Hocknell et al., 2002; Lauterbach et al., 2005) . However, Brockman and Knipe found that the induction of durable antibody responses and cellular proliferative responses to HSVencoded antigen were not affected by prior HSV immunity (Brockman & Knipe, 2002) . Similarly, pre-existing immunity to poliovirus has little effect on vaccine efficacy in a poliovirus-vectored vaccine (Mandl et al., 2001) . Different effects of pre-existing immunity on the efficacy of recombinant viral vaccine vectors are summarized in Table 2 . There are several approaches to avoiding pre-existing vector immunity, such as the use of vectors derived from nonhuman sources, using human viruses of rare serotypes (Kahl et al., 2010; Lasaro & Ertl, 2009) , heterologous prime-boost approaches (Liu et al., 2008) , homologous reimmunization (Steffensen et al., 2012) and removing key neutralizing epitopes on the surface of viral capsid proteins (Gabitzsch & Jones, 2011; Roberts et al., 2006) . The inhibitory effect of pre-existing immunity can also be avoided by masking the Ad vector inside dendritic cells (DCs) (Steffensen et al., 2012) . In addition, mucosal vaccination or administration of higher vaccine doses can overcome pre-existing immunity problems (Alexander et al., 2012; Belyakov et al., 1999; Priddy et al., 2008; Xiang et al., 2003) . As we search for new vaccine approaches for the array of pathogens for which none is yet available, revisiting proven vaccines and developing these further has gained M. Saxena and others momentum. Hence, attenuated bacteria and viruses which have a long history of efficacy and safety are being brought into use. While very attractive, a common theme in these experimental approaches has been the limitations that preexisting immunity to the vector may pose. However, as this examination of the relevant literature shows, there is a rather confusing picture, with some studies in fact indicating that pre-existing immunity may be a friend, rather than foe. Few studies using viral vectors have reported on the influence of pre-existing immunity on humoral responses. Generally speaking, for bacterial-delivered antigens, the humoral responses were influenced by pre-existing immunity, with slightly more studies finding augmentation rather than diminution. Why is there variation? This may be due to several factors, including the type of Salmonella used and its invasiveness. Dunstan and colleagues tested the ability of six isogenic Salmonella serovar Typhimurium strains harbouring different mutations for their ability to induce immune responses against the C fragment of tetanus toxin and concluded that the strain which had the least ability to colonize Peyer's patches induced the lowest immune responses (Dunstan et al., 1998) . Similarly, the boosting time and nature of the antigen used might be important. Attridge and colleagues indicated the importance of boosting time. In one experiment, boosting mice at 10 weeks led to complete inhibition of antibody responses against the delivered heterologous antigen; however, when the mice were boosted at 4 weeks, the downregulation of antibody responses was not so prominent (Attridge et al., 1997) . A similar study conducted by Kohlers and colleagues shows that boosting at 7 weeks after pre-exposing animals to empty vector leads to lower antigen-specific IgG and secretory IgA responses; however, boosting at 14 weeks leads to higher IgG and secretory IgA responses (Kohler et al., 2000b) . This is in conflict with the above result, although it should be mentioned that they used different Salmonella species. Vindurampulle and Attridge also examined the impact of the Salmonella strain and the nature of the antigens used. In their study, they used S. Dublin and Salmonella Stanley aroA mutants to deliver E. coli K88 and LT-B antigens, and concluded that the effect of pre-existing immunity depends on both the strain used and the type of antigen delivered (Vindurampulle & Attridge, 2003b) . All these studies on the effect of pre-existing immunity discuss the impact on humoral responses. Sevil Domenech and colleagues reported that pre-exposing animals to the homologous Salmonella vector leads to a significant reduction in CD8 + responses; however, exposure of animals to a heterologous strain leads to significantly higher CD8 + responses (Sevil Domènech et al., 2007 , 2008 . Saxena and colleagues also reported that antigenspecific T cell responses were either similar or significantly higher, with no downregulation in T cell responses observed after pre-exposing mice to either homologous or heterologous strains (Saxena et al., 2009) . For viral vectors, the impact of cell-mediated immunity was more pronounced, and as depicted in Table 2 , almost always resulted in a reduction in the subsequent immune response. Presumably this is because viruses will induce neutralizing antibody on the first dose, and in subsequent doses this antibody will limit the number of transduced cells, therefore limiting the responses. This is particularly a problem with a common viral vector such as Ad, where a large proportion of the population will have immunological memory against common serotypes (Lasaro & Ertl, 2009) . As these authors conclude, it will be possible to utilize such vectors only by developing vaccines from alternative serotypes. It may be that a vector such as Pre-existing immunity against vaccine vectors attenuated influenza virus, with the ability to easily develop reassortants, will be useful in this context. In addition, immunological memory in the form of opsonizing antibody certainly plays an important role in the early uptake of Salmonella by macrophages and DC. This may be beneficial, as the live bacterial vector used for delivery purposes harbours mutations in genes encoding proteins responsible for their survival in the animal host. This not only encumbers their ability to cause disease, making them safe live vectors, but also limits the number of replications. The presence of opsonizing antibodies should mean a higher level of bacterial uptake, leading to higher presentation to the immune system and therefore a better immune response. We have previously shown that this is indeed the case (Saxena et al., 2009 ) (depicted in Fig. 2 ). It would be of great benefit to address these issues not only in mice but also in other organisms such as chickens, which are the most likely host to be targeted for the use of live Salmonella vectors, specifically where the vaccines are developed for use in livestock and poultry. To summarize, bacterial vectors such as Salmonella and viral vectors such as Ad show great promise as delivery vehicles for heterologous antigens; however, prior exposure to the vector must be considered. By judicious selection of the strain/serotype it will be possible to avoid the negative effects and it may indeed be possible to positively influence the response, particularly for humoral immunity.

What is the effect of host immune response to the viral delivery vector on the efficacy of vaccination?

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068164/ SHA: ce358c18aac69fc83c7b2e9a7dca4a43b0f60e2e Authors: Spiteri, Gianfranco; Fielding, James; Diercke, Michaela; Campese, Christine; Enouf, Vincent; Gaymard, Alexandre; Bella, Antonino; Sognamiglio, Paola; Sierra Moros, Maria José; Riutort, Antonio Nicolau; Demina, Yulia V.; Mahieu, Romain; Broas, Markku; Bengnér, Malin; Buda, Silke; Schilling, Julia; Filleul, Laurent; Lepoutre, Agnès; Saura, Christine; Mailles, Alexandra; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Coignard, Bruno; Bernard-Stoecklin, Sibylle; Behillil, Sylvie; van der Werf, Sylvie; Valette, Martine; Lina, Bruno; Riccardo, Flavia; Nicastri, Emanuele; Casas, Inmaculada; Larrauri, Amparo; Salom Castell, Magdalena; Pozo, Francisco; Maksyutov, Rinat A.; Martin, Charlotte; Van Ranst, Marc; Bossuyt, Nathalie; Siira, Lotta; Sane, Jussi; Tegmark-Wisell, Karin; Palmérus, Maria; Broberg, Eeva K.; Beauté, Julien; Jorgensen, Pernille; Bundle, Nick; Pereyaslov, Dmitriy; Adlhoch, Cornelia; Pukkila, Jukka; Pebody, Richard; Olsen, Sonja; Ciancio, Bruno Christian Date: 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.9.2000178 License: cc-by Abstract: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters’ index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. Text: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. A cluster of pneumonia of unknown origin was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1] . On 12 January 2020, Chinese authorities shared the sequence of a novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from some clustered cases [2] . Since then, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID -19) . As at 21 February 2020, the virus had spread rapidly mostly within China but also to 28 other countries, including in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region [3] [4] [5] . Here we describe the epidemiology of the first cases of COVID-19 in this region, excluding cases reported in the United Kingdom (UK), as at 21 February 2020. The study includes a comparison between cases detected among travellers from China and cases whose infection was acquired due to subsequent local transmission. On 27 January 2020, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe asked countries to complete a WHO standard COVID-19 case report form for all confirmed and probable cases according to WHO criteria [6] [7] [8] . The overall aim of surveillance at this time was to support the global strategy of containment of COVID-19 with rapid identification and follow-up of cases linked to affected countries in order to minimise onward transmission. The surveillance objectives were to: describe the key epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected in Europe; inform country preparedness; and improve further case detection and management. Data collected included demographics, history of recent travel to affected areas, close contact with a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, underlying conditions, signs and symptoms of disease at onset, type of specimens from which the virus was detected, and clinical outcome. The WHO case definition was adopted for surveillance: a confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (ECDC recommended two separate SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests), irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms, whereas a probable case was a suspect case for whom testing for SARS-CoV-2 was inconclusive or positive using a pan-coronavirus assay [8] . By 31 January 2020, 47 laboratories in 31 countries, including 38 laboratories in 24 European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries, had diagnostic capability for SARS-CoV-2 available (close to 60% of countries in the WHO European Region), with cross-border shipment arrangements in place for many of those lacking domestic testing capacity. The remaining six EU/EEA countries were expected to have diagnostic testing available by mid-February [9] . As at 09:00 on 21 February 2020, 47 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the WHO European Region and one of these cases had died [4] . Data on 38 of these cases (i.e. all except the nine reported in the UK) are included in this analysis. The first three cases detected were reported in France on 24 January 2020 and had onset of symptoms on 17, 19 and 23 January respectively [10] . The first death was reported on 15 February in France. As at 21 February, nine countries had reported cases ( Figure) : Belgium (1), Finland (1), France (12), Germany (16), Italy (3), Russia (2), Spain (2), Sweden (1) and the UK (9 -not included further). The place of infection (assessed at national level based on an incubation period presumed to be up to 14 days [11] , travel history and contact with probable or confirmed cases as per the case definition) was reported for 35 cases (missing for three cases), of whom 14 were infected in China (Hubei province: 10 cases; Shandong province: one case; province not reported for three cases). The remaining 21 cases were infected in Europe. Of these, 14 were linked to a cluster in Bavaria, Germany, and seven to a cluster in Haute-Savoie, France [12, 13] . Cases from the Bavarian cluster were reported from Germany and Spain, whereas cases from the Haute-Savoie cluster were reported from France All but two cases were hospitalised (35 of 37 where information on hospitalisation was reported), although it is likely that most were hospitalised to isolate the person rather than because of severe disease. The time from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation (and isolation) ranged between 0 and 10 days with a mean of 3.7 days (reported for 29 cases). The mean number of days to hospitalisation was 2.5 days for cases imported from China, but 4.6 days for those infected in Europe. This was mostly a result of delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany. In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six took only a mean of 2 days to be hospitalised. Symptoms at the point of diagnosis were reported for 31 cases. Two cases were asymptomatic and remained so until tested negative. The asymptomatic cases were tested as part of screening following repatriation and during contact tracing respectively. Of the remaining 29, 20 reported fever, 14 reported cough and eight reported weakness. Additional symptoms reported included headaches (6 cases), sore throat (2), rhinorrhoea (2), shortness of breath (2), myalgia (1), diarrhoea (1) and nausea (1). Fever was reported as the sole symptom for nine cases. In 16 of 29 symptomatic cases, the symptoms at diagnosis were consistent with the case definition for acute respiratory infection [16] , although it is possible that cases presented additional symptoms after diagnosis and these were not reported. Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease. No data on clinical signs e.g. dyspnea etc. were reported for any of the 38 cases. All hospitalised cases had a benign clinical evolution except four, two reported in Italy and two reported in France, all of whom developed viral pneumonia. All three cases who were aged 65 years or over were admitted to intensive care and required respiratory support and one French case died. The case who died was hospitalised for 21 days and required intensive care and mechanical ventilation for 19 days. The duration of hospitalisation was reported for 16 cases with a median of 13 days (range: 8-23 days). As at 21 February 2020, four cases were still hospitalised. All cases were confirmed according to specific assays targeting at least two separate genes (envelope (E) gene as a screening test and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene or nucleoprotein (N) gene for confirmation) [8, 17] . The specimen types tested were reported for 27 cases: 15 had positive nasopharyngeal swabs, nine had positive throat swabs, three cases had positive sputum, two had a positive nasal swab, one case had a positive nasopharyngeal aspirate and one a positive endotracheal aspirate. As at 09:00 on 21 February, few COVID-19 cases had been detected in Europe compared with Asia. However the situation is rapidly developing, with a large outbreak recently identified in northern Italy, with transmission in several municipalities and at least two deaths [18] . As at 5 March 2020, there are 4,250 cases including 113 deaths reported among 38 countries in the WHO European region [19] . In our analysis of early cases, we observed transmission in two broad contexts: sporadic cases among travellers from China (14 cases) and cases who acquired infection due to subsequent local transmission in Europe (21 cases). Our analysis shows that the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation/case isolation was about 3 days longer for locally acquired cases than for imported cases. People returning from affected areas are likely to have a low threshold to seek care and be tested when symptomatic, however delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany meant that locally acquired cases took longer to be detected and isolated. Once the exposure is determined and contacts identified and quarantined (171 contacts in France and 200 in Germany for the clusters in Haute-Savoie and Bavaria, respectively), further cases are likely to be rapidly detected and isolated when they develop symptoms [15, 20] . In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six were hospitalised after a mean of 2 days. Locally acquired cases require significant resources for contact tracing and quarantine, and countries should be prepared to allocate considerable public health resources during the containment phase, should local clusters emerge in their population. In addition, prompt sharing of information on cases and contacts through international notification systems such as the International Health Regulations (IHR) mechanism and the European Commission's European Early Warning and Response System is essential to contain international spread of infection. All of the imported cases had a history of travel to China. This was consistent with the epidemiological situation in Asia, and supported the recommendation for testing of suspected cases with travel history to China and potentially other areas of presumed ongoing community transmission. The situation has evolved rapidly since then, however, and the number of countries reporting COVID-19 transmission increased rapidly, notably with a large outbreak in northern Italy with 3,089 cases reported as at 5 March [18, 19] . Testing of suspected cases based on geographical risk of importation needs to be complemented with additional approaches to ensure early detection of local circulation of COVID-19, including through testing of severe acute respiratory infections in hospitals irrespectively of travel history as recommended in the WHO case definition updated on 27 February 2020 [21] . The clinical presentation observed in the cases in Europe is that of an acute respiratory infection. However, of the 31 cases with information on symptoms, 20 cases presented with fever and nine cases presented only with fever and no other symptoms. These findings, which are consistent with other published case series, have prompted ECDC to include fever among several clinical signs or symptoms indicative for the suspected case definition. Three cases were aged 65 years or over. All required admission to intensive care and were tourists (imported cases). These findings could reflect the average older age of the tourist population compared with the local contacts exposed to infection in Europe and do not allow us to draw any conclusion on the proportion of severe cases that we could expect in the general population of Europe. Despite this, the finding of older individuals being at higher risk of a severe clinical course is consistent with the evidence from Chinese case series published so far although the majority of infections in China have been mild [22, 23] . This preliminary analysis is based on the first reported cases of COVID-19 cases in the WHO European Region. Given the small sample size, and limited completeness for some variables, all the results presented should be interpreted with caution. With increasing numbers of cases in Europe, data from surveillance and investigations in the region can build on the evidence from countries in Asia experiencing more widespread transmission particularly on disease spectrum and the proportion of infections with severe outcome [22] . Understanding the infection-severity is critical to help plan for the impact on the healthcare system and the wider population. Serological studies are vital to understand the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic. Hospital-based surveillance could help estimate the incidence of severe cases and identify risk factors for severity and death. Established hospital surveillance systems that are in place for influenza and other diseases in Europe may be expanded for this purpose. In addition, a number of countries in Europe are adapting and, in some cases, already using existing sentinel primary care based surveillance systems for influenza to detect community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This approach will be used globally to help identify evidence of widespread community transmission and, should the virus spread and containment no longer be deemed feasible, to monitor intensity of disease transmission, trends and its geographical spread. Additional research is needed to complement surveillance data to build knowledge on the infectious period, modes of transmission, basic and effective reproduction numbers, and effectiveness of prevention and case management options also in settings outside of China. Such special studies are being conducted globally, including a cohort study on citizens repatriated from China to Europe, with the aim to extrapolate disease incidence and risk factors for infection in areas with community transmission. Countries together with ECDC and WHO, should use all opportunities to address these questions in a coordinated fashion at the European and global level. provided input to the outline, multiple versions of the manuscript and gave approval to the final draft.

Why are serological tests vital?

Emergent severe acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by adenovirus type 55 in immunocompetent adults in 2013: a prospective observational study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4243941/ SHA: f5b706d0529bfcf7e2d1dfc037df5b6f95fc5ec0 Authors: Sun, Bing; He, Hangyong; Wang, Zheng; Qu, Jiuxin; Li, Xuyan; Ban, Chengjun; Wan, Jun; Cao, Bin; Tong, Zhaohui; Wang, Chen Date: 2014-08-12 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-014-0456-6 License: cc-by Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Since 2008, severe cases of emerging human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55) in immunocompetent adults have been reported sporadically in China. The clinical features and outcomes of the most critically ill patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by HAdV-55 requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, single-center observational study of pneumonia with ARDS in immunocompetent adults admitted to our respiratory ICU. We prospectively collected and analyzed clinical, laboratory, radiological characteristics, sequential tests of viral load in respiratory tract and blood, treatments and outcomes. RESULTS: The results for a total of five consecutive patients with severe ARDS with confirmed HAdV-55 infection were included. All five patients were immunocompetent young men with a median age of 32 years. The mean time from onset to dyspnea was 5 days. Arterial blood gas analysis at ICU admission revealed profound hypoxia. Mean partial oxygen pressure/fraction of inspired oxygen was 58.1. Mean durations from onset to a single-lobe consolidation shown on chest X-rays (CXRs) and, from the first positive CXR to bilateral multilobar lung infiltrates, were 2 days and 4.8 days, respectively. The viral load was higher than 1 × 10(8) copies in three patients and was 1 × 10(4) in one patient. It was negative in the only patient who survived. The mean duration for noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) failure and IMV failure were 30.8 hours and 6.2 days, respectively. Four patients received venovenous ECMO. Four (80%) of the five patients died despite receiving appropriate respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: HAdV-55 may cause severe ARDS in immunocompetent young men. Persistent high fever, dyspnea and rapid progression to respiratory failure within 2 weeks, together with bilateral consolidations and infiltrates, are the most frequent clinical manifestations of HAdV-55-induced severe ARDS. Viral load monitoring may help predict disease severity and outcome. The NPPV and IMV failure rates were very high, but ECMO may still be the respiratory support therapy of choice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01585922. Registered 20 April 2012 Text: Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) are notorious pathogens in people with compromised immune function and a frequent cause of outbreaks of acute respiratory disease among young children. Life-threatening adenoviral pneumonia has previously been documented among military trainees, patients with AIDS and transplant recipients [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55), which is emerging as a highly virulent pathogen for acute fatal adenoviral pneumonia among immunocompetent adults in China, has gained increasing attention [6] . HAdV-55 is a newly identified, emergent acute respiratory disease pathogen causing two recent outbreaks in China in 2006 [7] and in Singapore in 2005 [8] . In 2011, this pathogen apparently re-emerged in Beijing, China, causing several cases of severe community-acquired pneumonia [9] . This pathogen was fully characterized by whole-genome sequencing [10] . Comparative studies showed that the ability of HAdV to cause severe disease may relate to the serotypes of HAdVs. Severe adenoviral pneumonia induced by HAdV-55 has been reported to be more closely related to severe cases compared to other serotypes (HAdV-3, HAdV-7 and HAdV-14) [6] . Current knowledge of HAdV-55-induced severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support in immunocompetent adults is derived from single case reports or relatively small, single-center series. As a result, little information is available on HAdV-55 pneumonia complicated with severe ARDS, the frequency of which is expected to increase in the coming years. Here we describe the clinical features and outcomes of five prospective cases of HAdV-55 pneumonia complicated with severe ARDS in immunocompetent adults in our ICU. Beginning in May 2012, a randomized trial of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) in ARDS patients was carried out in our center (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01585922). From May 2012 to April 2014, all adult patients with ARDS caused by pneumonia who were admitted to the respiratory ICU of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were prospectively enrolled. Severe ARDS was diagnosed according to the Berlin definition: (1) developing within 1 week of a known clinical insult or new or worsening respiratory symptoms; (2) bilateral opacities not fully explained by effusions, lobar and/or lung collapse, or nodules; (3) respiratory failure not fully explained by cardiac failure or fluid overload; (4) partial oxygen pressure/ fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO 2 /FiO 2 ) ≤100 mmHg with positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) ≥5 cmH 2 O; and (5) a chest radiograph with three or four quadrants with opacities. Patients with HAdV-55 infection and severe ARDS who failed conventional NPPV and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) were included in the analysis. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital (LLKYPJ2012031). Data were analyzed anonymously. Each patient gave written informed consent for their data to be used for research and publication. Clinical information collected by investigators with a standardized data form included the following: demographic characteristics (age and sex), comorbidities, clinical symptoms (fever, cough, sputum, dyspnea, chest pain, rash, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, diarrhea and headache), signs (body temperature, heart rate, respiratory frequency, blood pressure and crackles in the lungs), laboratory tests (whole-blood cell count and blood chemistry) and microbiological findings and images of the lung (chest X-ray (CXR) and computed tomography). Concomitant medications, respiratory support, complications and outcomes were also recorded. Patients' specimens, including sputum, whole blood and serum samples, were collected upon admission and during hospitalization. Microbiological tests were performed at the Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology in our center, and the detection methods used were described in our previous report [6] . Common viruses causing respiratory illness were screened using a kit with 15 different viral assays. Serum samples were used for Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydia pneumoniae and Legionella pneumophila antibodies. All patients had their HAdV-55 infection confirmed by RT-PCR assay. Partial sequences of the hexon gene were analyzed to type the phylogeny of HAdV-55 strains. The adenoviral load was also performed on both respiratory specimens and blood by multiplex RT-PCR assay. Viral pneumonia was diagnosed based on the presence of HAdV detected in sputum or throat swab samples by molecular methods. Continuous variables were summarized as mean ± standard deviation (SD) or median (interquartile range). During the study period, a total of eight patients diagnosed with HAdV infection and respiratory failure were admitted to our ICU, and seven of them received a diagnosis of ARDS. Five consecutive patients with severe ARDS with confirmed HAdV-55 infection were admitted to our ICU between April and July 2013. They were included in the analysis. The other two patients had mild ARDS and were infected with other types of HAdVs. All five patients were immunocompetent young men with a median age of 32 years (range, 28 to 40 years). All of the patients shared a B blood type and came from the same city: Baoding city, Hebei province, northern China. All patients had no exposure to farm animals, corn or hay. Patient 3 had tuberculosis pleuritis and received antituberculosis therapy at ICU admission. His blood tests, including the T-SPOT tuberculosis assay (Oxford Immunotec, Marlborough, MA, USA) and antibody of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, were negative. Flulike symptoms, such as fever, cough and little sputum, were commonly observed at the onset of illness. All patients presented with a high fever, with a mean body temperature of 39.5°C (range, 39.0°C to 40.0°C), which persisted for 8 days (range, 6 to 11 days). Productive cough was observed in two patients. Dull substernal chest pain and rash were also observed in two patients. All patients had dyspnea. The mean time from onset to dyspnea was 5 days (range, 1 to 10 days). After the onset of dyspnea, patients usually progressed to respiratory failure or hypoxemia. The mean time from onset to ICU admission was 9.6 days (range, 8 to 11 days) ( Table 1) . All patients had tachypnea when admitted to the ICU, with a mean rate of 43 breaths per minute (range = 38 to 52). Arterial blood gas analysis at ICU admission revealed profound hypoxia, with a mean PaO 2 /FiO 2 of 58.1 (range = 49 to 62.5). White blood cell counts were low or in the normal range. All patients had elevated serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH) ( Table 1) . At admission, all patients' levels of immunoglobulin (serum immunoglobulins G and M) and components C3 and C4 were in the normal range. Four patients had lower than normal T-cell subset counts (Table 2) . CXRs revealed multiple bilateral lobar or segment consolidation in the lungs of all five patients, and radiographic lesions progressed rapidly after ICU admission ( Figure 1 ). Three patients were examined by highresolution computed tomography (HRCT). Unilateral or bilateral consolidations and infiltrates were found on HRCT scans of all three of these patients. Consolidations within a single lobe or several lobes with a clear border and air bronchogram were the most common findings on HRCT scans. Nodules, patches, pleural effusion, abscess and a cavity were also seen visualized by HRCT (Figure 2 ). The mean duration from onset to a single-lobe consolidation on CXRs was 2 days (range = 1 to 5 days). The mean duration from the first positive CXR to bilaterally multilobar lung infiltrates was 4.8 days (range = 4 to 7 days). All patients had HAdV-55 viremia. In four of the five patients, it was first detected in endotracheal aspirate (ETA) samples. The time between initial ETA sample collection of adenoviruses and positive results for HAdV-55 nucleic acid in the blood was 1 to 10 days (Table 3) . Virus DNA copies in ETAs were determined for all patients during their ICU stay. The viral load was higher than 1 × 10 8 copies in three patients and 1 × 10 4 in one patient. The viral load became negative in the only patient who survived. In the four patients who did not survive, DNA copies did not decrease, even with antiviral therapy (Figure 3 ). Oxygenation was not maintained with conventional NPPV or IMV support in any of the patients. The mean duration until NPPV failure was 30.8 hours (range = 22 to 48 hours), and the mean time until IMV failure was 6.2 days (range 2 = to 13 days) ( Table 1) . Four patients received venovenous ECMO to maintain oxygen saturation, and one patient refused ECMO support and received high-frequency oscillatory ventilation instead. Table 4 gives the oxygenation data of patients before and after venovenous ECMO support. All patients received antiviral therapy, including acyclovir (10 mg/kg, every 8 hours, intravenous drip), ganciclovir (5 mg/kg, every 12 hours, intravenous drip) and ribavirin (250 mg, twice daily, intravenous drip). Considering that bacterial coinfection may combine with a severe viral infection, broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotics were given to all patients. Tests for bacterial pathogens were negative for only one patient (Table 3) . Four (80%) of the five patients died. Among the four patients receiving venovenous ECMO, only one patient survived. The other four patients died due to ARDS, Aspergillus fumigatus coinfection, septic shock and catheter-related bloodstream infection due to Acinetobacter baumannii, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first cohort observational study on the clinical characteristics of patients with severe ARDS caused by emergent HAdV-55 infection and also the first on the evaluation of a viral load test for monitoring the reaction to therapy and for prediction of patient outcome. The following are the main findings of this study. (1) HAdV-55 may cause severe ARDS in immunocompetent young men with blood type B. All of our patients were from the same city of Hebei province, northern China. (2) Persistent high fever, dyspnea and rapid progression to respiratory failure within 2 weeks, together with bilateral consolidations and infiltrates at the same time, are the most frequent clinical manifestations of severe HAdV-55induced ARDS. (3) Viral load monitoring may help predict disease severity and patient outcome. (4) The NPPV and IMV failure rates were very high, and ECMO may be the last support method for this group of patients. (5) HAdV-55-induced severe ARDS has a very high mortality rate (80%) despite appropriate respiratory support. Sporadic severe adenoviral infection in healthy adults has historically been described for serotype 4 [11] , serotype 7 [4, 12] and, more recently, serotype 14 in the general population and in military trainees [13, 14] . HAdV-55 was first completely characterized in Shaanxi, China [7] and then reemerged in Hebei, a province close to Beijing, where it caused several cases of acute respiratory disease [9] . It was presumed that HAdV-55 was a recombinant form of the B2 species of HAdV-14 and HAdV-11 [7, 15] due to its sharing a hexon gene with the HAdV-11 and HAdV-14 chassis [16] . The results of our study show that HAdV-55, as an emerging pathogen among immunocompetent adults, may cause severe ARDS. The prevalence of severe fatal adenoviral pneumonia induced by HAdV-55 in our study is somewhat similar to that described by Cao and colleagues [6] . All cases of reported HAdV-55 in our study were from the same city: Baoding, Hebei province, northern China. They occurred between April and July 2013, just partly overlapping or following the influenza epidemic. The patients with severe disease also came from the same region and were treated during a similar time period, which suggests that HAdV-55 may be an important viral pathogen derived from this region. Our study results suggest that the following may be clinical features of ARDS caused by HAdV-55: persistent high fever, rapid progression of dyspnea, need for mechanical ventilation support, elevated AST level and rapid progression from unilateral infiltrates to bilateral consolidations. These clinical features are highly similar to those of ARDS caused by other types of HAdV described in previous reports [6, 9] . Recent studies have shown that the immune system plays a crucial role in the clearance of HAdV viremia and survival of the host [17] . Chen et al. reported that, in the acute phase of HAdV-55 infection, patients with severe disease may have high levels of dendritic cells and Th17 cells [18] . In our study, the only patient who recovered from severe infection had higher T-cell counts. Three of the five patients had relatively low T-cell counts when admitted. Our results suggest that these three patients may have been relatively immunocompromised and that a lower T-cell count may be a risk factor for HAdV-55 infection in young adults. HAdV-55 DNA was previously reported in 41.2% of patients with severe infection [18] . In our study, HAdV-55 DNA was detected and monitored in all patients with severe ARDS. The initial, and trend of, viral load that presented as HAdV-55 DNA copies in the respiratory tract samples and blood may suggest the severity of infection and may predict both the reaction to therapy and patient outcome. The use of mechanical ventilation and ECMO in patients with ARDS caused by HAdV-55 has not been detailed in previous studies. In our cohort, we found that severe HAdV-55 infection could cause a rapid progression of respiratory failure, with a very high failure rate for NPPV and IMV. This failure rate may be a result of the large area of consolidation that induced a severe shunt in the lung, which may lead to lack of response to positive pressure ventilation. For patients with severe ARDS, ECMO should be considered a better choice for oxygenation. Our study has limitations. It is an observational study with no comparison group, so the difference between the severe and modest infections could not be clarified in terms of immune status, clinical features, radiological findings, viral load and treatment effects on respiratory support and antiviral therapy. Sequential dynamic analysis is needed to determine the relationship between HAdV-55 viremia and treatment response.

What is the mean time of onset of symptoms to ICU admission in human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55)?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What is an example of failure of rAd5?

Frontiers in antiviral therapy and immunotherapy https://doi.org/10.1002/cti2.1115 SHA: facbfdfa7189ca9ff83dc30e5d241ab22e962dbf Authors: Heaton, Steven M Date: 2020 DOI: 10.1002/cti2.1115 License: cc-by Abstract: nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins (MMHPs), thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element (ARE)-containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus (HPV), influenza (IAV), Ebola (EboV), dengue (DenV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles (MV), zika (ZikV) and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome (IAV) for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus (nCoV / COVID-19) outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED), tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity (AIFII) and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences (ConBio) conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time.

What is aiming to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages?

Potential Rapid Diagnostics, Vaccine and Therapeutics for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): A Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030623 SHA: 9b0c87f808b1b66f2937d7a7acb524a756b6113b Authors: Pang, Junxiong; Wang, Min Xian; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Tan, Sharon Hui Xuan; Lewis, Ruth Frances; Chen, Jacinta I. Pei; Gutierrez, Ramona A.; Gwee, Sylvia Xiao Wei; Chua, Pearleen Ee Yong; Yang, Qian; Ng, Xian Yi; Yap, Rowena K. S.; Tan, Hao Yi; Teo, Yik Ying; Tan, Chorh Chuan; Cook, Alex R.; Yap, Jason Chin-Huat; Hsu, Li Yang Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030623 License: cc-by Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence. Text: Since mid-December 2019 and as of early February 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan (Hubei Province, China) has infected over 25,000 laboratory-confirmed cases across 28 countries with about 500 deaths (a case-fatality rate of about 2%). More than 90% of the cases and deaths were in China [1] . Based on the initial reported surge of cases in Wuhan, the majority were males with a median age of 55 years and linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market [2] . Most of the reported cases had similar symptoms at the onset of illness such as fever, cough, and myalgia or fatigue. Most cases developed pneumonia and some severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome [3] . The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a betacoronavirus, forms a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus of the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily [4] . The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are also betacoronaviruses that are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to potential fatal illness during the outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively [5, 6] . Based on current evidence, pathogenicity for 2019-nCoV is about 3%, which is significantly lower than SARS-CoV (10%) and MERS-CoV (40%) [7] . However, 2019-nCoV has potentially higher transmissibility (R0: 1.4-5.5) than both SARS-CoV (R0: [2] [3] [4] [5] and MERS-CoV (R0: <1) [7] . With the possible expansion of 2019-nCoV globally [8] and the declaration of the 2019-nCoV outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, there is an urgent need for rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics to detect, prevent and contain 2019-nCoV promptly. There is however currently a lack of understanding of what is available in the early phase of 2019-nCoV outbreak. The systematic review describes and assesses the potential rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for 2019-nCoV, based in part on the developments for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies examining the diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. There were two independent reviewers each focusing on SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV, respectively. A third independent reviewer was engaged to resolve any conflicting article of interest. We used the key words "SARS", "coronavirus", "MERS", "2019 Novel coronavirus", "Wuhan virus" to identify the diseases in the search strategy. The systematic searches for diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines were carried out independently and the key words "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "diagnosis", "point of care testing" and "rapid diagnostic test" were used in conjunction with the disease key words for the respective searches. Examples of search strings can be found in Table S1 . We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and validation trials (for diagnostics test) published in English, that measured (a) the sensitivity and/or specificity of a rapid diagnostic test or a point-of-care testing kit, (b) the impact of drug therapy or (c) vaccine efficacy against either of these diseases with no date restriction applied. For the 2019-nCoV, we searched for all in vitro, animal, or human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 6 February 2020, on the same outcomes of interest. In addition, we reviewed the references of retrieved articles in order to identify additional studies or reports not retrieved by the initial searches. Studies that examined the mechanisms of diagnostic tests, drug therapy or vaccine efficacy against SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV were excluded. A Google search for 2019-nCoV diagnostics (as of 6 February 2020; Table S2 ) yielded five webpage links from government and international bodies with official information and guidelines (WHO, Europe CDC, US CDC, US FDA), three webpage links on diagnostic protocols and scientific commentaries, and five webpage links on market news and press releases. Six protocols for diagnostics using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from six countries were published on WHO's website [9] . Google search for 2019-nCoV vaccines yielded 19 relevant articles. With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, real time RT-PCR remains the primary means for diagnosing the new virus strain among the many diagnostic platforms available ( [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] ; Table S3 ). Among the 16 diagnostics studies selected, one study discussed the use of RT-PCR in diagnosing patients with 2019-nCoV [11] ( Table 1 ). The period and type of specimen collected for RT-PCR play an important role in the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. It was found that the respiratory specimens were positive for the virus while serum was negative in the early period. It has also suggested that in the early days of illness, patients have high levels of virus despite the mild symptoms. Apart from the commonly used RT-PCR in diagnosing MERS-CoV, four studies identified various diagnostic methods such as reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), RT-insulated isothermal PCR (RT-iiPCR) and a one-step rRT-PCR assay based on specific TaqMan probes. RT-LAMP has similar sensitivity as real time RT-PCR. It is also highly specific and is used to detect MERS-CoV. It is comparable to the usual diagnostic tests and is rapid, simple and convenient. Likewise, RT-iiPCR and a one-step rRT-PCR assay have also shown similar sensitivity and high specificity for MER-CoV. Lastly, one study focused on the validation of the six commercial real RT-PCR kits, with high accuracy. Although real time RT-PCR is a primary method for diagnosing MERS-CoV, high levels of PCR inhibition may hinder PCR sensitivity (Table 1) . There are eleven studies that focus on SARS-CoV diagnostic testing (Table 1) . These papers described diagnostic methods to detect the virus with the majority of them using molecular testing for diagnosis. Comparison between the molecular test (i.e RT-PCR) and serological test (i.e., ELISA) showed that the molecular test has better sensitivity and specificity. Hence, enhancements to the current molecular test were conducted to improve the diagnosis. Studies looked at using nested PCR to include a pre-amplification step or incorporating N gene as an additional sensitive molecular marker to improve on the sensitivity (Table 1 ). In addition, there are seven potential rapid diagnostic kits (as of 24 January 2020; Table 2 ) available on the market for 2019-nCoV. Six of these are only for research purposes. Only one kit from Beijing Genome Institute (BGI) is approved for use in the clinical setting for rapid diagnosis. Most of the kits are for RT-PCR. There were two kits (BGI, China and Veredus, Singapore) with the capability to detect multiple pathogens using sequencing and microarray technologies, respectively. The limit of detection of the enhanced realtime PCR method was 10 2 -fold higher than the standard real-time PCR assay and 10 7fold higher than conventional PCR methods In the clinical aspect, the enhanced realtime PCR method was able to detect 6 cases of SARS-CoV positive samples that were not confirmed by any other assay [25] • The real time PCR has a threshold sensitivity of 10 genome equivalents per reaction and it has a good reproducibility with the inter-assay coefficients of variation of 1.73 to 2.72%. • 13 specimens from 6 patients were positive with viral load range from 362 to 36,240,000 genome equivalents/mL. The real-time RT-PCR reaction was more sensitive than the nested PCR reaction, as the detection limit for the nested PCR reaction was about 10 3 genome equivalents in the standard cDNA control. [34] Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp); open reading frame 1a (ORF1a); Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP); enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); immunofluorescent assay (IFA); immunochromatographic test (ICT); nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA). With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, there are about 15 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline globally (Table 3 ), in which a wide range of technology (such as messenger RNA, DNA-based, nanoparticle, synthetic and modified virus-like particle) was applied. It will likely take about a year for most candidates to start phase 1 clinical trials except for those funded by Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). However, the kit developed by the BGI have passed emergency approval procedure of the National Medical Products Administration, and are currently used in clinical and surveillance centers of China [40] . Of the total of 570 unique studies on 2019-nCoV, SARS CoV or MERS-CoV vaccines screened, only four were eventually included in the review. Most studies on SARS and MERS vaccines were excluded as they were performed in cell or animal models ( Figure 1 ). The four studies included in this review were Phase I clinical trials on SARS or MERS vaccines (Table 4 ) [44] [45] [46] [47] . There were no studies of any population type (cell, animal, human) on the 2019-nCoV at the point of screening. The published clinical trials were mostly done in United States except for one on the SARS vaccine done in China [44] . All vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS were reported to be safe, well-tolerated and able to trigger the relevant and appropriate immune responses in the participants. In addition, we highlight six ongoing Phase I clinical trials identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov register ( [48, 49] ); Table S4 ) [50] [51] [52] . These trials are all testing the safety and immunogenicity of their respective MERS-CoV vaccine candidates but were excluded as there are no results published yet. The trials are projected to complete in December 2020 (two studies in Russia [50, 51] ) and December 2021 (in Germany [52] ). Existing literature search did not return any results on completed 2019-nCoV trials at the time of writing. Among 23 trials found from the systematic review (Table 5) , there are nine clinical trials registered under the clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) for 2019-nCoV therapeutics [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . Of which five studies on hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir plus ritonavir and arbidol, mesenchymal stem cells, traditional Chinese medicine and glucocorticoid therapy usage have commenced recruitment. The remaining four studies encompass investigation of antivirals, interferon atomization, darunavir and cobicistat, arbidol, and remdesivir usage for 2019-nCoV patients (Table 5) . Seroconversion measured by S1-ELISA occurred in 86% and 94% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively, and was maintained in 79% participants up to study end at week 60. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 50% participants at one or more time points during the study, but only 3% maintained neutralisation activity to end of study. T-cell responses were detected in 71% and 76% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively. There were no differences in immune responses between dose groups after 6 weeks and vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses were respectively detected in 77% and 64% participants at week 60. [47] Molecules developed by the university scientists inhibit two coronavirus enzymes and prevent its replication. The discovered drug targets are said to be more than 95% similar to enzyme targets found on the SARS virus. Researchers note that identified drugs may not be available to address the ongoing outbreak but they hope to make it accessible for future outbreaks. [85] Besides the six completed randomized controlled trials (RCT) selected from the systematic review (Table 6) , there is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at SARS therapeutics [92] . The studies found from ClinicalTrials.gov have not been updated since 2013. While many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir or ribavirin only, there has yet to be well-designed clinical trials investigating their usage. Three completed randomized controlled trials were conducted during the SARS epidemic-3 in China, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] . The studies respectively investigated antibiotic usage involving 190 participants, combination of western and Chinese treatment vs. Chinese treatment in 123 participants, integrative Chinese and Western treatment in 49 patients, usage of a specific Chinese medicine in four participants and early use of corticosteroid in 16 participants. Another notable study was an open non-randomized study investigating ribavirin/lopinavir/ritonavir usage in 152 participants [98] . One randomized controlled trial investigating integrative western and Chinese treatment during the SARS epidemic was excluded as it was a Chinese article [94] . There is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at MERS therapeutics [99] . It investigates the usage of Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Interferon Beta 1B. Likewise, many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir/ribavirin, interferon, and convalescent plasma usage. To date, only one trial has been completed. One phase 1 clinical trial investigating the safety and tolerability of a fully human polyclonal IgG immunoglobulin (SAB-301) was found in available literature [46] . The trial conducted in the United States in 2017 demonstrated SAB-301 to be safe and well-tolerated at single doses. Another trial on MERS therapeutics was found on ClinicalTrials.gov-a phase 2/3 trial in the United States evaluating the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and immunogenicity on coadministered MERS-CoV antibodies REGN3048 & REGN3051 [100]. Rapid diagnostics plays an important role in disease and outbreak management. The fast and accurate diagnosis of a specific viral infection enables prompt and accurate public health surveillance, prevention and control measures. Local transmission and clusters can be prevented or delayed by isolation of laboratory-confirmed cases and their close contacts quarantined and monitored at home. Rapid diagnostic also facilitates other specific public health interventions such as closure of high-risk facilities and areas associated with the confirmed cases for prompt infection control and environmental decontamination [11, 101] . Laboratory diagnosis can be performed by: (a) detecting the genetic material of the virus, (b) detecting the antibodies that neutralize the viral particles of interest, (c) detecting the viral epitopes of interest with antibodies (serological testing), or (d) culture and isolation of viable virus particles. The key limitations of genetic material detection are the lack of knowledge of the presence of viable virus, the potential cross-reactivity with non-specific genetic regions and the short timeframe for accurate detection during the acute infection phase. The key limitations of serological testing is the need to collect paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phases) from cases under investigation for confirmation to eliminate potential cross-reactivity from non-specific antibodies from past exposure and/or infection by other coronaviruses. The limitation of virus culture and isolation is the long duration and the highly specialized skills required of the technicians to process the samples. All patients recovered. Significantly shorted time from the disease onset to the symptom improvement in treatment (5.10 ± 2.83 days) compared to control group (7.62 ± 2.27 days) (p < 0.05) No significant difference in blood routine improvement, pulmonary chest shadow in chest film improvement and corticosteroid usgae between the 2 groups. However, particularly in the respect of improving clinical symptoms, elevating quality of life, promoting immune function recovery, promoting absorption of pulmonary inflammation, reducing the dosage of cortisteroid and shortening the therapeutic course, treatment with integrative chinese and western medicine treatment had obvious superiority compared with using control treatment alone. Single infusions of SAB-301 up to 50 mg/kg appear to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy participants. [46] Where the biological samples are taken from also play a role in the sensitivity of these tests. For SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, specimens collected from the lower respiratory tract such as sputum and tracheal aspirates have higher and more prolonged levels of viral RNA because of the tropism of the virus. MERS-CoV viral loads are also higher for severe cases and have longer viral shedding compared to mild cases. Although upper respiratory tract specimens such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs can be used, they have potentially lower viral loads and may have higher risk of false-negatives among the mild MERS and SARS cases [102, 103] , and likely among the 2019-nCoV cases. The existing practices in detecting genetic material of coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV include (a) reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), (b) real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR), (c) reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) and (d) real-time RT-LAMP [104] . Nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are usually preferred as in the case of MERS-CoV diagnosis as it has the highest sensitivity at the earliest time point in the acute phase of infection [102] . Chinese health authorities have recently posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the GenBank and in GISAID portal to facilitate in the detection of the virus [11] . Several laboratory assays have been developed to detect the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, as highlighted in WHO's interim guidance on nCoV laboratory testing of suspected cases. These include protocols from other countries such as Thailand, Japan and China [105] . The first validated diagnostic test was designed in Germany. Corman et al. had initially designed a candidate diagnostic RT-PCR assay based on the SARS or SARS-related coronavirus as it was suggested that circulating virus was SARS-like. Upon the release of the sequence, assays were selected based on the match against 2019-nCoV upon inspection of the sequence alignment. Two assays were used for the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene and E gene where E gene assay acts as the first-line screening tool and RdRp gene assay as the confirmatory testing. All assays were highly sensitive and specific in that they did not cross-react with other coronavirus and also human clinical samples that contained respiratory viruses [11] . The Hong Kong University used two monoplex assays which were reactive with coronaviruses under the subgenus Sarbecovirus (consisting of 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and SARS-like coronavirus). Viral RNA extracted from SARS-CoV can be used as the positive control for the suggested protocol assuming that SARS has been eradicated. It is proposed that the N gene RT-PCR can be used as a screening assay while the Orf1b assay acts as a confirmatory test. However, this protocol has only been evaluated with a panel of controls with the only positive control SARS-CoV RNA. Synthetic oligonucleotide positive control or 2019-nCoV have yet to be tested [106] . The US CDC shared the protocol on the real time RT-PCR assay for the detection of the 2019-nCoV with the primers and probes designed for the universal detection of SARS-like coronavirus and the specific detection of 2019-nCoV. However, the protocol has not been validated on other platforms or chemistries apart from the protocol described. There are some limitations for the assay. Analysts engaged have to be trained and familiar with the testing procedure and result interpretation. False negative results may occur due to insufficient organisms in the specimen resulting from improper collection, transportation or handling. Also, RNA viruses may show substantial genetic variability. This could result in mismatch between the primer and probes with the target sequence which can diminish the assay performance or result in false negative results [107] . Point-of-care test kit can potentially minimize these limitations, which should be highly prioritized for research and development in the next few months. Serological testing such as ELISA, IIFT and neutralization tests are effective in determining the extent of infection, including estimating asymptomatic and attack rate. Compared to the detection of viral genome through molecular methods, serological testing detects antibodies and antigens. There would be a lag period as antibodies specifically targeting the virus would normally appear between 14 and 28 days after the illness onset [108] . Furthermore, studies suggest that low antibody titers in the second week or delayed antibody production could be associated with mortality with a high viral load. Hence, serological diagnoses are likely used when nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are not available or accessible [102] . Vaccines can prevent and protect against infection and disease occurrence when exposed to the specific pathogen of interest, especially in vulnerable populations who are more prone to severe outcomes. In the context of the current 2019-nCoV outbreak, vaccines will help control and reduce disease transmission by creating herd immunity in addition to protecting healthy individuals from infection. This decreases the effective R0 value of the disease. Nonetheless, there are social, clinical and economic hurdles for vaccine and vaccination programmes, including (a) the willingness of the public to undergo vaccination with a novel vaccine, (b) the side effects and severe adverse reactions of vaccination, (c) the potential difference and/or low efficacy of the vaccine in populations different from the clinical trials' populations and (d) the accessibility of the vaccines to a given population (including the cost and availability of the vaccine). Vaccines against the 2019-nCoV are currently in development and none are in testing (at the time of writing). On 23 January 2020, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that they will fund vaccine development programmes with Inovio, The University of Queensland and Moderna, Inc respectively, with the aim to test the experimental vaccines clinically in 16 weeks (By June 2020). The vaccine candidates will be developed by the DNA, recombinant and mRNA vaccine platforms from these organizations [109] . Based on the most recent MERS-CoV outbreak, there are already a number of vaccine candidates being developed but most are still in the preclinical testing stage. The vaccines in development include viral vector-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, subunit vaccine, virus-like particles (VLPs)-based vaccine, inactivated whole-virus (IWV) vaccine and live attenuated vaccine. The latest findings for these vaccines arebased on the review by Yong et al. (2019) in August 2019 [110] . As of the date of reporting, there is only one published clinical study on the MERS-CoV vaccine by GeneOne Life Science & Inovio Pharmaceuticals [47] . There was one SARS vaccine trial conducted by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Both Phase I clinical trials reported positive results, but only one has announced plans to proceed to Phase 2 trial [111] . Due to the close genetic relatedness of SARS-CoV (79%) with 2019-nCoV [112] , there may be potential cross-protective effect of using a safe SARS-CoV vaccine while awaiting the 2019-nCoV vaccine. However, this would require small scale phase-by-phase implementation and close monitoring of vaccinees before any large scale implementation. Apart from the timely diagnosis of cases, the achievement of favorable clinical outcomes depends on the timely treatment administered. ACE2 has been reported to be the same cell entry receptor used by 2019-nCoV to infect humans as SARS-CoV [113] . Hence, clinical similarity between the two viruses is expected, particularly in severe cases. In addition, most of those who have died from MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV were advance in age and had underlying health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease that compromised their immune systems [114] . Coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRP), which result in frequent mutations and recombination events. This results in quasispecies diversity that is closely associated with adaptive evolution and the capacity to enhance viral-cell entry to cause disease over time in a specific population at-risk [115] . Since ACE2 is abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, coronaviruses are likely to infect the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract and this may influence the type of therapeutics against 2019-nCoV, similarly to SAR-CoV. However, in the years following two major coronavirus outbreaks SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2012, there remains no consensus on the optimal therapy for either disease [116, 117] . Well-designed clinical trials that provide the gold standard for assessing the therapeutic measures are scarce. No coronavirus protease inhibitors have successfully completed a preclinical development program despite large efforts exploring SARS-CoV inhibitors. The bulk of potential therapeutic strategies remain in the experimental phase, with only a handful crossing the in vitro hurdle. Stronger efforts are required in the research for treatment options for major coronaviruses given their pandemic potential. Effective treatment options are essential to maximize the restoration of affected populations to good health following infections. Clinical trials have commenced in China to identify effective treatments for 2019-nCoV based on the treatment evidence from SARS and MERS. There is currently no effective specific antiviral with high-level evidence; any specific antiviral therapy should be provided in the context of a clinical study/trial. Few treatments have shown real curative action against SARS and MERS and the literature generally describes isolated cases or small case series. Many interferons from the three classes have been tested for their antiviral activities against SARS-CoV both in vitro and in animal models. Interferon β has consistently been shown to be the most active, followed by interferon α. The use of corticosteroids with interferon alfacon-1 (synthetic interferon α) appeared to have improved oxygenation and faster resolution of chest radiograph abnormalities in observational studies with untreated controls. Interferon has been used in multiple observational studies to treat SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV patients [116, 117] . Interferons, with or without ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are most likely to be beneficial and are being trialed in China for 2019-nCoV. This drug treatment appears to be the most advanced. Timing of treatment is likely an important factor in effectiveness. A combination of ribavirin and lopinavir/ritonavir was used as a post-exposure prophylaxis in health care workers and may have reduced the risk of infection. Ribavirin alone is unlikely to have substantial antiviral activities at clinically used dosages. Hence, ribavirin with or without corticosteroids and with lopinavir and ritonavir are among the combinations employed. This was the most common agent reported in the available literature. Its efficacy has been assessed in observational studies, retrospective case series, retrospective cohort study, a prospective observational study, a prospective cohort study and randomized controlled trial ranging from seven to 229 participants [117] . Lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) was the earliest protease inhibitor combination introduced for the treatment of SARS-CoV. Its efficacy was documented in several studies, causing notably lower incidence of adverse outcomes than with ribavirin alone. Combined usage with ribavirin was also associated with lower incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection and death, amongst other favorable outcomes. Recent in vitro studies have shown another HIV protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, to have antiviral capacity against SARS-CoV, although it has yet to show favorable outcomes in animal studies [118] . Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences, GS-5734) nucleoside analogue in vitro and in vivo data support GS-5734 development as a potential pan-coronavirus antiviral based on results against several coronaviruses (CoVs), including highly pathogenic CoVs and potentially emergent BatCoVs. The use of remdesivir may be a good candidate as an investigational treatment. Improved mortality following receipt of convalescent plasma in various doses was consistently reported in several observational studies involving cases with severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) of viral etiology. A significant reduction in the pooled odds of mortality following treatment of 0.25 compared to placebo or no therapy was observed [119] . Studies were however at moderate to high risk of bias given their small sample sizes, allocation of treatment based on the physician's discretion, and the availability of plasma. Factors like concomitant treatment may have also confounded the results. Associations between convalescent plasma and hospital length of stay, viral antibody levels, and viral load respectively were similarly inconsistent across available literature. Convalescent plasma, while promising, is likely not yet feasible, given the limited pool of potential donors and issues of scalability. Monoclonal antibody treatment is progressing. SARS-CoV enters host cells through the binding of their spike (S) protein to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and CD209L [118] . Human monoclonal antibodies to the S protein have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of lung pathology in non-human primates following MERS-CoV infection [120] . Such neutralizing antibodies can be elicited by active or passive immunization using vaccines or convalescent plasma respectively. While such neutralizing antibodies can theoretically be harvested from individuals immunized with vaccines, there is uncertainty over the achievement of therapeutic levels of antibodies. Other therapeutic agents have also been reported. A known antimalarial agent, chloroquine, elicits antiviral effects against multiple viruses including HIV type 1, hepatitis B and HCoV-229E. Chloroquine is also immunomodulatory, capable of suppressing the production and release of factors which mediate the inflammatory complications of viral diseases (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 6) [121] . It is postulated that chloroquine works by altering ACE2 glycosylation and endosomal pH. Its anti-inflammatory properties may be beneficial for the treatment of SARS. Niclosamide as a known drug used in antihelminthic treatment. The efficacy of niclosamide as an inhibitor of virus replication was proven in several assays. In both immunoblot analysis and immunofluorescence assays, niclosamide treatment was observed to completely inhibit viral antigen synthesis. Reduction of virus yield in infected cells was dose dependent. Niclosamide likely does not interfere in the early stages of virus attachment and entry into cells, nor does it function as a protease inhibitor. Mechanisms of niclosamide activity warrant further investigation [122] . Glycyrrhizin also reportedly inhibits virus adsorption and penetration in the early steps of virus replication. Glycyrrhizin was a significantly potent inhibitor with a low selectivity index when tested against several pathogenic flaviviruses. While preliminary results suggest production of nitrous oxide (which inhibits virus replication) through induction of nitrous oxide synthase, the mechanism of Glycyrrhizin against SARS-CoV remains unclear. The compound also has relatively lower toxicity compared to protease inhibitors like ribavirin [123] . Inhibitory activity was also detected in baicalin [124] , extracted from another herb used in the treatment of SARS in China and Hong Kong. Findings on these compounds are limited to in vitro studies [121] [122] [123] [124] . Due to the rapidly evolving situation of the 2019-nCoV, there will be potential limitations to the systematic review. The systematic review is likely to have publication bias as some developments have yet to be reported while for other developments there is no intention to report publicly (or in scientific platforms) due to confidentiality concerns. However, this may be limited to only a few developments for review as publicity does help in branding to some extent for the company and/or the funder. Furthermore, due to the rapid need to share the status of these developments, there may be reporting bias in some details provided by authors of the scientific articles or commentary articles in traditional media. Lastly, while it is not viable for any form of quality assessment and metaanalysis of the selected articles due to the limited data provided and the heterogeneous style of reporting by different articles, this paper has provided a comprehensive overview of the potential developments of these pharmaceutical interventions during the early phase of the outbreak. This systematic review would be useful for cross-check when the quality assessment and meta-analysis of these developments are performed as a follow-up study. Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are key pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Many potential developments on these pharmaceutical interventions for 2019-nCoV are ongoing in the containment phase of this outbreak, potentially due to better pandemic preparedness than before. However, lessons from MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have shown that the journeys for these developments can still be challenging moving ahead. Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at www.mdpi.com/xxx/s1, Table S1 : Example of full search strategy in Pubmed, Table S2 : Google Search: 2019-nCoV diagnostics, Table S3 : Summary of diagnostic assays developed for 2019-nCoV, Table S4

How many clinical trials are registered?

Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0250_article Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 Research Pablo Martinez De Salazar1Comments to Author , René Niehus, Aimee Taylor1, Caroline O’Flaherty Buckee, and Marc LipsitchComments to Author Author affiliations: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA Suggested citation for this article Abstract Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other countries. By February 2020, several countries were reporting imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. To contain the virus, early detection of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases is critical. We used air travel volume estimates from Wuhan, China, to international destinations and a generalized linear regression model to identify locations that could have undetected imported cases. Our model can be adjusted to account for exportation of cases from other locations as the virus spreads and more information on importations and transmission becomes available. Early detection and appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for transmission in all locations. A novel coronavirus, later named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, capital of Hubei Province, China, where cases were first confirmed (1). During December 2019–February 2020, the number of confirmed cases increased drastically. Model estimates suggested that >75,000 persons were infected by January 25, 2020, and the epidemic had a doubling time of ≈6 days (2). By the end of January 2020, travel restrictions were implemented for Wuhan and neighboring cities. Nonetheless, the virus spread from Wuhan to other cities in China and outside the country. By February 4, 2020, a total of 23 locations outside mainland China reported cases, 22 of which reported imported cases; Spain reported a case caused by secondary transmission (3). Most cases imported to other locations have been linked to recent travel history from China (3), suggesting that air travel plays a major role in exportation of cases to locations outside of China. To prevent other cities and countries from becoming epicenters of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, substantial targeted public health interventions are required to detect cases and control local spread of the virus. We collected estimates of air travel volume from Wuhan to 194 international destinations. We then identified 49 countries that had a score of >49.2/100 on category 2, Early Detection and Reporting of Epidemics of Potential International Concern, of the Global Health Security (GHS) Index (4). We assumed these locations would be proficient at detecting SARS-CoV-2 and reporting confirmed imported cases, which we refer to as imported-and-reported cases. We ran a generalized linear regression model on this subset; based on the results, we generated predictions for the remainder of the sample. Using these predictions, we identified locations that might not be detecting imported cases. Methods To identify locations reporting fewer than predicted imported SARS-CoV-2 infected cases, we fit a model to data from 49 locations outside mainland China with high surveillance capacity according to the GHS Index (4). Among these, 17 had high travel connectivity to Wuhan and 32 have low connectivity to Wuhan. We considered locations to be countries without any position on territorial claims. We performed a Poisson regression by using the cumulative number of imported-and-reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in these 49 countries and the estimated number of daily airline passengers from the Wuhan airport. We then compared predictions from this model with imported-and-reported cases across 194 locations from the GHS Index, excluding China as the epicenter of the outbreak. The model requires data on imported-and-reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, daily air travel volume, and surveillance capacity. We obtained data on imported-and-reported cases aggregated by destination from the World Health Organization technical report issued February 4, 2020 (3). We assumed a case count of 0 for locations not listed. We used February 4 as the cutoff for cumulative imported-and-reported case counts because exported cases from Hubei Province dropped rapidly after this date (3), likely because of travel restrictions for the province implement on January 23. We defined imported-and-reported cases as those with known travel history from China; of those, 83% had a travel history from Hubei Province and 17% traveled from unknown locations in China (3). We excluded reported cases likely caused by transmission outside of China or cases in which the transmission source was still under investigation (3). In addition, we excluded Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan from our model because locally transmitted and imported cases were not disaggregated in these locations. We obtained data on daily air travel from a network-based modeling study (S. Lai et al., unpub. data, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479External Link) that reported monthly air travel volume estimates for the 27 locations outside mainland China that are most connected to Wuhan. These estimates were calculated from International Air Travel Association data from February 2018, which includes direct and indirect flight itineraries from Wuhan. For these 27 locations, estimated air travel volumes are >6 passengers/day. We assumed that travel volumes for locations not among the most connected are censored by a detection limit. We used a common method of dealing with censored data from environmental sampling (5), or metabolomics (6), to set the daily air travel volume to half the minimum previously reported. Therefore, we used 3 passengers/day for estimated travel volumes for the 167 locations from the GHS Index not listed by Lai et al. We tested the robustness of our results by using a set of alternative values of 0.1, 1, and 6 passengers/day for the censored data. We defined high surveillance locations as those with a GHS Index for category 2 above the 75th quantile. We assessed the number of high surveillance locations, those with 0 imported-and-reported cases, and low surveillance locations, those with case counts >1 (Table). For our model, we assumed that the cumulative imported-and-reported case counts across 49 high surveillance locations follow a Poisson distribution from the beginning of the epidemic until February 4, 2020. Then the expected case count is linearly proportional to the daily air travel volume in the following formula:where i denotes location, Ci denotes the imported-and-reported case count in a location, λi denotes the expected case count in a location, β denotes the regression coefficient, and xi denotes the daily air travel volume of a location. The Poisson model assumes cases are independent and that the variance is equal to the expected case count. Imported-and-reported cases likely meet the independence assumption because the value excludes cases with local transmission. We also checked the robustness of our results by using an over dispersed model with a negative binomial likelihood. We computed the p value of the overdispersion parameter as shown in Gelman and Hill (7). Thumbnail of Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in number of persons/day. No. cases refers to possible undetected imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. Solid line indicates the expected imported-and-reported case counts for locations. Dashed lines represent 95% prediction interval bounds smoothed for all locations. Purple dots indicate location Figure 1. Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in number of... We used R version 3.6.1 (https://www.r-project.orgExternal Link) to compute , the maximum likelihood estimate of β, and the expected imported-and-reported case count given high surveillance (Figure 1). We also computed the 95% prediction interval (PI) bounds under this model of high surveillance for all 194 values of daily air travel volume (Figure 1). First, we generated a bootstrapped dataset by sampling n locations with replacement among high surveillance locations. Then, we reestimated β by using the bootstrapped dataset. Finally, we simulated imported-and-reported case counts for all 194 locations under our model by using the estimate of β from the bootstrapped dataset. We repeated the 3 steps 50,000 times to generate 50,000 simulated imported-and-reported case counts for each of the locations computed to the lower and upper PI bounds (PI 2.5%–97.5%). We smoothed the 95% PI bounds by using ggplot2 in R (8). We fit the imported-and-reported case counts of the 49 high surveillance locations to the model and plotted these alongside 145 locations with low surveillance capacity (Figure 1). We noted some overlap between high and low surveillance locations (Figure 1). Thumbnail of Analyses of imported-and-reported cases and daily air travel volume using a model to predict locations with potentially undetected cases of severe acute respiratory virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Air travel volume measured in number of persons/day. No. cases refers to possible undetected imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. Solid line shows the expected imported-and-reported case counts based on our model fitted to high surveillance locations, indicated by purple dots. Dashed lines indicate the 95% pr Figure 2. Analyses of imported-and-reported cases and daily air travel volume using a model to predict locations with potentially undetected cases of severe acute respiratory virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Air travel volume measured in... To assess the robustness of our results we ran 8 additional regression analyses by implementing a series of changes to the analysis. The changes included the following: set the daily air travel volume to 0.1, 1, or 6 passengers/day for locations not listed by Lai et al. (unpub. data, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479External Link) (Figure 2, panels A–C); removed all locations not listed by Lai et al. before fitting (Figure 2, panel D); defined high surveillance locations by using a more lenient GHS Index criterion, 50th quantile (Figure 2, panel E), and a more stringent criterion, 95th quantile (Figure 2, panel F); excluded Thailand from the model because it is a high-leverage point (Figure 2, panel G); or used an overdispersed Poisson likelihood with a negative-binomial likelihood (Figure 2, panel H). We provide code for these analyses on GitHub (https://github.com/c2-d2/cov19flightimportExternal Link). Top Results We found that daily air travel volume positively correlates with imported-and-reported case counts of SARS-CoV-2 infection among high surveillance locations (Figure 1). We noted that increasing flight volume by 31 passengers/day is associated with 1 additional expected imported-and-reported case. In addition, Singapore and India lie above the 95% PI in our model; Singapore had 12 more imported-and-reported cases (95% PI 6–17 cases) than expected and India had 3 (95% PI 1–3 cases) more than expected. Thailand has a relatively high air travel volume compared with other locations, but it lies below the 95% PI, reporting 16 (95% PI 1–40 cases) fewer imported-and-reported cases than expected under the model. Indonesia lies below the PI and has no imported-and-reported cases, but the expected case count is 5 (95% PI 1–10 cases) in our model. Across all 8 robustness regression analyses, we consistently observed that Singapore lies above the 95% PI and Thailand and Indonesia lie below (Figure 2). India remains above the 95% PI in all robustness analyses except when we used the more stringent GHS Index, 95th quantile, for fitting; then India lies on the upper bound of the 95% PI (Figure 2, panel F). Top Discussion We aimed to identify locations with likely undetected or underdetected imported cases of SARS-CoV-2 by fitting a model to the case counts in locations with high surveillance capacity and Wuhan-to-location air travel volumes. Our model can be adjusted to account for exportation of cases from locations other than Wuhan as the outbreak develops and more information on importations and self-sustained transmission becomes available. One key advantage of this model is that it does not rely on estimates of incidence or prevalence in the epicenter of the outbreak. Also, we intentionally used a simple generalized linear model. The linearity of the expected case count means that we have only 1 regression coefficient in the model and no extra parameters. The Poisson likelihood then captures the many 0-counts observed for less highly connected locations but also describes the slope between case-count and flight data among more connected locations. We believe this model provides the most parsimonious phenomenologic description of the data. According to our model, locations above the 95% PI of imported-and-reported cases could have higher case-detection capacity. Locations below the 95% PI might have undetected cases because of expected imported-and-reported case counts under high surveillance. Underdetection of cases could increase the international spread of the outbreak because the transmission chain could be lost, reducing opportunities to deploy case-based control strategies. We recommend rapid strengthening of outbreak surveillance and control efforts in locations below the 95% PI lower bound, particularly Indonesia, to curb potential local transmission. Early detection of cases and implantation of appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for self-sustained transmission in all locations. Top Dr. De Salazar is a research fellow at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, working on multiscale statistical models of infectious diseases within host, population, and metapopulation models. His research interests include diagnostic laboratory methods and public health response. Top Acknowledgments We thank Pamela Martinez, Nicholas Jewel, and Stephen Kissler for valuable feedback. This work was supported by US National Institute of General Medical Sciences (award no. U54GM088558). P.M.D was supported by the Fellowship Foundation Ramon Areces. A.R.T. and C.O.B. were supported by a Maximizing Investigator’s Research Award (no. R35GM124715-02) from the US National Institute of General Medical Sciences. The authors are solely responsible for this content and it does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences or the National Institutes of Health. Declaration of interests: Marc Lipsitch has received consulting fees from Merck. All other authors declare no competing interests. Top References Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020;579:270–3. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. 2020;395:689–97. DOIExternal LinkPubMedExternal Link World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—15, 4 Feb 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 14]. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200204-sitrep-15-ncov.pdfExternal Link Nuclear Threat Initiative and Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Global health security index [cited 2020 Feb 14]. https://www.ghsindex.orgExternal Link US Environmental Protection Agency. Data quality assessment: statistical methods for practitioners EPA QA/G9-S [cited 2020 Feb 14]. Washington: The Agency; 2006. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-08/documents/g9s-final.pdfExternal Link Lamichhane S, Sen P, Dickens AM, Hyötyläinen T, Orešič M. An overview of metabolomics data analysis: current tools and future perspectives. In: Jaumot J, Bedia C, Tauler R, editors. Comprehensive analytical chemistry. Vol. 82. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2018. p. 387–413. Gelman A, Hill J. Analytical methods for social research. In: Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2006. p. 235–236. Wickham H. ggplot2: elegant graphics for data analysis. New York: Springer; 2016. Top Figures Figure 1. Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in... Figure 2. Analyses of imported-and-reported cases and daily air travel volume using a model to predict locations with potentially undetected cases of severe acute respiratory virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Air travel volume... Table Table. Surveillance capacity of locations with and without imported-and-reported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, 2020 Top Suggested citation for this article: De Salazar PM, Niehus R, Taylor A, O’Flaherty Buckee C, Lipsitch M. Identifying locations with possible undetected imported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 cases by using importation predictions. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul [date cited]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200250 DOI: 10.3201/eid2607.200250 Original Publication Date: 3/24/2020 1These authors contributed equally to this article. Table of Contents – Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020

Where was SARS-CoV-2 first identified?

Whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of human metapneumovirus strains from Kenya and Zambia https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6941262/ SHA: f5ae3f66face323615df39d838e056ab5fcc98df Authors: Kamau, Everlyn; Oketch, John W.; de Laurent, Zaydah R.; Phan, My V. T.; Agoti, Charles N.; Nokes, D. James; Cotten, Matthew Date: 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1186/s12864-019-6400-z License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is an important cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. Whole genome sequencing enables better identification of transmission events and outbreaks, which is not always possible with sub-genomic sequences. RESULTS: We report a 2-reaction amplicon-based next generation sequencing method to determine the complete genome sequences of five HMPV strains, representing three subgroups (A2, B1 and B2), directly from clinical samples. In addition to reporting five novel HMPV genomes from Africa we examined genetic diversity and sequence patterns of publicly available HMPV genomes. We found that the overall nucleotide sequence identity was 71.3 and 80% for HMPV group A and B, respectively, the diversity between HMPV groups was greater at amino acid level for SH and G surface protein genes, and multiple subgroups co-circulated in various countries. Comparison of sequences between HMPV groups revealed variability in G protein length (219 to 241 amino acids) due to changes in the stop codon position. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis showed congruence with the individual gene sequence sets except for F and M2 genes. CONCLUSION: This is the first genomic characterization of HMPV genomes from African patients. Text: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is a single-stranded RNA virus in the family Paramyxoviridae and closely related to human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) [1] . HMPV causes respiratory disease similar to RSV, ranging from mild upper respiratory infection to bronchiolitis and pneumonia [2] . HMPV infections are seasonal and coinfection with other respiratory pathogens is common [1] . The HMPV genome is approximately 13 kb and comprises eight open reading frames (ORFs) encoding nucleoprotein (N), phosphoprotein (P), matrix protein (M), fusion glycoprotein (F), transcription enhancer protein (M2), small hydrophobic protein (SH), attachment glycoprotein (G), and large polymerase protein (L) [3] . The membrane glycoproteins F and G sequences are used to define two major genotypes or groups, A and B, which are further classified into four subgroups (A1, A2, B1, and B2). HMPV A2, the most frequently observed subgroup, is further divided into two proposed sub-lineages (A2a and A2b) [3] . HMPV is reported to have an important contribution to acute respiratory infections (ARI) in Africa. For instance, HMPV-associated hospitalization was estimated at 6.5 per 1000 person years in infants in Soweto, South Africa [4] ; at 4% in hospitalized children with severe ARI during a 2-year period in Cameroon [5] ; and in rural western Kenya, incidence of HMPV associated with ARI cases in outpatient clinic visits was estimated at 0.43 per 100 person-years among outpatients [6] . In Kilifi coastal Kenya, between January 2007 to December 2011, children under 6 months of age accounted for 44% of HMPV positive cases, while 74% were children under 1 year, and 1.3% (2/160) were children > 36 months [7] . In Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in Kenya, HMPV was detected in 5.7% hospitalizations, and virus-positive crude hospitalization rate (per 1000 children < 5 years old) was 4 for HMPV [8] . In Mali, contribution of HMPV to pneumonia had a population attributable fraction of 9% (95% CI: 7-11%) [9] ; while in Morocco [10] , 8 .9% of children < 5 years admitted with severe pneumonia were infected with HMPV. HMPV prevalence and incidence elsewhere globally, is indicated in Additional file 4: Table S1 . Of note is that the variations in incidence rates could be attributed to study population, seasonality and even detection methods. Nonetheless, genomic epidemiology of HMPV in Africa is inadequately reported, and comparison of genetic similarity and differences between African and global strains is not documented. Genome sequences provide valuable resources for characterizing viral evolution and disease epidemiology, and for identifying transmission events and outbreaks, which is not always possible with sub-genomic fragments [11] [12] [13] . The increased number of phylogenetically informative variant sites obtained from full genomes may allow better linking of cases and aid public health interventions in real time during epidemics [14, 15] . PCR approaches for targeted whole genome sequencing, in contrast to random amplification, can preferentially amplify the target virus over host or environmental nucleic acids [16, 17] potentially focusing sequencing on the virus of interest. To date, the largest dataset of HMPV whole genomes (n = 61) sequenced from any tropical country is from three Peruvian cities, Lima, Piura and Iquitos [18] . In Africa, apart from one metapneumovirus genome identified from a wild mountain gorilla in Rwanda (GenBank accession number HM197719), there are no HMPV genomes reported according to the NIAID Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR, http://www.viprbrc. org/, accessed April 30, 2019). This has led to limited understanding of the genetic and genomic diversity of HMPV in the continent. This work describes a whole genome sequencing (WGS) approach for HMPV from a small number of HMPV positive clinical samples collected at Kilifi County Hospital in Kilifi, Kenya and University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia. The genomes were generated by sequencing overlapping PCR amplicons spanning the entire genome. These are the first reported complete genome sequences of locally circulating HMPV strains obtained directly from clinical samples in Africa. We also combined the new genomes with publicly available sequences to examine patterns in global HMPV genetic diversity. Whole genome sequencing was successful for all 5 clinical samples that were attempted. A single genomic sequence was obtained from each sample, and the length of the 5 new HMPV genomes ranged from 13,097 to 13, 134 nt (> 95% length coverage). Sequencing and data assembly parameters, including coverage depth are shown in Table 1 . Sequence annotation of the full-length genomes using Geneious R8.1.5 (https://www.geneious.com) identified the expected eight coding ORFs and non-coding genomic regions. The overall nucleotide identity (i.e., identical sites averaging over all sequence pairs and excluding positions containing gaps) between all 143 genome sequences analyzed (5 new genomes plus 138 from ViPR) was 58.2%. Nucleotide sequence identity was 71.3% within HMPV-A and 80% within HMPV-B. Intrasubgroup, A1, A2, B1 and B2 genomes shared 92.1% (10 sequences), 76.8% (88 sequences), 91% (24 sequences) and 89.6% (21 sequences) amino acid sequence identity. For the 143 HMPV genomes, we checked sequence conservation at transcriptional control regions, at the termini of each gene, as well as the lengths of intergenic sequences between gene boundaries. The length of the F-M2 intergenic region was different between group A and B viruses, that is, 13 nt and 2 nt, respectively. The SH-G and G-L intergenic regions were the longest, up to 125 nt and to 190 nt, respectively. Consensus nucleotides (9 to 19 length) at the putative start and end regions flanking the ORF of the viral genes are shown in Fig. 1 . The gene-start and -end regions of N and P were conserved (> 90% average pairwise identity) in both HMPV groups, and the M2 and M gene-start and -end were also conserved in HMPV group A and B, respectively. The putative ATG start codon was consistently located at positions 14-16 upstream of a gene start motif (consensus: GG/AGAC/TAAA/GTnnnnATG), except for the internal M2-2. An additional ATG start codon upstream of the gene-start motif was observed in the SH gene for the B1 and B2 strains. In five of the eight annotated genes (N, P, F, M2, and G (B1 and B2 strains only)), the intergenic regions were short and the ORFs for these 5 genes terminated within the propositioned gene-end motifs. We combined the five genome sequences from Kenya and Zambia with available global sequences, aligned individual genes and calculated the percent nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) identity ( Table 2) . The coding sequences of N, M, F, M2-1, M2-2, and L genes were conserved at nucleotide and amino acid levels, by sharing > 85% between-subgroup nucleotide identity and 90% protein identity ( Table 3 ). The nucleoprotein gene was the most conserved among all subgroups at the nt and aa levels. SH and G glycoprotein genes were more divergent between the HMPV subgroups at the nucleotide level with 76 and 63% identity, respectively. The SH protein length was variable between group A and B strains due to a nucleotide substitution (CAA ➔ TAA) at gene position 532 in group B, resulting in protein lengths of 178 and 180 aa, respectively. The predicted G protein length also varied among the different HMPV subgroups, between 219 and 241 aa, due to different positions of the Stop codon. Amino acid sequence diversity for G and SH glycoproteins is depicted in Fig. 2 and Additional file 2: Figure S2 , respectively. The diversity of the complete nucleotide sequences of SH and G genes is depicted in phylogenetic trees in Fig. 3 . We evaluated phylogenetic classification and relationship between the 5 new genomes obtained in this study and previously published genomes (Fig. 3) . Full genome Figure S3 . There was phylogenetic congruence with the individual gene sequence sets as with the full genome dataset, except for F and M2 gene (Additional file 3: Figure S3 ). Variant or drifted viral strains may lower the sensitivity of detection resulting in a decreased quantitation of the viral load and underestimation of disease incidence [19] . We checked the new HMPV genomes for nucleotide differences in the genomic regions targeted by our diagnostic rRT-PCR primers and probes (Additional file 7: Table S4 ) used for HMPV detection. Up to eight primer-and probetemplate mismatches were identified (Fig. 4) : one mismatch in the forward primer region in HMPV group A (F gene-based rRT-PCR assay, Fig. 4a ); one mismatch in each of the forward and probe target regions in group B (F gene-based rRT-PCR assay, Fig. 4b) ; and 5 different mismatches with the N-gene based rRT-PCR assay (Fig. 4c) . Note, the F gene-based rRT-PCR assays are different or specific to the two HMPV groups. HMPV causes respiratory illness presenting as mild upper respiratory tract infection or life-threatening severe bronchiolitis and pneumonia primarily in children, sometimes adults as well as immunocompromised individuals [2] . However, HMPV genome sequence data from Africa is sparse and information on genome-wide diversity is limited. In the present study, the whole genome sequences of five HMPV strains from Kenya and Zambia were determined and compared with the genomes published previously from around the world. Comparative sequence analysis indicated fairly conserved positioning of the gene-start and -end regions as well as translational start and -end codons. Variation in genestart and -end sequences can have significant impact on transcription initiation and termination efficiency so that there is more selective pressure preventing changes in these regions [20] , and this likely explains our observation. The additional ATG start codon found upstream of the gene-start motif of the SH gene was consistent with a previous report [21] , though its role in gene expression is yet to be identified. These observed sequence conservation in N, M, F, M2-1, M2-2, and L genes is not unusual and is suggestive of functional and structural constraints on diversity, but less expected of the F gene because of its status as a neutralization and protective antigen, similar to its close 'relative' RSV [22] . It has also been suggested that the low diversity in F gene might make a substantial contribution to cross-neutralization and cross-protection between the HMPV subgroups [21] . The relatively high frequency of amino acid diversity in G (and to a lesser extent SH) could be attributable to selective pressure for amino acid change coming from host immunity; and the ability of the protein to tolerate substitutions, which might be due to its proposed extended, unfolded nature [22] . The phylogenetic incongruence observed between whole genome tree and the F and G gene trees, is as reported previously for HMPV [23] , and could be attributed to differential rates of evolution, selection pressure or past recombination events [24] . The prevalence of HMPV in hospitalized pediatric population in Kilifi county in coastal Kenya has been reported [7, 25] . However, it is notable that in recent years, HMPV has been detected at low prevalence in Kilifi (unpublished observations from hospital-based pneumonia surveillance). Whether this low prevalence is due to reduced virus transmission, or decreased sensitivity of our HMPV molecular diagnostic assay due to progressive primer/probe mismatches, is yet to be established. We present the first full genome sequences of circulating HMPV strains from sub-Saharan Africa. A limitation of our sequencing method, as is common with amplicon sequencing protocols [26, 27] , was absent coverage at the 3′ leader and 5′ trailer regions not captured by these primers. Our results demonstrate the application of amplicon sequencing to generate full length HMPV genomes directly from clinical samples. The observed diversity of the individual genes is comparable to that described previously [20] [21] [22] . This method and data provide a useful reference for design of local molecular diagnostics and for studies aimed at understanding HMPV epidemiology and evolution in Africa. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP) swab samples were collected from children (1-59 months) hospitalized with pneumonia, four of whom were enrolled in the PERCH study [18] in 2012. The fifth sample was collected from a child enrolled in the routine pneumonia surveillance study at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, in 2015. The samples were tested for HMPV by multiplex semi-quantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) assays. The rRT-PCR primers and probes used, cycling conditions and assay set up have been described elsewhere [28, 29] . Fusion (F) and glycoprotein (G) encoding genes of the HMPV positive samples were amplified in a one-step RT-PCR assay (OneStep RT-PCR kit, QIAGEN), as described previously [7] . Partial G or F nucleotide sequences were analyzed by maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees using IQ-TREE [30] , together with reference strains of HMPV subgroups (accession numbers AF371337.2, FJ168779, AY297749, AY530095, JN184401 and AY297748). Five HMPV positive samples from the Kenya and Zambia study sites, belonging to the A2a (n = 1), A2b (n = 2), B1 (n = 1) and B2 (n = 1) genetic subgroups based on their G and F gene sequences, were selected for whole genome sequencing. Data on age, sex and clinical assessment information collected at the time of sample collection, for the five selected samples, are shown in Table 3 . The sequencing protocol consisted of four steps as follows: (i) primer design, (ii) preparation of primer mixes, (iii) cDNA and PCR (iv) Illumina sequencing and data analysis. All human metapneumovirus (HMPV) full genome sequences were retrieved from GenBank (January 2018) using the query (txid162145 (Organism) AND 12000(SLEN): 14000(SLEN) NOT patent). Sequence entries with gaps larger than 6 nt were excluded to generate a set of yielding 178 genomes. All possible 23 nt sequences were generated from the genomes dataset and trimmed to a final calculated melting temperature (Tm) of 47.9-49.5°C. Sequences with homology to rRNA sequences, with GC content outside < 0.3 or > 0.75 or with a single nucleotide fractional content of > 0.6 were discarded. The primer set was then made nonredundant yielding 60,746 potential primers. All potential primers were mapped against the 178 HMPV full genomes and the number of perfect matches (frequency score) was determined as a measure of primer sequence conservation. To select primers, the HMPV genome sequences were divided into amplicons with 222 nt overlap spanning the virus genome. Potential primers that mapped within the terminal 5′ and 3′ 222 nt of each amplicon were identified and the sequence with the highest frequency score was selected, and primers mapping to the reverse bins were reverse complemented. In this manner, 24 primers were selected for each of the 4 HMPV genotype representative genomes (GenBank accession number HMPV A1: AF371337, HMPV A2: FJ168779; HMPV B1: AY525843, and HMPV B2: FJ168778). Because of conservation between genotypes, there was primer redundancy which was removed. The final set of 65 primer sequences, their lengths, calculated Tm, fractional GC content and mapping position on the HMPV genome are presented in Additional file 5: Table S2 . The primers were computationally tested against each of the 4 HMPV subgroups. A graphical representation of the primer target sites is presented in Additional file 1: Figure S1 . Amplification was performed in two reactions. To avoid generating small products from adjacent forward and reverse primers, amplicons were assigned to alternate Table 3 ). Bootstrap support values (evaluated by 1000 replicates) are indicated along the branches. Genetic subgroups A1, A2a, A2b, B1, and B2, are indicated. Multiple sequence alignment was done using MAFFT and the ML phylogeny inferred using GTR + Γ nucleotide substitution model and ultrafast bootstrap approximation in IQ-TREE. The genotype B2 Sabana strain sequence (GenBank accession number HM197719) reported from a wild mountain gorilla in Rwanda is marked in blue. The scaled bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site reactions, with reaction 1 containing primers for amplicons 1,3,5,7,9,11; reaction 2 containing primers for amplicons 2,4,6,8,10,12. Each reverse transcription used Forward Primer Mixes (FPMs) made with 3.0 μl of each reverse primer (100 pmol/μl) plus water to 200 μl to generate a primer concentration of 24 pmol/μl. Two microlitre of the FPM is then used in a 20 μl reverse transcription reaction (2.4 pmol/μl final concentration in reaction or 2.4 μM/primer). For PCR amplification, each amplicon reaction used a separate PCR Primer Mix (PPM) containing 1.5 μl of each 100 pmol/μl forward primer and 1.5 μl of each reverse primer (5.3-5.5 pmol/μl total primer in the PPM). 2 μl PPM was used per 25 μl PCR reaction = 0.5 pmol/μl in reaction (= 500 nM). Viral nucleic acids were extracted from the original samples using QIAamp Viral RNA Mini kit (QIAGEN). RNA (5 μl) was reverse transcribed into cDNA using SuperScript III (200 U, Invitrogen), RT buffer (1X final concentration, Invitrogen), and 2 μl of FPM in 20 μl reactions. An aliquot of cDNA (5 μl) was amplified in 35 cycles using Phusion Highfidelity PCR kit (New England Biolabs) and 2 μl of PPM in a 25 μl reaction. The PCR mixture was incubated at 98°C for 30 s, followed by 35 cycles of 98°C for 10 s, 43°C for 30 s, and 72°C for 90s and a final extension of 72°C for 10 min. Expected PCR products for each amplicon were approximately 1500 bp. PCR products from the two reactions for each sample were pooled for Illumina library preparation. Fig. 4 Mismatches between the rRT-PCR diagnostic primers and probes and their expected binding sites in the five genomes from Kenya and Zambia. 'Fwd primer' = Forward primer and 'Rev primer' = Reverse primer. Two rRT-PCR assays were used for HMPV detection. The colored bars in the figure indicate nucleotide differences (mismatches) between (a) three HMPV-A genomes and HMPV-A specific primers and probes targeting fusion gene, (b) two HMPV-B genomes and HMPV-B specific primers and probes also targeting fusion gene, and (c) all five genomes reported here and specific primers and probes targeting nucleoprotein gene. The sequences of the rRT-PCR primers and probes checked against the African HMPV genomes are listed in Additional file 7: Table S4 Illumina sequencing and data analysis Libraries were prepared using Nextera XT kit (Illumina) and pair-end sequencing (2 × 300 base pairs) with the MiSeq Reagent V3 kit (Illumina), following the manufacturer's instructions. The Nextera enzyme mix was used to simultaneously fragment input DNA and tag with universal adapters in a single tube reaction, followed by 12-cycle PCR reaction for dual indexing. Agencourt AMPure XP beads (Beckman Coulter) were used for all purification steps and libraries were quantified and quality-checked using the Qubit (Thermo Fisher) and Bioanalyzer (Agilent). Adapter trimming, quality filtering, kmer normalization of sequencing reads, de novo assembly, calculation of mean genome coverage was as previously described [31] . A dataset of HMPV genome sequences was retrieved from ViPR in order to infer relationship between HMPV viruses from Kenya and Zambia and viral populations sampled globally. The dataset included 138 sequence entries (> 13,000 nt) that included date (year) and location of sample Table S3 ). Sequence alignment was done using MAFFT v.7.221 [32] using the parameters 'localpair -maxiterate 1000'. IQ-TREE was used to infer maximum likelihood (ML) trees of the complete genome and individual genes under general time-reversible (GTR) substitution model with gamma-distributed among-site rate heterogeneity. A summary of the methodology outlined here is depicted in Fig. 5 .

What virus is closely related to the human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What is the result of increased eosinophilia?

Multimodal Imaging in an Unusual Cluster of Multiple Evanescent White Dot Syndrome https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5444036/ SHA: ee3cc22161595e877450737882a52950fd179672 Authors: Gal-Or, Orly; Priel, Ethan; Rosenblatt, Irit; Shulman, Shiri; Kramer, Michal Date: 2017-05-11 DOI: 10.1155/2017/7535320 License: cc-by Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To describe an unusual cluster of multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) encountered within a 3-month period. METHODS: This retrospective observation study is comprised of seven patients who presented with MEWDS in a 3-month period in central Israel. Data were collected from patients' medical records on clinical, multimodal imaging, and viral serology findings. RESULTS: Six women and one man of mean age 31.5 ± 7.2 years. Three reported a precedent viral infection. All had unilateral decreased vision. Funduscopy revealed foveal granularity. MAIN IMAGING FINDINGS: Hyperfluorescent spots on blue autofluorescence (BAF), hypofluorescent spots on indocyanine green angiography, dark lesions on infrared photos, and ellipsoid zone irregularities on spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Resolution of the spots on BAF correlated with anatomic (SD-OCT) and visual recovery. OCT angiography performed following the convalescence stage demonstrated intact retinal and choroidal flow. Serologic findings were inconclusive. CONCLUSION: We report a unique cluster of MEWDS patients presented in a short period of time. SD-OCT findings of ellipsoid zone disruption in combination with other multimodal imaging modalities are outlined meticulously. Recognizing these imaging features along with high index of clinical suspicion is important for the diagnosis of MEWDS. Serologic testing might be considered in future patients. Text: Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) was first described in 1984 as a rare, sudden onset of unilateral chorioretinopathy, with the predominant sign being multifocal yellow-white spots throughout the retina [1, 2] . The clinical spectrum of MEWDS has expanded over the years to include bilaterality and recurrences [3] or an atypical presentation involving the fovea without the white spots [4] . Symptoms include acute onset of decreased visual acuity unilaterally accompanied in most cases by photopsia and scotomata. A prodromal flu-like illness has been reported in up to 50% of cases [1] . One report described a patient with elevated levels of total serum IgG during the disease course and negative findings for IgM to herpes zoster, herpes simplex, mumps, and measles [5] . Although MEWDS is suspected to occur as a consequence of a viral-like infection in genetically susceptible individuals, its precise pathogenesis remains unknown. Recovery is gradual, over weeks to months, and the visual prognosis is very favorable [2] . Treatment is usually not required. The incidence of MEWDS is unknown. Only small case series are reported in the literature [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] . One of the largest described 34 affected patients reviewed over several years' period [1, 13, 14] . The aim of the present report was to describe an unusual cluster of seven cases of MEWDS encountered within a 3month period, with an emphasis on the clinical presentation and multimodal imaging findings. The cluster prompted us to seek a common infectious association. A retrospective observational study was conducted in seven patients who presented with MEWDS between July and September 2013 at two tertiary medical centers in central Israel. Data on background, clinical, and laboratory parameters were collected from the medical files. The study was approved by the institutional ethics review board. All patients underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination and multimodal imaging tests, including blue autofluorescence (BAF), fluorescein angiography (FA) and/ or indocyanine green angiography (ICGA), infrared (IR) photography, and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Images were acquired with the HRA-2 and the Spectralis HRA + OCT devices (Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) at the following wavelengths: BAFexcitation 488 nm, barrier cut-off 496 nm; IR-820 nm; ICGA-excitation 790 nm, emission 800 nm; and SD-OCTsuperluminescent diode light source 870 nm. The volume scan option was used to acquire the multiple SD-OCT scans (25-49 horizontal scans over a 6 mm region covering the area of pathology). Precise registration between findings seen on IR or BAF and SD-OCT was enabled by the dual-beam laser eye-tracking system, where one laser is used to image the retina and the other laser to perform the OCT scans. Accurate rescanning in areas of interest was ensured by the Spectralis follow-up function which automatically places subsequent scans on the same location as the previous ones. OCT angiography images were acquired using the RTVue XR Avanti with AngioVue (Optovue Inc., Fremont, California, USA), with an A-scan-rate of 70 000 scans per second, a light source of 840 nm, and a bandwidth of 45 nm. Macular cubes (3 × 3 mm) were acquired, each cube consisting of 304 clusters of 2 repeated B-scans containing 304 A-scans each. Split-spectrum amplitude decorrelation technology was employed to improve the signal-to-noise ratio by splitting the spectrum to generate multiple repeat OCT frames from 2 original repeat OCT frames [15] . Motion correction was performed using registration of 2 orthogonally captured imaging volumes. Automatic segmentation of the retinal layers was performed by the viewing software and was used to generate en face projection images after adjusting the level of the segmented layer on the B-scans. Serology testing was performed for viruses commonly present at the time of the patients' presentation, namely, immunoglobulin IgG and IgM for herpes simplex virus (HSV) I-II, varicella zoster virus (VZV), West Nile virus, coxsackievirus, echovirus (subgroup of enterovirus), and corona virus. Findings. There were one male and six female patients of mean age 31.5 ± 7.2 years (range 22-41 years). Table 1 summarizes the demographic data. Three patients reported a prodromal virus infection. All patients presented with acute onset of unilateral decreased vision. The best corrected visual acuity at presentation ranged from 6/9 to 6/30 in the affected eye. None of the patients had signs of anterior or vitreous inflammation in the affected eye. Funduscopic findings at presentation included foveal granularity in six patients; in four patients (patients 1, 4, 5, and 6), it was the sole pathologic retinal finding ( Figure 1 ); and in three patients (patients 2, 3, and 7), foveal granularity was associated with faint white retinal lesions (Figure 2 ), located mainly in the midperipheral retina extending to the periphery. Patient 6 had a swollen disc and mild signs of optic neuropathy (mild red desaturation, enlarged blind spot on visual field). Patient 6 underwent neurological evaluation due to initial presentation mimicking optic neuritis. Neurological evaluation including full neurological exam and neuroimaging excluded additional neurological deficit, before the diagnosis of MEWDS was established. The clinical findings are summarized in Table 2. 3.2. Multimodal Imaging Findings. Patients who underwent imaging less than 2 weeks from onset of symptoms had the most typical findings. BAF revealed hyperautofluorescent lesions in the macula between and along the arcades in four patients (patients 1, 3, 6, and 7). IR photos showed dark lesions in similar, though not identical, locations ( Figure 3 ). Patients 1 and 6, who underwent ICGA, had hypofluorescent lesions in numbers typically exceeding those detected by both clinical and other imaging modalities. B-scan SD-OCT through the fovea showed a disrupted inner segment ellipsoid zone band of varied severity in all 7 affected eyes. The ellipsoid zone hyper reflective band on SD-OCT anatomically correlates to photoreceptors' inner segment, ellipsoid section densely packed with mitochondria [16] . The transient disruption of the foveal ellipsoid zone on SD-OCT corresponded to the clinically apparent foveal granularity. In patient 5, who presented with sole retinal finding of foveal granularity and mild optic disc leakage on FA, the SD-OCT finding of ellipsoid zone disruption was the main sign for diagnosis MEWDS (Figure 1 ). Foveal hyperreflectivity found in 3 patients (patients 1, 4, and 7) was noted extending into the inner retinal layers (Figure 4 ). The lesions identified on the BAF, IR, and ICGA images corresponded to the areas of disruption of the ellipsoid zone, on the SD-OCT scans ( Figure 3 ). FA demonstrated nonspecific early punctate hyperfluorescent lesions, with slight staining during the early phase, in four patients (patients 2, 3, 6, and 7). These lesions did not correspond to the findings by either the clinical or other imaging modalities. No pathology was noted in the foveal area despite the presence of typical foveal granularity. Mild optic disc leakage was evident in four patients (patients 1, 4, 5, and 6). During the course of the disease, the hyperautofluorescent areas decreased in number and faded without leaving hypoautofluorescent abnormalities. The resolution of the BAF lesions corresponded to the anatomic recovery observed on SD-OCT. The foveal hyperreflectivity disappeared as well ( Figure 5 ). Figure 6 . Four patients (patients 1, 4, 6, and 7) underwent serological testing with negative results except for a common result of elevated titer of IgG to VZV. After 6 months of follow-up, the best corrected visual acuity ranged from 6/6 to 6/6.6 ( Table 2 ). Although MEDWS is traditionally considered as a rare syndrome [2] , we report an unusual cluster of seven patients who presented within a three-month period. All patients were otherwise healthy, and all presented with decreased vision in one eye. This cluster of cases could break to some measure the statistical improbability of the rarity of the disease. The atypical presentation in most of our patients could suggest that MEWDS is underdiagnosed. However, it may be in line with the speculation that sometimes atypical findings may simply reflect the moment in time in which the patients were examined and are not a true atypical presentation [4] . In its original description by Jampol et al. [2] , MEWDS cases were unilateral with fundus presentation including numerous white dots scattered in the posterior pole and beyond the arcades. During the disease course, granularity appearance of the macula develops in most cases and, when seen, determines the diagnosis. The number of white spots is very variable, and in fact, they may be absent. Given that characteristic white dots were not present in four patients (patients 1, 4, 5, and 6), we were guided by other fundus features, in particular foveal granularity, symptoms, multimodal imaging, and clinical course. While the presumed pathogenesis of MEWDS involves a viral infection, only few reports to date have described a search for the pathogen [5, [17] [18] [19] . The present cluster of cases provided us with a unique opportunity to seek a common viral denominator. Serological testing yielded only an elevated titer of IgG to VZV, most often an indicative of past VZV infection or vaccination; thus, we could not make any generalization regarding these findings. Multimodal imaging (BAF, SD-OCT, IR, FA, and ICGA) has proven to have high value in the challenging diagnosis of MEWDS. Most of the findings noted here have been described separately in earlier reports [7-9, 11, 12] . However, the present study offered two important advantages. We were able to examine all patients with simultaneously acquired imaging, and multiple correlations between the imaging findings and the clinical evaluation were possible. Moreover, the relatively large size of the cohort and the repeated scans allowed us to verify the imaging findings in this rare disease. We observed corresponding locations of the dark spots on IR images, the hyperautofluorescent spots on the BAF images, and the foci of outer retinal pathology on SD-OCT images. Small hyperreflective points, located in the ganglion cell layer, the ellipsoid zone, and the choriocapillaris, have been noted and described on "en face" EDI SD-OCT [20] . However, we noted a unique finding of foveal hyperreflectivity extending into the inner retinal layers. Our finding reinforces a recently described finding in the literature [14] which is believed to be pathognomonic to MEWDS. During the disease course, both the IR and the BAF findings faded in concurrence with the anatomical resolution of the disruption in the ellipsoid zone and the foveal hyperreflective lesion on SD-OCT. Thus, IR images may provide an easy, widely available imaging modality for follow-up of patients with MEWDS. Although IR autofluorescent changes were recently described in patients with MEWDS [21, 22] , this modality is not widely available, whereas IR imaging is routinely performed. Furthermore, on the basis of our findings with multimodal imaging, we suggest that the diagnosis of MEWDS can be established with the simultaneous use of such noninvasive techniques as BAF, IR, and SD-OCT. ICGA and FA may be reserved for secondary use, when findings are equivocal. OCTA is relatively new noninvasive imaging modality that demonstrates flow characteristics of the vascular network within the regional circulation to construct noninvasive images of the vascular network. En face images generated by OCTA also allow us to study the spatial relationships between vasculature and adjacent retinal/choroidal layers with greater precision than dye angiography, and OCTA findings demonstrated no flow impairment in the retinal and choroidal vasculature of the patients scanned after convalescence stage. We cannot overestimate the role of multimodal imaging in these patients, since not too often, the diagnosis is mistaken for optic neuritis, and clinical findings are very subtle. Limitations of the study were the variability in time from disease onset to serologic testing, making the IgM results hard to interpret. Therefore, we consider these tests inconclusive. Secondly, not all the patients had imaging with all modalities. In addition, future research is required using OCT angiography to study the nature of the dots in MEWDS patients and its correlation to other multimodal imaging modalities in the acute and convalescent stage. In conclusion, we present a large unique cluster of patients who presented with MEWDS over a short period Figure 6 : OCTA images following convalescence stage of patients 7's right eye (a-b) and 6's left eye (c-d). The green and red lines represent the x and y axes. Patient 7 after recurrent episodes. 3 × 3 mm OCT angiogram of the choriocapillaris (a1), superficial layer (a2), and deep layer (a3) centered at the macula without any flow compromise. Corresponding x-axis OCT structural B-scan (b1) simultaneously obtained during the same scan as the OCT angiogram with flow overlay at the cross-section demonstrated by the green line in (a1). SD-OCT (b2) demonstrating normal anatomy of the outer retina 6 months after the first acute episode. Patient 6, 3× 3 mm OCT angiogram of the choriocapillaris (c1), superficial layer (c2), and deep layer (c3) centered at the macula without any flow compromise. 3 × 3 mm en face structural OCT (d1) of the choriocapillaris centered at the macula as in c1. This image was simultaneously obtained during the same scan as the OCT angiogram in (c). En face structural OCT of the deep (d2) and outer retina (d3). of time. To the best of our knowledge, such a cluster was not previously reported in the literature nor encountered by us at different seasons. The diagnosis was supported by the presence of key features of foveal granularity and disruption of the ellipsoid zone on OCT and their correlation with the hyperautofluorescent lesions identified on BAF. Attention should also be addressed to the dark spots demonstrated on IR images, which may serve as an additional diagnostic clue provided by a noninvasive imaging modality. The disease course in our patients was typical for MEWDS, with almost complete recovery of visual acuity. The specific pathogenesis of MEWDS is unknown but is believed to be an inflammatory condition following a viral infection. We suggest continued serological testing in patients who meet the clinical criteria. The clinical signs of MEWDS are subtle, such that the diagnosis relies on a high index of suspicion. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

What types of viruses can be diagnosed through serological testing?

Screening of FDA-Approved Drugs for Inhibitors of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Infection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5640845/ SHA: 1bd2f6497996fc0fccd8dffd7f84846d3d36f964 Authors: Wang, Shaobo; Liu, Yang; Guo, Jiao; Wang, Peilin; Zhang, Leike; Xiao, Gengfu; Wang, Wei Date: 2017-10-13 DOI: 10.1128/jvi.01055-17 License: cc-by Abstract: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), an arthropod-borne flavivirus, is a major cause of acute viral encephalitis in humans. No approved drug is available for the specific treatment of JEV infections, and the available vaccines are not effective against all clinical JEV isolates. In the study described here, a high-throughput screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV was performed. Five hit drugs that inhibited JEV infection with a selective index of >10 were identified. The antiviral activities of these five hit drugs against other flavivirus, including Zika virus, were also validated. As three of the five hit drugs were calcium inhibitors, additional types of calcium inhibitors that confirmed that calcium is essential for JEV infection, most likely during viral replication, were utilized. Adaptive mutant analysis uncovered that replacement of Q130, located in transmembrane domain 3 of the nonstructural NS4B protein, which is relatively conserved in flaviviruses, with R or K conferred JEV resistance to manidipine, a voltage-gated Ca(2+) channel (VGCC) inhibitor, without an apparent loss of the viral growth profile. Furthermore, manidipine was indicated to protect mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain, while it abrogated the histopathological changes associated with JEV infection. This study provides five antiflavivirus candidates and identifies cytoplasmic calcium to be a novel antiviral target for the treatment of JEV infection. The findings reported here provide therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. IMPORTANCE No approved therapy for the treatment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection is currently available. Repurposing of approved drugs would accelerate the development of a therapeutic stratagem. In this study, we screened a library of FDA-approved drugs and identified five hit drugs, especially calcium inhibitors, exerting antiflavivirus activity that blocked viral replication. The in vivo efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were investigated with a mouse model of JEV infection, and the viral target was identified by generating an adaptive mutant. Text: F laviviruses are taxonomically classified in the genus Flavivirus and family Flaviviridae. These viruses comprise over 70 different pathogens, such as Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus (DENV), West Nile virus (WNV), and yellow fever virus (YFV). Most flaviviruses are arthropod borne and cause public health problems worldwide (1) . The development and usage of vaccines against some flaviviruses, such as JEV, YFV, and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), have decreased the rates of morbidity and mortality from infections caused by these viruses (2) ; however, flavivirus-induced diseases are still pandemic, and few therapies beyond intensive supportive care are currently available. Flaviviruses have an approximately 11-kb positive-stranded RNA genome containing a single open reading frame (ORF) flanked by untranslated regions (UTRs) at both termini. The ORF encodes three structural proteins, including the capsid (C), membrane (premembrane [prM] and membrane [M] ), and envelope (E), and seven nonstructural proteins (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) (3) . These seven nonstructural proteins participate in viral replication, virion assembly, and virus escape from immune surveillance. To date, no specific antivirals with activity against flaviviruses are available. To address this, we conducted a screen of a library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs. Since flaviviruses are similar in structure and pathogenesis, we first utilized JEV as the prototype to screen the drug library and subsequently validated the antiviral activities with ZIKV, WNV, and DENV type 2 (DENV-2). The hit drugs identified in this study offer potential new therapies for the treatment of flavivirus infection and disease. Screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV infection. Recombinant viral particles (RVPs) with the luciferase-reporting replicon enveloped by the JEV structural proteins were used to select inhibitors, with a focus on those that inhibit virus entry and replication, by a high-throughput screening (HTS) assay (4, 5) . The number of genomic RNA copies of RVP was determined to be 8.4 ϫ 10 6 copies/ml by using a standard curve generated with plasmids carrying the infectious clone. The HTS assay conditions, including the seeding cell density and RVP dose, were optimized to be 10,000 cells per 96-well plate and 20 l (16 copies/cell) RVP for the infective dose, respectively. Under the optimized conditions, the signal-to-basal (S/B) ratio, coefficient of variation (CV), and Z= factor were 38,374, 2.8%, and 0.89, respectively, which demonstrated that the assay was robust and suitable for the large-scale screening of compounds. A schematic of the HTS assay is depicted in Fig. 1B . After three rounds of screening, five hits with a selective index (SI; which is equal to the 50% cytotoxic concentration [CC 50 [/50% inhibitory concentration [IC 50 ]) of Ͼ10 were selected. The CC 50 values of the hit drugs exhibited in Fig. 1B were similar to those previously published for diverse cell systems but determined using different toxicity assays (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) . Three of the hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were dihydropyridine (DHP) voltage-gated Ca 2ϩ channel (VGCC) antagonists, while pimecrolimus is an inhibitor of inflammatory cytokine secretion and nelfinavir mesylate is an HIV-1 protease blocker. All five drugs exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV RVP infection (Fig. 1C) . To validate the antiviral effect, hit drugs were purchased from other commercial sources and tested. In the reconfirmation screen, all hit drugs showed antiviral and cytotoxic effects similar to those found in the primary screen. Validation of hit drugs. To verify the results obtained by the luciferase reporter assays, we also investigated the antiviral effect of the five hit drugs on wild-type JEV strain AT31. As expected from the HTS assay, all five drugs robustly inhibited virus production, with a reduction of approximately 4 to 5 log units at the highest concentration and an approximately 1-log-unit decrease with 2.5 M the drugs (Fig. 2B) . A sharp decrease in JEV RNA levels was also detected (Fig. 2C) . The attenuated RNA levels in the high-dose, middle-dose, and low-dose groups were all above 40%. In particular, in the manidipine-treated group, the inhibitory effect was at least 80% compared to that for the control, which showed a strong inhibition of viral replication. Consistent with the inhibition of virus replication and production, expression of the viral structural protein prM was hardly detectable following treatment with the drugs at the high concentration (Fig. 2D) . Overall, the results in Fig. 2 confirmed that the five hit drugs inhibited JEV infection in a dose-dependent manner in vitro. Drugs inhibit JEV infection during viral RNA synthesis. Because RVPs, which have a natural virus-like envelope on the outside and a replicon on the inside, permitted the quantification of JEV productive entry and replication, a time-of-addition experiment was performed to investigate whether the hit drugs blocked the entry step or the replication step. As shown in Fig. 3B , no suppression of luciferase activity by any of the hit drugs was observed when they were used as treatments before infection or during infection or as a virucide, suggesting that these drugs do not inhibit JEV infection either by inactivating the virus directly or by blocking JEV entry. However, these drugs exerted fully inhibitory effects when they were added at 1 h postinfection, suggesting that viral replication was the stage at which these drugs showed inhibitory activity. To confirm this suggestion, we investigated the inhibitory effects of these drugs on the JEV replicon. The highest concentration of manidipine and nelfinavir mesylate tested in baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cells was adjusted to 5 M and 10 M, respectively. It was shown that all five drugs inhibited JEV RNA synthesis in a dosedependent manner, while neither drug inhibited the initial translation of replicon RNA (5, 14) (Fig. 3C) , confirming that these drugs inhibited JEV infection at the stage of replication. Hit drugs exhibit broad-spectrum antiflavivirus activity. In order to determine whether the antiviral activity of the five hit drugs extended to other flaviviruses, we explored their antiviral effect against ZIKV. Similar to the findings for JEV, the ZIKV titer was decreased by multiple log units when ZIKV was treated with a high concentration of each of the drugs (Fig. 4A) . Moreover, ZIKV exhibited a higher sensitivity to the two calcium channels inhibitors manidipine and cilnidipine than JEV, with no plaque formation being observed at 10 M. Consistent with this result, sharp decreases in the level of replication of ZIKV RNA and the level of expression of viral protein were also detected (Fig. 4A) . Notably, treatment with 5 M manidipine produced a 95% inhibition of viral replication, translation, and viral yields. Taken together, these results indicate that the hit drugs could effectively inhibit ZIKV infection. Since these drugs exhibited their anti-JEV effects at the stage of viral replication, we further tested the effects against WNV and DENV-2 by using WNV and DENV-2 replicons. Similar to the results for JEV, a dose-dependent reduction in the level of WNV replication was observed with the drug treatments. The same phenotype was observed for DENV-2 for all drugs except nelfinavir mesylate, which showed no effect at the concentrations tested ( Fig. 4B and C). Together, these results indicate that the five hit drugs are excellent candidates for broad-spectrum antiflavivirus treatment. Antiviral effect of calcium inhibitors. Since three hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were DHP VGCC inhibitors, we asked whether other calcium antagonists could block JEV infection. To address this question, we employed four different classes of inhibitors. Verapamil, a prototype phenylalkylamine (PAA) VGCC inhibitor (15) , exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV on both African Green monkey kidney (Vero) and human hepatocellular carcinoma (Huh-7) cells (Fig. 5) , which was consistent with the inhibitory effects of the DHP inhibitors, suggesting that calcium channels play an important role in JEV infection. Cyclosporine and 2-aminobiphenyl borate (2-APB), which inhibit the efflux of Ca 2ϩ from the mitochondrial and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) pool, respectively (16) (17) (18) (19) , were also found to block JEV infection effectively. Similarly, treatment with the cell-permeant Ca 2ϩ chelator 1,2-bis-(o-aminophenoxy)-ethane-N,N,N=,N=-tetraacetic acid, tetraacetoxymethyl ester (BAPTA-AM), could also suppress JEV infection. Taken together, we concluded that intracellular Ca 2ϩ is essential for JEV infection and cytoplasmic calcium is a potent target for antiflavivirus treatment. Selection and characterization of manidipine-resistant JEV. To identify the viral target of the calcium channel inhibitor, we selected a manidipine-resistant virus by serially passaging JEV in the presence of manidipine. Viruses from passage 20 (P20) showed robust resistance compared with the wild type (WT) (Fig. 6A ). When JEV from P20 was treated with 5 M or 10 M manidipine, the viral titer was about 10-and 100-fold higher than that of the WT, respectively. Individual virus clones were isolated, and two isolates were randomly selected and amplified. An amino acid substitution was observed in two isolated clones, resulting in a glutamine (Q)-to-arginine (R) switch at amino acid position 130 in transmembrane domain 3 (TMD3) of NS4B, i.e., position 2401 of the translated polyprotein in the JEV infectious cDNA clone (Fig. 6B ). Sequence alignment of NS4B indicated that Q130 was conserved in all flaviviruses except YFV, which possessed a lysine at that position (Fig. 6B) . The conserved Q130 of NS4B may account for the sensitivity of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2 to manidipine, as described above (Fig. 4) , while YFV showed resistance to the drug (data not shown). To confirm that the Q130R mutation did confer manidipine resistance and to investigate the role of Q130 in NS4B function, we produced JEV clones with the Q130R, Q130K, Q130E, or Q130A mutation by introducing the desired mutations into the infectious cDNA clone and rescuing the mutant viruses. To investigate the biological properties of the mutant viruses, we first examined the growth kinetics of the rescued viruses. As shown in Fig. 6C , all mutant viruses had an accumulation of infectious virions and reached the highest titer at 60 h postinfection. Infection of the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses resulted in growth curves similar to the growth curve for the WT (Fig. 6C) , while the Q130E and Q130A mutants produced smaller amounts of viruses between 24 and 60 h. Analysis of the plaque morphology revealed that the plaques of the Q130R, Q130K, and Q130E mutants were similar to the plaques of the WT, whereas the plaques of the Q130A mutant were smaller than those of the WT. We next investigated the sensitivity of the four mutant viruses to manidipine. As shown in Fig. 6D , the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine. At a 10 M concentration, manidipine efficiently inhibited WT JEV infection and reduced the viral yields by approximately 4 log units, while the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine and the viral titer decreased less than 2 log units. The Q130A mutant virus demonstrated moderate resistance and a slightly higher Taken together, it could be concluded that Q130 not only is critical for conferring manidipine sensitivity but also is important for JEV replication. The replacement of glutamine with basic amino acids conferred resistance to manidipine without an apparent loss of growth. In vivo efficacy of manidipine. As manidipine exhibited the strongest inhibitory activities on JEV replication as well as ZIKV infection when its activities were compared with those of the five hit drugs (Fig. 2 and 4A) , we further examined the protective effect of manidipine against JEV-induced lethality in a mouse model. As anticipated, mice in the JEV-infected vehicle-treated group started to show symptoms, including limb paralysis, restriction of movement, piloerection, body stiffening, and whole-body tremor, from day 5 postinfection. Within 21 days postinfection, most mice in the JEV-infected group succumbed to the infection, with the mortality rate being 73% (4 out of 15 animals survived). Manidipine treatment following JEV infection reduced the mortality rate to 20% (12 out of 15 animals survived) (Fig. 7A ). Mice treated with manidipine alone or treated with manidipine and infected with JEV showed little abnormal behavior, similar to the findings for the mice in the vehicle-treated group. These results suggest that manidipine provided effective protection against JEVinduced mortality. To further relate these protective effects to the viral load and histopathological changes in the mouse brains, the viral titer was determined and mouse brain sections were collected and assayed at day 5 and day 21 postinfection, since mice started to show symptoms of JEV infection from day 5 postinfection and most of the surviving mice had recovered at day 21. The results indicated that, during the progression of the disease, manidipine treatment significantly reduced the viral load in infected mice compared to that in infected mice not receiving treatment, while no plaques formed in either the manidipine-or vehicle-treated group, and viral loads were undetectable in each group on day 21 postinfection (Fig. 7B) . As JEV was rapidly cleared from the blood after inoculation and was present in the lymphatic system during the preclinical phase, the effects of manidipine on infection of serum and the spleen were evaluated at earlier time points to detect whether the drug reduced the peripheral viral loads (20, 21) . As shown in Fig. 7C , manidipine had little effect on peripheral JEV infection, which indicated that manidipine protected the mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain. Similarly, apparent damage in the brain, including meningitis, perivascular cuffing, vacuolar degeneration, and glial nodules, was observed in the JEV-infected and vehicle-treated group on day 5 postinfection, while manidipine treatment remarkably alleviated these phenomena (Fig. 7D) . These results indicate that the alleviation of histopathological changes was accompanied by a reduction in the viral load as well as a reduction in the rate of mortality, further confirming the curative effects of manidipine on viral encephalitis. Among the five hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride were VGCC inhibitors. It has been well documented in the literature that Ca 2ϩ inhibitors serve to inhibit virus infection at the stage of either entry (15, 22) or replication (18) and even at the stage of budding (23) . To this end, we first reviewed all 21 calcium inhibitors included in the current library of FDA-approved drugs and found that, in addition to the four DHP VGCC inhibitors listed in Fig. 1B , two other calcium inhibitors, i.e., flunarizine dihydrochloride and lomerizine hydrochloride, were also identified to be primary candidates with levels of inhibition of Ͼ90%. Similarly, three calcium channel antagonists, nisoldipine, felodipine, and nicardipine hydrochloride, showed levels of inhibition of 75%, 72%, and 66%, respectively, in the primary screen. Together, 9 of the 21 calcium inhibitors in the library, accounting for nearly half of the calcium inhibitors, exhibited levels of flavivirus inhibition of greater than 50%, suggesting that calcium, especially the calcium channel, is a potential antiviral target. To address this, another type of VGCC inhibitor, verapamil, an FDA-approved drug not yet included in the drug library used in this study, was investigated. Likewise, a Ca 2ϩ chelator, BAPTA-AM, as well as the Ca 2ϩ inhibitors 2-APB and cyclosporine, targeting ER and the mitochondrial Ca 2ϩ channel, respectively, were employed to investigate the response of JEV infection to the decrease in intracellular Ca 2ϩ levels. In line with the activities of the three hit DHP VGCC inhibitor drugs, the additional Ca 2ϩ inhibitors exerted anti-JEV activity, which indicated that Ca 2ϩ is indispensable for JEV infection. Thus, Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might be utilized as effective treatments for flavivirus infection. As the hit drugs exerted full inhibitory activity when they were added posttreatment, we believe that Ca 2ϩ is important for flavivirus genome replication. Furthermore, selection and genetic analysis of drug-resistant viruses revealed that NS4B is the viral target of manidipine. NS4B is part of the viral replication complex and is supposed to anchor the viral replicase to the ER membrane (24) . Meanwhile, the N-terminal 125amino-acid domain of DENV NS4B was indicated to be responsible for inhibition of the immune response (25) . Notably, several structurally distinct compounds have been identified to inhibit flavivirus replication by intensively targeting the TMD of NS4B (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) . It is thus conceivable that inhibitors targeting TMD of NS4B would perturb its function, leading to the suppression of viral RNA replication. In this study, the replacement of Q130 of NS4B with a basic amino acid conferred the resistance effect without suppressing JEV replication, suggesting that position 130 could tolerate a basic amino acid and that the basic amino acid might be involved in the interplay of NS4B with host proteins rather than viral proteins. Moreover, the efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were monitored in vivo, with manidipine demonstrating effective antiviral activity with favorable biocompatibility. However, the dose used in this study was higher than the dose typically used clinically, representing one of the scenarios most commonly encountered in drug repurposing (33, 34) . As manidipine was approved for use for the long-term treatment of hypertension (35, 36) , pulse-dose treatment with manidipine over the shorter period of time required for the treatment of virus infection might be relatively safe. Moreover, use of a combination of manidipine with other Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might improve its therapeutic efficacy, reduce its toxicity, and reduce the risk of resistance development (37) (38) (39) . Besides the three VGCC inhibitors, two hit drugs, pimecrolimus and nelfinavir mesylate, showed equivalent inhibitory activities on the replication of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2. Although there has been no report on the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of infectious diseases, we showed that it had a robust effect against JEV with an SI of Ͼ32. The maximum plasma concentration (C max ) of nelfinavir mesylate achieved with an adult dose was 3 to 4 g/ml (40) , which was comparable to the IC 50 reported here. Notably, nelfinavir mesylate was confirmed to inhibit herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and the replication of several other herpesviruses by interfering directly or indirectly with the later steps of virus formation, such as glycoprotein maturation or virion release, other than functioning in herpesviruses protease (41, 42) . Whether nelfinavir mesylate inhibits flavivirus by interference with the virus protease or by other off-target effects is unknown. Understanding of the mechanism of the antiflavivirus effects of these drugs might uncover novel targets of the drugs, providing further insight into the pathogenesis of flaviviruses. Above all, the findings reported here provide novel insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying flavivirus infection and offer new and promising therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. Cells and viruses. BHK-21, SH-SY5Y (human neuroblastoma), Vero, and Huh-7 cells were cultured in Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (HyClone, Logan, UT, USA) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (Gibco, Grand Island, NY, USA). JEV strain AT31, the WNV replicon, and the DENV-2 replicon expressing Renilla luciferase (Rluc) were kindly provided by Bo Zhang, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China. JEV replicon recombinant viral particles (RVPs) were generated as previously described (4, 5) . ZIKV strain H/PF/2013, kindly provided by the European Virus Archive Goes Global, was propagated and titrated in Vero cells. Optimization of HTS assay conditions. The cell density and RVP dose were optimized for the HTS assay. Vero cells at different densities (2,500 to 12,500 cells per well) were infected with from 1.25 to 20 l RVPs (1 to 16 copies per well). The appropriate cell density as well as the RVP dose was selected by comparing the S/B ratio, CV, and Z= values under different conditions as previously described (43) . Methyl-␤-cyclodextrin and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) were used as positive and negative controls, respectively. HTS assay of an FDA-approved compound library. A library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs was purchased from Selleck Chemicals (Houston, TX, USA). The compounds were stored as 10 mM stock solutions in DMSO at 4°C until use. The first round of the HTS assay was carried out as shown in Fig. 1A . The criteria used to identify the primary candidates were no apparent cytotoxicity and an average level of inhibition of Ͼ90% in duplicate wells. The criteria of dose-dependent inhibition and cell viability of Ͼ80% were applied for the reconfirmation screen. Furthermore, the CC 50 of each compound was calculated, and those compounds displaying SIs over 10 were considered hits in this study. Identification of antiviral effects of five hit drugs. The antiviral effects of the drugs were evaluated by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR), immunofluorescence assay (IFA), and plaque assay as previously reported (44) (45) (46) (47) . The experimental timeline is depicted in Fig. 2A . To ensure the effectiveness of the hit drugs in flavivirus replication, BHK-21 cells transfected with the JEV, WNV, or DENV-2 replicon were incubated with each drug at the concentrations indicated above, and the luciferase activities were determined 24 h, 48 h, or 72 h later, respectively. Time-of-addition experiment. To evaluate which stage of the JEV life cycle was inhibited by each hit, a time-of-addition experiment was performed as previously described (43) . Vero cells were infected with 20 l RVPs for 1 h (0 to 1 h). The test compounds were incubated with the cells for 1 h before infection (Ϫ1 to 0 h), during infection (0 to 1 h), and for 23 h postinfection (1 to 24 h) (Fig. 3A) . To exclude a possible direct inactivating effect of the drugs, RVPs were incubated with each drug at 37°C for 1 h, and the mixtures were diluted 25-fold to infect Vero cells. Twenty-four hours later, the luciferase activities were determined as described above (Fig. 3A) . Manidipine-resistant virus. Manidipine-resistant virus was generated by passaging of JEV on Vero cells in the presence of manidipine. Passages 1 to 10 used 5 M manidipine, and passages 11 to 20 used 10 M manidipine. As a control, WT virus was passaged in the presence of 2% DMSO in parallel. Passaging was terminated at passage 20, when no further improvement in resistance was detected. Two manidipine-resistant virus isolates were plaque purified and amplified in the presence of manidipine. Viral RNA was extracted, amplified, and purified for sequencing. An infectious cDNA clone of JEV, strain AT31 (pMWJEAT), kindly provided by T. Wakita, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neuroscience, was used to recover WT and mutant viruses as described previously (4) . Virus titers and manidipine sensitivities were determined by plaque assay in Vero cells. Manidipine administration to JEV-infected mice. Adult female BALB/c mice (age, 4 weeks) were kept in the Laboratory Animal Center of Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China). The mice were randomly divided into four groups (30 mice per group): a JEV-infected and vehicle (2% Tween 80 plus 5% DMSO in phosphate-buffered saline [PBS])-treated group, a manidipine-treated group, a JEV-infected and manidipine-treated group, and a vehicle-treated group. For infection, mice were infected intraperitoneally with 5 ϫ 10 6 PFU of JEV strain AT31. For the manidipine and vehicle treatments, mice were injected intraperitoneally with 25 mg/kg of body weight manidipine or PBS with 2% Tween 80 and 5% DMSO, respectively. Treatments were administered twice a day for the first 2 days and then consecutively administered once a day for up to 21 days. Five mice from each group were sacrificed on days 1, 3, and 5 postinfection. Serum, spleen tissue, and brain tissue samples were collected for viral titer determination and histopathology investigation. Fifteen mice were monitored daily for morbidity and mortality. The mice that showed neurological signs of disease were euthanized according to the Regulations for the Administration of Affairs Concerning Experimental Animals in China. The protocols were reviewed and approved by the Laboratory Animal Care and Use Committee at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China).

What is the size of a flavivirus?

Interactome analysis of the lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus nucleoprotein in infected cells reveals ATPase Na(+)/K(+) transporting subunit Alpha 1 and prohibitin as host-cell factors involved in the life cycle of mammarenaviruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5834214/ SHA: efbd0dfc426da5dd25ce29411d6fa37571623773 Authors: Iwasaki, Masaharu; Minder, Petra; Caì, Yíngyún; Kuhn, Jens H.; Yates, John R.; Torbett, Bruce E.; de la Torre, Juan C. Date: 2018-02-20 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1006892 License: cc0 Abstract: Several mammalian arenaviruses (mammarenaviruses) cause hemorrhagic fevers in humans and pose serious public health concerns in their endemic regions. Additionally, mounting evidence indicates that the worldwide-distributed, prototypic mammarenavirus, lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV), is a neglected human pathogen of clinical significance. Concerns about human-pathogenic mammarenaviruses are exacerbated by of the lack of licensed vaccines, and current anti-mammarenavirus therapy is limited to off-label use of ribavirin that is only partially effective. Detailed understanding of virus/host-cell interactions may facilitate the development of novel anti-mammarenavirus strategies by targeting components of the host-cell machinery that are required for efficient virus multiplication. Here we document the generation of a recombinant LCMV encoding a nucleoprotein (NP) containing an affinity tag (rLCMV/Strep-NP) and its use to capture the NP-interactome in infected cells. Our proteomic approach combined with genetics and pharmacological validation assays identified ATPase Na(+)/K(+) transporting subunit alpha 1 (ATP1A1) and prohibitin (PHB) as pro-viral factors. Cell-based assays revealed that ATP1A1 and PHB are involved in different steps of the virus life cycle. Accordingly, we observed a synergistic inhibitory effect on LCMV multiplication with a combination of ATP1A1 and PHB inhibitors. We show that ATP1A1 inhibitors suppress multiplication of Lassa virus and Candid#1, a live-attenuated vaccine strain of Junín virus, suggesting that the requirement of ATP1A1 in virus multiplication is conserved among genetically distantly related mammarenaviruses. Our findings suggest that clinically approved inhibitors of ATP1A1, like digoxin, could be repurposed to treat infections by mammarenaviruses pathogenic for humans. Text: Introduction Mammarenaviruses (Arenaviridae: Mammarenavirus) cause chronic infections of rodents worldwide [1] . Invasion of human dwellings by infected rodents can result in human infections through mucosal exposure to aerosols or by direct contact of abraded skin with infectious material. Several mammarenaviruses cause viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) in humans and pose important public health problems in their endemic areas [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] . Mammarenaviruses are classified into two main groups, Old World (OW) and New World (NW) [1] . The OW Lassa virus (LASV), causative agent of Lassa fever (LF), is the most significant OW mammarenaviral pathogen. LASV is estimated to infect several hundred thousand individuals annually in Western Africa, resulting in a high number of LF cases associated with high morbidity and lethality. Moreover, LASV endemic regions are expanding [7] , and the association of the recently identified mammarenavirus Lujo virus with a VHF outbreak in Southern Africa [8, 9] has raised concerns about the emergence of novel VHF-causing mammarenaviruses. The most significant NW mammarenavirus is Junín virus (JUNV), which causes Argentinian hemorrhagic fever [10] . The worldwide-distributed OW mammarenavirus lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) is a neglected human pathogen of clinical significance especially in congenital infections [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] . Moreover, LCMV poses a particular threat to immunocompromised individuals, as has been illustrated by fatal cases of LCMV infection associated with organ transplants [16, 17] . However, LCMV research can be safely performed at BSL-2 containment, rather than the BSL-4 containment necessary for live LASV or JUNV research [18] . No US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-licensed vaccines are available for the treatment of arenavirus infections, although a live attenuated vaccine strain of JUNV, Candid#1, is licensed in Argentina. Likewise, current anti-mammarenavirus therapy is limited to an offlabel use of the nucleoside analogue ribavirin that is only partially effective and can cause significant side effects [19] [20] [21] . Development of effective anti-mammarenavirus drugs has been hampered by the lack of detailed understanding of virus/host-cell interactions required for mammarenavirus multiplication that could represent amenable targets for antiviral therapy. the potential problem that overexpression of a single viral gene product may potentiate PPI interactions that are not relevant during the course of a natural virus infection. To overcome this issue, we designed a recombinant LCMV (rLCMV) encoding a tandem [WSHPQFEK (GGGS) 3 WSHPQFEK] Strep-tag fused to the amino-terminus of NP (rLCMV/Strep-NP) (Fig 1A and 1B) . To facilitate the identification of specific PPI between NP and host cell proteins, we used our mammarenavirus tri-segmented (r3) platform [30] to design an r3LCMV expressing a C-terminus Strep-tag version of enhanced green fluorescent protein (r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep) that we used as a negative control (Fig 1A and 1B) . We rescued rLCMV/Strep-NP and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep and confirmed the expression of strep-tagged NP and eGFP in rLCMV/ Strep-NP-and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep-infected cells, respectively (Fig 1C) . Next, we examined the growth properties of rLCMV/Strep-NP and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep in three different cells lines from hamsters, humans, and nonhuman primates (BHK-21, A549, and Vero E6 cells, respectively) (Fig 1D) . The fitness of rLCMV/Strep-NP and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep was modestly decreased compared to that observed with wild-type (WT) Armstrong (rLCMV ARM) and Clone 13 (rLCMV Cl-13) strains of LCMV. However, both rLCMV/Strep-NP and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep had WT-like growth kinetics and reached high titers. As with WT LCMV, infection with rLCMV/Strep-NP prevented production of bioactive IFN-I by cells in response to Sendai virus (SeV) infection as determined using an IFN bioassay based on protection against the cytopathic effect (CPE) induced by infection with vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) (Fig 1E) . Vero cells treated for 16 h with tissue cultured supernatants (TCS) from A549 cells infected first with WT LCMV or rLCMV/Strep, followed by 24 h infection with SeV, remained fully susceptible to VSV-induced CPE. In contrast, Vero cells treated with TCS from A549 cells infected with rLCMV/NP(D382A), a mutant unable to prevent induction of IFN-I [30] , and subsequently with SeV, were protected against VSV induced CPE. We selected the human A549 cell line because lung epithelial cells are one of the initial cell targets of humans following inhalation of mammarenavirions. We infected A549 cells (multiplicity of infection [MOI] = 0.1) with either rLCMV/Strep-NP or r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep (Fig 2A) . At 48 h post-inoculation (pi), we prepared total cell lysates for pull-down (PD) assays using a sepharose resin coated with strep-tactin. Aliquots of the protein complexes present in the PD samples were fractionated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) (Fig 2B) followed by SYPRO Ruby protein gel staining. We compared the pattern of stained protein bands detected between rLCMV/Strep-NP-and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strepinfected samples and confirmed the presence of Strep-NP and eGFP-Strep in pertinent samples (Fig 2B) . Protein complexes in the rest of eluates from the PD samples were concentrated by trichloroacetic acid (TCA) precipitation and subjected to trypsin digestion (Fig 2A) . Digested peptides were subjected to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) analysis using a hybrid mass spectrometer consisting of linear quadrupole ion dual cell trap (LTQ) Velos and an Orbitrap analyser. We classified host-cell proteins identified by LC-MS/MS analysis from two independent biological replicates into two groups: 1) proteins found only in Strep-NP PD samples with at least five spectral counts ( Table 1) , and 2) proteins found in both Strep-NP and eGFP-Strep PD samples with five or higher spectral counts in Strep-NP samples and at least 2-fold higher spectral counts in Strep-NP PD compared to eGFP PD samples ( Table 2) . Filtering the data using these criteria resulted in identification of 139 candidate host-cell proteins as NP-interacting partners. Among 53 proteins found present in both NP-and eGFP-PD samples, 36 had spectral counts in the NP-PD sample that were less than two-fold higher than their corresponding spectral counts in the eGFP-PD sample (Fig 2C and S1 Table) . Based on the criteria we described above, we considered these proteins to be highly unlikely specific NPinteractors with an involvement in the LCMV life cycle, and therefore we did not consider these hits for further analysis. However, we acknowledge that we cannot formally rule out that some of these hits could still play a role on the life cycle of LCMV. The protein annotation through evolutionary relationship (PANTHER) protein family classification (Biological Process) of the NP-interacting protein candidates revealed that a large number of proteins were involved in metabolic and cellular processes (Fig 2D) . We also analyzed the molecular functions of the NP-interacting protein candidates according to the PAN-THER protein profile classification (Fig 2E) , which revealed diversified biochemical functions enriched for nucleic acid-binding proteins and chaperones. To initially assess pro-or anti-viral roles of NP-interacting host-cell proteins identified by LC-MS/MS, we examined the effect of small interfering RNA (siRNA)-mediated knockdown (kd) of each of the corresponding genes on multiplication of rLCMV expressing reporter gene ZsGreen (ZsG) in A549 cells (Fig 3A) . The siRNAs we used were from the genome-wide ON TARGET-Plus (OTP) Human siRNA library (18,301 genes, 4 siRNAs/gene). OTPs are latest generation of siRNAs and offer significant advantages over previous generations. Off-target effects are primarily driven by antisense strand microRNA (miR)-like seed activity. In OTPs, the sense strand is modified to favor antisense strand uptake whereas the antisense strand seed region is modified to drastically reduce seed-related off-targeting [33] . In addition, OTPs are designed on the foundation of the SMARTselection algorithm (Dharmacon), widely considered to be the best algorithm for rational siRNA design strategy. Numerous host-cell factors showed an anti-LCMV effect (increased ZsG expression by kd of the genes), including microtubule-associated protein 1B (MAP1B) [ [38] , dengue virus 2 (DENV-2) [39] , and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) [40] . To begin assessing the potential biological implications of the identified NP-host cell protein interactions, we selected ATP1A1 and PHB given the availability of reagents, existing knowledge about their roles in cell physiology, and evidence of participation in multiplication of other viruses. We confirmed that cells transfected with siRNA specific to ATP1A1 and PHB exhibited the predicted reduced levels in ATP1A1 and PHB protein expression (Fig 3B) . Likewise, we examined whether siRNA-mediated reduced expression levels of ZsGreen correlated with reduced LCMV progeny titers. For this, we transfected A549 cells with siRNA targeting Expression of Strep-tagged proteins. A549 cells seeded (5.0 x 10 5 cells/well) in a 6-well plate and cultured overnight were infected (MOI = 0.1) with the indicated rLCMVs. At 48 h pi, total cell lysates were prepared, and protein expression was analyzed by western blotting. (D) Growth properties of rLCMV expressing Strep-tagged proteins. BHK-21 (1.75 x 10 5 cells/well), A549 (1.25 x 10 5 cells/well), or Vero E6 (1.25 x 10 5 cells/well) cells seeded in 24-well plates and cultured overnight were infected (MOI = 0.01) with the indicated rLCMVs. At the indicated times pi, TCSs were collected and virus titers determined by IFFA. Results represent means ± SD of the results of three independent experiments. (E) Lack of induction of IFN-I in cells infected with rLCMV/Strep-NP. A549 cells were infected (MOI = 0.1) with the indicated rLCMV or mock-infected, and 36 h later infected with SeV (MOI = 1). At 24 h pi with SeV, TCS were collected and used, following virus inactivation by U.V., to treat Vero E6 cells for 16 h, followed by infection with rVSV (MOI = 0.1) [rVSV(+)] or mockinfection [rVSV (-) ]. At 24 h pi with rVSV, cells were fixed with 4% PFA and stained with crystal violet to assess rVSV-induced cytopathic effect. We used as control rLCMV/NP(D382A) that contains mutation D382A within NP, which has been shown to abrogate the NP's ability to counteract the induction of IFN-I production. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1006892.g001 ATP1A1 or with NC siRNA 72 h prior to infection with rLCMV/ZsG. We found that siRNAmediated kd of ATP1A1 dramatically inhibited ZsGreen expression (Fig 3Ci) , which was associated with a significant reduction of infectious LCMV progeny (Fig 3Cii) . Our attempts to see interaction between NP and ATP1A1 or NP and PHB by co-immunoprecipitation were unsuccessful. Several possibilities could account for this, including interactions of low affinity or high on/off rate or both. Another consideration is that only a minor fraction of NP might be engaged in the interaction with a given host cell protein, and therefore, detection of these interactions would require highly sensitive methods such as LC-MS/MS. To overcome this problem we used confocal microscopy to examine the co-localization of NP with ATP1A1 and PHB in LCMV-infected cells. Weighted co-localization coefficients (CC), determined by taking into consideration the brightness of each channel signal, were significantly higher than non-weighted CC, indicating the presence of brighter pixels in the co-localized regions compared to the non-co-localized regions (Fig 4) . The cardiac glycoside ouabain is an inhibitor of ATP1A1 that has been used to treat congestive heart failure in European countries [41] . The PHB inhibitor rocaglamide is a flavagline from an Aglaia tree used in traditional Chinese medicine [42] that has potent anticancer activity [43] . To examine whether pharmacological inhibition of ATP1A1 or PHB inhibited LCMV multiplication, we pretreated human (A549 and HEK 293T), nonhuman primate (Vero E6), and rodent (murine L929 and hamster BHK-21) cells with ouabain or rocaglamide and infected them with rLCMV/eGFP (S1 Fig). Ouabain treatment resulted in a strong dosedependent inhibition of eGFP expression in infected human-and nonhuman primate cells, but did not affect eGFP expression intensity in infected rodent cells (S1A Fig) . This finding is consistent with rodents expressing an ATP1A1 allele that is resistant to ouabain inhibition [44] . Likewise, we observed a dose-dependent rocaglamide inhibition of eGFP expression in all cell lines infected with rLCMV/eGFP (S1B Fig) . Consistent with these findings, production of infectious LCMV progeny was reduced by treatment with either ouabain or rocaglamide ( Fig 5A) within a concentration range that had minimal impact on cell viability (Fig 5B) . To examine the correlation between efficacy and cytotoxicity of these compounds, we determined their therapeutic index (TI = CC 50 /IC 50 (Fig 5Bi) ; whereas rocaglamide had TIs of >105 (CC 50 > 1000 nM, IC 50 = 9.51 nM) and 10.3 (CC 50 = 100 nM, IC 50 = 9.75 nM) in A549 and Vero E6 cells, respectively (Fig 5Bii) . Moreover, the ATP1A1 antagonist inhibitor, bufalin, also exhibited robust anti-LCMV activity with TIs of 8.92 (CC 50 Heat shock protein HSP 90-alpha HSP90AA1 P07900 8 10 9 Endoplasmin HSP90B1 P14625 9 9 9 Large neutral amino acids transporter small subunit 1 SLC7A5 Q01650 6 12 9 Keratin, type II cuticular Hb1 KRT81 Q14533 10 8 9 Putative helicase MOV-10 MOV10 Q9HCE1 8 10 9 Microtubule-associated protein 1B MAP1B P46821 6 11 8.5 Spectrin beta chain, rocaglamide (100 nM) (Fig 5C) , further supporting a specific anti-LCMV activity of ouabain and rocaglamide that was not due to reduced cell viability. To gain insights about the mechanisms by which ouabain and rocaglamide exert their anti-LCMV activity, we examined effects of these compounds on distinct steps of the LCMV life cycle. First, we asked whether ouabain and rocaglamide affected cell entry of LCMV. We conducted time-of-addition experiments in which we treated cells with ouabain or rocaglamide prior to virus inoculation (-1.5 h), at the time of inoculation (0 h), or 1.5 h pi (+1.5 h) (Fig 6A) . In some samples, we used ammonium chloride starting at 4 h pi to block multiple rounds of virus infection. The timing of compound addition did not significantly change the number of eGFP-positive cells, indicating that neither ouabain nor rocaglamide inhibited cell entry of LCMV. The number of eGFP + cells in ouabain-treated cells was reduced at all time-of-addition points compared to vehicle dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO)-treated cells, but was similar to that observed in ammonium chloride-treated cells. Thus, ouabain did not inhibit LCMV RNA replication and gene expression, but rather a late step of the LCMV life cycle. In contrast, rocaglamide treatment resulted in a negligible number of eGFP + cells, indicating that rocaglamide inhibited virus RNA replication and gene transcription. To further investigate the effect of ouabain and rocaglamide on virus RNA synthesis, we infected A549 cells with a recombinant single-cycle infectious LCMV expressing eGFP (rLCMVΔGPC/eGFP) and treated cells with either ouabain or rocaglamide. Seventy-two hours later, we determined percent normalized eGFP expression in infected cells (Fig 6B) . Consistent with our results from the time-of-addition experiment, ouabain did not affect reporter eGFP expression. However, rocaglamide reduced eGFP expression, confirming inhibitory effect of rocaglamide on virus RNA synthesis. We also examined the effect of ouabain and rocaglamide on the late step of the arenavirus life cycle, Z-mediated budding. For this experiment, we transfected cells with Z-Strep-and Z-FLAG (DYKDDDDK epitope)-expressing plasmids from LCMV and LASV, respectively. At 24 h post-transfection, we removed the tissue culture supernatant (TCS) and washed extensively transfected cells to eliminate already budded Z. We cultured the transfected cells in the presence or absence of ouabain or rocaglamide. At 24 h, we determined by WB levels of Z protein in both whole cell lysates and associated with virus-like particles (VLPs) collected from TCS. Treatment with rocaglamide, but not with ouabain, caused a reduction in both LCMV and LASV Z budding efficiency (Fig 6C and 6D) . The reproducibility of these findings was confirmed based on results from four independent experiments (Fig 6E) . We also examined whether ouabain could interfere with a step of assembly of infectious progeny that was not captured by the Z budding assay through two additional experiments. The first experiment involved the use of a newly generated single-cycle infectious recombinant LCMV expressing the reporter gene ZsGreen (scrLCMV/ZsG-P2A-NP) to infect (MOI = 0.1) A549 cells (1 st infection). These cells were subsequently transfected with a plasmid expressing LCMV GPC. After 24 h, we used TCS to infect a fresh cell monolayer (2 nd infection) and identified infected cells based on ZsGreen expression. To assess the effect of ouabain on de novo assembly of infectious progeny we determined normalized ratios (2 nd /1 st infection) of ZsGreen + cells (Fig 6F) . The second experiment involved infection (MOI = 0.1) of cells with WT LCMV, and 48 h later we washed infected cells three times to remove the extracellular infectious progeny produced during the first 48 h of infection. Then, fresh media containing ouabain or DMSO vehicle control were added, and 24 h later we determined virus titers in TCS (Fig 6G) . Results from both experiments consistently showed that ouabain did not inhibit assembly de novo of extracellular infectious virus. Combination therapy can significantly alleviate the problem posed by the rapid emergence of drug-resistant variants commonly observed during monotherapy strategies to control RNA virus infections. Since ouabain and rocaglamide inhibited different steps of the LCMV life cycle, we examined whether their use in combination results in a synergistic anti-LCMV effect. For this experiment, we infected A549 cells with rLCMV/eGFP and treated them with ouabain and rocaglamide using different concentrations and combinations. At 48 h pi, we determined percent eGFP expression (Fig 7) . Combination treatment with ouabain and rocaglamide resulted in synergistic anti-LCMV activity that was enhanced under conditions using higher concentrations of ouabain and lower concentrations of rocaglamide. We next asked whether the ATP1A1 and PHB host-cell factors contributed also to multiplication of viral hemorrhagic fever-causing LASV. We treated A549 cells with ouabain, bufalin, or rocaglamide and inoculated the treated cells with recombinant LASV expressing eGFP (rLASV/eGFP). eGFP expression was examined 48 h later. Similar to rLCMV infection, LASV multiplication was restricted in ouabain-, bufalin-, or rocaglamide-treated cells at concentrations minimally impacting cell viability, although their IC 50 values were slightly higher than those found with the LCMV infection system (Fig 5B and S2 Fig) as ouabain had IC 50 of 9.34 nM, bufalin had IC 50 of 1.66 nM and rocaglamide had IC 50 of 37.0 nM (Fig 8) . We also tested the effect of compounds targeting ATP1A1 and PHB on multiplication of JUNV. Consistent with our results obtained with LCMV and LASV, ouabain, bufalin, and rocaglamide strongly suppressed JUNV multiplication (S3 Fig). These findings indicate that ATP1A1 and PHB function as pro-viral factors of a range of mammarenaviruses. We identified ATP1A1 and PHB as novel host-cell proteins that contribute to efficient multiplication of mammarenaviruses. Our approach using a recombinant LCMV expressing NP with an affinity tag facilitated defining the NP interactome in the context of LCMV infection. Recently, using an NP-specific monoclonal antibody (mAb) to precipitate NP and associated cellular protein partners in a mammarenavirus NP interactome, King et al. identified 348 host proteins that associated with LCMV NP [45] . We found 99 common proteins between our filtered LCMV NP interactome of 171 proteins and the LCMV NP interactome documented by King et al. Differences in both experimental conditions and analysis methodologies used to generate the LCMV NP interactome documented by King et al. and ours likely h post-transfection, cells were washed with fresh media to eliminate Z-mediated production of VLPs in the absence of compound treatment, and cultured for another 24 h in fresh media in the presence of ouabain or Roc-A at the indicated concentrations. VLPs present in TCS were collected by ultracentrifugation, and cell lysates were prepared. Z protein expression in VLPs and cell lysates were determined by western blots using antibodies to Strep-tag (C) and FLAG-tag (D). Budding efficiency for each sample was estimated by dividing the signal intensity of the Z protein associated with VLPs by that of Z detected in the cell lysate. Numbers on the bottom of panel C correspond to LCMV Z budding efficiencies determined in a representative experiment. Results shown in panel E correspond to the average and SD from four independent experiments including the one shown in panel D. The mean budding efficiency of DMSO treatedsamples was set to 100%. Data represent mean ± SD of four independent experiments. (F) Effect of ouabain on incorporation of viral glycoprotein into virions. 293T cells seeded (4.0 x 10 5 cells/well) in a 12-well plate and cultured overnight were infected (MOI = 0.1) with scrLCMV/ZsG (1 st infection) for 2 h and subsequently transfected with 0.5 μg of pC-GPC. At 24 h pi, cells were washed with fresh medium to eliminate infectious virus particle produced in the absence of compound treatment, and cultured for another 24 h in fresh media in the presence of ouabain at 40 nM (OUA). At 48 h pi, TCS was collected and used to infect fresh monolayer of BHK-21 cells (2 nd infection) seeded (4.0 x 10 5 cells/well) in a 12-well plate 1 day before the infection, and 293T cell lysate was prepared. 24 h later, BHK-21 cell lysate was prepared. ZsGreen signal intensity was measured by a fluorescent plate reader. GP-incorporation efficiency was estimated by dividing ZsGreen signal intensity in BHK-21 cell lysate (2 nd ) by that in 293T cell lysate (1 st ). The mean GP-incorporation efficiency of DMSO treated samples was set to 100%. Data represent means ± SD from three independent experiments. contributed to the observed differences between data sets. Despite progress in the implementation of global proteomics-based screens to identify virus-host protein-protein interactions, overlap between datasets for the same viral system is usually limited. However, the substantial overlap of 99 of the 171 NP-interacting proteins from both studies supports the overall reliability of both systems. We used results of the eGFP-Strep interactome, determined in r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep-infected cells, as a control to filter out non-specific NP interactions, which may have resulted in a higher degree of stringency than in the study by King et al for selection of NP-interacting candidates. The combined information provided by the NP interactome reported by King et al. and the one we present in this work, will facilitate future studies to further characterize the functional and biological implications of NP-host cell interacting proteins. All tested mammarenavirus NPs, with exception of the NP from TCRV, blocked IRF-3-dependent IFN-I induction [25, 46] . The anti-IFN activity of NP was mapped to its C-terminal part and linked to the 3'-5' exonuclease domain present with the NP C-terminal part [30] . Inhibitor-B kinase ε (IKKε) was identified as an NP-binding protein using plasmid-mediated overexpression in transfected cells [47] , and the NP-IKKε binding affinity correlated with NP's ability to inhibit IFN-I induction [47] . We, as well as the work by King et al. [45] , did not detect this NP-IKKε interaction. This discrepancy may have been caused by very low expression of IKKε in LCMV-infected cells, which prevented detection of IKKε by LC-MS/MS. Alternatively, NP-IKKε interaction could possibility be temporarily regulated and take place at early times pi, but could be mostly absent at 48 h pi, the time at which we prepared the cell lysates for our proteomics studies. Future studies comparing the NP interactome at different times during infection will contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of NP/hostcell protein interactions. Na + /K + -ATPase is a well-characterized membrane ion transporter and is composed of two functional subunits (α and β) and one regulatory γ subunit [48] . ATP1A1 represents one of four α subunits [49, 50] . Recent evidence has suggested that the Na + /K + -ATPase is involved in multiple cell signaling pathways that are independent of its ion-pumping function [51] . Cardiac glycoside inhibitors of the Na + /K + -ATPase (NKA), so-called cardiotonic steroids (CST; e.g., ouabain, bufalin), have been shown to inhibit multiplication of different viruses including Ebola virus [35], coronaviruses [36], herpes simplex virus 1 [52, 53] , CHIKV [54] , human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) [55] , adenovirus [56] and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus 1 [57] . Different mechanisms are likely to contribute to the antiviral activity of CSTs, including altered cell functions modulated by the signaling activity of Na + /K + -ATPase [58] . Thus, a low concentration of ouabain induces a conformational change in ATP1A1 that results in activation and release of proto-oncogene tyrosine protein kinase, Src, from ATP1A1, followed by activation of as yet unknown downstream signaling that inhibits, for instance, cell entry of murine hepatitis virus (MHV) [59] . However, our results indicated that ouabain did not interfere with LCMV cell entry. In addition, treatment with the Src inhibitor 4-amino-5-(4-methylphenyl)-7-(t-butyl)pyrazolo [3,4-d] pyrimidine (PP1) did not counteract the anti-LCMV activity of ouabain (S4 Fig). Nevertheless, ATP1A1-mediated Src signaling could plausibly contribute to the inhibitory effect of ouabain on JUNV multiplication as similarly to that observed with MHV. Moreover, cell entry of JUNV occurs also by clathrin-mediated endocytosis [60] , a process affected by Src signaling. Ouabain has been clinically used in several European countries for the management of congestive heart failure, whereas bufalin has been tested in clinical trials for cancer treatments [61] , and the CST digoxin has been FDA-approved since 1997 to treat heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Hence, opportunities for the repurposing CSTs have potential as therapeutics to treat infections caused by viral hemorrhagic fever-causing arenaviruses. The PHB inhibitor, rocaglamide, appeared to interfere with LCMV RNA synthesis and budding, but did not affect LCMV cell entry. In contrast, PHB was reported to be a cell entry receptor for DENV-2 [39] and CHIKV [40] . On the other hand, PHB did not act as a virus cell entry receptor for HCV. Rather, PHB contributed to HCV cell entry through binding to cellular RAF (c-Raf; proto-oncogene serine/threonine-protein kinase) and subsequent Harvey rat sarcoma proto-oncogene (HRas) activation that induces a signal transduction pathway required for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mediated HCV cell entry [37] . In addition, siRNA-mediated kd of PHB decreased production of H5N1 FLUAV [38] . These findings indicate that PHB is involved in different steps of the life cycle of a variety of viruses, and thereby an attractive target for the development of broad-spectrum antiviral drugs. Rocaglate is a group of natural compounds, which includes rocaglamide, that inhibits protein synthesis by targeting the ATP-dependent DEAD-box RNA helicase eukaryotic initiation factor 4A (eIF4A) and exerts anti-tumor activity [62, 63] . The rocaglate compound, silvestrol, inhibits Ebola virus multiplication likely by interfering with the role of eIF4A in viral protein translation [64] . While we focused on two host proteins, ATP1A1 and PHB, in this study, our proteomics approach also identified several NP-interacting host-cell proteins whose kd expression via siRNA resulted in increased LCMV multiplication. These proteins, which included MAP1B, might have anti-LCMV activity. MAP1B has been shown to bind to nonstructural proteins 1 (NS1) and 2 (NS2) of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) [34] . NS1 and NS2 of HRSV antagonizes host IFN-I response by reducing the levels of TNF receptor associated factor (TRAF3), IKKε (NS1), and STAT2 (NS2) [65] . NS2-MAP1B interaction interfered with HRSV NS2's ability to reduce levels of STAT2, whereas the role of NS1-MAP1B interaction remains to be determined [34] . Examining the role of NP-MAP1B interaction in modulating NP's ability to inhibit induction of type I IFN is of interest. We identified among the NP-interacting host cell proteins the RNA helicase Moloney leukemia virus 10 (MOV10), which has been reported to be an antiviral factor for FLUAV [66] , retroviruses [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] , and DENV-2 [72] . We did not observe increased LCMV multiplication in cells subjected to siRNA-mediated kd of MOV10, a finding that would question an anti-LCMV activity of MOV10. However, we consider that LCMV has already optimal multiplication in A549 cells and further increases may occur only under rather unique conditions. MOV10 was shown to enhance IRF-3-mediated IFN-I induction following SeV infection through a tank binding kinase 1 (TBK1)-independent and IKKε-dependent manner. This finding was further supported by demonstrating MOV10-IKKε interaction by co-immunoprecipitation studies [73] . We documented that the anti-IFN activity of mammarenavirus NP correlated with its ability to interact with IKKε [47] . Whether NP-MOV10 interaction prevents MOV10 from enhancing IRF-3-mediated IFN-I induction remains to be determined. Several members of the mammalian chaperonin-containing T-complex (CCT) were identified as prominent hits in our NP interactome. The mammalian CCT is critical for folding of many proteins with important functions in diverse cellular processes [74] , and may protect complex protein topologies within its central cavity during biosynthesis and folding [75] . The contribution of CCT members to NP assembly into a nucleocapsid structure could account for their presence in the NP, but not eGFP, interactome. Interestingly, members of the CCT have been implicated in multiplication of different viruses including rabies virus [76, 77] , HCV [78] and FLUAV [79] . However, the role of these CCT proteins in virus multiplication remains unknown and may involve functions other than acting as molecular chaperones. Previous studies documented the presence of several components of the of eIF4F, including 4A, within viral replication-transcription complexes (RTC) detected in cells infected with LCMV [80] and TCRV [81] . These findings, together with the detection of a number of ribosomal proteins in the NP interactome, suggest that translation of viral mRNAs may take place within RTC. However, rocaglamide interference with the activity of eIF4A within the viral RTC might contribute to its anti-LCMV activity. In this work, we documented the generation of rLCMV/Strep-NP and its use to define the NP-interactome in infected cells. We presented evidence that ATP1A1 and PHB contribute to efficient multiplication of mammarenaviruses using genetics and pharmacological inhibition of the genes. Consistent with our findings, bioinformatic analysis revealed that the protein network associated with ATP1A1 and PHB involves host cell proteins with functions in biological processes that have been implicated in virus multiplication (S5 Fig). The overall experimental approach described here can facilitate the identification of biologically relevant NP-interacting host-cell proteins. Future studies elucidating the roles of pro-and antiviral host-cell factors identified in this study in mammarenavirus multiplication will advance our understanding of the multiple functions of NP and uncover novel cellular targets for the development of antimammarenaviral drugs. In addition, by identifying proviral host-cell factors, drugs that are already approved can be repurposing as therapeutics to combat human pathogenic mammarenavirus infections. Baby hamster kidney BHK-21 (American Type Culture Collection, ATCC, CCL-10), house mouse L929 (ATCC CCL-1), grivet Vero E6 (ATCC CRL-1586), human A549 (ATCC CCL-185), and human HEK 293T (ATCC CRL-3216) cells were grown in Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Waltham, MA) containing 10% heat-inactivated fetal bovine serum, 2 mM of L-glutamine, 100 mg/ml of streptomycin, and 100 U/ml of penicillin at 37˚C and 5% CO 2 . WT recombinant LCMVs, Armstrong (rLCMV ARM) and clone-13 (rLCMV Cl-13) strains, were generated as described [30, 82, 83] . Generation of rLCMV/NP(D382A) and SeV, strain Cantell, was described [30, 82, 83 ]. An rLCMV lacking GPC and expressing eGFP (rLCMVΔGPC/eGFP) was generated by reverse genetics using procedures previously described [84] . rLCMV/Strep-NP and r3LCMV/eGFP-Strep were generated by reverse genetics using similar procedures to generate WT rLCMV and tri-segmented LCMV (r3LCMV) expressing eGFP [30] . For the generation of these novel rLCMVs, we created pol1S Cl-13 plasmids that directed Pol1-mediated intracellular synthesis of recombinant LCMV S genome RNA species coding for Strep-tagged NP or eGFP, respectively (Fig 1A and 1B) . The rLCMV expressing eGFP (rLCMV/eGFP) was generated as described [85] , and the rLCMV expressing ZsGreen (rLCMV/ZsG) instead of eGFP was generated by reverse genetics using similar procedures to generate rLCMV/eGFP. Generation of rLASV expressing eGFP (rLASV/eGFP) will be described elsewhere. A tri-segmented recombinant live-attenuated Candid #1 strain of JUNV expressing eGFP (r3JUNV/eGFP) was generated as described [86] . For the generation of a novel single cycle rLCMV expressing ZsGreen (scrLCMV/ZsG-P2A-NP), a pol1S plasmid was created by omitting GPC open reading frame (ORF) from pol1S plasmid used for the generation of rLCMV/ZsG. scrLCMV/ZsG-P2A-NP was rescued by reverse genetics using similar procedures to generate rLCMVΔGPC/eGFP [84] . LCMV titers were determined by immunofocus forming assay (IFFA) as described [87] . Briefly, 10-fold serial virus dilutions were used to infect Vero E6 cell monolayers in a 96-well plate, and at 20 h pi, cells were fixed with 4% paraformaldehyde (PFA) in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS). After cell permeabilization by treatment with dilution buffer (DB) (0.3% Triton X-100 in PBS-containing 3% bovine serum albumin [BSA]), cells were stained with a rat mAb to NP (VL-4, Bio X Cell, West Lebanon, NH) conjugated with Alexa Fluor 488 (VL-4-AF488, Protein Labeling Kit, Life Technologies, Carlsbad, CA). VSV titers were determined by a plaque assay. Total cell lysates were prepared in PD lysis buffer (+) (250 mM of NaCl, 50 mM of Tris-HCl [pH = 7.5], 0.5% TritonX-100, 10% glycerol, 1 mM of MgCl 2 , 1 μM of CaCl 2 , 1 μM of ZnCl 2 ) and clarified by centrifugation at 21,130 x g at 4˚C for 10 min. Clarified lysates were mixed at a 1:1 ratio with loading buffer (100 mM of Tris [pH 6.8], 20% 2-mercaptoethanol, 4% SDS, 0.2% bromophenol blue, 20% glycerol) and boiled for 5 min. Proteins samples were fractionated by SDS-PAGE using 4-20% gradient polyacrylamide gels (Mini-PROTEAN TGX gels 4-20%, Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA), and proteins were transferred by electroblotting onto polyvinylidene difluoride membranes (Immobilin Transfer Membranes, Millipore, Billerica, MA). To detect Strep-tagged proteins, membranes were reacted with mouse monoclonal antibodies to Strep (QIAGEN, Germantown, MD), eGFP (Takara Bio USA, Mountain View, CA), GP 2 (We33/ 36), ATP1A1 (TehrmoFisher Scientific, Rockford, IL), PHB (Abcam, Cambridge, MA) or rabbit polyclonal antibodies to α-tubulin (Cell Signaling Technologies, Danvers, MA) or glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH, Millipore), respectively, followed by incubation with appropriate horseradish peroxidase-conjugated anti-mouse or anti-rabbit immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies (Jackson ImmunoResearch Laboratories, West Grove, PA). SuperSignal West Pico or Femto chemiluminescent substrate (Thermo Fisher Scientific) was used to elicit chemiluminescent signals that were visualized using ImageQuant LAS 4000 Imager (GE Healthcare Bio-Sciences, Pittsburgh, PA). Pull down of strep-tagged proteins from infected cell lysate. A549 cells prepared in six 15-cm dishes (approximately 1.0 x 10 8 cells in total) were infected with either rLCMV/Strep-NP or r3LCMV/eGFP at an MOI of 0.1. At 48 h pi, cells were washed three times with ice-cold PBS, scraped into fresh ice-cold PBS, and centrifuged at 400 x g at 4˚C for 10 min. Supernatant was removed, and cells were lysed with 12 ml of PD lysis buffer (+) supplemented with halt protease and phosphatase inhibitor cocktail (Thermo Fisher Scientific) and 5 μg/ml of deoxyribonuclease I (Worthington Biochemical Corporation, Lakewood, NJ). Lysate was clarified by centrifugation at 3,900 x g at 4˚C for 30 min to remove cell debris. Clarified cell lysate was then incubated with strep-tactin sepharose resin (QIAGEN) at 4˚C. After 2 h of incubation, the resin was washed three times with PD lysis buffer (+) and once with PD lysis buffer without TritonX-100 (PD lysis buffer [-] ). After the centrifugation at 1,600 x g and 4˚C for 5 min, the last wash buffer was removed, and protein complexes associated with the resin were eluted into 2 ml of PD lysis buffer (-) containing 2.5 mM of desthiobiotin. The eluate was then subjected to TCA precipitation followed by trypsin digestion. Multidimensional protein identification technology microcolumn. A MudPIT microcolumn was prepared by first creating a Kasil frit at one end of an un-deactivated 250-μm outside diameter (OD) capillary tube (interior diameter of 360 μm)(Agilent Technologies, Inc., Santa Clara, CA). The Kasil frit was prepared by briefly dipping a 20-30-cm capillary tube in 300 μl of Kasil 1624 potassium silicate well-mixed solution (PQ Corporation, Malvern, PA) and 100 μl of formamide, curing at 100˚C for 4 h, and cutting the frit to a length of %2 mm. Strong cation exchange particles (SCX Luna, 5-μm diameter, 125 Å pores, Phenomenex, Torrance, CA) were packed in-house from particle slurries in methanol to 2.5 cm. Reversed phase particles (2 cm, C18 Aqua, 3-μm diameter, 125 Å pores, Phenomenex) were then successively packed onto the capillary tube using the same method as SCX loading. MudPIT analysis. An analytical reversed-phase liquid chromatography column was generated by pulling a 100-μm (interior diameter (ID) of 360 μm) OD capillary tube (Polymicro Technologies, Phoenix, AZ) to 5-μm ID tip. Reversed-phase particles (Luna C18, 3-μm diameter, 125 Å pores, Phenomenex) were packed directly into the pulled column at 5.5 mPa until 15 cm long. The column was further packed, washed, and equilibrated at 10 mPa with buffer B (80% acetonitrile, 0.1% formic acid) followed by buffer A (5% acetonitrile and 0.1% formic acid). MudPIT and analytical columns were assembled using a zero-dead volume union (Upchurch Scientific, Oak Harbor, WA). LC-MS/MS analysis was performed with an Agilent high-pressure LC pump (Agilent) and linear quadrupole ion dual cell trap Orbitrap Velos (Thermo) using an in-house built electrospray stage. Electrospray was performed directly from the analytical column by applying the electrospray ionization (ESI) voltage at a tee (150 μm ID, Upchurch Scientific) directly downstream of a 1:1,000 split flow to reduce the flow rate to 300 nl/min through the columns. MudPIT experiments (10-step) were performed in which each step corresponds to 0, 10, 20, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 , and 100% buffer C (500 mM of ammonium acetate, 0.1% formic acid, and 5% acetonitrile) and was run for 3 min at the beginning of a 110-min gradient. Data analysis. Protein and peptide identification were performed with Integrated Proteomics Pipeline-IP2 (Integrated Proteomics Applications, San Diego, CA. http://www. integratedproteomics.com/) using ProLuCID and DTASelect2 algorithms. DTASelect parameters were-p 2 -y 1-trypstat-pfp .01 -extra-pI-DB-dm-in. Spectrum raw files were extracted into ms2 files from raw files using open source RawExtract 1.9.9 (Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA; http://fields.scripps.edu/downloads.php), and the tandem mass spectra were searched against a human protein database (UniprotKB). To accurately estimate peptide probabilities and false discovery rates, we used a decoy database containing the reversed sequences of all the proteins appended to the target database. Tandem mass spectra were matched to sequences using the ProLuCID algorithm with a 600-ppm peptide mass tolerance. ProLuCID searches were done on an Intel Xeon cluster processor running under the Linux operating system. The search space included half and fully tryptic peptide candidates that fell within the mass tolerance window with no miscleavage constraint. Carbamidomethylation (+57.02146 Da) of cysteine was considered as a static modification. siRNA screening A549 cells (1,000 cells/well) in a 384-well plate were reverse transfected with 0.5 pmol of siRNA pool (S2 Table) targeting each gene using 0.1 μl of Lipofectamine RNAiMAX (Thermo Fisher Scientific) (final siRNA concentration was 10 nM), followed by incubation at 37˚C and 5% CO 2 . At 72 h post-transfection, cells were infected (MOI = 0.05) with rLCMV/ZsG. siRNA target host-cell proteins were selected based on availability of validated siRNA sequences. The siRNAs we used to examine the effects on LCMV multiplication of knockdown expression of NP-interacting host cell protein candidate hits corresponded to the Genome-wide ON TAR-GET-Plus (OTP) Human siRNA library (18,301 genes, 4 siRNAs/gene; Dharmacon, Lafayette, CO). A549 cells (3.0 x 10 4 cells/well) were reverse transfected in a 24-well plate with 6 pmol of siRNA pools targeting each gene using 1 μl of Lipofectamine RNAiMAX (final siRNA concentration is 10 nM). At 72 h post-transfection, total cell lysate was prepared in modified lysis A buffer (25 mM Tris-HCl [pH = 8.0], 50 mM NaCl, 1%Triton X-100, 1.25% sodium deoxycholate) and clarified by centrifugation at 21,130 x g at 4˚C for 10 min. The total protein concentration of clarified cell lysate was measured by Pierce BCA Protein Assay Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific). The same amount of protein from each sample was subjected to SDS-PAGE, and the protein expression of siRNA-targeted genes was analyzed by western blots. Cells infected with eGFP-or ZsGreen-expressing rLCMV were fixed with 4% PFA in PBS. After cell permeabilization by treatment with DB, cells were stained with 4',6-diamidino-2-phenylindole (DAPI). Green fluorescence (eGFP or ZsGreen) and DAPI signals were measured by a fluorescent plate reader (Synergy H4 Hybrid Multi-Mode Microplate Reader, Bio-Tek, Winooski, VT). Mock-and virus-infected cells were fixed with 4% PFA. After cell permeabilization and blocking by treatment with DB containing 1% normal goat serum, cells were incubated with primary mouse anti ATP1A1 or PHB antibody followed by secondary anti-mouse IgG antibody conjugated with Alexa Fluore 568 (anti-mouse IgG-AF568). Subsequently, cells were stained with VL-4-AF488. In some samples, primary antibody against ATP1A1 or PHB was omitted to determine background fluorescence. To visualize nuclei, DAPI Fluoromount-G (SouthernBiotech, Birmingham, AL) was used to mount coverslips on a slide glass. Stained cells were observed under a confocal microscope (LSM 710, Zeiss) and data analyzed by ZEN software (Zeiss). Co-localization analysis was performed on a pixel by pixel basis using Zen software (Zeiss). Eight green (NP-positive) cells were marked and every pixel in the marked area was plotted in the scatter diagram based on its intensity level from each channel. Thresholds for green and red channels were determined using mock-infected cells stained with VL-4-AF488 (anti-NP) and anti-mouse IgG antibody conjugated with Alexa Fluor 568, without using anti-ATP1A1 or -PHB antibodies. Each pixel was assigned a value of 1. Co-localization coefficients (CC) (or non-weighted CC) were determined by dividing the sum of both green-and red-positive pixels by the sum of green positive pixels. This calculation was repeated for eight individual cells. To assess the specificity of co-localization, we determined weighted CC by taking into consideration the brightness of each channel signal. Comparison of non-weighted and weighted CC allowed us to determine whether brighter pixels were present in the co-localized regions compared to the non-co-localized regions. p values were determined by a two-tailed paired t test using GraphPad Prism software. A549 or Vero E6 cells seeded (2.0 x 10 4 cells/well) in a 96-well plate and cultured overnight were treated with 3-fold serial compound dilutions at 37˚C and 5% CO 2 for 2 h, followed by infection with rLCMV/eGFP (MOI = 0.01). Compounds were present to study endpoint. At 48 h pi, cells were fixed with 4% PFA in PBS, and eGFP expression was examined by a fluorescent plate reader (Synergy H4 Hybrid Multi-Mode Microplate Reader, BioTek). Mean values obtained with DMSO-treated and rLCMV/eGFP-infected cells were set to 100%. The IC 50 concentrations were determined using GraphPad Prism. A549 or Vero E6 cells seeded in a 96-well plate (2.0 x 10 4 cells/well) and cultured overnight were treated with 3-fold serial compound dilutions and cultured at 37˚C and 5% CO 2 for 48 h. Then, CellTiter 96 AQ ueous one solution reagent (Promega, Madison, WI) was added. Thereafter, the assay was performed according to the manufacturer's recommendations, and the absorbance (490 nm) was obtained using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) reader (SPECTRA max plus 384; Molecular Devices, Sunnyvale, CA). Mean values obtained with DMSO-treated cells were set to 100%. The CC 50 concentrations were determined using GraphPad Prism. A plasmid expressing C-terminus Strep-tagged Z protein (pC-LCMV-Z-Strep) was generated using similar procedure to generate a plasmid expressing C-terminus FLAG-tagged LASV Z protein (pC-LASV-Z-FLAG), and the budding assay was performed as previously described [88] . Cells (HEK 293T) in a 12-well plate were transfected with 0.5 μg of empty pCAGGS vector or pC-LCMV-Z-Strep or pC-LASV-Z-FLAG using Lipofectamine 2000. At 5 h post-transfection, media were replaced with fresh media and incubated at 37˚C and 5% CO 2 for 19 h. Then the cells were three times washed with fresh medium. After the removal of the last wash medium, cells were cultured in fresh medium containing ouabain (30 or 40 nM) or rocaglamide (50 or 100 nM) or equivalent concentration of DMSO, and 24 h later, virion-like particle (VLP)-containing TCS and cells were collected. Total cell lysate was prepared by lysing the cells with lysis buffer (1% NP-40, 50 mM of Tris-HCl [pH 8.0], 62.5 mM NaCl, 0.4% sodium deoxycholate). After clarification of TCS from cell debris by centrifugation at 400 x g and 4˚C for 10 min, VLPs were collected by ultracentrifugation at 100,000 x g and 4˚C for 30 min through a 20% sucrose cushion. VLPs were resuspended in PBS, and Z expression in total cell lysate and TCS (containing VLPs) were analyzed by western blots. A549 cells infected with rLCMV/eGFP were harvested using Accutase cell detachment solution (Innovative Cell Technologies, San Diego, CA) and fixed with 4% PFA in PBS. eGFP expression was examined by flow cytometry using a BD LSR II (Becton Dickson), and data were analyzed with FlowJo (Tree Star, Inc., Ashland, OR). 293T cells seeded (4.0 x 10 5 cells/well) in a 12-well plate and cultured overnight were infected with scrLCMV/ZsG-P2A-NP for 2 h and subsequently transfected with 0.5 μg of pC-GPC. At 24 h pi, cells were three times washed with fresh media to eliminate infectious virus particle produced in the absence of compound treatment, and cultured for another 24 h in fresh media in the presence of 40 nM of ouabain or vehicle control (DMSO). At 48 h pi, TCS was collected and used to infect fresh monolayers of BHK-21 cells seeded (4.0 x 10 5 cells/well) in a 12-well plate 1 day before the infection, and 293T cell lysate was prepared. 24 h later, BHK-21 cell lysate was prepared. Total cell lysate was prepared in cell lysis buffer (150 mM of NaCl, 50 mM of Tris-HCl [pH = 7.5], 0.5% [NP-40], 1 mM of EDTA] and clarified by centrifugation at 21,130 x g at 4˚C for 10 min. ZsGreen signal intensity in clarified cell lysate was measured by a fluorescent plate reader (Synergy H4 Hybrid Multi-Mode Microplate Reader, BioTek). A549 cells seeded (2 x 10 5 cells/well) in a 96-well plate and cultured overnight were treated with combinations of different concentrations of ouabain and rocaglamide for 2 h and then infected (MOI = 0.01) with rLCMV/eGFP. Compounds were present in the culture medium throughout the experiment. At 48 h pi, cells were fixed, permeabilized by treatment with DB, and stained with DAPI. eGFP and DAPI signals were measured by a fluorescent plate reader (Synergy H4 Hybrid Multi-Mode Microplate Reader, BioTek). eGFP readouts were normalized by DAPI readouts, and normalized data were used to analyze synergistic effect of the two compounds by the MacSynergy II program [89] . Data were analyzed for p values by a two-tailed unpaired t test using GraphPad Prism software.

What is the cause of Lassa fever?

A Global Champion for Health—WHO’s Next? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4924837/ SHA: f2f9088055600d4160e36db5cb6ea000916390a3 Authors: nan Date: 2016-06-28 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002059 License: cc-by Abstract: In this month’s editorial, the PLOS Medicine Editors propose ideal qualities for the World Health Organization's next Director General, for whom the selection process is now underway. Text: response to the Ebola outbreak [1] . Reformation of WHO to ready it to lead responses to future health emergencies is one area of active debate. Chan will step down from WHO on June 30, 2017 after more than a decade in the post. The process for choosing WHO's next leader has begun, promising to be protracted and rigorous as befits the importance of the role. Factoring in the many influential stakeholders in the process of appointing Chan's successor, however, transparency of the selection process may be one area unlikely to attract plaudits. Although too soon to speculate about the identity of WHO's next Director-General, it is worth reflecting on what qualities an incoming leader should bring to WHO and how that person might need to conceive changes in the structure and behavior of the organization against a landscape of important and evolving threats to the health of the fastgrowing global population. Instead of electing a new Director-General, Lorenz Von Seidlein of Mahidol University, Thailand, argued that "the problems. . .are now so deeply ingrained that replacing the WHO with new, more appropriate organizations is the logical solution. . .at a fraction of current cost, free of cumbersome, archaic obligations and entitlements and [with] an ability to respond to new problems." This viewpoint is indicative of the strength of feeling that WHO's deficiencies have come to evoke in some of those committed to the cause of improving the health of people in low-income and middle-income countries. But this perception acknowledges that an accountable global body will always be needed to promote, set standards in, and evaluate progress toward better health for people in all countries. The next Director-General will need to heed critics of the organization and craft a process of streamlining and restructuring to produce a new WHO that is demonstrably effective in leading responses to threats to health, and efficient in doing so. As Gostin commented to PLOS Medicine, "WHO urgently needs a bold reform agenda to fix long-standing problems recognized by every independent group that has evaluated the Organization." Political machinations and the enemy within, bureaucracy, are likely to impede reform. For example, WHO's regional and country offices are seen by some as unaccountable, yet the agency of the future will need to be connected and responsive to the resources and needs of all constituent countries. As Gostin also noted, "[WHO] has failed to include civil society in its governance, unlike. . .newer organizations." WHO's next Director-General should be a proven leader and advocate, perhaps from a lowincome or middle-income country. The new recruit will be greeted by a full in-tray, and featuring prominently are likely to be the constraints imposed by WHO's current funding mechanisms. A substantial proportion of WHO's existing budget is earmarked for specific projects, leaving the organization with little financial flexibility to respond to unanticipated demands. However, any improved funding mechanism is likely to follow, and be dependent on, organizational reform. According to Kruk, "WHO is both essential and hamstrung. . .the election of the Director-General should be a moment for member countries and other funders to reflect on whether they want an implementation agency for their favored health agenda, or an independent institution with the intelligence, agility, and operational capacity to tackle the coming global health challenges." Above all, the incoming leader of WHO will need to be open-minded and creative. More than one of the experts we contacted emphasized the fluid nature of the threats to human health to which WHO should shape the world's response. WHO must be able to lead responses in some areas of global health, but, in other areas, working together with more nimble and focused organizations will be pragmatic. Large-scale infectious disease outbreaks are continuing, and noncommunicable diseases, including cancer, dementia, and mental illnesses, are growing in prevalence and increasing demand for treatment and care. The resources and ingenuity of researchers and clinicians will need to be harnessed, and interventions adapted to new settings, with much greater dynamism. The secular issues of population ageing, conflict, climate change, migration, and others will produce health problems that only an organization with a global reach, responsible to all, can hope to meet. We look forward to welcoming a new leader for WHO with the energy and vision to remold the organization to meet the health needs of the world's people and societies for the 21st century.

What traits should the new Director General of the WHO have?

RNAi Therapeutic Platforms for Lung Diseases https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3816685/ Fujita, Yu; Takeshita, Fumitaka; Kuwano, Kazuyoshi; Ochiya, Takahiro 2013-02-06 DOI:10.3390/ph6020223 License:cc-by Abstract: RNA interference (RNAi) is rapidly becoming an important method for analyzing gene functions in many eukaryotes and holds promise for the development of therapeutic gene silencing. The induction of RNAi relies on small silencing RNAs, which affect specific messenger RNA (mRNA) degradation. Two types of small RNA molecules, i.e. small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) and microRNAs (miRNAs), are central to RNAi. Drug discovery studies and novel treatments of siRNAs are currently targeting a wide range of diseases, including various viral infections and cancers. Lung diseases in general are attractive targets for siRNA therapeutics because of their lethality and prevalence. In addition, the lung is anatomically accessible to therapeutic agents via the intrapulmonary route. Recently, increasing evidence indicates that miRNAs play an important role in lung abnormalities, such as inflammation and oncogenesis. Therefore, miRNAs are being targeted for therapeutic purposes. In this review, we present strategies for RNAi delivery and discuss the current state-of-the-art RNAi-based therapeutics for various lung diseases. Text: traditional surgery, Bivas-Benita et al. reported that no mortality occurred as a result of the use of the endotracheal technique. Endotracheal applications are currently being used by many practitioners in the pulmonary field [22, 34] ; this is useful for studying pulmonary drug delivery in mice. However, the approach is more complex in humans because an artificial path for the delivery of drugs into the lungs is used. Therefore, the method is being used in animal models to test and evaluate its reliability for possible clinical applications. Intratracheal route: under anesthesia, the trachea is exposed surgically, and a tube or needle is inserted through an incision made between the tracheal rings. Complications, such as vascular injury and air leakage, are possible due to the tracheotomy. (b) Endotracheal route: siRNAs are sprayed directly from the mouth into the lungs using a MicroSprayer ® aerolizer (Penn-Century, Philadelphia, PA, USA) and a laryngoscope. It is important to maintain a clear view of the trachea during the procedure. Intranasal delivery is another common method of pulmonary drug application in animal studies. In many studies, in vivo success has been demonstrated in delivering siRNAs to the lungs intranasally [22, 35, 36 ]. An experimental setup of intranasal delivery by spray or droplet is simple and painless for the animal. Although the success in delivering siRNAs intranasally in rodents cannot be completely extrapolated to human use because of the significant differences in lung anatomy [37] , this approach has potential for the clinical application of siRNAs. Phase II clinical trials have been initiated for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, making use of intranasal application of naked chemically modified siRNA molecules that target viral gene products [17, 38] (see Section 3.1.1. for details). Intranasal entry has long been used to administer small molecules, such as proteins, for systemic delivery. Because the nasal mucosa is highly vascularized, delivery of a thin epithelium of medication across the surface area can result in rapid absorption of the medication into the blood. Therefore, siRNAs administered intranasally might be deposited in the nose, and some of them may be unable to reach the lower respiratory tract. In fact, it has been reported that intranasal application of unformulated siRNAs resulted in lower delivery efficiency and homogeneous pulmonary distribution than that achieved with intratracheal application [31] . The intranasal method is suitable for some lung diseases, such as upper respiratory infection by RSV, and it also has potential for systemic delivery rather than pulmonary delivery of siRNAs. Therefore, it is important to consider the route of administration in animal studies when assessing the delivery and therapeutic efficacy of a formulation for pulmonary delivery. Careful choice of efficient delivery in response to the condition of lung diseases is necessary. The use of aerosols to deliver medication to the lungs has a long history. Administration by inhalation is a popular and non-invasive method of delivering agents into the lungs. There are several inhalation devices available for the delivery of drugs into the lungs. Metered dose inhalers (MDIs) and dry powder inhalers (DPIs) are the most common modes of inhaled delivery. MDIs are the most commonly used inhalers for several lung diseases, such as asthma, bronchitis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and a spacer is an external device that is attached to an MDI to allow for better drug delivery by enhanced actuation and inhalation coordination. For most MDIs, the propellant is one or more gases called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Although CFCs in drugs are safe for patients to inhale, they are harmful to the environment. Therefore, further development of inhalable siRNAs may not be the best way forward. DPIs are devices that deliver medication to the lungs in the form of dry powder. The use of DPIs has already shown promise for the in vivo delivery of therapeutic macromolecules such as insulin [39] and low-molecular-weight heparin [40] ; thus, it could be a better device for delivering siRNAs to the lungs. The advantages of DPIs are improved stability and sterility of biomolecules over liquid aerosols and propellant-free formation. Although drugs are commonly delivered to the lungs by inhalation, most in vivo studies using siRNAs have relied on intratracheal or intranasal delivery. The reason could be the difficulty in formulating inhalable siRNAs and maintaining the stability during the delivery process. A suitable carrier is also needed to protect nucleic acids from degradation due to shear force and increased temperature during the drying process. The use of spray-drying as a technique for engineering dry powder formulations of siRNA nanoparticles, which might enable the local delivery of biologically active siRNA directly to the lung tissue, has been demonstrated [24, 25] . In the future, the technique is desirable to estimate the in vivo study on siRNA therapy for inhalation. In the long term, we anticipate that there will be more sophisticated devices for clinical use and that those currently being developed will be more suitable. There are two main barriers to efficient pulmonary siRNA delivery to the cells of the lung. The first is the complex, branched anatomy of the lungs and biomechanical barriers, such as the mucus layer covering the airway cells [41, 42] (Figure 2) . A remarkable feature of the respiratory tract is its high degree of branching. Airway consists of respiratory bronchioles, alveolar ducts, and alveolar sacs. All of these structures bear alveoli, the tiny air sacs in which the gas exchange takes place. It is generally acknowledged that the critical factor for efficient siRNA delivery depends on the properties of RNAi drug particles in terms of size, charge, shape, velocity and density. For efficient pulmonary siRNA delivery, the particles must be deposited in the lower respiratory tract. Deposition in the airway is affected by the particle size and patient's pulmonary function. A particle size between 1-5 μm is found to be the most appropriate for deposition at the lower respiratory tract [23] . In addition, the presence of mucus and surfactant proteins, the mucociliary clearance actions, and phagocytosis by macrophages present major barriers to targeted pulmonary delivery. Therefore, delivery systems usually require delivery vectors, and these vectors need to be designed in order to maximize the siRNA deposition to the diseased area of the respiratory tract. Besides, the extracellular barriers to siRNA delivery also depend on physiological features of the respiratory tract, which may change with the disease stage and characteristics of the patient. At the active stage of lung disease, the physiological conditions of the airways might change and have significant impact on the efficiency of the pulmonary delivery system. During infection, inflammation, and allergic reaction, there is an increase in mucus secretion along with the impaired mucociliary clearance [43] . Moreover, asthma and COPD are both chronic inflammatory conditions of the lung associated with structural "remodeling" that is inappropriate to the maintenance of normal lung function [44] . The airway wall thickness, the high viscosity, and the composition of the mucus layer might be altered in patients who have inflammatory lung diseases. Figure 2 . Extracellular barriers to pulmonary siRNA delivery. The anatomical feature of the respiratory tract is its high degree of branching. The mucus lines the respiratory epithelium from the nasal cavity to the terminal bronchioles. The deposited particles on the ciliated epithelial cells are rapidly cleared by the mucociliary clearance actions. Mucus and mucociliary clearance of mucus-trapped particles is a pulmonary defense mechanism as a physiological barrier. In the alveolar, clara cells and type II alveolar cells secrete on the surface of the alveolar epithelium, forming a thin layer of pulmonary surfactants. The surfactants act as the main barrier for siRNA delivery because they reduce the transfection efficiency. In addition, the macrophages located in the alveoli rapidly engulf the foreign particles by phagocytosis. The particles taken up into the macrophages are subsequently degraded inside the cells. These factors present major barriers to targeted pulmonary delivery. The second is the airway cell membrance and its intracellular barriers ( Figure 3 ). For efficient gene silencing in the lungs, siRNAs must be delivered to their site of action, be stable, enter the target cells, and be present in the cytoplasm at sufficient concentration. Once the siRNAs reach the target cells, they must be trafficked into the cytoplasm and taken up by Argonaute (Ago)2/RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC), which degrades mRNAs and, subsequently, suppresses the sequence-specific gene expression. For efficient endocytosis to occur, particles should be under 150 nm in size. Particles within this size range could also avoid macrophage uptake and delayed lung clearance [45] . The physicochemical properties of siRNAs also play a significant role in crossing the biological membrane. Despite their small size, the negative charge and chemical degradability of siRNA molecules prevent them from readily crossing biological membranes. Therefore, efficient siRNA delivery approaches need to overcome this limitation by facilitating cellular uptake. One of the main functions of a delivery vector is to facilitate the cellular uptake of siRNAs [46] . The electrostatic complexation of siRNA molecules with cationic lipids and polymers helps to mask their net negative charge. The positively charged siRNA carrier complex interacts with anionic proteoglycans on the cell membrance, forms an endocytic vesicle, and enters the cells by endocytosis [47] . After cellular internalization, the siRNA carrier complex in endocytic vesicles is transported along microtubules to lysosomes that are co-localized with the microtubule-organizing center. To avoid lysosomal degradation, siRNAs must escape from the endosome into the cytoplasm, where they can associate with the RNAi machinery. Endosomal escape is a major barrier for efficient siRNA delivery [48, 49] . The endosomal entrapment and lysosomal degradation of siRNA and carriers contribute to the low transfection efficiency and is a major difficulty for delivery vectors. An ideal delivery agent should protect siRNAs from enzymatic degradation, facilitate cellular uptake, and promote endosomal escape inside the cells with negligible toxicity. Multiple approaches for the delivery of siRNAs have been reported, ranging from the relatively simple direct administration of saline-formulated siRNAs to lipid-based and polymer-based nanoparticle approaches and siRNA conjugation and complexation approaches [50] . The negative charge and chemical degradability of siRNAs under physiologically relevant conditions make its delivery a major challenge. Accordingly, the delivery of siRNAs usually requires a vector or carriers for their transfection into the target cells. In general, both viral and non-viral vectors are being assessed for siRNA delivery to lung cells. Some viral vectors, such as retroviruses and adenoviruses, have been demonstrated to mediate gene silencing in an in vitro lung model [51] and to induce RNAi in a range of animal tissues [52] . Recently, Guo et al. showed that lentivirus-mediated siRNA was used to specifically knock down the expression of nuclear protein 1 (NUPR1) in vivo, which resulted in inhibited tumor growth [53] . However, viral-based delivery has several disadvantages. The immune response to viruses not only impedes gene delivery but also has the potential to cause severe complications [54] . Recent well-documented cases, such as the death of Jesse Gelsinger due to complications related with an adenoviral delivery vector, highlight this problem [55] . In addition, some viral vectors may insert their genome at random positions in the host chromosome, which eventually restrict the gene function [56] . . Intracellular barriers to pulmonary siRNA delivery. Barriers to cellular internalization are dependent on the surface properties of siRNA and carriers (e.g., charge and size). After siRNAs are successfully taken into the target cells by endocytosis, the main barriers for delivering siRNAs to its site of action are the endosomal entrapment and lysosomal degradation of siRNA and carriers. To direct target-gene silencing, the siRNAs need to escape from the endosome into the cytoplasm, where they associate with the Ago2/RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC) to direct the cleavage of mRNAs bearing complementary binding sites. As an alternative to viral vectors, non-viral vectors, including lipid and polymer-based vectors, have been generally used for the delivery of siRNAs to the lungs due to their reduced toxicity [57] . Ongoing research into the transfection of primary cells and whole organisms with siRNA using non-viral transfection agents has produced some promising results. Lipid-based delivery vectors are successfully used to deliver siRNA in vitro and in vivo [58] . Cationic lipids are composed of positively charged head, a linker and hydrophobic. In general, lipid-based complexes are easy to formulate and good transfection efficacy is achieved due to interaction with negative charged cell membrance. Many commercial siRNA transfection agents are lipid-based delivery system, some of which are also employed for pulmonary delivery-DharmFECT [30] , Oligofectamine [59] , Lipofectamine [60] and TransIT-TKO [35] . Similarly, cationic polymers have also been assessed for siRNA delivery to lung cells. Cationic polymer polyethylenimine (PEI) is widely used for siRNA delivery [13, 61] . PEI is considered as the gold standard for in vitro gene delivery and its transfection efficiency depends on the molecular weight and degree of branching. On the other hand, lipid-based vectors can also induce toxicity and non-specific activation of inflammatory cytokine and interferon responses [62, 63] . Although polymer-based vectors elicit a relatively less strong immune response than lipid-based vectors, effective siRNA delivery to a local area in lung diseases requires more attention to the development of non-toxic delivery vectors. An important point for siRNA-mediated inhibition of gene expression is whether the observed effects are specific rather than due to off-target effects and free from potential interferon responses [64, 65] . Interestingly, some studies have shown that it was possible to administer "naked siRNAs" to mice and down-regulate an endogenous or exogenous target without inducing an interferon response [66] . The term "naked siRNAs" refers to the delivery of siRNAs without any delivery vectors. Naked siRNAs are degraded by serum endonucleases and are usually removed by glomerular filtration, resulting in a short plasma half-life of < 10 min. Thus, some studies of systemic delivery of naked siRNAs have failed to achieve the downregulation of the targeted gene [67, 68] . In contrast, there have also been some successes of locally delivering naked siRNAs to the lungs [15, 16, 20, 31] . A few of them reported that the use of delivery vectors showed no significant difference in gene silencing efficiency compared to that of naked siRNAs [16, 35] . Indeed, in one clinical trial, the delivery of naked siRNAs for the treatment of RSV has been used [17, 38] . This successful evidence can be because that naked siRNAs for clinical applications are highly chemically modified to prevent nuclease-induced degradation and presumably minimize immune stimulatory effects. Although it is unclear how the naked siRNAs cross the cell membrane, gain access to the cytoplasm, and remain intact to perform their biological action, both animal and human trials have been conducted successfully, showing the efficacy of naked siRNAs (ALN-RSV01) that were administered intranasally. This explanation has not been confirmed, but the physiological damage of respiratory epithelial cells caused by viral infection may have possibly influenced the mystery. The active change in airway epithelial cell membrance caused by infectious disease might affect cellular internalization. Naked siRNA delivery has some advantages, such as simple formation and the absence of toxicity or inflammatory responses that are usually associated with delivery vectors. Nevertheless, the advantage of naked siRNAs over delivery vectors in the treatment of lung diseases is controversial [69, 70] . Further in vivo investigations about both naked siRNAs and non-viral vectors are required. Lung disease is a major cause of death, and diminished quality of life is responsible for the suffering of many patients. Various lung diseases make life extremely difficult for the patients, and severe cases of these lung diseases can result in death. The high death rates associated with lung cancer are partially due to the fact that it is unfortunately difficult to cure. Above all, COPD is the fourth-leading cause of death in most industrialized countries and is predicted to become third by 2020 [71] . Therefore, decisive action is needed to stem the rising health and economic burden this represents. Chronic lung diseases, such as COPD and asthma, are disorders of the airways largely related to the presence of persistent inflammation. The approval of inhaled corticosteroids pioneered a new generation of therapy in treating chronic inflammatory diseases. This was the first time that an anti-inflammatory product was available to reduce the characteristic lung inflammation in airways and the associated obstruction. Corticosteroids are still an important therapeutic intervention. However, they are used with limitations in COPD and moderate to severe asthma. Likewise, the treatment of various refractory lung diseases also depends on systemic corticosteroid therapy. Many of these patients also suffered various side effects from systemic corticosteroid use, such as weight gain and uncontrolled hyperglycemia. Treatment of lung disease using cell-specific targeting as well as RNAi techniques represents a novel strategy and could possibly provide new opportunities in nanomedicine. Pulmonary applications of siRNA in in vivo conditions are frequently studied and often result in clinical trials [57, 72] . The findings of recent clinical studies of pulmonary RNAi therapeutics are discussed. Since the discovery of RNAi, the therapeutic potential of siRNAs has been rapidly recognized. In 2004, the first human clinical trial of RNAi-based therapy was initiated for the treatment of age-related macular degeneration with a siRNA targeting VEGF-receptor 1 delivered intravitreally [73] . Many studies have been conducted over the past few years that involve the delivery of siRNAs to the lungs for the treatment of various lung diseases. Delivery to the lungs will be most important to moving siRNA technology into the clinic. A number of siRNA-based therapies are being evaluated in clinical trials for the treatment of different conditions, including lung diseases such as asthma and RSV infection. Table 1 is a summary of clinical trials of siRNA-based therapeutics [74] . SiRNA shows potential for the treatment of various pulmonary viral infections, and it has been reported that siRNA-based therapeutics can also be used in the treatment of influenza [13] , parainfluenza virus [35] , severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [14] , and RSV [35] . Above all, RSV is the most promising therapeutic target of siRNAs. RSV is a common cause of serious respiratory infections in infants and children. It also produces significant morbidity and mortality in adult immunocompromised or elderly populations [75] . An RSV vaccine is not available, and the only approved antiviral therapy for RSV is undesirable for pediatric patients due to its potential teratogenicity and limited effectiveness. Thus, a safe and efficacious RSV therapy has long been awaited for both pediatric and adult patients. RNAi-based therapy has shown promising effects in murine models of RSV infection [35] . The siRNA, ALN-RSV01, is directed against the mRNA encoding the N-protein of RSV that exhibits specific in vitro and in vivo anti-RSV activity. It is delivered without a delivery vector as a nasal spray and targets the upper respiratory tract instead of the lower lung area. ALN-RSV01 has undergone complete phase I intranasal and inhalation studies in healthy adults and has been found to be generally well tolerated [38] . Additionally, ALN-RSV01 has been evaluated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase II trial in lung transplant patients with RSV respiratory tract infection [76] . The administration of ALN-RSV01 to RSV infected lung transplant patients was safe and well tolerated and associated with a statistically significant improvement in symptoms. Based on these results, a larger multinational, randomized, double-blind Phase IIb trial of ALN-RSV01 has been initiated in lung transplant patients to confirm and extend these findings. Cancer is a major target of RNAi-based therapy, as oncogenes, mutated tumor suppressor genes, and several other genes contributing to tumor progression are potentially important targets for gene silencing by RNAi. Lung cancer is one of the most frequent tumors worldwide with regard to incidence rates and mortality. Patients with lung cancer are commonly diagnosed at an advanced stage of the disease and have limited therapeutic options. Although the knowledge regarding the genetic and molecular basis of lung cancer has regularly increased, the median survival rates of individuals with advanced lung cancer are still poor. RNAi-based therapy is an attractive strategy for the development of more effective anticancer therapies with reduced treatment-related toxicity. The major advantage of RNAi therapeutics in cancer might be the simultaneous targeting of multiple genes belonging to different cellular pathways that are involved in tumor progression. The simultaneously inhibition of several genes would also minimize the risk of drug resistance normally encountered with small molecule-based therapies, involving siRNAs and miRNAs. There have already been significant improvements in siRNAs for primary or metastatic lung cancer treatment by targeting oncogenes such as Akt1 [9] , Wilms tumor 1 (WT1) [12] , overexpressed genes such as the insulin-like growth factor receptor 1 (IGF-1R) [77] , NUPR1 [53] and EZH2 [78] . Some of these studies have successfully shown the efficacy of RNAi-based therapy through intrapulmonary administration of siRNAs with non-viral vectors. Although strategies to minimize off-target and nonspecific immune stimulatory effects must be devised, these data suggest that the silencing of the target gene with siRNAs is an attractive strategy for the prevention and treatment of primary and metastatic lung cancer. There are currently some clinical trials in progress estimating the safety and efficacy of siRNA-based drugs for cancer treatment. Atu027, a siRNA-lipoplex targeted against protein kinase N3 (PKN3), prevented lung metastasis in a phase I trial of various cancer models [79] . PKN3 is a downstream effector of the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) signaling pathway [80] , which regulates diverse cellular responses, including development, growth, and survival [81] . Recently, PKN3 has also been considered as a suitable therapeutic target for modulating tumor angiogenesis because loss of function analysis with Atu027 in cultured primary endothelial cells showed an essential role of PKN3 for endothelial tube formation and migration [79] . Atu027 can be considered as a potential siRNA for preventing lung metastasis and might be suitable for preventing hematogenous metastasis combined with conventional cancer therapy. Inflammatory lung disease, also called COPD, includes a wide range of lung ailments. These related diseases include asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, and chronic bronchitis. They are influenced by a combination of environmental, genetic, and epigenetic components [82] . COPD is a chronic inflammatory disease of the airways. This disease is hallmarked by airflow that is not fully reversible. Systemic and local airway inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of COPD [83] . COPD is mainly associated with tobacco smoking, and recent studies investigating the pathophysiology of emphysema have demonstrated that cigarette smoke can cause cells to enter cellular senescence. Smoking might cause cells to senesce due to DNA damage through increased cell turnover, which in turn leads to accelerated telomere shortening [84] . Lately, a lot of studies have investigated the role of cellular senescence in the development and progression of COPD [85] . Although several medication classes, including inhaled corticosteroids, are used for COPD treatment, none of these medications have been shown to significantly improve long-term lung function during the progression of the disease. Current interventions that have been shown to improve mortality in COPD are cessation of smoking and delivery of supplemental oxygen when hypoxemia is present. Many people are developing COPD, and the cause of this condition is complicated and not thoroughly understood. One key factor is genetic susceptibility. Some studies have shown a large genetic contribution to the variability in pulmonary function and COPD [86, 87] . Polymorphisms in multiple genes have been reported to be associated with COPD [87] , such as transcription factor [e.g. nuclear factor-kappa B (NFκB)] [88] , extracellular matrix (e.g., matrix metalloproteinase-12 (MMP-12)) [89, 90] , cytokines [e.g. tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α] [91] , chemokines [e.g. interleukins (IL)-8, IL-8 receptor and chemokine receptor (CCR)1] [92, 93] , and apoptosis (e.g., caspase-3 and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)) [94, 95] . Many of these have been identified as possible targets for therapeutic intervention using molecule inhibitors or antagonists. Although several new treatments that target the inflammatory process are now in clinical development, such as TNF-α inhibitors and I-kappaB kinase complex 2 (IKK2) inhibitors [96, 97] , clinical trials with siRNAs have never been performed in COPD. The delay of drug development for COPD might be due to the relatively recent emergence of research addressing the molecular basis of COPD. Furthermore, more research is needed to understand the essential molecular mechanisms about the pathogenesis of COPD and to develop monitoring techniques to support the development of RNAi therapies. Currently, no available treatments reduce the progression of COPD or suppress the inflammation in small airways and lung parenchyma. The RNAi-based approach for the key molecules also has potential implications for the treatment of COPD. Asthma is also a chronic inflammatory disease of the airways characterized by variable and recurring symptoms and reversible airflow obstruction. The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million people are currently affected and that, by the year 2025, another 100 million will be affected by the disease [98] . Inhaled corticosteroids are very effective in mild asthma because they improve symptoms and decrease exacerbations. However, in moderate and severe asthma, inhaled corticosteroids have important therapeutic limitations. Although corticosteroids remain an important therapeutic intervention for inflammatory lung diseases, their use is not always completely effective and is associated with side effects. Due to such limitations, it is clear that there is a need for new types of medications that can treat and improve the prognosis of moderate to severe asthma. Many target genes have been identified that participate in the pathogenesis of asthma. The most promising targets include genes coding for cytokines (IL-4, IL5, and IL-13), cytokine and chemokine receptors (IL-4 receptor and CCR3), and tyrosine kinases [spleen tyrosine kinase (Syk) and LCK/YES-related novel tyrosine kinase (Lyn)], as well as for transcription factors [signal transducers and activators of transcription 1 (STAT1), STAT6, GATA3, and NFκB] that are involved in asthma [19, 99, 100] . The genes that have been assessed as siRNA targets for the treatment of asthma in preclinical models are reported [101] . Currently, in a clinical trial for asthma, Excellair TM (ZaBeCor, Bala Cynwyd, PA, USA), a siRNA that targets Syk, is being used. The kinase is involved in signaling from a B cell receptor and is a key regulator of downstream signaling cascades that ultimately lead to the activation of several pro-inflammatory transcription factors. It has been reported that antisense oligonucleotides administered by aerosol were potent to decrease Syk expression, mediator release from alveolar macrophages, and Syk-dependent pulmonary inflammation [102] . Moreover, inhibition of inflammatory mediators was shown in a study using siRNA targeting Syk in airway epithelial cells [103] . Following the successful results of the company's Phase I clinical trial, a Phase II trial for its asthma drug candidate Excellair TM has already been initiated. Some of the current treatments for asthma and other inflammatory conditions, such as TNF-α inhibitors or leukotriene inhibitors, inhibit only one of the mediators of inflammation. In contrast, siRNA targeting Syk seeks to inhibit an initial signaling step of inflammation and, thereby, prevent the release of multiple inflammatory mediators. Overall, recent progress of siRNAs to the lungs has also improved the therapeutic feasibility of RNAi for inflammatory lung diseases. The rapid progress will put siRNA-based therapeutics on a fast track to the clinic. MiRNAs are small endogenous noncoding RNAs that regulate gene expression by repressing translation or promoting the degradation of their target mRNA. MiRNAs regulate gene expression by binding to the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of their target mRNAs and mediating mRNA degradation or translational inhibition. In the human genome, transcripts of approximately 60% of all mRNAs are estimated to be targeted by miRNAs [104] . According to their function, miRNAs play an important role in cellular processes as development, proliferation, and apoptosis of pulmonary pathologies [105] . A growing number of miRNAs have been shown to be involved in different lung diseases. This evidence makes miRNAs a promising technology for current and future therapeutic development. We discuss the role of some miRNAs in various lung diseases as well as the possible future of these discoveries in clinical applications. Table 2 shows the summary of miRNAs in therapeutic development. At this point, a miRNA-based therapy has already entered a phase II clinical trial. There is evidence that upregulation or downregulation of miRNAs is critical for lung homeostasis and, thus, may contribute to the development of pathological pulmonary conditions. Many studies have focused on the role of miRNAs in inflammatory lung diseases, such as COPD [116, 117] , pulmonary fibrosis [118] [119] [120] [121] , and asthma [122] [123] [124] [125] (Table 3) . [130] [117, 129] The pathogenesis of COPD is attributed to not only chronic inflammation in the airways but also systemic inflammation [131] . Cigarette smoking is the main risk factor for the development of COPD. Smoking has been shown to cause biological change in the gene expression of the lungs [132] , and there are some reports about smoking-related miRNAs [117, 129, 130] . However, there are few reports that focus on the miRNAs related to the pathogenesis of this disease with systemic inflammatory components. Recent study on pulmonary fibroblasts of COPD patients presents less expression of miR-146a after stimulation with proinflammatory cytokines when compared with non-COPD subjects with similar smoking histories [127] . The downregulation of miR-146a resulted in a prolonged mRNA half-life of cyclooxygenase-2, thus increasing prostaglandin E2 in fibroblasts from COPD subjects. Moreover, Ezzie et al. researched the difference of miRNA profiles expressed in the lungs of smokers with and without COPD. They concluded that miR-223 and miR-1274a were the most affected miRNAs in subjects with COPD [126] . Yet, COPD is a complex, multi-component, and heterogeneous disorder with a number of different pathological processes and subgroups with their own characteristics and natural history [133] . A better understanding of the complexity of the disease and potential clinical relevance of the identified miRNAs is needed. Pulmonary fibrosis can be caused by an identifiable irritation to the lungs, but, in many cases, the cause is unknown, and the therapeutic possibilities are limited. Cigarette smoking is one of the most recognized risk factors for the development of pulmonary fibrosis. This disorder is mainly accompanied by increased expression of the key fibrotic mediator transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) and other cytokines produced at the lesion of active fibrosis [128] . Recently, it was reported that miRNAs may play an important regulatory role in the pulmonary fibrotic change in the lungs. The downregulation of let-7d in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) resulted in increased collagen deposition and alveolar septal thickening [119] . In addition, Liu et al. reported that the oncogenic miR-21 was found to be upregulated in IPF patients and in the murine lungs with bleomycin-induced fibrosis [118] . Although these miRNAs may be potential therapeutic targets because their expression is related to the regulation of TGF-β, the factor is necessary but not sufficient for pathologic fibrosis of the lungs. Pulmonary fibrosis is also a complicated illness that can have many different causes. Focus on the role of miRNAs in asthma has recently increased. Asthma is an inflammatory disease of the airway that is characterized by an abnormal response of T helper-2 (Th2)-type CD4+T lymphocytes against inhaled allergens [134] . In a different asthmatic mouse model, there was an observed increase in the expression of miR-21 in the lungs [123] . This report might contribute to the understanding of the inflammatory mechanism in the airway through the inhibition of IL-12, favoring the Th2 lymphocyte response. A toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-induced Th2 lymphocyte induces high expression of miR-126, and selective blockade of miR-126 suppressed the asthmatic phenotype [124] . In addition, airway remodeling is a characteristic feature of asthma and has important functional implications. Rodriguez et al. have shown that miR-155 is related to the development of inflammatory infiltration into the lung and airway remodeling [122] . Thus, some studies present a functional connection between miRNA expression and asthma pathogenesis and suggest that targeting miRNAs in the airways may lead to anti-inflammatory treatments for allergic asthma. Despite the evidence from experimental models, the expression profiling of miRNAs in airway biopsies from patients with mild asthma before and after treatment with inhaled corticosteroids and in healthy volunteers revealed no differences in miRNA expression [135] . Further investigations about the role of miRNAs related to asthma pathogenesis are required. Although the basic evidence of miRNA biology is still providing new insights, applications of miRNA-based therapy for inflammatory lung diseases are less advanced than those for lung cancer [136] . One reason for this could be that the disease heterogeneity is caused by the effects of many environmental air pollutants, including smoke and volatile organic compounds. The presence of several risk factors makes the understanding of the pathogenesis of inflammatory lung diseases complicated. Understanding the role that miRNAs play in the modulation of gene expression, leading to sustain the pathogenesis of lung diseases, is important for the development of new therapies that focus on the prevention of disease progression and symptom relief. Given the significant roles that miRNAs play in multiple pathways of lung carcinogenesis, increasing efforts are dedicated to the research and development of miRNA-based therapies, including restoring functions of tumor suppressive miRNAs or inhibiting oncogenic miRNAs. The development of miRNA-based therapies for lung cancer is growing prosperously with the help of new RNAi technologies. Compared to siRNA-based therapies, which are already in clinical trials, miRNAs are less toxic and have the potential to target multiple genes. The difficulty associated with miRNA delivery is mainly equal to that of siRNAs. The critical problems for the development of this therapy are effective delivery into target sites, potency of the therapy, and elimination of off-target effects [137] . There are two strategies as the therapeutic applications of miRNAs for lung cancer [138] . One strategy is miRNA replacement therapy, which involves the re-introduction of a tumor suppressor miRNA mimic to restore a loss of the function. MiRNA mimics are synthetic RNA duplexes designed to mimic the endogenous functions of miRNAs with chemical modifications for stability and cellular uptake. The concept of miRNA replacement therapy is most exemplified by the let-7 miRNA. let-7 is a tumor-suppressor miRNA in non-small-cell lung cancer that inversely correlates with the expression of the RAS oncoprotein, a key cancer gene [139] . Intranasal administration of let-7 mimic into mouse models of lung cancer significantly reduced tumor growth, suggesting that miRNA replacement therapy is indeed promising [106, 140, 141] . Another miRNA that shows the value of miRNA replacement is provided by miR-34a [107, 142] . Local and/or systemic delivery of a synthetic miR-34a mimic led to accumulation of miR-34a in the tumor tissue and inhibition of lung tumor growth. Lately, Ling et al. also showed that tumor suppressor miR-22 exhibited anti-lung cancer activity through post-transcriptional regulation of ErbB3 [143] . Thus, therapeutic miRNA mimics have a powerful potential by attacking multiple genes relevant to several diseases. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the potential toxicity in normal tissues under conditions in which the therapeutic delivery of miRNA mimics will lead to an accumulation of exogenous miRNAs in normal cells [138] . Although the assumptions are well founded, there is still insufficient evidence for toxicity caused by miRNA mimics. Indeed, several in vivo studies failed to reveal side effects caused by the miRNA mimics and suggested that delivery of miRNA mimics to normal tissues was well tolerated [107, 141] . It will be important to research miRNA mimic-induced effects in normal cells and to carefully assess toxicity before using them in clinical practice. The second strategy is directed toward a gain of function and aims to inhibit oncomiRs by using anti-miRNAs. Chemical modifications, such as 2'-O-methyl-group and locked nucleic acid (LNA), would increase oligo stability against nucleases [144] . Antisense oligonucleotides contained in these modifications are termed antagomirs or "LNA-antimiRs" [144, 145] . They are oligonucleotides with sequences complementary to the endogenous miRNA and inhibit the specific miRNA function. An LNA-antimiR against miR-122 has been shown to effectively silence miR-122 in non-human primates [145] , and the findings support the potential of these compounds as a new class of therapeutics. Moreover, it has also been reported that anti-miR-150 delivered into lung tumor xenografts in mice led to inhibited tumor growth [146] . Relative to studies on miRNA mimics, studies with antisense oligonucleotides have shown effective evidence with naked oligonucleotides. This illustrates the potential of chemical modifications of oligonucleotides to improve their stability, resistance to RNase, and pharmacologic properties. Therefore, inhibition of miRNA function by chemically modified antimiR oligonucleotides has become an important and widely used approach. Recent data from the first phase II study in patients with chronic HCV infection treated with the LNA-modified antimiR-122 showed that this compound was well tolerated and provided continuing viral suppression. An increasing number of studies have examined the therapeutic potential of miRNAs. Recently, the evidence of roles for miRNAs in determining drug resistance has emerged [147] . Cytotoxic and molecular target drugs have been widely used in the treatment of advanced lung cancer; unfortunately, many cases are still refractory to chemotherapy. In this situation, combining miRNA mimics or antimiR with chemotherapy may potentiate the efficacy of the cancer treatment in the future. In addition, miRNAs related with cancer stem cells may significantly broaden the field of miRNA-based therapy and suggest that miRNAs can be potential tools to kill cancer cells associated with therapy resistance, recurrence, and metastasis [108, 148] . Hence, the main challenge is the successful delivery and chemical modifications of the therapeutic miRNAs to the target tissue without harming normal tissues. RNAi-based approaches provide a promising therapeutic modality for the treatment of various lung diseases. One of the greatest challenges in RNAi-based therapy continues to be the delivery method of the therapeutic siRNAs and miRNAs to the target cells. Pulmonary delivery applications are very attractive, since they tend to be non-invasive, are locally restricted, and can be administered by the patient. A realistic therapeutic intervention, such as aerosolization, can enhance drug delivery to the site of action and decrease systemic exposure of the patient to the therapy, thereby reducing off-target effects. The advancement of pulmonary siRNA delivery to the clinic illustrates that RNAi-based therapy holds a central place in the future treatment of lung diseases. On the other hand, miRNAs have the opportunity to target multiple genes in a fine-tuned manner, and the miRNA-based therapy will provide an attractive anti-tumor and anti-inflammatory approach for various lung diseases. In particular, anti-miRNA therapy by chemically modified antimiR oligonucleotides has become a potential therapy for lung diseases because the oligonucleotides can be successfully delivered without delivery vectors. Increased evidence has indicated that miRNAs fulfill causative roles in a variety of lung diseases and have prompted investigations into their potential as therapeutic targets. Further understanding of the detailed mechanisms of RNAi-based therapy and investigations of more effective delivery methods are required for future development. These novel approaches could open new avenues for various lung diseases and improve the clinical outcome of the patients.

How are siRNAs typically delivered for systemic effect?

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 SHA: 018269476cd191365d6b8bed046078aea07c8c01 Authors: Yin, Tian-Mu Chen; Jia, Rui; Qiu-Peng, Wang; Ze-Yu, Zhao; Jing-An, Cui; Ling Date: 2020 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 License: cc-by Abstract: Background As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea. Text: On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020, was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January [1] . It is reported that the virus might be bat origin [2] , and the transmission of the virus might related to a seafood market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) exposure [3, 4] . The genetic features and some clinical findings of the infection have been reported recently [4] [5] [6] . Potentials for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed [7] . Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus. There were several researches focusing on mathematical modelling [3, 8] . These researches focused on calculating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) by using the serial intervals and intrinsic growth rate [3, 9, 10] , or using ordinary differential equations and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods [8] . However, the bat origin and the transmission route form the seafood market to people were not considered in the published models. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model, and R 0 was calculated based on the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. The reported cases of SARS-CoV-2, which have been named as COVID-19, were collected for the modelling study from a published literature [3] . As reported by Li et al. [3] , the onset date of the first case was on 7 December, 2020, and the seafood market was closed on 1 January, 2020 [11] . The epidemic curve from 7 December, 2019 to 1 January, 2020 was collected for our study, and the simulation time step was 1 day. fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, with tolerance set at 0.001, was used to perform curve fitting. While the curve fitting is in progress, Berkeley Madonna displays the root mean square deviation between the data and best run so far. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was employed to assess the goodness-of-fit. SPSS 13.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) was employed to calculate the R 2 . The Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model The BHRP transmission network model was posted to bioRxiv on 19 January, 2020 [12] . We assumed that the virus transmitted among the bats, and then transmitted to unknown hosts (probably some wild animals). The hosts were hunted and sent to the seafood market which was defined as the reservoir of the virus. People exposed to the market got the risks of the infection (Fig. 1) . The BHRP transmission network model was based on the following assumptions or facts: a) The bats were divided into four compartments: susceptible bats (S B ), exposed bats (E B ), infected bats (I B ), and removed bats (R B ). The birth rate and death rate of bats were defined as n B and m B . In this model, we set Ʌ B = n B × N B as the number of the newborn bats where N B refer to the total number of bats. The incubation period of bat infection was defined as 1/ω B and the infectious period of bat infection was defined as 1/γ B . The S B will be infected through sufficient contact with I B , and the transmission rate was defined as β B . b) The hosts were also divided into four compartments: susceptible hosts (S H ), exposed hosts (E H ), infected hosts (I H ), and removed hosts (R H ). The birth rate and death rate of hosts were defined as n H and m H . In this model, we set Ʌ H = n H × N H where N H refer to the total number of hosts. The incubation period of host infection was defined as 1/ω H and the infectious period of host infection was defined as 1/γ H . The S H will be infected through sufficient contact with I B and I H , and the transmission rates were defined as β BH and β H , respectively. c) The SARS-CoV-2 in reservoir (the seafood market) was denoted as W. We assumed that the retail purchases rate of the hosts in the market was a, and that the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the purchases was I H /N H , therefore, the rate of the SARS-CoV-2 in W imported form the hosts was aWI H /N H where N H was the total number of hosts. We also assumed that symptomatic infected people and asymptomatic infected people could export the virus into W with the rate of μ P and μ' P , although this assumption might occur in a low probability. The virus in W will subsequently leave the W compartment at a rate of εW, where 1/ε is the lifetime of the virus. d) The people were divided into five compartments: susceptible people (S P ), exposed people (E P ), symptomatic infected people (I P ), asymptomatic infected people (A P ), and removed people (R P ) including recovered and death people. The birth rate and death rate of people were defined as n P and m P . In this model, we set Ʌ P = n P × N P where N P refer to the total number of people. The incubation period and latent period of human infection was defined as 1/ω P and 1/ω' P . The infectious period of I P and A P was defined as 1/γ P and 1/γ' P . The proportion of asymptomatic infection was defined as δ P . The S P will be infected through sufficient contact with W and I P , and the transmission rates were defined as β W and β P , respectively. We also assumed that the transmissibility of A P was κ times that of I P , where 0 ≤ κ ≤ 1. The parameters of the BHRP model were shown in Table 1 . We assumed that the SARS-CoV-2 might be imported to the seafood market in a short time. Therefore, we added the further assumptions as follows: a) The transmission network of Bats-Host was ignored. b) Based on our previous studies on simulating importation [13, 14] , we set the initial value of W as following impulse function: In the function, n, t 0 and t i refer to imported volume of the SARS-CoV-2 to the market, start time of the simulation, and the interval of the importation. Therefore, the BHRP model was simplified as RP model and is shown as follows: During the outbreak period, the natural birth rate and death rate in the population was in a relative low level. However, people would commonly travel into and out from Wuhan City mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Therefore, n P and m P refer to the rate of people traveling into Wuhan City and traveling out from Wuhan City, respectively. In the model, people and viruses have different dimensions. Based on our previous research [15] , we therefore used the following sets to perform the normalization: In the normalization, parameter c refers to the relative shedding coefficient of A P compared to I P . The normalized RP model is changed as follows: The transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 based on the RP model In this study, we used the R 0 to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Commonly, R 0 was defined as the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population [13, 16, 17] . If R 0 > 1, the outbreak will occur. If R 0 < 1, the outbreak will toward an end. In this study, R 0 was deduced from the RP model by the next generation matrix approach [18] . The multiple of the transmissibility of A P to that of I P . The parameters were estimated based on the following facts and assumptions: a) The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.1-7.0) [3] . We set the same value (5.2 days) of the incubation period and the latent period in this study. Thus, ω P = ω' P = 0.1923. b) There is a mean 5-day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalization of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalized from 3 to 7 days after onset, respectively) [19] [20] [21] . The duration from illness onset to first medical visit for the 45 patients with illness onset before January 1 was estimated to have a mean of 5.8 days (95% CI: 4.3-7.5) [3] . In our model, we set the infectious period of the cases as 5.8 days. Therefore, γ P = 0.1724. c) Since there was no data on the proportion of asymptomatic infection of the virus, we simulated the baseline value of proportion of 0.5 (δ P = 0.5). d) Since there was no evidence about the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection, we assumed that the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection was 0.5 times that of symptomatic infection (κ = 0.5), which was the similar value as influenza [22] . We assumed that the relative shedding rate of A P compared to I P was 0.5. Thus, c = 0.5. e) Since 14 January, 2020, Wuhan City has strengthened the body temperature detection of passengers leaving Wuhan at airports, railway stations, long-distance bus stations and passenger terminals. As of January 17, a total of nearly 0.3 million people had been tested for body temperature [23] . In Wuhan, there are about 2.87 million mobile population [24] . We assumed that there was 0.1 million people moving out to Wuhan City per day since January 10, 2020, and we believe that this number would increase (mainly due to the winter vacation and the Chinese New Year holiday) until 24 January, 2020. This means that the 2.87 million would move out from Wuhan City in about 14 days. Therefore, we set the moving volume of 0.2 million per day in our model. Since the population of Wuhan was about 11 million at the end of 2018 [25] , the rate of people traveling out from Wuhan City would be 0.018 (0.2/11) per day. However, we assumed that the normal population mobility before January 1 was 0.1 times as that after January 10. Therefore, we set the rate of people moving into and moving out from Wuhan City as 0.0018 per day (n P = m P = 0.0018). f) The parameters b P and b W were estimated by fitting the model with the collected data. g) At the beginning of the simulation, we assumed that the prevalence of the virus in the market was 1/100000. h) Since the SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, we assumed that it could be died in the environment in a short time, but it could be stay for a longer time (10 days) in the unknown hosts in the market. We set ε = 0.1. In this study, we assumed that the incubation period (1/ ω P ) was the same as latent period (1/ω' P ) of human infection, thus ω P = ω' P . Based on the equations of RP model, we can get the disease free equilibrium point as: In the matrix: By the next generation matrix approach, we can get the next generation matrix and R 0 for the RP model: The R 0 of the normalized RP model is shown as follows: Our modelling results showed that the normalized RP model fitted well to the reported SARS-CoV-2 cases data (R 2 = 0.512, P < 0.001) (Fig. 2) . The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person, and from person to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. In this study, we developed RP transmission model, which considering the routes from reservoir to person and from person to person of SARS-CoV-2 respectively. We used the models to fit the reported data in Wuhan City, China from published literature [3] . The simulation results showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 3.58 from person to person. There was a research showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) [8] . Another research showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9) [3] . The different values might be due to the different methods. The methods which Li et al. employed were based on the epidemic growth rate of the epidemic curve and the serial interval [3] . Our previous study showed that several methods could be used to calculate the R 0 based on the epidemic growth rate of the epidemic curve and the serial interval, and different methods might result in different values of R 0 [26] . Our results also showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.30 from reservoir to person which was lower than that of person to person. This means that the transmission route was mainly from person to person rather than from reservoir to person in the early stage of the transmission in Wuhan City. However, this result was based on the limited data from a published literature, and it might not show the real situation at the early stage of the transmission. Researches showed that the R 0 of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was about 2.7-3.4 or 2-4 in Hong Kong, China [27, 28] . Another research found that the R 0 of SARS was about 2.1 in Hong Kong, China, 2.7 in Singapore, and 3.8 in Beijing, China [29] . Therefore, we believe that the commonly acceptable average value of the R 0 of SARS might be 2.9 [30] . The transmissibility of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is much lower than SARS. The reported value of the R 0 of MERS was about 0.8-1.3 [31] , with the inter-human transmissibility of the disease was about 0.6 or 0.9 in Middle East countries [32] . However, MERS had a high transmissibility in the outbreak in the Republic of Korea with the R 0 of 2.5-7.2 [33, 34] . Therefore, the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 might be higher than MERS in the Middle East countries, similar to SARS, but lower than MERS transmitted in the Republic of Korea. To contain the transmission of the virus, it is important to decrease R 0 . According to the equation of R 0 deduced from the simplified RP model, R 0 is related to many parameters. The mainly parameters which could be changed were b P , b W , and γ. Interventions such as wearing masks and increasing social distance could decrease the b P , the intervention that close the seafood market could decrease the b W , and shorten the duration form symptoms onset to be diagnosed could decrease 1/γ. All these interventions could decrease the effective reproduction number and finally be helpful to control the transmission. Since there are too many parameters in our model, several limitations exist in this study. Firstly, we did not use the detailed data of the SARS-CoV-2 to perform the estimation instead of using the data from literatures [3] . We simulated the natural history of the infection that the proportion of asymptomatic infection was 50%, and the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection was half of that of symptomatic infection, which were different to those of MERS and SARS. It is known that the proportion of asymptomatic infection of MERS and SARS was lower than 10%. Secondly, the parameters of population mobility were not from an accurate dataset. Thirdly, since there was no data of the initial prevalence of the virus in the seafood market, we assumed the initial value of 1/100 000. This assumption might lead to the simulation been under-or over-estimated. In addition, since we did not consider the changing rate of the individual's activity (such as wearing masks, increasing social distance, and not to travel to Wuhan City), the estimation of importation of the virus might not be correct. All these limitations will lead to the uncertainty of our results. Therefore, the accuracy and the validity of the estimation would be better if the models fit the first-hand data on the population mobility and the data on the natural history, the epidemiological characteristics, and the transmission mechanism of the virus. By calculating the published data, our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 might be higher than MERS in the Middle East countries, similar to SARS, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea. Since the objective of this study was to provide a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the R 0 was estimated based on limited data which published in a literature. More data were needed to estimate the transmissibility accurately.

What was the mean incubation period?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What have recent epigenetic studies indicated?

A novel anti-mycobacterial function of mitogen-activated protein kinase phosphatase-1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2804704/ SHA: f6ed1f1e9999e57793addb1c9c54f61c7861a995 Authors: Cheung, Benny KW; Yim, Howard CH; Lee, Norris CM; Lau, Allan SY Date: 2009-12-17 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2172-10-64 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the world. To combat against this pathogen, immune cells release cytokines including tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), which is pivotal in the development of protective granulomas. Our previous results showed that Bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG), a mycobacterium used as a model to investigate the immune response against MTB, stimulates the induction of TNF-α via mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) in human blood monocytes. Since MAPK phosphatase-1 (MKP-1) is known to regulate MAPK activities, we examined whether MKP-1 plays a role in BCG-induced MAPK activation and cytokine expression. RESULTS: Primary human blood monocytes were treated with BCG and assayed for MKP-1 expression. Our results demonstrated that following exposure to BCG, there was an increase in the expression of MKP-1. Additionally, the induction of MKP-1 was regulated by p38 MAPK and extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/2). Surprisingly, when MKP-1 expression was blocked by its specific siRNA, there was a significant decrease in the levels of phospho-MAPK (p38 MAPK and ERK1/2) and TNF-α inducible by BCG. CONCLUSIONS: Since TNF-α is pivotal in granuloma formation, the results indicated an unexpected positive function of MKP-1 against mycobacterial infection as opposed to its usual phosphatase activity. Text: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the world, especially in the developing countries [1] . The disease is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) and approximately one third of the world's population has been infected by this pathogen. In a recent report, World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that there are 9.2 million new TB cases around the world in 2006 [1] . In response to MTB infection, induction of cytokines by immune cells is an important defense mechanism. The infected macrophages secrete intercellular signaling factors, proinflammatory cytokines, to mediate the inflammatory response leading to the formation of granuloma and induction of T-cell mediated immunity [2] . In order to understand TB pathogenesis, signaling pathways induced by mycobacteria have long been a subject of interest. Mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPKs) including extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/2), p38 MAPK, and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) have been implicated as important cellular signaling molecules activated by mycobacteria [3] . Previous reports have shown that p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 are required in the induction of TNF-α expression in human monocytes infected with M. tuberculosis H37Rv [4] . We have further revealed the significant role of MAPKs in the signal transduction events of mycobacterial activation of primary human blood monocytes (PBMo) leading to cytokine expressions via the interaction with PKR [5] . However, the subsequent events as to how MAPK is regulated and how such regulation affects cytokine production in response to mycobacteria remain to be elucidated. Since MAPKs are activated by phosphorylation, dephosphorylation of MAPKs seems to be an efficient process to inactivate their activities. It can be achieved by specific protein kinase phosphatases which can remove the phosphate group from MAPKs. Examples of these phosphatases include tyrosine phosphatases, serine/threonine phosphatases, and dual-specificity phosphatases (DUSPs). Some DUSPs are also known as MAPK phosphatases (MKPs) [6] [7] [8] . Currently, there are at least 10 MKPs identified, while MKP-1 is the most studied member of the family. The regulatory role of MKP-1 on cytokine induction is best demonstrated by MKP-1 knockout (KO) macrophages in response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a cell wall component of Gram-negative bacteria. MKP-1 KO macrophages showed prolonged phosphorylation of p38 MAPK and JNK as well as increased production of TNF-α in response to LPS treatment [9] . Consistent with these results, another group further revealed that LPS-treated MKP-1 KO bone marrow-derived macrophages show increased AP-1 DNA-binding activity [10] . Also, they showed that LPS-induced MKP-1 expression is dependent on myeloid differentiation factor 88 (MyD88) and TIR domain-containing adaptor inducing IFN-β (TRIF) [10] , thus demonstrating the role of MKP-1 in signal transduction. Not only LPS, other TLR inducers including CpG, peptidoglycan, poly IC, and Pam 3 Cys can regulate cytokine expressions including TNF-α, IL-10 via MKP-1 activities [10, 11] . In these processes, MKP-1 serves to mitigate the undesirable effects of septic shock and maintain organ functions by restraining the inflammatory responses following bacterial infection. Another example of MKP-1 function is the immune response to Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus), a Gram positive bacteria. There are higher levels of cytokine production including TNF-α, IL-6, and MIP-1α in MKP-1 KO mice infected with S. aureus [12] . Also, the mice would have a rapid development of multiorgan dysfunction as well as faster mortality rate upon challenge with heat-killed S. aureus [12] . Taken together, these results suggest that MKP-1 protects the host from overactivation of the immune system in response to Gram negative or Gram positive bacteria. In the past, it was believed that different MKP/DUSP family members have overlapping functions. However, the emergence of DUSP2 turned the concept up side down [13] . It was shown that DUSP2 behaves differently and is opposite to the function as stated above. In DUSP2 KO cells, they produced less inflammatory mediators, implying that DUSP2 may play a role in mediating instead of limiting inflammation. For instances, when DUSP2 KO macrophages were treated with LPS, there were less TNF, IL-6, nitric oxide, IL-12-producing cells when compared to those of the wild type counterparts [13] . When the DUSP2 KO bone marrow-derived mast cells were first sensitized with immunoglobulin E (IgE) receptor (FcεRI) and then stimulated with dinitrophenol-heat stable antigen, they produced lower TNF mRNA levels, diminished IL-6 production, less phosphorylation of ERK1/2, p38 MAPK, and less transcriptional activities by Elk1 and NFAT-AP-1 [13] . These unexpected positive regulations of immune cell functions by DUSP2 have been hypothesized to be due to crosstalks between MAPKs [13] . Stimulation of KO mast cells and macrophages showed increases in phosphorylation of JNK. Moreover, inhibition of JNK by small molecule inhibitors showed increases in phosphorylation of ERK [13] . The authors also showed that there were physical interactions of DUSP2 with ERK2, DUSP2 with JNK2, as well as DUSP2 and p38 MAPK after stimulation of the cells with dinitrophenol-heat stable antigen. Nevertheless, the details of the crosstalks between MAPKs and phosphatases need further investigation. Thus, the MKP family plays a critical role in the regulation of immune responses. Innate immune response protects the host from MTB infection by secretion of cytokines including TNF-α in immune cells. Meanwhile, MAPK is one of the critical proteins in the regulation of immunity and cytokine expression. Since MAPK is regulated by MKP-1 in response to LPS and the activation of MAPK is important in BCGinduced cytokine expression, we hypothesize that MKP-1 plays a critical role in the immune regulation of BCG in human monocytes. We examined the involvement of MKP-1 in BCG-induced MAPK activation and its consequent cytokine expression. Here, we present evidences that MKP-1 plays an unexpected role in the regulation of cytokine induction by BCG through its control of MAPK phosphorylation. It has been reported that many inducers including growth factors, LPS, peptidoglycan, and dexamethasone can stimulate the expression of MKP-1 in human macrophages, microglia, mast cells or fibroblasts [6] . To investigate the role of different TLR inducers in MKP-1 induction process in human blood monocytes, the level of MKP-1 mRNA was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) method. PBMo were isolated from primary human blood mononuclear cells and stimulated with Pam 3 Cys (TLR2 agonist), poly IC (TLR3 agonist), or LPS (TLR4 agonist) for 1 and 3 hours. Following exposure to Pam 3 Cys or LPS, there were significant inductions of MKP-1 mRNA levels within 1 hour of treatment ( Figure 1A ). These effects on MKP-1 induction continued for 3 hours post-treatment with Pam 3 Cys ( Figure 1A ). In contrast, poly IC did not induce MKP-1 ( Figure 1A ). The results indicate that different inducers showed differential up-regulation of MKP-1 expression. LPS has been extensively used to demonstrate the role of MKP-1 in immune response both in vivo and in vitro [9, 12] . To establish a foundation for interpretation of subsequent experimental results, LPS was used as a positive control for the induction of MKP-1 expression. To determine the levels of MKP-1 in response to LPS, kinetics of MKP-1 transcription were determined by QPCR. There was a significant induction of MKP-1 mRNA, which peaked as early as 1 hour upon LPS stimulation, and the levels gradually decreased over a course of 6 hours. These results showed that LPS induced MKP-1 expression (Figure 1B) . Next, to demonstrate the induction of specific phosphatases by BCG, kinetics of MKP-1 expression in PBMo was studied by using QPCR during BCG treatment. Similar to the results produced by LPS, upon the addition of BCG (MOI = 1 CFU/cell), there was a significant induction of MKP-1 mRNA within 1 hour of BCG treatment as determined by Taqman probe specific for MKP-1 ( Figure 2A ). The effects lasted for at least 6 hours ( Figure 2A ). To examine whether the changes of protein production were in parallel to that of the mRNA levels, the protein levels of MKP-1 were measured by Western blotting. In response to BCG, PBMo produced the MKP-1 protein as early as 30 minutes after treatment. The protein levels were maintained for 2 hours and dropped to basal levels at 3 hours ( Figure 2B ). The results demonstrated that there was MKP-1 induction in response to BCG activation in human monocytes. It has been shown that inhibition of p38 MAPK either by specific inhibitor or siRNA reduced the expression of MKP-1 in LPS-or peptidoglycan-treated macrophages [14] . To determine the mechanisms involved in the BCGinduced MKP-1 expression, PBMo were pretreated with several inhibitors including PD98059 (inhibitor for MAP kinase kinase [MEK] or ERK1/2), SB203580 (inhibitor for p38 MAPK), SP600125 (inhibitor for JNK), and CAPE (inhibitor for NF-κB) for 1 hour. A range of concentrations of each inhibitor was used to test their optimal concentrations and effects on cell viability and kinase inhibitions. BCG was added afterwards and total RNA was harvested. The results demonstrated that, with the inhibition of ERK1/2 and p38 MAPK activities by their corresponding relatively specific inhibitors, MKP-1 expressions were significantly reduced ( Figure 3 ). In addition, using higher dose of SB203580, we showed that the inhibition is increased further (data not shown). On the contrary, pretreatment of the cells with CAPE and SP600125 did not affect the induction of MKP-1 by BCG ( Figure 3 ). These results suggest that BCG-induced MKP-1 expression is dependent on both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2. Throughout the above experiments, the primary goal was to examine the induction of MKP-1 by BCG in human monocytes. Thus, to further examine the role of MKP-1 in BCG-induced signaling, transfection of siRNA into PBMo was used to knockdown the activity of MKP-1. To demonstrate that the MKP-1 siRNA can indeed knockdown the target gene, PBMo were first transfected with control or MKP-1 siRNA and then treated with BCG for 3 hours. Levels of MKP-1 mRNA were measured by RT-PCR method. In Figure 4A , BCG stimulated MKP-1 expression (lanes 1 and 2). In MKP-1 siRNA transfected monocytes, induction of MKP-1 by BCG was significantly decreased (lanes 2 and 4). The results showed that the siRNA does abrogate the levels of MKP-1 mRNA. To further determine whether MKP-1 siRNA affects BCGinduced MKP-1 at protein levels, PBMo were treated as above and MKP-1 proteins were measured by Western blotting. The results showed that BCG could induce MKP-1 proteins as usual for cells transfected with control siRNA ( Figure 4B , lanes 1-3). However, the levels of BCGinduced MKP-1 protein expression were reduced in cells transfected with MKP-1 siRNA ( Figure 4B , lanes 4-6). Together, the results suggest that MKP-1 siRNA not only reduced the MKP-1 mRNA in BCG treatment but also abrogated the BCG-induced MKP-1 protein. As stated in the literature [9] , MKP-1 KO mice showed increased TNF-α production in response to LPS. On the basis of the above MKP-1 siRNA results, LPS was then used as a control to demonstrate the effects of this MKP-1 siRNA system. cytokine expression induced by LPS in MKP-1 siRNA transfected cells suggest that the siRNA system is effective in knocking down the MKP-1 expression and MKP-1 acts as a negative regulator in LPS-induced TNF-α expression. To investigate the effect of MKP-1 siRNA on BCG-induced cytokine expression, the levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-10 mRNA were measured by QPCR method. PBMo were transfected with either control or MKP-1 siRNA. Following exposure to BCG with control siRNA, there were significant inductions of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-10 mRNA levels for 3 hours after treatment as previously reported ( [5] and data not shown). Next, the effects of MKP-1 siRNA were examined on the cytokine expression induced by BCG. Surprisingly, there was a significant abrogation of BCGinduced TNF-α expression by MKP-1 siRNA ( Figure 4D ). With the knockdown of MKP-1, the level of BCG-induced TNF-α was only 60% compared to that of the control cells, while BCG-induced IL-6 and IL-10 were unchanged in MKP-1 siRNA transfected cells. The results revealed that MKP-1 plays a role in the induction of TNF-α expression upon BCG stimulation, which may be different from that of its conventional functions in which MKP-1 acts as a negative regulator in LPS-induced signaling pathways [7] . The unexpected observations in cytokine expression lead to the investigation on the effects of MKP-1 siRNA on BCG-induced MAPK activation. MKP-1 was found to have a preferential substrate binding to p38 MAPK and JNK than ERK1/2 [7] . The phosphorylation status of MAPKs was assessed in control or MKP-1 siRNA transfected PBMo. Western blotting results demonstrated that BCGinduced both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 phosphorylation in 15 minutes (data not shown) and peaked at 30 minutes, and then returned to basal levels in cells treated with the control siRNA ( Figure 5 ). Similar to the results of cytokine expression, phosphorylation of both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 in response to BCG was decreased in monocytes transfected with MKP-1 siRNA instead of the expected increase in phosphorylation ( Figure 5 ). The results suggest that MKP-1 knockdown would result in reduced MAPK phosphorylation by BCG, implying that the reduced level of TNF-α production in BCG stimulated monocytes is due to reduced phosphorylation of MAPKs by MKP-1 siRNA. This report presented evidences that a novel function of MKP-1 is uncovered in cytokine regulation in response to mycobacterial infection. BCG induces MKP-1 as a rapid response (Figure 2) . The induction mechanism of MKP-1 by BCG is dependent on both ERK1/2 and p38 MAPK ( Figure 3 ). Using siRNA approach, the functions of MKP-1 can be examined in primary human monocytes. The results showed that the BCG-induced MAPKs activation as well as cytokine expression are downstream of MKP-1 ( Figures 4D and 5) . Thus, MKP-1 is a critical signaling molecule that is involved in BCG-induced cytokine expression. Previous reports have shown that MKP-1 induced by LPS or peptidoglycan is dependent on p38 MAPK [14] . Accordingly, BCG-induced MKP-1 can be inhibited by both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 inhibitors. Interestingly, it has been shown that degradation of MKP-1 is reduced after ERK1/2 phosphorylation [15] . It can be hypothesized that BCG-induced MKP-1 proteins can be stabilized by ERK1/2 and the detailed mechanisms involved require more exploration. Also, since the inhibition of MKP-1 expression by both inhibitors (for p38 MAPK and ERK1/ 2) was not complete, it is believed that other proteins may be involved in the BCG-induced MKP-1 expression. On the basis of the literature results on LPS effects ( Figure 6 ), the original expectation for this project is that MKP-1 acts as a negative regulator. LPS-stimulated MKP-1 KO peritoneal macrophages showed prolonged phosphorylation of p38 MAPK and JNK as well as increased production of TNF-α [9] . In doing so, LPS-induced MKP-1 could BCG-induced MAPK phosphorylation is decreased by MKP-1 siRNA prevent prolonged TNF-α production as in sepsis which may lead to severe damage to the host. It was expected that BCG induces MKP-1 and its induction would correlate with the dephosphorylation of MAPKs including p38 MAPK. By blocking the MKP-1 using siRNA, it was expected to have increased p38 MAPK phosphorylation and prolonged TNF-α production in response to BCG. Nevertheless, our results shown here are diametrically opposite. One possibility for the unexpected results may be due to non-specific effects of transfection or siRNA. However, this was not the case since there was a prolonged and increased TNF-α expression after the MKP-1 siRNA-transfected monocytes were treated with LPS (Figure 4C ). There is now a new hypothesis to explain such paradoxical effects of MKP-1 in TNF-α regulation in which the phosphatase plays a role in positive regulation of TNF-α production in response to BCG as in the case of DUSP2 [13] . The structures of MKP-1 and DUSP2 are similar, with which they both contain a MAPK-interacting domain and a phosphatase catalytic site. By contrast, other DUSP may have extra domains, e.g., PEST [6] . Here, we postulate that the function of MKP-1 in BCG-induced signaling is similar to that of the DUSP2/PAC1. Actually, the discovery of DUSP2 has initially created some paradoxical questions. As described, DUSP2 behaves differently from other MKP family members [13] . In DUSP2 KO macrophages treated with LPS, they produced less inflammatory mediators including less TNF, IL-6, nitric oxide, and IL-12-producing cells, when compared to that of the wild type counterparts [13] . Indeed, the results of these published studies on DUSP2 studies are quite similar to that of our reported results here. It is plausible that these unexpected positive regulations of immune cell functions by DUSP2 were due to crosstalks between MAPKs [13] . It was shown that there are interactions between JNK and ERK1/2 pathways [16] . Here, we showed that the sustained activation of JNK blocks ERK activation ( Figure 6 ). In the DUSP2 situation, stimulation of KO mast cells and macrophages shows increased phosphorylation of JNK, and inhibition of JNK by its own specific inhibitor restores phosphorylation of ERK1/2 [13] . In the BCG-MKP-1 situation, there is an early phosphorylation of p38 MAPK and ERK1/2. Therefore, it is possible that JNK may play a role in the crosstalk interaction of MAPK. However, our preliminary data suggest that the level of phosphorylated JNK was not increased in PBMo MKP-1 plays a critical role in the regulation of cytokine expression upon mycobacterial infection Figure 6 MKP-1 plays a critical role in the regulation of cytokine expression upon mycobacterial infection. LPS model was provided according to literature findings (Left). In this scenario, LPS activates MKP-1, which in turn dephosphorylates and deactivates phospho-p38 MAPK, resulting in less TNF-α induction. However, the situation in DHP-HSA activation of DUSP2 is more complicated (Middle), since the phosphatase activity causes subsequent inhibition of phospho-JNK which leads to the derepression of phospho-p38 MAPK. Consequently, the combined effects of this cascade results in more TNF-α expression. The unexpected antimycobacterial role of MKP-1 (Right) may be explained by events similar to the DUSP2 effects. In this case (Right), there was an inhibition of unknown pathways or kinases downstream of MKP-1, and the unknown factor in turn inhibits MAPKs activation leading to more TNF-α induction. The details and kinase targets are yet to be identified. transfected with MKP-1 siRNA (data not shown). Thus, the details of the crosstalk between MAPKs need further investigation. Here, we present a model to summarize the results and to hypothesize the existence of an as yet unidentified intermediary factor or factors in the pathways downstream of MKP-1 effects in the BCG-induced signaling cascade. The unexpected antimycobacterial role of MKP-1 ( Figure 6 ) may be explained by events similar to the DUSP2 effects. In this case, BCG induces MKP-1 expression while also activates MAPKs including p38 MAPK and ERK1/2. Downstream of MKP-1, there is an inhibition of unknown pathways or kinases. The unknown factor in turn inhibits MAPKs activation, which ultimately leads to more TNF-α induction ( Figure 6 ). In summary, MKP-1 plays a critical role in the regulation of cytokine expression upon mycobacterial infection. Inhibition of unknown pathways or kinases downstream of MKP-1, which in turn inhibits MAPKs activation, may be used to explain the novel function of MKP-1 in enhancing MAPK activity and consequent TNF-α expression following BCG treatment ( Figure 6 ). Taken together, the role of MAPK crosstalks need further exploration. (3) TNF-α, 30 cycles (TM = 56°C), upstream, 5'-GGCTCCAGGCGGTGCTTGTTC-3', downstream, 5'-AGACGGCGATGCGGCTGATG-3'. PCR products were analyzed on a 1% agarose gel with ethidium bromide and visualized under ultraviolet light. In order to check the size of the PCR products, 1 kb Plus DNA Lad-der™ (Invitrogen, USA) was run along with the PCR products. To perform QPCR, the levels of MKP-1, and TNF-α mRNA as well as the reference gene GAPDH (as internal control) were assayed by the gene-specific Assays-on-Demand reagent kits (Applied Biosystems, USA). All samples were run in duplicates or triplicates and with no template controls on an ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detector. The analysis method of QPCR was the comparative cycle number to threshold (C T ) method as described in user bulletin no. 2 of the ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detection System. The number of C T of the targeted genes was normalized to that of GAPDH in each sample (ΔC T ). The C T value of the treated cells was compared with that of the untreated or mock-treated cells (ΔΔCT). The relative gene expression of the targeted genes (fold induction) was calculated as 2 -ΔΔCT . Total cellular proteins were extracted by lysing cells in lysis buffer containing 1% Triton X-100, 0.5% NP-40, 150 mM NaCl, 10 mM Tris-HCl (pH 7.4), 1 mM EDTA, 1 mM EGTA (pH 8.0), 1% SDS, 0.2 mg/ml PMSF, 1 μg/ml aprotinin, 1 mM sodium orthovanadate, 2 μg/ml pepstatin, 2 μg/ml leupeptin, and 50 mM sodium fluoride for 5 minutes. The homogenate was then boiled for 10 minutes and stored at -70°C until use. The concentrations of total protein in cell extracts were determined by BCA™ Protein Assay Kit (Pierce, IL, USA). Western blot was done as described [20] . Equal amounts of protein were separated by 10% SDS-PAGE, electroblotted onto nitrocellulose membranes (Schleicher & Schuell), and followed by probing with specific antibod-ies for Actin, MKP-1 (Santa Cruz Biotech., USA), phospho-p38 MAPK, phospho-ERK1/2 (Cell Signaling, USA). After three washes, the membranes were incubated with the corresponding secondary antibodies. The bands were detected using the Enhanced Chemiluminescence System (Amersham Pharmacia Biotech) as per the manufacturer's instructions. Transfection of siRNA into human monocytes was done as described [21] . MKP-1 siRNA included (i) MKP1-HSS102982, AAACGCUUCGUAUCCUCCUUUGAGG; (ii) MKP1-HSS102983, UUAUGCCCAAGGCAUCCAG-CAUGUC; and (iii) MKP1-HSS102984, UGAUG-GAGUCUAUGAAGUCAAUGGC. MKP-1 knockdown in PBMo was conducted by using MKP1-HSS102983 only or a pool of the above three different MKP-1 Stealth™ Select RNAi (ratio = 1:1:1, 200 nM, Invitrogen, USA). Stealth™ RNAi Negative Control Duplex (200 nM) was used as a control for sequence independent effects for the siRNA transfection. Transfection of monocytes was done by using jetPEI™ DNA transfection reagent (Polyplus Transfection, USA) according to the manufacturer's instructions. After transfecting the cells for 24 h, the transfectants were treated with different inducers as described above. Statistical analysis was performed by Student's t test. Differences were considered statistically significant when p values were less than 0.05.

What are some mitogen activated protein kinases?

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics Jeffery K. Taubenberger" and David M. Morens1- The “Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918—1919, which caused :50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. The public health implications of the pandemic therefore remain in doubt even as we now grapple with the feared emergence of a pandemic caused by H5N1 or other virus. However, new information about the 1918 virus is emerging, for example, sequencing of the entire genome from archival autopsy tis- sues. But, the viral genome alone is unlikely to provide answers to some critical questions. Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis. ”Curiouser and curiouser/ ” criedAlice Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 1865 An estimated one third of the world’s population (or z500 million persons) were infected and had clinical- ly apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 191871919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case- fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at z50 million (577) and were arguably as high as 100 mil- lion (7). The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 191871919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (except- ing human infections from avian Viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 Virus, including “drifted” H1N1 Viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 Viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 Virus, updated by subsequently-incor— porated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface *Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and TNational Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA proteins, making the 1918 Virus indeed the “mother” of all pandemics. In 1918, the cause of human influenza and its links to avian and swine influenza were unknown. Despite clinical and epidemiologic similarities to influenza pandemics of 1889, 1847, and even earlier, many questioned whether such an explosively fatal disease could be influenza at all. That question did not begin to be resolved until the 1930s, when closely related influenza Viruses (now known to be H1N1 Viruses) were isolated, first from pigs and shortly thereafter from humans. Seroepidemiologic studies soon linked both of these viruses to the 1918 pandemic (8). Subsequent research indicates that descendants of the 1918 Virus still persists enzootically in pigs. They probably also circulated continuously in humans, undergoing gradual antigenic drift and causing annual epidemics, until the 1950s. With the appearance of a new H2N2 pandemic strain in 1957 (“Asian flu”), the direct H1N1 Viral descen- dants 0f the 1918 pandemic strain disappeared from human circulation entirely, although the related lineage persisted enzootically in pigs. But in 1977, human H1N1 Viruses suddenly “reemerged” from a laboratory freezer (9). They continue to circulate endemically and epidemically. Thus in 2006, 2 major descendant lineages of the 1918 H1N1 Virus, as well as 2 additional reassortant lineages, persist naturally: a human epidemic/endemic H1N1 line- age, a porcine enzootic H1N1 lineage (so-called classic swine flu), and the reassorted human H3N2 Virus lineage, which like the human H1N1 Virus, has led to a porcine H3N2 lineage. None of these Viral descendants, however, approaches the pathogenicity of the 1918 parent Virus. Apparently, the porcine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages uncom- monly infect humans, and the human H1N1 and H3N2 lin- eages have both been associated with substantially lower rates ofillness and death than the virus of 1918. In fact, cur- rent H1N1 death rates are even lower than those for H3N2 lineage strains (prevalent from 1968 until the present). H1N1 Viruses descended from the 1918 strain, as well as H3N2 Viruses, have now been cocirculating worldwide for 29 years and show little evidence of imminent extinction. Trying To Understand What Happened By the early 1990s, 75 years of research had failed to answer a most basic question about the 1918 pandemic: why was it so fatal? No Virus from 1918 had been isolated, but all of its apparent descendants caused substantially milder human disease. Moreover, examination of mortality data from the 1920s suggests that within a few years after 1918, influenza epidemics had settled into a pattern of annual epidemicity associated with strain drifting and sub- stantially lowered death rates. Did some critical Viral genet- ic event produce a 1918 Virus of remarkable pathogenicity and then another critical genetic event occur soon after the 1918 pandemic to produce an attenuated H1N1 Virus? In 1995, a scientific team identified archival influenza autopsy materials collected in the autumn of 1918 and began the slow process of sequencing small Viral RNA fragments to determine the genomic structure of the causative influenza Virus (10). These efforts have now determined the complete genomic sequence of 1 Virus and partial sequences from 4 others. The primary data from the above studies (11717) and a number of reviews covering different aspects of the 1918 pandemic have recently been published ([8720) and confirm that the 1918 Virus is the likely ancestor of all 4 of the human and swine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages, as well as the “extinct” H2N2 lineage. No known mutations correlated with high pathogenicity in other human or animal influenza Viruses have been found in the 1918 genome, but ongoing studies to map Virulence factors are yielding interesting results. The 1918 sequence data, however, leave unanswered questions about the ori- gin of the Virus (19) and about the epidemiology of the pandemic. When and Where Did the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Arise? Before and after 1918, most influenza pandemics developed in Asia and spread from there to the rest of the world. Confounding definite assignment of a geographic point of origin, the 1918 pandemic spread more or less simultaneously in 3 distinct waves during an z12-month period in 191871919, in Europe, Asia, and North America (the first wave was best described in the United States in March 1918). Historical and epidemiologic data are inade- quate to identify the geographic origin of the Virus (21), and recent phylogenetic analysis of the 1918 Viral genome does not place the Virus in any geographic context ([9). Although in 1918 influenza was not a nationally reportable disease and diagnostic criteria for influenza and pneumonia were vague, death rates from influenza and pneumonia in the United States had risen sharply in 1915 and 1916 because of a major respiratory disease epidemic beginning in December 1915 (22). Death rates then dipped slightly in 1917. The first pandemic influenza wave appeared in the spring of 1918, followed in rapid succes- sion by much more fatal second and third waves in the fall and winter of 191871919, respectively (Figure 1). Is it pos- sible that a poorly-adapted H1N1 Virus was already begin- ning to spread in 1915, causing some serious illnesses but not yet sufficiently fit to initiate a pandemic? Data consis- tent with this possibility were reported at the time from European military camps (23), but a counter argument is that if a strain with a new hemagglutinin (HA) was caus- ing enough illness to affect the US national death rates from pneumonia and influenza, it should have caused a pandemic sooner, and when it eventually did, in 1918, many people should have been immune or at least partial- ly immunoprotected. “Herald” events in 1915, 1916, and possibly even in early 1918, if they occurred, would be dif- ficult to identify. The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique fea- ture, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The Virus of the 1918 pandemic like- ly expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neu- raminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 Virus were derived from an avianlike influenza Virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor Virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15, 24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the Virus also support this conclu- sion. Regression analyses of human and swine influenza sequences obtained from 1930 to the present place the ini- tial circulation of the 1918 precursor Virus in humans at approximately 191571918 (20). Thus, the precursor was probably not circulating widely in humans until shortly before 1918, nor did it appear to have jumped directly from any species of bird studied to date (19). In summary, its origin remains puzzling. Were the 3 Waves in 1918—1 919 Caused by the Same Virus? If So, How and Why? Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of interpandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza Viruses behave differently when they find a uni- versal or highly susceptible human population. Thereafter, confronted by the selection pressures of population immu- nity, these pandemic Viruses begin to drift genetically and eventually settle into a pattern of annual epidemic recur- rences caused by the drifted Virus variants. Figure 1. Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918—1919 (21). In the 1918-1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A sec- ond or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919 (21). Clinical similari- ties led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves. The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandem- ic and in prior interpandemic years. In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infec- tions to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 191871919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher fre- quency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves. But 3 extensive pandemic waves of influenza within 1 year, occurring in rapid succession, with only the briefest of quiescent intervals between them, was unprecedented. The occurrence, and to some extent the severity, of recur- rent annual outbreaks, are driven by Viral antigenic drift, with an antigenic variant Virus emerging to become domi- nant approximately every 2 to 3 years. Without such drift, circulating human influenza Viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further Virus spread was sufficiently limited. The timing and spacing of influenza epidemics in interpandemic years have been subjects of speculation for decades. Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting Virus spread in all but the most favorable circumstances, which include lower environ- mental temperatures and human nasal temperatures (bene- ficial to thermolabile Viruses such as influenza), optimal humidity, increased crowding indoors, and imperfect ven- tilation due to closed windows and suboptimal airflow. However, such factors cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918-1919, which occurred in the spring-sum- mer, summer—fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively. The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to influenza Virus spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Furthermore, the interwave peri- ods were so brief as to be almost undetectable in some locales. Reconciling epidemiologically the steep drop in cases in the first and second waves with the sharp rises in cases of the second and third waves is difficult. Assuming even transient postinfection immunity, how could suscep- tible persons be too few to sustain transmission at 1 point, and yet enough to start a new explosive pandemic wave a few weeks later? Could the Virus have mutated profoundly and almost simultaneously around the world, in the short periods between the successive waves? Acquiring Viral drift sufficient to produce new influenza strains capable of escaping population immunity is believed to take years of global circulation, not weeks of local circulation. And hav- ing occurred, such mutated Viruses normally take months to spread around the world. At the beginning of other “off season” influenza pan- demics, successive distinct waves within a year have not been reported. The 1889 pandemic, for example, began in the late spring of 1889 and took several months to spread throughout the world, peaking in northern Europe and the United States late in 1889 or early in 1890. The second recurrence peaked in late spring 1891 (more than a year after the first pandemic appearance) and the third in early 1892 (21 ). As was true for the 1918 pandemic, the second 1891 recurrence produced of the most deaths. The 3 recur- rences in 1889-1892, however, were spread over >3 years, in contrast to 191871919, when the sequential waves seen in individual countries were typically compressed into z879 months. What gave the 1918 Virus the unprecedented ability to generate rapidly successive pandemic waves is unclear. Because the only 1918 pandemic Virus samples we have yet identified are from second-wave patients ([6), nothing can yet be said about whether the first (spring) wave, or for that matter, the third wave, represented circulation of the same Virus or variants of it. Data from 1918 suggest that persons infected in the second wave may have been pro- tected from influenza in the third wave. But the few data bearing on protection during the second and third waves after infection in the first wave are inconclusive and do lit- tle to resolve the question of whether the first wave was caused by the same Virus or whether major genetic evolu- tionary events were occurring even as the pandemic exploded and progressed. Only influenza RNAipositive human samples from before 1918, and from all 3 waves, can answer this question. What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus? Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 Virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant Virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the con- trary, the 1918 Virus appears to be an avianlike influenza Virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza Virus gene sequences from a number offixed specimens ofwild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian Viruses isolated today, indicating that avian Viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25). For example, the 1918 nucleoprotein (NP) gene sequence is similar to that ofviruses found in wild birds at the amino acid level but very divergent at the nucleotide level, which suggests considerable evolutionary distance between the sources of the 1918 NP and of currently sequenced NP genes in wild bird strains (13,19). One way of looking at the evolutionary distance of genes is to com- pare ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions. A synonymous substitution represents a silent change, a nucleotide change in a codon that does not result in an amino acid replacement. A nonsynonymous substitution is a nucleotide change in a codon that results in an amino acid replacement. Generally, a Viral gene sub- jected to immunologic drift pressure or adapting to a new host exhibits a greater percentage of nonsynonymous mutations, while a Virus under little selective pressure accumulates mainly synonymous changes. Since little or no selection pressure is exerted on synonymous changes, they are thought to reflect evolutionary distance. Because the 1918 gene segments have more synony- mous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza Virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far. This is especially apparent when one examines the differences at 4-fold degenerate codons, the subset of synonymous changes in which, at the third codon position, any of the 4 possible nucleotides can be substituted without changing the resulting amino acid. At the same time, the 1918 sequences have too few amino acid difierences from those of wild-bird strains to have spent many years adapting only in a human or swine intermedi- ate host. One possible explanation is that these unusual gene segments were acquired from a reservoir of influenza Virus that has not yet been identified or sampled. All of these findings beg the question: where did the 1918 Virus come from? In contrast to the genetic makeup of the 1918 pandem- ic Virus, the novel gene segments of the reassorted 1957 and 1968 pandemic Viruses all originated in Eurasian avian Viruses (26); both human Viruses arose by the same mech- anismireassortment of a Eurasian wild waterfowl strain with the previously circulating human H1N1 strain. Proving the hypothesis that the Virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic had a markedly different origin requires samples of human influenza strains circulating before 1918 and samples of influenza strains in the wild that more closely resemble the 1918 sequences. What Was the Biological Basis for 1918 Pandemic Virus Pathogenicity? Sequence analysis alone does not ofier clues to the pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus. A series of experiments are under way to model Virulence in Vitro and in animal models by using Viral constructs containing 1918 genes produced by reverse genetics. Influenza Virus infection requires binding of the HA protein to sialic acid receptors on host cell surface. The HA receptor-binding site configuration is different for those influenza Viruses adapted to infect birds and those adapted to infect humans. Influenza Virus strains adapted to birds preferentially bind sialic acid receptors with 01 (273) linked sugars (27729). Human-adapted influenza Viruses are thought to preferentially bind receptors with 01 (2%) link- ages. The switch from this avian receptor configuration requires of the Virus only 1 amino acid change (30), and the HAs of all 5 sequenced 1918 Viruses have this change, which suggests that it could be a critical step in human host adaptation. A second change that greatly augments Virus binding to the human receptor may also occur, but only 3 of5 1918 HA sequences have it (16). This means that at least 2 H1N1 receptor-binding vari- ants cocirculated in 1918: 1 with high—affinity binding to the human receptor and 1 with mixed-affinity binding to both avian and human receptors. No geographic or chrono- logic indication eXists to suggest that one of these variants was the precursor of the other, nor are there consistent dif- ferences between the case histories or histopathologic fea- tures of the 5 patients infected with them. Whether the Viruses were equally transmissible in 1918, whether they had identical patterns of replication in the respiratory tree, and whether one or both also circulated in the first and third pandemic waves, are unknown. In a series of in Vivo experiments, recombinant influen- za Viruses containing between 1 and 5 gene segments of the 1918 Virus have been produced. Those constructs bearing the 1918 HA and NA are all highly pathogenic in mice (31). Furthermore, expression microarray analysis performed on whole lung tissue of mice infected with the 1918 HA/NA recombinant showed increased upregulation of genes involved in apoptosis, tissue injury, and oxidative damage (32). These findings are unexpected because the Viruses with the 1918 genes had not been adapted to mice; control experiments in which mice were infected with modern human Viruses showed little disease and limited Viral replication. The lungs of animals infected with the 1918 HA/NA construct showed bronchial and alveolar epithelial necrosis and a marked inflammatory infiltrate, which suggests that the 1918 HA (and possibly the NA) contain Virulence factors for mice. The Viral genotypic basis of this pathogenicity is not yet mapped. Whether pathogenicity in mice effectively models pathogenicity in humans is unclear. The potential role of the other 1918 pro- teins, singularly and in combination, is also unknown. Experiments to map further the genetic basis of Virulence of the 1918 Virus in various animal models are planned. These experiments may help define the Viral component to the unusual pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus but cannot address whether specific host factors in 1918 accounted for unique influenza mortality patterns. Why Did the 1918 Virus Kill So Many Healthy Young Ad ults? The curve of influenza deaths by age at death has histor- ically, for at least 150 years, been U-shaped (Figure 2), exhibiting mortality peaks in the very young and the very old, with a comparatively low frequency of deaths at all ages in between. In contrast, age-specific death rates in the 1918 pandemic exhibited a distinct pattern that has not been documented before or since: a “W—shaped” curve, similar to the familiar U-shaped curve but with the addition of a third (middle) distinct peak of deaths in young adults z20410 years of age. Influenza and pneumonia death rates for those 1534 years of age in 191871919, for example, were 20 times higher than in previous years (35). Overall, near- ly half of the influenza—related deaths in the 1918 pandem- ic were in young adults 20410 years of age, a phenomenon unique to that pandemic year. The 1918 pandemic is also unique among influenza pandemics in that absolute risk of influenza death was higher in those <65 years of age than in those >65; persons <65 years of age accounted for >99% of all excess influenza—related deaths in 191871919. In com- parison, the <65-year age group accounted for 36% of all excess influenza—related deaths in the 1957 H2N2 pandem- ic and 48% in the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (33). A sharper perspective emerges when 1918 age-specific influenza morbidity rates (21) are used to adj ust the W- shaped mortality curve (Figure 3, panels, A, B, and C [35,37]). Persons 65 years of age in 1918 had a dispro- portionately high influenza incidence (Figure 3, panel A). But even after adjusting age-specific deaths by age-specif— ic clinical attack rates (Figure 3, panel B), a W—shaped curve with a case-fatality peak in young adults remains and is significantly different from U-shaped age-specific case- fatality curves typically seen in other influenza years, e.g., 192871929 (Figure 3, panel C). Also, in 1918 those 5 to 14 years of age accounted for a disproportionate number of influenza cases, but had a much lower death rate from influenza and pneumonia than other age groups. To explain this pattern, we must look beyond properties of the Virus to host and environmental factors, possibly including immunopathology (e.g., antibody-dependent infection enhancement associated with prior Virus exposures [38]) and exposure to risk cofactors such as coinfecting agents, medications, and environmental agents. One theory that may partially explain these findings is that the 1918 Virus had an intrinsically high Virulence, tem- pered only in those patients who had been born before 1889, e.g., because of exposure to a then-circulating Virus capable of providing partial immunoprotection against the 1918 Virus strain only in persons old enough (>35 years) to have been infected during that prior era (35). But this the- ory would present an additional paradox: an obscure pre- cursor Virus that left no detectable trace today would have had to have appeared and disappeared before 1889 and then reappeared more than 3 decades later. Epidemiologic data on rates of clinical influenza by age, collected between 1900 and 1918, provide good evi- dence for the emergence of an antigenically novel influen- za Virus in 1918 (21). Jordan showed that from 1900 to 1917, the 5- to 15-year age group accounted for 11% of total influenza cases, while the >65-year age group accounted for 6 % of influenza cases. But in 1918, cases in Figure 2. “U-” and “W—” shaped combined influenza and pneumo- nia mortality, by age at death, per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, 1911—1918. Influenza- and pneumonia- specific death rates are plotted for the interpandemic years 1911—1917 (dashed line) and for the pandemic year 1918 (solid line) (33,34). Incidence male per 1 .nao persunslage group Mortality per 1.000 persunslige group + Case—fataiity rale 1918—1919 Case fatalily par 100 persons ill wilh P&I pel age group Figure 3. Influenza plus pneumonia (P&l) (combined) age-specific incidence rates per 1,000 persons per age group (panel A), death rates per 1,000 persons, ill and well combined (panel B), and case-fatality rates (panel C, solid line), US Public Health Service house-to-house surveys, 8 states, 1918 (36). A more typical curve of age-specific influenza case-fatality (panel C, dotted line) is taken from US Public Health Service surveys during 1928—1929 (37). the 5 to 15-year-old group jumped to 25% of influenza cases (compatible with exposure to an antigenically novel Virus strain), while the >65-year age group only accounted for 0.6% of the influenza cases, findings consistent with previously acquired protective immunity caused by an identical or closely related Viral protein to which older per- sons had once been exposed. Mortality data are in accord. In 1918, persons >75 years had lower influenza and pneumonia case-fatality rates than they had during the prepandemic period of 191171917. At the other end of the age spectrum (Figure 2), a high proportion of deaths in infancy and early childhood in 1918 mimics the age pat- tern, if not the mortality rate, of other influenza pandemics. Could a 1918-like Pandemic Appear Again? If So, What Could We Do About It? In its disease course and pathologic features, the 1918 pandemic was different in degree, but not in kind, from previous and subsequent pandemics. Despite the extraordi- nary number of global deaths, most influenza cases in 1918 (>95% in most locales in industrialized nations) were mild and essentially indistinguishable from influenza cases today. Furthermore, laboratory experiments with recombi- nant influenza Viruses containing genes from the 1918 Virus suggest that the 1918 and 1918-like Viruses would be as sensitive as other typical Virus strains to the Food and Drug Administrationiapproved antiinfluenza drugs riman- tadine and oseltamivir. However, some characteristics of the 1918 pandemic appear unique: most notably, death rates were 5 7 20 times higher than expected. Clinically and pathologically, these high death rates appear to be the result of several factors, including a higher proportion of severe and complicated infections of the respiratory tract, rather than involvement of organ systems outside the normal range of the influenza Virus. Also, the deaths were concentrated in an unusually young age group. Finally, in 1918, 3 separate recurrences of influenza followed each other with unusual rapidity, resulting in 3 explosive pandemic waves within a year’s time (Figure 1). Each of these unique characteristics may reflect genetic features of the 1918 Virus, but understand- ing them will also require examination of host and envi- ronmental factors. Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. Like the 1918 Virus, H5N1 is an avian Virus (39), though a distantly related one. The evolutionary path that led to pandemic emergence in 1918 is entirely unknown, but it appears to be different in many respects from the cur- rent situation with H5N1. There are no historical data, either in 1918 or in any other pandemic, for establishing that a pandemic “precursor” Virus caused a highly patho- genic outbreak in domestic poultry, and no highly patho- genic avian influenza (HPAI) Virus, including H5N1 and a number of others, has ever been known to cause a major human epidemic, let alone a pandemic. While data bearing on influenza Virus human cell adaptation (e.g., receptor binding) are beginning to be understood at the molecular level, the basis for Viral adaptation to efficient human-to- human spread, the chief prerequisite for pandemic emer- gence, is unknown for any influenza Virus. The 1918 Virus acquired this trait, but we do not know how, and we cur- rently have no way of knowing whether H5N1 Viruses are now in a parallel process of acquiring human-to-human transmissibility. Despite an explosion of data on the 1918 Virus during the past decade, we are not much closer to understanding pandemic emergence in 2006 than we were in understanding the risk of H1N1 “swine flu” emergence in 1976. Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pan- demic Virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the Virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic Virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths. Whether because of Viral, host or environmental fac- tors, the 1918 Virus causing the first or ‘spring’ wave was not associated with the exceptional pathogenicity of the second (fall) and third (winter) waves. Identification of an influenza RNA-positive case from the first wave could point to a genetic basis for Virulence by allowing differ- ences in Viral sequences to be highlighted. Identification of pre-1918 human influenza RNA samples would help us understand the timing of emergence of the 1918 Virus. Surveillance and genomic sequencing of large numbers of animal influenza Viruses will help us understand the genet- ic basis of host adaptation and the extent of the natural reservoir of influenza Viruses. Understanding influenza pandemics in general requires understanding the 1918 pan- demic in all its historical, epidemiologic, and biologic aspects. Dr Taubenberger is chair of the Department of Molecular Pathology at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland. His research interests include the molecular patho- physiology and evolution of influenza Viruses. Dr Morens is an epidemiologist with a long-standing inter- est in emerging infectious diseases, Virology, tropical medicine, and medical history. Since 1999, he has worked at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. References 1. Frost WH. Statistics of influenza morbidity. Public Health Rep. 19203558497. 2. Bumet F, Clark E. Influenza: a survey ofthe last 50 years in the light of modern work on the Virus of epidemic influenza. Melbourne: MacMillan; 1942. 3. Marks G, Beatty WK. Epidemics. New York: Scribners, 1976. 4. Rosenau MJ, Last JM. Maxcy-Rosenau preventative medicine and public health. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts; 1980. 5. Crosby A. America’s forgotten pandemic. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press;1989. 6. Patterson KD, Pyle GF. The geography and mortality of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med. 1991;65:4–21. 7. Johnson NPAS, Mueller J. Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. 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Grove RD, Hetzel AM. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1940–1960. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1968. 34. Linder FE, Grove RD. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1900–1940. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1943. 35. Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis 1998;178:53–60. 36. Frost WH. The epidemiology of influenza. Public Health Rep. 1919;34:1823–61. 37. Collins SD. Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928-1929 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918–1919. Public Health Rep. 1931;46:1909–37. 38. Majde JA. Influenza: Learn from the past. ASM News. 1996;62:514. 39. Peiris JS, Yu WC, Leung CW, Cheung CY, Ng WF, Nicholls JM, et al. Re-emergence of fatal human influenza A subtype H5N1 disease. Lancet. 2004;363:617–9. Address for correspondence: Jeffery K. Taubenberger, Department of Molecular Pathology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, 1413 Research Blvd, Bldg 101, Rm 1057, Rockville, MD 20850-3125, USA; fax. 301-295-9507; email: taubenberger@afip.osd.mil The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated.

What theory provides partial explanation for the age-specific profile of the death rate in the 1918 swine flu pandemic?

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068164/ SHA: ce358c18aac69fc83c7b2e9a7dca4a43b0f60e2e Authors: Spiteri, Gianfranco; Fielding, James; Diercke, Michaela; Campese, Christine; Enouf, Vincent; Gaymard, Alexandre; Bella, Antonino; Sognamiglio, Paola; Sierra Moros, Maria José; Riutort, Antonio Nicolau; Demina, Yulia V.; Mahieu, Romain; Broas, Markku; Bengnér, Malin; Buda, Silke; Schilling, Julia; Filleul, Laurent; Lepoutre, Agnès; Saura, Christine; Mailles, Alexandra; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Coignard, Bruno; Bernard-Stoecklin, Sibylle; Behillil, Sylvie; van der Werf, Sylvie; Valette, Martine; Lina, Bruno; Riccardo, Flavia; Nicastri, Emanuele; Casas, Inmaculada; Larrauri, Amparo; Salom Castell, Magdalena; Pozo, Francisco; Maksyutov, Rinat A.; Martin, Charlotte; Van Ranst, Marc; Bossuyt, Nathalie; Siira, Lotta; Sane, Jussi; Tegmark-Wisell, Karin; Palmérus, Maria; Broberg, Eeva K.; Beauté, Julien; Jorgensen, Pernille; Bundle, Nick; Pereyaslov, Dmitriy; Adlhoch, Cornelia; Pukkila, Jukka; Pebody, Richard; Olsen, Sonja; Ciancio, Bruno Christian Date: 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.9.2000178 License: cc-by Abstract: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters’ index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. Text: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. A cluster of pneumonia of unknown origin was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1] . On 12 January 2020, Chinese authorities shared the sequence of a novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from some clustered cases [2] . Since then, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID -19) . As at 21 February 2020, the virus had spread rapidly mostly within China but also to 28 other countries, including in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region [3] [4] [5] . Here we describe the epidemiology of the first cases of COVID-19 in this region, excluding cases reported in the United Kingdom (UK), as at 21 February 2020. The study includes a comparison between cases detected among travellers from China and cases whose infection was acquired due to subsequent local transmission. On 27 January 2020, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe asked countries to complete a WHO standard COVID-19 case report form for all confirmed and probable cases according to WHO criteria [6] [7] [8] . The overall aim of surveillance at this time was to support the global strategy of containment of COVID-19 with rapid identification and follow-up of cases linked to affected countries in order to minimise onward transmission. The surveillance objectives were to: describe the key epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected in Europe; inform country preparedness; and improve further case detection and management. Data collected included demographics, history of recent travel to affected areas, close contact with a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, underlying conditions, signs and symptoms of disease at onset, type of specimens from which the virus was detected, and clinical outcome. The WHO case definition was adopted for surveillance: a confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (ECDC recommended two separate SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests), irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms, whereas a probable case was a suspect case for whom testing for SARS-CoV-2 was inconclusive or positive using a pan-coronavirus assay [8] . By 31 January 2020, 47 laboratories in 31 countries, including 38 laboratories in 24 European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries, had diagnostic capability for SARS-CoV-2 available (close to 60% of countries in the WHO European Region), with cross-border shipment arrangements in place for many of those lacking domestic testing capacity. The remaining six EU/EEA countries were expected to have diagnostic testing available by mid-February [9] . As at 09:00 on 21 February 2020, 47 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the WHO European Region and one of these cases had died [4] . Data on 38 of these cases (i.e. all except the nine reported in the UK) are included in this analysis. The first three cases detected were reported in France on 24 January 2020 and had onset of symptoms on 17, 19 and 23 January respectively [10] . The first death was reported on 15 February in France. As at 21 February, nine countries had reported cases ( Figure) : Belgium (1), Finland (1), France (12), Germany (16), Italy (3), Russia (2), Spain (2), Sweden (1) and the UK (9 -not included further). The place of infection (assessed at national level based on an incubation period presumed to be up to 14 days [11] , travel history and contact with probable or confirmed cases as per the case definition) was reported for 35 cases (missing for three cases), of whom 14 were infected in China (Hubei province: 10 cases; Shandong province: one case; province not reported for three cases). The remaining 21 cases were infected in Europe. Of these, 14 were linked to a cluster in Bavaria, Germany, and seven to a cluster in Haute-Savoie, France [12, 13] . Cases from the Bavarian cluster were reported from Germany and Spain, whereas cases from the Haute-Savoie cluster were reported from France All but two cases were hospitalised (35 of 37 where information on hospitalisation was reported), although it is likely that most were hospitalised to isolate the person rather than because of severe disease. The time from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation (and isolation) ranged between 0 and 10 days with a mean of 3.7 days (reported for 29 cases). The mean number of days to hospitalisation was 2.5 days for cases imported from China, but 4.6 days for those infected in Europe. This was mostly a result of delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany. In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six took only a mean of 2 days to be hospitalised. Symptoms at the point of diagnosis were reported for 31 cases. Two cases were asymptomatic and remained so until tested negative. The asymptomatic cases were tested as part of screening following repatriation and during contact tracing respectively. Of the remaining 29, 20 reported fever, 14 reported cough and eight reported weakness. Additional symptoms reported included headaches (6 cases), sore throat (2), rhinorrhoea (2), shortness of breath (2), myalgia (1), diarrhoea (1) and nausea (1). Fever was reported as the sole symptom for nine cases. In 16 of 29 symptomatic cases, the symptoms at diagnosis were consistent with the case definition for acute respiratory infection [16] , although it is possible that cases presented additional symptoms after diagnosis and these were not reported. Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease. No data on clinical signs e.g. dyspnea etc. were reported for any of the 38 cases. All hospitalised cases had a benign clinical evolution except four, two reported in Italy and two reported in France, all of whom developed viral pneumonia. All three cases who were aged 65 years or over were admitted to intensive care and required respiratory support and one French case died. The case who died was hospitalised for 21 days and required intensive care and mechanical ventilation for 19 days. The duration of hospitalisation was reported for 16 cases with a median of 13 days (range: 8-23 days). As at 21 February 2020, four cases were still hospitalised. All cases were confirmed according to specific assays targeting at least two separate genes (envelope (E) gene as a screening test and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene or nucleoprotein (N) gene for confirmation) [8, 17] . The specimen types tested were reported for 27 cases: 15 had positive nasopharyngeal swabs, nine had positive throat swabs, three cases had positive sputum, two had a positive nasal swab, one case had a positive nasopharyngeal aspirate and one a positive endotracheal aspirate. As at 09:00 on 21 February, few COVID-19 cases had been detected in Europe compared with Asia. However the situation is rapidly developing, with a large outbreak recently identified in northern Italy, with transmission in several municipalities and at least two deaths [18] . As at 5 March 2020, there are 4,250 cases including 113 deaths reported among 38 countries in the WHO European region [19] . In our analysis of early cases, we observed transmission in two broad contexts: sporadic cases among travellers from China (14 cases) and cases who acquired infection due to subsequent local transmission in Europe (21 cases). Our analysis shows that the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation/case isolation was about 3 days longer for locally acquired cases than for imported cases. People returning from affected areas are likely to have a low threshold to seek care and be tested when symptomatic, however delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany meant that locally acquired cases took longer to be detected and isolated. Once the exposure is determined and contacts identified and quarantined (171 contacts in France and 200 in Germany for the clusters in Haute-Savoie and Bavaria, respectively), further cases are likely to be rapidly detected and isolated when they develop symptoms [15, 20] . In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six were hospitalised after a mean of 2 days. Locally acquired cases require significant resources for contact tracing and quarantine, and countries should be prepared to allocate considerable public health resources during the containment phase, should local clusters emerge in their population. In addition, prompt sharing of information on cases and contacts through international notification systems such as the International Health Regulations (IHR) mechanism and the European Commission's European Early Warning and Response System is essential to contain international spread of infection. All of the imported cases had a history of travel to China. This was consistent with the epidemiological situation in Asia, and supported the recommendation for testing of suspected cases with travel history to China and potentially other areas of presumed ongoing community transmission. The situation has evolved rapidly since then, however, and the number of countries reporting COVID-19 transmission increased rapidly, notably with a large outbreak in northern Italy with 3,089 cases reported as at 5 March [18, 19] . Testing of suspected cases based on geographical risk of importation needs to be complemented with additional approaches to ensure early detection of local circulation of COVID-19, including through testing of severe acute respiratory infections in hospitals irrespectively of travel history as recommended in the WHO case definition updated on 27 February 2020 [21] . The clinical presentation observed in the cases in Europe is that of an acute respiratory infection. However, of the 31 cases with information on symptoms, 20 cases presented with fever and nine cases presented only with fever and no other symptoms. These findings, which are consistent with other published case series, have prompted ECDC to include fever among several clinical signs or symptoms indicative for the suspected case definition. Three cases were aged 65 years or over. All required admission to intensive care and were tourists (imported cases). These findings could reflect the average older age of the tourist population compared with the local contacts exposed to infection in Europe and do not allow us to draw any conclusion on the proportion of severe cases that we could expect in the general population of Europe. Despite this, the finding of older individuals being at higher risk of a severe clinical course is consistent with the evidence from Chinese case series published so far although the majority of infections in China have been mild [22, 23] . This preliminary analysis is based on the first reported cases of COVID-19 cases in the WHO European Region. Given the small sample size, and limited completeness for some variables, all the results presented should be interpreted with caution. With increasing numbers of cases in Europe, data from surveillance and investigations in the region can build on the evidence from countries in Asia experiencing more widespread transmission particularly on disease spectrum and the proportion of infections with severe outcome [22] . Understanding the infection-severity is critical to help plan for the impact on the healthcare system and the wider population. Serological studies are vital to understand the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic. Hospital-based surveillance could help estimate the incidence of severe cases and identify risk factors for severity and death. Established hospital surveillance systems that are in place for influenza and other diseases in Europe may be expanded for this purpose. In addition, a number of countries in Europe are adapting and, in some cases, already using existing sentinel primary care based surveillance systems for influenza to detect community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This approach will be used globally to help identify evidence of widespread community transmission and, should the virus spread and containment no longer be deemed feasible, to monitor intensity of disease transmission, trends and its geographical spread. Additional research is needed to complement surveillance data to build knowledge on the infectious period, modes of transmission, basic and effective reproduction numbers, and effectiveness of prevention and case management options also in settings outside of China. Such special studies are being conducted globally, including a cohort study on citizens repatriated from China to Europe, with the aim to extrapolate disease incidence and risk factors for infection in areas with community transmission. Countries together with ECDC and WHO, should use all opportunities to address these questions in a coordinated fashion at the European and global level. provided input to the outline, multiple versions of the manuscript and gave approval to the final draft.

When was COVID surveillance implemented in European region?

Metabolic engineering of Escherichia coli into a versatile glycosylation platform: production of bio-active quercetin glycosides https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4573293/ SHA: f4cd52975e6aa33e8c947082eda9b261952b0f8f Authors: De Bruyn, Frederik; Van Brempt, Maarten; Maertens, Jo; Van Bellegem, Wouter; Duchi, Dries; De Mey, Marjan Date: 2015-09-16 DOI: 10.1186/s12934-015-0326-1 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Flavonoids are bio-active specialized plant metabolites which mainly occur as different glycosides. Due to the increasing market demand, various biotechnological approaches have been developed which use Escherichia coli as a microbial catalyst for the stereospecific glycosylation of flavonoids. Despite these efforts, most processes still display low production rates and titers, which render them unsuitable for large-scale applications. RESULTS: In this contribution, we expanded a previously developed in vivo glucosylation platform in E. coli W, into an efficient system for selective galactosylation and rhamnosylation. The rational of the novel metabolic engineering strategy constitutes of the introduction of an alternative sucrose metabolism in the form of a sucrose phosphorylase, which cleaves sucrose into fructose and glucose 1-phosphate as precursor for UDP-glucose. To preserve these intermediates for glycosylation purposes, metabolization reactions were knocked-out. Due to the pivotal role of UDP-glucose, overexpression of the interconverting enzymes galE and MUM4 ensured the formation of both UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose, respectively. By additionally supplying exogenously fed quercetin and overexpressing a flavonol galactosyltransferase (F3GT) or a rhamnosyltransferase (RhaGT), 0.94 g/L hyperoside (quercetin 3-O-galactoside) and 1.12 g/L quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside) could be produced, respectively. In addition, both strains showed activity towards other promising dietary flavonols like kaempferol, fisetin, morin and myricetin. CONCLUSIONS: Two E. coli W mutants were engineered that could effectively produce the bio-active flavonol glycosides hyperoside and quercitrin starting from the cheap substrates sucrose and quercetin. This novel fermentation-based glycosylation strategy will allow the economically viable production of various glycosides. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12934-015-0326-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: Flavonoids are a class of plant secondary metabolites, which are chemically characterized by a 15-carbon backbone that consists of two phenyl rings and a heterocyclic ring. To date, over 10,000 flavonoids have been characterized from various plants, which are classified according to their chemical structure, i.e., the number and presence of hydroxyl groups and further functional group modifications into various subgroups, such as anthoxanthins, flavanones, and flavanonols [1, 2] . In recent years flavonoids have garnered much attention from various application domains because of the various beneficial effects on human health that have been attributed to them, such as anticancer [3] and antioxidant [4] to anti-inflammatory [5] , antimicrobial [6] and antiviral [6, 7] effects. As final step in their biosynthesis, flavonoids are often glycosylated which has a profound effect on their solubility, stability and bio-activity [8, 9] . For example, the best studied flavonol quercetin, which makes up to 75 % of our daily flavonoid intake, predominantly occurs as different glycosides. Over 350 different quercetin glycoforms have been reported to date with varying pharmacological properties [10, 11] . In this context, hyperoside (quercetin 3-O-galactoside) and quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside) ( Fig. 1) have gained a lot of attention as valuable products for the pharmaceutical industry e.g., as powerful antioxidants with cytoprotective effects [12] [13] [14] [15] and as promising antiviral agents that block replication of the influenza virus [16] or inhibit the viruses hepatitis B [17] and SARS [18] . Furthermore, they have been attributed with anti-inflammatory [19, 20] , antidepressant [21, 22] , apoptotic [23] and antifungal [24] activities, rendering them interesting therapeutics resulting in a steadily increasing market demand. To date, the majority of quercetin and its glycosides are extracted from plant material, which is generally a laborious and low-yielding process requiring many purification steps [25] . In vitro plant cell cultures or engineered plants can be used to overcome the low yields and improve production [26] [27] [28] , however since metabolic engineering of plants is both very controversial and still in its infancy [29] , this approach is often restricted to small-scale production. Although chemical synthesis of quercetin (glycosides) has proven to be feasible [30] [31] [32] , stereoselective formation of glycosidic linkages is often hampered by the presence of various reactive groups [33] , which requires many protecting and deprotecting steps [34] . In addition, the generation of toxic waste and a low atomefficiency [35] render these production processes neither sustainable nor economically viable. As a result, in the last two decades enormous efforts have been invested in the development of alternative production methods for these specialized (secondary) plant metabolites [36] . Advances in the fields of protein engineering, systems and synthetic biology have accelerated these efforts to transform model organisms like Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae in real microbial cell factories for the sustainable production of flavonoids [37] [38] [39] . Subsequently, strategies for the in vivo glycosylation of flavonoids have also been developed. These are typically based on both the overexpression of specific glycosyltransferases, which transfer a sugar residue from an activated nucleotide sugar to an aglycon in a stereoand regioselective way, and the engineering or introduction of the targeted nucleotide sugar pathway. In this way, Fig. 1 Transformation of E. coli W into a sucrose-based galactosylation and rhamnosylation platform. The metabolic engineering strategy applied makes use of several gene deletions (indicated in red) and overexpressions of genes (indicated in green). The rational of a split metabolism is applied, whereby sucrose is divided by sucrose phosphorylase (BaSP) in fructose to be used for growth and a glucose 1-phosphate as activated precursor for UDP-glucose. The latter is a universal pivot molecule for the formation of UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose, interconversions catalyzed by the enzymes GalE and MUM4, respectively. To ensure growth-coupled production, various genes, involved in the metabolization of these UDPsugars and their precursors, were knocked out (shown in red). The production of the bioactive quercetin glycosides hyperoside and quercitrin was chosen to evaluate the versatility of the engineered production platform. Finally, the introduction of either the glycosyltransferase F3GT or RhaGT ensures efficient galactosylation or rhamnosylation, respectively various quercetin glycosides have already been produced in E. coli such as the naturally occurring 3-O-glucoside [40] , 3-O-xyloside [41] and 3,7-O-bisrhamnoside [42] , or the new-to-nature quercetin 3-O-(6-deoxytalose) [43] . However, despite these engineering efforts, the reported product rates and titers are still in the milligram range, rendering these microbial production hosts unsuitable for industrial applications. The developed production processes are typically biphasic bioconversion processes using resting cells, which makes it difficult to improve production rates [44] . Furthermore, such systems often entail expensive growth media or the addition of enzyme inducers, making the overall process very costly. To tackle these problems, we previously developed an efficient platform for the glucosylation of small molecules in E. coli W [45] . Through metabolic engineering, a mutant was created which couples the production of glucosides to growth, using sucrose as a cheap and sustainable carbon source. By introducing the sucrose phosphorylase from Bifidobacterium adolescentis (BaSP) sucrose can be split into fructose to be used for growth purposes and glucose 1-phosphate (glc1P) to be used as precursor for UDP-glucose (UDP-glc) formation ( Fig. 1) . To impede the conversion of glc1P into biomass precursors, several endogenous genes involved in its metabolization such as phosphoglucomutase (pgm) and glucose-1-phosphatase (agp) were knocked out. Subsequently, glc1P can efficiently be channeled towards UDP-glc by overexpressing the uridylyltransferase from Bifidobacterium bifidum (ugpA). Metabolization of UDP-glc is prevented by knocking out the UDP-sugar hydrolase (ushA) and the galactose operon (galETKM). However, in view of the pivotal role of UDP-glc in the production of a large variety of UDP-sugars, this glucosylation system can easily be extended towards other UDP-sugars, such as UDP-galactose (UDP-gal), UDPrhamnose (UDP-rha) and UDP-glucuronate. In the present contribution, this previously developed E. coli W-based glucosylation platform is transformed into a platform for galactosylation and rhamnosylation ( Fig. 1) , whose potential is demonstrated using the galactosylation and rhamnosylation of exogenously fed quercetin yielding hyperoside and quercitrin, respectively, as case study. Escherichia coli W is a fast-growing non-pathogenic strain which tolerates osmotic stress, acidic conditions, and can be cultured to high cell densities, making it an attractive host for industrial fermentations [46] . Moreover, E. coli W is able to grow on sucrose as sole carbon source [46] , which is an emerging feedstock for the production of bio-products. Hence, E. coli W was selected as host for sucrose-based in vivo glycosylation. Prior to the production of the glycosides hyperoside and quercitrin in E. coli W, the toxicity of their aglycon quercetin was investigated. To this end, the wild type (WT) strain was grown on minimal sucrose medium containing different concentrations of quercetin (0, 0.15 and 1.5 g/L). The specific growth rates (h −1 ) (0.96 ± 0.06, 0.92 ± 0.05 and 0.87 ± 0.06, respectively) were not significantly different (p ANOVA = 0.12) nor from the one previously determined for the WT [45] (p = 0.69, p = 0.98 and p = 0.68, respectively). On the other hand, the optical density at 600 nm after 24 h incubation (6.36 ± 0.12, 5.18 ± 0.16 and 4.77 ± 0.20, respectively) was lower (about 20 %) when quercetin was added (p = 0.0002 and p = 0.0001). No significant difference in optical density could be observed between 0.15 and 1.5 g/L quercetin (p = 0.14). In view of the above, it was opted to add 1.5 g/L quercetin to evaluate the potential of the developed glycosylation platform. To evaluate the in vivo glycosylation potential, strains sGAL1 and sRHA1, which constitutively express the flavonol 3-O-galactosyltransferase from Petunia hybrida and the flavonol 3-O-rhamnosyltransferase from A. thaliana, respectively, were cultured in minimal medium with 1.5 g/L of quercetin for 16 h. TLC analysis of the supernatants of both cultures yielded two new yellow product spots. The TLC spot obtained from the sGAL1 culture, which had the same retention time as the hyperoside standard (R f = 0.5), was subsequently purified and analyzed. Both NMR and MS analysis confirmed the production of quercetin 3-O-galactoside. However, the product spot obtained from the sRHA1 culture had a different retention factor (R f = 0.55) than the quercitrin standard (R f = 0.74), and was identified as isoquercitrin (quercetin 3-O-glucoside). As opposed to other reports on wild type E. coli strains expressing RhaGT, which simultaneously produced quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside) and isoquercitrin [47, 48] , no rhamnoside could be detected. Examination of the E. coli W genome revealed that the gene cluster responsible for the endogenous production of dTDP-rhamnose, which functions as an alternative rhamnosyldonor for RhaGT in E. coli B and K12 derivatives [47] , was not present [46, 49] . In a follow-up experiment, sGAL1 and sRHA1 were grown on minimal medium with two different concentrations (0.15 and 1.5 g/L) of quercetin. Growth and glycoside formation were monitored during 30 h. The final titers (C p ) and specific productivities (q p ) are shown in Fig. 2 . Remarkably, an increase in quercetin concentration resulted in a two to threefold increase in productivity and titer, indicating that quercetin supply is rate-limiting and crucial for efficient in vivo glycosylation. However, while sGAL1 continuously produced hyperoside during the exponential phase, which is also reflected in the relatively high specific productivity, sRHA1 only started to accumulate significant amounts of isoquercitrin at the end of the exponential phase. This production start coincides with a reduction in specific growth rate, which dropped from 0.35 ± 0.04 to 0.06 ± 0.01 h −1 . As described in detail in the Background section, we previously metabolically engineered E. coli W to create a platform for in vivo glucosylation of small molecules [45] . In the original base glucosylation strain, sucrose phosphorylase encoded by BaSP was located on a mediumcopy plasmid and transcribed from a medium-strong constitutive promoter (P22) [50] . For reasons of comparison and flexibility, it was opted to integrate BaSP in the genome of E. coli W. In addition, chromosomal integration is advantageous because of a significant increase in gene stability. Since the level of gene expression can considerably be impacted by the genome integration site [51] due to structural differences such as supercoiling DNA regions, two different DNA sites were assessed for BaSP integration, i.e., melA and glgC, which encode an α-galactosidase and a glucose-1-phosphate adenylyltransferase, respectively. To this end, an adapted knockin-knockout procedure for large DNA fragments was applied, which is schematically shown in Additional file 1: Figure S2 . BaSP under control of promoter P22 was knocked in at the two different loci in E. coli W ΔcscAR, which resulted in the E. coli W strains ΔcscAR ΔmelA::L4-P22-BaSP-L5 and ΔcscAR ΔglgC::L4-P22-BaSP-L5. Their maximal specific growth rate (µ max ) on minimal sucrose medium, which is shown in Fig. 3 , was compared to the original strain ΔcscAR + pBaSP. The influence of the knockin locus on the maximal specific growth rate is clear. Interestingly, integration at the melA locus resulted in a strain with a µ max which was not significantly different from the reference strain ΔcscAR + pBaSP. In view of the latter and considering the aimed growth-coupled production, it was opted to integrate BaSP at the melA locus leading to the final production base strain E. coli W ΔcscAR Δpgm Δagp ΔushA ΔlacZYA::P22-lacY ΔgalETKM ΔmelA::L4-P22-BaSP-L5 (sGLYC) as shown in Table 1 . In nature, UDP-glc serves as a pivot molecule in the formation of a variety of UDP-sugars [44] . For example, using the interconverting enzymes UDP-glucose 4-epimerase (GalE) and UDP-rhamnose synthase (MUM4) UDP-glc can be converted to UDP-gal and UDP-rha, respectively. Though GalE is natively present in E. coli W an alternative homologous epimerase (GalE2) from B. bifidum was also selected and cloned due to the Fig. 2 Comparison of the specific glycoside productivities (q p ) and glycoside titers (C p ) for strains sGAL1, which produces the 3-O-galactoside, and sRHA1, which produces the 3-O-glucoside, when grown for 30 h on minimal medium containing 0.15 or 1.5 g/L of quercetin. Error bars represent standard deviations tight and complex regulation of GalE expression in E. coli W. On the other hand, UDP-rhamnose synthesis is restricted to plants. Due to lack of the rfb cluster [46] E. coli W is even unable to form endogenous dTDP-rhamnose as alternative rhamnosyl donor. Hence, the MUM4 gene from A. thaliana was expressed from plasmid pMUM4 to achieve UDP-rhamnose formation in E. coli (Fig. 1) . The constructed galactosylation (sGAL) and rhamnosylation (sRHA) strains were grown on minimal medium with two levels (0.15 and 1.5 g/L) of quercetin. Growth and production were monitored to determine the specific productivities, as shown in Fig. 4 . Again, higher extracellular quercetin concentrations resulted in a fivefold increase in q p . However, no significant difference in productivity was observed between sGAL2 and sGAL3 at 1.5 g/L quercetin, indicating that UDP-galactose formation is as efficient with both GalE homologs and not likely the rate limiting step. With sGAL3, the highest hyperoside productivity (68.7 mg/g CDW/h) and titer (0.94 g/L) were obtained, the latter being 3.5-fold higher compared to sGAL1. In contrast to sRHA1, TLC analysis of the supernatant of the cultures of sRHA2 and sRHA3 resulted in a product spot with a retention factor that corresponds to quercitrin, which was confirmed by MS analysis, thus showing in vivo activity of MUM4. A quercitrin titer of 1.18 g/L and specific productivity of 47.8 mg/g CDW/h were obtained after 30 h incubation of sRHA3 when 1.5 g/L quercetin was added to the medium, which corresponded to a 53 % conversion. Also 51 mg/L of isoquercitrin was produced extracellularly which corresponds with a quercitrin:isoquercitrin production ratio of 24:1. This suggests the preference of RhaGT for UDP-rhamnose when different UDP-sugar donors are present. Possible explanations for the significantly lower specific productivity (fivefold decrease) of sRHA2 as compared to sRHA3 are either a higher metabolic burden [52] caused by the two plasmid system or a too limited activity of the native GalU, which could be insufficient for adequate UDP-glc formation [45] . To demonstrate the scalability of the developed bioprocess, strain sGAL3 was cultured in a 1-L bioreactor, which also ensures a constant pH set at 6.80 and avoid oxygen limitation. A detailed overview of the consumption of sucrose, growth and hyperoside production is given in Fig. 5 . After a lag-phase, the strain displayed a growth rate of 0.32 ± 0.02 h −1 while simultaneously producing hyperoside. The observed specific productivity (65.9 ± 2.6 mg/g CDW/h) was comparable to the one obtained on shake flask scale. When nearly all quercetin was converted, hyperoside formation slowed down, which can be explained either by the observed correlation between quercetin concentration and q p , or by the reported reversibility of F3GT [53] . It is likely that further improvements in titer and productivity can be realized by optimizing the supply of quercetin using a fed-batch system. To the best of our knowledge, the results obtained in this study with the engineered sGAL and sRHA strains for the production of hyperoside and quercitrin are the highest reported to date both in terms of titer and production rate. The maximal production rate obtained in this contribution was 6 to 50-fold higher compared to the maximal production rates (r p,max ) of processes reported in the literature [47, 54] as is illustrated in Fig. 6 . The increased performance, in terms of titer and productivity, obtained with the developed platform can be attributed to the use of a split metabolism in combination with optimally rerouting the flux from glucose 1-phosphate towards UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose. The undesired conversion of the activated sugars into biomass Fig. 3 Effect of the chromosomal integration locus of the knockin of BaSP on the growth rate. Strains were grown in shake flasks and the resulting maximal growth rates (µ max ) were compared with E. coli W ΔcscAR with plasmid-based BaSP expression (+pBaSP). Error bars represent standard deviations is impeded by gene deletions, which guarantees a high product yield. In addition, since biomass formation, which is fueled by the fructose moiety of sucrose, and glycoside synthesis go hand in hand and subsequently are performed at the same time at a high rate, a high productivity is equally guaranteed (one-step fermentation process). Besides quercetin also other flavonols such as kaempferol, fisetin, morin and myricetin significantly contribute to our daily flavonoid intake, which also have extremely diverse beneficial effects [55, 56] . As the sugar moiety is a major determinant of the intestinal absorption of dietary flavonoids and their subsequent bioactivity [57, 58] , the To this end, strains sGAL3 and sRHA3 were grown in tubes with 5 mL minimal medium, each containing 1.5 g/L of either kaempferol, myricetin, morin or fisetin. Growth and production were monitored over 48 h and various spots were observed on TLC with similar retention factors as hyperoside and quercitrin. Mass spectrometry was used to identify the compounds produced, which confirmed the in vivo galactosylation of myricetin, kaempferol, morin and fisetin ( Table 2 ). All compounds occurred with an m/z of [M + 114], due to complexation with trifluoroacetic acid from the mobile phase. The galactoside of morin was produced at a slow rate, which is in accordance to the very low in vitro activity of F3GT towards this flavonol [53] . A possible explanation for this limited activity may be the presence of an unusual hydroxyl group at the 2′ position, which may sterically hinder deprotonation and consequent galactosylation of morin at hydroxyl group 3 [59] . Incubation of sRHA3 with the different flavonols investigated showed two distinct glycoside spots on TLC, which corresponded to the 3-O-rhamnoside and 3-O-glucoside. Kaempferol proved to be the best substrate for RhaGT and was predominantly rhamnosylated (8:1 ratio), with a titer exceeding 400 mg/L, which is twofold higher than previously reported [47] . Fisetin on the other hand was efficiently glucosylated, yet the formation of its rhamnoside was not as efficient, with a titer below 5 mg/L. A similar preference towards glucoside formation was also observed with myricetin and morin, which indicates that the positioning of the hydroxyl groups is the determining factor for glycosylation with RhaGT. The production of the desired rhamnosides, galactosides or glucosides may be improved considerably by using UGTs that are more specific towards certain flavonols and UDP-sugars. Transformation of the corresponding UGTs in the developed in vivo glycosylation strains presents a promising alternative for the large-scale production of various flavonol glycoforms, which are to date mainly extracted from plant material. On the other hand, due to the pivotal role of UDP-glc, various other UDP-sugars can be formed in vivo (e.g. UDP-glucuronate, UDP-xylose, UDP-arabinose). In combination with the modularity of the developed glycosylation platform, which permits rapid introduction of any UGT or UDP-sugar pathway, virtually any glycoside can be produced. Hence, this demonstrates that the proposed microbial platform is a robust, versatile and efficient microbial cell factory for the glycosylation (e.g. glucosylation, rhamnosylation, galactosylation) of small molecules. Although obtained productivities are the highest reported today and compete with the current production processes, further improvement can be limited due to solubility issues of the aglycon or of the glycoside. To this end follow-up research can focus on further metabolic engineering (e.g. introduction of the aglycon pathway allowing in vivo gradually production of the aglycon) or on process optimization [e.g. 2-phase (bilayer) fermentation which enables in situ recovery] to improve these issues. In this contribution, a biotechnological platform was developed for the galactosylation and rhamnosylation of small molecules, such as secondary metabolite natural products, starting from a previously created glucosylation host. To this end, the routes to convert UDP-glucose into UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose were introduced by expressing a UDP-glucose epimerase (galE) and a UDP-rhamnose synthase (MUM4), respectively. As a proof of concept, the bio-active flavonol quercetin was selected for galactosylation and rhamnosylation, yielding hyperoside (quercetin 3-O-galactoside) and quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside), respectively. Next, the flavonol 3-O-galactosyltransferase (F3GT) from Petunia hybrida and the flavonol 3-O-rhamnosyltransferase from Arabidopsis thaliana (RhaGT) were overexpressed in the metabolically engineered E. coli W mutants. The strains created were able to produce 940 mg/L of hyperoside and 1176 mg/L of quercitrin at specific production rates of 68.7 mg/g CDW/h and 47.8 mg/g CDW/h, respectively, which are the highest reported to date. Interestingly, both GTs showed in vivo activity towards other dietary flavonols, whereby for example over 400 mg/L of kaempferol 3-O-rhamnoside could be formed extracellularly. All plasmids used were constructed using Gibson assembly [60] or CLIVA [61] . All PCR fragments were amplified using Q5 polymerase from New England Biolabs (Ipswich, Massachusetts). Oligonucleotides were purchased from IDT (Leuven, Belgium). The plasmids and bacterial strains used in this study are listed in Table 1 . A list of primers for the creation of gene knockouts/knockins and for the cloning of the expression plasmids is given in Additional file 2: Table S1 . E. coli DH5α was used for plasmid cloning and propagation, while E. coli W was used for expression of the production plasmids and the creation of gene knockouts and knockins. Hyperoside, quercitrin, isoquercitrin, kaempferol and myricetin were purchased from Carbosynth (Berkshire, UK). All other chemicals used were purchased from Sigma Aldrich (Germany) unless otherwise indicated. The expression plasmids for the prod uction of hyperoside and quercitrin were constructed as depicted in Additional file 3: Figure S1A Figure S1D ). The galE [Genbank: JW0742] and galE2 [Genbank: KJ543703] sequences were amplified from the genomic DNA of E. coli and Bifidobacterium bifidum, respectively. CLIVA assembly resulted in the intermediary plasmid pBaSP/F3GT/UgpA ( Figure S1A ), which was subsequently used for the amplification of the F3GT/ UgpA backbone. Gibson assembly of the GalE or GalE2 inserts with this backbone resulted in the final galactosylation plasmids pGalE/F3GT/UgpA and pGalE2/F3GT/ UgpA, respectively ( Figure S1B ). Similarly, MUM4 and RhaGT were introduced using a 3-pieces Gibson assembly ( Figure S1C ), resulting in the final rhamnosylation plasmid pMUM4/RhaGT/UgpA. The overall E. coli W knockout mutants were created using the one step deletion system of Datsenko and Wanner [62] . The strategy for chromosomal integration of BaSP under control of the constitutive promoter P22 flanked by L4 and L5 at the melA and glgC loci is depicted and explained in Additional file 1: Figure S2 . Transformants were plated on minimal sucrose medium agar plates and grown overnight for screening. The in-house strain E. coli W ΔcscAR Δpgm Δagp ΔushA ΔlacZYA::P22-lacY ΔgalETKM [45] was used for the chromosomal integration of L4-P22-BaSP-L5 at the melA site, yielding the base strain sGLYC (Table 1) . This strain and the E. coli W wild type were transformed with the production plasmids described above, resulting in the galactosylation (sGAL) and rhamnosylation (sRHA) strains given in Table 1 . Composition of LB and minimal sucrose medium was described previously [45] . Minimal medium agar plates with sucrose (50 g/L) had the same composition as minimal sucrose medium, but contained additionally 15 g/L of agarose. The agarose and salts were autoclaved separately at 121 °C for 21 min. Sucrose was filter sterilized through a 0.22 µm corning filter (Fisher, Belgium) and heated for 1 min in a microwave oven at 800 W prior to mixing it with the warm agarose and salt solutions. 1 mL/L of mineral solution [45] was sterilely added prior to pouring the plates. Escherichia coli W mutant precultures were grown in 5 mL LB medium with the antibiotics (50 μg/mL kanamycin or carbenicillin) required for maintenance and selection of the plasmids. The cultures were grown for 16 h at 37 °C and 200 rpm and used for the 2 % inoculation of 100 mL minimal sucrose medium in 500 mL shake flasks. For the production of hyperoside and quercitrin, quercetin was added to the minimal medium at a concentration of 0.15 or 1.5 g/L. Growth conditions were the same as previously described [45] . Samples were taken at regular intervals from the broth and, after centrifugation, the supernatant was used for the analysis and quantification of sugars. For the analysis of quercetin and its glycosides, 200 µL of the culture was collected and extracted with 800 µL ethyl acetate. The organic layer was collected, evaporated in a SpeedVac ™ vacuum concentrator (Thermo Fisher, USA) and dissolved in 200 µL of DMSO for HPLC quantification. The bioreactor set-up and fermentation conditions used are the same as previously described [45] . Production experiments were performed on minimal sucrose medium without MOPS buffer and with the addition of quercetin as acceptor. Culture samples were primarily analyzed by TLC on Silica gel 60 F 254 precoated plates (Merck, Germany). All plates were run in a closed TLC chamber and developed using standard visualization techniques and agents: UV fluorescence (254 nm) or by staining with 10 % (v/v) H 2 SO 4 and subsequent charring. The mobile phase for detecting the various flavonols and corresponding glycosides consisted of an ethyl acetate:acetic acid:formic acid:water (100:11:11:27 v/v) mixture [63] . Product spot intensities of other flavonol glycosides were processed and quantified using ImageJ [64] . HPLC quantification of sucrose, fructose and glucose was performed using an X-bridge Amide column (35 μm, Waters, USA) as described previously [45] . Quercetin, hyperoside, quercitrin and isoquercitrin were detected with the method described by Pandey et al. [41] using a Varian HPLC system (Agilent technologies, California). Mass spectrometry for determination of the various flavonol glycosides was performed with a Micromass Quattro LC (McKinley Scientific, USA). Detection was performed in negative mode ESI-224 MS with a capillary voltage of 2.53 kV, a cone voltage of 20 V, cone and desolvation gas flows of 93 and 420 L/h, and source and cone temperatures of 150 and 350 °C, respectively. Quercetin glycosides were extracted from the broth with an equal volume of ethyl acetate after which the organic layer was evaporated to dryness. The remaining product was dissolved in the solvent system described above and run on a preparative TLC plate. The band containing hyperoside (R f 0.53) or quercitrin (R f 0.75) was scraped off, extracted with ethyl acetate and evaporated to yield a bright yellow powder. Products were confirmed by NMR. Spectra were reported elsewhere [47, 65] .

What was the conclusion of this study?

The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020 https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020330 SHA: 919c524f19f79213e6f81aa38502c70287d273dc Authors: Nishiura, Hiroshi; Jung, Sung-mok; Linton, Natalie M.; Kinoshita, Ryo; Yang, Yichi; Hayashi, Katsuma; Kobayashi, Tetsuro; Yuan, Baoyin; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R. Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020330 License: cc-by Abstract: A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred. Text: Since the announcement of a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, was made on 31 December 2019, many rapid virological, clinical, and epidemiological research responses have taken place [1, 2] . The causative agent of the pneumonia is suggested to be a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) of the same lineage (but genetically distinct) from the coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [1] . Cases in the initial cluster reported a common exposure-a seafood market in Wuhan where wild animals were served at a restaurant-indicating that a point-source zoonotic (animal-to-human) route was likely the main mode of transmission for those cases [2] . Although early reports from Wuhan [3] stated that (i) there were only tens of cases in the cluster and (ii) no human-to-human transmission was directly observed, the scientific community was alert to the possibility that the novel coronavirus would spread to other geographic locations-including other countries-via direct human-to-human transmission. In early January, the outbreak began to escalate rapidly with hundreds of cases now confirmed along with the presence of a few household clusters [4] [5] [6] [7] . As of 24 January 2020, the cumulative incidence in China is 830 cases, of which 549 cases were diagnosed in Hubei, 26 in Beijing, 20 in Shanghai, and 53 in Guangdong. Additionally, twenty-six deaths have been linked to the outbreak [6, 8] , and thirteen cases were exported to Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States as of 22 January 2020. Considering that enhanced surveillance has been underway in these importing countries, case ascertainment has been perhaps better in exported case data. Using a spatial back-calculation method and analyzing exported cases, we estimate the cumulative incidence of 2019-nCoV cases in China in real time, allowing us to update and discuss the extent of transmission at the source. Table 1 shows the incidence of exported cases by date of hospitalization and report. Due to the initial difficulty of diagnosis in the absence of established primer for polymerase chain reaction testing, the time lag between hospitalization and reporting was longer for early cases compared with that of more recent cases. Among the seven locations reporting importation, the total volume of inbound passengers from China was m = 63.1 million per year in 2017 [9] , of which 100q = 2.1% were from Wuhan [10] , a home of n = 19.0 million people as the catchment population of Wuhan airport. Two other locations with confirmed cases, i.e., Macau and Hong Kong, were excluded from the analysis, because it is commutable by land transporation and the first case in Hong Kong was indeed not via airtravel. As we already know from elsewhere [11] [12] [13] , given the observed cumulative count of c exported cases, we have a balance equation of the cumulative risk of infection: where T is the sum of incubation and infectious periods, and here is assumed to be 3.2 and 9.3 days [14] , respectively, assuming that these periods are similar to those of other coronaviruses, and thus, T = 12.5 days. The estimated incidence in China is then given bypn. With an ad-hoc assumption that the data are generated following the binomial sampling process among travelers from Wuhan, the cumulative incidence is then estimated using a maximum likelihood method. Table 1 also shows the estimated incidence in China. The first exportation event in Thailand suggests 423 cases with the upper confidence limit of 1863 cases. The estimated cumulative incidence has grown as additional cases have been reported. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, the cumulative incidence in China is estimated at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). Our latest estimate is comparable to a preliminary report posted by a research group at Imperial College London (ICL) on their own homepage on 22 January 2020 [26] that estimated the incidence based on three importation events at 4000 cases (95% CI: 1000, 9700). Possible reasons for the slight difference include (i) the number of travelers in the previous study was derived from airline passenger data [27] and (ii) the assumed length of T was different. Two other estimates have also been published: a preliminary study by a Northeastern University group estimated 1250 cases (95% CI: 350, 3000) as of 17 January 2020 [28] and a University of Hong Kong group estimated 1343 cases (95% CI: 547, 3446) as of 17 January 2020 [29] . The former study from the United States assumes that the catchment area population is 10 million (we use 11.1 million). The number of reported 2019-nCoV infections continues to grow as surveillance and detection methods improve. Our estimate and others [26, 28, 29] agree that the actual number of cases is likely in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than that of the originally linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred. Such exposures are expected to include human-to-human transmission, but the levels of transmissibility have yet to be quantified. It is still plausible that a substantial number of human infections arose from animal-to-human exposures, such as was the case during the first outbreak of highly pathogenic influenza (H7N9) in China, 2013, and the human-to-human transmissibility has yet to be quantified in an explicit manner. Despite initially restricting what information on the outbreak was shared publicly, the Chinese government has begun to respectfully provide updates on the situation on a daily basis. This encourages the real-time release of information by means of regularly updated situation reports, including epidemiological information with dates of exposure, illness onset, and hospitalization among cases. For researchers to be able to contribute to control efforts by improving situation awareness via an explicit risk assessment, it is crucial that detailed epidemiological data are posted to a public domain in real-time. Such datasets should include not only a deidentified line list of cases but also updates on the infection status of traced contacts. Information on exposure period and illness onset can assist with the estimation of important natural history parameters such as the incubation period. It is critical for the public health community and the public at large to understand more about the process of case ascertainment, including the current case definition and reporting system mechanisms. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

What is the number of inbound passengers from China?

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Seth Flaxmani Swapnil Mishra*, Axel Gandy*, H JulietteT Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba’, Gina Cuomo—Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Wi|| Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Ben Jeffrey, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati—Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Kris Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver Watson, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, NeilM.Ferguson1and Samir Bhatt*1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul LatifJameeI Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London Department of Statistics, University of Oxford *Contributed equally 1Correspondence: nei|.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk, s.bhatt@imperial.ac.uk Summary Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national Iockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number— a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of Iockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented a|| interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-Z up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% ofthe population. The proportion of the population infected to date — the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-Z is slowing. SUGGESTED CITATION Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy et 0/. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non— pharmaceutical interventions on COVID—19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 1 Introduction Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its global spread, large epidemics of the disease, caused by the virus designated COVID-19, have emerged in Europe. In response to the rising numbers of cases and deaths, and to maintain the capacity of health systems to treat as many severe cases as possible, European countries, like those in other continents, have implemented or are in the process of implementing measures to control their epidemics. These large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions vary between countries but include social distancing (such as banning large gatherings and advising individuals not to socialize outside their households), border closures, school closures, measures to isolate symptomatic individuals and their contacts, and large-scale lockdowns of populations with all but essential internal travel banned. Understanding firstly, whether these interventions are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic and secondly, which interventions are necessary to maintain control, is critical given their large economic and social costs. The key aim ofthese interventions is to reduce the effective reproduction number, Rt, ofthe infection, a fundamental epidemiological quantity representing the average number of infections, at time t, per infected case over the course of their infection. Ith is maintained at less than 1, the incidence of new infections decreases, ultimately resulting in control of the epidemic. If Rt is greater than 1, then infections will increase (dependent on how much greater than 1 the reproduction number is) until the epidemic peaks and eventually declines due to acquisition of herd immunity. In China, strict movement restrictions and other measures including case isolation and quarantine began to be introduced from 23rd January, which achieved a downward trend in the number of confirmed new cases during February, resulting in zero new confirmed indigenous cases in Wuhan by March 19th. Studies have estimated how Rt changed during this time in different areas ofChina from around 2-4 during the uncontrolled epidemic down to below 1, with an estimated 7-9 fold decrease in the number of daily contacts per person.1'2 Control measures such as social distancing, intensive testing, and contact tracing in other countries such as Singapore and South Korea have successfully reduced case incidence in recent weeks, although there is a riskthe virus will spread again once control measures are relaxed.3'4 The epidemic began slightly laterin Europe, from January or later in different regions.5 Countries have implemented different combinations of control measures and the level of adherence to government recommendations on social distancing is likely to vary between countries, in part due to different levels of enforcement. Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-Z presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by health systems”7 and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high-risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systematically biased view of trends. An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back-calculate infections from observed deaths. Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable, although the early focus of most surveillance systems on cases with reported travel histories to China may mean that some early deaths will have been missed. Whilst the recent trends in deaths will therefore be informative, there is a time lag in observing the effect of interventions on deaths since there is a 2-3-week period between infection, onset of symptoms and outcome. In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds (Bayesian credible intervals) of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities, and the reproduction number over time (Rt). We fit the model jointly to COVID-19 data from all these countries to assess whether there is evidence that interventions have so far been successful at reducing Rt below 1, with the strong assumption that particular interventions are achieving a similar impact in different countries and that the efficacy of those interventions remains constant over time. The model is informed more strongly by countries with larger numbers of deaths and which implemented interventions earlier, therefore estimates of recent Rt in countries with more recent interventions are contingent on similar intervention impacts. Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation of country-specific Rt with greater precision. Model and data details are presented in the appendix, validation and sensitivity are also presented in the appendix, and general limitations presented below in the conclusions. 2 Results The timing of interventions should be taken in the context of when an individual country’s epidemic started to grow along with the speed with which control measures were implemented. Italy was the first to begin intervention measures, and other countries followed soon afterwards (Figure 1). Most interventions began around 12th-14th March. We analyzed data on deaths up to 28th March, giving a 2-3-week window over which to estimate the effect of interventions. Currently, most countries in our study have implemented all major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For each country, we model the number of infections, the number of deaths, and Rt, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced (Figure 2- 12). Rt is the average number of secondary infections per infected individual, assuming that the interventions that are in place at time t stay in place throughout their entire infectious period. Every country has its own individual starting reproduction number Rt before interventions take place. Specific interventions are assumed to have the same relative impact on Rt in each country when they were introduced there and are informed by mortality data across all countries. Figure l: Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. For further details see Appendix 8.6. 2.1 Estimated true numbers of infections and current attack rates In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected (Figure 2) than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity. In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th, giving an attack rate of 9.8% [3.2%-25%] of the population (Table 1). Spain has recently seen a large increase in the number of deaths, and given its smaller population, our model estimates that a higher proportion of the population, 15.0% (7.0 [18-19] million people) have been infected to date. Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% with 600,000 [240,000-1,500,000] people infected. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table l: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible intervall) Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%] Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%] Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%] France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%] Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%] Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%] Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%] Spain 15% [3.7%-41%] Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%] Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%] United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] 2.2 Reproduction numbers and impact of interventions Averaged across all countries, we estimate initial reproduction numbers of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66], which is in line with other estimates.1'8 These estimates are informed by our choice of serial interval distribution and the initial growth rate of observed deaths. A shorter assumed serial interval results in lower starting reproduction numbers (Appendix 8.4.2, Appendix 8.4.6). The initial reproduction numbers are also uncertain due to (a) importation being the dominant source of new infections early in the epidemic, rather than local transmission (b) possible under-ascertainment in deaths particularly before testing became widespread. We estimate large changes in Rt in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. Overall, we cannot yet conclude whether current interventions are sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (posterior probability of being less than 1.0 is 44% on average across the countries). We are also unable to conclude whether interventions may be different between countries or over time. There remains a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. It is too early to detect substantial intervention impact in many countries at earlier stages of their epidemic (e.g. Germany, UK, Norway). Many interventions have occurred only recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the time lag between infection and death. This uncertainty will reduce as more data become available. For all countries, our model fits observed deaths data well (Bayesian goodness of fit tests). We also found that our model can reliably forecast daily deaths 3 days into the future, by withholding the latest 3 days of data and comparing model predictions to observed deaths (Appendix 8.3). The close spacing of interventions in time made it statistically impossible to determine which had the greatest effect (Figure 1, Figure 4). However, when doing a sensitivity analysis (Appendix 8.4.3) with uninformative prior distributions (where interventions can increase deaths) we find similar impact of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team interventions, which shows that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Figure 2: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt. Left: daily number of infections, brown bars are reported infections, blue bands are predicted infections, dark blue 50% credible interval (CI), light blue 95% CI. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if the Rt is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle: daily number of deaths, brown bars are reported deaths, blue bands are predicted deaths, CI as in left plot. Right: time-varying reproduction number Rt, dark green 50% CI, light green 95% CI. Icons are interventions shown at the time they occurred. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table 2: Totalforecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to 31 March in our model and in a counterfactual model (assuming no intervention had taken place). Estimated averted deaths over this time period as a result of the interventions. Numbers in brackets are 95% credible intervals. 2.3 Estimated impact of interventions on deaths Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31 March under ourfitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and R, = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3). Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments —WA|C). By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000- 84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted. These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. lfwe were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher. Figure 3: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for (a) Italy and (b) Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. Other countries are shown in Appendix 8.6. 03/0 25% 50% 753% 100% (no effect on transmissibility) (ends transmissibility Relative % reduction in R. Figure 4: Our model includes five covariates for governmental interventions, adjusting for whether the intervention was the first one undertaken by the government in response to COVID-19 (red) or was subsequent to other interventions (green). Mean relative percentage reduction in Rt is shown with 95% posterior credible intervals. If 100% reduction is achieved, Rt = 0 and there is no more transmission of COVID-19. No effects are significantly different from any others, probably due to the fact that many interventions occurred on the same day or within days of each other as shown in Figure l. 3 Discussion During this early phase of control measures against the novel coronavirus in Europe, we analyze trends in numbers of deaths to assess the extent to which transmission is being reduced. Representing the COVlD-19 infection process using a semi-mechanistic, joint, Bayesian hierarchical model, we can reproduce trends observed in the data on deaths and can forecast accurately over short time horizons. We estimate that there have been many more infections than are currently reported. The high level of under-ascertainment of infections that we estimate here is likely due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community. Despite this, only a small minority of individuals in each country have been infected, with an attack rate on average of 4.9% [l.9%-ll%] with considerable variation between countries (Table 1). Our estimates imply that the populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity ("50-75% if R0 is 2-4). Further, with Rt values dropping substantially, the rate of acquisition of herd immunity will slow down rapidly. This implies that the virus will be able to spread rapidly should interventions be lifted. Such estimates of the attack rate to date urgently need to be validated by newly developed antibody tests in representative population surveys, once these become available. We estimate that major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact on the time- varying reproduction numbers in countries where there has been time to observe intervention effects on trends in deaths (Italy, Spain). lfadherence in those countries has changed since that initial period, then our forecast of future deaths will be affected accordingly: increasing adherence over time will have resulted in fewer deaths and decreasing adherence in more deaths. Similarly, our estimates of the impact ofinterventions in other countries should be viewed with caution if the same interventions have achieved different levels of adherence than was initially the case in Italy and Spain. Due to the implementation of interventions in rapid succession in many countries, there are not enough data to estimate the individual effect size of each intervention, and we discourage attributing associations to individual intervention. In some cases, such as Norway, where all interventions were implemented at once, these individual effects are by definition unidentifiable. Despite this, while individual impacts cannot be determined, their estimated joint impact is strongly empirically justified (see Appendix 8.4 for sensitivity analysis). While the growth in daily deaths has decreased, due to the lag between infections and deaths, continued rises in daily deaths are to be expected for some time. To understand the impact of interventions, we fit a counterfactual model without the interventions and compare this to the actual model. Consider Italy and the UK - two countries at very different stages in their epidemics. For the UK, where interventions are very recent, much of the intervention strength is borrowed from countries with older epidemics. The results suggest that interventions will have a large impact on infections and deaths despite counts of both rising. For Italy, where far more time has passed since the interventions have been implemented, it is clear that the model without interventions does not fit well to the data, and cannot explain the sub-linear (on the logarithmic scale) reduction in deaths (see Figure 10). The counterfactual model for Italy suggests that despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe where the number of new deaths would have been 3.7 times higher (38,000 deaths averted) than currently observed. Even in the UK, much earlier in its epidemic, the recent interventions are forecasted to avert 370 total deaths up to 31 of March. 4 Conclusion and Limitations Modern understanding of infectious disease with a global publicized response has meant that nationwide interventions could be implemented with widespread adherence and support. Given observed infection fatality ratios and the epidemiology of COVlD-19, major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact in reducing transmission in countries with more advanced epidemics. It is too early to be sure whether similar reductions will be seen in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic. While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths. When forecasting 3 days and looking over the whole epidemic the number of deaths averted is substantial. We note that substantial innovation is taking place, and new more effective interventions or refinements of current interventions, alongside behavioral changes will further contribute to reductions in infections. We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism. Our approach is semi-mechanistic. We propose a plausible structure for the infection process and then estimate parameters empirically. However, many parameters had to be given strong prior distributions or had to be fixed. For these assumptions, we have provided relevant citations to previous studies. As more data become available and better estimates arise, we will update these in weekly reports. Our choice of serial interval distribution strongly influences the prior distribution for starting R0. Our infection fatality ratio, and infection-to-onset-to-death distributions strongly influence the rate of death and hence the estimated number of true underlying cases. We also assume that the effect of interventions is the same in all countries, which may not be fully realistic. This assumption implies that countries with early interventions and more deaths since these interventions (e.g. Italy, Spain) strongly influence estimates of intervention impact in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic with fewer deaths (e.g. Germany, UK). We have tried to create consistent definitions of all interventions and document details of this in Appendix 8.6. However, invariably there will be differences from country to country in the strength of their intervention — for example, most countries have banned gatherings of more than 2 people when implementing a lockdown, whereas in Sweden the government only banned gatherings of more than 10 people. These differences can skew impacts in countries with very little data. We believe that our uncertainty to some degree can cover these differences, and as more data become available, coefficients should become more reliable. However, despite these strong assumptions, there is sufficient signal in the data to estimate changes in R, (see the sensitivity analysis reported in Appendix 8.4.3) and this signal will stand to increase with time. In our Bayesian hierarchical framework, we robustly quantify the uncertainty in our parameter estimates and posterior predictions. This can be seen in the very wide credible intervals in more recent days, where little or no death data are available to inform the estimates. Furthermore, we predict intervention impact at country-level, but different trends may be in place in different parts of each country. For example, the epidemic in northern Italy was subject to controls earlier than the rest of the country. 5 Data Our model utilizes daily real-time death data from the ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), where we catalogue case data for 11 European countries currently experiencing the epidemic: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The ECDC provides information on confirmed cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19. However, the case data are highly unrepresentative of the incidence of infections due to underreporting as well as systematic and country-specific changes in testing. We, therefore, use only deaths attributable to COVID-19 in our model; we do not use the ECDC case estimates at all. While the observed deaths still have some degree of unreliability, again due to changes in reporting and testing, we believe the data are ofsufficient fidelity to model. For population counts, we use UNPOP age-stratified counts.10 We also catalogue data on the nature and type of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. We looked at the government webpages from each country as well as their official public health division/information webpages to identify the latest advice/laws being issued by the government and public health authorities. We collected the following: School closure ordered: This intervention refers to nationwide extraordinary school closures which in most cases refer to both primary and secondary schools closing (for most countries this also includes the closure of otherforms of higher education or the advice to teach remotely). In the case of Denmark and Sweden, we allowed partial school closures of only secondary schools. The date of the school closure is taken to be the effective date when the schools started to be closed (ifthis was on a Monday, the date used was the one of the previous Saturdays as pupils and students effectively stayed at home from that date onwards). Case-based measures: This intervention comprises strong recommendations or laws to the general public and primary care about self—isolation when showing COVID-19-like symptoms. These also include nationwide testing programs where individuals can be tested and subsequently self—isolated. Our definition is restricted to nationwide government advice to all individuals (e.g. UK) or to all primary care and excludes regional only advice. These do not include containment phase interventions such as isolation if travelling back from an epidemic country such as China. Public events banned: This refers to banning all public events of more than 100 participants such as sports events. Social distancing encouraged: As one of the first interventions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have published advice on social distancing including the recommendation to work from home wherever possible, reducing use ofpublictransport and all other non-essential contact. The dates used are those when social distancing has officially been recommended by the government; the advice may include maintaining a recommended physical distance from others. Lockdown decreed: There are several different scenarios that the media refers to as lockdown. As an overall definition, we consider regulations/legislations regarding strict face-to-face social interaction: including the banning of any non-essential public gatherings, closure of educational and public/cultural institutions, ordering people to stay home apart from exercise and essential tasks. We include special cases where these are not explicitly mentioned on government websites but are enforced by the police (e.g. France). The dates used are the effective dates when these legislations have been implemented. We note that lockdown encompasses other interventions previously implemented. First intervention: As Figure 1 shows, European governments have escalated interventions rapidly, and in some examples (Norway/Denmark) have implemented these interventions all on a single day. Therefore, given the temporal autocorrelation inherent in government intervention, we include a binary covariate for the first intervention, which can be interpreted as a government decision to take major action to control COVID-19. A full list of the timing of these interventions and the sources we have used can be found in Appendix 8.6. 6 Methods Summary A Visual summary of our model is presented in Figure 5 (details in Appendix 8.1 and 8.2). Replication code is available at https://github.com/|mperia|CollegeLondon/covid19model/releases/tag/vl.0 We fit our model to observed deaths according to ECDC data from 11 European countries. The modelled deaths are informed by an infection-to-onset distribution (time from infection to the onset of symptoms), an onset-to-death distribution (time from the onset of symptoms to death), and the population-averaged infection fatality ratio (adjusted for the age structure and contact patterns of each country, see Appendix). Given these distributions and ratios, modelled deaths are a function of the number of infections. The modelled number of infections is informed by the serial interval distribution (the average time from infection of one person to the time at which they infect another) and the time-varying reproduction number. Finally, the time-varying reproduction number is a function of the initial reproduction number before interventions and the effect sizes from interventions. Figure 5: Summary of model components. Following the hierarchy from bottom to top gives us a full framework to see how interventions affect infections, which can result in deaths. We use Bayesian inference to ensure our modelled deaths can reproduce the observed deaths as closely as possible. From bottom to top in Figure 5, there is an implicit lag in time that means the effect of very recent interventions manifest weakly in current deaths (and get stronger as time progresses). To maximise the ability to observe intervention impact on deaths, we fit our model jointly for all 11 European countries, which results in a large data set. Our model jointly estimates the effect sizes of interventions. We have evaluated the effect ofour Bayesian prior distribution choices and evaluate our Bayesian posterior calibration to ensure our results are statistically robust (Appendix 8.4). 7 Acknowledgements Initial research on covariates in Appendix 8.6 was crowdsourced; we thank a number of people across the world for help with this. This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and CommunityJameel. 8 Appendix: Model Specifics, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 8.1 Death model We observe daily deaths Dam for days t E 1, ...,n and countries m E 1, ...,p. These daily deaths are modelled using a positive real-Valued function dam = E(Dam) that represents the expected number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Dam is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with The expected number of deaths (1 in a given country on a given day is a function of the number of infections C occurring in previous days. At the beginning of the epidemic, the observed deaths in a country can be dominated by deaths that result from infection that are not locally acquired. To avoid biasing our model by this, we only include observed deaths from the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths in our model. To mechanistically link ourfunction for deaths to infected cases, we use a previously estimated COVID- 19 infection-fatality-ratio ifr (probability of death given infection)9 together with a distribution oftimes from infection to death TE. The ifr is derived from estimates presented in Verity et al11 which assumed homogeneous attack rates across age-groups. To better match estimates of attack rates by age generated using more detailed information on country and age-specific mixing patterns, we scale these estimates (the unadjusted ifr, referred to here as ifr’) in the following way as in previous work.4 Let Ca be the number of infections generated in age-group a, Na the underlying size of the population in that age group and AR“ 2 Ca/Na the age-group-specific attack rate. The adjusted ifr is then given by: ifra = fififié, where AR50_59 is the predicted attack-rate in the 50-59 year age-group after incorporating country-specific patterns of contact and mixing. This age-group was chosen as the reference as it had the lowest predicted level of underreporting in previous analyses of data from the Chinese epidemic“. We obtained country-specific estimates of attack rate by age, AR“, for the 11 European countries in our analysis from a previous study which incorporates information on contact between individuals of different ages in countries across Europe.12 We then obtained overall ifr estimates for each country adjusting for both demography and age-specific attack rates. Using estimated epidemiological information from previous studies,“'11 we assume TE to be the sum of two independent random times: the incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms or infection- to-onset) distribution and the time between onset of symptoms and death (onset-to-death). The infection-to-onset distribution is Gamma distributed with mean 5.1 days and coefficient of variation 0.86. The onset-to-death distribution is also Gamma distributed with a mean of 18.8 days and a coefficient of va riation 0.45. ifrm is population averaged over the age structure of a given country. The infection-to-death distribution is therefore given by: um ~ ifrm ~ (Gamma(5.1,0.86) + Gamma(18.8,0.45)) Figure 6 shows the infection-to-death distribution and the resulting survival function that integrates to the infection fatality ratio. Figure 6: Left, infection-to-death distribution (mean 23.9 days). Right, survival probability of infected individuals per day given the infection fatality ratio (1%) and the infection-to-death distribution on the left. Using the probability of death distribution, the expected number of deaths dam, on a given day t, for country, m, is given by the following discrete sum: The number of deaths today is the sum of the past infections weighted by their probability of death, where the probability of death depends on the number of days since infection. 8.2 Infection model The true number of infected individuals, C, is modelled using a discrete renewal process. This approach has been used in numerous previous studies13'16 and has a strong theoretical basis in stochastic individual-based counting processes such as Hawkes process and the Bellman-Harris process.”18 The renewal model is related to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, except the renewal is not expressed in differential form. To model the number ofinfections over time we need to specify a serial interval distribution g with density g(T), (the time between when a person gets infected and when they subsequently infect another other people), which we choose to be Gamma distributed: g ~ Gamma (6.50.62). The serial interval distribution is shown below in Figure 7 and is assumed to be the same for all countries. Figure 7: Serial interval distribution g with a mean of 6.5 days. Given the serial interval distribution, the number of infections Eamon a given day t, and country, m, is given by the following discrete convolution function: _ t—1 Cam — Ram ZT=0 Cr,mgt—‘r r where, similarto the probability ofdeath function, the daily serial interval is discretized by fs+0.5 1.5 gs = T=s—0.Sg(T)dT fors = 2,3, and 91 = fT=Og(T)dT. Infections today depend on the number of infections in the previous days, weighted by the discretized serial interval distribution. This weighting is then scaled by the country-specific time-Varying reproduction number, Ram, that models the average number of secondary infections at a given time. The functional form for the time-Varying reproduction number was chosen to be as simple as possible to minimize the impact of strong prior assumptions: we use a piecewise constant function that scales Ram from a baseline prior R0,m and is driven by known major non-pharmaceutical interventions occurring in different countries and times. We included 6 interventions, one of which is constructed from the other 5 interventions, which are timings of school and university closures (k=l), self—isolating if ill (k=2), banning of public events (k=3), any government intervention in place (k=4), implementing a partial or complete lockdown (k=5) and encouraging social distancing and isolation (k=6). We denote the indicator variable for intervention k E 1,2,3,4,5,6 by IkI’m, which is 1 if intervention k is in place in country m at time t and 0 otherwise. The covariate ”any government intervention” (k=4) indicates if any of the other 5 interventions are in effect,i.e.14’t’m equals 1 at time t if any of the interventions k E 1,2,3,4,5 are in effect in country m at time t and equals 0 otherwise. Covariate 4 has the interpretation of indicating the onset of major government intervention. The effect of each intervention is assumed to be multiplicative. Ram is therefore a function ofthe intervention indicators Ik’t’m in place at time t in country m: Ram : R0,m eXp(— 212:1 O(Rheum)- The exponential form was used to ensure positivity of the reproduction number, with R0,m constrained to be positive as it appears outside the exponential. The impact of each intervention on Ram is characterised by a set of parameters 0(1, ...,OL6, with independent prior distributions chosen to be ock ~ Gamma(. 5,1). The impacts ock are shared between all m countries and therefore they are informed by all available data. The prior distribution for R0 was chosen to be R0,m ~ Normal(2.4, IKI) with K ~ Normal(0,0.5), Once again, K is the same among all countries to share information. We assume that seeding of new infections begins 30 days before the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths. From this date, we seed our model with 6 sequential days of infections drawn from cl’m,...,66’m~EXponential(T), where T~Exponential(0.03). These seed infections are inferred in our Bayesian posterior distribution. We estimated parameters jointly for all 11 countries in a single hierarchical model. Fitting was done in the probabilistic programming language Stan,19 using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. We ran 8 chains for 4000 iterations with 2000 iterations of warmup and a thinning factor 4 to obtain 2000 posterior samples. Posterior convergence was assessed using the Rhat statistic and by diagnosing divergent transitions of the HMC sampler. Prior-posterior calibrations were also performed (see below). 8.3 Validation We validate accuracy of point estimates of our model using cross-Validation. In our cross-validation scheme, we leave out 3 days of known death data (non-cumulative) and fit our model. We forecast what the model predicts for these three days. We present the individual forecasts for each day, as well as the average forecast for those three days. The cross-validation results are shown in the Figure 8. Figure 8: Cross-Validation results for 3-day and 3-day aggregatedforecasts Figure 8 provides strong empirical justification for our model specification and mechanism. Our accurate forecast over a three-day time horizon suggests that our fitted estimates for Rt are appropriate and plausible. Along with from point estimates we all evaluate our posterior credible intervals using the Rhat statistic. The Rhat statistic measures whether our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains have converged to the equilibrium distribution (the correct posterior distribution). Figure 9 shows the Rhat statistics for all of our parameters Figure 9: Rhat statistics - values close to 1 indicate MCMC convergence. Figure 9 indicates that our MCMC have converged. In fitting we also ensured that the MCMC sampler experienced no divergent transitions - suggesting non pathological posterior topologies. 8.4 SensitivityAnalysis 8.4.1 Forecasting on log-linear scale to assess signal in the data As we have highlighted throughout in this report, the lag between deaths and infections means that it ta kes time for information to propagate backwa rds from deaths to infections, and ultimately to Rt. A conclusion of this report is the prediction of a slowing of Rt in response to major interventions. To gain intuition that this is data driven and not simply a consequence of highly constrained model assumptions, we show death forecasts on a log-linear scale. On this scale a line which curves below a linear trend is indicative of slowing in the growth of the epidemic. Figure 10 to Figure 12 show these forecasts for Italy, Spain and the UK. They show this slowing down in the daily number of deaths. Our model suggests that Italy, a country that has the highest death toll of COVID-19, will see a slowing in the increase in daily deaths over the coming week compared to the early stages of the epidemic. We investigated the sensitivity of our estimates of starting and final Rt to our assumed serial interval distribution. For this we considered several scenarios, in which we changed the serial interval distribution mean, from a value of 6.5 days, to have values of 5, 6, 7 and 8 days. In Figure 13, we show our estimates of R0, the starting reproduction number before interventions, for each of these scenarios. The relative ordering of the Rt=0 in the countries is consistent in all settings. However, as expected, the scale of Rt=0 is considerably affected by this change — a longer serial interval results in a higher estimated Rt=0. This is because to reach the currently observed size of the epidemics, a longer assumed serial interval is compensated by a higher estimated R0. Additionally, in Figure 14, we show our estimates of Rt at the most recent model time point, again for each ofthese scenarios. The serial interval mean can influence Rt substantially, however, the posterior credible intervals of Rt are broadly overlapping. Figure 13: Initial reproduction number R0 for different serial interval (SI) distributions (means between 5 and 8 days). We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. Figure 14: Rt on 28 March 2020 estimated for all countries, with serial interval (SI) distribution means between 5 and 8 days. We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. 8.4.3 Uninformative prior sensitivity on or We ran our model using implausible uninformative prior distributions on the intervention effects, allowing the effect of an intervention to increase or decrease Rt. To avoid collinearity, we ran 6 separate models, with effects summarized below (compare with the main analysis in Figure 4). In this series of univariate analyses, we find (Figure 15) that all effects on their own serve to decrease Rt. This gives us confidence that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Lockdown has a very large effect, most likely due to the fact that it occurs after other interventions in our dataset. The relatively large effect sizes for the other interventions are most likely due to the coincidence of the interventions in time, such that one intervention is a proxy for a few others. Figure 15: Effects of different interventions when used as the only covariate in the model. 8.4.4 To assess prior assumptions on our piecewise constant functional form for Rt we test using a nonparametric function with a Gaussian process prior distribution. We fit a model with a Gaussian process prior distribution to data from Italy where there is the largest signal in death data. We find that the Gaussian process has a very similartrend to the piecewise constant model and reverts to the mean in regions of no data. The correspondence of a completely nonparametric function and our piecewise constant function suggests a suitable parametric specification of Rt. Nonparametric fitting of Rf using a Gaussian process: 8.4.5 Leave country out analysis Due to the different lengths of each European countries’ epidemic, some countries, such as Italy have much more data than others (such as the UK). To ensure that we are not leveraging too much information from any one country we perform a ”leave one country out” sensitivity analysis, where we rerun the model without a different country each time. Figure 16 and Figure 17 are examples for results for the UK, leaving out Italy and Spain. In general, for all countries, we observed no significant dependence on any one country. Figure 16: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Italy for fitting the model. See the Figure 17: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Spain for fitting the model. See caption of Figure 2 for an explanation of the plots. 8.4.6 Starting reproduction numbers vs theoretical predictions To validate our starting reproduction numbers, we compare our fitted values to those theoretically expected from a simpler model assuming exponential growth rate, and a serial interval distribution mean. We fit a linear model with a Poisson likelihood and log link function and extracting the daily growth rate r. For well-known theoretical results from the renewal equation, given a serial interval distribution g(r) with mean m and standard deviation 5, given a = mZ/S2 and b = m/SZ, and a subsequently R0 = (1 + %) .Figure 18 shows theoretically derived R0 along with our fitted estimates of Rt=0 from our Bayesian hierarchical model. As shown in Figure 18 there is large correspondence between our estimated starting reproduction number and the basic reproduction number implied by the growth rate r. R0 (red) vs R(FO) (black) Figure 18: Our estimated R0 (black) versus theoretically derived Ru(red) from a log-linear regression fit. 8.5 Counterfactual analysis — interventions vs no interventions Figure 19: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for all countries except Italy and Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 Page 28 of 35 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 8.6 Data sources and Timeline of Interventions Figure 1 and Table 3 display the interventions by the 11 countries in our study and the dates these interventions became effective. Table 3: Timeline of Interventions. Country Type Event Date effective School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.20 14/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of gatherings of more than 5 people.21 10/3/2020 Banning all access to public spaces and gatherings Lockdown of more than 5 people. Advice to maintain 1m ordered distance.22 16/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Recommendation to maintain a distance of 1m.22 16/3/2020 Case-based Austria measures Implemented at lockdown.22 16/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.23 14/3/2020 Public events All recreational activities cancelled regardless of banned size.23 12/3/2020 Citizens are required to stay at home except for Lockdown work and essential journeys. Going outdoors only ordered with household members or 1 friend.24 18/3/2020 Public transport recommended only for essential Social distancing journeys, work from home encouraged, all public encouraged places e.g. restaurants closed.23 14/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Belgium measures cough or fever.25 10/3/2020 School closure Secondary schools shut and universities (primary ordered schools also shut on 16th).26 13/3/2020 Public events Bans of events >100 people, closed cultural banned institutions, leisure facilities etc.27 12/3/2020 Lockdown Bans of gatherings of >10 people in public and all ordered public places were shut.27 18/3/2020 Limited use of public transport. All cultural Social distancing institutions shut and recommend keeping encouraged appropriate distance.28 13/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Denmark measures cough or fever.29 12/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.30 14/3/2020 Public events banned Bans of events >100 people.31 13/3/2020 Lockdown Everybody has to stay at home. Need a self- ordered authorisation form to leave home.32 17/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/3/2020 Case-based France measures Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/03/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.33 14/3/2020 Public events No gatherings of >1000 people. Otherwise banned regional restrictions only until lockdown.34 22/3/2020 Lockdown Gatherings of > 2 people banned, 1.5 m ordered distance.35 22/3/2020 Social distancing Avoid social interaction wherever possible encouraged recommended by Merkel.36 12/3/2020 Advice for everyone experiencing symptoms to Case-based contact a health care agency to get tested and Germany measures then self—isolate.37 6/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.38 5/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans all public events.39 9/3/2020 Lockdown The government closes all public places. People ordered have to stay at home except for essential travel.40 11/3/2020 A distance of more than 1m has to be kept and Social distancing any other form of alternative aggregation is to be encouraged excluded.40 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing symptoms Italy measures and quarantine if tested positive.41 9/3/2020 Norwegian Directorate of Health closes all School closure educational institutions. Including childcare ordered facilities and all schools.42 13/3/2020 Public events The Directorate of Health bans all non-necessary banned social contact.42 12/3/2020 Lockdown Only people living together are allowed outside ordered together. Everyone has to keep a 2m distance.43 24/3/2020 Social distancing The Directorate of Health advises against all encouraged travelling and non-necessary social contacts.42 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Norway measures cough or fever symptoms.44 15/3/2020 ordered Nationwide school closures.45 13/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of all public events by lockdown.46 14/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Nationwide lockdown.43 14/3/2020 Social distancing Advice on social distancing and working remotely encouraged from home.47 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Spain measures cough or fever symptoms.47 17/3/2020 School closure ordered Colleges and upper secondary schools shut.48 18/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >500 people.49 12/3/2020 Lockdown ordered No lockdown occurred. NA People even with mild symptoms are told to limit Social distancing social contact, encouragement to work from encouraged home.50 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Sweden measures fever symptoms.51 10/3/2020 School closure ordered No in person teaching until 4th of April.52 14/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >100 people.52 13/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Gatherings of more than 5 people are banned.53 2020-03-20 Advice on keeping distance. All businesses where Social distancing this cannot be realised have been closed in all encouraged states (kantons).54 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Switzerland measures fever symptoms.55 2/3/2020 Nationwide school closure. Childminders, School closure nurseries and sixth forms are told to follow the ordered guidance.56 21/3/2020 Public events banned Implemented with lockdown.57 24/3/2020 Gatherings of more than 2 people not from the Lockdown same household are banned and police ordered enforceable.57 24/3/2020 Social distancing Advice to avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other encouraged public institutions.58 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a UK measures cough or fever symptoms.59 12/3/2020 9 References 1. Li, R. et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (2020) doi:10.1126/science.abb3221. 2. Zhang, J. et al. Patterns of human social contact and contact with animals in Shanghai, China. 5cLRep.9,1—11(2019) 3. Worldometers.info. Hong Kong: coronavirus cases. https://www.wo rldometers.info/co ronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/. 4. Ferguson, N. et al. 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Epidemics 22, 29—35 (2018). 16. Cauchemez, 8., Valleron, A. J., Boelle, P. Y., Flahault, A. & Ferguson, N. M. Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature 452, 750—754 (2008). 17. Bellman, R. & Harris, T. On Age-Dependent Binary Branching Processes. Ann. Math. 55, 280— 295(19521 18. Bellman, R. & Harris, T. E. On the Theory of Age-Dependent Stochastic Branching Processes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 34, 601—604 (1948). 19. Stan Development Team. 2018. The Stan Core Library, Version 2.18.0. http://mc-stan.org. 20. Bundesministerium. Coronavirus (COVID-19): Status quo — Schulen, Hochschulen, Universitaten und Forschungsinstitutionen. https://www.bmbwf.gv.at/Ministerium/Informationspflicht/corona/corona_status.html. 21. Henley, J. Coronavirus: EU states enact tough measures to stem spread. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-several-eu-states-ban-mass-events- after-italian-lockdown (2020). 22. 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The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/coronavirus- spain-takes-over-private-healthcare-amid-more-european-lockdowns (2020). 33. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Germany. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany. 34. BMI. Coronavirus: Fragen und Antworten. Bundesministerium des Innern,fur Bau und Heimat https://web.archive.org/web/20200317073042/https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/faqs/DE/the men/bevoelkerungsschutz/coronavirus/coronavirus-faqs.htmI#doc13738352bodyText7. 35. BBC News. Coronavirus: Germany tightens curbs and bans meetings of more than two. BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51999080 (2020). 36. Bundesregierung. Kanzlerin trifft Regierungschefs der Lander Sozialkontakte vermeiden, Ausbreitung verlangsamen. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/coronavirus/mpk- 1730186(2020) 37. Robert Koch Institut. Antworten auf haufig gestellte Fragen zum Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. 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What is the time lag between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

What do authors consider in this study?

Overview of the 3rd isirv-Antiviral Group Conference – advances in clinical management https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4280814/ SHA: f7bb1f005066cb4930f83cde4cdc1ff3fe411def Authors: Hurt, Aeron C; Hui, David S; Hay, Alan; Hayden, Frederick G Date: 2014-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12293 License: cc-by Abstract: This review highlights the main points which emerged from the presentations and discussions at the 3rd isirv-Antiviral Group Conference - advances in clinical management. The conference covered emerging and potentially pandemic influenza viruses and discussed novel/pre-licensure therapeutics and currently approved antivirals and vaccines for the control of influenza. Current data on approved and novel treatments for non-influenza respiratory viruses such as MERS-CoV, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinoviruses and the challenges of treating immunocompromised patients with respiratory infections was highlighted. Text: Recurrent infections by influenza and other respiratory viruses contribute enormously to the burden of human disease and (emergent) sporadic zoonotic infections, such as by influenza H7N9 and H5N1 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus, pose a constant threat of a new global epidemic. Despite extensive knowledge of the viruses and their interaction with the host, there is little in our armoury of vaccines and therapeutics to combat this perpetual onslaught. The 3rd isirv Antiviral Group conference on Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Infections: Advances in Clinical Management, convened in Tokyo, Japan on 4-6 June 2014, attracted 188 clinicians, public health specialists and medical scientists from 34 countries to present their recent research and discuss various aspects of the impact of respiratory viruses in different patient groups/settings and in different regions of the world. The programme 1 focused on the latest advances in the mitigation and clinical management of influenza and other respiratory virus disease, and the successful use of antivirals (and vaccines) against seasonal and pandemic influenza, particularly in Japan, as well as the development/assessment of novel antiviral agents. This overview highlights some of the main points which emerged from the presentations (both oral and poster) and associated discussion. In recent years, an increasing number of cases of novel animal influenza A viruses infecting humans have been reported. These include multiple avian influenza A virus subtypes, in particular H5N1 and H7N9, and swine-origin H3N2v. Reasons for this increase include both social factors, for example, increased human populations living in close proximity to animals and increased surveillance and diagnostic testing. Risk assessment tools have been developed by many authorities around the world (e.g. the European CDC, US CDC, USAID and WHO) to assist in predicting the likelihood that a particular virus will emerge and its associated impact, as well as prioritising the development of candidate human vaccine viruses. 2 These tools allow continual reassessment as new data become available and provide an objective, transparent process with which to make resource allocation and pandemic planning decisions. In February 2013, China detected the first human cases of H7N9 infection in severely ill patients with pneumonia. 3 As of May 22, 2014 , there have been 446 confirmed H7N9 cases in China resulting in 163 deaths. 4 The cases have occurred mainly during two waves (weeks [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] 2013 and week 40, 2013week 20, 2014) , 4 of which 85% had prior exposure to poultry or contaminated live poultry markets. The median time from poultry exposure to disease onset was 5 days, whereas the median time from illness onset to hospital admission, ARDS development, antiviral therapy and death was 5, 6Á8, 7 and 14 days, respectively. 5 Closure of live poultry markets has markedly reduced the risk of H7N9 infection. Across nine areas in the two most affected provinces in China, modelling analysis estimated that the effectiveness of market closure was 97% (95% CI: 89%, 100%). 6 A retrospective serological study of blood specimens taken in January-May and October-November in 2012 from 1544 subjects who worked in live poultry markets, farms, slaughter houses or kept backyard poultry revealed no evidence of H7N9 infection, 7 indicating widespread population susceptibility and lack of prior circulation of antigenically related viruses. Multiple family clusters have been reported, but no sustained human-to-human transmission, with studies demonstrating a very low detection of virus or specific antibody in close contacts (0Á34% and 0Á2% in the first and second waves, respectively) and healthcare workers of positive cases. 8 In both the first and the second waves, the majority of the patients hospitalised with H7N9 infection were older men (median age, 62 and 58 years, respectively with an overall male/female ratio of 2Á2:1) and the case fatality was similar (32% and 39%, respectively). Pre-existing medical conditions occurred in >60% of these cases. The prominent clinical features on admission were those of a severe influenza syndrome with fever, cough, fatigue and dyspnoea, while the most striking laboratory findings were marked lymphopenia and thrombocytopenia. Elevated cytokine levels have been observed in patients and such excessive cytokine responses may contribute to the clinical severity of H7N9 infection. 9 Originating from reassortment events involving at least three avian influenza viruses, H7N9 viruses with multiple genotypes continue to emerge on a more frequent basis in 2014. Many viruses isolated from humans contain the E627K amino acid substitution in the polymerase PB2 component, associated with mammalian adaptation, and the G186V and Q226L substitutions in the haemagglutinin (HA) that are associated with dual receptor binding to both a2,3 and a2,6-linked sialic acid receptors. 10 All H7N9 viruses from the outbreak to date are antigenically similar to the (original) candidate vaccine strain. Prototype inactivated whole particle H7N9 vaccines have been investigated in macaques and shown to induce good antibody responses that significantly reduced the number of days of virus shedding in experimentally infected animals. Treatment of H7N9-infected patients with neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), including intravenous (IV) peramivir or zanamivir, 11 appears to have been beneficial even when therapy was started late, although emergence of oseltamivir resistance has been associated with poor clinical outcomes. 12 All H7N9 viruses are amantadine-resistant due to the S31N substitution in the M2 ion channel protein, while viruses containing the R292K substitution in neuraminidase (NA), which confers resistance to both oseltamivir and peramivir (>1000-fold rise in IC 50 ) and reduced susceptibility to zanamivir and laninamivir (50-and 25-fold rises in IC 50 , respectively), have been reported in six cases. Two of these patients with severe H7N9 infection requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) also received systemic corticosteroid treatment leading to treatment failure and a poor clinical outcome. 12 The replication and transmission of H7N9 viruses containing the R292K NA mutation have been shown to be comparable to those of wild-type H7N9 viruses in guinea pigs, 13 and in ferrets following both contact and non-contact exposure. However, the wild-type virus did outgrow the R292K-resistant strain in some ferrets over the course of the infection. 14 Interestingly, the R292K variant appeared to be the dominant virus in ferret lung lobes, while in nasal turbinates, the wild-type virus was predominant. Therefore, it appears that the R292K mutation causes less fitness loss in H7N9 virus than in seasonal H3N2 viruses. 13 A new reassortant genotype of H5N1 containing the HA and NA genes from clade 1.1.2 and the internal genes from clade 2.3.2.1 emerged during 2013 and was associated with the highest number of cases (n = 26) and deaths (n = 14) in Cambodia. 15 Globally since 2003, there have been 650 confirmed H5N1 cases and 386 deaths reported in humans, 16 with most infections in the last 2 years being in children. Human-to-human transmission remains extremely rare based on virological and serological data from analysis of close contacts of confirmed cases in Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. 17 A study of household transmission patterns in Indonesia has shown that the overall household attack rate was 18Á3% and the secondary attack rate was 5Á5%, independent of household size. 18 Oseltamivir therapy appears to reduce mortality when administered within 8 days of H5N1 illness onset, although earlier treatment is more effective, highlighting the need for early patient diagnosis. 19 Early initiation of oseltamivir was particularly effective in reducing mortality in H5N1 patients without respiratory failure (odds ratio, 0Á17; P = 0Á04), whereas those requiring ventilatory support at the time of oseltamivir initiation were more likely to die. 20 A study of the risk factors for mortality related to H5N1 identified age, country, per capita government health expenditure and delay from symptom onset to hospitalisation as the key parameters, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis, treatment and supportive care. 21 High-dose systemic corticosteroids (SC) are associated with worse outcomes in H5N1 patients. 22 One human case of avian H5N6 was recently detected in China; the virus was a reassortant that contained seven genes from H5N1 and the NA gene from an H6N6 virus circulating in ducks. 23 China has also reported the detection of three human infections, two fatal, with avian H10N8 viruses that contain the internal genes from H9N2, as does H7N9. 24 Like the H7N9 virus, the H10N8 virus has low pathogenicity in poultry and is therefore difficult to detect in birds. Burden in target populations Pregnant women and infants have an increased risk of complications following influenza infection. Globally, significant numbers of pregnant women died during the 2009-2010 pandemic, but no maternal mortality occurred in Japan. 25 Through education campaigns directed at pregnant women and healthcare professionals, 67% of pregnant women were vaccinated against H1N1pdm09 resulting in an infection rate among pregnant women in Japan of 3Á5% compared to the overall infection rate in the population of 12%. 26 Of those pregnant women who were infected with H1N1pdm09 in Japan, 95% were treated with antivirals, and importantly, 88% of those were treated within 2 days of symptom onset. 25 In Mongolia, a prospective cohort study during 2013-2014 found that influenza-like illness (ILI) was detected in 17Á9% of pregnant women, of whom the majority tested positive for influenza A, with substantially lower influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. 27 During the same period, ILI was detected in 30Á9% of infants <6 months of age, with an even spread of influenza A, influenza B and RSV. 27 The influenza burden in children in a rural Indian community was found to be substantial with 11Á6% of ILI cases being caused by influenza A or B viruses. 28 These findings underscore the importance of maternal immunisation. 29 Transmission patterns Sequence analysis of influenza viruses isolated from students on a Singapore University Campus provided insights into the chain of transmission, showing that 62% of 32 viruses were highly similar, demonstrating that the majority of transmission was occurring on the university campus rather than from infections outside. 30 The effectiveness of surgical masks, hand hygiene and health education investigated in households in Hong Kong and Bangkok detected no significant difference in attack rate in cohorts using one of these interventions. 31 Further analysis of the data enabled some insights into the relative importance of aerosol, large droplet and contact transmission within the households. For influenza A infections, aerosol transmission appeared to be the most common route, whereas contact transmission caused the highest number of influenza B infections. 31 Use and effectiveness Neuraminidase inhibitors are commonly used for the treatment of influenza in Japan, typically following a positive result from a point-of-care (POC) test. During the 2009-2010 pandemic, over 20 million POC test kits were shipped to hospitals and clinics in Japan to enable rapid diagnosis, and 89% of treated cases were administered NAIs within 48 hours of symptom onset. 32 In Japan during 2013, oseltamivir and laninamivir each represented 40% of NAIs used, while zanamivir (15%) and peramivir (5%) use was considerably less. NAI effectiveness has been assessed in numerous observational studies in Japan. Oseltamivir effectiveness is significantly reduced in patients with delayed treatment, and duration of fever and viral shedding is longer in treated patients with influenza B compared to influenza A virus infections. 33, 34 The reduced effectiveness against influenza B viruses was also observed in zanamivir 33, 35 and laninamivir 35 trials. To determine whether NAIs reduced mortality during the 2009-2010 pandemic, data were compiled on 29 234 patients hospitalised with confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. 36 Compared with no treatment, NAI treatment was associated with significantly reduced mortality, with early treatment also showing a reduced risk of mortality compared to late treatment. Although there was no significant clinical effect when comparing late treatment with no treatment in hospitalised patients, there was a significant benefit in treating patients who arrive late into intensive care units. 36 In a household prophylaxis study, inhaled laninamivir given for either 2 or 3 days reduced the illness rate within households to 3Á9% and 3Á7%, respectively, compared to 16Á9% in households given a placebo. 37 A ferret model of oseltamivir prophylaxis has shown that while morbidity was significantly reduced, the prophylaxis regimes did not prevent infection nor significantly reduce virus load. 38 Resistance Although all four NAIs are sialic acid analogues, they have subtle differences in chemical structure and binding properties. Consequently, resistance patterns vary across NAIs. The most commonly detected NA substitution causing NAI resistance in N1-containing influenza viruses is H275Y, which confers resistance to oseltamivir and peramivir, but not to zanamivir and laninamivir. This resistance mutation became fixed in seasonal H1N1 viruses circulating in 2008-2009. 39 A late 2013 cluster of H1N1pdm09 viruses containing the H275Y substitution was detected in 38 (39%) of 97 H1N1pdm09 viruses from community patients not receiving NAIs in Sapporo, Japan, 40 reminiscent of a similar cluster of oseltamivir-resistant H1N1pdm09 viruses in community patients in Australia in 2011. 41, 42 Importantly, both sets of viruses contained permissive NA mutations (V241I and N369K) that have been shown in ferret studies to offset the destabilising and negative effect of the H275Y NA mutation. 43 In hospitalised influenza patients being treated with intravenous zanamivir, next-generation sequencing has been utilised to identify minor resistant virus populations. A total of five NA substitutions were identified in different viruses, including E119K and E119D; however, all apart from E119D were present in such low proportions that they could not be detected by Sanger 'population' sequencing methods. 44 The effects of various mutations in catalytic and framework residues of influenza B NA were investigated using reverse genetics and a range of functional assays. Four substitutions (D198E, I222T, H274Y and N294S) conferred reduced susceptibility to oseltamivir, while three substitutions (E119A, D198Y and R371K) caused highly reduced inhibition by oseltamivir, zanamivir and peramivir. 45 Two of these variants (H274Y, E119A) had in vitro replication fitness comparable to the NAI-susceptible viruses. To date, these substitutions have only been detected on rare occasions in circulating influenza viruses. An intravenous formulation of zanamivir showed both virological and clinical effectiveness without safety concerns in patients hospitalised with influenza in Japan. 46 A range of new adamantane derivatives have good antiviral activity in vitro and in animal models against H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 viruses that contain the S31N M2 ion channel substitution that confers resistance to amantadine. 47 Favipiravir is a novel pyrazinamide molecule that inhibits replication of various RNA viruses, including influenza types A, B and C (including oseltamivir-resistant strains), and has recently been licensed in Japan for the control of novel or reemerging influenza viruses. Its triphosphate metabolite is an RNA polymerase inhibitor which disrupts virus genome replication; synergy with oseltamivir has been demonstrated in pre-clinical models. 48 A phase II study in the US has shown that a twice-daily regimen decreased the titre and time to cessation of virus shedding, and had a significant benefit in reducing clinical symptoms (NCT01068912; www.clinicaltrials.gov). Subsequent phase III studies are currently ongoing (NCT02008344 and NCT02026349). A neutralising monoclonal antibody (MHAA4549A) which binds to the HA stalk of influenza A viruses in both group 1 and group 2 HA subtypes has been effective when given up to 72 hours post-infection in mice and ferrets infected with H5N1. 49 Phase I and IIa trials in humans showed that the antibody was well tolerated, had a mean half-life of 21Á9 days and was effective as therapy at high doses in experimentally infected volunteers (NCT01877785). Upcoming placebo-controlled phase IIb trials will target hospitalised influenza patients requiring oxygen and compare the combination of the monoclonal antibody with oseltamivir to oseltamivir monotherapy (NCT01980966). Other broadly neutralising antibodies against multiple clades of H5N1 have been generated by glycan masking of key HA antigenic residues to direct antibody responses to the more conserved stem region of the HA. 50 FluPep, a novel peptide that prevents virus entry into cells, has been shown in mouse studies to be effective in reducing virus titres in lungs, inflammatory cytokines and mortality. 51 Fludase (DAS-181) is a host-targeted therapeutic agent that removes sialic acid from cellular receptors in the respiratory tract, thus preventing influenza virus binding. Delivered topically, it is effective in animal models of lethal H5N1 and H7N9 infection, including a NAI-resistant R292K H7N9 variant. 52 In a phase 2 RCT, inhaled DAS181 reduced pharyngeal viral replication in uncomplicated influenza but did not reduce nasal virus loads or improve clinical outcomes. 53 Another receptor-targeted approach is the development of multivalent sialic acid-binding proteins; 54 a single administration 7 days pre-infection resulted in the protection of 80-100% of mice from lethal H7N9 challenge. 55 Apart from blocking sialic acid, the compound appears to stimulate the expression of pro-inflammatory mediators, thereby 'preparing' the immune system for subsequent influenza infection. When delivered 24 hours post-infection, protection was, however, only 20-40%. 55 Although drug resistance is considered less likely to occur with host-directed therapies, escape mutants have developed rapidly following exposure to a host-directed vacuolar ATPase-inhibiting drug. 56 Furthermore, following serial passage of different viruses in the presence of bafilomycin A1, two HA mutations were selected (A19T and S210N) which resulted in reduced drug susceptibility and increased virulence in mice. 56 Multiple influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) studies have used the control test negative design approach to estimate IVE during early and late phases of influenza seasons, the 2009 pandemic, and by age or target groups. Typically, IVE estimates range from 40% to 60% each season. 57 Future studies will investigate IVE with respect to the type of influenza vaccine used, whether IVE differs between the start and end of the season and the effect of previous vaccination. In Japan in 2013/14, IVE for influenza A in children aged 1-5 years averaged 72% (95% CI 64-79), dropped to 48% (95% CI 31-61) in children aged 6-12 years and was not apparent against influenza B in any age group (À1%, 95% CI À19 to 14). 58 Influenza vaccine effectiveness is known to be lower in adults over 65 years of age, a group that accounts for >60% of seasonal influenza-related hospitalisations and >90% of influenza-related deaths. In an effort to improve IVE in the elderly, recent RCTs have investigated the use of adjuvants, intradermal injection and higher doses of antigen. While the use of AS03-adjuvanted influenza vaccine was only moderately superior to non-adjuvanted vaccine in the elderly, 59 the use of a high-dose vaccine containing four times the standard level of HA (60 lg per virus) did result in improved effectiveness compared to the standard dose vaccine. 60 For vaccine manufacturers, generating high-growth reassortants of certain circulating viruses can be challenging. A recent study used random mutagenesis of PR8 and selection of high-growth clones in MDCK and Vero cells to derive a high-growth version of PR8. 61 Reassortment of the highgrowth PR8 virus with the HA/NA of either H5N1, H7N9 or seasonal influenza viruses showed that yields significantly exceeded equivalent reassortants that contained the internal genes of the 'normal' PR8 virus. 61 As of July 2014, the number of confirmed cases of MERS-CoV has exceeded 830, with at least 288 associated deaths. 62 The majority of cases have involved patients with comorbidities (76%) and are predominately males (63%) with a median age of 47. 63, 64 Fewer than 25% of patients have reported contact with animals including dromedary camels, which have been shown to be one likely animal reservoir based on sero-positivity and detection of MERS-CoV. 65 More than 25% of the infections have been in healthcare workers, and the large number of nosocomial infections is likely due to inadequate infection control in hospitals plus enhanced surveillance that has detected a substantial number of mild or asymptomatic infections. 63 Outside hospital, the burden of disease is likely to be larger than has been reported. 66 Serological analysis of several UK patients found a rapid rise in antibodies from day 10, and that titres were maintained for at least 300 days post-infection. Anti-S (spike glycoprotein) antibodies are responsible for virus neutralisation. Importantly for serological analyses, patients who experience only mild disease may mount only a modest serological response. 67 Sequential samples from three cases involved in a chain of transmission were extensively analysed using next-generation sequencing. 68 Various minority variants were detected, of which some were transient while others were transmitted, and there was evidence of variation in frequency of some variants in different body compartments. Various therapeutic options have been investigated for the treatment of MERS-CoV, but no therapy of proven value currently exists. The use of SC was associated with adverse outcome in SARS 69 and is not recommended for MERS-CoV. Many agents have shown inhibitory effects against MERS-CoV in cell culture including interferon +/À ribavirin, cyclosporine A, mycophenolic acid, chloroquine and lopinavir. 70 Interferons, lopinavir, mycophenolate, possibly alisporivir and combinations are reasonable choices for testing in controlled clinical trials. Exploratory post hoc metaanalysis of studies related to SARS and severe influenza has shown a significant reduction in mortality following convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no therapy (odds ratio 0Á25; 95% CI 0Á14-0Á45). 71 Thus, the early use of virus-specific neutralising antibodies in the form of convalescent plasma and monoclonal or polyclonal neutralising antibodies for treatment of MERS-CoV has the highest likelihood of clinical benefit. 64 Modalities with risks likely to exceed benefits include SC, ribavirin monotherapy and IVIG. 72 Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) Respiratory syncytial virus disproportionately impacts children in low-income countries. 73 Almost all children will have been infected with RSV by their 2nd birthday, and it is the number one cause of hospitalisation of infants in the US, causing 10 times more infant deaths than influenza. 74 In addition, RSV infects 3-10% of adults annually and accounts for 5-15% of community acquired pneumonia (CAP) and 9-10% of hospitalisations, 75 a burden of disease that approaches that caused by influenza. In a study, conducted in Hong Kong, of 607 hospitalised adults with RSV, 40% had pneumonia and 70% required supplementary oxygen; mortality rates and duration of hospital stay were similar to those observed for influenza patients. 75 Approximately, 15% of hospitalised RSV patients had bacterial superinfections. Although corticosteroids were used to treat 38% of patients, treatment had no benefit on clinical outcome, and instead increased bacterial secondary infections and caused a longer duration of illness. 75 RSV replication appears prolonged in patients with comorbidities and LRT complications. Palivizumab prophylaxis of premature infants of <6 months of age has been shown to reduce hospitalisation due to RSV by 55%. 76 Preventing RSV during infancy has been associated with reduction of wheezing later in life. 77 Trials of other monoclonal antibodies have typically shown that they do not achieve superiority compared to palivizumab and therefore do achieve licensure. Furthermore, treatment with neutralising monoclonal antibodies does not appear to reduce virus load or disease severity in hospitalised infants. 78 Alternative options for RSV therapy to be assessed in future clinical trials include inhaled nanobodies, aerosolised peptides, nucleoside analogues and RNA-interference molecules. Human rhinoviruses (HRV) usually cause mild acute respiratory infections, but on occasions can also cause more severe respiratory infections, including exacerbations of asthma and COPD. Of 115 Japanese children with asthma, a respiratory virus was detected in 86%, of which HRV (n = 36) or RSV (n = 47) were most common. 79 Ex vivo bronchial epithelial cells from people with asthma are more susceptible to HRV infection, due to deficient induction of IFN-b and IFN-lambda. In a study of 147 asthmatics on inhaled corticosteroid therapy, with a history of virusassociated exacerbations, patients were randomised to 14-day treatment with inhaled IFN-b or placebo within 24 hours of developing cold symptoms. Patients who received IFN-b had enhanced morning peak expiratory flow recovery, reduced need for additional treatment and boosted innate immunity as assessed by blood and sputum biomarkers. In an exploratory analysis of a subset of more difficult-to-treat asthma (n = 27 IFN-b; n = 31 placebo), worsening of symptoms increased significantly in the placebo group, but was prevented by IFN-b (P = 0Á004). 80 A picornavirus-specific antiviral, vapendavir, was found to reduce symptom scores, lower bronchodilator puffer use and reduce viral load in asthma patients with an URTI due to HRV. 81 Diagnostics Point-of-care tests that can deliver a result in 15 minutes have been available in many countries for the last decade, but while having good specificity, the sensitivity has typically been poor, ranging from 10% to 80% compared to PCR or culture. Their use in emergency departments of hospitals can result in reduced unnecessary antibiotic use and an increased likelihood of discharge. Newer immunofluorescence-based POC tests with improved sensitivity are being developed. In addition, the Quidel Sofia POC test may be linked via the internet such that results can be reported in real-time to central databases. Other POC tests are using photographic silver amplification immunochromatography technology to increase sensitivity. 82 PCR remains the gold standard for virus diagnostics with an ability to be rapid, sensitive, specific and to identify a wide range of pathogens via different assays. The ability to multiplex multiple pathogen targets allows costs to be reduced in a diagnostic setting. New closed-system technologies which involve only minimal hands-on time (a few minutes) and that conduct both automated nucleic acid extraction and PCR for multiple pathogens are now available, but are currently limited for clinical diagnostic purposes due to low-throughput capabilities. 83 Next-generation sequencing technologies and PCR-based analyses with increasing sensitivity both offer considerable scope in diagnosis, although our current understanding of the clinical impact of pathogens at low levels or the presence of variants as minor virus populations is limited. Providing low-cost, sensitive assays for diagnosing respiratory virus infections in low/middle-income countries is challenging, but has the potential to improve treatment and avoid unnecessary antibiotic use in these regions. Repurposed drugs for respiratory viral infections Nitazoxanide (NTX) is an antiparasitic agent approved for Giardia and Cryptosporidium infections that also inhibits replication in vitro of influenza and other respiratory viruses. 84 Treatment with NTX 600 mg twice daily for 5 days was associated with a reduction in the duration of symptoms in participants with acute uncomplicated influenza. 85 In a subset analysis of 238 patients with no confirmed virus infection, treatment with NTX 600 mg also led to a shorter time to alleviation of symptoms in comparison to placebo (88Á4 versus 105Á7 hours, P = 0Á02). 86 Systemic corticosteroids for respiratory virus infections A review of prospective observational studies has shown that SC increased the risks of mortality and morbidity (e.g. secondary infections, hospital-acquired pneumonia) in severe infection due to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 especially with delayed antiviral therapy. 87 During SARS infections, a higher risk of avascular necrosis and prolonged virus shedding were observed in patients who had received highdose SC therapy. 88 It is therefore important to avoid the use of high-dose SC in severe respiratory viral infections outside the context of clinical trials. Larger trials are needed to resolve the uncertainty regarding the effect of early SC therapy in ARDS. Low-dose SC is indicated for management of refractory septic shock, 89 and a short course of SC is indicated for acute exacerbations of obstructive airway diseases (asthma, COPD) 90 Current evidence does not support a clinically relevant effect of systemic or inhaled glucocorticoids on admission or length of hospitalisation for acute viral bronchiolitis in infants and young children. 91 Respiratory syncytial virus, influenza viruses, parainfluenza (PIV) viruses and adenoviruses (AdVs) cause the most serious disease in immunocompromised hosts, but other respiratory viruses are becoming increasingly appreciated as a cause of both upper and lower respiratory tract disease. The potential for these viruses to cause lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) after transplantation varies. Human metapneumovirus infections have similar outcomes to RSV infection in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients, including potentially severe and fatal pneumonia. HRV and coronavirus infections are very frequent in transplant recipients, but severe lower respiratory tract disease is uncommon. In a prospective study of 112 lung transplant recipients, the virus infection rates upon screening, routine and emergency visits were 14%, 15% and 34%, respectively. Picornaviruses were identified most frequently in nasopharyngeal (85/140; 61%) and BAL specimens (20/34; 59%). Asymptomatic virus carriage, mainly of picornaviruses, was found at 10% of screening visits. Infections were associated with transient lung function loss and high calcineurin inhibitor blood levels. The hospitalisation rate was 50% for influenza and PIV and 16Á9% for other viruses. Acute rejection was not associated with virus infection. 92 The risk factors for severe LRTI among transplant recipients include early onset post-transplant (<3 m), steroid boluses, young children (<1 year), chronic GVHD, lymphopenia/lymphodepletion and allogeneic HSCT patients. 92 Influenza Immunocompromised patients with influenza exhibit more complications, longer virus shedding and more antiviral resistance, while often demonstrating milder clinical symptoms and signs on initial clinical assessment. 93 Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 viruses have the potential for rapid emergence of oseltamivir resistance and causing severe morbidity, particularly in immunocompromised patients with lymphopenia and delayed antiviral therapy. 94 Influenza viraemia may serve as a marker for overall poor outcome with increased risk of progression to LRTI, hypoxaemia, respiratory failure and death. Influenza RNA in blood (viraemia) was detected in nine of 79 (11Á4%) HSCT recipients with influenza. Among patients with LRTI, viraemia was associated with increased hazards of overall as well as influenzaassociated death (hazard ratio 3Á5, 1Á1-12). 95 In 143 HSCT recipients with documented seasonal influenza infection, treatment with high-dose corticosteroids was associated with a trend towards prolonged virus shedding [(OR), 3Á3; 95% CI 1Á0-11; P = 0Á05], whereas antiviral therapy initiated to treat upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) was associated with fewer cases of LRTI (OR, 0Á04; 95% CI, 0-0Á2; P < 0Á01) and fewer hypoxaemia episodes (OR, 0Á3; 95% CI, 0Á1-0Á9; P = 0Á03). 96 In view of the risks of prolonged replication and drug resistance emergence, 97 a longer duration and a higher NAI dose may be beneficial. Early therapy was consistently demonstrated to have improved outcomes. [98] [99] [100] [101] Other treatment options under study are the use of triple combination therapy with amantadine, oseltamivir and ribavirin, 102 or intravenous peramivir 103 or zanamivir. 104 Therapy of influenza in lung transplant recipients is associated with a reduced risk of developing bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome. 105 Parainfluenza DAS181 is inhibitory for PIV and influenza viruses, including those resistant to the amantadine and NAIs 106 and may be effective in treating immunocompromised patients with severe PIV lung disease. 107 In a study of four severely immunocompromised children with PIV disease treatment with DAS181 for 5-10 days, by dry powder inhalation or nebulisation, was well tolerated. Transient increase in serum alkaline phosphatase, liver function and coagulation tests were observed, but nasal wash virus loads were reduced in all patients within 1 week with improved clinical features. 108 In a RCT of lung transplant recipients with RSV infection, the incidence of new or progressive bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome at day 90 was significantly reduced in 16 patients who received a small interfering RNA against the RSV Ngene (ALN-RSV01) compared with placebo (n = 8) (6Á3% versus 50%, P = 0Á027). 109 In a larger follow-up multicentre phase IIb study, treatment with ALN-RSV01 showed a greater than eightfold reduced risk in developing bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome at day 180. 110 Adenovirus is a serious, often fatal infection in immunocompromised patients, especially in HSCT recipients. The control of AdV is mostly T-cell mediated, and therefore, patients who have received T-cell suppressive regimens are at an increased risk for AdV infection. The annual incidence of AdV infections in HSCT recipients ranges from 5% to 50%, and is increasing, likely due to increased use of T-celldepleted allografts and cord blood as source. The mortality rate is up to 80%. 111 Brincidofovir (BCV; formerly CMX-001) is an orally bioavailable lipid-conjugate of cidofovir (CDV) that provides high intracellular concentrations of CDV diphosphate with a long intracellular half-life (up to 4-6Á5 days). BCV is 65-fold more potent against AdV than CDV in vitro with a low risk of myeloidor nephrotoxicity, but gastrointestinal side effects are more common. 112 In a retrospective study of 13 immunocompromised patients given BCV for AdV disease after failing or intolerance to i.v. cidofovire nine patients (69Á2%) demonstrated a virological response (VR), which was defined as a 99% drop from baseline or undetectable AdV DNA in serum by week 8. Patients with VR had longer survival than those without VR (median 196 days versus 54Á5 days; P = 0Á04). 113

How many deaths were associated with MERS-CoV as of July 2014?

SARS to novel coronavirus – old lessons and new lessons https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7026896/ SHA: 5d254ed178c092d3639ce70ae9653593acc471f9 Authors: McCloskey, Brian; Heymann, David L. Date: 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820000254 License: cc-by Abstract: The response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China suggests that many of the lessons from the 2003 SARS epidemic have been implemented and the response improved as a consequence. Nevertheless some questions remain and not all lessons have been successful. The national and international response demonstrates the complex link between public health, science and politics when an outbreak threatens to impact on global economies and reputations. The unprecedented measures implemented in China are a bold attempt to control the outbreak – we need to understand their effectiveness to balance costs and benefits for similar events in the future. Text: On 29 December 2019 clinicians in a hospital in Wuhan City, China noticed a clustering of cases of unusual pneumonia (with the first case identified at that time on 12 December) with an apparent link to a market that sells live fish, poultry and animals to the public. This event was reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) on 31 December [1]. Within 4 weeks, by 26 January 2020, the causative organism had been identified as a novel coronavirus, the genome of the virus had been sequenced and published, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction tests had been developed, the WHO R&D Blueprint had been activated to accelerate diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccine development and a candidate vaccine was ready for initial laboratory testing. Currently Chinese health authorities are building a 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan in 10 days. By 26 January also, almost 50 million people in Wuhan and neighbouring cities had effectively been placed in quarantine while the WHO had determined that the event should not yet be declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) [2] and had recommended no specific travel restrictions. The WHO have emphasised the importance of exit screening at ports in countries showing transmission of the novel coronavirus and have provided guidance for countries implementing entry screening at airports while acknowledging that evidence for the effectiveness of entry screening is equivocal. This response is one of the swiftest, coordinated global responses to an emerging infectious disease the world has seen in modern times, but is it the appropriate response, will it be effective and is it sustainable? According to the situation report published by the WHO on 28 January 2020 [3], a total of 2798 confirmed 2019-nCoV cases have been reported globally; of these, 2761 cases were from China, including Hong Kong (8 cases), Macau (5) and Taipei (4). Thirty-seven confirmed cases have been reported outside of China in eleven countries in Europe, North America, Australia and Asia; of these 37 exported cases, 36 had a travel history from China or an epidemiological link to a case from China. Of the confirmed cases in China, 461 have been reported as severely ill, with 80 deaths to date. This outbreak and the response to it illustrate some key issues about how global preparedness and response capacity for outbreaks have evolved over almost two decades since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2002/3 and what lessons have, or have not, been learned. It also raises questions about the impact these lessons have had on the way agencies and governments respond to these events and about the role of the WHO and the International Health Regulations (IHR). One of the critical lessons from the SARS experience was the absolute necessity to be able to coordinate the international resources that are available in an outbreak and to get them focussed on identifying priorities and solving problems. The WHO established the means to do this for SARS and it has since been further developed and integrated into global preparedness, especially after the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Organisations such as the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), the Global Research Collaboration For Infectious Disease Preparedness (GloPID-R) and the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) have been supported by the WHO Research Blueprint and its Global Coordinating Mechanism to provide a forum where those with the expertise and capacity to contribute to managing new threats can come together both between and during outbreaks to develop innovative solutions to emerging problems. This global coordination has been active in the novel coronavirus outbreak. WHO's response system includes three virtual groups based on those developed for SARS to collate real time information to inform real time guidelines, and a first candidate vaccine is ready for laboratory testing within 4 weeks of the virus being identified. Another key factor in successfully preventing and managing emerging threats is the rapid and transparent sharing of information between countries and agencies. There was extensive criticism of China for its perceived failure to share information about the emerging SARS infection early enough in the outbreak to allow countries to prepare and respond. There were similar concerns about information sharing as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) emerged and evolved in the Middle East in 2012, particularly in Saudi Arabia, and about the emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014. On this occasion information sharing seems to have been rapid and effective (while recognising that the information available in the early stages of an outbreak is always less than the global community would like). The WHO was notified of the original clustering within days and the full genomic sequence of the new virus was published less than 2 weeks after the cluster was first detected. The WHO has expressed its satisfaction with the actions of the Chinese authorities in sharing information with the WHO. Working with journalists and the media to help them understand the science and epidemiology, particularly in a fast moving event, will improve risk communication to the public and reduce inappropriate concerns and panic. While reporting of this outbreak shows signs of the efforts of epidemiologists, infectious disease experts, national and international public health agencies and others engaging with journalists, there are also signs that this is not yet achieving it's goal. For example, the public perception is that the increase in case numbers reported daily by the Chinese authorities represents a daily escalation in the epidemic while the reality is that these numbers are also the result of active, aggressive, case finding in China and some of these cases are 'old' cases newly recognised as being due to the novel coronavirus. Similarly the virus is usually described by the media as 'deadly' and although this is true in the sense that it has caused deaths, the nuances of uncertain case fatality rates in the early stages of an outbreak are not being communicated. The current estimated case fatality rate seems to be around 3% which is significant but not comparable to the 10% rate for SARS or 34% reported for MERS. These misperceptions are still driving public anxiety. To supplement formal reporting mechanisms between countries and with WHO (including the IHR), the use of informal mechanisms such as media and social media reports was advocated in the light of the SARS experience. There are now globally several systems that provide collated information from informal reporting including networks of experts and scanning of media and social media. These contribute to, and amplify, epidemic intelligence and are being integrated with national and international surveillance systems. The value, and the challenges, of this additional source of information has been evident in the current outbreak. The value comes from ensuring that early indications of cases beyond the initial outbreak city have been detected and can supplement the global risk assessment and monitoring of the evolution of the outbreak. The challenges lie in the volume and diversity of the information available and the relative lack of verification mechanisms, such that one of these systems (ProMed) has commented that it was becoming increasingly difficult to assimilate the information being supplied [4] and to make meaningful interpretations. Early in the outbreak it was reported that health workers had not been infected. This was reassuring because it is health workers who many times, and inadvertently, amplify transmission. Failure to wash hands between patients, for example, can result not only in autoinfection, but also in infection of patients hospitalised for other causes when they provide care. Autoinfection is not only a risk for the health worker, but also for their families and the communities in which they live, depending on the transmissibility and means of transmission. More recently infection, and at least one death, in health workers has been confirmed. Although not unexpected this does add to the epidemiological risk. A characteristic of the SARS outbreak was the variability of transmissibility between cases and the occurrence of 'superspreading events' where a case infected significantly more contacts than the average. This was also seen with MERS in the outbreak in the Republic of Korea (RoK). In this current novel coronavirus outbreak, such superspreading events have not been documented but the epidemiology is still not clear. Confirming whether or not this is happening must be an urgent task for the Chinese investigation. Modellers have suggested reproductive rates (R 0 ) of 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0) [5] and 2.6 (1.5-3.5) [6] ; R 0 for SARS was estimated at around 3 in the absence of control measures [7] . The economic impact of major outbreaks can be substantial for the affected country. This was seen clearly in SARS, MERS in RoK and Ebola in West Africa. One analyst estimates that the current coronavirus outbreak's likely impact will range from a 0.8% cut to real GDP if the epidemic is controlled within 3 months, to a 1.9% cost to GDP if the epidemic lasts 9 months [8] . This may increase substantially in the light of the extended restrictions on movement, and therefore trade and commerce, within China. The emergence of a significant respiratory illness linked to a novel coronavirus represents a test of the global capacity to detect and mange emerging disease threats. Its emergence in China adds an additional dimension in the light of previous experience with SARS. The timing of the outbreak immediately before the Chinese Lunar New Year with its attendant population movements adds extra risk and urgency to the response. The rapid sharing of information in this outbreak and the speed of the coordinated response both in the country and internationally suggest that lessons have been learned from SARS that improve global capacity. The international networks and forums that now exist have facilitated the bringing together of expertise from around the world to focus research and development efforts and maximise the impact. At this early stage in the outbreak information remains incomplete and key clinical and epidemiological questions have not yet been answered, but the deficit seems to be due more to the constraints of investigating an emerging disease than to any unwillingness to engage and share information with partners. There are some indications of areas where further improvement is necessary. The global media response to the unfolding events has been relatively balanced and informed but the nuances of the evolving situation have not been critically examined in partnership with the media and as a result the public perception of the risk may be exaggeratedalthough it of course remains possible that the outbreak will develop in a way that matches up to the perceived risk. The lack of appreciation of the uncertainties in determining a meaningful case fatality rate and the significance of ascertainment bias at the beginning of an outbreak, along with the impact of aggressive case finding on case numbers, are examples of where understanding could be improved. This is always a challenging process when balancing the resources focussed on analysing the situation on the ground with resources directed at interpreting the information for journalists but in SARS, the R 0 was seen to decrease in response to information reaching the public and the public then adopting risk reduction actions [6] ; so accurate public risk communication is critical to success. It would be helpful to find a forum where this can be explored with the media community after the event. The increase in access to early information from diverse sources including media and social media adds an important dimension to identifying and tracking new events globally and is a key part of the overall epidemic intelligence system. However, it is also a potential source of disinformation. When, as has been seen in this outbreak, the volume of information coming in exceeds any capacity to collate and analyse it and to attempt to cross-reference and verify separate items, there is a risk that the information fuels speculation and media and public concern. Again there is a fine balance between information that encourages appropriate risk avoidance actions and information that encourages inappropriate actions; however the public health is usually better served by more information rather than less. The role of a declaration of a PHEIC in managing a serious outbreak has been questioned in the light of Ebola in West Africa and in the Democratic Republic of Congo [9] and has been challenged again with this outbreak. The binary nature of a PHEIC declaration (either an event is a PHEIC or it isn'tthere are no intermediate options) and the specificity of the three defined criteria for a PHEIC have caused difficulty for Emergency Committees in considering whether a given event should be a PHEIC. The lack of a clear understanding of what a PHEIC declaration is meant to achieve adds to the Emergency Committee's difficulties, as does the relative paucity of clinical and epidemiological answers at this stage of the investigation. In this instance the Emergency Committee were divided in coming to a conclusion but decided on balance that the current situation, although an emergency, should not as yet be declared a PHEIC [2]. As with Ebola in the DRC, there has been criticism of the WHO for this decision but, as with Ebola, it is not immediately clear what would be different in the response if a PHEIC was declared. The WHO is working on improving the way in which Emergency Committees develop their advice for the Director General but, as recommended by this Emergency Committee and the post-Ebola IHR Review Committee in 2015, the development of an intermediate alert alongside WHO's risk assessment process may be helpful. A key function of a PHEIC declaration is that it is the (only) gateway to the WHO Temporary Recommendations on possible travel and trade restrictions to limit international spread of a disease. In this case several countries globally had already implemented entry screening at airports and China had begun closing down international travel from Wuhan before the Emergency Committee had finished their deliberations. While the WHO would not, and could not, interfere with the sovereign decisions of member states, the lack of influence on travel and trade decisions could prove problematic. Alongside the speed of the response in this outbreak, we have seen dramatic changes in the scale of the response. The imposition of very extensive quarantine measures on millions of people as an attempt to break the transmission of the virus is unprecedented. We do not know whether they will be effective; indeed we do not know how we will determine if they have been effectivewhat end point can we measure that will provide an answer to that question? If recent suggestions that people infected with this coronavirus may be infectious while incubating or asymptomatic, and the reports that up to 5 m people left Wuhan before the travel restrictions were imposed, are confirmed, the efficacy of these control measures will be more challenged. Given the likely impact on at least the Chinese economy and probably the global economy, it will be important to understand the role and the effectiveness of public health measures on this scale for the future. However, the imposition of these dramatic measures does also raise a wider question: if there is an impact from these measures, what other countries would (or could) implement such measures? Would other countries accept the self-imposed economic damage that China has accepted to try and contain this outbreak? Is it reasonable to consider that national governments would close down public transport into and out of London, New York or Paris in the week before Christmas even if it were shown to be an effective control measure? These decisions and questions cross the interface between public health, science and politics. The response to this outbreak in China was inevitably influenced by the historical reaction to the country's response to SARS and the world's suspicion of China's lack of cooperation at that time. The current response is therefore framed within a context of not wanting to be seen to be behaving in the same way with this event. This may indicate another impact of the SARS (and MERS and Ebola) experience on the response to subsequent outbreaksa tendency to look at worst case scenarios and respond accordingly and a fear of 'getting it wrong'. This can deter leaders at all levels, from outbreak teams to national governments, from making judgements when all the information they would like is not available in case those judgments turn out to be wrong when the full information becomes available. In emergency response it is generally better to over-react and then scale back if necessary rather than under-react and then act too late. Response should be on a 'no regrets' basismake the best decisions possible on the basis of the best information and science available at the time but do not judge or criticise if later information suggests a different course of action. The early response must recognise what is known and what is not known and look at what of the unknowns can reasonably be estimated by reference to previous outbreaks, similar pathogens, early reporting and modelling, etc. The risk assessment and response can then be modified and refined as information on the unknowns evolves. Key to that approach, however, is confidence that decisions will not be criticised based on information that was not available at the time. It is also important to be ready to change decisions when the available information changessomething that both scientists and politicians can find difficult. In that context, China should not be judged for implementing what might appear to be extreme measures but China should also be prepared to discontinue the measures quickly if evidence suggests they are not the best way to solve the problem. By closing airports the international spread from Wuhan may be decreased, but success will depend on how effective the measures really are at stopping people moving out of the affected area as well as on the behaviour of the virus. As always, only time will tellbut time is scarce.

What are some challenges associated with using media and social media to capture information about an emerging epidemic?

Improved Pharmacological and Structural Properties of HIV Fusion Inhibitor AP3 over Enfuvirtide: Highlighting Advantages of Artificial Peptide Strategy https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4541410/ SHA: f2fcc16391f946c99717b63ec9a24e5384aac381 Authors: Zhu, Xiaojie; Zhu, Yun; Ye, Sheng; Wang, Qian; Xu, Wei; Su, Shan; Sun, Zhiwu; Yu, Fei; Liu, Qi; Wang, Chao; Zhang, Tianhong; Zhang, Zhenqing; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Xu, Jianqing; Du, Lanying; Liu, Keliang; Lu, Lu; Zhang, Rongguang; Jiang, Shibo Date: 2015-08-19 DOI: 10.1038/srep13028 License: cc-by Abstract: Enfuvirtide (T20), is the first HIV fusion inhibitor approved for treatment of HIV/AIDS patients who fail to respond to the current antiretroviral drugs. However, its clinical application is limited because of short half-life, drug resistance and cross-reactivity with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-infected patients. Using an artificial peptide strategy, we designed a peptide with non-native protein sequence, AP3, which exhibited potent antiviral activity against a broad spectrum of HIV-1 strains, including those resistant to T20, and had remarkably longer in vivo half-life than T20. While the preexisting antibodies in HIV-infected patients significantly suppressed T20’s antiviral activity, these antibodies neither recognized AP3, nor attenuated its anti-HIV-1 activity. Structurally different from T20, AP3 could fold into single-helix and interact with gp41 NHR. The two residues, Met and Thr, at the N-terminus of AP3 form a hook-like structure to stabilize interaction between AP3 and NHR helices. Therefore, AP3 has potential for further development as a new HIV fusion inhibitor with improved antiviral efficacy, resistance profile and pharmacological properties over enfuvirtide. Meanwhile, this study highlighted the advantages of artificially designed peptides, and confirmed that this strategy could be used in developing artificial peptide-based viral fusion inhibitors against HIV and other enveloped viruses. Text: The sequences of gp41 NHR-or CHR-derived peptides. The residues corresponding to the NHR pocket region are marked in red. The residues for the PBD are marked in blue, and the MT-hook residues adjacent to the N terminus of PBD are marked in green. 5HRu peptide consists of 5 copies of artificial sequence template (AEELAKK) underlined. The mutant residues in PBD of AP2 and AP3 were highlighted in pink. (b) The inhibitory activity of AP1, AP2, AP3 and T20 on infection by HIV-1 IIIB (subtype B, X4) in MT-2 cells (left panel) by HIV-1 Bal (subtype B, R5) in M7 cells (right panel). Each sample was tested in triplicate and the experiment was repeated twice. The data are presented as means ± SD. Scientific RepoRts | 5:13028 | DOi: 10 .1038/srep13028 To address these obstacles, many efforts have been made to optimize T20 and gp41 CHR-derived peptides. Some of these peptides have better inhibitory activities against T20-resistant strains and/or longer half-life than T20. However, they still have the problem to cross-react with the preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV-infected patients because they contain some native CHR sequences. Based on the universal artificial peptide template of 5HRu, we previously designed the artificial peptides of AP1 (PBD-m4HR) and AP2 (PBDtrp-m4HR), and have made preliminary research on their inhibitory activity against HIV-1 Env-mediated cell-cell fusion 16 . In the present study, we designed a new artificial peptide, AP3 (Fig. 1a) , aiming to apply the "M-T hook" structure to stabilize the interaction of the artificial peptide with the hydrophobic pocket on the gp41 NHR trimer 17, 18 . After comprehensively studying its antiviral activity, biochemical property, crystal structure, functional mechanism, in vivo half-life and, for the first time, the effect of preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV-infected patients, we found that the newly designed artificial peptide, AP3, exhibited improved antiviral activity, drug resistance profile and pharmacological properties over T20. Particularly, the preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV-infected patients did not suppress, but enhanced the anti-HIV-1 activity of AP3. These results suggest that AP3 has potential for development as a new anti-HIV drug and confirm that this strategy can be used for designing artificial antiviral peptides against other enveloped viruses, such as SARS-CoV 19 , MERS-CoV 20 , and paramyxovirus 21 . AP3 inhibited HIV-1 infection with higher potency than T20. Our previously designed artificial peptides AP1 and AP2 could inhibit HIV-1 Env-mediated cell-cell membrane fusion 16 . He and colleagues reported that adding two amino acids of Met and Thr to the N-terminus of a CHR-peptide could enhance their anti-HIV-1 activity 17, 18 . Here we designed a new artificial peptide, AP3, by adding Met and Thr to the N-terminus of AP2 (Fig. 1a) . We then compared AP3 with AP1, AP2 and T20 for their anti-HIV-1 activity against divergent HIV-1 strains, including the laboratory-adapted viruses, IIIB (subtype B, X4) and Bal (subtype B, R5), and a series of primary HIV-1 isolates, as well as the T20-resistant strains. As shown in Fig. 1b , AP3 exhibited higher inhibitory activities on infection by HIV-1 IIIB and HIV-1 Bal strains (IC 50 : 3.06 and 15.09 nM, respectively) than AP1 (IC 50 : 86.25 and 396.14 nM, respectively), AP2 (IC 50 : 23.05 and 49.95 nM, respectively), and T20 (IC 50 : 13.63 and 30.21 nM, respectively). The inhibitory activity of AP3 on infection by divergent primary HIV-1 isolates with distinct genotypes (subtypes A -E and group O) and phenotypes (R5 and X4) was also higher than that of AP2 and T20 (Table 1) . While T20 was not effective against T20-resistant HIV-1 strains at the concentration as high as 2,000 nM, AP3 could effectively inhibit infection of these strains with IC 50 in the range of 13 ~ 90 nM, which was about 2-to 4-fold more effective than AP2 (Table 1 ). These results indicate that the artificial peptide AP3 has remarkably improved anti-HIV-1 activity against a broad spectrum of HIV-1 strains, including T20resistant variants, over T20 and the artificial peptides AP1 and AP2. The preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients neither recognized AP3, nor attenuated its anti-HIV-1 activity. Previous studies have shown that the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients, including those cross-reacting with T20 and those specific for the binding sites of T20 in gp120 (e.g., the C1 and V3 loop regions) and gp41 (e.g., the NHR domain), could significantly block the fusion inhibitory activity of T20 14, 15 . Here we investigated the influence of preexisting antibodies against AP3 peptide. As shown in Fig. 2a , both T20 and C46 reacted with the antibodies in sera from five HIV-1-infected patients; however, none of the three artificial peptides AP1, AP2 and AP3 was recognized by the preexisting antibodies. The inhibitory activity of T20 on HIV-1 IIIB infection was reduced about 1.9-fold to > 3.6-fold in the presence of the sera from HIV-1-infected patients ( Fig. 2b and Supplementary Table S1), confirming that the preexisting antibodies in sera of HIV/AIDS patients can attenuate the anti-HIV-1 activity of T20 14, 15 . However, none of the artificial peptides in the present study showed significant decrease of anti-HIV-1 activity in the presence of patients' sera. Instead, the antiviral activity of AP3 increased in the presence of antisera from HIV-1-infected patients ( Fig. 2b and Supplementary Table S1), suggesting that anti-HIV-1 antibodies actually enhanced the anti-HIV-1 activity of AP3, possibly because the binding of the antibodies to some sites in gp120 or gp41 promote the interaction of AP3 with viral gp41 NHR region. AP3 had longer half-life than T20. Although T20 has shown efficacy in inhibiting HIV-1 infection, its major weakness lies in its short half-life in plasma (about 2 h) [22] [23] [24] . As a result, T20 has to be administered subcutaneously twice daily at 90 mg per dose, often causing serious injection-site reactions 25, 26 . Here, we performed pharmacokinetic studies by intravenous administration of AP3, AP2, and T20, respectively, to SD rat at a dose of 1 mg/kg, in order to compare their in vivo circulation time. As expected, T20 exhibited a shorter half-life and lower AUC (0-t) from systemic circulation, while AP3 and AP2 demonstrated much higher concentration and longer circulation time ( Table 2 ). The pharmacokinetic profiles of AP3 and AP2 fit a non-compartment model. The pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated with PK Solver. The in vivo elimination half-life of AP3 (t 1/2 = 6.02 h) was about 2.8-fold longer than that of T20 (t 1/2 = 1.57 h). This result provided the theoretical basis for reducing the injection frequency and dose of the fusion inhibitor, in conjugation with the improved antiviral potency of AP3. Therefore, replacement of T20 with AP3 may significantly reduce injection-site reactions and the drug cost, which would promote the clinical applications of the HIV fusion inhibitor in resource-poor regions or countries. AP3 was much more resistant than T20 to proteolytic degradation by proteinase K and rat liver homogenate. We compared the stability of T20 and AP3 in the presence of proteinase K (a broad-spectrum serine proteinase) and rat liver homogenate. After treatment with 20 ng/mL of proteinase K for 2 h at 37 °C, only 29% of the parental T20 peptide remained, as detected by LC-MS analysis. Under the same condition, AP3 retained 100% of its prototype (Fig. 3a ). In addition, AP3 showed a significantly enhanced in vitro metabolic stability over T20 in the presence of liver homogenate (Fig. 3b) . These results indicate that the artificial peptide AP3 is much more resistant to proteolytic degradation than the natural peptide T20, which may contribute to its significant longer in vivo half-life than T20 as described above. AP3 formed stable α-helical complex and block gp41 6-HB formation. To investigate the antiviral mechanism of AP3, the thermal stability of AP3/N36 complex was compared with that of AP1/N36, AP2/N36, T20/N36, and C34/N36 complexes by circular-dichroism (CD) spectroscopy 27 . Because T20 lacks the pocket-binding domain (PBD), the T20/N36 complex did not show a typical α -helical conformation, in consistence with our previous studies 8, 9 . Similar to the α -helicity of C34/N36 complex 3 , the AP1/N36, AP2/N36 and AP3/N36 complexes all formed a saddle-shaped negative peak at 208 nm and 222 nm, indicating their α -helical structures (Fig. 4a) Fig. 4b) , indicating that the α -helical complex formed by AP3 and N36 is the most stable among the four complexes. Then we compared the inhibitory activity of AP3 with that of AP1 and AP2 on 6-HB formation between C34 and N36. Since T20 cannot block 6-HB formation 8, 9 , we used a small-molecule HIV-1 fusion inhibitor, ADS-J1 28, 29 , to replace T20 as a control of 6-HB inhibition. As expected, ADS-J1 could effectively inhibit 6-HB formation with IC 50 of 2.75 μ M 8, 9, [27] [28] [29] . AP3 was highly effective against 6-HB formation in a dose-dependent manner with an IC 50 value of 0.24 μ M, about 30-and 15-fold more potent than AP1 and AP2, respectively (Fig. 4c) , confirming that AP3 can potently block gp41 6-HB fusion core formation, thus inhibiting HIV-1 fusion with the target cell membrane. Structural basis for the potent fusion inhibitory activity of the artificial peptide AP3. To elucidate the molecular determinants of these artificial peptides, we successfully solved all three complex structures of AP1/AP2/AP3 peptides binding with gp41 NHR. For AP1 and AP2, an optimized linker Each sample was tested in triplicate and the experiment was repeated twice. The data are presented as means ± SD. *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, ***P < 0.001. "SGGRGG" was used to assemble the NHR and the artificial peptide into a single recombinant protein (N36-L6-AP1 or N36-L6-AP2). However, a similar strategy failed on the crystallization of AP3; therefore, we decided to cocrystallize the synthetic peptide N45 and AP3 peptide, and eventually the complex crystals were obtained. Interestingly, the crystals of three different inhibitors belong to three distinctive space groups: P2 1 for N36-L6-AP1, R32 for N36-L6-AP2, and P6 3 for N45/AP3. As expected, the NHR portions in three structures all form a trimeric core, while the AP1, AP2 or AP3 portion folds into a single-helix conformation and binds to NHR-trimer to form a typical 6-HB, similar to that of the HIV-1 gp41 core structure formed by the native CHR peptide C34 and N36 (Fig. 5a) . Also, the conserved hydrophobic residues, such as W43, W46 and I50, in the artificial peptides were deeply buried into the hydrophobic Table 2 . Pharmacokinetic parameters of AP2, AP3 and T20 following intravenous administration at 1 mg/kg in male SD rats (n = 2). Figure 3 . Sensitivity of AP3 and T20 to proteolytic degradation by proteinase K and rat liver homogenate. (a) After digestion by proteinase K at pH 7.2 and (b) rat liver homogenate, the residual amount of AP3 and T20 was detected by LC-MS analysis. The experiment was performed in triplicate and the data are presented as means ± SD. The inhibition of AP1, AP2, AP3, T20 and ADS-J1 against 6-HB formation between N36 and C34 was detected by ELISA using the 6-HB-specific mAb NC-1. Each sample was tested in triplicate, and the data are presented as means ± SD. grooves formed between each pair of NHR helices, similar to the corresponding residues of W628, W631 and I635 in the native gp41 CHR (Fig. 5b) . AP peptides exhibited better affinity against gp41 natural CHR. In C34, which contains the natural CHR sequence from W628 to L661, no strong interaction between I642 and Q565 in the viral gp41 NHR-CHR complex was found (Fig. 5c) . However, in the corresponding sequence (from W43 to K76) of AP1 and AP2, a hydrogen bond was established between S57 (corresponding to I642 in CHR) and Q18 (corresponding to Q565 in NHR) in N36-L6-AP1, N36-L6-AP2 and N45/AP3. Thus, S57 in AP1/AP2/AP3 plays a role in stabilizing the interactions between the artificial peptide inhibitor and its NHR target, resulting in their stronger binding affinity. Moreover, in NHR-CHR, L567 and L568 on two adjacent NHRs form a hydrophobic groove, in which T639 is buried (Supplementary Fig. S1a ). However, in N36-L6-AP1, N36-L6-AP2 and N45/AP3, I54 (corresponding to T639 in CHR) can strongly bind to L20 and L21 through fully hydrophobic side chain interactions. Similarly, the interaction of I64 (corresponding to S659 in CHR) with L10 and L11 (corresponding to L567 and L568 in NHR, respectively) in N36-L6-AP1, N36-L6-AP2 and N45/AP3 has been significantly enhanced ( Supplementary Fig. S1b ). Like the gp41 CHR helix, the helices of AP1, AP2 and AP3 also have two different sides, a hydrophobic side facing toward the NHR and a hydrophilic one facing outward. It is expected that the enhancement of the hydrophilicity of the exposed side of the inhibitors can increase their antiviral activity and solubility. To achieve this goal, the amino acid residues with hydrophobicity, or low hydrophilicity, like N637, S640, L641 and S644 in CHR, were changed to the amino acid residues with high hydrophilicity, like E52, K55, K56 and E59 in AP1, AP2 and AP3, respectively. Moreover, the hydrophobic residue M629 in CHR was replaced with a hydrophilic residue E44 in AP2 and AP3 ( Supplementary Fig. S2 ). These hydrophilic residues, such as glutamic acid and lysine, can increase the solubility of whole peptide and, hence, stabilize the complex formed by the inhibitor and its target. It has been proved that the EE-KK double salt bridge can stabilize helix conformation 30 . We have identified this kind of interaction between i and i + 3 or i + 4 positions on the three complex structures. In N36-L6-AP1, R48 interacts with E45 and E52 to form a salt bridge network. In N36-L6-AP2, E45 interacts with K48, and E52 binds to K56, while in N45/AP3, K69 binds to E66 ( Supplementary Fig. S2 ). These strong salt bridges formed by the oppositely charged residues stabilize AP peptide conformation, bringing its inhibitory effect into full play. As previously reported, addition of the "M-T hook" to the CHR peptides C34 and sifuvertide could dramatically improve the anti-HIV-1 activity 17, 18 . As expected, the N-terminal Met and Thr of AP3 forms a hook-like structure (Fig. 5d) . The hydrophobic methionine side chain of M41 accommodates the groove between AP3 and NHR helices, capping the hydrophobic pocket. This interaction leads to a series of conformational changes. The main chain of AP3 at W43 moves 1.91 Å closer to NHR compared to AP2 (Supplementary Fig. S3 ). The side chain of W43 in AP3 flips around 90 degrees and is buried deeper than that of AP2. The side chain of E44 turns back to interact to D47, but the E45 side chain turns back from K48 and interacts with T42. Therefore, this M-T hook structure could further stabilize the binding between AP3 and NHR target. Enfuvirtide, also known as T20, was approved by the U.S. FDA as the first HIV entry inhibitor-based antiviral drug for use with other anti-HIV medicines to treat HIV-1 infected adults and children at ages 6-16 years 23,31,32 (http://www.fuzeon.com). Although T20 is an indispensable anti-HIV drug for HIV/ AIDS patients who have failed to respond to the current antiretroviral therapeutics, its shortcomings have limited its clinical application. T20 has lower anti-HIV activity and shorter half-life than other CHR peptides containing PBD, such as C34 and C38 8, 9, 33 . In addition, T20-resistant HIV-1 variants emerged shortly (e.g., 14 days) after its use in patients 34 . Most of the T20-resistant viruses carried mutations in the GIV motif (residues 36-45: GIVQQQNNLL) in the gp41 NHR domain 10, [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] . The lack of PBD contributes to the major weaknesses of T20 described above. Since the conserved hydrophobic pocket in the gp41 NHR-trimer plays a critical role in stabilizing the interaction between the gp41 NHR and CHR and formation of the fusogenic 6-HB core 1, 39, 40 , the PBD-containing CHR-peptide, like C34, can bind to viral gp41 trimer more strongly and stably, thus possessing more potent anti-HIV activity than T20, a CHR peptide without PBD 8, 9 . In the absence of PBD, T20 mainly interacts with the middle region of the NHR domain containing the GIV motif. Therefore, a virus with mutations in this motif is generally resistant to T20 10, [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] . Compared with other anti-HIV drugs, another weakness of T20 is its cross-reactivity with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients. Besides gp41, T20 could also bind to some regions in gp120. The preexisting antibodies specific for the T20's binding sites in gp120 and gp41 may indirectly suppress the anti-HIV activity of T20 14, 15 . Addition of PBD to the N-terminus of T20, such as T-1249, could significantly improve the anti-HIV-1 potency, half-life and drug-resistance profile 33, [41] [42] [43] . Addition of M-T hook structure to the N-terminus of a PBD-containing CHR-peptides, such as MT-C34 or MT-SFT, could further increase the anti-HIV-1 activity of the corresponding CHR-peptides 17, 18 . Deletion of the GIV-motif-binding domain from a CHR-peptide, such as CP621-652 and CP32M, is another effective approach to increase the genetic barrier to drug resistance 44, 45 . However, none of the above approaches is effective in preventing the cross-reaction of T20 with the preexisting anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV/AIDS patients, since the above-modified peptides mainly contain the native sequences of the HIV-1 gp41 CHR domain. Our previous studies have shown that AP1 and AP2, artificial peptides with non-native protein sequences, could form coiled-coil structure to interact with gp41 NHR and inhibit HIV-1 Env-mediated cell-cell fusion 16 . In the present study, we designed a new artificial peptide, AP3, by adding M-T hook structure to the N-terminus of AP2 (Fig. 1a) , followed by investigating the influence of preexisting anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV-infected patients on AP3, using AP1, AP2 and T20 as controls. We demonstrated that sera of HIV-infected patients could bind to T20 and significantly reduce its potency against HIV-1. However, these same serum samples did not interact with the three artificial peptides and hardly impaired their antiviral activity. Surprisingly, the antibodies in the sera could even enhance AP3's anti-HIV-1 activity (Fig. 2a,b and Supplementary Table S1 ). These results confirmed, for the first time, that replacement of the native viral sequence in T20 with an artificial sequence is an effective approach to overcome a key shortcoming of T20 whereby its anti-HIV activity could be attenuated by preexisting anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV/AIDS patients. It is worthwhile to explore why the antibodies in the sera is able to enhance the anti-HIV-1 activity of AP3. Our recent study has demonstrated that T20's anti-HIV-1 activity is enhanced by a non-neutralizing antibody directed against the NHR domain of the HIV-1 gp41 46 . We thus hypothesize that some of the anti-gp41 antibodies in HIV/AIDS patients may bind to a site in NHR domain adjacent to the AP3's binding region, resulting in increased interaction between AP3 and NHR-trimer and enhanced antiviral activity of AP3. We then compared the inhibitory activity of AP3 with M-T hook and T20/AP2 without M-T hook on infection by divergent HIV-1 strains. AP3 was more effective than either AP2 or T20 in inhibiting infection by the laboratory-adapted strains and the primary isolates of HIV-1, including those resistant to T20 (Fig. 1b, Table 1 ). One may question whether AP3 can also induce drug-resistant viruses in patients if it is used in clinics to treat HIV-infected patients. We believe that AP3 is expected to have much higher genetic barrier to resistance than T20 because AP3 contains PBD, while T20 lacks PBD. Dwyer et al. 33 used T2544, a PBD-containing CHR-peptide, to carry out a passaging experiment, using T20 as a control. They demonstrated that T20 could induce a mutant virus with high resistance (81-fold) to T20 in about 1 month, while T2544 failed to induce a resistant strain in more than 2 months in culture. After extending the passaging experiment for almost 8 months, they identified one strain with a weak resistance (8.3-fold) to T-2544, and the related mutation sites were not in the gp41 pocket region, suggesting that the PBD-containing CHR-peptides, including AP3, may have difficulty to induce drug-resistance. AP3 also had longer half-life than T20 (Table 2) , possibly because the artificial peptide AP3 is less sensitive to the proteolytic enzymes than T20 with native viral protein sequence. Removal of the proteolytic enzymes' cleavage sites in AP3 peptide is expected to further extend its half-life. These results confirmed that replacement of native protein sequence with artificial sequence and addition of the M-T hook to the PBD-containing peptide is a sound strategy for designing HIV fusion inhibitory peptides with improved antiviral activity and pharmacological properties when compared to T20. Since the three-dimensional structures of AP peptides had not been investigated before the present study, the optimization of these artificial peptide inhibitors could not be performed rationally. Our structural studies of the artificial peptides AP1/AP2/AP3 in complex with NHR showed that AP peptides, just like the CHR peptide C34, could bind to gp41 NHR to form a canonical 6-HB structure (Fig. 5a) . It is well known that a deep hydrophobic pocket exists in each groove on the surface of the viral gp41 NHR trimer. The hydrophobic residues I635, W631 and W628 in the gp41 CHR bind with the hydrophobic residues in the wall of this pocket, resulting in the formation of stable 6-HB by the strong interaction between CHR and NHR. This important feature has been well preserved in the AP1/AP2/AP3 6-HB structures (Fig. 5b) , which may account for the potent HIV-1 fusion inhibitory activities of these artificial peptides. A new hydrogen bond, which was established between S57 and Q18 in AP1/AP2/AP3 complexes, does not exist in the viral gp41 CHR-NHR complex, suggesting that S57 may play an important role in stabilizing the interactions between the peptide and NHR, resulting in binding affinities of AP1/AP2/AP3 that are stronger than those of HIV-1 gp41 CHR to NHR. Furthermore, the EE-KK double salt bridge formed between the i and i + 4 positions in the AP1/AP2/AP3 structures could stabilize helix conformation and increase the inhibitory effect of these peptides. Compared with AP1, triple-site mutations were introduced in AP2 and AP3, i.e. M44E, R48K and E49K. Those substitutions not only increase solubility of the peptide, but also trigger a series of rearrangements of certain intrahelical salt bridges to improve the stability of CHR helix structure and HIV-1 fusion inhibitory activity. M-T hook was previously demonstrated to be an effective step toward increasing the stable interaction between a CHR-peptide and the HIV-1 gp41 pocket 17, 18 . Therefore, AP2 was further optimized by incorporating Met and Thr at its N-terminus. CD spectroscopy and thermal denaturation results both indicate that the incorporation of M-T hook contribute to the formation of a more stable 6-HB core structure between AP3 (M-T hook-optimized AP2) and N36. In addition, the EE-KK double salt bridge formed between i and i + 4 positions in the N36-L6-AP3 structure contributed to increased CHR helix and 6-HB stability, resulting in improved potency of AP3, as has been noted in studies of CHR-peptides with EE-KK double mutations 30, 33, 47, 48 . Also, the HIV-1 fusion activity and half-life of AP2 may have been strengthened and extended, respectively, by the addition of M-T hook in the design of AP3. In conclusion, AP3, an artificial peptide with both PBD and M-T hook structures, exhibited improved anti-HIV-1 activity and drug-resistance profile, as well as prolonged half-life. Moreover, it did not react with the preexisting antibodies in the sera of HIV/AIDS patients. Consequently, its antiviral activity Scientific RepoRts | 5:13028 | DOi: 10.1038/srep13028 was not significantly affected by these antibodies. Therefore, AP3 shows promise as a candidate for further development as a new HIV fusion inhibitor for clinical use. This study also provides important structure and activity information for the rational design of novel artificially peptide inhibitors. Besides, our results highlighted the advantages of artificially designed peptides and confirmed that this strategy could be widely used in development of artificial peptide-based virus fusion inhibitors against HIV-1 and other enveloped viruses with class I membrane fusion proteins, such as SARS-CoV 19 , MERS-CoV 20 , and paramyxovirus 49 . Ethics statement. This study did not involve human experimentation; the only human materials used were serum samples obtained from HIV-1-infected individuals with the approval by the Ethics Committee of the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University (Protocol No. SPHCC-125-2). The methods were carried out in accordance with the approved guidelines. All of these sera samples came from adults; no minor was involved in this study. Written informed consent for the use of the clinical specimens was obtained from all patients involved in this study. Peptide synthesis. A panel of peptides (Fig. 1a) , including T20, C34, C46, AP1, AP2, AP3, as well as NHR-derived N-peptides, N36 and N45, were synthesized with a standard solid-phase FMOC method, as described previously 8, 50 . All peptides were acetylated at the N terminus and amidated at the C terminus. The peptides were found to be about 95% pure by HPLC and were identified by mass spectrometry (Perseptive Biosystems, Framingham, MA, USA). Concentrations of the peptides were determined by UV absorbance and a theoretically calculated molar-extinction coefficient based on tryptophan and tyrosine residues. Qualification assay. Chromatographic analyses were performed using an ODS-C8 column (5 μ m, 100 mm × 2.0 mm ID) kept at ambient temperature. The mobile phase was composed of acetonitrile-water-formic acid in the ratio of 50:50:0.1 (v/v/v) at a flow rate of 0.3 mL/min. The sample injection volume was 10 μ L. Acetonitrile was HPLC grade, and other chemical reagents and solvents were analytical grade. A Thermo TSQ Quantum Discovery MAX triple-quadruple tandem mass spectrometer equipped with ESI source (San Jose, CA) and Surveyor LC pump were used for LC-MS analysis. Data acquisition and data processing were performed by using Xcalibur software and LCQuan 2.0 data analysis program (Thermo Finnigan), respectively. Optimized MS parameters were as below: 4800 V spray voltage, 40.0 psi sheath gas pressure, 1.0 psi auxiliary valve flow, and 300 °C of capillary temperature. When running collision-induced dissociation (CID), the pressure was set to 1.5 mTorr. The selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode was used for AP3 while the selected ion monitoring (SIM) mode was preformed for T20. The following transitions were recorded: m/z 670.5 for AP3, m/z 1498.6 for T20. The masses of synthetic peptides T20, AP1, AP2 and AP3 were determined by MALDI-TOF-MS (Supplementary Fig. S4 and S5 ). Expression and purification of fusion protein N36-L6-AP1 and N36-L6-AP2. Using overlapping PCR, the DNA fragment encoding AP1 or AP2 peptide was attached to the 3′-end of the cDNA of gp41 NHR ("N36", 546-581), with a short linker ("L6", SGGRGG) between them. Then, the whole sequence was subcloned into the pET-28a vector (Novagen, USA) with an artificial SUMO-tag between the N-terminal His-tag and the target protein. The pET-28a-SUMO-N36-L6-AP1-or pET-28a-SUMO-N36-L6-AP2-transformed E. coli cells were induced by adding 1 mM IPTG and incubating overnight at 16 °C. Fusion protein was purified by Ni-NTA affinity resin (Qiagen, Valencia, CA, USA), and the His-SUMO-tag was cleaved off by Ulp1 enzyme treatment at 4 °C for 2 h. The purified N36-L6-AP1 or N36-L6-AP2 was applied onto a Superdex-75 gel filtration column (GE Healthcare, Piscataway, NJ, USA). Fractions containing N36-L6-AP1 or N36-L6-AP2 trimer were collected and concentrated to different concentrations by ultrafiltration. Crystallization, data collection, and structure determination. The fusion protein N36-L6-AP1 was crystallized at 16 °C using the hanging drop, vapor-diffusion method. The drops were set on a siliconized cover clip by equilibrating a mixture containing 1 μ l protein solution (25 mg/ml N36-L6-AP1 trimer in 20 mM Tris-HCl pH 8.0 and 150 mM NaCl) and 1 μ l reservoir solution (0.1 M Tris-HCl pH 8.5, 32% (w/v) PEG3350, and 0.2 M MgCl 2 ) against a 400 μ l reservoir solution. After one week, single crystals formed and were flash frozen by liquid nitrogen for future data collection. Fusion protein N36-L6-AP2 was crystallized in a similar way with a different reservoir solution (0.1 M Tris-HCl pH 8.0, 34% (w/v) PEG3350, and 0.2 M MgCl 2 ). To obtain the complex crystal of AP3 and NHR, synthesized AP3 was first mixed with peptide N45 at 1:1 molar ratio and then applied onto a Superdex-75 gel filtration column (GE Healthcare, Piscataway, NJ, USA) to isolate the formed 6-HB. Fractions containing N45/AP3 trimer were collected and concentrated to 30 mg/ml, then crystallized at 16 °C using the hanging drop, vapor-diffusion method.The drops were set on a siliconized cover clip by equilibrating a mixture containing 1 μ l protein solution (20 mM Tris-HCl pH 8.0 and 150 mM NaCl) and 1 μ l reservoir solution (0.2 M Ammonium Sulfate, 0.1 M Bis-Tris pH 6.5, and 25% w/v PEG 3350) against a 400 μ l reservoir solution. After 3 days, single crystals formed and were flash frozen by liquid nitrogen for future data collection. The datasets of N36-L6-AP1 were collected at 100 K at beamline 19-ID of the Advanced Photon Source (Argonne National Laboratory, USA). The datasets of N36-L6-AP2 were collected on an in-house x-ray source (MicroMax 007 x-ray generator, Rigaku, Japan) at the Institute of Biophysics, ChineseAcademy of Sciences. The datasets of AP3/N45 complex crystals were collected at beamline BL-19U1 of the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility, China. X-ray diffraction data were integrated and scaled using the HKL2000 program 51 . The phasing problem of all three structures was solved by the molecular replacement method using PHENIX.phaser 52 with a crystal structure of HIV gp41 NHR-CHR (PDB entry: 1SZT) as a search model. The final models were manually adjusted in COOT 53 and refined with PHENIX.refine 54 . All coordinates were deposited in the Protein Data Bank (N36-L6-AP1: 5CMU; N36-L6-AP2: 5CN0; and N45/AP3: 5CMZ). The statistics of data collection and structure refinement are given in Supplementary Table S2 . Determination of the cross-reactivity of the native and artificial peptides with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients by sandwich ELISA. A sandwich ELISA was conducted to determine the cross-reactivity of the peptides with the preexisting antibodies in HIV-1-infected patients. T20, C46, AP1, AP2 and AP3 were coated onto the wells of 96-well polystyrene plates (Costar, Corning Inc., Corning, NY) at 10 μ g/ml. The wells were then blocked with 1% gelatin, followed by addition of 50 μ l of serially diluted sera from HIV-1-infected patients and incubation at 37 °C for 1 h. Then, HRP-labeled goat-anti-human IgG (Abcam, UK) and TMB were added sequentially. A450 was determined with an ELISA reader (Ultra 384, Tecan). patients. Inhibition of peptides on HIV-1 IIIB (subtype B, X4)infection in the presence of HIV-1-infected patients' sera was determined as previously described 55 . Briefly, each peptide was mixed with serially diluted serum from an HIV-1-infected patient at room temperature for 30 min. Next, the mixture of peptide/serum and HIV-1 (100 TCID 50 ) were added to MT-2 cells (1 × 10 5 /ml) in RPMI 1640 medium containing 10% FBS. After incubation at 37 °C overnight, the culture supernatants were replaced with fresh culture medium. On the fourth day post-infection, culture supernatants were collected for detection of p24 antigen by ELISA. CD Spectroscopy and Thermal Midpoint Analysis. The secondary structure of AP1, AP2 or AP3 peptides mixed with N36 was analyzed by CD spectroscopy as previously described 56 . Briefly, each peptide or peptide mixture was dissolved in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS: 50 mM sodium phosphate and 150 mM NaCl, pH 7.2) at the final concentration of 10 μ M and incubated at 37 °C for 30 min before cooling down to 4 °C. The CD spectra of each sample were acquired on a Jasco spectropolarimeter (Model J-815, Jasco Inc., Japan) at 4 °C using a 5 nm bandwidth, 0.1 nm resolution, 0.1 cm path length, and an average time of 5.0 sec. Spectra were corrected by the subtraction of a blank corresponding to the solvent composition of each sample. Thermal midpoint analysis was used to determine the temperature at which 50% of the 6-HB formed by the CHR and NHR would decompose. It was monitored at 222 nm from 4 °C to 98 °C by applying a thermal gradient of 5 °C/min. The melting curve was smoothed, and the midpoint of the thermal unfolding transition (Tm) values was calculated using Jasco software utilities as described above. Inhibition of gp41 six-helix bundle formation by sandwich ELISA. Inhibition of gp41 six-helix bundle formation by a testing peptide was determined with a sandwich ELISA described previously 57 . Briefly, a testing peptide (ADS-J1 as a control) at graded concentrations was preincubated with peptide N36 (1 μ M) at 37 °C for 30 min, followed by the addition of peptide C34 (1 μ M) and incubation at 37 °C for another 30 min. The mixture was added to a 96-well polystyrene plate (Costar, Corning Inc., Corning, NY) precoated with anti-N36/C34 antibodies (2 μ g/ml) purified from mouse antisera specifically against the gp41 six-helix bundle 58 . Then, mAb NC-1, HRP-labeled rabbit-anti-mouse IgG (Sigma), and TMB were added in order. A450 was determined by an ELISA reader (Ultra 384, Tecan). Inhibition activities of AP1, AP2, and AP3 on HIV-1 infection were determined as previously described 57 . For inhibition of HIV-1 IIIB (subtype B, X4) infection,100 TCID 50 of the virus was added to 1 × 10 5 /ml MT-2 cells in RPMI 1640 medium containing 10% FBS in the presence or absence of the test peptide overnight. Then, the culture supernatants were changed to fresh media. On the fourth day post-infection, culture supernatants were collected for detection of p24 antigen by ELISA. For inhibition of infection by the HIV-1 strain Bal (subtype B, R5), M7 cells (1 × 10 5 /ml) were precultured overnight and infected with Bal at 100 TCID 50 in the presence or absence of the test peptide or protein overnight. Then, the culture supernatants were changed to fresh media. On the fourth day post-infection, the culture supernatants were discarded, and fresh media were complemented again. The supernatants were collected on the seventh day post-infection and tested for p24 antigen by ELISA as previously described 55 . The percent inhibition of p24 production was calculated. Analysis of the half-life of peptide inhibitors. Four male SD rats weighing approximately 200 g each were obtained from the Shanghai Medical School Animal Center and were used for the half-life assay. Animals were treated in accordance with the Animal Welfare Act and the "Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals" (NIH Publication 86-23, revised 1985). Either AP2 or AP3 was intravenously injected at the concentration of 1 mg/ml. After injection, blood samples were acquired from rat orbit at several time points (8 and 30 min and 1.5, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 h after peptide injection) and placed in clean tubes. To study the pharmacokinetics of AP2 and AP3 in rats and provide experimental evidence for the possible pharmacokinetics in human, a double-antibody sandwich ELISA method was established for rapid determination of AP2 and AP3 in rat plasma. Briefly, 96-well polystyrene plates (Costar, Corning Inc., Corning, NY) were precoated with antibody against AP2 or AP3 (5 μ g/ml) purified from rabbit anti-sera 59 . They were then preincubated with serum samples diluted 20 times at 37 °C for 1 h, followed by the addition of anti-AP2 or anti-AP3 antibody (1:1000) purified from mouse antisera specifically against AP2 or AP3 59 at 37 °C for another 1 h. Then, HRP-labeled rabbit-anti-mouse IgG (Sigma, USA) and TMB were added in order. Absorbance at 450 nm was determined by an ELISA reader (Ultra 384, Tecan). The standard peptide parameters were obtained first. Then, the plasma peptide concentrations were determined as a function of time, and the half-life was calculated by using PK Solver for Microsoft Excel to obtain pharmacokinetic parameters. Assessment of sensitivity of peptides to proteolytic digestion by proteinase K and proteolytic enzymes in liver homogenate. The peptides (10 μ g/mL) were prepared in PBS pH 7.2 containing 20 ng/ml proteinase K. The resulting mixture were incubated at 37 °C in a water bath and taken out at different time intervals (0, 5, 15, 30, 60, 120 minutes), followed by quenching the samples with ethyl alcohol and quantitating the peptides by LC-MS analysis as described above. To test the sensitivity of peptides to the proteolytic enzymes in liver homogenate, 3 male SD rats (250 ± 20 g) were sacrificed under anesthesia. The whole liver was quickly removed from each rat, washed in ice-cold PBS (50 mM, pH 7.2), weighed and cut into small pieces, which were resuspended in PBS to 100 mg wet liver tissue/2.5 ml PBS. The samples were pooled and homogenized, followed by centrifugation at 9,000 g for 20 min at 4 °C. The supernatants were collected. The test peptides were added to the liver homogenate at a final concentration of 10 μ g/ml. The resulting mixture was incubated 37 °C in a water bath, and the residue peptides in the mixture were quantitated as described above.

What was the main finding in the study?

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

What do evolutionary analyses show?

No credible evidence supporting claims of the laboratory engineering of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054935/ SHA: 5a9154aee79901dd8fecd58b7bcd9b7351102d24 Authors: Liu, Shan-Lu; Saif, Linda J.; Weiss, Susan R.; Su, Lishan Date: 2020-02-26 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1733440 License: cc-by Abstract: nan Text: The emergence and outbreak of a newly discovered acute respiratory disease in Wuhan, China, has affected greater than 40,000 people, and killed more than 1,000 as of Feb. 10, 2020. A new human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was quickly identified, and the associated disease is now referred to as coronavirus disease discovered in 2019 (COVID-19) (https://globalbiodefense. com/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-portal/). According to what has been reported [1] [2] [3] , COVID-2019 seems to have similar clinical manifestations to that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by SARS-CoV. The SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence also has ∼80% identity with SARS-CoV, but it is most similar to some bat beta-coronaviruses, with the highest being >96% identity [4, 5] . Currently, there are speculations, rumours and conspiracy theories that SARS-CoV-2 is of laboratory origin. Some people have alleged that the human SARS-CoV-2 was leaked directly from a laboratory in Wuhan where a bat CoV (RaTG13) was recently reported, which shared ∼96% homology with the SARS-CoV-2 [4] . However, as we know, the human SARS-CoV and intermediate host palm civet SARSlike CoV shared 99.8% homology, with a total of 202 single-nucleotide (nt) variations (SNVs) identified across the genome [6] . Given that there are greater than 1,100 nt differences between the human SARS-CoV-2 and the bat RaTG13-CoV [4] , which are distributed throughout the genome in a naturally occurring pattern following the evolutionary characteristics typical of CoVs, it is highly unlikely that RaTG13 CoV is the immediate source of SARS-CoV-2. The absence of a logical targeted pattern in the new viral sequences and a close relative in a wildlife species (bats) are the most revealing signs that SARS-CoV-2 evolved by natural evolution. A search for an intermediate animal host between bats and humans is needed to identify animal CoVs more closely related to human SARS-CoV-2. There is speculation that pangolins might carry CoVs closely related to SARS-CoV-2, but the data to substantiate this is not yet published (https:// www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00364-2). Another claim in Chinese social media points to a Nature Medicine paper published in 2015 [7] , which reports the construction of a chimeric CoV with a bat CoV S gene (SHC014) in the backbone of a SARS CoV that has adapted to infect mice (MA15) and is capable of infecting human cells [8] . However, this claim lacks any scientific basis and must be discounted because of significant divergence in the genetic sequence of this construct with the new SARS-CoV-2 (>5,000 nucleotides). The mouse-adapted SARS virus (MA15) [9] was generated by serial passage of an infectious wildtype SARS CoV clone in the respiratory tract of BALB/c mice. After 15 passages in mice, the SARS-CoV gained elevated replication and lung pathogenesis in aged mice (hence M15), due to six coding genetic mutations associated with mouse adaptation. It is likely that MA15 is highly attenuated to replicate in human cells or patients due to the mouse adaptation. It was proposed that the S gene from bat-derived CoV, unlike that from human patients-or civetsderived viruses, was unable to use human ACE2 as a receptor for entry into human cells [10, 11] . Civets were proposed to be an intermediate host of the bat-CoVs, capable of spreading SARS CoV to humans [6, 12] . However, in 2013 several novel bat coronaviruses were isolated from Chinese horseshoe bats and the bat SARS-like or SL-CoV-WIV1 was able to use ACE2 from humans, civets and Chinese horseshoe bats for entry [8] . Combined with evolutionary evidence that the bat ACE2 gene has been positively selected at the same contact sites as the human ACE2 gene for interacting with SARS CoV [13] , it was proposed that an intermediate host may not be necessary and that some bat SL-CoVs may be able to directly infect human hosts. To directly address this possibility, the exact S gene from bat coronavirus SL-SHC014 was synthesized and used to generate a chimeric virus in the mouse adapted MA15 SARS-CoV backbone. The resultant SL-SHC014-MA15 virus could indeed efficiently use human ACE2 and replicate in primary human airway cells to similar titres as epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. While SL-SHC014-MA15 can replicate efficiently in young and aged mouse lungs, infection was attenuated, and less virus antigen was present in the airway epithelium as compared to SARS MA15, which causes lethal outcomes in aged mice [7] . Due to the elevated pathogenic activity of the SHC014-MA15 chimeric virus relative to MA15 chimeric virus with the original human SARS S gene in mice, such experiments with SL-SHC014-MA15 chimeric virus were later restricted as gain of function (GOF) studies under the US government-mandated pause policy (https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-weare/nih-director/statements/nih-lifts-funding-pausegain-function-research). The current COVID-2019 epidemic has restarted the debate over the risks of constructing such viruses that could have pandemic potential, irrespective of the finding that these bat CoVs already exist in nature. Regardless, upon careful phylogenetic analyses by multiple international groups [5, 14] , the SARS-CoV-2 is undoubtedly distinct from SL-SHC014-MA15, with >6,000 nucleotide differences across the whole genome. Therefore, once again there is no credible evidence to support the claim that the SARS-CoV-2 is derived from the chimeric SL-SHC014-MA15 virus. There are also rumours that the SARS-CoV-2 was artificially, or intentionally, made by humans in the lab, and this is highlighted in one manuscript submitted to BioRxiv (a manuscript sharing site prior to any peer review), claiming that SARS-CoV-2 has HIV sequence in it and was thus likely generated in the laboratory. In a rebuttal paper led by an HIV-1 virologist Dr. Feng Gao, they used careful bioinformatics analyses to demonstrate that the original claim of multiple HIV insertions into the SARS-CoV-2 is not HIV-1 specific but random [15] . Because of the many concerns raised by the international community, the authors who made the initial claim have already withdrawn this report. Evolution is stepwise and accrues mutations gradually over time, whereas synthetic constructs would typically use a known backbone and introduce logical or targeted changes instead of the randomly occurring mutations that are present in naturally isolated viruses such as bat CoV RaTG13. In our view, there is currently no credible evidence to support the claim that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a laboratory-engineered CoV. It is more likely that SARS-CoV-2 is a recombinant CoV generated in nature between a bat CoV and another coronavirus in an intermediate animal host. More studies are needed to explore this possibility and resolve the natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. We should emphasize that, although SARS-CoV-2 shows no evidence of laboratory origin, viruses with such great public health threats must be handled properly in the laboratory and also properly regulated by the scientific community and governments. No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s). Susan R. Weiss http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-4528

How many people were affected as of Feb. 10, 2020?

Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7079962/ SHA: f7cfc37ea164f16393d7f4f3f2b32214dea1ded4 Authors: Jamieson, Amanda M Date: 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2016-0060 License: cc-by Abstract: Recently, two coronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, have emerged to cause unusually severe respiratory disease in humans. Currently, there is a lack of effective antiviral treatment options or vaccine available. Given the severity of these outbreaks, and the possibility of additional zoonotic coronaviruses emerging in the near future, the exploration of different treatment strategies is necessary. Disease resilience is the ability of a given host to tolerate an infection, and to return to a state of health. This review focuses on exploring various host resilience mechanisms that could be exploited for treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other respiratory viruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Text: The 21st century was heralded with the emergence of two novel coronaviruses (CoV) that have unusually high pathogenicity and mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov) was first identified in 2003 [6] [7] [8] [9] . While there was initially great concern about SARS-CoV, once no new cases emerged, funding and research decreased. However, a decade later Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), also known as HCoV-EMC, emerged initially in Saudi Arabia [3, 10] . SARS-CoV infected about 8000 people, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 10% of those infected [11] . While MERS-CoV is not as widespread as SARS-CoV, it appears to have an even higher mortality rate, with 35-50% of diagnosed infections resulting in death [3, [12] [13] . These deadly betacoronavirus viruses existed in animal reservoirs [4] [5] 9, [14] [15] . Recently, other CoVs have been detected in animal populations raising the possibility that we will see a repeat of these types of outbreaks in the near future [11, [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . Both these zoonotic viruses cause a much more severe disease than what is typically seen for CoVs, making them a global health concern. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV result in severe lung pathology. Many infected patients have acute lung injury (ALI), a condition that is diagnosed based on the presence of pulmonary edema and respiratory failure without a cardiac cause. In some patients there is a progression to the more severe form of ALI, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [21] [22] [23] . In order to survive a given infection, a successful host must not only be able to clear the pathogen, but tolerate damage caused by the pathogen itself and also by the host's immune response [24] [25] [26] . We refer to resilience as the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of pathogens and the immune response to pathogens. A resilient host is able to return to a state of health after responding to an infection [24, [27] [28] . Most currently available treatment options for infectious diseases are antimicrobials, For reprint orders, please contact: reprints@futuremedicine.com REviEW Jamieson future science group and thus target the pathogen itself. Given the damage that pathogens can cause this focus on rapid pathogen clearance is understandable. However, an equally important medical intervention is to increase the ability of the host to tolerate the direct and indirect effects of the pathogen, and this is an area that is just beginning to be explored [29] . Damage to the lung epithelium by respiratory pathogens is a common cause of decreased resilience [30] [31] [32] . This review explores some of the probable host resilience pathways to viral infections, with a particular focus on the emerging coronaviruses. We will also examine factors that make some patients disease tolerant and other patients less tolerant to the viral infection. These factors can serve as a guide to new potential therapies for improved patient care. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are typified by a rapid progression to ARDS, however, there are some distinct differences in the infectivity and pathogenicity. The two viruses have different receptors leading to different cellular tropism, and SARS-CoV is more ubiquitous in the cell type and species it can infect. SARS-CoV uses the ACE2 receptor to gain entry to cells, while MERS-CoV uses the ectopeptidase DPP4 [33] [34] [35] [36] . Unlike SARS-CoV infection, which causes primarily a severe respiratory syndrome, MERS-CoV infection can also lead to kidney failure [37, 38] . SARS-CoV also spreads more rapidly between hosts, while MERS-CoV has been more easily contained, but it is unclear if this is due to the affected patient populations and regions [3] [4] 39 ]. Since MERS-CoV is a very recently discovered virus, [40, 41] more research has been done on SARS-CoV. However, given the similarities it is hoped that some of these findings can also be applied to MERS-CoV, and other potential emerging zoonotic coronaviruses. Both viral infections elicit a very strong inflammatory response, and are also able to circumvent the immune response. There appears to be several ways that these viruses evade and otherwise redirect the immune response [1, [42] [43] [44] [45] . The pathways that lead to the induction of the antiviral type I interferon (IFN) response are common targets of many viruses, and coronaviruses are no exception. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are contained in double membrane vesicles (DMVs), that prevents sensing of its genome [1, 46] . As with most coronaviruses several viral proteins suppress the type I IFN response, and other aspects of innate antiviral immunity [47] . These alterations of the type I IFN response appear to play a role in immunopathology in more than one way. In patients with high initial viral titers there is a poor prognosis [39, 48] . This indicates that reduction of the antiviral response may lead to direct viral-induced pathology. There is also evidence that the delayed type I IFN response can lead to misregulation of the immune response that can cause immunopathology. In a mouse model of SARS-CoV infection, the type I IFN response is delayed [49] . The delay of this potent antiviral response leads to decreased viral clearance, at the same time there is an increase in inflammatory cells of the immune system that cause excessive immunopathology [49] . In this case, the delayed antiviral response not only causes immunopathology, it also fails to properly control the viral replication. While more research is needed, it appears that MERS has a similar effect on the innate immune response [5, 50] . The current treatment and prevention options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are limited. So far there are no licensed vaccines for SAR-CoV or MERS-CoV, although several strategies have been tried in animal models [51, 52] . There are also no antiviral strategies that are clearly effective in controlled trials. During outbreaks several antiviral strategies were empirically tried, but these uncontrolled studies gave mixed results [5, 39] . The main antivirals used were ribavirin, lopinavir and ritonavir [38, 53] . These were often used in combination with IFN therapy [54] . However, retrospective analysis of these data has not led to clear conclusions of the efficacy of these treatment options. Research in this area is still ongoing and it is hoped that we will soon have effective strategies to treat novel CoV [3,36,38,40, [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] . The lack of effective antivirals makes it necessary to examine other potential treatments for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Even if there were effective strategies to decrease viral burden, for these viruses, the potential for new emerging zoonotic CoVs presents additional complications. Vaccines cannot be produced in time to stop the spread of an emerging virus. In addition, as was demonstrated during SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV outbreaks, there is always a challenge during a crisis situation to know which Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses REviEW future science group www.futuremedicine.com antiviral will work on a given virus. One method of addressing this is to develop broad-spectrum antivirals that target conserved features of a given class of virus [65] . However, given the fast mutation rates of viruses there are several challenges to this strategy. Another method is to increase the ability of a given patient to tolerate the disease, i.e., target host resilience mechanisms. So far this has largely been in the form of supportive care, which relies on mechanical ventilation and oxygenation [29, 39, 66] . Since SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were discovered relatively recently there is a lack of both patient and experimental data. However, many other viruses cause ALI and ARDS, including influenza A virus (IAV). By looking at data from other high pathology viruses we can extrapolate various pathways that could be targeted during infection with these emerging CoVs. This can add to our understanding of disease resilience mechanisms that we have learned from direct studies of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Increased understanding of host resilience mechanisms can lead to future host-based therapies that could increase patient survival [29] . One common theme that emerges in many respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is that much of the pathology is due to an excessive inflammatory response. A study from Josset et al. examines the cell host response to both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and discovered that MERS-CoV dysregulates the host transcriptome to a much greater extent than SARS-CoV [67] . It demonstrates that glucocorticoids may be a potential way of altering the changes in the host transcriptome at late time points after infection. If host gene responses are maintained this may increase disease resilience. Given the severe disease that manifested during the SARS-CoV outbreak, many different treatment options were empirically tried on human patients. One immunomodulatory treatment that was tried during the SARS-CoV outbreak was systemic corticosteroids. This was tried with and without the use of type I IFNs and other therapies that could directly target the virus [68] . Retrospective analysis revealed that, when given at the correct time and to the appropriate patients, corticosteroid use could decrease mortality and also length of hospital stays [68] . In addition, there is some evidence that simultaneous treatment with IFNs could increase the potential benefits [69] . Although these treatments are not without complications, and there has been a lack of a randomized controlled trial [5, 39] . Corticosteroids are broadly immunosuppressive and have many physiological effects [5, 39] . Several recent studies have suggested that other compounds could be useful in increasing host resilience to viral lung infections. A recent paper demonstrates that topoisomerase I can protect against inflammation-induced death from a variety of viral infections including IAV [70] . Blockade of C5a complement signaling has also been suggested as a possible option in decreasing inflammation during IAV infection [71] . Other immunomodulators include celecoxib, mesalazine and eritoran [72, 73] . Another class of drugs that have been suggested are statins. They act to stabilize the activation of aspects of the innate immune response and prevent excessive inflammation [74] . However, decreasing immunopathology by immunomodulation is problematic because it can lead to increased pathogen burden, and thus increase virus-induced pathology [75, 76] . Another potential treatment option is increasing tissue repair pathways to increase host resilience to disease. This has been shown by bioinformatics [77] , as well as in several animal models [30-31,78-79]. These therapies have been shown in cell culture model systems or animal models to be effective, but have not been demonstrated in human patients. The correct timing of the treatments is essential. Early intervention has been shown to be the most effective in some cases, but other therapies work better when given slightly later during the course of the infection. As the onset of symptoms varies slightly from patient to patient the need for precise timing will be a challenge. Examination of potential treatment options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV should include consideration of host resilience [29] . In addition to the viral effects, and the pathology caused by the immune response, there are various comorbidities associated with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that lead to adverse outcomes. Interestingly, these additional risk factors that lead to a more severe disease are different between the two viruses. It is unclear if these differences are due to distinct populations affected by the viruses, because of properties of the virus themselves, or both. Understanding these factors could be a key to increasing host resilience to the infections. MERS-CoV patients had increased morbidity and mortality if they were obese, immunocompromised, diabetic or had cardiac disease [4, 12] . REviEW Jamieson future science group Risk factors for SARS-CoV patients included an older age and male [39] . Immune factors that increased mortality for SARS-CoV were a higher neutrophil count and low T-cell counts [5, 39, 77] . One factor that increased disease for patients infected with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV was infection with other viruses or bacteria [5, 39] . This is similar to what is seen with many other respiratory infections. A recent study looking at malaria infections in animal models and human patients demonstrated that resilient hosts can be predicted [28] . Clinical studies have started to correlate specific biomarkers with disease outcomes in ARDS patients [80] . By understanding risk factors for disease severity we can perhaps predict if a host may be nonresilient and tailor the treatment options appropriately. A clear advantage of targeting host resilience pathways is that these therapies can be used to treat a variety of different infections. In addition, there is no need to develop a vaccine or understand the antiviral susceptibility of a new virus. Toward this end, understanding why some patients or patient populations have increased susceptibility is of paramount importance. In addition, a need for good model systems to study responses to these new emerging coronaviruses is essential. Research into both these subjects will lead us toward improved treatment of emerging viruses that cause ALI, such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The author has no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript. • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus are zoonotic coronaviruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. • Antivirals have limited effects on the course of the infection with these coronaviruses. • There is currently no vaccine for either severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus or Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. • Host resilience is the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of an infection and return to a state of health. • Several pathways, including control of inflammation, metabolism and tissue repair may be targeted to increase host resilience. • The future challenge is to target host resilience pathways in such a way that there are limited effects on pathogen clearance pathways. Future studies should determine the safety of these types of treatments for human patients. Papers of special note have been highlighted as:

When was SARS-CoV first identified?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

What is MERS mostly known as?

Development of an ELISA-array for simultaneous detection of five encephalitis viruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3305475/ SHA: ef2b8f83d5a3ab8ae35e4b51fea6d3ed9eb49122 Authors: Kang, Xiaoping; Li, Yuchang; Fan, Li; Lin, Fang; Wei, Jingjing; Zhu, Xiaolei; Hu, Yi; Li, Jing; Chang, Guohui; Zhu, Qingyu; Liu, Hong; Yang, Yinhui Date: 2012-02-27 DOI: 10.1186/1743-422x-9-56 License: cc-by Abstract: Japanese encephalitis virus(JEV), tick-borne encephalitis virus(TBEV), and eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) can cause symptoms of encephalitis. Establishment of accurate and easy methods by which to detect these viruses is essential for the prevention and treatment of associated infectious diseases. Currently, there are still no multiple antigen detection methods available clinically. An ELISA-array, which detects multiple antigens, is easy to handle, and inexpensive, has enormous potential in pathogen detection. An ELISA-array method for the simultaneous detection of five encephalitis viruses was developed in this study. Seven monoclonal antibodies against five encephalitis-associated viruses were prepared and used for development of the ELISA-array. The ELISA-array assay is based on a "sandwich" ELISA format and consists of viral antibodies printed directly on 96-well microtiter plates, allowing for direct detection of 5 viruses. The developed ELISA-array proved to have similar specificity and higher sensitivity compared with the conventional ELISAs. This method was validated by different viral cultures and three chicken eggs inoculated with infected patient serum. The results demonstrated that the developed ELISA-array is sensitive and easy to use, which would have potential for clinical use. Text: Japanese encephalitis virus(JEV), tick-borne encephalitis virus(TBEV), eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), sindbis virus(SV), and dengue virus(DV) are arboviruses and cause symptoms of encephalitis, with a wide range of severity and fatality rates [1] . Establishment of an accurate and easy method for detection of these viruses is essential for the prevention and treatment of associated infectious diseases. Currently, ELISA and IFA are the methods which are clinically-available for the detection of encephalitis viral antigens, but they could only detect one pathogen in one assay [2, 3] . There are a variety of different methods available for identifying multiple antigens in one sample simultaneously, such as two-dimensional gel electrophoresis , protein chip, mass spectrometry, and suspension array technology [4] [5] [6] . However, the application of these techniques on pathogen detection is still in an early phase, perhaps due to the complicated use and high cost. Antibody arrays for simultaneous multiple antigen quantification are considered the most accurate methods [7] [8] [9] [10] . Liew [11] validated one multiplex ELISA for the detection of 9 antigens; Anderson [12] used microarray ELISA for multiplex detection of antibodies to tumor antigens in breast cancer, and demonstrated that ELISA-based array assays had the broadest dynamic range and lowest sample volume requirements compared with the other assays. However, the application of ELISA-based arrays is currently limited to detection of cancer markers or interleukins; no detection of pathogens has been reported. In this study, we developed an ELISA-based array for the simultaneous detection of five encephalitis viruses. Seven specific monoclonal antibodies were prepared against five encephalitis viruses and used to establish an ELISA-array assay. The assay was validated using cultured viruses and inoculated chicken eggs with patient sera. The results demonstrated that this method combined the advantage of ELISA and protein array (multiplex and ease of use) and has potential for the identification of clinical encephalitis virus. Monoclonal antibodies were prepared from hybridoma cell lines constructed by Prof. Zhu et al. Purification was conducted by immunoaffinity chromatography on protein G affinity sepharose [13] . Specific monoclonal antibodies (4D5 against JEV, 2B5 against TBEV, 1F1 against SV, 2B8 against serotype 2 DV, 4F9 against serotype 4 DV, 4E11 against EEEV, and 2A10 against Flavivirus) were selected for this study. All of the antibodies were raised according to standard procedures. Using 4D5, 2B5, 1F1, 2B8, 4F9, and 4E11 as capture antibodies, detection antibodies (2A10, 1 F1, and 4E11) were coupled to biotin-NHS ester(Pierce, Germany) at 4°C for 3 h according to the manufacturer's instructions. Unincorporated biotin was removed by Desalt spin column (Pierce). Immunologic reactions were reported by Streptavidin-HRP (CWBIO, Beijing, China) and Super Signal ELISA Femto Maximum sensitive substrate. Purified goat-anti mouse antibody was used as a positive control. JEV and DV were cultured in C6/36 cells; SV, TBEV, and EEEV were cultured in BHK-21 cells. The culture of TBEV and EEEV was conducted in biosafety level 3 facility, however, JEV, DV and SV were conducted in biosafety level 2 facility. Viral titers were determined by the 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID 50 ) method. All the cultures were inactivated by 0.025% β-propionolactone at 4°C overnight, then 37°C for 1 h to decompose β-propionolactone. Antibodies were spotted using a BIODOT machine (BD6000;California, USA) on ELISA plates (30 nl/dot). The plates were blocked with 3% BSA-PBS in 37°C for 1 h, followed by washing 3 times with PBS containing 0.1% Tween-20 for 2 min each. Then, the plates were dried, sealed, and stored at 4°C before use [11] . When spotting, different spotting buffers and concentrations of capture monoclonal antibodies were evaluated to optimize the ELISA-array assay. The optimization was evaluated by dot morphology and signal intensity. The tested spotting buffers included 1 × phosphate buffer saline (PBS), PBS +20% glycerol, and 1 × PBS + 20% glycerol+0.004% Triton-X100. A range of monoclonal antibody concentrations (0.0125, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1, and 0.2 mg/ml) were compared. Following a double antibody sandwich format, printed plates were incubated sequentially with inactivated viral cultures, biotin-labeled detecting antibody, HPR-labeled avidin, and substrate, followed by signal evaluation. Antigen binding was performed in PBS(containing 0.1% Tween-20 and 5% FCS) at 37°C for 2 h, followed by washing 3 times(1 × PBS containing 0.1% Tween-20). Incubation of ELISA plates with biotinylated detecting antibody cocktails was performed in PBS (containing 0.1% Tween-20 and 5% FCS) at 37°C for 2 h. After washing, specific binding of the detecting antibodies was reported by streptavidin-HRP and stained with Super Signal ELISA Femto Maximum sensitive substrate (Thermo scientific, Rockford, USA) [11, 14, 15] . Visualization of the plate was performed in AE 1000 cool CCD image analyzer(Beijing BGI GBI Biotech Company., LTD, China). The signal intensity and background of each spot was read out and recorded with "Monster"software. The positive signals were defined as a signal value > 400 and a signal value (sample)/signal value (negative) > 2. The identical antibodies used in the ELISA-array format were also tested in a conventional ELISA format to determine the difference in sensitivity and specificity of the two methods. The conventional ELISAs were performed at the same time as the ELISA-array assays to ensure similar reaction conditions. The conventional ELISAs were performed in an identical maner to the ELISA-array, except that antibodies were coated at a concentration of 2 μg/mL in PBS (pH 7.4), and substrate TMB was used instead of Super Signal ELISA Femto Maximum sensitive substrate [16, 17] . Three serum samples were collected from patients with nervous system symptoms and histories of tick bites. The serum samples were treated with penicillin and streptomycin, then inoculated into the allantoic cavities of chicken eggs. 3 days later, the liquid was collected and divided into two portions (one for inactivation and one for RNA extraction). The RNA and inactivated samples were stored at -70°C before use. RNA was extracted from the inoculated chicken eggs using a RNeasy mini kit (Qiagen Inc., Valencia, CA, USA) according to the manufacturer's instructions. All RNA extraction procedures were conducted at BSL-3 facilities. The primers and probes were used as previously described [18] . The real-time RT-PCR was conducted with a Quti-teck q-RT-PCR Kit (Qiagen Inc,). The reaction consisted of 10 μL of 2 × reaction buffer (0.2 μL reverse transcription enzyme, and 250 nmol/l primers and probes). RNA and deionized water were added to a final volume of 20 μl. PCR was performed with a LightCycler 2.0 (Roche, Switzerland) [19] . Optimization of the ELISA-array assay The spotted array layout is depicted in Figure 1 and the efficacy of three different spotting buffers on the quality of the printed ELISA-arrays were investigated by spot morphology observation and signal intensity comparison. The spotting concentration of the capture antibodies varied from 0.2 to 0.0125 mg/ml (each was serially diluted 2-fold). The efficacy of the spotting concentration of the capture antibodies was evaluated by virus culture detection, the proper spotting concentration was determined by a combination of minimized cross reaction and higher signal intensity. Figure 1 illustrates the array layout and Figure 2 demonstrates the result of the three spotting buffers and spot concentration of antibody 2B5 by TBE virus culture detection. Cross reaction detection was also conducted by applying JEV, YF, and DV cultures. Spot morphology observation (Figures 2a, b , and 2c) demonstrated that spotting buffer containing PBS with 20% glycerol produced tailed spot morphology; buffers containing PBS alone and PBS with 20% glycerol +0.004% Triton-X100 gave good spot morphology (round and full). Buffers containing PBS with 20% glycerol and PBS with 20% glycerol+0.004% Triton-X100 produced higher signal intensities than PBS alone. Thus, PBS with 20% glycerol+0.004% Triton-X100 was adopted as the optimized spotting buffer for subsequent experiments. Simultaneously, the spot concentration evaluation suggested that 0.05 mg/ml was optimal. At this concentration, the signal intensity was higher and the cross-reaction did not appear (Figure 2d ). Consequently, spotting concentration optimization of other capture antibodies (4D5, 1F1, 4E11, and 2B8) demonstrated that 0.05 mg/ml was also suitable(data not shown). The optimized ELISA array layout is shown in Figure 3 , which was applied in the following experiments. Successful detection of viral pathogens requires a test with high sensitivity and specificity. To evaluate the performance of the designed antibody arrays, the specificity and sensitivity of the individual analytes were examined. By testing serially-diluted viral cultures, including DV-2, DV-4, JEV, TBE, SV, and EEEV, the sensitivity of ELISAarray and the identical conventional ELISA were compared ( Table 1 ). The detection limit of the two methods was compared and demonstrated. The cross-reactivity test was conducted using BHK-21 and vero cell lysate, Yellow fever virus (YFV) cultures (5 × 10 5 TCID 50 /ml, West Nile virus(WNV) cultures(2 × 10 6 TCID 50 /ml), and Western equine encephalitis virus(1 × 10 7 TCID 50 /ml). The results demonstrated that neither the ELISA-array nor traditional ELISA displayed cross-reactivity. Equal volumes of cultured TBEV, JEV, DV-2, DV-4, SV, and EEEV were prepared for single sample detection; two or three of the cultures were mixed for multiplex detection. A cocktail of biotin conjugated antibody (2A10, 4E11, and 1F1) was used in all tests. The results demonstrated that for all virus combinations, each virus was detected specifically, with no false-positive or-negative results (Figures 4 and 5) . Chicken eggs inoculated with infected human serum were used for validation of the ELISA-array assay. All samples showed high reaction signals with capture antibody 2B5, which was specific for TBEV ( Figure 6b ). The ELISA-array assay suggested that the three patients were all infected with TBEV. To verify the results tested by ELISA-array, RNA extracted from chicken eggs was applied to a real time-RT-PCR assay using primers and probes targeting TBEV. The results were also positive (Figure 6a) . The consensus detection results confirmed that the ELISAarray assay was reliable. To be widely used in the clinical setting, the detection system should be easy to use and can be performed by untrained staff with little laboratory and experimental experience. Moreover, when the volume of the clinical samples is limited and an increasing number of pathogens per sample needs to be tested, the detecting system should be high-throughput to allow detection of multiple pathogens simultaneously [6, 20, 21] . Multiple detection, easy to use, and affordability are requirements for detection methods in the clinical setting. Thus, an ELISA-array, which combines the advantages of ELISA and protein array, meets the above requirements. It has been reported that an ELISA-array has been used in the diagnosis of cancer and auto-allergic disease [7, 12] ; however, No study has reported the detection of viral pathogens. In this study, we developed a multiplex ELISA-based method in a double-antibody sandwich format for the simultaneous detection of five encephalitis-associated viral pathogens. The production of a reliable antibody chip for identification of microorganisms requires careful screening of capture of antibodies [14] . Cross-reactivity must be minimized and the affinity of the antibody is as important as the specificity. First, we prepared and screened 23 monoclonal antibodies against eight viruses and verified the specificity and affinity to the target viruses by an immunofluorescence assay. Then, the antibodies were screened by an ELISA-array with a double-antibody sandwich ELISA format. The antibodies which produced cross-reactivity and low-positive signals were excluded. Finally, six antibodies were selected as capture antibodies. Another monoclonal antibody, 2A10, which could specifically react with all viruses in the genus Flavivirus was used for detecting antibody against DV, JEV, and TBEV. For the detection of EEEV and SV, although the detecting and trapping antibodies were the same (1F1 and 4E11, respectively), the antibodies produced excellent positive signals. The epitope was not defined; however, we suspect that the antibodies both target the surface of the virions. As one virion exits as, many with the same epitope appear, thus no interference occurred using the same antibody in the double-antibody sandwich format assay. Currently, the availability of antibodies suitable for an array format diagnostic assay is a major problem. In the ELISA-array assay, this problem exists as well. Because of the limitation of available antibodies, this assay could only detect 5 pathogens. In the future, with increasing numbers of suitable antibodies, especially specific antibodies against Flavivirus, this ELISAarray might be able to test more pathogens and be of greater potential use. To make the assay more amenable to multiple virus detection, the assay protocol was optimized. In addition to the dotting buffer, the capture antibody concentration and the different virus inactivation methods (heating and β-propiolactone) were also compared and evaluated. Heat inactivation was performed by heating the viral cultures at 56°C for 1 h, and β-propiolactone inactivation was performed by adding β-propiolactone into the retains better antigenicity than the heat-inactivation method. Thus, β-propiolactone treatment was chosen as the virus-inactivation method. A conventional ELISA is a standard method in many diagnostic laboratories. We compared the ELISA-array with a conventional ELISA and confirmed that the advantage of the ELISA-array was evident with comparable specificity and higher sensitivity than ELISA. The time required for the ELISA-array is significantly less than for conventional ELISA (4 h vs. a minimum of 6 h, respectively). Furthermore, less IgG is required for printing than for coating ELISA plates. Coating of a single well in microtiter plate requires 100 μl of a 1 μg/ml antibody solution, which is equivalent to 100 ng of IgG. For the ELISA-array, only 30 nl of a 50 μg/ml antibody solution is required for each spot, which is equivalent to 1.5 ng of IgG. With the characteristics of ease of use, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, the ELISA-array assay would be widely accepted for clinical use.

How many antigens could be detected by Liew's multiplex ELISA test?

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics Jeffery K. Taubenberger" and David M. Morens1- The “Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918—1919, which caused :50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. The public health implications of the pandemic therefore remain in doubt even as we now grapple with the feared emergence of a pandemic caused by H5N1 or other virus. However, new information about the 1918 virus is emerging, for example, sequencing of the entire genome from archival autopsy tis- sues. But, the viral genome alone is unlikely to provide answers to some critical questions. Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis. ”Curiouser and curiouser/ ” criedAlice Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 1865 An estimated one third of the world’s population (or z500 million persons) were infected and had clinical- ly apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 191871919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case- fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at z50 million (577) and were arguably as high as 100 mil- lion (7). The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 191871919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (except- ing human infections from avian Viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 Virus, including “drifted” H1N1 Viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 Viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 Virus, updated by subsequently-incor— porated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface *Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and TNational Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA proteins, making the 1918 Virus indeed the “mother” of all pandemics. In 1918, the cause of human influenza and its links to avian and swine influenza were unknown. Despite clinical and epidemiologic similarities to influenza pandemics of 1889, 1847, and even earlier, many questioned whether such an explosively fatal disease could be influenza at all. That question did not begin to be resolved until the 1930s, when closely related influenza Viruses (now known to be H1N1 Viruses) were isolated, first from pigs and shortly thereafter from humans. Seroepidemiologic studies soon linked both of these viruses to the 1918 pandemic (8). Subsequent research indicates that descendants of the 1918 Virus still persists enzootically in pigs. They probably also circulated continuously in humans, undergoing gradual antigenic drift and causing annual epidemics, until the 1950s. With the appearance of a new H2N2 pandemic strain in 1957 (“Asian flu”), the direct H1N1 Viral descen- dants 0f the 1918 pandemic strain disappeared from human circulation entirely, although the related lineage persisted enzootically in pigs. But in 1977, human H1N1 Viruses suddenly “reemerged” from a laboratory freezer (9). They continue to circulate endemically and epidemically. Thus in 2006, 2 major descendant lineages of the 1918 H1N1 Virus, as well as 2 additional reassortant lineages, persist naturally: a human epidemic/endemic H1N1 line- age, a porcine enzootic H1N1 lineage (so-called classic swine flu), and the reassorted human H3N2 Virus lineage, which like the human H1N1 Virus, has led to a porcine H3N2 lineage. None of these Viral descendants, however, approaches the pathogenicity of the 1918 parent Virus. Apparently, the porcine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages uncom- monly infect humans, and the human H1N1 and H3N2 lin- eages have both been associated with substantially lower rates ofillness and death than the virus of 1918. In fact, cur- rent H1N1 death rates are even lower than those for H3N2 lineage strains (prevalent from 1968 until the present). H1N1 Viruses descended from the 1918 strain, as well as H3N2 Viruses, have now been cocirculating worldwide for 29 years and show little evidence of imminent extinction. Trying To Understand What Happened By the early 1990s, 75 years of research had failed to answer a most basic question about the 1918 pandemic: why was it so fatal? No Virus from 1918 had been isolated, but all of its apparent descendants caused substantially milder human disease. Moreover, examination of mortality data from the 1920s suggests that within a few years after 1918, influenza epidemics had settled into a pattern of annual epidemicity associated with strain drifting and sub- stantially lowered death rates. Did some critical Viral genet- ic event produce a 1918 Virus of remarkable pathogenicity and then another critical genetic event occur soon after the 1918 pandemic to produce an attenuated H1N1 Virus? In 1995, a scientific team identified archival influenza autopsy materials collected in the autumn of 1918 and began the slow process of sequencing small Viral RNA fragments to determine the genomic structure of the causative influenza Virus (10). These efforts have now determined the complete genomic sequence of 1 Virus and partial sequences from 4 others. The primary data from the above studies (11717) and a number of reviews covering different aspects of the 1918 pandemic have recently been published ([8720) and confirm that the 1918 Virus is the likely ancestor of all 4 of the human and swine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages, as well as the “extinct” H2N2 lineage. No known mutations correlated with high pathogenicity in other human or animal influenza Viruses have been found in the 1918 genome, but ongoing studies to map Virulence factors are yielding interesting results. The 1918 sequence data, however, leave unanswered questions about the ori- gin of the Virus (19) and about the epidemiology of the pandemic. When and Where Did the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Arise? Before and after 1918, most influenza pandemics developed in Asia and spread from there to the rest of the world. Confounding definite assignment of a geographic point of origin, the 1918 pandemic spread more or less simultaneously in 3 distinct waves during an z12-month period in 191871919, in Europe, Asia, and North America (the first wave was best described in the United States in March 1918). Historical and epidemiologic data are inade- quate to identify the geographic origin of the Virus (21), and recent phylogenetic analysis of the 1918 Viral genome does not place the Virus in any geographic context ([9). Although in 1918 influenza was not a nationally reportable disease and diagnostic criteria for influenza and pneumonia were vague, death rates from influenza and pneumonia in the United States had risen sharply in 1915 and 1916 because of a major respiratory disease epidemic beginning in December 1915 (22). Death rates then dipped slightly in 1917. The first pandemic influenza wave appeared in the spring of 1918, followed in rapid succes- sion by much more fatal second and third waves in the fall and winter of 191871919, respectively (Figure 1). Is it pos- sible that a poorly-adapted H1N1 Virus was already begin- ning to spread in 1915, causing some serious illnesses but not yet sufficiently fit to initiate a pandemic? Data consis- tent with this possibility were reported at the time from European military camps (23), but a counter argument is that if a strain with a new hemagglutinin (HA) was caus- ing enough illness to affect the US national death rates from pneumonia and influenza, it should have caused a pandemic sooner, and when it eventually did, in 1918, many people should have been immune or at least partial- ly immunoprotected. “Herald” events in 1915, 1916, and possibly even in early 1918, if they occurred, would be dif- ficult to identify. The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique fea- ture, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The Virus of the 1918 pandemic like- ly expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neu- raminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 Virus were derived from an avianlike influenza Virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor Virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15, 24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the Virus also support this conclu- sion. Regression analyses of human and swine influenza sequences obtained from 1930 to the present place the ini- tial circulation of the 1918 precursor Virus in humans at approximately 191571918 (20). Thus, the precursor was probably not circulating widely in humans until shortly before 1918, nor did it appear to have jumped directly from any species of bird studied to date (19). In summary, its origin remains puzzling. Were the 3 Waves in 1918—1 919 Caused by the Same Virus? If So, How and Why? Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of interpandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza Viruses behave differently when they find a uni- versal or highly susceptible human population. Thereafter, confronted by the selection pressures of population immu- nity, these pandemic Viruses begin to drift genetically and eventually settle into a pattern of annual epidemic recur- rences caused by the drifted Virus variants. Figure 1. Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918—1919 (21). In the 1918-1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A sec- ond or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919 (21). Clinical similari- ties led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves. The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandem- ic and in prior interpandemic years. In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infec- tions to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 191871919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher fre- quency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves. But 3 extensive pandemic waves of influenza within 1 year, occurring in rapid succession, with only the briefest of quiescent intervals between them, was unprecedented. The occurrence, and to some extent the severity, of recur- rent annual outbreaks, are driven by Viral antigenic drift, with an antigenic variant Virus emerging to become domi- nant approximately every 2 to 3 years. Without such drift, circulating human influenza Viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further Virus spread was sufficiently limited. The timing and spacing of influenza epidemics in interpandemic years have been subjects of speculation for decades. Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting Virus spread in all but the most favorable circumstances, which include lower environ- mental temperatures and human nasal temperatures (bene- ficial to thermolabile Viruses such as influenza), optimal humidity, increased crowding indoors, and imperfect ven- tilation due to closed windows and suboptimal airflow. However, such factors cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918-1919, which occurred in the spring-sum- mer, summer—fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively. The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to influenza Virus spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Furthermore, the interwave peri- ods were so brief as to be almost undetectable in some locales. Reconciling epidemiologically the steep drop in cases in the first and second waves with the sharp rises in cases of the second and third waves is difficult. Assuming even transient postinfection immunity, how could suscep- tible persons be too few to sustain transmission at 1 point, and yet enough to start a new explosive pandemic wave a few weeks later? Could the Virus have mutated profoundly and almost simultaneously around the world, in the short periods between the successive waves? Acquiring Viral drift sufficient to produce new influenza strains capable of escaping population immunity is believed to take years of global circulation, not weeks of local circulation. And hav- ing occurred, such mutated Viruses normally take months to spread around the world. At the beginning of other “off season” influenza pan- demics, successive distinct waves within a year have not been reported. The 1889 pandemic, for example, began in the late spring of 1889 and took several months to spread throughout the world, peaking in northern Europe and the United States late in 1889 or early in 1890. The second recurrence peaked in late spring 1891 (more than a year after the first pandemic appearance) and the third in early 1892 (21 ). As was true for the 1918 pandemic, the second 1891 recurrence produced of the most deaths. The 3 recur- rences in 1889-1892, however, were spread over >3 years, in contrast to 191871919, when the sequential waves seen in individual countries were typically compressed into z879 months. What gave the 1918 Virus the unprecedented ability to generate rapidly successive pandemic waves is unclear. Because the only 1918 pandemic Virus samples we have yet identified are from second-wave patients ([6), nothing can yet be said about whether the first (spring) wave, or for that matter, the third wave, represented circulation of the same Virus or variants of it. Data from 1918 suggest that persons infected in the second wave may have been pro- tected from influenza in the third wave. But the few data bearing on protection during the second and third waves after infection in the first wave are inconclusive and do lit- tle to resolve the question of whether the first wave was caused by the same Virus or whether major genetic evolu- tionary events were occurring even as the pandemic exploded and progressed. Only influenza RNAipositive human samples from before 1918, and from all 3 waves, can answer this question. What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus? Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 Virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant Virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the con- trary, the 1918 Virus appears to be an avianlike influenza Virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza Virus gene sequences from a number offixed specimens ofwild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian Viruses isolated today, indicating that avian Viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25). For example, the 1918 nucleoprotein (NP) gene sequence is similar to that ofviruses found in wild birds at the amino acid level but very divergent at the nucleotide level, which suggests considerable evolutionary distance between the sources of the 1918 NP and of currently sequenced NP genes in wild bird strains (13,19). One way of looking at the evolutionary distance of genes is to com- pare ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions. A synonymous substitution represents a silent change, a nucleotide change in a codon that does not result in an amino acid replacement. A nonsynonymous substitution is a nucleotide change in a codon that results in an amino acid replacement. Generally, a Viral gene sub- jected to immunologic drift pressure or adapting to a new host exhibits a greater percentage of nonsynonymous mutations, while a Virus under little selective pressure accumulates mainly synonymous changes. Since little or no selection pressure is exerted on synonymous changes, they are thought to reflect evolutionary distance. Because the 1918 gene segments have more synony- mous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza Virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far. This is especially apparent when one examines the differences at 4-fold degenerate codons, the subset of synonymous changes in which, at the third codon position, any of the 4 possible nucleotides can be substituted without changing the resulting amino acid. At the same time, the 1918 sequences have too few amino acid difierences from those of wild-bird strains to have spent many years adapting only in a human or swine intermedi- ate host. One possible explanation is that these unusual gene segments were acquired from a reservoir of influenza Virus that has not yet been identified or sampled. All of these findings beg the question: where did the 1918 Virus come from? In contrast to the genetic makeup of the 1918 pandem- ic Virus, the novel gene segments of the reassorted 1957 and 1968 pandemic Viruses all originated in Eurasian avian Viruses (26); both human Viruses arose by the same mech- anismireassortment of a Eurasian wild waterfowl strain with the previously circulating human H1N1 strain. Proving the hypothesis that the Virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic had a markedly different origin requires samples of human influenza strains circulating before 1918 and samples of influenza strains in the wild that more closely resemble the 1918 sequences. What Was the Biological Basis for 1918 Pandemic Virus Pathogenicity? Sequence analysis alone does not ofier clues to the pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus. A series of experiments are under way to model Virulence in Vitro and in animal models by using Viral constructs containing 1918 genes produced by reverse genetics. Influenza Virus infection requires binding of the HA protein to sialic acid receptors on host cell surface. The HA receptor-binding site configuration is different for those influenza Viruses adapted to infect birds and those adapted to infect humans. Influenza Virus strains adapted to birds preferentially bind sialic acid receptors with 01 (273) linked sugars (27729). Human-adapted influenza Viruses are thought to preferentially bind receptors with 01 (2%) link- ages. The switch from this avian receptor configuration requires of the Virus only 1 amino acid change (30), and the HAs of all 5 sequenced 1918 Viruses have this change, which suggests that it could be a critical step in human host adaptation. A second change that greatly augments Virus binding to the human receptor may also occur, but only 3 of5 1918 HA sequences have it (16). This means that at least 2 H1N1 receptor-binding vari- ants cocirculated in 1918: 1 with high—affinity binding to the human receptor and 1 with mixed-affinity binding to both avian and human receptors. No geographic or chrono- logic indication eXists to suggest that one of these variants was the precursor of the other, nor are there consistent dif- ferences between the case histories or histopathologic fea- tures of the 5 patients infected with them. Whether the Viruses were equally transmissible in 1918, whether they had identical patterns of replication in the respiratory tree, and whether one or both also circulated in the first and third pandemic waves, are unknown. In a series of in Vivo experiments, recombinant influen- za Viruses containing between 1 and 5 gene segments of the 1918 Virus have been produced. Those constructs bearing the 1918 HA and NA are all highly pathogenic in mice (31). Furthermore, expression microarray analysis performed on whole lung tissue of mice infected with the 1918 HA/NA recombinant showed increased upregulation of genes involved in apoptosis, tissue injury, and oxidative damage (32). These findings are unexpected because the Viruses with the 1918 genes had not been adapted to mice; control experiments in which mice were infected with modern human Viruses showed little disease and limited Viral replication. The lungs of animals infected with the 1918 HA/NA construct showed bronchial and alveolar epithelial necrosis and a marked inflammatory infiltrate, which suggests that the 1918 HA (and possibly the NA) contain Virulence factors for mice. The Viral genotypic basis of this pathogenicity is not yet mapped. Whether pathogenicity in mice effectively models pathogenicity in humans is unclear. The potential role of the other 1918 pro- teins, singularly and in combination, is also unknown. Experiments to map further the genetic basis of Virulence of the 1918 Virus in various animal models are planned. These experiments may help define the Viral component to the unusual pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus but cannot address whether specific host factors in 1918 accounted for unique influenza mortality patterns. Why Did the 1918 Virus Kill So Many Healthy Young Ad ults? The curve of influenza deaths by age at death has histor- ically, for at least 150 years, been U-shaped (Figure 2), exhibiting mortality peaks in the very young and the very old, with a comparatively low frequency of deaths at all ages in between. In contrast, age-specific death rates in the 1918 pandemic exhibited a distinct pattern that has not been documented before or since: a “W—shaped” curve, similar to the familiar U-shaped curve but with the addition of a third (middle) distinct peak of deaths in young adults z20410 years of age. Influenza and pneumonia death rates for those 1534 years of age in 191871919, for example, were 20 times higher than in previous years (35). Overall, near- ly half of the influenza—related deaths in the 1918 pandem- ic were in young adults 20410 years of age, a phenomenon unique to that pandemic year. The 1918 pandemic is also unique among influenza pandemics in that absolute risk of influenza death was higher in those <65 years of age than in those >65; persons <65 years of age accounted for >99% of all excess influenza—related deaths in 191871919. In com- parison, the <65-year age group accounted for 36% of all excess influenza—related deaths in the 1957 H2N2 pandem- ic and 48% in the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (33). A sharper perspective emerges when 1918 age-specific influenza morbidity rates (21) are used to adj ust the W- shaped mortality curve (Figure 3, panels, A, B, and C [35,37]). Persons 65 years of age in 1918 had a dispro- portionately high influenza incidence (Figure 3, panel A). But even after adjusting age-specific deaths by age-specif— ic clinical attack rates (Figure 3, panel B), a W—shaped curve with a case-fatality peak in young adults remains and is significantly different from U-shaped age-specific case- fatality curves typically seen in other influenza years, e.g., 192871929 (Figure 3, panel C). Also, in 1918 those 5 to 14 years of age accounted for a disproportionate number of influenza cases, but had a much lower death rate from influenza and pneumonia than other age groups. To explain this pattern, we must look beyond properties of the Virus to host and environmental factors, possibly including immunopathology (e.g., antibody-dependent infection enhancement associated with prior Virus exposures [38]) and exposure to risk cofactors such as coinfecting agents, medications, and environmental agents. One theory that may partially explain these findings is that the 1918 Virus had an intrinsically high Virulence, tem- pered only in those patients who had been born before 1889, e.g., because of exposure to a then-circulating Virus capable of providing partial immunoprotection against the 1918 Virus strain only in persons old enough (>35 years) to have been infected during that prior era (35). But this the- ory would present an additional paradox: an obscure pre- cursor Virus that left no detectable trace today would have had to have appeared and disappeared before 1889 and then reappeared more than 3 decades later. Epidemiologic data on rates of clinical influenza by age, collected between 1900 and 1918, provide good evi- dence for the emergence of an antigenically novel influen- za Virus in 1918 (21). Jordan showed that from 1900 to 1917, the 5- to 15-year age group accounted for 11% of total influenza cases, while the >65-year age group accounted for 6 % of influenza cases. But in 1918, cases in Figure 2. “U-” and “W—” shaped combined influenza and pneumo- nia mortality, by age at death, per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, 1911—1918. Influenza- and pneumonia- specific death rates are plotted for the interpandemic years 1911—1917 (dashed line) and for the pandemic year 1918 (solid line) (33,34). Incidence male per 1 .nao persunslage group Mortality per 1.000 persunslige group + Case—fataiity rale 1918—1919 Case fatalily par 100 persons ill wilh P&I pel age group Figure 3. Influenza plus pneumonia (P&l) (combined) age-specific incidence rates per 1,000 persons per age group (panel A), death rates per 1,000 persons, ill and well combined (panel B), and case-fatality rates (panel C, solid line), US Public Health Service house-to-house surveys, 8 states, 1918 (36). A more typical curve of age-specific influenza case-fatality (panel C, dotted line) is taken from US Public Health Service surveys during 1928—1929 (37). the 5 to 15-year-old group jumped to 25% of influenza cases (compatible with exposure to an antigenically novel Virus strain), while the >65-year age group only accounted for 0.6% of the influenza cases, findings consistent with previously acquired protective immunity caused by an identical or closely related Viral protein to which older per- sons had once been exposed. Mortality data are in accord. In 1918, persons >75 years had lower influenza and pneumonia case-fatality rates than they had during the prepandemic period of 191171917. At the other end of the age spectrum (Figure 2), a high proportion of deaths in infancy and early childhood in 1918 mimics the age pat- tern, if not the mortality rate, of other influenza pandemics. Could a 1918-like Pandemic Appear Again? If So, What Could We Do About It? In its disease course and pathologic features, the 1918 pandemic was different in degree, but not in kind, from previous and subsequent pandemics. Despite the extraordi- nary number of global deaths, most influenza cases in 1918 (>95% in most locales in industrialized nations) were mild and essentially indistinguishable from influenza cases today. Furthermore, laboratory experiments with recombi- nant influenza Viruses containing genes from the 1918 Virus suggest that the 1918 and 1918-like Viruses would be as sensitive as other typical Virus strains to the Food and Drug Administrationiapproved antiinfluenza drugs riman- tadine and oseltamivir. However, some characteristics of the 1918 pandemic appear unique: most notably, death rates were 5 7 20 times higher than expected. Clinically and pathologically, these high death rates appear to be the result of several factors, including a higher proportion of severe and complicated infections of the respiratory tract, rather than involvement of organ systems outside the normal range of the influenza Virus. Also, the deaths were concentrated in an unusually young age group. Finally, in 1918, 3 separate recurrences of influenza followed each other with unusual rapidity, resulting in 3 explosive pandemic waves within a year’s time (Figure 1). Each of these unique characteristics may reflect genetic features of the 1918 Virus, but understand- ing them will also require examination of host and envi- ronmental factors. Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. Like the 1918 Virus, H5N1 is an avian Virus (39), though a distantly related one. The evolutionary path that led to pandemic emergence in 1918 is entirely unknown, but it appears to be different in many respects from the cur- rent situation with H5N1. There are no historical data, either in 1918 or in any other pandemic, for establishing that a pandemic “precursor” Virus caused a highly patho- genic outbreak in domestic poultry, and no highly patho- genic avian influenza (HPAI) Virus, including H5N1 and a number of others, has ever been known to cause a major human epidemic, let alone a pandemic. While data bearing on influenza Virus human cell adaptation (e.g., receptor binding) are beginning to be understood at the molecular level, the basis for Viral adaptation to efficient human-to- human spread, the chief prerequisite for pandemic emer- gence, is unknown for any influenza Virus. The 1918 Virus acquired this trait, but we do not know how, and we cur- rently have no way of knowing whether H5N1 Viruses are now in a parallel process of acquiring human-to-human transmissibility. Despite an explosion of data on the 1918 Virus during the past decade, we are not much closer to understanding pandemic emergence in 2006 than we were in understanding the risk of H1N1 “swine flu” emergence in 1976. Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pan- demic Virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the Virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic Virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths. Whether because of Viral, host or environmental fac- tors, the 1918 Virus causing the first or ‘spring’ wave was not associated with the exceptional pathogenicity of the second (fall) and third (winter) waves. Identification of an influenza RNA-positive case from the first wave could point to a genetic basis for Virulence by allowing differ- ences in Viral sequences to be highlighted. Identification of pre-1918 human influenza RNA samples would help us understand the timing of emergence of the 1918 Virus. Surveillance and genomic sequencing of large numbers of animal influenza Viruses will help us understand the genet- ic basis of host adaptation and the extent of the natural reservoir of influenza Viruses. Understanding influenza pandemics in general requires understanding the 1918 pan- demic in all its historical, epidemiologic, and biologic aspects. Dr Taubenberger is chair of the Department of Molecular Pathology at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland. His research interests include the molecular patho- physiology and evolution of influenza Viruses. 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Grove RD, Hetzel AM. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1940–1960. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1968. 34. Linder FE, Grove RD. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1900–1940. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1943. 35. Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis 1998;178:53–60. 36. Frost WH. The epidemiology of influenza. Public Health Rep. 1919;34:1823–61. 37. Collins SD. Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928-1929 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918–1919. Public Health Rep. 1931;46:1909–37. 38. Majde JA. Influenza: Learn from the past. ASM News. 1996;62:514. 39. Peiris JS, Yu WC, Leung CW, Cheung CY, Ng WF, Nicholls JM, et al. Re-emergence of fatal human influenza A subtype H5N1 disease. Lancet. 2004;363:617–9. Address for correspondence: Jeffery K. Taubenberger, Department of Molecular Pathology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, 1413 Research Blvd, Bldg 101, Rm 1057, Rockville, MD 20850-3125, USA; fax. 301-295-9507; email: taubenberger@afip.osd.mil The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated.

Is the molecular basis of human adaptation of a virus understood?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

Which may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV ?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

What is the median time to death in case of progressive illness?

Etiology of respiratory tract infections in the community and clinic in Ilorin, Nigeria https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5719735/ SHA: f2e835d2cde5f42054dbd0c20d4060721135c518 Authors: Kolawole, Olatunji; Oguntoye, Michael; Dam, Tina; Chunara, Rumi Date: 2017-12-07 DOI: 10.1186/s13104-017-3063-1 License: cc-by Abstract: OBJECTIVE: Recognizing increasing interest in community disease surveillance globally, the goal of this study was to investigate whether respiratory viruses circulating in the community may be represented through clinical (hospital) surveillance in Nigeria. RESULTS: Children were selected via convenience sampling from communities and a tertiary care center (n = 91) during spring 2017 in Ilorin, Nigeria. Nasal swabs were collected and tested using polymerase chain reaction. The majority (79.1%) of subjects were under 6 years old, of whom 46 were infected (63.9%). A total of 33 of the 91 subjects had one or more respiratory tract virus; there were 10 cases of triple infection and 5 of quadruple. Parainfluenza virus 4, respiratory syncytial virus B and enterovirus were the most common viruses in the clinical sample; present in 93.8% (15/16) of clinical subjects, and 6.7% (5/75) of community subjects (significant difference, p < 0.001). Coronavirus OC43 was the most common virus detected in community members (13.3%, 10/75). A different strain, Coronavirus OC 229 E/NL63 was detected among subjects from the clinic (2/16) and not detected in the community. This pilot study provides evidence that data from the community can potentially represent different information than that sourced clinically, suggesting the need for community surveillance to enhance public health efforts and scientific understanding of respiratory infections. Text: Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) (the cause of both upper respiratory tract infections (URIs) and lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs)) are a major cause of death among children under 5 years old particularly in developing countries where the burden of disease is 2-5 times higher than in developed countries [1] . While these viruses usually cause mild cold-like symptoms and can be self-limiting, in recent years novel coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have evolved and infected humans, causing severe illness, epidemics and pandemics [2] . Currently, the majority of all infectious disease outbreaks as recorded by the World Health Organization (WHO) occur in the continent of Africa where there is high transmission risk [3, 4] . Further, in developing areas (both rural and urban), there are increasing risk factors such as human-animal interfaces (due to residential-proximity to livestock). These changing epidemiological patterns have resulted in calls for improved ARI surveillance, especially in places of high transmission risk [5] . Nigeria is one such place with high prevalence of many of the risk factors implicated in ARI among children including; age, sex, overcrowding, nutritional status, socio-economic status, and where study of ARIs is currently limited [6] . These broad risk factors alongside limited resources have indicated the need for community-based initiatives for surveillance and interventions [6, 7] . For ARI surveillance in particular, infections in the community are those that do not get reported clinically. Clinical data generally represents the most severe cases, and those from locations with access to healthcare institutions. In Nigeria, hospitals are visited only when symptoms are very severe. Thus, it is hypothesized that viral information from clinical sampling is insufficient to either capture disease incidence in general populations or its predictability from symptoms [8] . Efforts worldwide including in East and Southern Africa have been focused on developing community-based participatory disease surveillance methods [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] . Community-based approaches have been shown useful for learning more about emerging respiratory infections such as assessing under-reporting [14] , types of viruses prevalent in communities [10] , and prediction of epidemics [15] . Concurrently, advancements in molecular identification methods have enabled studies regarding the emergence and epidemiology of ARI viruses in many locations (e.g. novel polyomaviruses in Australia [16, 17] , human coronavirus Erasmus Medical Center (HCoV-EMC) in the Middle East and United Kingdom [18, 19] , SARS in Canada and China [20] [21] [22] ), yet research regarding the molecular epidemiology of ARI viruses in Nigeria is limited. Diagnostic methods available and other constraints have limited studies there to serological surveys of only a few of these viruses and only in clinical populations [23, 24] . Thus, the utility of community-based surveillance may be appropriate in contexts such as in Nigeria, and the purpose of this pilot study was to investigate if clinical cases may describe the entire picture of ARI among children in Nigeria. We performed a cross-sectional study in three community centers and one clinical in Ilorin, Nigeria. Ilorin is in Kwara state and is the 6th largest city in Nigeria by population [25] . Three Local Government Areas (Ilorin East, Ilorin South and Ilorin West LGAs) were the community sites and Children's Specialist Hospital, Ilorin the clinical site. Convenience sampling was used for the purposes of this pilot study, and samples were obtained from March 28 to April 5 2017. Inclusion criteria were: children less than 14 years old who had visible symptoms of ARI within the communities or those confirmed at the hospital with ARI. Exclusion criteria were: children who were 14 and above, not showing signs of ARI and subjects whose parents did not give consent. Twenty-five children with symptoms were selected each from the three community locations while 16 symptomatic children were sampled from the hospital. The total sample size (n = 91) was arrived at based on materials and processing cost constraints, as well as to provide enough samples to enable descriptive understanding of viral circulation patterns estimated from other community-based studies [10] . Disease Surveillance and Notification Officers, who are employed by the State Ministry of Health and familiar with the communities in this study, performed specimen and data collection. Symptoms considered were derived in accordance with other ARI surveillance efforts: sore throat, fever, couch, running nose, vomiting, body ache, leg pain, nausea, chills, shortness of breath [10, 26] . Gender and age, type of residential area (rural/urban), education level, proximity of residence to livestock, proximity to an untarred road and number of people who sleep in same room, were all recorded. The general difference between the two settings was that those from the hospital had severe illnesses, while those from the community were generally "healthy" but exhibiting ARI symptoms (i.e. mild illness). Nasal swabs were collected from the subjects and stored in DNA/RNA shield (Zymo Research, Irvine, California). Collected samples were spinned and the swab removed. Residues containing the nasal samples were stored at -20 °C prior to molecular analysis. Viral RNA was isolated using ZR Viral RNA ™ Kit (Zymo Research, Irvine, California) per manufacturer instructions (http://www.zymoresearch.com/downloads/dl/file/ id/147/r1034i.pdf ). Real-time PCR (polymerase chain reaction), commonly used in ARI studies [10, 19, 27] , was then carried out using RV15 One Step ACE Detection Kit, catalogue numbers RV0716K01008007 and RV0717B01008001 (Seegene, Seoul, South Korea) for detection of 15 human viruses: parainfluenza virus 1, 2, 3 and 4 (PIV1-4), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, influenza A and B (FLUA, FLUB), rhinovirus type A-C, adenovirus (ADV), coronavirus (OC 229 E/NL63, OC43), enterovirus (HEV), metapneumovirus (hMPV) and bocavirus (BoV). Reagents were validated in the experimental location using an inbuilt validation protocol to confirm issues of false negative and false positive results were not of concern. Amplification reaction was carried out as described by the manufacturer: reverse transcription 50 °C-30′, initial activation 94°-15′, 45 cycles: denaturation 94°-30″, annealing 60°-1′ 30″, extension 72°-1, final extension 72°-10′, hold 4°. Visualization was performed using electrophoresis on a 2% agarose gel in TBE 1X with EtBr, in presence of RV15 OneStep A/B/C Markers; molecular weight marker. Specimen processing was not blinded as there was no risk of experimental bias. Standardized procedures were used for community and clinic sampling. All statistical analyses were performed using R version 3.2.4. Univariate statistics [mean and 95% confidence interval (CI)] are described. Bivariate statistics (difference in proportions) were assessed using a two-proportion z-test. A p value < 0.001 was considered significant. No observations used in this study had any missing data for analyses in this study. Basic participant demographics are summarized in PCR results showed that ten different viruses (influenza A, coronavirus OC 229 E/NL63, RSVA, RSV B, parainfluenza 1-4) were detected. Figure 1 shows how these infections were distributed across virus types as well as in the community versus clinic samples. In sum, a total of 33 of the 91 subjects surveyed had one or more respiratory tract virus (36.3%, 95% CI 26.6-47.0%, Fig. 1 ). Furthermore, 10 of those cases were triple infections and 5 were quadruple infections (illustrated by color of bars in Fig. 1 ). Figure 2 indicates how frequently each pair of viruses were found in the same participant; co-infections were most common among enterovirus and parainfluenza virus 4 (Fig. 2) . We also compared and contrasted the clinical and community results. Parainfluenza virus 4, respiratory syncytial virus B and enterovirus were the most common viruses found in the clinical sample. These three infections resulted in 41 viruses detected in 15 subjects clinically, and eight infections detected in five people in the community. Together they infected 94% (15/16, 95% CI 67.7-99.7%) of clinical subjects, and 7% (5/75, 95% CI 2.5-15.5%) in the community (significant difference, p < 0.001). The most common virus detected in community samples was Coronavirus OC43; this virus was detected in 13.3% (95% CI 6.9-23.6%) people in the community and not in any of the clinical samples. However a different strain, coronavirus OC 229 E/NL63 was detected in 12.5% of the clinical subjects (2/16, 95% CI 2.2-39.6%) and not detected in the community. Double, triple and quadruple infections were another common feature of note. We identified ten different respiratory tract viruses among the subjects as shown in Fig. 1 . Samples collected from the Children's specialist hospital showed 100% prevalence rate of infection with one or more viruses. This might not be surprising, as the basic difference between the community and clinic samples was an increased severity of illness in the clinical sample. This may also explain the high level of co-infection found among the clinical subjects. The most prevalent virus in the clinical sample (coronavirus OC43) was not detected in the community sample. Further, there was a significant difference between prevalence of the most common viruses in the clinical sample (parainfluenza virus 4, respiratory syncytial virus B and enterovirus) and their prevalence in the community. Finally, some of the viruses detected in this study have not been detected and implicated with ARIs in Nigeria. There is no report, to the best of our knowledge, implicating coronavirus in ARIs in Nigeria, and it was detected in 12 subjects in this study. Although cases of double and triple infections were observed in a study in Nigeria in 2011 [28] , as far as we are aware, reports of quadruple infections are rare and have not been reported in Nigeria previously. Due to the unique nature of the data generated in this study and novelty of work in the setting, it is not possible to exactly compare results to other studies. For example, though we found a similar study regarding ARIs in clinical subjects in Burkina Faso [27] , due to the small sample size from this study it would not be feasible to infer or compare prevalence rates. Studies of ARI etiology have mostly been generally focused in areas of the world that are more developed [29] , and it is important to note that the availability of molecular diagnostic methods as employed in this study substantially improve the ability to detect viruses which hitherto have not been detected in Nigeria. Further, findings from this work also add to the growing body of research that shows value of community-data in infectious disease surveillance [8] . As most of the work to-date has been in higher resource areas of the world this study adds perspective from an area where healthcare resources are lower. In conclusion, results of this study provide evidence for active community surveillance to enhance public health surveillance and scientific understanding of ARIs. This is not only because a minority of children with severe infection are admitted to the hospital in areas such this in Nigeria, but also findings from this pilot study which indicate that viral circulation in the community may not get detected clinically [29] . This pilot study indicates that in areas of Nigeria, etiology of ARIs ascertained from clinical samples may not represent all of the ARIs circulating in the community. The main limitation of the study is the sample size. In particular, the sample is not equally representative across all ages. However, the sample size was big enough to ascertain significant differences in community and clinic sourced viruses, and provides a qualitative understanding of viral etiology in samples from the community and clinic. Moreover, the sample was largely concentrated on subjects under 6 years, who are amongst the groups at highest risk of ARIs. Despite the small sample size, samples here indicate that circulation patterns in the community may differ from those in the clinic. In addition, this study resulted in unique findings Given that resources are limited for research and practice, we hope these pilot results may motivate further systematic investigations into how community-generated data can best be used in ARI surveillance. Results of this study can inform a larger study, representative across demographic and locations to systematically assess the etiology of infection and differences in clinical and community cohorts. A larger study will also enable accounting for potential confounders such as environmental risk factors. Finally, while it may be intuitive, findings from this pilot study shed light on the scope of differences in ARI patterns including different types and strains of circulating viruses. Also, because PCR was used for viral detection, the study was limited to detection of viruses in the primer sets. Given that these are the most up-to-date and common viruses, this approach was deemed sufficient for this initial investigation. The study was conceived by RC and OK. RC and OK, MO and TD were involved in the design of the study, which was conducted by MO and TD. RC and OK analyzed the data. RC and OK wrote and revised the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

What was the prevalence of Coronavirus OC43 in community samples in Ilorin, Nigeria?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

Where was the first known MERS human-to-human transmission event?

Emergent severe acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by adenovirus type 55 in immunocompetent adults in 2013: a prospective observational study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4243941/ SHA: f5b706d0529bfcf7e2d1dfc037df5b6f95fc5ec0 Authors: Sun, Bing; He, Hangyong; Wang, Zheng; Qu, Jiuxin; Li, Xuyan; Ban, Chengjun; Wan, Jun; Cao, Bin; Tong, Zhaohui; Wang, Chen Date: 2014-08-12 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-014-0456-6 License: cc-by Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Since 2008, severe cases of emerging human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55) in immunocompetent adults have been reported sporadically in China. The clinical features and outcomes of the most critically ill patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by HAdV-55 requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, single-center observational study of pneumonia with ARDS in immunocompetent adults admitted to our respiratory ICU. We prospectively collected and analyzed clinical, laboratory, radiological characteristics, sequential tests of viral load in respiratory tract and blood, treatments and outcomes. RESULTS: The results for a total of five consecutive patients with severe ARDS with confirmed HAdV-55 infection were included. All five patients were immunocompetent young men with a median age of 32 years. The mean time from onset to dyspnea was 5 days. Arterial blood gas analysis at ICU admission revealed profound hypoxia. Mean partial oxygen pressure/fraction of inspired oxygen was 58.1. Mean durations from onset to a single-lobe consolidation shown on chest X-rays (CXRs) and, from the first positive CXR to bilateral multilobar lung infiltrates, were 2 days and 4.8 days, respectively. The viral load was higher than 1 × 10(8) copies in three patients and was 1 × 10(4) in one patient. It was negative in the only patient who survived. The mean duration for noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) failure and IMV failure were 30.8 hours and 6.2 days, respectively. Four patients received venovenous ECMO. Four (80%) of the five patients died despite receiving appropriate respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: HAdV-55 may cause severe ARDS in immunocompetent young men. Persistent high fever, dyspnea and rapid progression to respiratory failure within 2 weeks, together with bilateral consolidations and infiltrates, are the most frequent clinical manifestations of HAdV-55-induced severe ARDS. Viral load monitoring may help predict disease severity and outcome. The NPPV and IMV failure rates were very high, but ECMO may still be the respiratory support therapy of choice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01585922. Registered 20 April 2012 Text: Human adenoviruses (HAdVs) are notorious pathogens in people with compromised immune function and a frequent cause of outbreaks of acute respiratory disease among young children. Life-threatening adenoviral pneumonia has previously been documented among military trainees, patients with AIDS and transplant recipients [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55), which is emerging as a highly virulent pathogen for acute fatal adenoviral pneumonia among immunocompetent adults in China, has gained increasing attention [6] . HAdV-55 is a newly identified, emergent acute respiratory disease pathogen causing two recent outbreaks in China in 2006 [7] and in Singapore in 2005 [8] . In 2011, this pathogen apparently re-emerged in Beijing, China, causing several cases of severe community-acquired pneumonia [9] . This pathogen was fully characterized by whole-genome sequencing [10] . Comparative studies showed that the ability of HAdV to cause severe disease may relate to the serotypes of HAdVs. Severe adenoviral pneumonia induced by HAdV-55 has been reported to be more closely related to severe cases compared to other serotypes (HAdV-3, HAdV-7 and HAdV-14) [6] . Current knowledge of HAdV-55-induced severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support in immunocompetent adults is derived from single case reports or relatively small, single-center series. As a result, little information is available on HAdV-55 pneumonia complicated with severe ARDS, the frequency of which is expected to increase in the coming years. Here we describe the clinical features and outcomes of five prospective cases of HAdV-55 pneumonia complicated with severe ARDS in immunocompetent adults in our ICU. Beginning in May 2012, a randomized trial of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) in ARDS patients was carried out in our center (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01585922). From May 2012 to April 2014, all adult patients with ARDS caused by pneumonia who were admitted to the respiratory ICU of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were prospectively enrolled. Severe ARDS was diagnosed according to the Berlin definition: (1) developing within 1 week of a known clinical insult or new or worsening respiratory symptoms; (2) bilateral opacities not fully explained by effusions, lobar and/or lung collapse, or nodules; (3) respiratory failure not fully explained by cardiac failure or fluid overload; (4) partial oxygen pressure/ fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO 2 /FiO 2 ) ≤100 mmHg with positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) ≥5 cmH 2 O; and (5) a chest radiograph with three or four quadrants with opacities. Patients with HAdV-55 infection and severe ARDS who failed conventional NPPV and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) were included in the analysis. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital (LLKYPJ2012031). Data were analyzed anonymously. Each patient gave written informed consent for their data to be used for research and publication. Clinical information collected by investigators with a standardized data form included the following: demographic characteristics (age and sex), comorbidities, clinical symptoms (fever, cough, sputum, dyspnea, chest pain, rash, nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, diarrhea and headache), signs (body temperature, heart rate, respiratory frequency, blood pressure and crackles in the lungs), laboratory tests (whole-blood cell count and blood chemistry) and microbiological findings and images of the lung (chest X-ray (CXR) and computed tomography). Concomitant medications, respiratory support, complications and outcomes were also recorded. Patients' specimens, including sputum, whole blood and serum samples, were collected upon admission and during hospitalization. Microbiological tests were performed at the Department of Infectious Disease and Clinical Microbiology in our center, and the detection methods used were described in our previous report [6] . Common viruses causing respiratory illness were screened using a kit with 15 different viral assays. Serum samples were used for Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydia pneumoniae and Legionella pneumophila antibodies. All patients had their HAdV-55 infection confirmed by RT-PCR assay. Partial sequences of the hexon gene were analyzed to type the phylogeny of HAdV-55 strains. The adenoviral load was also performed on both respiratory specimens and blood by multiplex RT-PCR assay. Viral pneumonia was diagnosed based on the presence of HAdV detected in sputum or throat swab samples by molecular methods. Continuous variables were summarized as mean ± standard deviation (SD) or median (interquartile range). During the study period, a total of eight patients diagnosed with HAdV infection and respiratory failure were admitted to our ICU, and seven of them received a diagnosis of ARDS. Five consecutive patients with severe ARDS with confirmed HAdV-55 infection were admitted to our ICU between April and July 2013. They were included in the analysis. The other two patients had mild ARDS and were infected with other types of HAdVs. All five patients were immunocompetent young men with a median age of 32 years (range, 28 to 40 years). All of the patients shared a B blood type and came from the same city: Baoding city, Hebei province, northern China. All patients had no exposure to farm animals, corn or hay. Patient 3 had tuberculosis pleuritis and received antituberculosis therapy at ICU admission. His blood tests, including the T-SPOT tuberculosis assay (Oxford Immunotec, Marlborough, MA, USA) and antibody of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, were negative. Flulike symptoms, such as fever, cough and little sputum, were commonly observed at the onset of illness. All patients presented with a high fever, with a mean body temperature of 39.5°C (range, 39.0°C to 40.0°C), which persisted for 8 days (range, 6 to 11 days). Productive cough was observed in two patients. Dull substernal chest pain and rash were also observed in two patients. All patients had dyspnea. The mean time from onset to dyspnea was 5 days (range, 1 to 10 days). After the onset of dyspnea, patients usually progressed to respiratory failure or hypoxemia. The mean time from onset to ICU admission was 9.6 days (range, 8 to 11 days) ( Table 1) . All patients had tachypnea when admitted to the ICU, with a mean rate of 43 breaths per minute (range = 38 to 52). Arterial blood gas analysis at ICU admission revealed profound hypoxia, with a mean PaO 2 /FiO 2 of 58.1 (range = 49 to 62.5). White blood cell counts were low or in the normal range. All patients had elevated serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH) ( Table 1) . At admission, all patients' levels of immunoglobulin (serum immunoglobulins G and M) and components C3 and C4 were in the normal range. Four patients had lower than normal T-cell subset counts (Table 2) . CXRs revealed multiple bilateral lobar or segment consolidation in the lungs of all five patients, and radiographic lesions progressed rapidly after ICU admission ( Figure 1 ). Three patients were examined by highresolution computed tomography (HRCT). Unilateral or bilateral consolidations and infiltrates were found on HRCT scans of all three of these patients. Consolidations within a single lobe or several lobes with a clear border and air bronchogram were the most common findings on HRCT scans. Nodules, patches, pleural effusion, abscess and a cavity were also seen visualized by HRCT (Figure 2 ). The mean duration from onset to a single-lobe consolidation on CXRs was 2 days (range = 1 to 5 days). The mean duration from the first positive CXR to bilaterally multilobar lung infiltrates was 4.8 days (range = 4 to 7 days). All patients had HAdV-55 viremia. In four of the five patients, it was first detected in endotracheal aspirate (ETA) samples. The time between initial ETA sample collection of adenoviruses and positive results for HAdV-55 nucleic acid in the blood was 1 to 10 days (Table 3) . Virus DNA copies in ETAs were determined for all patients during their ICU stay. The viral load was higher than 1 × 10 8 copies in three patients and 1 × 10 4 in one patient. The viral load became negative in the only patient who survived. In the four patients who did not survive, DNA copies did not decrease, even with antiviral therapy (Figure 3 ). Oxygenation was not maintained with conventional NPPV or IMV support in any of the patients. The mean duration until NPPV failure was 30.8 hours (range = 22 to 48 hours), and the mean time until IMV failure was 6.2 days (range 2 = to 13 days) ( Table 1) . Four patients received venovenous ECMO to maintain oxygen saturation, and one patient refused ECMO support and received high-frequency oscillatory ventilation instead. Table 4 gives the oxygenation data of patients before and after venovenous ECMO support. All patients received antiviral therapy, including acyclovir (10 mg/kg, every 8 hours, intravenous drip), ganciclovir (5 mg/kg, every 12 hours, intravenous drip) and ribavirin (250 mg, twice daily, intravenous drip). Considering that bacterial coinfection may combine with a severe viral infection, broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotics were given to all patients. Tests for bacterial pathogens were negative for only one patient (Table 3) . Four (80%) of the five patients died. Among the four patients receiving venovenous ECMO, only one patient survived. The other four patients died due to ARDS, Aspergillus fumigatus coinfection, septic shock and catheter-related bloodstream infection due to Acinetobacter baumannii, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first cohort observational study on the clinical characteristics of patients with severe ARDS caused by emergent HAdV-55 infection and also the first on the evaluation of a viral load test for monitoring the reaction to therapy and for prediction of patient outcome. The following are the main findings of this study. (1) HAdV-55 may cause severe ARDS in immunocompetent young men with blood type B. All of our patients were from the same city of Hebei province, northern China. (2) Persistent high fever, dyspnea and rapid progression to respiratory failure within 2 weeks, together with bilateral consolidations and infiltrates at the same time, are the most frequent clinical manifestations of severe HAdV-55induced ARDS. (3) Viral load monitoring may help predict disease severity and patient outcome. (4) The NPPV and IMV failure rates were very high, and ECMO may be the last support method for this group of patients. (5) HAdV-55-induced severe ARDS has a very high mortality rate (80%) despite appropriate respiratory support. Sporadic severe adenoviral infection in healthy adults has historically been described for serotype 4 [11] , serotype 7 [4, 12] and, more recently, serotype 14 in the general population and in military trainees [13, 14] . HAdV-55 was first completely characterized in Shaanxi, China [7] and then reemerged in Hebei, a province close to Beijing, where it caused several cases of acute respiratory disease [9] . It was presumed that HAdV-55 was a recombinant form of the B2 species of HAdV-14 and HAdV-11 [7, 15] due to its sharing a hexon gene with the HAdV-11 and HAdV-14 chassis [16] . The results of our study show that HAdV-55, as an emerging pathogen among immunocompetent adults, may cause severe ARDS. The prevalence of severe fatal adenoviral pneumonia induced by HAdV-55 in our study is somewhat similar to that described by Cao and colleagues [6] . All cases of reported HAdV-55 in our study were from the same city: Baoding, Hebei province, northern China. They occurred between April and July 2013, just partly overlapping or following the influenza epidemic. The patients with severe disease also came from the same region and were treated during a similar time period, which suggests that HAdV-55 may be an important viral pathogen derived from this region. Our study results suggest that the following may be clinical features of ARDS caused by HAdV-55: persistent high fever, rapid progression of dyspnea, need for mechanical ventilation support, elevated AST level and rapid progression from unilateral infiltrates to bilateral consolidations. These clinical features are highly similar to those of ARDS caused by other types of HAdV described in previous reports [6, 9] . Recent studies have shown that the immune system plays a crucial role in the clearance of HAdV viremia and survival of the host [17] . Chen et al. reported that, in the acute phase of HAdV-55 infection, patients with severe disease may have high levels of dendritic cells and Th17 cells [18] . In our study, the only patient who recovered from severe infection had higher T-cell counts. Three of the five patients had relatively low T-cell counts when admitted. Our results suggest that these three patients may have been relatively immunocompromised and that a lower T-cell count may be a risk factor for HAdV-55 infection in young adults. HAdV-55 DNA was previously reported in 41.2% of patients with severe infection [18] . In our study, HAdV-55 DNA was detected and monitored in all patients with severe ARDS. The initial, and trend of, viral load that presented as HAdV-55 DNA copies in the respiratory tract samples and blood may suggest the severity of infection and may predict both the reaction to therapy and patient outcome. The use of mechanical ventilation and ECMO in patients with ARDS caused by HAdV-55 has not been detailed in previous studies. In our cohort, we found that severe HAdV-55 infection could cause a rapid progression of respiratory failure, with a very high failure rate for NPPV and IMV. This failure rate may be a result of the large area of consolidation that induced a severe shunt in the lung, which may lead to lack of response to positive pressure ventilation. For patients with severe ARDS, ECMO should be considered a better choice for oxygenation. Our study has limitations. It is an observational study with no comparison group, so the difference between the severe and modest infections could not be clarified in terms of immune status, clinical features, radiological findings, viral load and treatment effects on respiratory support and antiviral therapy. Sequential dynamic analysis is needed to determine the relationship between HAdV-55 viremia and treatment response.

Does blood type play a role in the severity of human adenovirus type 55 (HAdV-55) infection?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

How does MERS-CoV spread among people?

Detectable 2019-nCoV viral RNA in blood is a strong indicator for the further clinical severity https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054964/ SHA: 77b0c98d1a2ca46b219ad090074814c387c80d8f Authors: Chen, Weilie; Lan, Yun; Yuan, Xiaozhen; Deng, Xilong; Li, Yueping; Cai, Xiaoli; Li, Liya; He, Ruiying; Tan, Yizhou; Deng, Xizi; Gao, Ming; Tang, Guofang; Zhao, Lingzhai; Wang, Jinlin; Fan, Qinghong; Wen, Chunyan; Tong, Yuwei; Tang, Yangbo; Hu, Fengyu; Li, Feng; Tang, Xiaoping Date: 2020-02-26 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1732837 License: cc-by Abstract: The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection caused pneumonia. we retrospectively analyzed the virus presence in the pharyngeal swab, blood, and the anal swab detected by real-time PCR in the clinical lab. Unexpectedly, the 2109-nCoV RNA was readily detected in the blood (6 of 57 patients) and the anal swabs (11 of 28 patients). Importantly, all of the 6 patients with detectable viral RNA in the blood cohort progressed to severe symptom stage, indicating a strong correlation of serum viral RNA with the disease severity (p-value = 0.0001). Meanwhile, 8 of the 11 patients with annal swab virus-positive was in severe clinical stage. However, the concentration of viral RNA in the anal swab (Ct value = 24 + 39) was higher than in the blood (Ct value = 34 + 39) from patient 2, suggesting that the virus might replicate in the digestive tract. Altogether, our results confirmed the presence of virus RNA in extra-pulmonary sites. Text: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), originally outbreaking from Wuhan China, has transmitted in an extremely short period to 25 countries and infected over 31 000 individuals as of Feb 06, 2020, causing an international alarm. Basic scientific research has achieved significantly in the investigation of viral origination [1, 2] , transmission and evolution [3] , and unprecedented public health control actions in China have been activated and effectively prevented the otherwise dramatic spread. The 2019-nCoV virus seems more infectious in its public transmission capacity compared to the well-known 2003 SARS virus in spite of the unavailability of convincingly scientific evidence. The mechanism of viral transmission is still worthy of further exploration. Currently, one urgent and critical challenge is to treat infected patients and save their lives. Several studies have roughly described the overall clinical features of 2019-nCoV patients [4, 5] . However, the more specific and classified clinical characteristics of the infected patients still require further investigation, particularly for those with severe symptoms, which is roughly estimated to be approximately 15-20 percent of totally confirmed cases based on the local data in our hospital. Clinically, for those severe patients, the main symptoms of 2019-nCoV pneumonia are fever, decreased white blood cell and lymphocyte count, increased C reaction protein and abnormally expressed cytokines [6] . One remaining question to be resolved is whether the 2019-nCoV virus can replicate in extra-pulmonary sites, which might account for the deteriorated clinical manifestation. In this study, we investigated whether the patients with severe clinical symptoms exhibited special profiles of virus replication or/and distribution compared to those only with mild symptoms. Patients, who were confirmed to be infected by the 2019-nCoV virus, were firstly enrolled in or transferred to Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital for treatment purposes. This study followed the guideline of the Ethics Committee of Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital. All blood, pharyngeal swab, and anal swab samples were collected for diagnostic purposes in the laboratory and our study added no extra burden to patients. Viral RNA was extracted with Nucleic Acid Isolation Kit (Da'an Gene Corporation, Cat: DA0630) on an automatic workstation Smart 32 (Da'an Gene Corporation) following the guidelines. Real-time reverse transcriptional polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) reagent (Da'an Gene cooperation, Cat DA0930) was employed for viral detection per the protocol. In brief, two PCR primer and probe sets, which target orf1ab (FAM reporter) and N (VIC reporter) genes separately, were added in the same reaction tube. Positive and negative controls were included for each batch of detection. Samples were considered to be viral positive when either or both set(s) gave a reliable signal(s). All patients had pneumonia-based diseases but with diversified clinical manifestation. To simplify data analysis, the patients were only classified as either mild or severe clinical symptom groups based on the guideline newly released by Chinese government. Patients who were with at least one of the following symptom should be diagnosed to be severe case, 1) distress of respiratory with respiratory rate > = 30/min; 2) Oxygen saturation < = 93% in the rest state, and 3) arterial oxygen tension (PaO₂) over inspiratory oxygen fraction (FIO₂) of less than 300 mm Hg. In the blood detection cohort (Figure 1 (A)), patients who had at less one serum sample measurement with the PCR method were included. In the 57, 6 cases were detected to be blood positive, all of them (100%) were severe in symptom requiring special care attention, and the blood of the rest 51 cases was without detectable virus in the blood, only 12 of them (23.5%) were severe cases. The ratio of severe symptoms between these two groups was significantly different (p value = 0.0001). In the anal swab cohort (Figure 1 (B)), 11 of 28 cases were detected to be anal swab positive, 8 of them (72.7%) were with severe symptoms, which was significantly higher than that 4 (23.5%) of the rest 17 cases without detectable virus in anal were severe cases. Fortunately, two cases with detectable virus both in blood and anal swab cohort were recorded. Patient 1 (Figure 2 (A)) was admitted to ICU after enrollment evaluation and was highly suspected infection with 2019-nCoV because of his recent travelling from Wuhan and of confirmed pneumonia by radiographic diagnosis with 5-day fever and 1-day continuous dry coughing. He was then confirmed to be infected by the 2019-nCoV virus on illness day 6 by CDC. High concentrations of the viral RNA were detected in the pharyngeal swabs on illness days 5 (Ct = 17 + 25), 7, 8 (Ct = 25 + 26), and 11 (Ct = 15 + 25). In the blood, no viral RNA was detected on day 5 but the sample on day 6 gave a weak positive signal (Ct = Neg+39), and then the signal was gone again on day 8. On day 9, a low level of viral RNA (Ct = 36 + 41) was detected again in the blood. On day 12, the blood lost signal again. A high concentration of virus RNA (Ct = 23 + 27) was detected in the anal sample on day 13, on the day the 2019-nCoV virus was not detected in the pharyngeal swab. Unfortunately, he was transferred out to another hospital after an emergency expert consultation. Patient 2 (Figure 2 (B)), who had a clear infection history and started fever 5-day ago and dry coughing 2-day ago, was admitted with clinically highly suspect of 2019-nCoV infection, considering the radiographical diagnosis which indicated clear pneumonia in the bilateral lung lobes. The virus was detected in his blood on illness day 7 (Ct = 34 + 36) and 8 (Ct = 38 + 38). His infection was also informed by the CDC on day 8. Because his disease advanced very fast, he was transferred to the ICU ward for special medical care requirements on day 9, on which day high titers of virus (Ct = 25 + 36) were detected in the pharyngeal sample. Importantly, virus RNA was detected in all pharyngeal (Ct = 23 + 24), blood (Ct = 34 + 39) and anal (Ct = 24 + 29) samples on day 10. He was transferred out to another hospital after an emergency expert consultation. Finally, we described here the four patients with detectable serum viral RNA. Patient 3 (Figure 3(A) ) was transferred to the ICU directly on illness day 11 because of his severe condition, the 2019-nCoV virus was laboratory detected both in pharyngeal (Ct = 30 + 30) and blood samples (Ct = 37 + 39) on day 12, And his infection was confirmed by CDC on day 13. Pharyngeal samples were PCR positive on days 14 and 17 and became negative on day 22. Patient 4 (Figure 3(B) ) was transferred to the ICU ward on the illness day 6 with a CDC confirmation. His disease advanced pretty fast and became severe on day 7 and he was transferred to ICU after his blood sample was detected to be virus-positive (Ct = 32 + 37). On day 9, he was transferred out. Patient 5 (Figure 3(C) ) was admitted on illness day 4 and his blood sample was virus-positive (Ct = 38 + Neg) on day 6. Her disease progressed rapidly to a severe stage within the next 3 days. Patient 6 ( Figure 3 (D)) with a clear history of virus infection was confirmed to be infected on infection day 7. Viral RNA was detected in his blood sample on day 9, one day ahead of his transfer into ICU. As his condition worsens, he was transferred out on day 13. In this retrospective study, we analyzed the PCR data of virus detection in different tissues in our laboratory. Firstly, our observation indicated that the presence of viral RNA outside of the respiratory tract might herald the severity of the disease and alarm the requirement of special care. In the blood test cohort, all the 6 infected patients were in (or later progressed to) severe disease stage when serum viral RNA became detectable, which showed a significant difference compared to the blood negative group (p = 0.0001). Patient 2 (Figure 2(B) ), 5 (Figure 3 (C)) and 6 ( Figure 3(D) ) all had detectable viral RNA in the serum before they progressed to the clinical severe symptom stage. Unfortunately, we missed the earlier time points of patient 1 (Figure 2(A) ) and 3 (Figure 3(A) ) who were directly admitted to ICU on transfer to our hospital because of severe condition, of patient 4 (Figure 3(B) ) who had serum sample collected one day post the diagnosis of severe illness. We, fortunately, observed high serum viral load in serum within their severe illness stage. In the anal swab cohort, we found that the presence of virus RNA in the anal digestive tract was also positively correlated with disease severity (p = 0.0102). The 3 patients detected with anal virus RNA but in mild stage should be monitored whether they will progress to the severe stage. We have summarized the information of approximately 70 percent of the patients in Guangzhou city, and the study represented nearly the whole picture of this region. However, the virus outbroke in such an emergence, allowing no delay in waiting for more patients to further confirm the findings. Secondly, a high concentration of viral RNA in anal swabs suggested the digestive tract might be one extrapulmonary site for virus replication. For patient 1, a high concentration of viral RNA (Ct = 23 + 27, on day 13) was detected in anal swab but not in pharyngeal (the same day) and blood (1 d ahead). For patient 2, higher concentrations of viral RNAs were detected in anal swab (Ct = 24 + 39) and pharyngeal swab (Ct = 23 + 24) than in the blood (Ct = 34 + 39) on the same day. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) still is one of the receptors for 2019-nCoV attachment and entry [2] . Intensive structural analysis of the S protein of 2019-nCoV with the SARS-Coronavirus suggested that several critical residues in the viral spike protein might confer favourable interaction with human ACE2 [7] . Of note, ACE2 is also abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the small intestine besides the respiratory tract and is ubiquitously present in endothelial cells [8] , which might provide possible routes of transmission, and might account for the high transmission capacity of the new virus. We propose that rampant coronavirus replication in pulmonary alveolus results in the breakdown of the alveolar vessel and the subsequent virus leakage into the blood flow, through which the virus is disseminated across the whole body. Then the virus succeeds in establishing reinfection in the digestive tract by using the highly expressed ACE2 receptor, which exacerbated the disease vice versa. Bat originated coronavirus was found to replicate in the swine digestive tract recently, also suggesting the potential replication possibility in the human digestive tract [9] . Nevertheless, confirmation of virus transmission through the digestive tract warrants further virus isolation from the anal swab in high safety level lab. Unfortunately, in our study, we did not collect stool samples from patients and did not pursue viral RNA in the stool. But we believe the existence of virus RNA in the stool samples from these patients because that a large amount of viral RNA was detected in anal swabs and that viral RNA had also been detected in a case reported from the United States [10] . Also, we didn't collect sputum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid for virus detection because that the dry coughing characteristic of patients infected with 2019-nCoV prevents producing enough amount of sputum and that bronchoalveolar lavage fluid collection requires a sophisticated operation which increases virus exposure possibility of care providers to high concentrations of virus-containing aerosol. In summary, we find that the presence of viral RNA in the blood and anal swab is positively correlated with the severe disease stage and that early monitoring of virus RNA in blood and the digestive tract on top of the respiratory tract might benefit the disease prediction.

What is the relationship between the presence of virus in anal swabs and disease severity in 2019-nCOV?

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068164/ SHA: ce358c18aac69fc83c7b2e9a7dca4a43b0f60e2e Authors: Spiteri, Gianfranco; Fielding, James; Diercke, Michaela; Campese, Christine; Enouf, Vincent; Gaymard, Alexandre; Bella, Antonino; Sognamiglio, Paola; Sierra Moros, Maria José; Riutort, Antonio Nicolau; Demina, Yulia V.; Mahieu, Romain; Broas, Markku; Bengnér, Malin; Buda, Silke; Schilling, Julia; Filleul, Laurent; Lepoutre, Agnès; Saura, Christine; Mailles, Alexandra; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Coignard, Bruno; Bernard-Stoecklin, Sibylle; Behillil, Sylvie; van der Werf, Sylvie; Valette, Martine; Lina, Bruno; Riccardo, Flavia; Nicastri, Emanuele; Casas, Inmaculada; Larrauri, Amparo; Salom Castell, Magdalena; Pozo, Francisco; Maksyutov, Rinat A.; Martin, Charlotte; Van Ranst, Marc; Bossuyt, Nathalie; Siira, Lotta; Sane, Jussi; Tegmark-Wisell, Karin; Palmérus, Maria; Broberg, Eeva K.; Beauté, Julien; Jorgensen, Pernille; Bundle, Nick; Pereyaslov, Dmitriy; Adlhoch, Cornelia; Pukkila, Jukka; Pebody, Richard; Olsen, Sonja; Ciancio, Bruno Christian Date: 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.9.2000178 License: cc-by Abstract: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters’ index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. Text: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. A cluster of pneumonia of unknown origin was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1] . On 12 January 2020, Chinese authorities shared the sequence of a novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from some clustered cases [2] . Since then, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID -19) . As at 21 February 2020, the virus had spread rapidly mostly within China but also to 28 other countries, including in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region [3] [4] [5] . Here we describe the epidemiology of the first cases of COVID-19 in this region, excluding cases reported in the United Kingdom (UK), as at 21 February 2020. The study includes a comparison between cases detected among travellers from China and cases whose infection was acquired due to subsequent local transmission. On 27 January 2020, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe asked countries to complete a WHO standard COVID-19 case report form for all confirmed and probable cases according to WHO criteria [6] [7] [8] . The overall aim of surveillance at this time was to support the global strategy of containment of COVID-19 with rapid identification and follow-up of cases linked to affected countries in order to minimise onward transmission. The surveillance objectives were to: describe the key epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected in Europe; inform country preparedness; and improve further case detection and management. Data collected included demographics, history of recent travel to affected areas, close contact with a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, underlying conditions, signs and symptoms of disease at onset, type of specimens from which the virus was detected, and clinical outcome. The WHO case definition was adopted for surveillance: a confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (ECDC recommended two separate SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests), irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms, whereas a probable case was a suspect case for whom testing for SARS-CoV-2 was inconclusive or positive using a pan-coronavirus assay [8] . By 31 January 2020, 47 laboratories in 31 countries, including 38 laboratories in 24 European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries, had diagnostic capability for SARS-CoV-2 available (close to 60% of countries in the WHO European Region), with cross-border shipment arrangements in place for many of those lacking domestic testing capacity. The remaining six EU/EEA countries were expected to have diagnostic testing available by mid-February [9] . As at 09:00 on 21 February 2020, 47 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the WHO European Region and one of these cases had died [4] . Data on 38 of these cases (i.e. all except the nine reported in the UK) are included in this analysis. The first three cases detected were reported in France on 24 January 2020 and had onset of symptoms on 17, 19 and 23 January respectively [10] . The first death was reported on 15 February in France. As at 21 February, nine countries had reported cases ( Figure) : Belgium (1), Finland (1), France (12), Germany (16), Italy (3), Russia (2), Spain (2), Sweden (1) and the UK (9 -not included further). The place of infection (assessed at national level based on an incubation period presumed to be up to 14 days [11] , travel history and contact with probable or confirmed cases as per the case definition) was reported for 35 cases (missing for three cases), of whom 14 were infected in China (Hubei province: 10 cases; Shandong province: one case; province not reported for three cases). The remaining 21 cases were infected in Europe. Of these, 14 were linked to a cluster in Bavaria, Germany, and seven to a cluster in Haute-Savoie, France [12, 13] . Cases from the Bavarian cluster were reported from Germany and Spain, whereas cases from the Haute-Savoie cluster were reported from France All but two cases were hospitalised (35 of 37 where information on hospitalisation was reported), although it is likely that most were hospitalised to isolate the person rather than because of severe disease. The time from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation (and isolation) ranged between 0 and 10 days with a mean of 3.7 days (reported for 29 cases). The mean number of days to hospitalisation was 2.5 days for cases imported from China, but 4.6 days for those infected in Europe. This was mostly a result of delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany. In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six took only a mean of 2 days to be hospitalised. Symptoms at the point of diagnosis were reported for 31 cases. Two cases were asymptomatic and remained so until tested negative. The asymptomatic cases were tested as part of screening following repatriation and during contact tracing respectively. Of the remaining 29, 20 reported fever, 14 reported cough and eight reported weakness. Additional symptoms reported included headaches (6 cases), sore throat (2), rhinorrhoea (2), shortness of breath (2), myalgia (1), diarrhoea (1) and nausea (1). Fever was reported as the sole symptom for nine cases. In 16 of 29 symptomatic cases, the symptoms at diagnosis were consistent with the case definition for acute respiratory infection [16] , although it is possible that cases presented additional symptoms after diagnosis and these were not reported. Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease. No data on clinical signs e.g. dyspnea etc. were reported for any of the 38 cases. All hospitalised cases had a benign clinical evolution except four, two reported in Italy and two reported in France, all of whom developed viral pneumonia. All three cases who were aged 65 years or over were admitted to intensive care and required respiratory support and one French case died. The case who died was hospitalised for 21 days and required intensive care and mechanical ventilation for 19 days. The duration of hospitalisation was reported for 16 cases with a median of 13 days (range: 8-23 days). As at 21 February 2020, four cases were still hospitalised. All cases were confirmed according to specific assays targeting at least two separate genes (envelope (E) gene as a screening test and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene or nucleoprotein (N) gene for confirmation) [8, 17] . The specimen types tested were reported for 27 cases: 15 had positive nasopharyngeal swabs, nine had positive throat swabs, three cases had positive sputum, two had a positive nasal swab, one case had a positive nasopharyngeal aspirate and one a positive endotracheal aspirate. As at 09:00 on 21 February, few COVID-19 cases had been detected in Europe compared with Asia. However the situation is rapidly developing, with a large outbreak recently identified in northern Italy, with transmission in several municipalities and at least two deaths [18] . As at 5 March 2020, there are 4,250 cases including 113 deaths reported among 38 countries in the WHO European region [19] . In our analysis of early cases, we observed transmission in two broad contexts: sporadic cases among travellers from China (14 cases) and cases who acquired infection due to subsequent local transmission in Europe (21 cases). Our analysis shows that the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation/case isolation was about 3 days longer for locally acquired cases than for imported cases. People returning from affected areas are likely to have a low threshold to seek care and be tested when symptomatic, however delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany meant that locally acquired cases took longer to be detected and isolated. Once the exposure is determined and contacts identified and quarantined (171 contacts in France and 200 in Germany for the clusters in Haute-Savoie and Bavaria, respectively), further cases are likely to be rapidly detected and isolated when they develop symptoms [15, 20] . In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six were hospitalised after a mean of 2 days. Locally acquired cases require significant resources for contact tracing and quarantine, and countries should be prepared to allocate considerable public health resources during the containment phase, should local clusters emerge in their population. In addition, prompt sharing of information on cases and contacts through international notification systems such as the International Health Regulations (IHR) mechanism and the European Commission's European Early Warning and Response System is essential to contain international spread of infection. All of the imported cases had a history of travel to China. This was consistent with the epidemiological situation in Asia, and supported the recommendation for testing of suspected cases with travel history to China and potentially other areas of presumed ongoing community transmission. The situation has evolved rapidly since then, however, and the number of countries reporting COVID-19 transmission increased rapidly, notably with a large outbreak in northern Italy with 3,089 cases reported as at 5 March [18, 19] . Testing of suspected cases based on geographical risk of importation needs to be complemented with additional approaches to ensure early detection of local circulation of COVID-19, including through testing of severe acute respiratory infections in hospitals irrespectively of travel history as recommended in the WHO case definition updated on 27 February 2020 [21] . The clinical presentation observed in the cases in Europe is that of an acute respiratory infection. However, of the 31 cases with information on symptoms, 20 cases presented with fever and nine cases presented only with fever and no other symptoms. These findings, which are consistent with other published case series, have prompted ECDC to include fever among several clinical signs or symptoms indicative for the suspected case definition. Three cases were aged 65 years or over. All required admission to intensive care and were tourists (imported cases). These findings could reflect the average older age of the tourist population compared with the local contacts exposed to infection in Europe and do not allow us to draw any conclusion on the proportion of severe cases that we could expect in the general population of Europe. Despite this, the finding of older individuals being at higher risk of a severe clinical course is consistent with the evidence from Chinese case series published so far although the majority of infections in China have been mild [22, 23] . This preliminary analysis is based on the first reported cases of COVID-19 cases in the WHO European Region. Given the small sample size, and limited completeness for some variables, all the results presented should be interpreted with caution. With increasing numbers of cases in Europe, data from surveillance and investigations in the region can build on the evidence from countries in Asia experiencing more widespread transmission particularly on disease spectrum and the proportion of infections with severe outcome [22] . Understanding the infection-severity is critical to help plan for the impact on the healthcare system and the wider population. Serological studies are vital to understand the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic. Hospital-based surveillance could help estimate the incidence of severe cases and identify risk factors for severity and death. Established hospital surveillance systems that are in place for influenza and other diseases in Europe may be expanded for this purpose. In addition, a number of countries in Europe are adapting and, in some cases, already using existing sentinel primary care based surveillance systems for influenza to detect community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This approach will be used globally to help identify evidence of widespread community transmission and, should the virus spread and containment no longer be deemed feasible, to monitor intensity of disease transmission, trends and its geographical spread. Additional research is needed to complement surveillance data to build knowledge on the infectious period, modes of transmission, basic and effective reproduction numbers, and effectiveness of prevention and case management options also in settings outside of China. Such special studies are being conducted globally, including a cohort study on citizens repatriated from China to Europe, with the aim to extrapolate disease incidence and risk factors for infection in areas with community transmission. Countries together with ECDC and WHO, should use all opportunities to address these questions in a coordinated fashion at the European and global level. provided input to the outline, multiple versions of the manuscript and gave approval to the final draft.

How many cases were there on 5 March?

SARS to novel coronavirus – old lessons and new lessons https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7026896/ SHA: 5d254ed178c092d3639ce70ae9653593acc471f9 Authors: McCloskey, Brian; Heymann, David L. Date: 2020-02-05 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820000254 License: cc-by Abstract: The response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China suggests that many of the lessons from the 2003 SARS epidemic have been implemented and the response improved as a consequence. Nevertheless some questions remain and not all lessons have been successful. The national and international response demonstrates the complex link between public health, science and politics when an outbreak threatens to impact on global economies and reputations. The unprecedented measures implemented in China are a bold attempt to control the outbreak – we need to understand their effectiveness to balance costs and benefits for similar events in the future. Text: On 29 December 2019 clinicians in a hospital in Wuhan City, China noticed a clustering of cases of unusual pneumonia (with the first case identified at that time on 12 December) with an apparent link to a market that sells live fish, poultry and animals to the public. This event was reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) on 31 December [1]. Within 4 weeks, by 26 January 2020, the causative organism had been identified as a novel coronavirus, the genome of the virus had been sequenced and published, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction tests had been developed, the WHO R&D Blueprint had been activated to accelerate diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccine development and a candidate vaccine was ready for initial laboratory testing. Currently Chinese health authorities are building a 1000 bed hospital in Wuhan in 10 days. By 26 January also, almost 50 million people in Wuhan and neighbouring cities had effectively been placed in quarantine while the WHO had determined that the event should not yet be declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) [2] and had recommended no specific travel restrictions. The WHO have emphasised the importance of exit screening at ports in countries showing transmission of the novel coronavirus and have provided guidance for countries implementing entry screening at airports while acknowledging that evidence for the effectiveness of entry screening is equivocal. This response is one of the swiftest, coordinated global responses to an emerging infectious disease the world has seen in modern times, but is it the appropriate response, will it be effective and is it sustainable? According to the situation report published by the WHO on 28 January 2020 [3], a total of 2798 confirmed 2019-nCoV cases have been reported globally; of these, 2761 cases were from China, including Hong Kong (8 cases), Macau (5) and Taipei (4). Thirty-seven confirmed cases have been reported outside of China in eleven countries in Europe, North America, Australia and Asia; of these 37 exported cases, 36 had a travel history from China or an epidemiological link to a case from China. Of the confirmed cases in China, 461 have been reported as severely ill, with 80 deaths to date. This outbreak and the response to it illustrate some key issues about how global preparedness and response capacity for outbreaks have evolved over almost two decades since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2002/3 and what lessons have, or have not, been learned. It also raises questions about the impact these lessons have had on the way agencies and governments respond to these events and about the role of the WHO and the International Health Regulations (IHR). One of the critical lessons from the SARS experience was the absolute necessity to be able to coordinate the international resources that are available in an outbreak and to get them focussed on identifying priorities and solving problems. The WHO established the means to do this for SARS and it has since been further developed and integrated into global preparedness, especially after the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Organisations such as the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), the Global Research Collaboration For Infectious Disease Preparedness (GloPID-R) and the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) have been supported by the WHO Research Blueprint and its Global Coordinating Mechanism to provide a forum where those with the expertise and capacity to contribute to managing new threats can come together both between and during outbreaks to develop innovative solutions to emerging problems. This global coordination has been active in the novel coronavirus outbreak. WHO's response system includes three virtual groups based on those developed for SARS to collate real time information to inform real time guidelines, and a first candidate vaccine is ready for laboratory testing within 4 weeks of the virus being identified. Another key factor in successfully preventing and managing emerging threats is the rapid and transparent sharing of information between countries and agencies. There was extensive criticism of China for its perceived failure to share information about the emerging SARS infection early enough in the outbreak to allow countries to prepare and respond. There were similar concerns about information sharing as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) emerged and evolved in the Middle East in 2012, particularly in Saudi Arabia, and about the emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014. On this occasion information sharing seems to have been rapid and effective (while recognising that the information available in the early stages of an outbreak is always less than the global community would like). The WHO was notified of the original clustering within days and the full genomic sequence of the new virus was published less than 2 weeks after the cluster was first detected. The WHO has expressed its satisfaction with the actions of the Chinese authorities in sharing information with the WHO. Working with journalists and the media to help them understand the science and epidemiology, particularly in a fast moving event, will improve risk communication to the public and reduce inappropriate concerns and panic. While reporting of this outbreak shows signs of the efforts of epidemiologists, infectious disease experts, national and international public health agencies and others engaging with journalists, there are also signs that this is not yet achieving it's goal. For example, the public perception is that the increase in case numbers reported daily by the Chinese authorities represents a daily escalation in the epidemic while the reality is that these numbers are also the result of active, aggressive, case finding in China and some of these cases are 'old' cases newly recognised as being due to the novel coronavirus. Similarly the virus is usually described by the media as 'deadly' and although this is true in the sense that it has caused deaths, the nuances of uncertain case fatality rates in the early stages of an outbreak are not being communicated. The current estimated case fatality rate seems to be around 3% which is significant but not comparable to the 10% rate for SARS or 34% reported for MERS. These misperceptions are still driving public anxiety. To supplement formal reporting mechanisms between countries and with WHO (including the IHR), the use of informal mechanisms such as media and social media reports was advocated in the light of the SARS experience. There are now globally several systems that provide collated information from informal reporting including networks of experts and scanning of media and social media. These contribute to, and amplify, epidemic intelligence and are being integrated with national and international surveillance systems. The value, and the challenges, of this additional source of information has been evident in the current outbreak. The value comes from ensuring that early indications of cases beyond the initial outbreak city have been detected and can supplement the global risk assessment and monitoring of the evolution of the outbreak. The challenges lie in the volume and diversity of the information available and the relative lack of verification mechanisms, such that one of these systems (ProMed) has commented that it was becoming increasingly difficult to assimilate the information being supplied [4] and to make meaningful interpretations. Early in the outbreak it was reported that health workers had not been infected. This was reassuring because it is health workers who many times, and inadvertently, amplify transmission. Failure to wash hands between patients, for example, can result not only in autoinfection, but also in infection of patients hospitalised for other causes when they provide care. Autoinfection is not only a risk for the health worker, but also for their families and the communities in which they live, depending on the transmissibility and means of transmission. More recently infection, and at least one death, in health workers has been confirmed. Although not unexpected this does add to the epidemiological risk. A characteristic of the SARS outbreak was the variability of transmissibility between cases and the occurrence of 'superspreading events' where a case infected significantly more contacts than the average. This was also seen with MERS in the outbreak in the Republic of Korea (RoK). In this current novel coronavirus outbreak, such superspreading events have not been documented but the epidemiology is still not clear. Confirming whether or not this is happening must be an urgent task for the Chinese investigation. Modellers have suggested reproductive rates (R 0 ) of 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0) [5] and 2.6 (1.5-3.5) [6] ; R 0 for SARS was estimated at around 3 in the absence of control measures [7] . The economic impact of major outbreaks can be substantial for the affected country. This was seen clearly in SARS, MERS in RoK and Ebola in West Africa. One analyst estimates that the current coronavirus outbreak's likely impact will range from a 0.8% cut to real GDP if the epidemic is controlled within 3 months, to a 1.9% cost to GDP if the epidemic lasts 9 months [8] . This may increase substantially in the light of the extended restrictions on movement, and therefore trade and commerce, within China. The emergence of a significant respiratory illness linked to a novel coronavirus represents a test of the global capacity to detect and mange emerging disease threats. Its emergence in China adds an additional dimension in the light of previous experience with SARS. The timing of the outbreak immediately before the Chinese Lunar New Year with its attendant population movements adds extra risk and urgency to the response. The rapid sharing of information in this outbreak and the speed of the coordinated response both in the country and internationally suggest that lessons have been learned from SARS that improve global capacity. The international networks and forums that now exist have facilitated the bringing together of expertise from around the world to focus research and development efforts and maximise the impact. At this early stage in the outbreak information remains incomplete and key clinical and epidemiological questions have not yet been answered, but the deficit seems to be due more to the constraints of investigating an emerging disease than to any unwillingness to engage and share information with partners. There are some indications of areas where further improvement is necessary. The global media response to the unfolding events has been relatively balanced and informed but the nuances of the evolving situation have not been critically examined in partnership with the media and as a result the public perception of the risk may be exaggeratedalthough it of course remains possible that the outbreak will develop in a way that matches up to the perceived risk. The lack of appreciation of the uncertainties in determining a meaningful case fatality rate and the significance of ascertainment bias at the beginning of an outbreak, along with the impact of aggressive case finding on case numbers, are examples of where understanding could be improved. This is always a challenging process when balancing the resources focussed on analysing the situation on the ground with resources directed at interpreting the information for journalists but in SARS, the R 0 was seen to decrease in response to information reaching the public and the public then adopting risk reduction actions [6] ; so accurate public risk communication is critical to success. It would be helpful to find a forum where this can be explored with the media community after the event. The increase in access to early information from diverse sources including media and social media adds an important dimension to identifying and tracking new events globally and is a key part of the overall epidemic intelligence system. However, it is also a potential source of disinformation. When, as has been seen in this outbreak, the volume of information coming in exceeds any capacity to collate and analyse it and to attempt to cross-reference and verify separate items, there is a risk that the information fuels speculation and media and public concern. Again there is a fine balance between information that encourages appropriate risk avoidance actions and information that encourages inappropriate actions; however the public health is usually better served by more information rather than less. The role of a declaration of a PHEIC in managing a serious outbreak has been questioned in the light of Ebola in West Africa and in the Democratic Republic of Congo [9] and has been challenged again with this outbreak. The binary nature of a PHEIC declaration (either an event is a PHEIC or it isn'tthere are no intermediate options) and the specificity of the three defined criteria for a PHEIC have caused difficulty for Emergency Committees in considering whether a given event should be a PHEIC. The lack of a clear understanding of what a PHEIC declaration is meant to achieve adds to the Emergency Committee's difficulties, as does the relative paucity of clinical and epidemiological answers at this stage of the investigation. In this instance the Emergency Committee were divided in coming to a conclusion but decided on balance that the current situation, although an emergency, should not as yet be declared a PHEIC [2]. As with Ebola in the DRC, there has been criticism of the WHO for this decision but, as with Ebola, it is not immediately clear what would be different in the response if a PHEIC was declared. The WHO is working on improving the way in which Emergency Committees develop their advice for the Director General but, as recommended by this Emergency Committee and the post-Ebola IHR Review Committee in 2015, the development of an intermediate alert alongside WHO's risk assessment process may be helpful. A key function of a PHEIC declaration is that it is the (only) gateway to the WHO Temporary Recommendations on possible travel and trade restrictions to limit international spread of a disease. In this case several countries globally had already implemented entry screening at airports and China had begun closing down international travel from Wuhan before the Emergency Committee had finished their deliberations. While the WHO would not, and could not, interfere with the sovereign decisions of member states, the lack of influence on travel and trade decisions could prove problematic. Alongside the speed of the response in this outbreak, we have seen dramatic changes in the scale of the response. The imposition of very extensive quarantine measures on millions of people as an attempt to break the transmission of the virus is unprecedented. We do not know whether they will be effective; indeed we do not know how we will determine if they have been effectivewhat end point can we measure that will provide an answer to that question? If recent suggestions that people infected with this coronavirus may be infectious while incubating or asymptomatic, and the reports that up to 5 m people left Wuhan before the travel restrictions were imposed, are confirmed, the efficacy of these control measures will be more challenged. Given the likely impact on at least the Chinese economy and probably the global economy, it will be important to understand the role and the effectiveness of public health measures on this scale for the future. However, the imposition of these dramatic measures does also raise a wider question: if there is an impact from these measures, what other countries would (or could) implement such measures? Would other countries accept the self-imposed economic damage that China has accepted to try and contain this outbreak? Is it reasonable to consider that national governments would close down public transport into and out of London, New York or Paris in the week before Christmas even if it were shown to be an effective control measure? These decisions and questions cross the interface between public health, science and politics. The response to this outbreak in China was inevitably influenced by the historical reaction to the country's response to SARS and the world's suspicion of China's lack of cooperation at that time. The current response is therefore framed within a context of not wanting to be seen to be behaving in the same way with this event. This may indicate another impact of the SARS (and MERS and Ebola) experience on the response to subsequent outbreaksa tendency to look at worst case scenarios and respond accordingly and a fear of 'getting it wrong'. This can deter leaders at all levels, from outbreak teams to national governments, from making judgements when all the information they would like is not available in case those judgments turn out to be wrong when the full information becomes available. In emergency response it is generally better to over-react and then scale back if necessary rather than under-react and then act too late. Response should be on a 'no regrets' basismake the best decisions possible on the basis of the best information and science available at the time but do not judge or criticise if later information suggests a different course of action. The early response must recognise what is known and what is not known and look at what of the unknowns can reasonably be estimated by reference to previous outbreaks, similar pathogens, early reporting and modelling, etc. The risk assessment and response can then be modified and refined as information on the unknowns evolves. Key to that approach, however, is confidence that decisions will not be criticised based on information that was not available at the time. It is also important to be ready to change decisions when the available information changessomething that both scientists and politicians can find difficult. In that context, China should not be judged for implementing what might appear to be extreme measures but China should also be prepared to discontinue the measures quickly if evidence suggests they are not the best way to solve the problem. By closing airports the international spread from Wuhan may be decreased, but success will depend on how effective the measures really are at stopping people moving out of the affected area as well as on the behaviour of the virus. As always, only time will tellbut time is scarce.

When did we discover that SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, was a novel coronavirus?

Functional Genetic Variants in DC-SIGNR Are Associated with Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV-1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2752805/ Boily-Larouche, Geneviève; Iscache, Anne-Laure; Zijenah, Lynn S.; Humphrey, Jean H.; Mouland, Andrew J.; Ward, Brian J.; Roger, Michel 2009-10-07 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0007211 License:cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is the main cause of HIV-1 infection in children worldwide. Given that the C-type lectin receptor, dendritic cell-specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin-related (DC-SIGNR, also known as CD209L or liver/lymph node–specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin (L-SIGN)), can interact with pathogens including HIV-1 and is expressed at the maternal-fetal interface, we hypothesized that it could influence MTCT of HIV-1. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To investigate the potential role of DC-SIGNR in MTCT of HIV-1, we carried out a genetic association study of DC-SIGNR in a well-characterized cohort of 197 HIV-infected mothers and their infants recruited in Harare, Zimbabwe. Infants harbouring two copies of DC-SIGNR H1 and/or H3 haplotypes (H1-H1, H1-H3, H3-H3) had a 3.6-fold increased risk of in utero (IU) (P = 0.013) HIV-1 infection and a 5.7-fold increased risk of intrapartum (IP) (P = 0.025) HIV-1 infection after adjusting for a number of maternal factors. The implicated H1 and H3 haplotypes share two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in promoter region (p-198A) and intron 2 (int2-180A) that were associated with increased risk of both IU (P = 0.045 and P = 0.003, respectively) and IP (P = 0.025, for int2-180A) HIV-1 infection. The promoter variant reduced transcriptional activity in vitro. In homozygous H1 infants bearing both the p-198A and int2-180A mutations, we observed a 4-fold decrease in the level of placental DC-SIGNR transcripts, disproportionately affecting the expression of membrane-bound isoforms compared to infant noncarriers (P = 0.011). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that DC-SIGNR plays a crucial role in MTCT of HIV-1 and that impaired placental DC-SIGNR expression increases risk of transmission. Text: Without specific interventions, the rate of HIV-1 mother-tochild transmission (MTCT) is approximately 15-45% [1] . UNAIDS estimates that last year alone, more than 400,000 children were infected worldwide, mostly through MTCT and 90% of them lived in sub-Saharan Africa. In the most heavilyaffected countries, such as Zimbabwe, HIV-1 is responsible for one third of all deaths among children under the age of five. MTCT of HIV-1 can occur during pregnancy (in utero, IU), delivery (intrapartum, IP) or breastfeeding (postpartum, PP). High maternal viral load, low CD4 cells count, vaginal delivery, low gestational age have all been identified as independent factors associated with MTCT of HIV-1 [1] . Although antiretrovirals can reduce MTCT to 2%, limited access to timely diagnostics and drugs in many developing world countries limits the potential impact of this strategy. A better understanding of the mechanisms acting at the maternal-fetal interface is crucial for the design of alternative interventions to antiretroviral therapy for transmission prevention. Dendritic cell-specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin-related (DC-SIGNR, also known as CD209L or liver/lymph node-specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin (L-SIGN)) can interact with a plethora of pathogens including HIV-1 and is expressed in placental capillary endothelial cells [2] . DC-SIGNR is organized in three distinct domains, an N-terminal cytoplasmic tail, a repeat region containing seven repeat of 23 amino acids and a C-terminal domain implicated in pathogen binding. Alternative splicing of DC-SIGNR gene leads to the production of a highly diversify isoforms repertoire which includes membrane-bound and soluble isoforms [3] . It has been proposed that interaction between DC-SIGNR and HIV-1 might enhance viral transfer to other susceptible cell types [2] but DC-SIGNR can also internalize and mediate proteasome-dependant degradation of viruses [4] that may differently affect the outcome of infection. Given the presence of DC-SIGNR at the maternal-fetal interface and its interaction with HIV-1, we hypothesized that it could influence MTCT of HIV-1. To investigate the potential role of DC-SIGNR in MTCT of HIV-1, we carried out a genetic association study of DC-SIGNR in a well-characterized cohort of HIV-infected mothers and their infants recruited in Zimbabwe, and identified specific DC-SIGNR variants associated with increased risks of HIV transmission. We further characterized the functional impact of these genetic variants on DC-SIGNR expression and show that they affect both the level and type of DC-SIGNR transcripts produced in the placenta. Samples consisted of stored DNA extracts obtained from 197 mother-child pairs co-enrolled immediately postpartum in the ZVITAMBO Vitamin A supplementation trial (Harare, Zimbabwe) and followed at 6 weeks, and 3-monthly intervals up to 24 months. The ZVITAMBO project was a randomized placebocontrolled clinical trial that enrolled 14,110 mother-child pairs, between November 1997 and January 2000, with the main objective of investigating the impact of immediate postpartum vitamin A supplementation on MTCT of HIV-1. The samples used in the present study were from mother-child pairs randomly assigned to the placebo group of the ZVITAMBO project. Antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-1-positive antenatal women was not available in the Harare public-sector during ZVITAMBO patient recruitment. The samples were consecutively drawn from two groups: 97 HIV-1-positive mother/HIV-1-positive child pairs and 100 HIV-1-positive mother/HIV-negative child pairs. Mother's serological status was determined by ELISA and confirmed by Western Blot. Infants were considered to be infected if they were HIV-1 seropositive at 18 months or older and had two or more positive HIV-1-DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results at earlier ages. 100 infants were considered to be uninfected as they were ELISA negative at 18 months or older and had two DNA PCR negative results from samples collected at a younger age. Of the 97 HIV-1-infected infants, 57 were infected IU, 11 were infected IP, and 17 were infected PP as determined by PCR analyses of blood samples collected at birth, 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months of age and according to the following definitions adapted from Bryson and colleagues [5] . Briefly, infants who were DNA PCR positive at birth were infected IU. Infants with negative PCR results from sample obtained at birth but who become positive by 6 weeks of age were infected IP. Infants with negative PCR results at birth and 6 weeks of age but who subsequently became DNA PCR positive were considered to be infected during the PP period. In the analysis comparing the 3 different modes of MTCT, 12 HIV-1-infected infants were excluded because the PCR results were not available at 6 weeks of age. Full methods for recruitment, baseline characteristics collection, laboratory procedures have been described elsewhere [6] . The nucleotide sequence variation of the entire promoter, coding and part of 39-UTR regions of DC-SIGNR gene in the study population was determined previously [7] . Haplotype reconstruction was performed using Bayesian statistical method implemented in PHASE [8] , version 2.1.1, using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with a minimum allele frequency (MAF) of 2%. We applied the algorithm five times, using different randomly generated seeds, and consistent results were obtained across runs ( Figure 1 ). Fifteen haplotype-tagged SNPs (htSNPs) were identified by the HaploBlockFinder software [9] with a MAF $5%. These htSNPs were genotyped in the 197 infants by direct PCR sequencing analysis as we have described previously [7] . The DC-SIGNR exon 4 repeat region genotype was determined by PCR amplification followed by migration in 1.5% agarose gels [10] . DNA sequences in the promoter region were analysed with the TESS interface (http//:www.cbil.upenn.edu/tess) for putative transcription factors binding sites using the TRANSFAC database. Luciferase reporter assays using pGL2-Basic vector were performed in order to investigate the functional effect of mutations on DC-SIGNR promoter activity. Genomic DNA from subjects homozygous for the promoter variants and WT was amplified from nucleotide position 2715 to 21 and cloned between the BglII and HindIII multiple cloning sites in the pGL2-Basic vector which harbours a reporter firefly luciferase gene downstream (Invitrogen Canada inc, Burlington, Canada). All recombinants clones were verified by DNA sequencing. The firefly luciferase test reporter vector was co-transfected at a ratio of 10:1 with the constitutive expressor of Renilla luciferase, phRL-CMV (Promega, Madison, WI, USA). We cultured HeLa cells in 6 wells plates (2610 5 cells) and transfected them the following day using lipofectamine (Invitrogen) according to the manufacturer. Cells were lysed and luciferase assays were performed using 20 mg of protein extract according to the manufacturer (Promega) at 44 h post-transfection. Firefly luciferase activity was normalized to Renilla luciferase activity. 0 mg, 0,5 mg or 1 mg CMV-Tat vector was transfected with LTR-Luc as a positive control in these experiments. We carried out lucierase assays in triplicate in three independent experiments. Results are expressed as mean6 standard error of the mean (S.E.M). First-term placental tissues were obtained from abortions following voluntary interruption of pregnancy at CHUM Hôpital Saint-Luc (Montreal, Canada). Tissues from 3 H1 (associated with MTCT of HIV-1) and 3 H15 (wild-type) homozygous haplotypes were used to analyse possible differences in isoform expression. Total placental RNAs were extracted by MasterPure DNA and RNA Extraction Kit (Epicentre Biotechnologies, Madison, WI, USA) according to the manufacturer. Fragments corresponding to the DC-SIGNR coding region were reversed transcribed (RT) and then amplified by nested PCR with the following primers; RT primers RR, first PCR RF and RR and second PCR RcF and RcR according to Liu and colleagues [11] . 1 mg of total RNA was reverse transcribed with Expand RT (Roche Applied Science, Indianapolis, IN, USA) according to the manufacturer and were PCR-amplified with DNA Platinum Taq Polymerase (Invitrogen). Major PCR products from the second PCR reaction were gel extracted with the Qiagen Gel Extraction Kit (Qiagen Canada inc, Mississauga, ON, Canada) and cloned using the TOPO TA Cloning Kit for sequencing (Invitrogen). For each placenta, 15 different clones were randomly selected and amplified with M13 primers and sequenced with ABI PRISM 3100 capillary automated sequencer (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). Sequences were analysed and aligned with GeneBank reference sequence NM_014257 using Lasergene software (DNA Stars, Madison, WI, USA). Quantitative expression of DC-SIGNR isoforms 1,5 mg of placental RNA was reverse transcribed using 2.5 mM of Oligo dT 20 and Expand RT in 20 ml volume according to the manufacturer (Roche Applied Science). 15 ng of total cDNA in a final volume of 20 ml was used to perform quantitative real-time PCR using Universal Express SYBR GreenER qPCR Supermix (Invitrogen) on a Rotor Gene Realtime Rotary Analyser (Corbett Life Science, Sydney, Australia). Samples from 2 subjects in each group were used because RNA quality of others was not suitable for a qRT-PCR analysis. Amplification of all DC-SIGNR isoforms was performed using an exon 5 specific primer pair (Table S1 ). Membrane-bound isoforms were amplified using primers specific for exon 3, corresponding to the common trans-membrane domain of DC-SIGNR. Primers were targeted to the exon-exon junction and RNA extracts were treated with DNase (Fermantas International inc, Burlington, ON, Canada) to avoid amplification of contaminant DNA. Standard curves (50-500 000 copies per reaction) were generated using serial dilution of a full-length DC-SIGNR or commercial GAPDH (Invitrogen) plasmid DNA. All qPCR reactions had efficiencies ranging from 99% to 100%, even in the presence of 20 ng of non-specific nucleic acids, and therefore could be compared. The copy number of unknown samples was estimated by placing the measured PCR cycle number (crossing threshold) on the standard curve. To correct for differences in both RNA quality and quantity between samples, the expression levels of transcripts were normalised to the reference GAPDH gene transcripts. GAPDH primer sequences were kindly provided by A. Mes-Masson at the CHUM. The results are presented as target gene copy number per 10 5 copies of GAPDH. The ratio of membrane-bound isoforms was calculated as E3/E5. Soluble isoforms were calculated by subtracting membrane-bound from total isoforms. We carried out qPCR assays in triplicate in three independent experiments. Results are expressed as mean6S.E.M. Statistical analysis was performed using the GraphPad PRISM 5.0 for Windows (GraphPad Software inc, San Diego, CA, USA). Differences in baseline characteristics and genotypic frequencies of haplotypes or htSNPs were compared between groups using the x 2 analysis or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for each genotype and baseline risk factors. Multiple logistic regression was used to define independent predictors identified as significant in the crude analysis. ORs and 95% confidence interval were calculated with the exact method. Comparisons of continuous variables between groups were assessed with the unpaired two-tailed Student's t test when variables were normally distributed and with the Mann-Whitney U test when otherwise. Differences were considered significant at P,0.05. Written informed consent was obtained from all mothers who participated in the study and the ZVITAMBO trial and the investigation reported in this paper were approved by The We carried out an association study of DC-SIGNR polymorphism in 197 infants born to untreated HIV-1-infected mothers recruited in Harare, Zimbabwe. Among them, 97 infants were HIV-1-infected and 100 infants remained uninfected. Of the 97 HIV-1-infected infants, 57 were infected IU, 11 were infected IP, and 17 were infected PP. Timing of infection was not determined for 12 HIV-1-infected infants. Baseline characteristics of mothers and infants are presented in Table 1 . Maternal age and CD4 cell count, child sex, mode of delivery, duration of membrane rupture and gestational age were similar among all groups. However, maternal viral load .29 000 copies/ml was associated with increased risk in both IU and PP with odds ratios (OR) of 3.64 (95% CI = 1.82-7.31, P = 0.0002) and 4.45 (95% CI = 1.50-13.2, P = 0.0045) for HIV-1 transmission, respectively. Fifteen haplotype-tagged SNPs (htSNPs) corresponding to the 15 major DC-SIGNR haplotypes ( Figure 1 ) described among Zimbabweans [7] were genotyped in our study samples (Tables S2 and S3 ). H1 (31%) and H3 (11%) were the most frequent haplotypes observed (Figure 1 ). Being homozygous for the H1 haplotype was associated with increased risk of both IU (OR: 4.42, P = 0.022) and PP (OR: 7.31, P = 0.016) HIV-1 transmission ( Table 2) . Infants harbouring two copy combinations of H1 and/ or H3 haplotypes (H1-H1, H1-H3 or H3-H3) had increased risk of IU (OR: 3.42, P = 0.007) and IP (OR: 5.71, P = 0.025) but not PP (P = 0.098) HIV-1 infection compared to infant noncarriers ( Table 2 ). The latter associations remained significant after adjustment was made for the maternal viral load for both IU (OR: 3.57, 95% CI = 1.30-9.82, P = 0.013) and IP (OR: 5.71, 95% CI = 1.40-23.3, P = 0.025) HIV-1 transmission. The H1 and H3 haplotypes share a cluster of mutations (p-198A, int2-391C, int2-180A, ex4RPT, int5+7C) ( Figure 1 ). Of these, the p-198A and int2-180A variants were significantly associated with MTCT of HIV-1 (Table S2 ). In the unadjusted regression analysis, homozygous infants for the p-198A and int2-180A variants had increased risk of IU (OR: 2.07 P = 0.045, OR: 3.78, P = 0.003, respectively) and IP (OR: 2.47, P = 0.17, O.R: 5.71, P = 0.025, respectively) HIV-1 infection compared to heterozygote infants or noncarriers (Table 3) . When adjustment was made for maternal factors, only the association with the int2-180A variant remained significant for IU (OR: 3.83, 95% CI = 1.42-10.4, P = 0.008) and IP (O.R: 5.71, 95% CI = 1.40-23.3, P = 0.025) HIV-1 transmission. Thus, infants homozygous for DC-SIGNR variant int2-180A contained in H1 and H3 haplotypes were 4-fold to 6-fold more likely to be infected by HIV-1 during pregnancy or at delivery, respectively. Alternative splicing of the DC-SIGNR gene in the placenta produces both membrane-bound and soluble isoform repertoires [3] . The relative proportion of membrane bound and soluble DC-SIGNR could plausibly influence the susceptibility to HIV-1 infection [11] . We therefore hypothesized that the DC-SIGNR mutations associated with MTCT of HIV-1 would have an impact on both the level of DC-SIGNR expression and in the isoform repertoire produced. We investigated DC-SIGNR transcript expression in first-term placentas obtained after elective abortion. We cloned DC-SIGNR from placental tissues by RT-PCR from 3 homozygous H1 samples containing both the DC-SIGNR p-198AA and int2-180AA variants associated with HIV-1 transmission and 3 homozygous wild-type (WT) (p-198CC, int2-180GG) samples. Fifteen clones per sample were randomly selected for sequencing. As expected, we found an extensive repertoire of DC-SIGNR transcripts in all samples with 9 to 16 different isoforms per individual. A total of 65 distinct transcripts were identified ( Figure S1 ), of which 3 were full-length transcripts. 64 of the sequenced clones contained a total of 69 amino acid substitutions with 3 new C termini and 2 premature stop codons. However, the diversity was mostly attributable to the entire deletion of exon 2 or exon 3 or to variations in the length of the neck region (exon 4) of DC-SIGNR. The deletion of exon 3 eliminates the trans-membrane domain of the protein and leads to the expression of soluble DC-SIGNR isoforms [3] . Interestingly, the abundance of membrane-bound isoforms in placental tissues of the H1 homozygotes appears to be lower than that observed in samples from WT individuals ( Figure S1 ). The deletion of exon 3 was confirmed by sequencing and we hypothesize that the skipping of exon 3, could be due to the presence of the int2-180A mutation observed in infants with the H1 haplotype. In fact, this intron mutation is located 180 bp downstream from exon 3 and potentially modifies splicing events (Figure 2A ). We confirmed that the variation in transcript proportions seen between the two groups was also reflected at the level of mRNA expression in the placenta. To quantify membrane-bound vs soluble isoforms in placental samples from homozygous H1 and WT infants, we amplified the exon 5 (E5) sequence present in all DC-SIGNR isoforms (total transcripts). We then amplified exon 3 (E3) which is deleted in the soluble forms and then calculated the E3:E5 ratio. We found that placental tissues from homozygous H1 infants express a significantly lower proportion of membrane-bound DC-SIGNR (18%) compared to that in WT individuals (36%) (P = 0.004) ( Figure 2B ) suggesting that exon 3 skipping happens more frequently in presence of the DC-SIGNR int2-180A variant associated with MTCT of HIV-1. The DC-SIGNR int2-180A variant is always transmitted with the promoter mutation p-198A (Figure 1 ). In the unadjusted regression analysis, the p-198A variant was significantly associated with IU but not with IP and PP HIV-1 transmission (Table 3) . Computational transcription factor binding site analysis predicts Table 1 . Baseline characteristics of mother and infants risk factors for intrauterine (IU), intrapartum (IP) and postpartum (PP) mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission. Figure 3A ). The luciferase activity of the p-198A variant construct was significantly lower than that of the WT p-198C promoter construct (p-198C/A ratio = 2, P = 0.006) ( Figure 3B ) suggesting that DC-SIGNR p-198A affects promoter activity. The other promoter mutants (p-577C and p-323A) observed in the Zimbabwean population did not affect DC-SIGNR transcription in this assay ( Figure S2 ). To determine the net impact of the DC-SIGNR p-198A mutation on DC-SIGNR expression in the placenta, we quantitated the absolute number of total and membrane-bound DC-SIGNR transcripts in the H1 homozygote and wild-type placental samples as described earlier. The total number of DC-SIGNR transcripts was determined to be 6856213 (DC-SIGNR copies6S.E.M per 10 5 GAPDH copies) in the placental samples from homozygous H1 infants and was 4-fold lower compared to that found in placentas from WT individuals (27816638, P = 0.011) ( Figure 3C ). As suggested earlier, the int2-180A mutation might induce exon 3 skipping leading to a lower production of membrane-bound DC-SIGNR. Although, the decrease in the total number of DC-SIGNR transcripts in H1 homozygous placental samples containing both the p-198AA and int2-180AA variants affected the proportion of membrane-bound and soluble isoforms, the effect of these mutations was more pronounced on the membrane-bound isoforms with an 8-fold decrease (H1 = 117636.2 vs WT = 9906220.6, P = 0.003) compared to a 3-fold decrease in total soluble isoforms (H1 = 5686181.9 vs WT = 19256495.3, P = 0.03) ( Figure 3C ). Therefore, DC-SIGNR p-198A and int2-180A mutations associated with MTCT of HIV-1 significantly decreased the level of total placental DC-SIGNR transcripts, disproportionately affecting the membrane-bound isoform production. Table 3 . Associations between infant DC-SIGNR promoter p-198 and intron 2 (int2)-180 variants and intrauterine (IU), intrapartum (IP) and postpartum (PP) mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission. Our genetic results, supported by expression assay in placenta, suggest the involvement of DC-SIGNR in MTCT of HIV-1. Homozygosity for the haplotype H1 was associated with IU transmission in the unadjusted regression analysis. However, the association disappeared after adjustment was made for the maternal factors presumably because of the small number of H1 homozygote infants analysed in each groups. H1 and H3 were the most frequent haplotypes observed in the study population and they share a cluster of mutations (Figure 1 ). Grouping haplotypes H1 and H3 increased the power of the study and permitted the identification of specific DC-SIGNR mutations associated with MTCT of HIV-1. Indeed, two mutations shared by haplotypes H1 and H3 were associated with vertical transmission of HIV-1. The int2-180A was associated with a 4-fold increased risk of IU and 6fold increased risk of IP after adjustment for the maternal factors. Although the p-198A variant was associated with IU transmission, the association disappeared after adjustment was made for the maternal viral load. Nevertheless, we showed that this mutation reduces DC-SIGNR transcriptional activity in vitro and produces lower level of DC-SIGNR transcripts in placental tissues in combination with the int2-180A variant. Since int2-180A is always transmitted with p-198A on the MTCT associated combined haplotypes H1/H3, whereas p-198A is carried on other nonassociated haplotypes (Figure 1) , we can speculate that the p-198A mutation alone may have a minor effect in vivo whereas in combination with the int2-180A variant, they both act to reduce the level of placental DC-SIGNR expression resulting in an increased risk of MTCT of HIV-1. The majority of IU transmission occurs during the last trimester of pregnancy (reviewed in [12] ). Full-term placenta samples were not available for the current study and the expression assays were performed on first-term placental tissues. A previous study looking at DC-SIGNR placental isoforms repertoire in full-term placenta samples demonstrated similar diversity of DC-SIGNR transcripts as in the first-term placental tissues studied herein [3] . However, since levels of DC-SIGNR expression have never been compared between the different terms of pregnancy, it is not known whether DC-SIGNR expression varies during the course of pregnancy. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to assume that the inter-individual differences in both DC-SIGNR isoform repertoire and transcript levels observed between the H1 and WT homozygous infants would be reflected throughout the pregnancy. To date, most studies have focused on the potential role of DC-SIGNR in trans infection of HIV-1 in vitro [2, 10] . However, the multiple mechanisms involved in trans infection and redundancy among C-type lectin functions make it difficult to determine the actual participation of DC-SIGNR in this mode of infection in vivo [13, 14] . The strong correlation we observed between MTCT of HIV-1 and DC-SIGNR genetic variants producing low levels of DC-SIGNR in the placenta suggested that mechanisms other than DC-SIGNR-mediated trans infection might operate during vertical transmission of HIV-1. For example, DC-SIGNR has also been shown to function as a HIV-1 antigen-capturing receptor [15] . Chan and colleagues recently demonstrated that DC-SIGNR transfected CHO cells diminish SARS-CoV titers by enhanced capture and degradation of the virus in a proteasome-dependent manner [4] . Since endothelial cells express MHC-I and II, degraded viral antigens could then be presented to immune cells to elicit an adaptive immune response [16, 17] . The HIV-1 coreceptor CCR5, but not CD4, is co-expressed with DC-SIGNR on placental and blood-brain barrier (BBB) endothelial cells [18, 19] . HIV-1 gp120 binding to CCR5 receptor on endothelial cells compromises BBB integrity and enhances monocytes adhesion and transmigration across the BBB [20, 21] . It is thus possible that reduced expression of DC-SIGNR, particularly the membranebound isoforms, on placental capillary endothelial cells might favour HIV-1 binding to CCR5 receptor, instead of DC-SIGNR receptor, facilitating the migration of maternal HIV-1-infected cells across the placental barrier resulting in IU transmission of HIV-1. The int2-180A variant contained in the H1 and H3 haplotypes was associated with IP transmission suggesting that DC-SIGNR also affect transmission of HIV-1 during delivery. Little is known about the mechanisms underlying transmission of HIV-1 during delivery. Passage through the birth canal could potentially expose infants through a mucosal portal entry (presumably ophthalmic, skin, or gastrointestinal), whereas placental insult during delivery (physical or inflammatory) may enhance transplacental passage of maternal HIV-1-infected cells into foetal circulation [22, 23] . Such process called microtransfusion has been proposed in regards to the results obtain in a Malawian cohort. Kweik and colleagues found a significant association between levels of maternal DNA in umbilical cord blood and IP transmission of HIV-1 suggesting that passage of maternal infected cells through the placenta is likely to occur during delivery [22] . Thus, in a similar fashion as suggested earlier for IU transmission, the relatively lower level of DC-SIGNR in the placenta of homozygous infants harbouring the int2-180A variant could promote HIV-1 binding to CCR5 receptor on endothelial cells affecting the placental barrier integrity and facilitating the passage of maternal infected cells in foetal circulation during delivery. Beside DC-SIGNR, other HIV-1 receptors are known to influence MTCT of HIV-1 (reviewed in [24] ). Genetic variants in CCR5 have been shown to influence vertical transmission of HIV-1. CCR5 promoter variants resulting in higher expression of the receptor were associated with increased risk of MTCT of HIV-1 among sub-Saharan Africans [25, 26] . The 32-pb deletion polymorphism in CCR5 has be shown to protect from vertical transmission of HIV-1 [27] , but this variant is virtually absent among African populations [28] . High copy numbers of CCL3L1, a potent HIV-1 suppressive ligand for CCR5, are associated with higher chemokine production and lower risk of MTCT of HIV-1 among South African infants [29, 30] . Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) is an innate immune receptor synthesised in the liver and secreted in the bloodstream in response to inflammation signal. MBL promotes pathogen elimination by opsonization and phagocytosis, and reduced expression of MBL resulting from polymorphism in coding and non-coding regions has been associated with an increased risk of MTCT of HIV-1 [31, 32] . In this study, we demonstrate for the first time, the potential functional impact of DC-SIGNR mutations on its expression in the placenta and in vertical transmission of HIV-1. We believe that the presence of DC-SIGNR at the placental endothelial cell surface may protect infants from HIV-1 infection by capturing virus and promoting its degradation/presentation. However, in placenta containing low levels of DC-SIGNR, HIV-1 would preferentially binds CCR5 on endothelial cells resulting in a loss of placental barrier integrity and enhanced passage of maternal HIV-1-infected cells in foetal circulation leading to MTCT of HIV-1. This mechanism may also apply to other vertically-transmitted pathogens known to interact with DC-SIGNR such as HIV-2, hepatitis C and dengue viruses and warrant further investigation. Associations between child DC-SIGNR exon 4 repeated region genotypes and mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission.CI, Confidence interval; N, number; NA; not applicable; OR, odds ratio a P-value as determined by the Chi-square test. b Comparison between genotype and all others. Found at: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007211.s003 (0.05 MB DOC) Figure S1 DC-SIGNR transcripts repertoire in placenta. Major RT-PCR products from RNA extract from 3 homozygous H1 and 3 homozygous WT placenta samples were purified, cloned and sequenced. Sequenced were analysed according to NCBI reference sequence NM_014257. CT; cytoplasmic tail, TM; trans-membrane domain; WT; wild-type Found at: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007211.s004 (0.11 MB DOC) Figure S2 Effect of DC-SIGNR promoter variant on transcriptional activity in luciferase reporter assay in vitro in transfected HeLa cells. Relative luciferase expression from pGL2-Basic, parental vector without promoter. Expression DC-SIGNR promoter constructs, spanning p-577C variant or p-323A variant were calculated relatively to this value. Data are presented in mean values6S.E.M of three independent experiments performed in triplicate. One-way ANOVA test followed by the Dunnett test for multiple comparison was used to compare the relative luciferase expression of the p-557C and p-323A variant reporters against the wild-type (WT) construct (not significant). 0 mg, 0,5 mg or 1 mg CMV-Tat vector was transfected with LTR-Luc as a positive control in these experiments.

What is the percentage of Mother to Child Transmission of HIV-1, when there is no intervention?

Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7029449/ SHA: 90de2d957e1960b948b8c38c9877f9eca983f9eb Authors: Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M Date: 2020-02-13 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.6.2000110 License: cc-by Abstract: Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2]. The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid- to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5–6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2,5], and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2]. Text: It is now 6 weeks since Chinese health authorities announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1] causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, the major transport hub of central China. The earliest human infections had occurred by early December 2019, and a large wet market in central Wuhan was linked to most, but not all, of the initial cases [2] . While evidence from the initial outbreak investigations seemed to suggest that 2019-nCoV could not easily spread between humans [3] , it is now very clear that infections have been spreading from person to person [2] . We recently estimated that more than 75,000 infections may have occurred in Wuhan as at 25 January 2020 [4] , and increasing numbers of infections continue to be detected in other cities in mainland China and around the world. A number of important characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection have already been identified, but in order to calibrate public health responses we need improved information on transmission dynamics, severity of the disease, immunity, and the impact of control and mitigation measures that have been applied to date. Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2] . The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid-to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5-6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2, 5] , and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2] . Chains of transmission have now been reported in a number of locations outside of mainland China. Within the coming days or weeks it will become clear whether sustained local transmission has been occurring in other cities outside of Hubei province in China, or in other countries. If sustained transmission does occur in other locations, it would be valuable to determine whether there is variation in transmissibility by location, for example because of different behaviours or control measures, or because of different environmental conditions. To address the latter, virus survival studies can be done in the laboratory to confirm whether there are preferred ranges of temperature or humidity for 2019-nCoV transmission to occur. In an analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection, 73% of cases with illness onset between 12 and 22 January reported no exposure to either a wet market or another person with symptoms of a respiratory illness [2] . The lack of reported exposure to another ill person could be attributed to lack of awareness or recall bias, but China's health minister publicly warned that pre-symptomatic transmission could be occurring [6] . Determining the extent to which asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission might be occurring is an urgent priority, because it has direct implications for public health and hospital infection control. Data on viral shedding dynamics could help in assessing duration of infectiousness. For severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), infectivity peaked at around 10 days after illness onset [7] , consistent with the peak in viral load at around that time [8] . This allowed control of the SARS epidemic through prompt detection of cases and strict isolation. For influenza virus infections, virus shedding is highest on the day of illness onset and relatively higher from shortly before symptom onset until a few days after onset [9] . To date, transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV appear more similar to influenza, with contagiousness occurring around the time of symptom onset, rather than SARS. Transmission of respiratory viruses generally happens through large respiratory droplets, but some respiratory viruses can spread through fine particle aerosols [10] , and indirect transmission via fomites can also play a role. Coronaviruses can also infect the human gastrointestinal tract [11, 12] , and faecal-oral transmission might also play a role in this instance. The SARS-CoV superspreading event at Amoy Gardens where more than 300 cases were infected was attributed to faecal-oral, then airborne, spread through pressure differentials between contaminated effluent pipes, bathroom floor drains and flushing toilets [13] . The first large identifiable superspreading event during the present 2019-nCoV outbreak has apparently taken place on the Diamond Princess cruise liner quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan, with at least 130 passengers tested positive for 2019-nCoV as at 10 February 2020 [14] . Identifying which modes are important for 2019-nCoV transmission would inform the importance of personal protective measures such as face masks (and specifically which types) and hand hygiene. The first human infections were identified through a surveillance system for pneumonia of unknown aetiology, and all of the earliest infections therefore had Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes pneumonia. It is well established that some infections can be severe, particularly in older adults with underlying medical conditions [15, 16] , but based on the generally mild clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV cases detected outside China, it appears that there could be many more mild infections than severe infections. Determining the spectrum of clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV infections is perhaps the most urgent research priority, because it determines the strength of public health response required. If the seriousness of infection is similar to the 1918/19 Spanish influenza, and therefore at the upper end of severity scales in influenza pandemic plans, the same responses would be warranted for 2019-nCoV as for the most severe influenza pandemics. If, however, the seriousness of infection is similar to seasonal influenza, especially during milder seasons, mitigation measures could be tuned accordingly. Beyond a robust assessment of overall severity, it is also important to determine high risk groups. Infections would likely be more severe in older adults, obese individuals or those with underlying medical conditions, but there have not yet been reports of severity of infections in pregnant women, and very few cases have been reported in children [2] . Those under 18 years are a critical group to study in order to tease out the relative roles of susceptibility vs severity as possible underlying causes for the very rare recorded instances of infection in this age group. Are children protected from infection or do they not fall ill after infection? If they are naturally immune, which is unlikely, we should understand why; otherwise, even if they do not show symptoms, it is important to know if they shed the virus. Obviously, the question about virus shedding of those being infected but asymptomatic leads to the crucial question of infectivity. Answers to these questions are especially pertinent as basis for decisions on school closure as a social distancing intervention, which can be hugely disruptive not only for students but also because of its knock-on effect for child care and parental duties. Very few children have been confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far but that does not necessarily mean that they are less susceptible or that they could not be latent carriers. Serosurveys in affected locations could inform this, in addition to truly assessing the clinical severity spectrum. Another question on susceptibility is regarding whether 2019-nCoV infection confers neutralising immunity, usually but not always, indicated by the presence of neutralising antibodies in convalescent sera. Some experts already questioned whether the 2019-nCoV may behave similarly to MERS-CoV in cases exhibiting mild symptoms without eliciting neutralising antibodies [17] . A separate question pertains to the possibility of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or of disease [18, 19] . If either of these were to be relevant, the transmission dynamics could become more complex. A wide range of control measures can be considered to contain or mitigate an emerging infection such as 2019-nCoV. Internationally, the past week has seen an increasing number of countries issue travel advisories or outright entry bans on persons from Hubei province or China as a whole, as well as substantial cuts in flights to and from affected areas out of commercial considerations. Evaluation of these mobility restrictions can confirm their potential effectiveness in delaying local epidemics [20] , and can also inform when as well as how to lift these restrictions. If and when local transmission begins in a particular location, a variety of community mitigation measures can be implemented by health authorities to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of an epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons [21] . A number of social distancing measures have already been implemented in Chinese cities in the past few weeks including school and workplace closures. It should now be an urgent priority to quantify the effects of these measures and specifically whether they can reduce the effective reproductive number below 1, because this will guide the response strategies in other locations. During the 1918/19 influenza pandemic, cities in the United States, which implemented the most aggressive and sustained community measures were the most successful ones in mitigating the impact of that pandemic [22] . Similarly to international travel interventions, local social distancing measures should be assessed for their impact and when they could be safely discontinued, albeit in a coordinated and deliberate manner across China such that recrudescence in the epidemic curve is minimised. Mobile telephony global positioning system (GPS) data and location services data from social media providers such as Baidu and Tencent in China could become the first occasion when these data inform outbreak control in real time. At the individual level, surgical face masks have often been a particularly visible image from affected cities in China. Face masks are essential components of personal protective equipment in healthcare settings, and should be recommended for ill persons in the community or for those who care for ill persons. However, there is now a shortage of supply of masks in China and elsewhere, and debates are ongoing about their protective value for uninfected persons in the general community. The Table summarises research gaps to guide the public health response identified. In conclusion, there are a number of urgent research priorities to inform the public health response to the global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Establishing robust estimates of the clinical severity of infections is probably the most pressing, because flattening out the surge in hospital admissions would be essential if there is a danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed with patients who require inpatient care, not only for those infected with 2019-nCoV but also for urgent acute care of patients with other conditions including those scheduled for procedures and operations. In addressing the research gaps identified here, there is a need for strong collaboration of a competent corps of epidemiological scientists and public health workers who have the flexibility to cope with the surge capacity required, as well as support from laboratories that can deliver on the ever rising demand for diagnostic tests for 2019-nCoV and related sequelae. The readiness survey by Reusken et al. in this issue of Eurosurveillance testifies to the rapid response and capabilities of laboratories across Europe should the outbreak originating in Wuhan reach this continent [23] . In the medium term, we look towards the identification of efficacious pharmaceutical agents to prevent and treat what may likely become an endemic infection globally. Beyond the first year, one interesting possibility in the longer term, perhaps borne of wishful hope, is that after the first few epidemic waves, the subsequent endemic re-infections could be of milder severity. Particularly if children are being infected and are developing immunity hereafter, 2019-nCoV could optimistically become the fifth human coronavirus causing the common cold. None declared.

What was attributed to the spread of SARS-COV at Amoy Gardens?

Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030657 SHA: 0938d2fb07611897abf38cea727ddbeea77b73d9 Authors: Nishiura, Hiroshi Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030657 License: cc-by Abstract: To understand the time-dependent risk of infection on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, I estimated the incidence of infection with novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The epidemic curve of a total of 199 confirmed cases was drawn, classifying individuals into passengers with and without close contact and crew members. A backcalculation method was employed to estimate the incidence of infection. The peak time of infection was seen for the time period from 2 to 4 February 2020, and the incidence has abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February on which a movement restriction policy was imposed. Without the intervention from 5 February, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been as large as 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively, while these were kept to be 102 and 47 cases, respectively. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board, the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited. Movement restriction greatly reduced the number of infections from 5 February onwards. Text: An outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess [1] . The primary case remains unknown, but the index case, defined as the first identified case, is a passenger who started coughing from 19 January 2020 on board, disembarking the ship in Hong Kong on 25 January. As the case was diagnosed on 1 February, the ship was requested to remain in the ocean near Yokohama from 3 February onwards. Subsequently, the movement of all passengers was restricted on board from 5 February, for a matter of 14 days of quarantine. Out of a total of 3711 persons (consisting of 2666 passengers and 1045 crew members), 199 symptomatic cases have been diagnosed on board as of 24 February, and additional asymptomatic infections and symptomatic cases after disembarkation have also been reported. One of the critical issues in infectious disease epidemiology is that the time of infection event is seldom directly observable. For this reason, the time of infection needs to be statistically estimated, employing a backcalculation method [2] . Using a sophisticated statistical model with doubly intervalcensored likelihood and right truncation with an exponential growth of cases, the mean incubation period has been estimated to be about 5.0 days [3] . To understand the time-dependent risk of infection throughout the course of outbreak and estimate the effectiveness of the quarantine measure from 5 to 19 February 2020, I aimed to estimate the incidence of infection with COVID-19 and also predict the likely number of infections prevented by the quarantine measure. I analyzed the epidemic curve, ct, on day t, illustrated by the number of confirmed cases by the date of illness onset. The confirmatory diagnosis was made, using the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The date of illness onset was defined as the first date of fever. In addition to the date of illness onset, cases were classified by contact history inside the cabin and also by the type of membership, i.e., crew or passenger. Close contact was defined as having at least one cabinmate who was confirmed by RT-PCR. We estimate the number of cases by time of infection, it. Using the probability mass function of the incubation period of length s, fs, the incidence of infection is known to satisfy where E(.) represents the expected value. As for fs, it is known that the mean and standard deviation are 5.0 and 3.0 days, respectively, best fitted by lognormal distribution [3] . Employing a step function, the incidence of infection was statistically estimated via a maximum likelihood method. The estimation was implemented independently by the history of contact and type of membership. Regarding the real-time forecasting, we employed the so-called Richards model, an analogue to the generalized logistic model [4, 5] : where is the cumulative incidence on day t, Z is the cumulative incidence at the end of the outbreak, s is the parameter that governs the flexibility of the logistic curve, a is the early growth rate of cases and ti is the inflection point of the cumulative incidence curve. Assuming that the cumulative incidence is Gaussian distributed, four unknown parameters were estimated. The Richards model was fitted to two different datasets, i.e., (i) the dataset of the entire course of the epidemic and (ii) the dataset by 4 February 2020. The latter dataset corresponds to the time period without any impact of movement restriction that was in place from 5 February onwards. Figure 1 shows the epidemic curve by contact history and type of membership. The highest incidence of illness onset was observed on 7 February. The epidemic curve in a latter half period was dominated by crew members whose movement was not strictly controlled due to the need to continue service on the ship. The second dominating group was passengers with close contact history. The last illness onset date on board of a passenger without close contact was on 14 February. Estimating the incidence of infection, the peak incidence was identified for the period from 2 to 4 February among passengers both with and without close contact (Figure 2 ). The incidence of infection abruptly dropped after 5 February, the date of movement restriction. Among passengers without close contact, the incidence was estimated to be zero, except for 8-10 February 2020, during which 0.98 persons (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0, 7.74) per day were estimated to have been infected. The epidemic peak among crew members was seen for the period from 8 to 10 February 2020. Figure 3 compares the cumulative incidence with and without movement restriction policy from 5 February. In the presence of intervention, the cumulative incidence among passengers with and without close contact and crew members were 102, 47 and 48 cases, respectively, as of 24 February 2020. These were well realized by the Richards model. Without intervention from 5 February onwards, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively. A large outbreak of COVID-19 occurred on a cruise ship. Estimating the incidence, the peak time of infection was shown to have been from 2 to 4 February, and the incidence abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February, on which the movement restriction policy was imposed, and at most there was, on average, one case of infection per day from 8 to 10 February. Other than continued exposure among crew members, the estimated incidence in this study indicates that the movement restriction policy from 5 February 2020 was highly successful in greatly reducing the number of secondary transmissions on board. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board (and before the disembarkation of a large number of passengers), the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited Among disembarked passengers, symptomatic cases have started to be reported on the ground in and outside of Japan. In particular, cases arising from passengers without close contact indicate a possible pathway of infection via mechanisms that were not covered by the abovementioned analysis that relied on symptomatic cases. Although the transmission via direct human-to-human contact was prevented by movement restrictions, the role of other modes of transmission, e.g., environmental and asymptomatic transmissions, should be further explored. The author declares no conflict of interest.

Who was the first COVID-19 identified case patient on the Diamond Princess cruise ship?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

Who suffers severe diseases from MERS?

Population-Based Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors in Infants Less Than 6 Months in Nepal https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5907881/ SHA: ef821e34873d4752ecae41cd9dfc08a5e6db45e2 Authors: Hughes, Michelle M; Englund, Janet A; Kuypers, Jane; Tielsch, James M; Khatry, Subarna K; Shrestha, Laxman; LeClerq, Steven C; Steinhoff, Mark; Katz, Joanne Date: 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.1093/jpids/piw079 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Pertussis is estimated to cause 2 percent of childhood deaths globally and is a growing public health problem in developed countries despite high vaccination coverage. Infants are at greatest risk of morbidity and mortality. Maternal vaccination during pregnancy may be effective to prevent pertussis in young infants, but population-based estimates of disease burden in infants are lacking, particularly in low-income countries. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of pertussis in infants less than 6 months of age in Sarlahi District, Nepal. METHODS: Nested within a population-based randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination during pregnancy, infants were visited weekly from birth through 6 months to assess respiratory illness in the prior week. If any respiratory symptoms had occurred, a nasal swab was collected and tested with a multitarget pertussis polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. The prospective cohort study includes infants observed between May 2011 and August 2014. RESULTS: The incidence of PCR-confirmed Bordetella pertussis was 13.3 cases per 1000 infant-years (95% confidence interval, 7.7–21.3) in a cohort of 3483 infants with at least 1 day of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based active home surveillance for respiratory illness, a low risk for pertussis was estimated among infants in rural Nepal. Nepal’s immunization program, which includes a childhood whole cell pertussis vaccine, may be effective in controlling pertussis in infants. Text: A resurgence of pertussis across age groups has occurred in several countries in recent years [1] . Middle-and high-income countries that use an acellular pertussis vaccine for the primary vaccination series have been particularly affected [2, 3] , and infants and adolescents have experienced the greatest increase [4] . Factors that may contribute to the increased risk of pertussis include rapidly waning immunity from those vaccinated with acellular vaccines [1, 5, 6] , asymptomatic transmission from individuals vaccinated with acellular vaccines [7] , genetic adaption of Bordetella pertussis [8] , vaccination delay or refusal [9] , improved surveillance and laboratory capabilities [2] , and overall increased awareness of the continuing circulation of B pertussis [1] . Some countries experiencing epidemic pertussis, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Argentina, now recommend pertussis immunization in pregnancy and vaccination of close contacts [10, 11] to protect the youngest infants from pertussis before they can be vaccinated themselves [12] . Recent data from maternal vaccination trials demonstrate the ability of antibodies to be transferred from mothers to their infants in pregnancy and their persistence in infants [13] . Global estimates of pertussis show the highest childhood burden in Southeast Asia [14] . In this region, maternal pertussis vaccination during pregnancy may be a way to protect infants, similar to the approach using tetanus toxoid vaccine. However, globally only 1 population-based estimate of pertussis in infants from birth has been conducted (Senegal) [15] , and surveillance and laboratory capabilities in Asia are lacking [16, 17] . The World Health Organization (WHO) recently recommended that countries using whole cell pertussis vaccines continue to do so in light of recent data indicating that acellular pertussis vaccines are less effective than whole cell pertussis vaccines [18] . Population-based data are needed, especially in low-income settings, to provide a more accurate estimate of the burden of pertussis in infants to inform childhood and maternal immunization policies [19, 20] . We report on a prospective cohort study following infants weekly in their homes to monitor for pertussis disease from birth to age 6 months. The objective was to provide a population-based estimate of laboratory-confirmed pertussis incidence in infants less than 6 months of age in the Sarlahi District, Nepal. The study was nested within 2 consecutive randomized controlled trials of maternal influenza vaccination during pregnancy set in the Sarlahi District, located in the central Terai (low-lying plains) region of Nepal [21] . At the start of the trial, prevalent pregnancies were identified through a census of all households in the catchment area. For the duration of the trial, field workers visited all households in the communities, every 5 weeks, where married women (15-40 years) resided, for surveillance of incident pregnancies. Once a pregnancy was identified, women provided consent and were enrolled. From April 25, 2011 through September 9, 2013, women between 17 and 34 weeks gestation were randomized and vaccinated with either an influenza vaccine or placebo. The study was a population-based prospective cohort of infants followed from birth through 6 months postpartum. Approval for the study was obtained from the Institutional Review Boards at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Cincinnati Children's Medical Center, the Institute of Medicine at Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, and the Nepal Health Research Council. The trials are registered at Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01034254). At baseline, information was collected on household structure, socioeconomic status, and demographics. At enrollment, date of last menstrual period and pregnancy history data were collected. As soon as possible after delivery, the mother and infant were visited to collect detailed birth information including infant weight and breastfeeding status. From birth through 6 months, postpartum infants were visited weekly by a field worker, who recorded any infant respiratory symptoms in the past 7 days. If an infant had any of the following symptoms, a mid-nasal nylon flocked swab was collected: fever, cough, wheeze, difficulty breathing, or ear infection. Starting on August 17, 2012, new symptoms, more specific for pertussis, were added to the weekly morbidity visit: apnea, cyanosis, cough with vomit, or whoop/whooping cough. The swabs were stored for up to 1 week at room temperature in PrimeStore Molecular Transport Medium (Longhorn Diagnostics LLC, Bethesda, MD). In addition to these signs, mothers were asked which, if any, infant vaccinations were received in the past 7 days, including pertussis vaccination [22] . Mid-nasal swabs were also collected on a weekly basis from mothers from enrollment through 6 months postpartum who reported fever plus one additional morbidity (cough, sore throat, nasal congestion, or myalgia). All nasal swabs collected from infants were tested for B pertussis, Bordetella parapertussis, and Bordetella bronchispetica. Only the nasal swabs of mothers whose infants tested positive for any of these pathogens were tested for the same pathogens. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing was conducted at the University of Washington's Molecular Virology Laboratory according to previously published methods [23] . Two-target PCR was used to assess the presence of 3 Bordetella species: B pertussis, B parapertussis, and B bronchiseptica. The amplified targets were chromosomal repeated insertion sequence IS481 (IS) and the polymorphic pertussis toxin ptxA promoter region (PT). After amplification, the melting points of the amplicons were measured in an iCycler (Bio-Rad). A sample was interpreted as positive when the target(s) had a melting temperature within the species-specific acceptable range and a computed tomography ≤42. A sample was negative if none of the targets tested positive or a single positive target was not reproducible. Maternal nasal swabs were tested for those mothers whose infants tested positive for any Bordetella species Polymerase chain reaction was also performed for several viral infections (influenza, rhinovirus [RV], respiratory syncytial virus [RSV], bocavirus [BoV], human metapneumovirus, coronavirus, adenovirus, and parainfluenza [1] [2] [3] [4] ) as previously described [21] . Of 3693 women enrolled, 3646 infants were live born to 3621 women (Supplementary Figure 1 ). Infants were included in this analysis if they were followed for any length of the follow-up period (0 to 180 days); median total follow-up was 146 days per infant (Supplementary Figure 2) . The final dataset consists of 3483 infants, contributing 1280 infant-years of observation, with at least 1 follow-up visit during the first 6 months. This includes infants from the entire trial period, both before and after more pertussis-specific additions to the weekly symptom questionnaire. At baseline, data on household structure were gathered. At enrollment, women reported their literacy status (binary) and pregnancy history. The field workers identified their ethnicity into 2 broad groups (Pahadi, a group originating from the hills; or Madeshi, a group originating from north India) from names and observation. Women were categorized as nulliparous or multiparous. Responses to 25 questions about household construction, water and sanitation, and household assets were used to develop an index to measure the socioeconomic status of households. Binary variables for each of the 25 questions and a mean SES score were calculated for each household. Gestational age was measured using a woman's report of date of last menstrual period during pregnancy surveillance. Birth weight was collected as soon as possible after birth using a digital scale (Tanita model BD-585, precision to nearest 10 grams). Birth weights collected >72 hours after birth were excluded from the analysis. Small for gestational age (SGA) was calculated using the sex-specific 10th percentile cutoff described by Alexander et al [24] and the INTERGROWTH-21 standards [25] . Women were asked within how many hours of birth breastfeeding was initiated and binary breastfeeding categories were created (≤1 hour versus >1 hour postdelivery). Incidence was calculated as the number of pertussis cases per 1000 infant-years at risk. Poisson exact 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were constructed. Characteristics of infant pertussis cases were compared with nonpertussis cases using bivariate Poisson regression. Characteristics of all pertussis respiratory episodes were compared with nonpertussis respiratory episodes; t tests were used for continuous predictors and Fisher's exact tests were used for categorical associations due to the low number of pertussis episodes. All statistical analyses were conducted in Stata/SE 14.1. A total of 3483 infants had 4283 episodes of respiratory illness between May 18, 2011 and April 30, 2014. Thirty-nine percent (n = 1350) of infants experienced no respiratory episodes. The incidence of respiratory illness was 3.6 episodes per infant-year (95% CI, 3.5-3.7). Mean episode duration was 4.7 days (95% CI, 4.6-4.9). A total of 3930 (92%) episodes were matched to 1 or more pertussis-tested nasal swabs from 2026 infants (Supplementary Figure 1) . Seventeen cases of B pertussis were identified from 19 nasal swabs (nasal swabs were positive on 2 consecutive weeks for 2 infants). The incidence of PCR-confirmed B pertussis was 13.3 cases per 1000-infant years (95% CI, 7.7-21.3). Five cases of B parapertussis were detected with an incidence of 3.9 cases per 1000 infant-years (95% CI, 1.3-9.1). No cases of B bronchiseptica were identified. The average pertussis episode duration was 8 days (range, 2-33) ( Table 1 ). Mean age of onset of symptoms was 83 days (range, 19-137) (median, 80; interquartile range, 63-109). The most common symptoms were cough, difficulty breathing, and cough with vomit. None of the additional symptoms related to pertussis that were added in year 2 (cyanosis, apnea, cough with vomit, and whoop) resulted in collection of nasal swabs based solely on these additional symptoms. Pertussis episodes were statistically significantly more likely to include difficulty breathing, cough with vomit, and whoop compared with other respiratory illness. Six infants had at least 1 pertussis vaccination before pertussis disease onset (three <2 weeks and three >2 weeks before pertussis illness) with a mean of 18 days from vaccination to illness compared with 49 days for nonpertussis episodes (P = .03). Five infants received their first pertussis vaccination postpertussis disease onset, whereas 6 infants received no pertussis vaccination in the first 180 days. Three fourths of pertussis episodes were coinfected with at least 1 virus, with RV and BoV the most common. Cases of pertussis were more likely to be infected with BoV than respiratory cases due to causes other than pertussis. The majority of cases occurred between February 2013 and January 2014 (Figure 1) . No statistically significant differences between risk factors for pertussis and nonpertussis cases ( Table 2) were documented. Given the low number of pertussis cases, the lack of a statistical association is not evidence of nonassociation. No deaths occurred in infants who had pertussis. Of the 8 mothers of B pertussis-positive infants who had a nasal swab collected (14 nasal swabs total) during their own follow-up, none were positive for any pertussis species. The 5 B parapertussis cases were primarily male whose mothers were primiparous, literate, and Pahadi ethnicity (Supplementary Table 1 ). No mothers of infants who had B parapertussis had a nasal swab collected during follow-up. The average B parapertussis episode duration was 4 days (Supplementary Table 2 ). Mean age of onset of symptoms was 58 days with a range of 7-95 days. The most common symptoms were cough and wheeze. Rhinovirus and RSV were the only coinfections observed. All B parapertussis cases occurred between September 2011 and February 2012 ( Figure 1 ). A low incidence of pertussis and generally mild clinical presentation were found in infants <6 months in Nepal. To our knowledge, this represents one of the first population-based active surveillance of PCR-confirmed pertussis among young infants in Asia. Acellular pertussis vaccine trials conducted in the 1990s found the average pertussis incidence in the whole cell vaccine groups ranged from 1 to 37 cases per 1000 infantyears [26] . Our finding of 13 B pertussis cases per 1000 infantyears was on the lower end of this range. In the United States in 2014, the estimated pertussis incidence in infants less than 6 months was 2 cases per 1000 infant-years [27] , much lower than observed in our study; however, this passive surveillance system likely vastly underestimates pertussis incidence. Thus, there is a need for active surveillance data such as ours. Furthermore, given our highly sensitive case detection method, many of our pertussis cases would likely not have been detected in the previous acellular pertussis vaccine trials. More stringent respiratory symptom criteria would have lowered our incidence estimate even further. The low incidence was found in a population where pentavalent vaccine (Pentavac: Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis [Whole Cell], Hepatitis-B and Haemophilus Type b Conjugate Vaccine; Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd), scheduled for administration at 6, 10, and 14 weeks, is received with significant delays (7% of infants received all 3 recommended pertussis vaccines by 6 months) [22] . These data support the WHO's recommendation that countries using whole cell pertussis vaccine continue to do so given that the majority of outbreaks have been concentrated in countries using the acellular pertussis vaccine [2] . Recent studies suggest that protection from acellular pertussis vaccine is not as strong or long lasting as that conferred by the whole cell pertussis vaccine [6, 28] . Another contributing factor to the low pertussis incidence observed could be that surveillance was conducted during a period of low pertussis transmission. Pertussis is a cyclical disease, thought to peak every 2 to 4 years, and we may have captured the burden at a low circulation period [6] . We observed over 70% of our B pertussis cases over a 1-year period. This increase from earlier observation periods could indicate a temporary rise in pertussis consistent with its cyclical pattern or a true increase in the baseline burden. Previous research on pertussis seasonality has in different places and time periods demonstrated various periods of peak transmission or no discernable patterns [29, 30] . Although our data do not support a seasonal pattern, the numbers observed are too low to be conclusive. Pertussis symptom duration and severity were mild compared with the classic pertussis case presentation. Only 3 of the 17 cases fulfilled the WHO criteria, which requires a minimum of 2 weeks of cough, whoop, or posttussive vomiting [31] . Studies on pertussis in infants have generally been clinic-based, hospital-based, or in an outbreak, which therefore required a certain severity of illness for parents to recognize a need for medical attention [29, 30, 32] . These study designs and passive surveillance efforts therefore may have missed milder pertussis cases [33] . Our study, which required only 1 respiratory symptom for a nasal swab to be collected, had increased sensitivity to detect a range of pertussis case presentations. An alternative explanation for the mild cases seen could be an increase in the proportion of mild compared with severe pertussis cases in Nepal. Although cough, difficulty breathing, and cough with vomit were the most common symptoms, no symptom was present in all B pertussis cases. During an epidemic period in Washington state, among infants <1 year, who had a minimum of 14 days cough plus an additional symptom, 82% had posttussive emesis, 29% had apnea, 26% had whoop, and 42% had cyanosis [32] . A study of US neonates with pertussis showed the symptom prevalence to be 97% for cough, 91% for cyanosis, 58% for apnea, and 3% for fever [34] . Our study found lower or equal symptom prevalence with the exception of fever. Fever prevalence was higher in our study, similar to that found in Peru [29] . Although not statistically significant, infants with pertussis were more likely to have been born preterm, low birth weight, and SGA, and their mothers were more likely to be primiparous. These findings are similar to previous studies showing no difference in pertussis cases by sex [29, 35, 36] or crowding [35] but showing differences by birth weight [36] . Coinfections were common, consistent with findings from other hospital-based studies [33] . Codetection of B pertussis and B parapertussis with respiratory viruses may be due to asymptomatic pertussis carriage. The incidence of B parapertussis of 4 cases per 1000 person-years was comparable to that of 2 per 1000 person-years found in the Italian acellular pertussis vaccine trial in 1992-1993 [37] . The duration of illness was shorter for B parapertussis with a maximum duration of 6 days compared with a maximum of 33 days for B pertussis. A milder presentation is consistent with clinical knowledge of B parapertussis infection [37, 38] . Bordetella parapertussis cases occurred only during a 5-month period. There were several study design limitations. We cannot be certain whether the reported symptoms were caused by pertussis, another organism, or whether symptoms were related to 2 or more etiologic agents. We were unable to perform multivariate regression modeling for characteristics associated with pertussis disease and pertussis cases due to the small number of cases we detected. Infant respiratory symptoms were reported by parents, who may have missed signs that might have been observed by a healthcare worker. However, the criteria for collection of the nasal swab were broad and did not require sophisticated clinical skills. However, apnea and cyanosis may have been difficult for parents to identify. Although the criteria for specimen collection changed in year 2, no infant experienced a pertussis-specific symptom in isolation without also having one of the originally specified respiratory symptoms. These data support our assumption that we were unlikely to have missed pertussis cases in year 1 with our less sensitive respiratory symptom criteria. Nasal swabs were collected in the mid-nasal region for influenza virus detection, which may have lowered the sensitivity of pertussis detection. In a field site, the acceptability of an additional nasopharyngeal swab would likely have increased the participant refusal rate. This would have decreased the generalizability of our results to the entire population. Although nasopharyngeal swabs or nasopharyngeal aspirates are the recommended specimen collection method [39] , the nasopharyngeal region was established as the collection area of choice when the diagnostic measure was culture, which has low sensitivity. Recent data demonstrated the comparability of using mid-nasal versus nasopharyngeal swabs in PCR pertussis detection [40] . Strengths of the study included being a population-based, prospective study, with very low refusal rates. Risk factors, clinical symptoms, and coinfections were prospectively identified without the potential bias that may occur when these data are collected retrospectively or in clinical settings. The community-based design allows generalizability of these results to the entire population and not just those seeking care at a health facility or in an outbreak situation. The Sarlahi District is located in the Terai region where the majority of Nepalese reside, and it has similar demographics to the entire population of Nepal [41] . Sarlahi's location near sea level and on the border with India supports the generalizability of these results to many populations living on the Indian subcontinent. The weekly active surveillance with sensitive criteria for pertussis testing was able to detect mild and atypical pertussis cases, which may have been missed by previous traditional surveillance. The multitarget PCR method allowed highly sensitive and specific detection of 2 additional Bordetella species beyond the primary B pertussis target. We observed a low incidence of pertussis in infants in a whole cell vaccine environment. Pertussis cases were generally milder than expected compared with traditional pertussis clinical definitions. These data support clinicians considering pertussis in their differential diagnosis of infants with mild respiratory symptoms. Policymakers in Nepal will need to weigh the benefit of an additional prenatal pertussis vaccine or a switch to acellular primary pertussis vaccine with the low burden of pertussis in infants less than 6 months. Our study demonstrated that mid-nasal swabs were able to detect pertussis using a sensitive multitarget PCR. The less invasive mid-nasal nasal swab is an attractive alternative for pertussis nasal swab collection, and further research is needed to compare this collection site with nasopharyngeal swabs. In the future, this method may enhance population-based surveillance efforts.

How frequently do pertussis outbreaks peak?

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 SHA: 018269476cd191365d6b8bed046078aea07c8c01 Authors: Yin, Tian-Mu Chen; Jia, Rui; Qiu-Peng, Wang; Ze-Yu, Zhao; Jing-An, Cui; Ling Date: 2020 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 License: cc-by Abstract: Background As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea. Text: On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020, was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January [1] . It is reported that the virus might be bat origin [2] , and the transmission of the virus might related to a seafood market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) exposure [3, 4] . The genetic features and some clinical findings of the infection have been reported recently [4] [5] [6] . Potentials for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed [7] . Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus. There were several researches focusing on mathematical modelling [3, 8] . These researches focused on calculating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) by using the serial intervals and intrinsic growth rate [3, 9, 10] , or using ordinary differential equations and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods [8] . However, the bat origin and the transmission route form the seafood market to people were not considered in the published models. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model, and R 0 was calculated based on the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. The reported cases of SARS-CoV-2, which have been named as COVID-19, were collected for the modelling study from a published literature [3] . As reported by Li et al. [3] , the onset date of the first case was on 7 December, 2020, and the seafood market was closed on 1 January, 2020 [11] . The epidemic curve from 7 December, 2019 to 1 January, 2020 was collected for our study, and the simulation time step was 1 day. fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, with tolerance set at 0.001, was used to perform curve fitting. While the curve fitting is in progress, Berkeley Madonna displays the root mean square deviation between the data and best run so far. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was employed to assess the goodness-of-fit. SPSS 13.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) was employed to calculate the R 2 . The Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model The BHRP transmission network model was posted to bioRxiv on 19 January, 2020 [12] . We assumed that the virus transmitted among the bats, and then transmitted to unknown hosts (probably some wild animals). The hosts were hunted and sent to the seafood market which was defined as the reservoir of the virus. People exposed to the market got the risks of the infection (Fig. 1) . The BHRP transmission network model was based on the following assumptions or facts: a) The bats were divided into four compartments: susceptible bats (S B ), exposed bats (E B ), infected bats (I B ), and removed bats (R B ). The birth rate and death rate of bats were defined as n B and m B . In this model, we set Ʌ B = n B × N B as the number of the newborn bats where N B refer to the total number of bats. The incubation period of bat infection was defined as 1/ω B and the infectious period of bat infection was defined as 1/γ B . The S B will be infected through sufficient contact with I B , and the transmission rate was defined as β B . b) The hosts were also divided into four compartments: susceptible hosts (S H ), exposed hosts (E H ), infected hosts (I H ), and removed hosts (R H ). The birth rate and death rate of hosts were defined as n H and m H . In this model, we set Ʌ H = n H × N H where N H refer to the total number of hosts. The incubation period of host infection was defined as 1/ω H and the infectious period of host infection was defined as 1/γ H . The S H will be infected through sufficient contact with I B and I H , and the transmission rates were defined as β BH and β H , respectively. c) The SARS-CoV-2 in reservoir (the seafood market) was denoted as W. We assumed that the retail purchases rate of the hosts in the market was a, and that the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the purchases was I H /N H , therefore, the rate of the SARS-CoV-2 in W imported form the hosts was aWI H /N H where N H was the total number of hosts. We also assumed that symptomatic infected people and asymptomatic infected people could export the virus into W with the rate of μ P and μ' P , although this assumption might occur in a low probability. The virus in W will subsequently leave the W compartment at a rate of εW, where 1/ε is the lifetime of the virus. d) The people were divided into five compartments: susceptible people (S P ), exposed people (E P ), symptomatic infected people (I P ), asymptomatic infected people (A P ), and removed people (R P ) including recovered and death people. The birth rate and death rate of people were defined as n P and m P . In this model, we set Ʌ P = n P × N P where N P refer to the total number of people. The incubation period and latent period of human infection was defined as 1/ω P and 1/ω' P . The infectious period of I P and A P was defined as 1/γ P and 1/γ' P . The proportion of asymptomatic infection was defined as δ P . The S P will be infected through sufficient contact with W and I P , and the transmission rates were defined as β W and β P , respectively. We also assumed that the transmissibility of A P was κ times that of I P , where 0 ≤ κ ≤ 1. The parameters of the BHRP model were shown in Table 1 . We assumed that the SARS-CoV-2 might be imported to the seafood market in a short time. Therefore, we added the further assumptions as follows: a) The transmission network of Bats-Host was ignored. b) Based on our previous studies on simulating importation [13, 14] , we set the initial value of W as following impulse function: In the function, n, t 0 and t i refer to imported volume of the SARS-CoV-2 to the market, start time of the simulation, and the interval of the importation. Therefore, the BHRP model was simplified as RP model and is shown as follows: During the outbreak period, the natural birth rate and death rate in the population was in a relative low level. However, people would commonly travel into and out from Wuhan City mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Therefore, n P and m P refer to the rate of people traveling into Wuhan City and traveling out from Wuhan City, respectively. In the model, people and viruses have different dimensions. Based on our previous research [15] , we therefore used the following sets to perform the normalization: In the normalization, parameter c refers to the relative shedding coefficient of A P compared to I P . The normalized RP model is changed as follows: The transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 based on the RP model In this study, we used the R 0 to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Commonly, R 0 was defined as the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population [13, 16, 17] . If R 0 > 1, the outbreak will occur. If R 0 < 1, the outbreak will toward an end. In this study, R 0 was deduced from the RP model by the next generation matrix approach [18] . The multiple of the transmissibility of A P to that of I P . The parameters were estimated based on the following facts and assumptions: a) The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.1-7.0) [3] . We set the same value (5.2 days) of the incubation period and the latent period in this study. Thus, ω P = ω' P = 0.1923. b) There is a mean 5-day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalization of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalized from 3 to 7 days after onset, respectively) [19] [20] [21] . The duration from illness onset to first medical visit for the 45 patients with illness onset before January 1 was estimated to have a mean of 5.8 days (95% CI: 4.3-7.5) [3] . In our model, we set the infectious period of the cases as 5.8 days. Therefore, γ P = 0.1724. c) Since there was no data on the proportion of asymptomatic infection of the virus, we simulated the baseline value of proportion of 0.5 (δ P = 0.5). d) Since there was no evidence about the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection, we assumed that the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection was 0.5 times that of symptomatic infection (κ = 0.5), which was the similar value as influenza [22] . We assumed that the relative shedding rate of A P compared to I P was 0.5. Thus, c = 0.5. e) Since 14 January, 2020, Wuhan City has strengthened the body temperature detection of passengers leaving Wuhan at airports, railway stations, long-distance bus stations and passenger terminals. As of January 17, a total of nearly 0.3 million people had been tested for body temperature [23] . In Wuhan, there are about 2.87 million mobile population [24] . We assumed that there was 0.1 million people moving out to Wuhan City per day since January 10, 2020, and we believe that this number would increase (mainly due to the winter vacation and the Chinese New Year holiday) until 24 January, 2020. This means that the 2.87 million would move out from Wuhan City in about 14 days. Therefore, we set the moving volume of 0.2 million per day in our model. Since the population of Wuhan was about 11 million at the end of 2018 [25] , the rate of people traveling out from Wuhan City would be 0.018 (0.2/11) per day. However, we assumed that the normal population mobility before January 1 was 0.1 times as that after January 10. Therefore, we set the rate of people moving into and moving out from Wuhan City as 0.0018 per day (n P = m P = 0.0018). f) The parameters b P and b W were estimated by fitting the model with the collected data. g) At the beginning of the simulation, we assumed that the prevalence of the virus in the market was 1/100000. h) Since the SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, we assumed that it could be died in the environment in a short time, but it could be stay for a longer time (10 days) in the unknown hosts in the market. We set ε = 0.1. In this study, we assumed that the incubation period (1/ ω P ) was the same as latent period (1/ω' P ) of human infection, thus ω P = ω' P . Based on the equations of RP model, we can get the disease free equilibrium point as: In the matrix: By the next generation matrix approach, we can get the next generation matrix and R 0 for the RP model: The R 0 of the normalized RP model is shown as follows: Our modelling results showed that the normalized RP model fitted well to the reported SARS-CoV-2 cases data (R 2 = 0.512, P < 0.001) (Fig. 2) . The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person, and from person to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. In this study, we developed RP transmission model, which considering the routes from reservoir to person and from person to person of SARS-CoV-2 respectively. We used the models to fit the reported data in Wuhan City, China from published literature [3] . The simulation results showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 3.58 from person to person. There was a research showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) [8] . Another research showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9) [3] . The different values might be due to the different methods. The methods which Li et al. employed were based on the epidemic growth rate of the epidemic curve and the serial interval [3] . Our previous study showed that several methods could be used to calculate the R 0 based on the epidemic growth rate of the epidemic curve and the serial interval, and different methods might result in different values of R 0 [26] . Our results also showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.30 from reservoir to person which was lower than that of person to person. This means that the transmission route was mainly from person to person rather than from reservoir to person in the early stage of the transmission in Wuhan City. However, this result was based on the limited data from a published literature, and it might not show the real situation at the early stage of the transmission. Researches showed that the R 0 of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was about 2.7-3.4 or 2-4 in Hong Kong, China [27, 28] . Another research found that the R 0 of SARS was about 2.1 in Hong Kong, China, 2.7 in Singapore, and 3.8 in Beijing, China [29] . Therefore, we believe that the commonly acceptable average value of the R 0 of SARS might be 2.9 [30] . The transmissibility of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is much lower than SARS. The reported value of the R 0 of MERS was about 0.8-1.3 [31] , with the inter-human transmissibility of the disease was about 0.6 or 0.9 in Middle East countries [32] . However, MERS had a high transmissibility in the outbreak in the Republic of Korea with the R 0 of 2.5-7.2 [33, 34] . Therefore, the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 might be higher than MERS in the Middle East countries, similar to SARS, but lower than MERS transmitted in the Republic of Korea. To contain the transmission of the virus, it is important to decrease R 0 . According to the equation of R 0 deduced from the simplified RP model, R 0 is related to many parameters. The mainly parameters which could be changed were b P , b W , and γ. Interventions such as wearing masks and increasing social distance could decrease the b P , the intervention that close the seafood market could decrease the b W , and shorten the duration form symptoms onset to be diagnosed could decrease 1/γ. All these interventions could decrease the effective reproduction number and finally be helpful to control the transmission. Since there are too many parameters in our model, several limitations exist in this study. Firstly, we did not use the detailed data of the SARS-CoV-2 to perform the estimation instead of using the data from literatures [3] . We simulated the natural history of the infection that the proportion of asymptomatic infection was 50%, and the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection was half of that of symptomatic infection, which were different to those of MERS and SARS. It is known that the proportion of asymptomatic infection of MERS and SARS was lower than 10%. Secondly, the parameters of population mobility were not from an accurate dataset. Thirdly, since there was no data of the initial prevalence of the virus in the seafood market, we assumed the initial value of 1/100 000. This assumption might lead to the simulation been under-or over-estimated. In addition, since we did not consider the changing rate of the individual's activity (such as wearing masks, increasing social distance, and not to travel to Wuhan City), the estimation of importation of the virus might not be correct. All these limitations will lead to the uncertainty of our results. Therefore, the accuracy and the validity of the estimation would be better if the models fit the first-hand data on the population mobility and the data on the natural history, the epidemiological characteristics, and the transmission mechanism of the virus. By calculating the published data, our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 might be higher than MERS in the Middle East countries, similar to SARS, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea. Since the objective of this study was to provide a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the R 0 was estimated based on limited data which published in a literature. More data were needed to estimate the transmissibility accurately.

How long after onset, the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalized?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What are MicroRNAs(miRNA)?

Port d’Entrée for Respiratory Infections – Does the Influenza A Virus Pave the Way for Bacteria? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5742597/ SHA: ee0050c6fb81a4067d134010d0c80d21edb5df0b Authors: Siemens, Nikolai; Oehmcke-Hecht, Sonja; Mettenleiter, Thomas C.; Kreikemeyer, Bernd; Valentin-Weigand, Peter; Hammerschmidt, Sven Date: 2017-12-21 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2017.02602 License: cc-by Abstract: Bacterial and viral co-infections of the respiratory tract are life-threatening and present a global burden to the global community. Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Streptococcus pyogenes are frequent colonizers of the upper respiratory tract. Imbalances through acquisition of seasonal viruses, e.g., Influenza A virus, can lead to bacterial dissemination to the lower respiratory tract, which in turn can result in severe pneumonia. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge about bacterial and viral co-infections of the respiratory tract and focus on potential experimental models suitable for mimicking this disease. Transmission of IAV and pneumonia is mainly modeled by mouse infection. Few studies utilizing ferrets, rats, guinea pigs, rabbits, and non-human primates are also available. The knowledge gained from these studies led to important discoveries and advances in understanding these infectious diseases. Nevertheless, mouse and other infection models have limitations, especially in translation of the discoveries to humans. Here, we suggest the use of human engineered lung tissue, human ex vivo lung tissue, and porcine models to study respiratory co-infections, which might contribute to a greater translation of the results to humans and improve both, animal and human health. Text: In recent years the human microbiota is more and more recognized to play a crucial role in pathogenesis of many diseases (Weinstock, 2012) . The upper respiratory tract is a natural niche for potentially pathogenic bacteria embedded in commensal communities forming the nasopharyngeal microbiome. In particular, the microbial communities of the nasopharynx (Hilty et al., 2012) are associated with respiratory diseases, i.e., severe pneumonia, which are responsible for substantial mortality and morbidity in humans worldwide (Prina et al., 2016) . The composition of the nasopharyngeal microbiome is highly dynamic (Biesbroek et al., 2014a,b,c) and many factors, including environmental and host factors, can affect microbial colonization (Koppen et al., 2015) . Recent studies on neonates have shown that the respiratory microbiota develops from initially maternally transmitted mixed flora with predominance of Streptococcus viridans species to niche-specific bacterial profiles containing mostly Staphylococcus aureus at around 1 week of age (Bosch et al., 2016a) . Between 2 weeks and 6 months after birth, the staphylococcal predominance declines and colonization with Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococci) as a predominant pathobiont emerges (Miller et al., 2011; Bosch et al., 2016a,b) . The dynamic microbiome composition is guaranteed through the interplay between bacterial species, other microbes, and changing environmental conditions, as well as host-bacteria interactions (Blaser and Falkow, 2009 ). Most of the time, the microbiome and its interplay with the human host are believed to be beneficial for both (Pettigrew et al., 2008; Murphy et al., 2009 ). However, imbalances in microbial composition can lead to acquisition of new viral or bacterial species and invasion of potential pathogens, which in turn can become detrimental, especially in elderly people and children with an exhausted or immature immune system (Pettigrew et al., 2008; Blaser and Falkow, 2009; Murphy et al., 2009) . One particular example showing imbalances introduced by single dosage of antibiotics was demonstrated by Ichinohe and colleagues (Ichinohe et al., 2011) . While commensal respiratory microbiota facilitated immune-support against Influenza A virus infection (IAV), oral treatment with antibiotics resulted not only in a shift of bacterial composition, but also in impaired CD4 T-, CD8 T-, and B-cell immunity following infection with IAV in mice (Ichinohe et al., 2011) . Analyses of human oropharyngeal microbiomes during the 2009 H1N1 IAV pandemic revealed that at the phylum level, the abundance of Fermicutes and Proteobacteria was augmented in pneumonia patients as compared to healthy controls (Leung et al., 2013) . However, another study published in the same year contradicted these results (Chaban et al., 2013) . Chaban and colleagues analyzed microbiomes of 65 patients from H1N1 IAV outbreak in 2009. Although the phylogenetic composition of pneumonia patients was dominated by Fermicutes, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria, no significant differences between the patients and healthy controls or any other variables tested, including age and gender, were observed (Chaban et al., 2013) . In this review we discuss secondary bacterial infections of the respiratory tract after primary infection by IAV with a focus on mechanisms by which these interactions are potentially mediated, and we will provide insight into the host contribution and immunological consequences. We further focus on potential animal models suitable for mimicking asymptomatic bacterial colonization and disease progression and thus, enabling to study adaptation strategies, viral-bacterial interactions, and immune responses in these highly lethal co-infections. Influenza A viruses belong to the family of Orthomyxoviridae and based on the antigenicity of their haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) they are classified into 16 classical HA and 9 classical NA subtypes (Neumann et al., 2009) . The 8-segmented genomes of influenza A viruses are characterized by a significant plasticity. Due to point mutations and re-assortment events new variants or strains with epidemic or pandemic potential emerge (Neumann et al., 2009 ). In addition, influenza can be transmitted between animals, including swine, birds, horses, and humans, making it a zoonotic disease (van der Meer et al., 2010) . Seasonal influenza usually resolves without consequences in healthy individuals. However, it is estimated that seasonal influenza effects 5-10% of the world's population resulting in about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths annually (Tjon-Kon-Fat et al., 2016) . At greater risk to develop secondary bacterial pneumonia are individuals with comorbidities, elderly people (age > 65), pregnant women, and children under the age of one (Rothberg et al., 2008) . For a long time it was considered that the H1N1 strain, an avian-like H1N1 virus, directly caused most of the fatalities during the 1918-1919 pandemic (Spanish Flu), often from a hemorrhagic pneumonitis rapidly progressing to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death (Osterholm, 2005; Gerberding, 2006; Oxford et al., 2006) . The pandemic killed around 50 million people worldwide and remains unique in its severity compared to other big outbreaks. However, many of the findings have been reinterpreted in recent years (Brundage and Shanks, 2007; Chien et al., 2009) . It is estimated that around 95% of all severe cases and deaths were attributed to secondary infections with bacterial pathogens, most predominantly by Streptococcus pneumoniae (Morens et al., 2008) . Individual studies limited to certain regions identified also other pathogens commonly colonizing the respiratory tract, including Staphylococcus aureus, group A streptococcus (GAS) and Haemophilus influenzae (Brundage and Shanks, 2008) . During the next two pandemics (H2N2 Asian Flu 1957 and H3N2 Hong Kong Flu 1968 −1969 bacterial co-infections were less likely the cause of death compared to the Spanish Flu (Giles and Shuttleworth, 1957; Trotter et al., 1959) . Still, pneumonia accounted for about 44% of deaths during the Asian Flu (Giles and Shuttleworth, 1957) . Most fatalities resulting from pneumonia occurred in individuals with chronic conditions, i.e., chronic lung diseases, rheumatic carditis, and hypertension (Giles and Shuttleworth, 1957) . In 1957-1958, S. aureus was predominantly isolated from fatal pneumonia cases (Hers et al., 1957 (Hers et al., , 1958 Robertson et al., 1958; Martin et al., 1959) , whereas S. pneumoniae returned as predominant cause of severe pneumonia during the Hong Kong Flu (Sharrar, 1969; Bisno et al., 1971; Burk et al., 1971; Schwarzmann et al., 1971) . Forty years later in 2009, a novel H1N1 virus of swine origin emerged and caused again a pandemic (Dawood et al., 2009 (Dawood et al., , 2012 . In contrast to Asian and Hong Kong Flu, mortality rates were rather low, but most deaths occurred in healthy young individuals with no underlying conditions (Reichert et al., 2010; Monsalvo et al., 2011; Dawood et al., 2012) . About 25-50% of severe or fatal cases were linked to complications due to bacterial pneumonia (Dominguez-Cherit et al., 2009; Estenssoro et al., 2010; Mauad et al., 2010; Shieh et al., 2010 ). Although regional variations occurred, pneumococci and S. aureus were the most frequently isolated bacterial species (Mauad et al., 2010; Shieh et al., 2010; Rice et al., 2012) . Group A streptococcus was absent in many local pneumonia outbreaks associated with viruses, but was predominant in others (Brundage and Shanks, 2008; Ampofo et al., 2010) . When it does appear, it is typically third in incidence (Chaussee et al., 2011) . Overall, data on pandemic outbreaks suggest that disease severity and mortality can be linked to secondary bacterial pathogens with variations depending on regions and state of immunity of the population (Brundage and Shanks, 2008; Shanks et al., 2010 Shanks et al., , 2011 McCullers, 2013) . There is increasing evidence that the nasopharyngeal microbiota plays an important role in the pathogenesis of acute viral respiratory infections (Teo et al., 2015; de Steenhuijsen Piters et al., 2016; Rosas-Salazar et al., 2016a,b) . Respiratory viruses, including IAV, have been shown to alter bacterial adherence and colonization leading to an increased risk of secondary bacterial infections (Tregoning and Schwarze, 2010) . Pneumococci, S. aureus, and GAS are important human Gram-positive pathogens. All of them are frequent colonizers of the human nasopharynx and they share many features including pathogenic mechanisms and clinical aspects (Figure 1) . However, they also have unique properties. Staphylococcus aureus colonizes persistently about 30% of the human population and typical niches include nares, axillae, and skin (Peacock et al., 2001; von Eiff et al., 2001; van Belkum et al., 2009) . They cause a variety of clinical manifestations ranging from mild skin infections to fatal necrotizing pneumonia. In the last decades, the pathogen became resistant to an increasing number of antibiotics and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) is now a major cause of hospital acquired infections (Hartman and Tomasz, 1984; Ubukata et al., 1989; Zetola et al., 2005) . Also the rise of community-acquired S. aureus strains is of special concern, because certain clones are associated with very severe infections (Rasigade et al., 2010) . Recent prospective studies demonstrated an increase in proportion of communityacquired methicillin-sensitive S. aureus in severe pneumonia cases (McCaskill et al., 2007; Sicot et al., 2013) . The pneumococcus is a typical colonizer of the human nasopharynx. About 20-50% of healthy children and 8-30% of healthy adults are asymptomatically colonized (McCullers, 2006) . Pneumococci cause diseases ranging from mild, i.e., sinusitis, conjunctivitis, and otitis media, to more severe and potentially life-threatening infections, including communityacquired pneumonia, bacteraemia, and meningitis (Bogaert et al., 2004; Valles et al., 2016) . This bacterium is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates in risk groups such as immunocompromised individuals, children, and elderly (Black et al., 2010; Valles et al., 2016) . Group A streptococci colonize the mouth and upper respiratory tract in about 2-5% of world's population (Okumura and Nizet, 2014) . The most common, non-invasive and mild infections caused by GAS are tonsillitis and pharyngitis with estimated 600 million cases per year (Carapetis et al., 2005) . Listed as number nine in the list of global killers with around 500,000 deaths annually (Carapetis et al., 2005) , it is obvious that this pathogen can cause severe invasive infections, including pneumonia, sepsis, streptococcal toxic shock syndrome, and necrotizing skin infections (Cunningham, 2000; Carapetis et al., 2005) . Although all three pathogens are able to cause highly lethal diseases, the most fatal remains the pneumococcus, estimated to cause ca. 10% of all deaths in children below 5 years of age (O'Brien et al., 2009) , in the elderly (Marrie et al., 2017) , and in immuno-compromised individuals (Baxter et al., 2016) . Influenza A virus binds via HA to either α2,3or α2,6-linked sialic acid at the surface of epithelial cells of the upper and lower respiratory tract (Webster et al., 1992) . Seasonal strains show usually affinity to α2,6-linked sialic acids that are expressed in the human trachea, whereas avian-like viruses preferentially bind to α2,3-linked sialic acids of alveolar type II cells (Shinya et al., 2006; van Riel et al., 2007 van Riel et al., , 2010 . The release of viral genomic RNA into the cytosol activates different immune response pathways. Binding of viral RNA to retinoic acid inducible gene 1 induces the expression of type I and III interferons and activates transcription factor NF-κB, which in turn activates the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines (Durbin et al., 2013; Iwasaki and Pillai, 2014) . In addition, inflammasome activation leads to the release of IL-1β and IL-18 (Pothlichet et al., 2013; Iwasaki and Pillai, 2014) . All these responses are supposed to promote viral clearance. However, the presence of viral proteins during infection induces also direct activation of the intrinsic or indirectly the activation of the extrinsic apoptotic pathway via production of inflammatory cytokines, resulting in apoptosis or even necrosis of the epithelium (Korteweg and Gu, 2008) . Furthermore, aberrant coagulation induced by virus infection causes a hyper-inflammatory response (Yang and Tang, 2016) . All these events contribute to lung tissue injury (Imai et al., 2008; Davidson et al., 2014) . The epithelial damage due to viral replication provides a beneficial environment for initial bacterial attachment (Plotkowski et al., 1993) . On the other hand, already colonized bacteria might enhance influenza virus virulence either by directly secreting proteases that cleave and activate HA (Figure 2 ) (Bottcher-Friebertshauser et al., 2013) or, indirectly, by activating host proteases such as plasminogen, which increases replication rates and infectivity of the virus (Scheiblauer et al., 1992; Tse and Whittaker, 2015) . Potentially pathogenic bacteria, including the three species mentioned above, express an arsenal of virulence factors responsible for attachment to human host structures. Microbial surface components recognizing adhesive matrix molecules FIGURE 1 | Potential models to study bacterial and viral co-infections of the respiratory tract. S. pneumoniae, S. aureus, S. pyogenes, and S. suis are frequent colonizers of the upper respiratory tract. Seasonal IAV infection can lead to an increased risk of secondary bacterial infections, i.e., pneumonia. Several experimental models can be used for studying these severe infections. Patient samples, including ex vivo lung tissue are materials of choice, but they are rare due to ethical considerations. Tissue engineering approaches closely resemble the 3D architecture, cellular composition, and matrix complexity of the respective organ and were proven as useful tool to study infectious diseases. In vivo bacterial and viral co-infections are mainly performed in mice, which does not necessarily resemble the human physiology and immune system. Thus, we suggest using the porcine model, which nearly resembles over 80% of the human immune system. (MSCRAMMs), such as PspC, PspA, and PsaA in pneumococci (Hammerschmidt, 2006) , SPA, FnbA, ClfA, and ClfB in S. aureus (Bartlett and Hulten, 2010; Otto, 2010) , and M-protein, PrtF1, and PrtF2 in GAS (Cunningham, 2000) , respectively, and socalled moon-lightning proteins expressed by all three species, e.g., GAPDH, enolase or PGK (Fulde et al., 2013) , enable the bacteria to attach to damaged cells or molecules of the extracellular matrix, including fibronectin, fibrin, fibrinogen, and collagens, or fibrinolytic proteins like plasminogen (McCullers and Rehg, 2002; Bergmann and Hammerschmidt, 2007; Linke et al., 2012; Siemens et al., 2012; Voss et al., 2012) . Once the initial attachment occurs, bacterial cytotoxins including pneumolysin of pneumococci (Garcia-Suarez Mdel et al., 2007; Zahlten et al., 2015) , α-hemolysin and leukocidins of S. aureus (Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015) , and Streptolysins S and O and Streptococcal pyrogenic exotoxin B of S. pyogenes (Tsai et al., 1998; Gurel et al., 2013; Siemens et al., 2015 Siemens et al., , 2016 , can synergize with viral counterparts to further increase lung tissue pathology. Additional potential mechanisms by which the initial colonization of the lower respiratory tract and lung tissue damage might occur include potentiation of the development of pneumonia by IAV neuraminidase through enzymatic removal of sialic acid from the lung, thus exposing host receptors for pneumococcal adherence (McCullers and Bartmess, 2003) . The host inflammatory state in response to viral infection can alter presentation of receptors on the surface, thus allowing bacterial invasion (Cundell and Tuomanen, 1994) . As the patient begins to recover from viral infection, secondary bacterial infections might occur (Louria et al., 1959) due to the incomplete wound healing and exposure of host membrane components, including laminin, collagens type I and IV to classical bacterial MSCRAMMs (Louria et al., 1959; Puchelle et al., 2006) . Epithelial cells are the first responders to infections in the lung, followed by the tissue resident alveolar macrophages. They promote viral clearance via phagocytosis, efferocytosis, and release of cytokines and chemokines to promote immune responses (Hashimoto et al., 2007; Kumagai et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2012; Hillaire et al., 2013) . Respiratory viruses like IAV are able to induce suppression and killing of the resident alveolar macrophages (Figure 2 ) (Ghoneim et al., 2013) . These cells are usually replaced by differentiation of recruited blood derived monocytes into macrophages of different polarization patterns. This in turn creates a delay in pathogen clearance and opens a window for host susceptibility to secondary bacterial infections, colloquially named superinfections (Ghoneim et al., 2013) . In addition, induction of interferons as a response to viral infection compromises the immune sensing of Gram-positive bacteria by neutrophils and macrophages, which would normally clear the bacteria from the lungs (Figure 2 ) (Sun and Metzger, 2008; Tian et al., 2012) . The exact mechanism underlying this phenomenon is still not understood. Several studies suggested that viral RNA activates Toll-like receptors (TLR) 2 and TLR4 and, consequently, the production of type I interferons to promote an antiviral state (Shahangian et al., 2009) . The subsequent infection with Gram-positive bacteria, e.g., pneumococci, enhances the type I interferon expression, which in turn suppresses production of the CCL2 chemokine and recruitment of macrophages (Nakamura Frontiers in Microbiology | www.frontiersin.org FIGURE 2 | The interplay between IAV, bacteria, and the human host. The epithelial damage due to viral replication provides a beneficial environment for bacterial (Bact.) attachment. IAV is able to induce suppression and killing of resident alveolar macrophages (AM), which in turn delays viral clearance. The release of viral RNA activates different immune response pathways resulting in cytokine storm. Type I and III interferons compromise the immune recognition of Gram-positive bacteria by neutrophils and macrophages. In addition, they might suppress natural killer cell function (NK), including release of TNF, which activates alveolar macrophages. After initial inflammation, the situation might worsen due to cellular infiltration of the lungs by neutrophils (PMN), leading to an increased degranulation and tissue damage by effector molecules, including heparin-binding protein (HBP). et al., 2011). Another study by Shahangian et al. (2009) revealed that the antiviral state leads to impaired production of neutrophil chemoattractants CXCL1 and CXCL2, which in turn promotes less effective immune responses due to attenuated neutrophil functions during the early phase of pneumococcal invasion. Other studies found that IAV exposed lungs had impaired natural killer (NK) cell responses in the airway to subsequent S. aureus infection (Small et al., 2010) . Reduced TNFα production by NK cells was identified as a crucial upstream mechanism of depressed antimicrobial activities by alveolar macrophages (Figure 2 ) (Small et al., 2010) . It seems likely that IAV NA is also able to activate host cell receptors in a TGF-β dependent manner, which in turn promotes GAS invasion and subsequent lung pathology (Li et al., 2015) . In vitro studies on the interplay between IAV-pneumococci and human dendritic cells revealed TLR3 as a crucial sensor of viral and bacterial RNA leading to enhanced IL-12p70 production, which in turn might promote an anti-viral state by upregulation of interferons (Yamamoto et al., 2004; Spelmink et al., 2016) . However, it should be noted that depending on the bacterial species the disease manifestation and underlying innate immune responses might vary (Sharma-Chawla et al., 2016) . A lot of the experimental studies on disease mechanisms and immune responses are based on a subsequent bacterial infection within hours or a few days post IAV infection. However, bacterial infiltrations of the lungs might occur much later, i.e., during the onset of wound healing after partial clearance of IAV, which has been reported in most studies performed in recent years (Snelgrove et al., 2008; Hussell and Cavanagh, 2009 ). These processes are characterized by a general anti-inflammatory state and suppression of mechanisms involved in pathogen clearance due to increased interleukin-10 production (van der Sluijs et al., 2004; Metzger and Sun, 2013) . The anti-inflammatory state suppresses the expression of pattern recognition receptors (PRR) on professional phagocytes leading to impaired phagocytosis and killing of microbes. These events might allow bacterial overgrowth in the lungs and tissue pathology (Sun and Metzger, 2008; Goulding et al., 2011) . Like other severe infectious diseases caused by single agents, pneumonia is characterized by hyper-inflammatory conditions of the lungs at the onset of infection followed by a hypoinflammatory state with immune paralysis (Morton et al., 2014) . In co-infections, after initial inflammation in response to viral infection the situation might worsen due to bacterial invasion and enhanced cellular infiltration of the lungs by neutrophils, leading to an increased tissue damage and cytokine storm (Figure 2 ) (Conenello et al., 2007; McAuley et al., 2007 McAuley et al., , 2010 Porto and Stein, 2016) . Furthermore, the coagulation system becomes activated and contributes to the pathophysiological response to infection (van der Poll and Herwald, 2014). Bacteria like pneumococci, S. aureus, and GAS can activate and modulate the coagulation system, leading to extensive expression of tissue factor and increasing the risk of severe coagulopathy Shannon et al., 2013; Walters et al., 2016) . Bacterial pathogens also express a variety of cytolytic toxins that can contribute to inflammation and tissue pathology. Pneumolysin, a pneumococcal pore-forming toxin with low affinity to lung epithelial cells, can damage neutrophils by utilizing P2X7 receptor (Domon et al., 2016) . Staphylococcal cytotoxins (α-toxin and leukocidins, including Panton-Valentine leucocidin, PVL) are associated with severe tissue pathology, strong upregulation of chemokines, and increased neutrophil influx of the lungs (Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015) . GAS toxins, including SLO and SpeB, are capable of directly causing tissue damage and promoting pro-inflammatory states through neutrophil lysis (Snall et al., 2016; Uhlmann et al., 2016) . The cytolytic effects caused by bacterial toxins might synergize with the outcome of IAV cytotoxic accessory protein, PB1-F2, mediated tissue pathology leading to enhanced cytokine production (Ramos and Fernandez-Sesma, 2012) . Taken together, most likely synergistic effects of the pathways that are involved in bacterial and viral inflammation lead to enhanced immune activation and higher morbidity and mortality (Joyce et al., 2009; Koppe et al., 2012; Ramos and Fernandez-Sesma, 2012; Bucasas et al., 2013; Kuri et al., 2013) . Figure 2 summarizes the interplay between virus, bacteria, and host. Experimental animal models are a useful tool to study in vivo effects of different infectious agents and they represent approximately 3% of all pneumonia research published in peerreview journals (Hraiech et al., 2015) . However, the constant increase of animal studies in the last decades is in contrast to their reproducibility in humans (Hackam and Redelmeier, 2006) . Hackam and colleagues identified 2,000 articles published between 1980 and 2006 in seven leading scientific journals that regularly publish animal studies (Hackam and Redelmeier, 2006) . Seventy-six out of 2,000 were highly cited with a median citation count of 889. Out of these 76 studies 28 were replicated in human randomized trials, 14 were contradicted, and 34 remained untested (Hackam and Redelmeier, 2006) . Only 1.4% of the animal studies published in high-impact journals were translated in human randomized trials (Hackam and Redelmeier, 2006) , whereas about 44% replication rate was reported for highly cited human studies (Ioannidis, 2005) . In pneumonia models, mammalians are mostly used because of their anatomical and physiological proximity to humans (Hraiech et al., 2015) . To monitor extensive physiological studies, larger mammalian species, including ferrets, dogs, rabbits, pigs, and baboons are the models of choice (Mizgerd and Skerrett, 2008) . However, rodents and in particular mice are used more frequently as a pneumonia model organisms. Rapid reproductive rate, small size, less complicated handling, the ability to reproduce and compare results with already published bacterial and viral mono-infections, detailed knowledge of genetics and immune responses, and a plethora of available reagents to study infections in mice are reasons for the use of these animals. To avoid variations in responses due to genetic diversity inbred mice strains are useful tools for studies aiming to elucidate molecular mechanisms of diseases. In addition, genetic engineering allowed to generate a wide variety of mouse variants with gainof-function, loss-of-function or reporter genes (Mizgerd and Skerrett, 2008) . As outlined above, many in vivo mice studies on bacterial and viral co-infections provided useful insights into severe pneumonia, including (i) the fact that viral infection primes the host for bacterial susceptibility leading to severe secondary infection (Hashimoto et al., 2007; Shahangian et al., 2009; Chaussee et al., 2011; Nakamura et al., 2011) , (ii) pathogen synergism (Tsai et al., 1998; McCullers and Rehg, 2002; Garcia-Suarez Mdel et al., 2007; Gurel et al., 2013; Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015; Zahlten et al., 2015) , (iii) enhanced inflammatory response at the onset of infection (Korteweg and Gu, 2008; Durbin et al., 2013; Pothlichet et al., 2013; Iwasaki and Pillai, 2014) leading to increased alveolar damage followed by immune paralysis with defective clearance of microorganisms (Shinya et al., 2006; van Riel et al., 2007 van Riel et al., , 2010 , and (iv) host receptor availability for sustained bacterial infection (Louria et al., 1959; Plotkowski et al., 1993; Cundell and Tuomanen, 1994; Puchelle et al., 2006; Korteweg and Gu, 2008) . However, mouse models for bacterial and/or viral infections have several limitations. Most of the bacterial and viral species under study are human pathogens. In recent years it was also shown that host genetic variations and sex differences have an impact on predisposition, severity, and outcome of infection (Chella Krishnan et al., 2015 While C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice are characterized by a higher resistance, DBA/2 strains are more susceptible and permissive to bacterial and viral strains (Alymova et al., 2011; Chella Krishnan et al., 2015 . In addition, transmission of IAV and bacteria is inefficient in adult mice, thus requiring alternative animal models, including neonatal mice or ferrets (Diavatopoulos et al., 2010; McCullers et al., 2010) . IAV was shown to be essential for pneumococcal transmission from colonized mice to their naive littermates and the transmission occurred only when all mice were infected with IAV (Diavatopoulos et al., 2010) . et al., 2010) . Ferrets are naturally susceptible to IAV isolated from different species, including humans, birds, and swine (Thangavel and Bouvier, 2014) . The infection of ferrets with human seasonal IAV isolates results in an upper respiratory tract infection similar to human influenza infection (Tripp and Tompkins, 2009) . In contrast to mice, non-adapted human IAV can be used for the infection. Unfortunately, there are only few reports on bacterial and IAV co-infections in this model organism. A report by Sanford and Ramsay showed enhanced staphylococcal colonization of the upper respiratory tract in IAV infected animals as compared to non-infected, while no difference between both groups was observed in group B streptococcal infection (Sanford and Ramsay, 1987) . In contrast, Smith and Mc Cullers reported lack of establishment of staphylococcal infection even when ferrets were pre-infected with IAV (Smith and McCullers, 2014) . The biggest advantages of using ferrets as a model include (i) their susceptibility to nonadapted human pathogens, (ii) efficiency in transmitting IAV and bacteria from one individual to another, and (iii) presentation of the clinical signs of disease manifestation akin to human influenza infection. Unfortunately, their limited availability, complex husbandry, and limited accessibility to ferret-specific reagents makes this research difficult to perform (Bouvier and Lowen, 2010) . In recent years, the guinea pig (Cavia porcellus) was also used in pneumonia research. The physiology and anatomy of the guinea pig lung resembles to a certain extent the human lung and this model organism is often used in non-infectious lung diseases, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (Canning and Chou, 2008) . In addition, its commercial availability, ease of husbandry, the ability to work with nonadapted pathogens and the efficiency of transmission are reasons for using this in vivo model (Bouvier and Lowen, 2010) . Guinea pigs are susceptible to human, avian, and swine influenza viruses. Although viral replication can be readily detected upon intranasal inoculation in the upper respiratory tract and the lungs, guinea pigs exhibit only minor clinical symptoms (Lowen et al., 2006; Gabbard et al., 2014) . However, the lung pathology of human IAV infected guinea pigs correlates with the clinical severity of human infection (Gabbard et al., 2014) . Transmission of pneumococci in guinea pigs is promoted by co-infection with Sendai virus (Saito et al., 1988) . Guinea pigs infected with pneumococci alone and cage-mated with non-treated contact animals transmitted the bacteria only in 7% of cases, while Sendai-virus infected, co-housed guinea pigs acquired pneumococcal infection in 83% of contacts (Saito et al., 1988) . Another study evaluated antibiotic efficacy in invasive pulmonary infection caused by penicillin resistant pneumococcus (Ponte et al., 1996) . Intratracheal instillation of 3 × 10 9 CFU of S. pneumoniae induced a fatal pneumonia and bacteremia in 85% of untreated animals within 46 h (Ponte et al., 1996) . As with ferrets, there is a paucity of data describing immune responses to pulmonary infectious agents. This is in parts due to the lack of species specific reagents, which is a disadvantage in using this model organism. Recently, the cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus) was reported to be susceptible to IAV. Nasal and pulmonary infection in adult inbred cotton rats did not require viral adaptation (Ottolini et al., 2005) . The infection led to increased breathing rates accompanied by weight loss and decreased body temperature. Replication of IAV was more extensive in nasal tissues than the lung, and persisted for six consecutive days. Tissue pathology included damage of bronchiolar epithelium and the animals developed pneumonia which persisted for nearly 3 weeks (Ottolini et al., 2005) . In bacteriological studies rats are more frequently used. There are numerous rat models investigating the impact of diabetes (Oliveira et al., 2016) , metabolic syndromes (Feng et al., 2015) , cirrhosis , pharmaco-kinetics and dynamics (Antonopoulou et al., 2015; Hoover et al., 2015) , intoxication (Davis et al., 1991) , immunization (Iinuma and Okinaga, 1989) , and general bacterial virulence factors (Shanley et al., 1996) on development of pneumococcal, streptococcal, and staphylococcal pneumonia and lung pathology. Unfortunately, there are only few studies on bacterial and viral co-infections in rats. The first was performed by Harford et al., 1946 (Harford et al., 1946 . The authors concluded that the secondary bacterial pneumonia does not convert the sub-lethal viral infection to a lethal outcome (Harford et al., 1946) . Another study on human respiratory syncytial virus and S. pneumoniae revealed that rats were easily colonized with pneumococci, but viral replication after subsequent infection was strain dependent. In addition, neither pneumococci nor the virus spread from the upper to the lower respiratory tract, and neither pathogen was transmitted to naive cage mates . Although rats share a lot of immune features with humans, including nitric oxide production by macrophages (Carsillo et al., 2009) , the biggest disadvantages are low animal availability, aggressiveness of the species, and the lack of specific reagents. Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) are well known for their use in studying cardiovascular diseases, antibody production, and eye research. Rabbits were also employed to study pneumonia, although only a few models are available. Typical read-out parameters include survival, leukocyte infiltration of the lungs, lung pathology, and assessment of drug concentration in serum. One of the first studies on pneumococcal pneumonia in rabbits was performed in Kline and Winternitz (1913) . This study revealed that rabbits possess an active immunity if they have recovered from one attack of experimental pneumonia and they may subsequently resist repeated intra-tracheal dosages of pneumococci (Kline and Winternitz, 1913) . In 1926 an infection by inhalation of Type I pneumococci was established in rabbits (Stillman and Branch, 1926) . The bacteria infiltrated easily the lower respiratory tract and pneumococci which reached the lungs usually disappeared within hours and fatal septicemia appeared in some of the animals (Stillman and Branch, 1926) . Most recent rabbit models of pneumococcal and staphylococcal pneumonia are based on intra-bronchial or intra-pulmonary infections which make them useful for pathogenesis (Diep et al., 2010 (Diep et al., , 2017 , as well as drug efficiency and efficacy studies (Cabellos et al., 1992; Croisier-Bertin et al., 2011) . However, this infection route requires surgery and species-specific reagents are scarce. In IAV research rabbits are frequently used for antibody production and for studies on antibody kinetics following single or multiple IAV administrations (Loza-Tulimowska et al., 1977) . Also, rabbits are used for safety investigations of vaccines (e.g., CoVaccine HT or Aflunov) (Heldens et al., 2010; Gasparini et al., 2012) . In recent years the shedding of avian IAV by cottontails (Sylvilagus spp.) was investigated revealing that nasally and orally inoculated cottontails shed relatively large quantities of viral RNA (Root et al., 2014) . Notably, low viral titers were found to be sufficient to initiate viral replication in cottontails (Root et al., 2017) . However, despite their susceptibility to IAV infection, rabbits are only rarely used as model for IAV pathogenesis since they offer no improvement over other established infection models. Macaques represent the major non-human primate for studying infectious diseases. They are omnivorous and adaptable. The species most commonly used are rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) and cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fasciluraris). Although it was shown early that macaques were susceptible to IAV (Saslaw et al., 1946) , the animal models of choice remained ferrets and mice. Recently, macaques have been used to compare the pathogenesis of highly virulent 1918 pandemic IAV and the pathogenic bird flu strain (H5N1) with a conventional H1N1 strain (Rimmelzwaan et al., 2001) . Cynomolgus macaques infected with highly pathogenic H5N1 developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, fever, and necrotizing pneumonia (Rimmelzwaan et al., 2001) . The 1918 IAV strain induced dysregulation of the antiviral response leading to insufficient protection of the host, which in turn resulted in acute respiratory distress and a fatal outcome (Kobasa et al., 2007) . The 2009 pandemic H1N1 US isolate caused severe pathological lesions in the lungs of the macaques (Itoh et al., 2009 ). The three studies mentioned above used combined intratracheal delivery of high doses of virus. A recent study by Marriott et al. analyzed the outcome of challenge routes, including inhaled aerosol and intra-nasal instillation with low to moderate doses of H1N1 in cynomolgus macaques (Marriott et al., 2016) . Virus replication was detected in all challenge groups, although the disease remained sub-clinical. In bacteriological studies non-human primates are rarely used. For group A streptococcal infection longitudinal transcriptome analyses were performed in experimental pharyngitis (Virtaneva et al., 2005) and lower respiratory tract infection in cynomolgus macaques (Olsen et al., 2010a) . The lower respiratory tract disease observed in macaques after GAS infection mimicked the clinical and pathological features of severe bronchopneumonia in humans (Olsen et al., 2010a) . Another study by Olsen and colleagues analyzed the contribution of PVL of a highly virulent USA300 S. aureus strain in respiratory infection (Olsen et al., 2010b) . Although the lower respiratory tract disease observed in monkey mimicked the clinical and pathological features of early mild to moderate pneumonia in humans, no involvement of PVL in lung pathology or immune cell influx of the lungs could be detected (Olsen et al., 2010b) . The same research group has developed a non-lethal IAV (H3N2)-S. aureus co-infection model in cynomolgus macaques (Kobayashi et al., 2013) . Pneumonia progression was monitored by clinical parameters assessment, blood chemistry, nasal swabs, and pathology of the lungs. Seasonal IAV infection in healthy cynomolgus macaques caused mild pneumonia, but did not predispose the animals to subsequent severe infection with the USA300 clone (Kobayashi et al., 2013) . Although macaques are frequently used for evaluation of pneumococcal vaccine efficacy, including testing the impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine on antigen-specific memory B cell repertoires (Jia et al., 2017) , only two studies on pneumococcal carriage and pneumonia were conducted in the last decade. In 2013, Philipp and colleagues analyzed the carriage rate of pneumococcus in 158 colony animals. None of the surveyed rhesus macaques carried S. pneumoniae in the nasopharynx (Philipp et al., 2012) . The authors concluded that rhesus macaque is probably not a natural host of pneumococci. But, when infants were colonized with 19F strain via nasopharyngeal instillation, the colonization was induced in eight of eight infants, lasted for 2 weeks in all animals and for 7 weeks in more than 60% (Philipp et al., 2012) . The same group tested detoxified pneumolysin (dPly) and pneumococcal histidine triad protein D (PhtD) as potential vaccine candidates to prevent pneumonia (Denoel et al., 2011) . After immunization the rhesus macaques were challenged with a 19F pneumococcal strain. AS02-adjuvanted PhtD-dPly vaccine protected the animals against S. pneumoniae-induced pneumonia, which was linked to the capacity (i) to greatly reduce bacterial load within the first week post-challenge and (ii) the levels of PhtD-and Ply-specific antibodies (Denoel et al., 2011) . Although only a few macaque studies on pneumonia exist, due to the close proximity to humans in terms of physiology and immunity, these animals can be a good model in the context of translational studies evaluating therapeutics and prophylaxis. Despite the wide use of different animal models, the optimal in vivo model for human pneumonia remains to be identified. Small mammals including rodents are well known from a biological, genetic, and immunological point of view and are easy to maintain. The choice of these particular animals for infectious disease studies is often a result of a compromise between technical and financial options. However, they are also far from humans' anatomy, physiology, immunology, and susceptibility to exclusively human pathogens. The experimental animal model should be chosen based on responses comparable to humans. Primates are usually legally reserved to specific topics. In this case, pigs could be an appropriate model system for studying infectious diseases including pneumonia (Figure 1) . The composition and size of the porcine genome is comparable to that of humans (Hart et al., 2007) . In addition, human and porcine organs have many common features and functions (Swindle et al., 2012) . The upper respiratory tract of humans and pigs, including the lymphoid tissue in the nasopharynx, is anatomically similar. Furthermore, like humans, pigs possess tonsils, which are absent in mice (Horter et al., 2003) . A major advantage of studying infectious diseases by utilizing pigs as a host organism is that pigs have a full set of innate and adaptive immune effectors. According to whole genome sequencing results the porcine immune system resembles over 80% of the human immune system, whereas mice share less than 10% with humans (Dawson et al., 2016) . Most of the immune cell compartments identified in humans are also present in pigs (Piriou-Guzylack and Salmon, 2008; Fairbairn et al., 2011) . In contrast to mice and similar to humans, pigs have 50-70% of circulating polymorph nuclear cells (Fairbairn et al., 2011) . In addition, all functional cytokines or orthologs involved in Th1, Th2, Th17, and Treg paradigm and corresponding immune cells have been described in pigs (Murtaugh et al., 2009; Kaser et al., 2011; Kiros et al., 2011) . Especially the very prominent human pro-inflammatory chemo-attractant, CXCL8, is present as an ortholog in pigs, whereas there is no homologue in mice (Fairbairn et al., 2011) . In contrast to human monocytes, which can be divided in three subclasses (classical CD14 + CD16 − , nonclassical CD14 + CD16 + , and intermediate CD14 ++ CD16 + ), porcine monocytes consist of four subclasses (Chamorro et al., 2005; Fairbairn et al., 2013) . Like human monocytes they express adhesion molecules, such as VLA-4 and LFA-1 and costimulatory molecules, including CD80 and CD86 (Chamorro et al., 2005) . The pig has previously been used to mimic a number of human infectious diseases. Examples for S. aureus infections with this model organism are wound infections Svedman et al., 1989) , osteomyelitis (Jensen et al., 2010) , and sepsis (Nielsen et al., 2009) . Intravenous inoculation of piglets with pneumococci led to bacteremia during a 5 days period and was associated with fever and septic arthritis. Intranasal inoculation of piglets led to colonization for at least six consecutive days without causing clinical signs (De Greeff et al., 2016) . In addition, research on respiratory infections of pigs by human pathogens including S. aureus (Luna et al., 2009) , Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Gil et al., 2010) , Bordetella pertussis (Elahi et al., 2007) , Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Luna et al., 2009) , and IAV (Khatri et al., 2010) , was performed in recent years. The fact that pigs and humans are infected with identical subtypes of IAV (H1N1, H3N2), and show similar clinical presentation and pathogenesis, makes pigs an ideal model organism for studies on respiratory co-infections (Van Reeth et al., 1998) . Especially IAV infections are already well established in swine (Van Reeth et al., 1998 , 2002a Jung et al., 2007; Khatri et al., 2010; Barbe et al., 2011) . In addition to the limited number of publications on pigs and human pathogens, a lot can be translated and learned from studies on the porcine zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus suis. S. suis usually inhabits mucosal surfaces of tonsils, nares, genital and alimentary tract of piglets. Once the microbial balance is disturbed, the bacteria can cause meningitis, septicemia, arthritis, and pneumonia in pigs (Staats et al., 1997) . Some S. suis strains are considered to be hyper-virulent and others hypo-or avirulent. In general, serotype 2 is most frequently isolated from diseased pigs (Staats et al., 1997) . S. suis can also cause severe diseases in humans including septicemia, meningitis, arthritis, and streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (Tang et al., 2006; Yu et al., 2006; Gottschalk et al., 2007) . Although many in vivo studies on S. suis have been performed by utilizing mice as a model organism (Seitz et al., 2012; Auger et al., 2016) , several other studies have shown the advantage of using swine as a natural host for S. suis (Bi et al., 2014; Ferrando et al., 2015) . A recent publication by Lin and colleagues on H1N1 and S. suis co-infected piglets demonstrated the synergistic effects of both pathogens (Lin et al., 2015) . Co-infected piglets had more severe clinical presentation and pathological changes in the lung, as compared to animals infected with single pathogens (Lin et al., 2015) . In addition, genes associated with immune responses, inflammatory cytokine production, and apoptotic pathways were highly overexpressed in the coinfected group (Lin et al., 2015) . Although the porcine model seems to be ideal to mimic human infectious diseases, there are also disadvantages, including, e.g., requirement for specialized experimental animal facilities, time consuming management, high maintenance costs, and limited availability of transgenic animals. Although the use of animals contributes greatly to our understanding of infectious diseases, human 3D-organotypic tissue models and ex vivo organ tissues should be considered, as they are most valuable tools to study host-pathogen interactions in a more complex setting (Figure 1) . Tissue engineering approaches were originally focused on regenerative medicine (Langer and Vacanti, 1993) . In contrast to standard monolayer cell cultures, tissue models much more closely resemble the 3D architecture, cellular composition, and matrix complexity of the respective organ. In recent years tissue engineering was also successfully employed in a number of studies in infectious diseases, including Zika virus infections of cerebral organoids (Lancaster et al., 2013; Dang et al., 2016) , Helicobacter pylori infections of gastric epithelial organoids (McCracken et al., 2014; Schlaermann et al., 2016) , Escherichia coli and Rotavirus infections of gastrointestinal and small intestinal enteroids (Saxena et al., 2015; VanDussen et al., 2015) , Entamoeba histolytica or Hepatitis B virus infections of hepatic sinusoid tissue (Petropolis et al., 2014 (Petropolis et al., , 2016 , group A and G streptococcal or staphylococcal infections of skin tissue models Mairpady Shambat et al., 2016) , and staphylococcal and Andes hantavirus infections of human lung tissue (Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015; Sundstrom et al., 2016) . The adaptability of these tissue-engineered models to multiple pathogens suggests a great potential for studies of infectious diseases. For instance, the lung tissue model relevant for pneumonia consists of lung fibroblasts embedded in a collagen matrix with a stratified epithelial layer on top (Nguyen Hoang et al., 2012) . The engineered tissue is suitable for implanting and studying immune cells, including dendritic cells, monocytes, macrophages, and even peripheral blood mononuclear cells (Nguyen Hoang et al., 2012; Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015) . A recent publication demonstrated a two-hit-event of lung pathology in staphylococcal necrotizing pneumonia (Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015) . While the α-toxin had direct damaging effect on the lung epithelium, PVL induced lung pathology indirectly through the lysis of neutrophils (Mairpady Shambat et al., 2015) . All the studies mentioned above highlight a significant progress in the field of infectious diseases not only from a scientific point of view but also by contributing to the three R principle of animal experimentation (Russell, 1995) . On these terms, the use of cultured ex vivo human organ biopsies, which are rare due to ethical considerations, is an additional option to study host-pathogen interactions. This ex vivo system may overcome even the limitations of the engineered tissue. In recent years human ex vivo lung tissue infections with various microorganisms, including pneumococci (Szymanski et al., 2012; Fatykhova et al., 2015) , Bacillus anthracis (Chakrabarty et al., 2007) , Haemophilus influenzae (Zhang et al., 2016) , and IAV (Nicholls et al., 2007; Chan et al., 2009) , were performed. In the human setting, most of the work focused on tropism, severity of infections, release of inflammatory mediators, and replication rates of the microorganisms. In addition, recently also experiments on swine influenza virus (SIV) and S. suis co-infections of the porcine ex vivo lung slices were reported. Meng and colleagues showed that SIV promotes subsequent bacterial infections in a two-step process of which the first initial step was dependent on capsule expression, whereas the second step of bacterial invasion into deeper layers was capsuleindependent and required virus-mediated damage (Meng et al., 2015) . However, this is just a beginning and more investigations are needed to unravel the complexity underlying these highly invasive infections. In summary, bacterial and viral co-infections of the respiratory tract are highly lethal and present a dramatic burden for the global health system. The synergy between bacterial and viral infectious agents is related to a variety of factors, including epithelial barrier damage, exaggerated innate immune response, and cytokine storm. Despite many advances in recent years, more knowledge on mechanisms and immunology of disease progression is needed. The synergistic mechanisms between viruses and bacteria leading to enhanced morbidity and mortality are poorly understood. In vivo characterizations of these severe infections are mainly performed in mice which poorly resemble the human physiology and immune system. Several efforts have been made to establish other models, including ferrets, guinea pigs, rabbits, rats, and non-human primates. However, all have limitations. Here, we suggest using the porcine model, which provides obvious advantages in studies of human infectious diseases and should be considered much more frequent for future studies on severe infectious diseases, including pneumonia.

What enhances the expression of type I interferon?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What additional effects are caused in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp ?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

How is the serum antibody response measured?

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Seth Flaxmani Swapnil Mishra*, Axel Gandy*, H JulietteT Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba’, Gina Cuomo—Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Wi|| Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Ben Jeffrey, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati—Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Kris Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver Watson, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, NeilM.Ferguson1and Samir Bhatt*1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul LatifJameeI Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London Department of Statistics, University of Oxford *Contributed equally 1Correspondence: nei|.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk, s.bhatt@imperial.ac.uk Summary Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national Iockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number— a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of Iockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented a|| interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-Z up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% ofthe population. The proportion of the population infected to date — the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-Z is slowing. SUGGESTED CITATION Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy et 0/. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non— pharmaceutical interventions on COVID—19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 1 Introduction Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its global spread, large epidemics of the disease, caused by the virus designated COVID-19, have emerged in Europe. In response to the rising numbers of cases and deaths, and to maintain the capacity of health systems to treat as many severe cases as possible, European countries, like those in other continents, have implemented or are in the process of implementing measures to control their epidemics. These large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions vary between countries but include social distancing (such as banning large gatherings and advising individuals not to socialize outside their households), border closures, school closures, measures to isolate symptomatic individuals and their contacts, and large-scale lockdowns of populations with all but essential internal travel banned. Understanding firstly, whether these interventions are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic and secondly, which interventions are necessary to maintain control, is critical given their large economic and social costs. The key aim ofthese interventions is to reduce the effective reproduction number, Rt, ofthe infection, a fundamental epidemiological quantity representing the average number of infections, at time t, per infected case over the course of their infection. Ith is maintained at less than 1, the incidence of new infections decreases, ultimately resulting in control of the epidemic. If Rt is greater than 1, then infections will increase (dependent on how much greater than 1 the reproduction number is) until the epidemic peaks and eventually declines due to acquisition of herd immunity. In China, strict movement restrictions and other measures including case isolation and quarantine began to be introduced from 23rd January, which achieved a downward trend in the number of confirmed new cases during February, resulting in zero new confirmed indigenous cases in Wuhan by March 19th. Studies have estimated how Rt changed during this time in different areas ofChina from around 2-4 during the uncontrolled epidemic down to below 1, with an estimated 7-9 fold decrease in the number of daily contacts per person.1'2 Control measures such as social distancing, intensive testing, and contact tracing in other countries such as Singapore and South Korea have successfully reduced case incidence in recent weeks, although there is a riskthe virus will spread again once control measures are relaxed.3'4 The epidemic began slightly laterin Europe, from January or later in different regions.5 Countries have implemented different combinations of control measures and the level of adherence to government recommendations on social distancing is likely to vary between countries, in part due to different levels of enforcement. Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-Z presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by health systems”7 and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high-risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systematically biased view of trends. An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back-calculate infections from observed deaths. Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable, although the early focus of most surveillance systems on cases with reported travel histories to China may mean that some early deaths will have been missed. Whilst the recent trends in deaths will therefore be informative, there is a time lag in observing the effect of interventions on deaths since there is a 2-3-week period between infection, onset of symptoms and outcome. In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds (Bayesian credible intervals) of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities, and the reproduction number over time (Rt). We fit the model jointly to COVID-19 data from all these countries to assess whether there is evidence that interventions have so far been successful at reducing Rt below 1, with the strong assumption that particular interventions are achieving a similar impact in different countries and that the efficacy of those interventions remains constant over time. The model is informed more strongly by countries with larger numbers of deaths and which implemented interventions earlier, therefore estimates of recent Rt in countries with more recent interventions are contingent on similar intervention impacts. Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation of country-specific Rt with greater precision. Model and data details are presented in the appendix, validation and sensitivity are also presented in the appendix, and general limitations presented below in the conclusions. 2 Results The timing of interventions should be taken in the context of when an individual country’s epidemic started to grow along with the speed with which control measures were implemented. Italy was the first to begin intervention measures, and other countries followed soon afterwards (Figure 1). Most interventions began around 12th-14th March. We analyzed data on deaths up to 28th March, giving a 2-3-week window over which to estimate the effect of interventions. Currently, most countries in our study have implemented all major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For each country, we model the number of infections, the number of deaths, and Rt, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced (Figure 2- 12). Rt is the average number of secondary infections per infected individual, assuming that the interventions that are in place at time t stay in place throughout their entire infectious period. Every country has its own individual starting reproduction number Rt before interventions take place. Specific interventions are assumed to have the same relative impact on Rt in each country when they were introduced there and are informed by mortality data across all countries. Figure l: Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. For further details see Appendix 8.6. 2.1 Estimated true numbers of infections and current attack rates In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected (Figure 2) than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity. In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th, giving an attack rate of 9.8% [3.2%-25%] of the population (Table 1). Spain has recently seen a large increase in the number of deaths, and given its smaller population, our model estimates that a higher proportion of the population, 15.0% (7.0 [18-19] million people) have been infected to date. Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% with 600,000 [240,000-1,500,000] people infected. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table l: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible intervall) Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%] Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%] Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%] France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%] Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%] Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%] Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%] Spain 15% [3.7%-41%] Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%] Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%] United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] 2.2 Reproduction numbers and impact of interventions Averaged across all countries, we estimate initial reproduction numbers of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66], which is in line with other estimates.1'8 These estimates are informed by our choice of serial interval distribution and the initial growth rate of observed deaths. A shorter assumed serial interval results in lower starting reproduction numbers (Appendix 8.4.2, Appendix 8.4.6). The initial reproduction numbers are also uncertain due to (a) importation being the dominant source of new infections early in the epidemic, rather than local transmission (b) possible under-ascertainment in deaths particularly before testing became widespread. We estimate large changes in Rt in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. Overall, we cannot yet conclude whether current interventions are sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (posterior probability of being less than 1.0 is 44% on average across the countries). We are also unable to conclude whether interventions may be different between countries or over time. There remains a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. It is too early to detect substantial intervention impact in many countries at earlier stages of their epidemic (e.g. Germany, UK, Norway). Many interventions have occurred only recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the time lag between infection and death. This uncertainty will reduce as more data become available. For all countries, our model fits observed deaths data well (Bayesian goodness of fit tests). We also found that our model can reliably forecast daily deaths 3 days into the future, by withholding the latest 3 days of data and comparing model predictions to observed deaths (Appendix 8.3). The close spacing of interventions in time made it statistically impossible to determine which had the greatest effect (Figure 1, Figure 4). However, when doing a sensitivity analysis (Appendix 8.4.3) with uninformative prior distributions (where interventions can increase deaths) we find similar impact of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team interventions, which shows that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Figure 2: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt. Left: daily number of infections, brown bars are reported infections, blue bands are predicted infections, dark blue 50% credible interval (CI), light blue 95% CI. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if the Rt is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle: daily number of deaths, brown bars are reported deaths, blue bands are predicted deaths, CI as in left plot. Right: time-varying reproduction number Rt, dark green 50% CI, light green 95% CI. Icons are interventions shown at the time they occurred. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table 2: Totalforecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to 31 March in our model and in a counterfactual model (assuming no intervention had taken place). Estimated averted deaths over this time period as a result of the interventions. Numbers in brackets are 95% credible intervals. 2.3 Estimated impact of interventions on deaths Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31 March under ourfitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and R, = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3). Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments —WA|C). By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000- 84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted. These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. lfwe were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher. Figure 3: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for (a) Italy and (b) Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. Other countries are shown in Appendix 8.6. 03/0 25% 50% 753% 100% (no effect on transmissibility) (ends transmissibility Relative % reduction in R. Figure 4: Our model includes five covariates for governmental interventions, adjusting for whether the intervention was the first one undertaken by the government in response to COVID-19 (red) or was subsequent to other interventions (green). Mean relative percentage reduction in Rt is shown with 95% posterior credible intervals. If 100% reduction is achieved, Rt = 0 and there is no more transmission of COVID-19. No effects are significantly different from any others, probably due to the fact that many interventions occurred on the same day or within days of each other as shown in Figure l. 3 Discussion During this early phase of control measures against the novel coronavirus in Europe, we analyze trends in numbers of deaths to assess the extent to which transmission is being reduced. Representing the COVlD-19 infection process using a semi-mechanistic, joint, Bayesian hierarchical model, we can reproduce trends observed in the data on deaths and can forecast accurately over short time horizons. We estimate that there have been many more infections than are currently reported. The high level of under-ascertainment of infections that we estimate here is likely due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community. Despite this, only a small minority of individuals in each country have been infected, with an attack rate on average of 4.9% [l.9%-ll%] with considerable variation between countries (Table 1). Our estimates imply that the populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity ("50-75% if R0 is 2-4). Further, with Rt values dropping substantially, the rate of acquisition of herd immunity will slow down rapidly. This implies that the virus will be able to spread rapidly should interventions be lifted. Such estimates of the attack rate to date urgently need to be validated by newly developed antibody tests in representative population surveys, once these become available. We estimate that major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact on the time- varying reproduction numbers in countries where there has been time to observe intervention effects on trends in deaths (Italy, Spain). lfadherence in those countries has changed since that initial period, then our forecast of future deaths will be affected accordingly: increasing adherence over time will have resulted in fewer deaths and decreasing adherence in more deaths. Similarly, our estimates of the impact ofinterventions in other countries should be viewed with caution if the same interventions have achieved different levels of adherence than was initially the case in Italy and Spain. Due to the implementation of interventions in rapid succession in many countries, there are not enough data to estimate the individual effect size of each intervention, and we discourage attributing associations to individual intervention. In some cases, such as Norway, where all interventions were implemented at once, these individual effects are by definition unidentifiable. Despite this, while individual impacts cannot be determined, their estimated joint impact is strongly empirically justified (see Appendix 8.4 for sensitivity analysis). While the growth in daily deaths has decreased, due to the lag between infections and deaths, continued rises in daily deaths are to be expected for some time. To understand the impact of interventions, we fit a counterfactual model without the interventions and compare this to the actual model. Consider Italy and the UK - two countries at very different stages in their epidemics. For the UK, where interventions are very recent, much of the intervention strength is borrowed from countries with older epidemics. The results suggest that interventions will have a large impact on infections and deaths despite counts of both rising. For Italy, where far more time has passed since the interventions have been implemented, it is clear that the model without interventions does not fit well to the data, and cannot explain the sub-linear (on the logarithmic scale) reduction in deaths (see Figure 10). The counterfactual model for Italy suggests that despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe where the number of new deaths would have been 3.7 times higher (38,000 deaths averted) than currently observed. Even in the UK, much earlier in its epidemic, the recent interventions are forecasted to avert 370 total deaths up to 31 of March. 4 Conclusion and Limitations Modern understanding of infectious disease with a global publicized response has meant that nationwide interventions could be implemented with widespread adherence and support. Given observed infection fatality ratios and the epidemiology of COVlD-19, major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact in reducing transmission in countries with more advanced epidemics. It is too early to be sure whether similar reductions will be seen in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic. While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths. When forecasting 3 days and looking over the whole epidemic the number of deaths averted is substantial. We note that substantial innovation is taking place, and new more effective interventions or refinements of current interventions, alongside behavioral changes will further contribute to reductions in infections. We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism. Our approach is semi-mechanistic. We propose a plausible structure for the infection process and then estimate parameters empirically. However, many parameters had to be given strong prior distributions or had to be fixed. For these assumptions, we have provided relevant citations to previous studies. As more data become available and better estimates arise, we will update these in weekly reports. Our choice of serial interval distribution strongly influences the prior distribution for starting R0. Our infection fatality ratio, and infection-to-onset-to-death distributions strongly influence the rate of death and hence the estimated number of true underlying cases. We also assume that the effect of interventions is the same in all countries, which may not be fully realistic. This assumption implies that countries with early interventions and more deaths since these interventions (e.g. Italy, Spain) strongly influence estimates of intervention impact in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic with fewer deaths (e.g. Germany, UK). We have tried to create consistent definitions of all interventions and document details of this in Appendix 8.6. However, invariably there will be differences from country to country in the strength of their intervention — for example, most countries have banned gatherings of more than 2 people when implementing a lockdown, whereas in Sweden the government only banned gatherings of more than 10 people. These differences can skew impacts in countries with very little data. We believe that our uncertainty to some degree can cover these differences, and as more data become available, coefficients should become more reliable. However, despite these strong assumptions, there is sufficient signal in the data to estimate changes in R, (see the sensitivity analysis reported in Appendix 8.4.3) and this signal will stand to increase with time. In our Bayesian hierarchical framework, we robustly quantify the uncertainty in our parameter estimates and posterior predictions. This can be seen in the very wide credible intervals in more recent days, where little or no death data are available to inform the estimates. Furthermore, we predict intervention impact at country-level, but different trends may be in place in different parts of each country. For example, the epidemic in northern Italy was subject to controls earlier than the rest of the country. 5 Data Our model utilizes daily real-time death data from the ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), where we catalogue case data for 11 European countries currently experiencing the epidemic: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The ECDC provides information on confirmed cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19. However, the case data are highly unrepresentative of the incidence of infections due to underreporting as well as systematic and country-specific changes in testing. We, therefore, use only deaths attributable to COVID-19 in our model; we do not use the ECDC case estimates at all. While the observed deaths still have some degree of unreliability, again due to changes in reporting and testing, we believe the data are ofsufficient fidelity to model. For population counts, we use UNPOP age-stratified counts.10 We also catalogue data on the nature and type of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. We looked at the government webpages from each country as well as their official public health division/information webpages to identify the latest advice/laws being issued by the government and public health authorities. We collected the following: School closure ordered: This intervention refers to nationwide extraordinary school closures which in most cases refer to both primary and secondary schools closing (for most countries this also includes the closure of otherforms of higher education or the advice to teach remotely). In the case of Denmark and Sweden, we allowed partial school closures of only secondary schools. The date of the school closure is taken to be the effective date when the schools started to be closed (ifthis was on a Monday, the date used was the one of the previous Saturdays as pupils and students effectively stayed at home from that date onwards). Case-based measures: This intervention comprises strong recommendations or laws to the general public and primary care about self—isolation when showing COVID-19-like symptoms. These also include nationwide testing programs where individuals can be tested and subsequently self—isolated. Our definition is restricted to nationwide government advice to all individuals (e.g. UK) or to all primary care and excludes regional only advice. These do not include containment phase interventions such as isolation if travelling back from an epidemic country such as China. Public events banned: This refers to banning all public events of more than 100 participants such as sports events. Social distancing encouraged: As one of the first interventions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have published advice on social distancing including the recommendation to work from home wherever possible, reducing use ofpublictransport and all other non-essential contact. The dates used are those when social distancing has officially been recommended by the government; the advice may include maintaining a recommended physical distance from others. Lockdown decreed: There are several different scenarios that the media refers to as lockdown. As an overall definition, we consider regulations/legislations regarding strict face-to-face social interaction: including the banning of any non-essential public gatherings, closure of educational and public/cultural institutions, ordering people to stay home apart from exercise and essential tasks. We include special cases where these are not explicitly mentioned on government websites but are enforced by the police (e.g. France). The dates used are the effective dates when these legislations have been implemented. We note that lockdown encompasses other interventions previously implemented. First intervention: As Figure 1 shows, European governments have escalated interventions rapidly, and in some examples (Norway/Denmark) have implemented these interventions all on a single day. Therefore, given the temporal autocorrelation inherent in government intervention, we include a binary covariate for the first intervention, which can be interpreted as a government decision to take major action to control COVID-19. A full list of the timing of these interventions and the sources we have used can be found in Appendix 8.6. 6 Methods Summary A Visual summary of our model is presented in Figure 5 (details in Appendix 8.1 and 8.2). Replication code is available at https://github.com/|mperia|CollegeLondon/covid19model/releases/tag/vl.0 We fit our model to observed deaths according to ECDC data from 11 European countries. The modelled deaths are informed by an infection-to-onset distribution (time from infection to the onset of symptoms), an onset-to-death distribution (time from the onset of symptoms to death), and the population-averaged infection fatality ratio (adjusted for the age structure and contact patterns of each country, see Appendix). Given these distributions and ratios, modelled deaths are a function of the number of infections. The modelled number of infections is informed by the serial interval distribution (the average time from infection of one person to the time at which they infect another) and the time-varying reproduction number. Finally, the time-varying reproduction number is a function of the initial reproduction number before interventions and the effect sizes from interventions. Figure 5: Summary of model components. Following the hierarchy from bottom to top gives us a full framework to see how interventions affect infections, which can result in deaths. We use Bayesian inference to ensure our modelled deaths can reproduce the observed deaths as closely as possible. From bottom to top in Figure 5, there is an implicit lag in time that means the effect of very recent interventions manifest weakly in current deaths (and get stronger as time progresses). To maximise the ability to observe intervention impact on deaths, we fit our model jointly for all 11 European countries, which results in a large data set. Our model jointly estimates the effect sizes of interventions. We have evaluated the effect ofour Bayesian prior distribution choices and evaluate our Bayesian posterior calibration to ensure our results are statistically robust (Appendix 8.4). 7 Acknowledgements Initial research on covariates in Appendix 8.6 was crowdsourced; we thank a number of people across the world for help with this. This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and CommunityJameel. 8 Appendix: Model Specifics, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 8.1 Death model We observe daily deaths Dam for days t E 1, ...,n and countries m E 1, ...,p. These daily deaths are modelled using a positive real-Valued function dam = E(Dam) that represents the expected number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Dam is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with The expected number of deaths (1 in a given country on a given day is a function of the number of infections C occurring in previous days. At the beginning of the epidemic, the observed deaths in a country can be dominated by deaths that result from infection that are not locally acquired. To avoid biasing our model by this, we only include observed deaths from the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths in our model. To mechanistically link ourfunction for deaths to infected cases, we use a previously estimated COVID- 19 infection-fatality-ratio ifr (probability of death given infection)9 together with a distribution oftimes from infection to death TE. The ifr is derived from estimates presented in Verity et al11 which assumed homogeneous attack rates across age-groups. To better match estimates of attack rates by age generated using more detailed information on country and age-specific mixing patterns, we scale these estimates (the unadjusted ifr, referred to here as ifr’) in the following way as in previous work.4 Let Ca be the number of infections generated in age-group a, Na the underlying size of the population in that age group and AR“ 2 Ca/Na the age-group-specific attack rate. The adjusted ifr is then given by: ifra = fififié, where AR50_59 is the predicted attack-rate in the 50-59 year age-group after incorporating country-specific patterns of contact and mixing. This age-group was chosen as the reference as it had the lowest predicted level of underreporting in previous analyses of data from the Chinese epidemic“. We obtained country-specific estimates of attack rate by age, AR“, for the 11 European countries in our analysis from a previous study which incorporates information on contact between individuals of different ages in countries across Europe.12 We then obtained overall ifr estimates for each country adjusting for both demography and age-specific attack rates. Using estimated epidemiological information from previous studies,“'11 we assume TE to be the sum of two independent random times: the incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms or infection- to-onset) distribution and the time between onset of symptoms and death (onset-to-death). The infection-to-onset distribution is Gamma distributed with mean 5.1 days and coefficient of variation 0.86. The onset-to-death distribution is also Gamma distributed with a mean of 18.8 days and a coefficient of va riation 0.45. ifrm is population averaged over the age structure of a given country. The infection-to-death distribution is therefore given by: um ~ ifrm ~ (Gamma(5.1,0.86) + Gamma(18.8,0.45)) Figure 6 shows the infection-to-death distribution and the resulting survival function that integrates to the infection fatality ratio. Figure 6: Left, infection-to-death distribution (mean 23.9 days). Right, survival probability of infected individuals per day given the infection fatality ratio (1%) and the infection-to-death distribution on the left. Using the probability of death distribution, the expected number of deaths dam, on a given day t, for country, m, is given by the following discrete sum: The number of deaths today is the sum of the past infections weighted by their probability of death, where the probability of death depends on the number of days since infection. 8.2 Infection model The true number of infected individuals, C, is modelled using a discrete renewal process. This approach has been used in numerous previous studies13'16 and has a strong theoretical basis in stochastic individual-based counting processes such as Hawkes process and the Bellman-Harris process.”18 The renewal model is related to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, except the renewal is not expressed in differential form. To model the number ofinfections over time we need to specify a serial interval distribution g with density g(T), (the time between when a person gets infected and when they subsequently infect another other people), which we choose to be Gamma distributed: g ~ Gamma (6.50.62). The serial interval distribution is shown below in Figure 7 and is assumed to be the same for all countries. Figure 7: Serial interval distribution g with a mean of 6.5 days. Given the serial interval distribution, the number of infections Eamon a given day t, and country, m, is given by the following discrete convolution function: _ t—1 Cam — Ram ZT=0 Cr,mgt—‘r r where, similarto the probability ofdeath function, the daily serial interval is discretized by fs+0.5 1.5 gs = T=s—0.Sg(T)dT fors = 2,3, and 91 = fT=Og(T)dT. Infections today depend on the number of infections in the previous days, weighted by the discretized serial interval distribution. This weighting is then scaled by the country-specific time-Varying reproduction number, Ram, that models the average number of secondary infections at a given time. The functional form for the time-Varying reproduction number was chosen to be as simple as possible to minimize the impact of strong prior assumptions: we use a piecewise constant function that scales Ram from a baseline prior R0,m and is driven by known major non-pharmaceutical interventions occurring in different countries and times. We included 6 interventions, one of which is constructed from the other 5 interventions, which are timings of school and university closures (k=l), self—isolating if ill (k=2), banning of public events (k=3), any government intervention in place (k=4), implementing a partial or complete lockdown (k=5) and encouraging social distancing and isolation (k=6). We denote the indicator variable for intervention k E 1,2,3,4,5,6 by IkI’m, which is 1 if intervention k is in place in country m at time t and 0 otherwise. The covariate ”any government intervention” (k=4) indicates if any of the other 5 interventions are in effect,i.e.14’t’m equals 1 at time t if any of the interventions k E 1,2,3,4,5 are in effect in country m at time t and equals 0 otherwise. Covariate 4 has the interpretation of indicating the onset of major government intervention. The effect of each intervention is assumed to be multiplicative. Ram is therefore a function ofthe intervention indicators Ik’t’m in place at time t in country m: Ram : R0,m eXp(— 212:1 O(Rheum)- The exponential form was used to ensure positivity of the reproduction number, with R0,m constrained to be positive as it appears outside the exponential. The impact of each intervention on Ram is characterised by a set of parameters 0(1, ...,OL6, with independent prior distributions chosen to be ock ~ Gamma(. 5,1). The impacts ock are shared between all m countries and therefore they are informed by all available data. The prior distribution for R0 was chosen to be R0,m ~ Normal(2.4, IKI) with K ~ Normal(0,0.5), Once again, K is the same among all countries to share information. We assume that seeding of new infections begins 30 days before the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths. From this date, we seed our model with 6 sequential days of infections drawn from cl’m,...,66’m~EXponential(T), where T~Exponential(0.03). These seed infections are inferred in our Bayesian posterior distribution. We estimated parameters jointly for all 11 countries in a single hierarchical model. Fitting was done in the probabilistic programming language Stan,19 using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. We ran 8 chains for 4000 iterations with 2000 iterations of warmup and a thinning factor 4 to obtain 2000 posterior samples. Posterior convergence was assessed using the Rhat statistic and by diagnosing divergent transitions of the HMC sampler. Prior-posterior calibrations were also performed (see below). 8.3 Validation We validate accuracy of point estimates of our model using cross-Validation. In our cross-validation scheme, we leave out 3 days of known death data (non-cumulative) and fit our model. We forecast what the model predicts for these three days. We present the individual forecasts for each day, as well as the average forecast for those three days. The cross-validation results are shown in the Figure 8. Figure 8: Cross-Validation results for 3-day and 3-day aggregatedforecasts Figure 8 provides strong empirical justification for our model specification and mechanism. Our accurate forecast over a three-day time horizon suggests that our fitted estimates for Rt are appropriate and plausible. Along with from point estimates we all evaluate our posterior credible intervals using the Rhat statistic. The Rhat statistic measures whether our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains have converged to the equilibrium distribution (the correct posterior distribution). Figure 9 shows the Rhat statistics for all of our parameters Figure 9: Rhat statistics - values close to 1 indicate MCMC convergence. Figure 9 indicates that our MCMC have converged. In fitting we also ensured that the MCMC sampler experienced no divergent transitions - suggesting non pathological posterior topologies. 8.4 SensitivityAnalysis 8.4.1 Forecasting on log-linear scale to assess signal in the data As we have highlighted throughout in this report, the lag between deaths and infections means that it ta kes time for information to propagate backwa rds from deaths to infections, and ultimately to Rt. A conclusion of this report is the prediction of a slowing of Rt in response to major interventions. To gain intuition that this is data driven and not simply a consequence of highly constrained model assumptions, we show death forecasts on a log-linear scale. On this scale a line which curves below a linear trend is indicative of slowing in the growth of the epidemic. Figure 10 to Figure 12 show these forecasts for Italy, Spain and the UK. They show this slowing down in the daily number of deaths. Our model suggests that Italy, a country that has the highest death toll of COVID-19, will see a slowing in the increase in daily deaths over the coming week compared to the early stages of the epidemic. We investigated the sensitivity of our estimates of starting and final Rt to our assumed serial interval distribution. For this we considered several scenarios, in which we changed the serial interval distribution mean, from a value of 6.5 days, to have values of 5, 6, 7 and 8 days. In Figure 13, we show our estimates of R0, the starting reproduction number before interventions, for each of these scenarios. The relative ordering of the Rt=0 in the countries is consistent in all settings. However, as expected, the scale of Rt=0 is considerably affected by this change — a longer serial interval results in a higher estimated Rt=0. This is because to reach the currently observed size of the epidemics, a longer assumed serial interval is compensated by a higher estimated R0. Additionally, in Figure 14, we show our estimates of Rt at the most recent model time point, again for each ofthese scenarios. The serial interval mean can influence Rt substantially, however, the posterior credible intervals of Rt are broadly overlapping. Figure 13: Initial reproduction number R0 for different serial interval (SI) distributions (means between 5 and 8 days). We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. Figure 14: Rt on 28 March 2020 estimated for all countries, with serial interval (SI) distribution means between 5 and 8 days. We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. 8.4.3 Uninformative prior sensitivity on or We ran our model using implausible uninformative prior distributions on the intervention effects, allowing the effect of an intervention to increase or decrease Rt. To avoid collinearity, we ran 6 separate models, with effects summarized below (compare with the main analysis in Figure 4). In this series of univariate analyses, we find (Figure 15) that all effects on their own serve to decrease Rt. This gives us confidence that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Lockdown has a very large effect, most likely due to the fact that it occurs after other interventions in our dataset. The relatively large effect sizes for the other interventions are most likely due to the coincidence of the interventions in time, such that one intervention is a proxy for a few others. Figure 15: Effects of different interventions when used as the only covariate in the model. 8.4.4 To assess prior assumptions on our piecewise constant functional form for Rt we test using a nonparametric function with a Gaussian process prior distribution. We fit a model with a Gaussian process prior distribution to data from Italy where there is the largest signal in death data. We find that the Gaussian process has a very similartrend to the piecewise constant model and reverts to the mean in regions of no data. The correspondence of a completely nonparametric function and our piecewise constant function suggests a suitable parametric specification of Rt. Nonparametric fitting of Rf using a Gaussian process: 8.4.5 Leave country out analysis Due to the different lengths of each European countries’ epidemic, some countries, such as Italy have much more data than others (such as the UK). To ensure that we are not leveraging too much information from any one country we perform a ”leave one country out” sensitivity analysis, where we rerun the model without a different country each time. Figure 16 and Figure 17 are examples for results for the UK, leaving out Italy and Spain. In general, for all countries, we observed no significant dependence on any one country. Figure 16: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Italy for fitting the model. See the Figure 17: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Spain for fitting the model. See caption of Figure 2 for an explanation of the plots. 8.4.6 Starting reproduction numbers vs theoretical predictions To validate our starting reproduction numbers, we compare our fitted values to those theoretically expected from a simpler model assuming exponential growth rate, and a serial interval distribution mean. We fit a linear model with a Poisson likelihood and log link function and extracting the daily growth rate r. For well-known theoretical results from the renewal equation, given a serial interval distribution g(r) with mean m and standard deviation 5, given a = mZ/S2 and b = m/SZ, and a subsequently R0 = (1 + %) .Figure 18 shows theoretically derived R0 along with our fitted estimates of Rt=0 from our Bayesian hierarchical model. As shown in Figure 18 there is large correspondence between our estimated starting reproduction number and the basic reproduction number implied by the growth rate r. R0 (red) vs R(FO) (black) Figure 18: Our estimated R0 (black) versus theoretically derived Ru(red) from a log-linear regression fit. 8.5 Counterfactual analysis — interventions vs no interventions Figure 19: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for all countries except Italy and Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 Page 28 of 35 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 8.6 Data sources and Timeline of Interventions Figure 1 and Table 3 display the interventions by the 11 countries in our study and the dates these interventions became effective. Table 3: Timeline of Interventions. Country Type Event Date effective School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.20 14/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of gatherings of more than 5 people.21 10/3/2020 Banning all access to public spaces and gatherings Lockdown of more than 5 people. Advice to maintain 1m ordered distance.22 16/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Recommendation to maintain a distance of 1m.22 16/3/2020 Case-based Austria measures Implemented at lockdown.22 16/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.23 14/3/2020 Public events All recreational activities cancelled regardless of banned size.23 12/3/2020 Citizens are required to stay at home except for Lockdown work and essential journeys. Going outdoors only ordered with household members or 1 friend.24 18/3/2020 Public transport recommended only for essential Social distancing journeys, work from home encouraged, all public encouraged places e.g. restaurants closed.23 14/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Belgium measures cough or fever.25 10/3/2020 School closure Secondary schools shut and universities (primary ordered schools also shut on 16th).26 13/3/2020 Public events Bans of events >100 people, closed cultural banned institutions, leisure facilities etc.27 12/3/2020 Lockdown Bans of gatherings of >10 people in public and all ordered public places were shut.27 18/3/2020 Limited use of public transport. All cultural Social distancing institutions shut and recommend keeping encouraged appropriate distance.28 13/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Denmark measures cough or fever.29 12/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.30 14/3/2020 Public events banned Bans of events >100 people.31 13/3/2020 Lockdown Everybody has to stay at home. Need a self- ordered authorisation form to leave home.32 17/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/3/2020 Case-based France measures Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/03/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.33 14/3/2020 Public events No gatherings of >1000 people. Otherwise banned regional restrictions only until lockdown.34 22/3/2020 Lockdown Gatherings of > 2 people banned, 1.5 m ordered distance.35 22/3/2020 Social distancing Avoid social interaction wherever possible encouraged recommended by Merkel.36 12/3/2020 Advice for everyone experiencing symptoms to Case-based contact a health care agency to get tested and Germany measures then self—isolate.37 6/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.38 5/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans all public events.39 9/3/2020 Lockdown The government closes all public places. People ordered have to stay at home except for essential travel.40 11/3/2020 A distance of more than 1m has to be kept and Social distancing any other form of alternative aggregation is to be encouraged excluded.40 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing symptoms Italy measures and quarantine if tested positive.41 9/3/2020 Norwegian Directorate of Health closes all School closure educational institutions. Including childcare ordered facilities and all schools.42 13/3/2020 Public events The Directorate of Health bans all non-necessary banned social contact.42 12/3/2020 Lockdown Only people living together are allowed outside ordered together. Everyone has to keep a 2m distance.43 24/3/2020 Social distancing The Directorate of Health advises against all encouraged travelling and non-necessary social contacts.42 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Norway measures cough or fever symptoms.44 15/3/2020 ordered Nationwide school closures.45 13/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of all public events by lockdown.46 14/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Nationwide lockdown.43 14/3/2020 Social distancing Advice on social distancing and working remotely encouraged from home.47 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Spain measures cough or fever symptoms.47 17/3/2020 School closure ordered Colleges and upper secondary schools shut.48 18/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >500 people.49 12/3/2020 Lockdown ordered No lockdown occurred. NA People even with mild symptoms are told to limit Social distancing social contact, encouragement to work from encouraged home.50 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Sweden measures fever symptoms.51 10/3/2020 School closure ordered No in person teaching until 4th of April.52 14/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >100 people.52 13/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Gatherings of more than 5 people are banned.53 2020-03-20 Advice on keeping distance. All businesses where Social distancing this cannot be realised have been closed in all encouraged states (kantons).54 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Switzerland measures fever symptoms.55 2/3/2020 Nationwide school closure. Childminders, School closure nurseries and sixth forms are told to follow the ordered guidance.56 21/3/2020 Public events banned Implemented with lockdown.57 24/3/2020 Gatherings of more than 2 people not from the Lockdown same household are banned and police ordered enforceable.57 24/3/2020 Social distancing Advice to avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other encouraged public institutions.58 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a UK measures cough or fever symptoms.59 12/3/2020 9 References 1. Li, R. et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (2020) doi:10.1126/science.abb3221. 2. Zhang, J. et al. Patterns of human social contact and contact with animals in Shanghai, China. 5cLRep.9,1—11(2019) 3. Worldometers.info. Hong Kong: coronavirus cases. https://www.wo rldometers.info/co ronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/. 4. Ferguson, N. et al. 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What is Austria's estimated mean percentage [95% credible interval] of total population infected as of 28th March?

Beyond phage display: non-traditional applications of the filamentous bacteriophage as a vaccine carrier, therapeutic biologic, and bioconjugation scaffold https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4523942/ SHA: f00f183d0bce0091a02349ec1eab44a76dad9bc4 Authors: Henry, Kevin A.; Arbabi-Ghahroudi, Mehdi; Scott, Jamie K. Date: 2015-08-04 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2015.00755 License: cc-by Abstract: For the past 25 years, phage display technology has been an invaluable tool for studies of protein–protein interactions. However, the inherent biological, biochemical, and biophysical properties of filamentous bacteriophage, as well as the ease of its genetic manipulation, also make it an attractive platform outside the traditional phage display canon. This review will focus on the unique properties of the filamentous bacteriophage and highlight its diverse applications in current research. Particular emphases are placed on: (i) the advantages of the phage as a vaccine carrier, including its high immunogenicity, relative antigenic simplicity and ability to activate a range of immune responses, (ii) the phage’s potential as a prophylactic and therapeutic agent for infectious and chronic diseases, (iii) the regularity of the virion major coat protein lattice, which enables a variety of bioconjugation and surface chemistry applications, particularly in nanomaterials, and (iv) the phage’s large population sizes and fast generation times, which make it an excellent model system for directed protein evolution. Despite their ubiquity in the biosphere, metagenomics work is just beginning to explore the ecology of filamentous and non-filamentous phage, and their role in the evolution of bacterial populations. Thus, the filamentous phage represents a robust, inexpensive, and versatile microorganism whose bioengineering applications continue to expand in new directions, although its limitations in some spheres impose obstacles to its widespread adoption and use. Text: The filamentous bacteriophage (genera Inovirus and Plectrovirus) are non-enveloped, rod-shaped viruses of Escherichia coli whose long helical capsids encapsulate a single-stranded circular DNA genome. Subsequent to the independent discovery of bacteriophage by Twort (1915) and d 'Hérelle (1917) , the first filamentous phage, f1, was isolated in Loeb (1960) and later characterized as a member of a larger group of phage (Ff, including f1, M13, and fd phage) specific for the E. coli conjugative F pilus (Hofschneider and Mueller-Jensen, 1963; Marvin and Hoffmann-Berling, 1963; Zinder et al., 1963; Salivar et al., 1964) . Soon thereafter, filamentous phage were discovered that do not use F-pili for entry (If and Ike; Meynell and Lawn, 1968; Khatoon et al., 1972) , and over time the list of known filamentous phage has expanded to over 60 members (Fauquet et al., 2005) , including temperate and Gram-positivetropic species. Work by multiple groups over the past 50 years has contributed to a relatively sophisticated understanding of filamentous phage structure, biology and life cycle (reviewed in Marvin, 1998; Rakonjac et al., 2011; Rakonjac, 2012) . In the mid-1980s, the principle of modifying the filamentous phage genome to display polypeptides as fusions to coat proteins on the virion surface was invented by Smith and colleagues (Smith, 1985; Parmley and Smith, 1988) . Based on the ideas described in Parmley and Smith (1988) , groups in California, Germany, and the UK developed phage-display platforms to create and screen libraries of peptide and folded-protein variants (Bass et al., 1990; Devlin et al., 1990; McCafferty et al., 1990; Scott and Smith, 1990; Breitling et al., 1991; Kang et al., 1991) . This technology allowed, for the first time, the ability to seamlessly connect genetic information with protein function for a large number of protein variants simultaneously, and has been widely and productively exploited in studies of proteinprotein interactions. Many excellent reviews are available on phage-display libraries and their applications (Kehoe and Kay, 2005; Bratkovic, 2010; Pande et al., 2010) . However, the phage also has a number of unique structural and biological properties that make it highly useful in areas of research that have received far less attention. Thus, the purpose of this review is to highlight recent and current work using filamentous phage in novel and nontraditional applications. Specifically, we refer to projects that rely on the filamentous phage as a key element, but whose primary purpose is not the generation or screening of phagedisplayed libraries to obtain binding polypeptide ligands. These tend to fall into four major categories of use: (i) filamentous phage as a vaccine carrier; (ii) engineered filamentous phage as a therapeutic biologic agent in infectious and chronic diseases; (iii) filamentous phage as a scaffold for bioconjugation and surface chemistry; and (iv) filamentous phage as an engine for evolving variants of displayed proteins with novel functions. A final section is dedicated to recent developments in filamentous phage ecology and phage-host interactions. Common themes shared amongst all these applications include the unique biological, immunological, and physicochemical properties of the phage, its ability to display a variety of biomolecules in modular fashion, and its relative simplicity and ease of manipulation. Nearly all applications of the filamentous phage depend on its ability to display polypeptides on the virion's surface as fusions to phage coat proteins ( Table 1) . The display mode determines the maximum tolerated size of the fused polypeptide, its copy number on the phage, and potentially, the structure of the displayed polypeptide. Display may be achieved by fusing DNA encoding a polypeptide of interest directly to the gene encoding a coat protein within the phage genome (type 8 display on pVIII, type 3 display on pIII, etc.), resulting in fully recombinant phage. Much more commonly, however, only one copy of the coat protein is modified in the presence of a second, wild-type copy (e.g., type 88 display if both recombinant and wild-type pVIII genes are on the phage genome, type 8+8 display if the Parmley and Smith (1988), McConnell et al. (1994) , Rondot et al. (2001) Hybrid (type 33 and 3+3 systems) Type 3+3 system <1 2 Smith and Scott (1993) , Smith and Petrenko (1997) pVI Hybrid (type 6+6 system) Yes <1 2 >25 kDa Hufton et al. (1999) pVII Fully recombinant (type 7 system) No ∼5 >25 kDa Kwasnikowski et al. (2005) Hybrid (type 7+7 system) Yes <1 2 Gao et al. (1999) pVIII Fully recombinant (landscape phage; type 8 system) No 2700 3 ∼5-8 residues Kishchenko et al. (1994) , Petrenko et al. (1996) Hybrid (type 88 and 8+8 systems) Type 8+8 system ∼1-300 2 >50 kDa Scott and Smith (1990) , Greenwood et al. (1991) , Smith and Fernandez (2004) pIX Fully recombinant (type 9+9 * system) Yes ∼5 >25 kDa Gao et al. (2002) Hybrid (type 9+9 system) No <1 2 Gao et al. (1999) , Shi et al. (2010) , Tornetta et al. (2010) 1 Asterisks indicate non-functional copies of the coat protein are present in the genome of the helper phage used to rescue a phagemid whose coat protein has been fused to a recombinant polypeptide. 2 The copy number depends on polypeptide size; typically <1 copy per phage particle but for pVIII peptide display can be up to ∼15% of pVIII molecules in hybrid virions. 3 The total number of pVIII molecules depends on the phage genome size; one pVIII molecule is added for every 2.3 nucleotides in the viral genome. recombinant gene 8 is on a plasmid with a phage origin of replication) resulting in a hybrid virion bearing two different types of a given coat protein. Multivalent display on some coat proteins can also be enforced using helper phage bearing nonfunctional copies of the relevant coat protein gene (e.g., type 3 * +3 display). By far the most commonly used coat proteins for display are the major coat protein, pVIII, and the minor coat protein, pIII, with the major advantage of the former being higher copy number display (up to ∼15% of recombinant pVIII molecules in a hybrid virion, at least for short peptide fusions), and of the latter being the ability to display some folded proteins at an appreciable copy number (1-5 per phage particle). While pVIII display of folded proteins on hybrid phage is possible, it typically results in a copy number of much less than 1 per virion (Sidhu et al., 2000) . For the purposes of this review, we use the term "phage display" to refer to a recombinant filamentous phage displaying a single polypeptide sequence on its surface (or more rarely, bispecific display achieved via fusion of polypeptides to two different capsid proteins), and the term "phage-displayed library" to refer to a diverse pool of recombinant filamentous phage displaying an array of polypeptide variants (e.g., antibody fragments; peptides). Such libraries are typically screened by iterative cycles of panning against an immobilized protein of interest (e.g., antigen for phage-displayed antibody libraries; antibody for phage-displayed peptide libraries) followed by amplification of the bound phage in E. coli cells. Early work with anti-phage antisera generated for species classification purposes demonstrated that the filamentous phage virion is highly immunogenic in the absence of adjuvants (Meynell and Lawn, 1968 ) and that only the major coat protein, pVIII, and the minor coat protein, pIII, are targeted by antibodies (Pratt et al., 1969; Woolford et al., 1977) . Thus, the idea of using the phage as carrier to elicit antibodies against poorly immunogenic haptens or polypeptide was a natural extension of the ability to display recombinant exogenous sequences on its surface, which was first demonstrated by de la Cruz et al. (1988) . The phage particle's low cost of production, high stability and potential for high valency display of foreign antigen (via pVIII display) also made it attractive as a vaccine carrier, especially during the early stages of development of recombinant protein technology. Building upon existing peptide-carrier technology, the first filamentous phage-based vaccine immunogens displayed short amino acid sequences derived directly from proteins of interest as recombinant fusions to pVIII or pIII (de la Cruz et al., 1988) . As library technology was developed and refined, phage-based antigens displaying peptide ligands of monoclonal antibodies (selected from random peptide libraries using the antibody, thus simulating with varying degrees of success the antibody's folded epitope on its cognate antigen; Geysen et al., 1986; Knittelfelder et al., 2009) were also generated for immunization purposes, with the goal of eliciting anti-peptide antibodies that also recognize the native protein. Some of the pioneering work in this area used peptides derived from infectious disease antigens (or peptide ligands of antibodies against these antigens; Table 2) , including malaria and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). When displayed on phage, peptides encoding the repeat regions of the malarial circumsporozoite protein and merozoite surface protein 1 were immunogenic in mice and rabbits (de la Cruz et al., 1988; Greenwood et al., 1991; Willis et al., 1993; Demangel et al., 1996) , and antibodies raised against the latter cross-reacted with the full-length protein. Various peptide determinants (or mimics thereof) of HIV-1 gp120, gp41, gag, and reverse transcriptase were immunogenic when displayed on or conjugated to phage coat proteins (Minenkova et al., 1993; di Marzo Veronese et al., 1994; De Berardinis et al., 1999; Scala et al., 1999; Chen et al., 2001; van Houten et al., 2006 van Houten et al., , 2010 , and in some cases elicited antibodies that were able to weakly neutralize lab-adapted viruses (di Marzo Veronese et al., 1994; Scala et al., 1999) . The list of animal and human infections for which phage-displayed peptide immunogens have been developed as vaccine leads continues to expand and includes bacterial, fungal, viral, and parasitic pathogens ( Table 2) . While in some cases the results of these studies have been promising, antibody epitope-based peptide vaccines are no longer an area of active research for several reasons: (i) in many cases, peptides incompletely or inadequately mimic epitopes on folded proteins (Irving et al., 2010 ; see below); (ii) antibodies against a single epitope may be of limited utility, especially for highly variable pathogens (Van Regenmortel, 2012); and (iii) for pathogens for which protective immune responses are generated efficiently during natural infection, peptide vaccines offer few advantages over recombinant subunit and live vector vaccines, which have become easier to produce over time. More recently, peptide-displaying phage have been used in attempts to generate therapeutic antibody responses for chronic diseases, cancer, immunotherapy, and immunocontraception. Immunization with phage displaying Alzheimer's disease β-amyloid fibril peptides elicited anti-aggregating antibodies in mice and guinea pigs (Frenkel et al., 2000 (Frenkel et al., , 2003 Esposito et al., 2008; Tanaka et al., 2011) , possibly reduced amyloid plaque formation in mice (Frenkel et al., 2003; Solomon, 2005; Esposito et al., 2008) , and may have helped maintain cognitive abilities in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease (Lavie et al., 2004) ; however, it remains unclear how such antibodies are proposed to cross the blood-brain barrier. Yip et al. (2001) found that antibodies raised in mice against an ERBB2/HER2 peptide could inhibit breast-cancer cell proliferation. Phage displaying peptide ligands of an anti-IgE antibody elicited antibodies that bound purified IgE molecules (Rudolf et al., 1998) , which may be useful in allergy immunotherapy. Several strategies for phage-based contraceptive vaccines have been proposed for control of animal populations. For example, immunization with phage displaying follicle-stimulating hormone peptides on pVIII elicited antibodies that impaired the fertility of mice and ewes (Abdennebi et al., 1999) . Phage displaying or chemically Rubinchik and Chow (2000) conjugated to sperm antigen peptides or peptide mimics (Samoylova et al., 2012a,b) and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (Samoylov et al., 2012) are also in development. For the most part, peptides displayed on phage elicit antibodies in experimental animals ( Table 2) , although this depends on characteristics of the peptide and the method of its display: pIII fusions tend toward lower immunogenicity than pVIII fusions (Greenwood et al., 1991) possibly due to copy number differences (pIII: 1-5 copies vs. pVIII: estimated at several hundred copies; Malik et al., 1996) . In fact, the phage is at least as immunogenic as traditional carrier proteins such as bovine serum albumin (BSA) and keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH; Melzer et al., 2003; Su et al., 2007) , and has comparatively few endogenous B-cell epitopes to divert the antibody response from its intended target (Henry et al., 2011) . Excepting small epitopes that can be accurately represented by a contiguous short amino acid sequence, however, it has been extremely difficult to elicit antibody responses that cross-react with native protein epitopes using peptides. The overall picture is considerably bleaker than that painted by Table 2 , since in several studies either: (i) peptide ligands selected from phage-displayed libraries were classified by the authors as mimics of discontinuous epitopes if they bore no obvious sequence homology to the native protein, which is weak evidence of non-linearity, or (ii) the evidence for cross-reactivity of antibodies elicited by immunization with phage-displayed peptides with native protein was uncompelling. Irving et al. (2010) describe at least one reason for this lack of success: it seems that peptide antigens elicit a set of topologically restricted antibodies that are largely unable to recognize discontinuous or complex epitopes on larger biomolecules. While the peptide may mimic the chemistry of a given epitope on a folded protein (allowing it to crossreact with a targeted antibody), being a smaller molecule, it cannot mimic the topology of that antibody's full epitope. Despite this, the filamentous phage remains highly useful as a carrier for peptides with relatively simple secondary structures, which may be stablilized via anchoring to the coat proteins (Henry et al., 2011) . This may be especially true of peptides with poor inherent immunogenicity, which may be increased by high-valency display and phage-associated adjuvanticity (see Immunological Mechanisms of Vaccination with Filamentous Phage below). The filamentous phage has been used to a lesser extent as a carrier for T-cell peptide epitopes, primarily as fusion proteins with pVIII ( Table 3) . Early work, showing that immunization with phage elicited T-cell help (Kölsch et al., 1971; Willis et al., 1993) , was confirmed by several subsequent studies (De Berardinis et al., 1999; Ulivieri et al., 2008) . From the perspective of vaccination against infectious disease, De Berardinis et al. (2000) showed that a cytotoxic T-cell (CTL) epitope from HIV-1 reverse transcriptase could elicit antigen-specific CTLs in vitro and in vivo without addition of exogenous helper T-cell epitopes, presumably since these are already present in the phage coat proteins (Mascolo et al., 2007) . Similarly, efficient priming of CTLs was observed against phage-displayed T-cell epitopes from Hepatitis B virus (Wan et al., 2001) and Candida albicans (Yang et al., 2005a; Wang et al., 2006 Wang et al., , 2014d , which, together with other types of immune responses, protected mice against systemic candidiasis. Vaccination with a combination of phagedisplayed peptides elicited antigen-specific CTLs that proved effective in reducing porcine cysticercosis in a randomized controlled trial (Manoutcharian et al., 2004; Morales et al., 2008) . While the correlates of vaccine-induced immune protection for infectious diseases, where they are known, are almost exclusively serum or mucosal antibodies (Plotkin, 2010) , In certain vaccine applications, the filamentous phage has been used as a carrier for larger molecules that would be immunogenic even in isolation. Initially, the major advantages to phage display of such antigens were speed, ease of purification and low cost of production (Gram et al., 1993) . E. coli F17a-G adhesin (Van Gerven et al., 2008) , hepatitis B core antigen (Bahadir et al., 2011) , and hepatitis B surface antigen (Balcioglu et al., 2014) all elicited antibody responses when displayed on pIII, although none of these studies compared the immunogenicity of the phage-displayed proteins with that of the purified protein alone. Phage displaying Schistosoma mansoni glutathione S-transferase on pIII elicited an antibody response that was both higher in titer and of different isotypes compared to immunization with the protein alone (Rao et al., 2003) . Two studies of antiidiotypic vaccines have used the phage as a carrier for antibody fragments bearing immunogenic idiotypes. Immunization with phage displaying the 1E10 idiotype scFv (mimicking a Vibrio anguillarum surface epitope) elicited antibodies that protected flounder fish from Vibrio anguillarum challenge (Xia et al., 2005) . A chemically linked phage-BCL1 tumor-specific idiotype vaccine was weakly immunogenic in mice but extended survival time in a B-cell lymphoma model (Roehnisch et al., 2013) , and was welltolerated and immunogenic in patients with multiple myeloma (Roehnisch et al., 2014) . One study of DNA vaccination with an anti-laminarin scFv found that DNA encoding a pIII-scFv fusion protein elicited stronger humoral and cell-mediated immune responses than DNA encoding the scFv alone (Cuesta et al., 2006) , suggesting that under some circumstances, endogenous phage T-cell epitopes can enhance the immunogenicity of associated proteins. Taken together, the results of these studies show that as a particulate virus-like particle, the filamentous phage likely triggers different types of immune responses than recombinant protein antigens, and provide additional T-cell help to displayed or conjugated proteins. However, the low copy number of pIII-displayed proteins, as well as potentially unwanted phage-associated adjuvanticity, can make display of recombinant proteins by phage a suboptimal vaccine choice. Although our understanding of the immune response against the filamentous phage pales in comparison to classical model antigens such as ovalbumin, recent work has begun to shed light on the immune mechanisms activated in response to phage vaccination (Figure 1) . The phage particle is immunogenic without adjuvant in all species tested to date, including mice (Willis et al., 1993) , rats (Dente et al., 1994) , rabbits (de la Cruz et al., 1988) , guinea pigs (Frenkel et al., 2000; Kim et al., 2004) , fish (Coull et al., 1996; Xia et al., 2005) , non-human primates (Chen et al., 2001) , and humans (Roehnisch et al., 2014) . Various routes of immunization have been employed, including oral administration (Delmastro et al., 1997) as well as subcutaneous (Grabowska et al., 2000) , intraperitoneal (van Houten et al., 2006) , intramuscular (Samoylova et al., 2012a) , intravenous (Vaks and Benhar, 2011) , and intradermal injection (Roehnisch et al., 2013) ; no published study has directly compared the effect of administration route on filamentous phage immunogenicity. Antibodies are generated against only three major sites on the virion: (i) the surface-exposed N-terminal ∼12 residues of the pVIII monomer lattice (Terry et al., 1997; Kneissel et al., 1999) ; (ii) the N-terminal N1 and N2 domains of pIII (van Houten et al., 2010) ; and (iii) bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) embedded in the phage coat (Henry et al., 2011) . In mice, serum antibody titers against the phage typically reach 1:10 5 -1:10 6 after 2-3 immunizations, and are maintained for at least 1 year postimmunization (Frenkel et al., 2000) . Primary antibody responses against the phage appear to be composed of a mixture of IgM and IgG2b isotypes in C57BL/6 mice, while secondary antibody responses are composed primarily of IgG1 and IgG2b isotypes, with a lesser contribution of IgG2c and IgG3 isotypes (Hashiguchi et al., 2010) . Deletion of the surface-exposed N1 and N2 domains of pIII produces a truncated form of this protein that does not elicit antibodies, but also results in a non-infective phage particle with lower overall immunogenicity (van Houten et al., 2010) . FIGURE 1 | Types of immune responses elicited in response to immunization with filamentous bacteriophage. As a virus-like particle, the filamentous phage engages multiple arms of the immune system, beginning with cellular effectors of innate immunity (macrophages, neutrophils, and possibly natural killer cells), which are recruited to tumor sites by phage displaying tumor-targeting moieties. The phage likely activates T-cell independent antibody responses, either via phage-associated TLR ligands or cross-linking by the pVIII lattice. After processing by antigen-presenting cells, phage-derived peptides are presented on MHC class II and cross-presented on MHC class I, resulting in activation of short-lived CTLs and an array of helper T-cell types, which help prime memory CTL and high-affinity B-cell responses. Frontiers in Microbiology | www.frontiersin.org Although serum anti-phage antibody titers appear to be at least partially T-cell dependent (Kölsch et al., 1971; Willis et al., 1993; De Berardinis et al., 1999; van Houten et al., 2010) , many circulating pVIII-specific B cells in the blood are devoid of somatic mutation even after repeated biweekly immunizations, suggesting that under these conditions, the phage activates T-cell-independent B-cell responses in addition to highaffinity T-cell-dependent responses (Murira, 2014) . Filamentous phage particles can be processed by antigen-presenting cells and presented on MHC class II molecules (Gaubin et al., 2003; Ulivieri et al., 2008) and can activate T H 1, T H 2, and T H 17 helper T cells (Yang et al., 2005a; Wang et al., 2014d) . Anti-phage T H 2 responses were enhanced through display of CTLA-4 peptides fused to pIII (Kajihara et al., 2000) . Phage proteins can also be cross-presented on MHC class I molecules (Wan et al., 2005) and can prime two waves of CTL responses, consisting first of short-lived CTLs and later of long-lived memory CTLs that require CD4 + T-cell help (Del Pozzo et al., 2010) . The latter CTLs mediate a delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction (Fang et al., 2005; Del Pozzo et al., 2010) . The phage particle is self-adjuvanting through multiple mechanisms. Host cell wall-derived LPS enhances the virion's immunogenicity, and its removal by polymyxin B chromatography reduces antibody titers against phage coat proteins (Grabowska et al., 2000) . The phage's singlestranded DNA genome contains CpG motifs and may also have an adjuvant effect. The antibody response against the phage is entirely dependent on MyD88 signaling and is modulated by stimulation of several Toll-like receptors (Hashiguchi et al., 2010) , indicating that innate immunity plays an important but largely uncharacterized role in the activation of anti-phage adaptive immune responses. Biodistribution studies of the phage after intravenous injection show that it is cleared from the blood within hours through the reticuloendothelial system (Molenaar et al., 2002) , particularly of the liver and spleen, where it is retained for days (Zou et al., 2004) , potentially activating marginal-zone B-cell responses. Thus, the filamentous phage is not only a highly immunogenic carrier, but by virtue of activating a range of innate and adaptive immune responses, serves as an excellent model virus-like particle antigen. Long before the identification of filamentous phage, other types of bacteriophage were already being used for antibacterial therapy in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (reviewed in Sulakvelidze et al., 2001) . The filamentous phage, with its nonlytic life cycle, has less obvious clinical uses, despite the fact that the host specificity of Inovirus and Plectrovirus includes many pathogens of medical importance, including Salmonella, E. coli, Shigella, Pseudomonas, Clostridium, and Mycoplasma species. In an effort to enhance their bactericidal activity, genetically modified filamentous phage have been used as a "Trojan horse" to introduce various antibacterial agents into cells. M13 and Pf3 phage engineered to express either BglII restriction endonuclease (Hagens and Blasi, 2003; Hagens et al., 2004) , lambda phage S holin (Hagens and Blasi, 2003) or a lethal catabolite gene activator protein (Moradpour et al., 2009) effectively killed E. coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa cells, respectively, with no concomitant release of LPS (Hagens and Blasi, 2003; Hagens et al., 2004) . Unfortunately, the rapid emergence of resistant bacteria with modified F pili represents a major and possibly insurmountable obstacle to this approach. However, there are some indications that filamentous phage can exert useful but more subtle effects upon their bacterial hosts that may not result in the development of resistance to infection. Several studies have reported increased antibiotic sensitivity in bacterial populations simultaneously infected with either wild type filamentous phage (Hagens et al., 2006) or phage engineered to repress the cellular SOS response (Lu and Collins, 2009) . Filamentous phage f1 infection inhibited early stage, but not mature, biofilm formation in E. coli (May et al., 2011) . Thus, unmodified filamentous phage may be of future interest as elements of combination therapeutics against certain drug-resistant infections. More advanced therapeutic applications of the filamentous phage emerge when it is modified to express a targeting moiety specific for pathogenic cells and/or proteins for the treatment of infectious diseases, cancer and autoimmunity (Figure 2) . The first work in this area showed as proof-of-concept that phage encoding a GFP expression cassette and displaying a HER2specific scFv on all copies of pIII were internalized into breast tumor cells, resulting in GFP expression (Poul and Marks, 1999) . M13 or fd phage displaying either a targeting peptide or antibody fragment and tethered to chloramphenicol by a labile crosslinker were more potent inhibitors of Staphylococcus aureus growth than high-concentration free chloramphenicol (Yacoby et al., 2006; Vaks and Benhar, 2011) . M13 phage loaded with doxorubicin and displaying a targeting peptide on pIII specifically killed prostate cancer cells in vitro (Ghosh et al., 2012a) . Tumorspecific peptide:pVIII fusion proteins selected from "landscape" phage (Romanov et al., 2001; Abbineni et al., 2010; Fagbohun et al., 2012 Fagbohun et al., , 2013 Lang et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2014a) were able to target and deliver siRNA-, paclitaxel-, and doxorubicincontaining liposomes to tumor cells (Jayanna et al., 2010a; Wang et al., 2010a Wang et al., ,b,c, 2014b Bedi et al., 2011 Bedi et al., , 2013 Bedi et al., , 2014 ; they were non-toxic and increased tumor remission rates in mouse models (Jayanna et al., 2010b; Wang et al., 2014b,c) . Using the B16-OVA tumor model, Eriksson et al. (2007) showed that phage displaying peptides and/or Fabs specific for tumor antigens delayed tumor growth and improved survival, owing in large part to activation of tumor-associated macrophages and recruitment of neutrophils to the tumor site (Eriksson et al., 2009) . Phage displaying an scFv against β-amyloid fibrils showed promise as a diagnostic (Frenkel and Solomon, 2002) and therapeutic (Solomon, 2008) reagent for Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease due to the unanticipated ability of the phage to penetrate into brain tissue (Ksendzovsky et al., 2012) . Similarly, phage displaying an immunodominant peptide epitope derived from myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein depleted pathogenic demyelinating antibodies in brain tissue in the murine experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis model of multiple sclerosis (Rakover et al., 2010) . The advantages of the filamentous phage in this context over traditional antibody-drug or protein-peptide conjugates are (i) its ability to carry very high amounts of drug or peptide, and (ii) its ability to access anatomical compartments that cannot generally be reached by systemic administration of a protein. Unlike most therapeutic biologics, the filamentous phage's production in bacteria complicates its use in humans in several ways. First and foremost, crude preparations of filamentous phage typically contain very high levels of contaminating LPS, in the range of ∼10 2 -10 4 endotoxin units (EU)/mL (Boratynski et al., 2004; Branston et al., 2015) , which have the potential to cause severe adverse reactions. LPS is not completely removed by polyethylene glycol precipitation or cesium chloride density gradient centrifugation (Smith and Gingrich, 2005; Branston et al., 2015) , but its levels can be reduced dramatically using additional purification steps such as size exclusion chromatography (Boratynski et al., 2004; Zakharova et al., 2005) , polymyxin B chromatography (Grabowska et al., 2000) , and treatment with detergents such as Triton X-100 or Triton X-114 (Roehnisch et al., 2014; Branston et al., 2015) . These strategies routinely achieve endotoxin levels of <1 EU/mL as measured by the limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL) assay, well below the FDA limit for parenteral administration of 5 EU/kg body weight/dose, although concerns remain regarding the presence of residual virion-associated LPS which may be undetectable. A second and perhaps unavoidable consequence of the filamentous phage's bacterial production is inherent heterogeneity of particle size and the spectrum of host cellderived virion-associated and soluble contaminants, which may be cause for safety concerns and restrict its use to high-risk groups. Many types of bacteriophage and engineered phage variants, including filamentous phage, have been proposed for prophylactic use ex vivo in food safety, either in the production pipeline (reviewed in Dalmasso et al., 2014) or for detection of foodborne pathogens post-production (reviewed in Schmelcher and Loessner, 2014) . Filamentous phage displaying a tetracysteine tag on pIII were used to detect E. coli cells through staining with biarsenical dye . M13 phage functionalized with metallic silver were highly bactericidal against E. coli and Staphylococcus epidermidis . Biosensors based on surface plasmon resonance (Nanduri et al., 2007) , piezoelectric transducers (Olsen et al., 2006) , linear dichroism (Pacheco-Gomez et al., 2012) , and magnetoelastic sensor technology (Lakshmanan et al., 2007; Huang et al., 2009) were devised using filamentous phage displaying scFv or conjugated to whole IgG against E. coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella typhimurium, and Bacillus anthracis with limits of detection on the order of 10 2 -10 6 bacterial cells/mL. Proof of concept has been demonstrated for use of such phage-based biosensors to detect bacterial contamination of live produce (Li et al., 2010b) and eggs (Chai et al., 2012) . The filamentous phage particle is enclosed by a rod-like protein capsid, ∼1000 nm long and 5 nm wide, made up almost entirely of overlapping pVIII monomers, each of which lies ∼27 angstroms from its nearest neighbor and exposes two amine groups as well as at least three carboxyl groups (Henry et al., 2011) . The regularity of the phage pVIII lattice and its diversity of chemically addressable groups make it an ideal scaffold for bioconjugation (Figure 3) . The most commonly used approach is functionalization of amine groups with NHS esters (van Houten et al., 2006 (van Houten et al., , 2010 Yacoby et al., 2006) , although this can result in unwanted acylation of pIII and any displayed biomolecules. Carboxyl groups and tyrosine residues can also be functionalized using carbodiimide coupling and diazonium coupling, respectively (Li et al., 2010a) . Carrico et al. (2012) developed methods to specifically label pVIII N-termini without modification of exposed lysine residues through a two-step transamination-oxime formation reaction. Specific modification of phage coat proteins is even more easily accomplished using genetically modified phage displaying peptides (Ng et al., 2012) or enzymes (Chen et al., 2007; Hess et al., 2012) , but this can be cumbersome and is less general in application. For more than a decade, interest in the filamentous phage as a building block for nanomaterials has been growing because of its unique physicochemical properties, with emerging applications in magnetics, optics, and electronics. It has long been known that above a certain concentration threshold, phage can form ordered crystalline suspensions (Welsh et al., 1996) . Lee et al. (2002) engineered M13 phage to display a ZnS-binding peptide on pIII and showed that, in the presence of ZnS nanoparticles, they selfassemble into highly ordered film biomaterials that can be aligned using magnetic fields. Taking advantage of the ability to display substrate-specific peptides at known locations on the phage filament Hess et al., 2012) , this pioneering FIGURE 3 | Chemically addressable groups of the filamentous bacteriophage major coat protein lattice. The filamentous phage virion is made up of ∼2,500-4,000 overlapping copies of the 50-residue major coat protein, pVIII, arranged in a shingle-type lattice. Each monomer has an array of chemically addressable groups available for bioorthogonal conjugation, including two primary amine groups (shown in red), three carboxyl groups (show in blue) and two hydroxyl groups (show in green). The 12 N-terminal residues generally exposed to the immune system for antibody binding are in bold underline. Figure adapted from structural data of Marvin, 1990 , freely available in PDB and SCOPe databases. work became the basis for construction of two-and threedimensional nanomaterials with more advanced architectures, including semiconducting nanowires (Mao et al., 2003 (Mao et al., , 2004 , nanoparticles , and nanocomposites (Oh et al., 2012; Chen et al., 2014) . Using hybrid M13 phage displaying Co 3 O 4 -and gold-binding peptides on pVIII as a scaffold to assemble nanowires on polyelectrolyte multilayers, Nam et al. (2006) produced a thin, flexible lithium ion battery, which could be stamped onto platinum microband current collectors (Nam et al., 2008) . The electrochemical properties of such batteries were further improved through pIII-display of single-walled carbon nanotube-binding peptides (Lee et al., 2009) , offering an approach for sustainable production of nanostructured electrodes from poorly conductive starting materials. Phagebased nanomaterials have found applications in cancer imaging (Ghosh et al., 2012b; Yi et al., 2012) , photocatalytic water splitting (Nam et al., 2010a; Neltner et al., 2010) , light harvesting (Nam et al., 2010b; Chen et al., 2013) , photoresponsive technologies (Murugesan et al., 2013) , neural electrodes (Kim et al., 2014) , and piezoelectric energy generation (Murugesan et al., 2013) . Thus, the unique physicochemical properties of the phage, in combination with modular display of peptides and proteins with known binding specificity, have spawned wholly novel materials with diverse applications. It is worth noting that the unusual biophysical properties of the filamentous phage can also be exploited in the study of structures of other macromolecules. Magnetic alignment of high-concentration filamentous phage in solution can partially order DNA, RNA, proteins, and other biomolecules for measurement of dipolar coupling interactions (Hansen et al., 1998 (Hansen et al., , 2000 Dahlke Ojennus et al., 1999) in NMR spectroscopy. Because of their large population sizes, short generation times, small genome sizes and ease of manipulation, various filamentous and non-filamentous bacteriophages have been used as models of experimental evolution (reviewed in Husimi, 1989; Wichman and Brown, 2010; Kawecki et al., 2012; Hall et al., 2013) . The filamentous phage has additional practical uses in protein engineering and directed protein evolution, due to its unique tolerance of genetic modifications that allow biomolecules to be displayed on the virion surface. First and foremost among these applications is in vitro affinity maturation of antibody fragments displayed on pIII. Libraries of variant Fabs and single chain antibodies can be generated via random or sitedirected mutagenesis and selected on the basis of improved or altered binding, roughly mimicking the somatic evolution strategy of the immune system (Marks et al., 1992; Bradbury et al., 2011) . However, other in vitro display systems, such as yeast display, have important advantages over the filamentous phage for affinity maturation (although each display technology has complementary strengths; Koide and Koide, 2012) , and regardless of the display method, selection of "improved" variants can be slow and cumbersome. Iterative methods have been developed to combine computationally designed mutations (Lippow et al., 2007) and circumvent the screening of combinatorial libraries, but these have had limited success to date. Recently, Esvelt et al. (2011) developed a novel strategy for directed evolution of filamentous phage-displayed proteins, called phage-assisted continuous evolution (PACE), which allows multiple rounds of evolution per day with little experimental intervention. The authors engineered M13 phage to encode an exogenous protein (the subject for directed evolution), whose functional activity triggers gene III expression from an accessory plasmid; variants of the exogenous protein arise by random mutagenesis during phage replication, the rate of which can be increased by inducible expression of error-prone DNA polymerases. By supplying limiting amounts of receptive E. coli cells to the engineered phage variants, Esvelt et al. (2011) elegantly linked phage infectivity and production of offspring with the presence of a desired protein phenotype. Carlson et al. (2014) later showed that PACE selection stringency could be modulated by providing small amounts of pIII independently of protein phenotype, and undesirable protein functions negatively selected by linking them to expression of a truncated pIII variant that impairs infectivity in a dominant negative fashion. PACE is currently limited to protein functions that can be linked in some way to the expression of a gene III reporter, such as protein-protein interaction, recombination, DNA or RNA binding, and enzymatic catalysis (Meyer and Ellington, 2011) . This approach represents a promising avenue for both basic research in molecular evolution (Dickinson et al., 2013) and synthetic biology, including antibody engineering. Filamentous bacteriophage have been recovered from diverse environmental sources, including soil (Murugaiyan et al., 2011) , coastal fresh water (Xue et al., 2012) , alpine lakes (Hofer and Sommaruga, 2001) and deep sea bacteria (Jian et al., 2012) , but not, perhaps surprisingly, the human gut (Kim et al., 2011) . The environmental "phageome" in soil and water represent the largest source of replicating DNA on the planet, and is estimated to contain upward of 10 30 viral particles (Ashelford et al., 2003; Chibani-Chennoufi et al., 2004; Suttle, 2005) . The few studies attempting to investigate filamentous phage environmental ecology using classical environmental microbiology techniques (typically direct observation by electron microscopy) found that filamentous phage made up anywhere from 0 to 100% of all viral particles (Demuth et al., 1993; Pina et al., 1998; Hofer and Sommaruga, 2001) . There was some evidence of seasonal fluctuation of filamentous phage populations in tandem with the relative abundance of free-living heterotrophic bacteria (Hofer and Sommaruga, 2001) . Environmental metagenomics efforts are just beginning to unravel the composition of viral ecosystems. The existing data suggest that filamentous phage comprise minor constituents of viral communities in freshwater (Roux et al., 2012) and reclaimed and potable water (Rosario et al., 2009) but have much higher frequencies in wastewater and sewage (Cantalupo et al., 2011; Alhamlan et al., 2013) , with the caveat that biases inherent to the methodologies for ascertaining these data (purification of viral particles, sequencing biases) have not been not well validated. There are no data describing the population dynamics of filamentous phage and their host species in the natural environment. At the individual virus-bacterium level, it is clear that filamentous phage can modulate host phenotype, including the virulence of important human and crop pathogens. This can occur either through direct effects of phage replication on cell growth and physiology, or, more typically, by horizontal transfer of genetic material contained within episomes and/or chromosomally integrated prophage. Temperate filamentous phage may also play a role in genome evolution (reviewed in Canchaya et al., 2003) . Perhaps the best-studied example of virulence modulation by filamentous phage is that of Vibrio cholerae, whose full virulence requires lysogenic conversion by the cholera toxin-encoding CTXφ phage (Waldor and Mekalanos, 1996) . Integration of CTXφ phage occurs at specific sites in the genome; these sequences are introduced through the combined action of another filamentous phage, fs2φ, and a satellite filamentous phage, TLC-Knφ1 (Hassan et al., 2010) . Thus, filamentous phage species interact and coevolve with each other in addition to their hosts. Infection by filamentous phage has been implicated in the virulence of Yersinia pestis (Derbise et al., 2007) , Neisseria meningitidis (Bille et al., 2005 (Bille et al., , 2008 , Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Iida et al., 2001) , E. coli 018:K1:H7 (Gonzalez et al., 2002) , Xanthomonas campestris (Kamiunten and Wakimoto, 1982) , and P. aeruginosa (Webb et al., 2004) , although in most of these cases, the specific mechanisms modulating virulence are unclear. Phage infection can both enhance or repress virulence depending on the characteristics of the phage, the host bacterium, and the environmental milieu, as is the case for the bacterial wilt pathogen Ralstonia solanacearum (Yamada, 2013) . Since infection results in downregulation of the pili used for viral entry, filamentous phage treatment has been proposed as a hypothetical means of inhibiting bacterial conjugation and horizontal gene transfer, so as to prevent the spread of antibiotic resistance genes (Lin et al., 2011) . Finally, the filamentous phage may also play a future role in the preservation of biodiversity of other organisms in at-risk ecosystems. Engineered phage have been proposed for use in bioremediation, either displaying antibody fragments of desired specificity for filtration of toxins and environmental contaminants (Petrenko and Makowski, 1993) , or as biodegradable polymers displaying peptides selected for their ability to aggregate pollutants, such as oil sands tailings (Curtis et al., 2011 (Curtis et al., , 2013 . Engineered phage displaying peptides that specifically bind inorganic materials have also been proposed for use in more advanced and less intrusive mineral separation technologies (Curtis et al., 2009 ). The filamentous phage represents a highly versatile organism whose uses extend far beyond traditional phage display and affinity selection of antibodies and polypeptides of desired specificity. Its high immunogenicity and ability to display a variety of surface antigens make the phage an excellent particulate vaccine carrier, although its bacterial production and preparation heterogeneity likely limits its applications in human vaccines at present, despite being apparently safe and well-tolerated in animals and people. Unanticipated characteristics of the phage particle, such as crossing of the blood-brain barrier and formation of highly ordered liquid crystalline phases, have opened up entirely new avenues of research in therapeutics for chronic disease and the design of nanomaterials. Our comparatively detailed understanding of the interactions of model filamentous phage with their bacterial hosts has allowed researchers to harness the phage life cycle to direct protein evolution in the lab. Hopefully, deeper knowledge of phage-host interactions at an ecological level may produce novel strategies to control bacterial pathogenesis. While novel applications of the filamentous phage continue to be developed, the phage is likely to retain its position as a workhorse for therapeutic antibody discovery for many years to come, even with the advent of competing technologies. KH and JS conceived and wrote the manuscript. MA-G read the manuscript and commented on the text.

Despite shortcomings, what has the filamentous phage has been useful for?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

How many of them are pathogenic for humans?

Evidence for the Convergence Model: The Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Viet Nam https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4580613/ SHA: ee5b43d20a640664510cb7a540caaae4a8e19933 Authors: Saksena, Sumeet; Fox, Jefferson; Epprecht, Michael; Tran, Chinh C.; Nong, Duong H.; Spencer, James H.; Nguyen, Lam; Finucane, Melissa L.; Tran, Vien D.; Wilcox, Bruce A. Date: 2015-09-23 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138138 License: cc-by Abstract: Building on a series of ground breaking reviews that first defined and drew attention to emerging infectious diseases (EID), the ‘convergence model’ was proposed to explain the multifactorial causality of disease emergence. The model broadly hypothesizes disease emergence is driven by the co-incidence of genetic, physical environmental, ecological, and social factors. We developed and tested a model of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 based on suspected convergence factors that are mainly associated with land-use change. Building on previous geospatial statistical studies that identified natural and human risk factors associated with urbanization, we added new factors to test whether causal mechanisms and pathogenic landscapes could be more specifically identified. Our findings suggest that urbanization spatially combines risk factors to produce particular types of peri-urban landscapes with significantly higher HPAI H5N1 emergence risk. The work highlights that peri-urban areas of Viet Nam have higher levels of chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and fraction of land under rice or aquaculture than rural and urban areas. We also found that land-use diversity, a surrogate measure for potential mixing of host populations and other factors that likely influence viral transmission, significantly improves the model’s predictability. Similarly, landscapes where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production overlap were found at greater risk. These results support the convergence hypothesis in general and demonstrate the potential to improve EID prevention and control by combing geospatial monitoring of these factors along with pathogen surveillance programs. Text: Two decades after the Institute of Medicine's seminal report [1] recognized novel and reemerging diseases as a new category of microbial threats, the perpetual and unexpected nature of the emergence of infectious diseases remains a challenge in spite of significant clinical and biomedical research advances [2] . Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) (subtype H5N1) is the most significant newly emerging pandemic disease since HIV/AIDS. Its eruption in Southeast Asia in 2003-4 and subsequent spread globally to more than 60 countries fits the complex systems definition of "surprise" [3] . In this same year that IOM had published its final report on microbial threats which highlighted H5N1's successful containment in Hong Kong in 1997 [4] , massive outbreaks occurred in Southeast Asia where it remains endemic, along with Egypt's Nile Delta. Since 2003, HPAI H5N1 has killed millions of poultry in countries throughout Asia, Europe, and Africa, and 402 humans have died from it in sixteen countries according to WHO data as of January 2015. The threat of a pandemic resulting in millions of human cases worldwide remains a possibility [5] . Lederberg et al. [1] first pointed to the multiplicity of factors driving disease emergence, which later were elaborated and described in terms of 'the convergence model' [6] . The model proposes emergence events are precipitated by the intensifying of biological, environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic drivers. Microbial "adaptation and change," along with "changing ecosystems" and "economic development and land use" form major themes. Joshua Lederberg, the major intellectual force behind the studies summed-up saying "Ecological instabilities arise from the ways we alter the physical and biological environment, the microbial and animal tenants (humans included) of these environments, and our interactions (including hygienic and therapeutic interventions) with the parasites" [6] . Combining such disparate factors and associated concepts from biomedicine, ecology, and social sciences in a single framework remains elusive. One approach suggested has been to employ social-ecological systems theory that attempts to capture the behavior of so-called 'coupled natural-human systems', including the inevitable unexpected appearance of new diseases, themselves one of the "emerging properties" of complex adaptive systems (CAS) [7, 8] . The convergence model can be so adapted by incorporating the dynamics of urban, agricultural, and natural ecosystem transformations proposed with this framework. These associated multifaceted interactions including feedbacks that affect ecological communities, hosts and pathogen populations, are the proximate drivers of disease emergence. The initial HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam represent an ideal opportunity to adapt and test a CAS-convergence model. Emergence risk should be highest in the most rapidly transforming urban areas, peri-urban zones where mixes of urban-rural, modern-traditional land uses and poultry husbandry coincide most intensely. Specifically we hypothesized a positive association between the presence of HPAI outbreaks in poultry at the commune level and: 1) peri-urban areas, as defined by Saksena et al. [9] , 2) land-use diversity, and 3) co-location of intensive and extensive systems of poultry. We used the presence or absence at the commune level of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry as the dependent variable. Vietnam experienced its first HPAI H5N1 outbreak in late 2003, since then, there have been five waves and sporadic outbreaks recorded over the years [10, 11] . We chose to study the first wave (Wave 1) that ended in February 2004 and the second wave (Wave 2) that occurred between December 2004 and April 2005. We used data from the Viet Nam 2006 Agricultural Census to develop an urbanicity classification that used data collected at a single point in time (2006) but across space (10,820 communes) to infer processes of change (urbanization, land-use diversification, and poultry intensification) [9] . The 58 provinces in Vietnam (not counting the 5 urban provinces that are governed centrally) are divided into rural districts, provincial towns, and provincial cities. Rural districts are further divided into communes (rural areas) and towns, and provincial towns and cities are divided into wards (urban subdistricts) and communes. A commune in Viet Nam is thus the third level administrative subdivision, consisting of villages/hamlets. For the purpose of simplicity we will henceforth use the term "commune" to refer to the smallest administrative unit whether it is a commune, town, or ward. We included risk factors documented in previous work. We also aimed to understand the differences, if any, in risk dynamics at different scales; comparing risks at the national scale to those at two sub-national agro-ecological zones. For this purpose we chose to study the Red River and Mekong River deltas, well known hot spots of the disease. Hence we conducted two sets of analyses (waves 1 and 2) for three places (nation, Red River Delta, and Mekong Delta) producing a total of 6 wave-place analyses. Data on outbreaks were obtained from the publicly available database of Viet Nam's Department of Animal Health. Given the highly complex dynamics of the epidemics and in keeping with recent methodological trends, we used multiple modeling approaches-parametric and non-parametric-with a focus on spatial analysis. We used both 'place' oriented models that can take into account variations in factors such as policies and administration as well as 'space' oriented models that recognize the importance of physical proximity in natural phenomenon [12] . Very few empirical studies have attempted to determine whether urbanization is related to EID outbreaks or whether urbanization is associated primarily with other factors related to EID outbreaks. One immediate problem researchers face is defining what is rural, urban, and transitional (i.e., peri-urban). Some studies have used official administrative definitions of urban and rural areas, but this approach is limited in its bluntness [13] . Other studies prioritized human population density as a satisfactory surrogate [11, [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] , but this approach ignores the important fact that density is not a risk factor if it is accompanied by sufficient infrastructure to handle the population. Spencer [21] examined urbanization as a non-linear characteristic, using household-level variables such as water and sanitation services. He found evidence that increased diversity in water supply sources and sanitation infrastructure were associated with higher incidences of HPAI. These studies employed a limited definition of urbanization that lacked a well-defined characterization of peri-urbanization. Still other studies have mapped the relative urban nature of a place, a broad concept that is often referred to as 'urbanicity' [22] [23] [24] [25] . While these studies show differences in the rural/ urban nature of communities across space and time, they have been limited to small-to medium-scale observational studies; and they have failed to distinguish between different levels of "ruralness". Perhaps the best known model of peri-urbanization is McGee's concept of desakota (Indonesian for "village-town") [26] . McGee identified six characteristics of desakota regions: 1) a large population of smallholder cultivators; 2) an increase in non-agricultural activities; 3) extreme fluidity and mobility of population; 4) a mixture of land uses, agriculture, cottage industries, suburban development; 5) increased participation of the female labor force; and 6) "grey-zones", where informal and illegal activities group [26] . Saksena et al. [9] built on McGee's desakota concepts and data from the 2006 Viet Nam Agricultural Census to establish an urbanicity classification. That study identified and mapped the 10,820 communes, the smallest administrative unit for which data are collected, as being rural, peri-urban, urban, or urban core. This project used the Saksena classification to assess associations between urbanicity classes, other risks factors, and HPAI outbreaks. Researchers have estimated that almost 75% of zoonotic diseases are associated with landcover and land-use changes (LCLUC) [27, 28] . LCLUC such as peri-urbanization and agricultural diversification frequently result in more diverse and fragmented landscapes (number of land covers or land uses per unit of land). The importance of landscape pattern, including diversity and associated processes, which equate to host species' habitat size and distribution, and thus pathogen transmission dynamics is axiomatic though the specific mechanisms depend on the disease [29, 30] . Landscape fragmentation produces ecotones, defined as abrupt edges or transitions zones between different ecological systems, thought to facilitate disease emergence by increasing the intensity and frequency of contact between host species [31] Furthermore, fragmentation of natural habitat tends to interrupt and degrade natural processes, including interspecies interactions that regulate densities of otherwise opportunistic species that may serve as competent hosts [32] , although it is not clear if reduced species diversity necessarily increases pathogen transmission [33] . Rarely has research connected land-use diversification to final health endpoints in humans or livestock; this study attempts to link land-use diversity with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Human populations in the rapidly urbanizing cities of the developing world require access to vegetables, fruits, meat, etc. typically produced elsewhere. As theorized by von Thünen in 1826 [34] , much of this demand is met by farms near cities [35] , many in areas undergoing processes of peri-urbanization [26] . Due to the globalization of poultry trade, large-scale chicken farms raising thousands of birds have expanded rapidly in Southeast Asia and compete with existing small backyard farmers [36] . Large, enterprise-scale (15,000-100,000 birds) operations are still rare in Viet Nam (only 33 communes have such a facility). On the other hand, domestic and multinational companies frequently contract farmers to raise between 2,000 and 15,000 birds. Recent studies have examined the relative role of extensive (backyard) systems and intensive systems [15, [17] [18] [19] 37] . In much of Asia there is often a mix of commercial and backyard farming at any one location [36] . Experts have suggested that from a biosecurity perspective the co-location of extensive and intensive systems is a potential risk factor [38] . Intensive systems allow for virus evolution (e.g. Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza to HPAI) and transformation, while extensive systems allow for environmental persistence and circulation [39] . Previous studies of chicken populations as a risk factor have distinguished between production systems-native chickens, backyard chickens; flock density; commercial chickens, broilers and layers density, etc. [15, [17] [18] [19] 37] . In isolation, however, none of these number and/or density based poultry metrics adequately measures the extent of co-location of intensive and extensive systems in any given place. Intensive and extensive systems in Viet Nam have their own fairly well defined flock sizes. A diversity index of the relative number of intensive and extensive systems of poultry-raising can better estimate the effect of such co-location; this study attempts to link a livestock diversity index with the presence or absence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks at the commune level. This study investigated for the 10,820 communes of Viet Nam a wide suite of socio-economic, agricultural, climatic and ecological variables relevant to poultry management and the transmission and persistence of the HPAI virus. Many of these variables were identified based on earlier studies of HPAI (as reviewed in Gilbert and Pfeiffer [40] ). Three novel variables were included based on hypotheses generated by this project. All variables were measured or aggregated to the commune level. The novel variables were: • Degree of urbanization: We used the urbanicity classification developed by Saksena et al. [9] to define the urban character of each commune. The classification framework is based on four characteristics: 1) percentage of households whose main income is from agriculture, aquaculture and forestry, 2) percentage of households with modern forms of toilets, 3) percentage of land under agriculture, aquaculture and forestry and 4) the Normalized Differentiated Vegetation Index (NDVI). The three-way classification enabled testing for non-linear and non-monotonous responses. • Land-use diversity: We measured land-use diversity using the Gini-Simpson Diversity Index [41] . The Gini-Simpson Diversity Index is given by 1-λ, where λ equals the probability that two entities taken at random from the dataset of interest represent the same type. In situations with only one class (complete homogeneity) the Gini-Simpson index would have a value equal to zero. Such diversity indices have been used to measure land-use diversity [42] . We used the following five land-use classes: annual crops, perennial crops, forests, aquaculture and built-up land (including miscellaneous uses) for which data were collected in the 2006 Agricultural Census. The area under the last class was calculated as the difference between the total area and the sum of the first four classes. The following variables are listed according to their role in disease introduction, transmission and persistence, though some of these factors may have multiple roles. • Human population related transmission. Human population density [11, 14-16, 18, 19, 44, 45] . • Poultry trade and market. Towns and cities were assumed to be active trading places [10, 18, 37, 44, 46] . So, the distance to the nearest town/city was used as indicator of poultry trade. Trade is facilitated by access to transportation infrastructure [37, 47, 48] . So, the distance to the nearest a) national highway and b) provincial highway was used as indicator of transportation infrastructure. • Disease introduction and amplification. The densities of chicken were calculated based on commune area [15, 19, 37, 49] . • Intermediate hosts. Duck and geese densities were calculated using total commune area [11, 19, 49] . As previous studies have shown a link between scavenging in rice fields by ducks and outbreaks, we also calculated duck density using only the area under rice. • Agro-ecological and environmental risk factors. Previous studies have shown that the extent of rice cultivation is a risk factor, mainly due its association with free ranging ducks acting as scavengers [10] . We used percentage of land under rice cultivation as a measure of extent. Rice cropping intensity is also a known risk factor [11, 17, 37] . We used the mean number of rice crops per year as a measure of intensity. The extent of aquaculture is a known risk factor [10] , possibly because water bodies offer routes for transmission and persistence of the virus. The percentage of land under aquaculture was used as a metric. Proximity to water bodies increases the risk of outbreaks [47, [50] [51] [52] , possibly by increasing the chance of contact between wild water birds and domestic poultry. We measured the distance between the commune and the nearest: a) lake and b) river. Climatic variables-annual mean temperature and annual precipitation-have been associated with significant changes in risk [48, 53] . Elevation, which is associated with types of land cover and agriculture, has been shown to be a significant risk factor in Vietnam [10] . Compound Topographical Index (CTI, also known as Topographical Wetness Index) is a measure of the tendency for water to pool. Studies in Thailand and elsewhere [54] have shown that the extent of surface water is a strong risk factor, possibly due to the role of water in long-range transmission and persistence of the virus. In the absence of reliable and inexpensive data on the extent of surface water we used CTI as a proxy. CTI has been used in Ecological Niche Models (ENM) of HPAI H5N1 [55, 56] . However, given the nature of ENM studies, the effect of CTI as a risk factor has been unknown so far. CTI has been used as a risk factor in the study of other infectious and non-infectious diseases [57] . Some studies have shown that at local scales, the slope of the terrain (a component of CTI) was significantly correlated with reservoir species dominance [58] . CTI is a function of both the slope and the upstream contributing area per unit width orthogonal to the flow direction. CTI is computed as follows: CTI = ln (A s / (tan (β)) where; A s = Area Value calculated as ((flow accumulation + 1) Ã (pixel area in m 2 )) and β is the slope expressed in radians [59] . Though previous studies have indicated that Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a risk factor [10, 20, 55, 60, 61], we did not include it explicitly in our models, as the urban classification index we used included NDVI [9] . We obtained commune level data on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks from the publicly available database of the Department of Animal Health [10] . Viet Nam experienced its first major epidemic waves between December 2003 and February 2006 [10] . We chose to study the first wave (Wave 1) that ended in February 2004 and the second wave (Wave 2) that occurred between December 2004 and April 2005. In Wave 1, 21% of the communes and in Wave 2, 6% of the communes experienced outbreaks. We used data from the 1999 Population Census of Viet Nam to estimate human population per commune. We relied on data from two Agriculture Censuses of Viet Nam. This survey is conducted every five years covering all rural households and those peri-urban households that own farms. Thus about three-fourths of all of the country's households are included. The contents of the survey include number of households in major production activities, population, labor classified by sex, age, qualification, employment and major income source; agriculture, forestry and aquaculture land used by households classified by source, type, cultivation area for by crop type; and farming equipment by purpose. Commune level surveys include information on rural infrastructure, namely electricity, transportation, medical stations, schools; fresh water source, communication, markets, etc. Detailed economic data are collected for large farms. We used the 2006 Agriculture Census for most variables because the first three epidemic waves occurred between the Agricultural Censuses of 2001 and 2006 but were closer in time to the 2006 census [10] . However, for data on poultry numbers we used the 2001 Agriculture Census data set because between 1991 and 2003 the poultry population grew at an average rate of 7% annually. However, in 2004, after the first wave of the H5N1 epidemic, the poultry population fell 15%. Only by mid-2008 did the poultry population return close to pre-epidemic levels. Thus, we considered the poultry population data from the 2001 census to be more representative. We aggregated census household data to the commune level. A three-way classification of the rural-to-urban transition was based on a related study [9] . Raster data on annual mean temperature and precipitation were obtained from the World-Clim database and converted to commune level data. The bioclimatic variables were compiled from the monthly temperature and precipitation values and interpolated to surfaces at 90m spatial resolution [62] . This public database provides data on the average climatic conditions of the period 1950-2000. Elevation was generated from SRTM 90 meter Digital Elevation Models (DEM) acquired from the Consortium for Spatial Information (CGIAR-CSI). Compound Topographical Index (CTI) data were generated using the Geomorphometry and Gradient Metrics Toolbox for Arc-GIS 10.1. Prior to risk factor analysis we cleaned the data by identifying illogical values for all variables and then either assigning a missing value to them or adjusting the values. Illogical values occurred mainly (less than 1% of the cases) for land-related variables such as percentage of commune land under a particular type of land use. Next we tested each variable for normality using the BestFit software (Palisade Corporation). Most of the variables were found to follow a log-normal distribution and a log-transform was used on them. We then examined the bi-variate correlations between all the risk factors (or their log-transform, as the case may be). Correlations were analyzed separately for each place. Certain risk factors were then eliminated from consideration when |r| ! 0.5 (r is the Pearson correlation coefficient). When two risk factors were highly correlated, we chose to include the one which had not been adequately studied explicitly in previously published risk models. Notably, we excluded a) elevation (correlated with human population density, chicken density, duck density, percentage land under paddy, annual temperature and compound topographical index), b) human population density (correlated with elevation and CTI), c) chicken density (only at national level, correlated with CTI), d) duck and goose density (correlated with elevation, chicken density, percentage land under paddy, land use diversity index and CTI), e) annual temperature (correlated with elevation and CTI) and f) cropping intensity (correlated with percentage land under paddy). Considering the importance of spatial autocorrelation in such epidemics, we used two modeling approaches: 1) multi-level Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and 2) Boosted Regression trees (BRT) [63, 64] with an autoregressive term [65] . GLMM is a 'place' oriented approach that is well suited to analyzing the effect of administrative groupings, while BRT is a 'space' oriented approach that accounts for the effects of physical proximity. We began by deriving an autoregressive term by averaging the presence/absence among a set of neighbors defined by the limit of autocorrelation, weighted by the inverse of the Euclidean distance [65] . The limit of the autocorrelation of the response variable was obtained from the range of the spatial correlogram ρ (h) [66] . To determine which predictor variables to include in the two models, we conducted logistic regression modeling separately for each of them one by one but included the autoregressive term each time. We finally included only those variables whose coefficient had a significance value p 0.2 (in at least one wave-place combination) and we noted the sign of the coefficient. This choice of p value for screening risk factors is common in similar studies [15, 18, 45, 67] . We used a two-level GLMM (communes nested under districts) to take account of random effects for an area influenced by its neighbors, and thus, we studied the effect of spatial autocorrelation. We used robust standard errors for tests of fixed effects. Boosted regression trees, also known as stochastic gradient boosting, was performed to predict the probability of HPAI H5N1 occurrence and determine the relative influence of each risk factor to the HPAI H5N1 occurrence. This method was developed recently and applied widely for distribution prediction in various fields of ecology [63, 64] . It is widely used for species distribution modeling where only the sites of occurrence of the species are known [68] . The method has been applied in numerous studies for predicting the distribution of HPAI H5N1 disease [16, 51, [69] [70] [71] . BRT utilizes regression trees and boosting algorithms to fit several models and combines them for improving prediction by performing iterative loop throughout the model [63, 64] . The advantage of BRT is that it applies stochastic processes that include probabilistic components to improve predictive performance. We used regression trees to select relevant predictor variables and boosting to improve accuracy in a single tree. The sequential process allows trees to be fitted iteratively through a forward stage-wise procedure in the boosting model. Two important parameters specified in the BRT model are learning rate (lr) and tree complexity (tc) to determine the number of trees for optimal prediction [63, 64] . In our model we used 10 sets of training and test points for cross-validation, a tree complexity of 5, a learning rate of 0.01, and a bag fraction of 0.5. Other advantages of BRT include its insensitivity to co-linearity and non-linear responses. However, for the sake of consistency with the GLMM method, we chose to eliminate predictors that were highly correlated with other predictors and to make log-transforms where needed. In the GLMM models we used p 0.05 to identify significant risk factors. The predictive performances of the models were assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve. AUC is a measure of the overall fit of the model that varies from 0.5 (chance event) to 1.0 (perfect fit) [72] . A comparison of AUC with other accuracy metrics concluded that it is the most robust measure of model performance because it remained constant over a wide range of prevalence rates [73] . We used the corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) to compare each GLMM model with and without its respective suite of fixed predictors. We used SPSS version 21 (IBM Corp., New York, 2012) for GLMM and R version 3.1.0 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2014) for the BRT. For calculating the spatial correlogram we used the spdep package of R. The fourteen predictor variables we modeled (see tables) were all found to be significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks (p 0.2) in at least one wave-place combination based on univariate analysis (but including the autoregressive term) ( Table 1) . Land-use diversity, chicken density, poultry flock size diversity and distance to national highway were found to have significant associations across five of the six wave-place combinations. power of the GLMM models, as measured by the AUC, is very good with AUC values ranging from 0.802 to 0.952 (Tables 2-7 ). The predictive power of the national models was higher than that of the delta models. The predictive power of the BRT models is good, with AUCs ranging from 0.737 to 0.914. The BRT models also had a better predictive power at the national level than at the delta level. These values are higher than those reported for Wave 1 (AUC = 0.69) and Wave 2 (AUC = 0.77) by Gilbert et al. [11] . Both Gilbert et al. [11] and this study found that at the national level the predictive performance for Wave 2 was higher than that for Wave 1. Wave 2 mainly affected the Mekong River Delta. Previous studies indicated the duck density was an important predictor [11] ; our results, however, indicated that the diversity of duck flock size was a more important predictor than duck density. Both the GLMM and BRT models found annual precipitation to be a significant factor. The GLMM model indicated a negative association; similar to what was found by studies in China [51] and in the Red River Delta [53] . A global study of human cases also found occurrence to be higher under drier conditions [74] . Generally, the role of precipitation was found to be far more significant in the deltas than for the country as a whole. The unadjusted Relative Risk (RR) of peri-urban areas in comparison with non-peri-urban areas was 1.41 and 1.60 for Waves 1 and 2, respectively. In terms of urbanicity, we found that chicken density, percentage of land under rice, percentage of land under aquaculture, flock size diversity for duck and geese, and the Compound Topographical Index (CTI) to be highest in peri-urban areas (Fig 1a-1e) . We also found that land-use diversity was higher in rural areas, but peri-urban areas had diversity levels only marginally lower (Fig 1f) . The urbanicity variable alone, however, was not found to be significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 in any place according to the GLMM model except for the urban level in Red River Delta for Wave 2 and in the Mekong River Delta for Wave 1. The BRT model ranked urbanicity as one of the least influential variables. Land-use diversity was found to be significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 in both waves for Viet Nam according to the GLMM model, but at the delta level the association was significant only for Wave 2 in the Mekong River Delta. The BRT model indicated that land-use diversity highly influenced HPAI H5N1 at the national level in Wave 2. For the remaining waveplace combinations land-use diversity had middle to below-middle rank of influence. Both the GLMM and BRT models indicated that the diversity of chicken flock-size had a strong association with HPAI H5N1 for both waves at the national level. This was generally found to be true at the delta levels with some exceptions. The diversity of duck and goose flock size was also significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 in all places, but the associations were much stronger in Wave 2 than in Wave 1. The GLMM model indicated that the CTI had a very strong association with HPAI H5N1 at the national level in both waves although this was not true in the two deltas. The CTI is a steady state wetness index commonly used to quantify topographic control on hydrological processes. Accumulation numbers in flat areas, like deltas, are very large; hence the CTI was not a relevant variable in the GLMM model in these areas. The BRT model however indicated that CTI had middle to low influence in all waves and places. We found very high spatial clustering effects as indicated by the fact that in all waves and places the BRT model found the spatial autocorrelation term to have the highest rank of influence. As expected, the relative influence of the autocorrelation term at the national level was higher (60-78%) than at the delta levels (14-35%). In the GLMM models we found the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) using the entire set of 14 variables to be much lower than the AICs of a GLMM model without fixed effects. This indicated that though clustering effects were significant, our theory driven predictor variables improved model performance. A limitation of using surveillance methods for the dependent variable (poultry outbreaks) is that the data may have reporting/detection biases [11] . Under-reporting/detection in rural areas as compared to peri-urban areas is possible. We believe that the urbanicity and the shortest distance to nearest town risk factors serve as rough proxies for reporting/detection efficiency. Previous studies have tended to use human population density as a proxy for this purpose. In our study we found a strong association between human population density and urbanicity. But we acknowledge that a categorical variable such as urbanicity may provide less sensitivity than a continuous variable such as human population density in this specific context. This study explored the validity of a general model for disease emergence that combined the IOM 'convergence model' [6] and the social-ecological systems model [7, 8] , for investigating the specific case of HPAI in Vietnam. We sought to test the hypotheses that measures of urbanization, land-use diversification, and poultry intensification are correlated with outbreaks in poultry. Our results generally support the hypothesis that social-ecological system transformations are associated with H5NI outbreaks in poultry. The results presented here highlight three main findings: 1) when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor; but in peri-urban landscapes emergence factors converge, including higher levels of chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and fraction of land under rice or aquaculture; 2) high land-use diversity landscapes, a variable not previously considered in spatial studies of HPAI H5N1, are at significantly greater risk for HPAI H5N1 outbreaks; as are 3) landscapes where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are co-located. Only one other study has explicitly examined urbanicity in the context of HPAI H5N1. Loth et al. [17] found peri-urban areas in Indonesia were significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 cases, even based on multivariate models. Our study, however, attempted both to associate HPAI H5N1 with degree of urbanicity and to determine the features of peri-urban areas that place them at risk. When those features (i.e., chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and the fraction of land under rice or aquaculture) are included in multivariate models, the role of the urbanization variable per se diminishes. We found in the main river deltas in Viet Nam (Red River and Mekong), urbanization had no significant association with HPAI H5N1. This may be due to the fact that the deltas are more homogenous, in terms of urbanization, than the country as a whole. This is the first study to examine land-use diversity as a risk factor for HPAI H5N1. Measured by the Gini-Simpson Diversity Index of the five land-use classes on which data were collected in the 2006 Viet Nam Agricultural Census, and the presence or absence of HPAI outbreaks at the commune level, our results indicate a strong association between land-use diversity and HPAI H5N1 at the national level and in the Mekong River Delta. This metric captures both the variety of habitats and of the complexity of geospatial patterning likely associated with transmission intensity. Our results are similar to what has been observed by studies of other EIDs using fragmentation metrics (e.g. [75] [76] [77] . This is one of the few studies, however, to link landscape fragmentation to an EID disease in poultry and not just to the vector and/or hosts of the EID. Previous studies have focused on poultry production factors such as type of species, size of flocks, and extent of commercialization (e.g. [15, [17] [18] [19] . This study expands on those findings by providing evidence that when intensive and extensive systems of chicken and/or duck and geese production co-exist in the same commune, the commune experiences higher risk of disease outbreak. Future studies need to examine the biological causal mechanisms in this context. We suggest that national census data (particularly agricultural censuses) compiled at local levels of administration provide valuable information that are not available from remotely sensed data (such as poultry densities) or require a large amount of labor to map at national to larger scales (land-use diversity). Mapping land-use classes at the national scale for local administrative units (i.e., the 10,820 communes in Viet Nam) is not an insignificant task. Future studies, however, could examine the correlation between a census-based metric with metrics derived from remote sensing used to measure proportional abundance of each landcover type within a landscape [78] . Vietnam is relatively advanced in making digital national population and agricultural census data available in a format that can be linked to administrative boundaries. While other nations are beginning to develop similar capacities, in the short term the application of this method to other countries may be limited. Ultimately, both census and remotely sensed data can be used independently to map the urban transition and diversity of land use; these tools, however, may provide their greatest insights when used together. Another important contribution of this study was the discovery of the importance of CTI. So far CTI had been used only in ecological niche modeling studies of HPAI H5N1; the specific role and direction of influence of CTI had has so far been unknown. Our study, the first to use CTI as a risk factor, found it had a large positive influence on HPAI H5N1 risk at the national level. Previous studies have highlighted the role of surface water extent in the persistence and transmission of the HPAI H5N1 virus. These studies measured surface water extent as area covered by water, magnitude of seasonal flooding, distance to the nearest body of water, or other variables that are often difficult to map using remotely sensed data, especially for large area studies. CTI on the other hand has the potential to serve as an excellent surrogate which can easily be measured in a GIS database. The national and regional (delta) models differed quite considerably, both in terms of performance and significant risk factors. In the deltas we commonly found only chicken density, duck flock size diversity and annual precipitation to be significant. This suggests dynamics of risk at the commune level are strongly dependent on the spatial range of analysis, consistent with another study in the Mekong Delta [61] . Though that study's model initially included three dozen commonly known risk factors, the significant risk factors were limited to poultry flock density, proportion households with electricity, re-scaled NDVI median May-October, buffalo density and sweet potato yield. Another study in the Red River Delta [79] found that in addition to the typical poultry density metrics, only the presence of poultry traders was significant. We speculate that for smaller regions, especially for known hot-spots, the relevant risk factors are those that reflect short-range, short-term driving forces such as poultry trading, presence of live bird markets and wet markets etc. Improving model performance for smaller regions would require highly refined and nuanced metrics for poultry trading, road infrastructure, water bodies, etc.-data that are typically not available through census surveys. The differences between the national and regional models suggest that our results can inform planners making decisions at different hierarchical levels of jurisdiction: national, region and local. Our study has the potential to inform the design of future research related to the epidemiology of other EIDs in Viet Nam and elsewhere. For example, we speculate that in Southeast Asia, Japanese encephalitis, the transmission of which is associated with rice cultivation and flood irrigation [80] , may also show a strong association with peri-urbanization. In some areas of Asia these ecological conditions occur near, or occasionally within, urban centers. Likewise, Hantaan virus, the cause of Korean hemorrhagic fever, is associated with the field mouse Apodemus agrarius and rice harvesting in fields where the rodents are present [80] . Our work has demonstrated that the percentage of land under rice in peri-urban areas and rural areas is similar. Hence diseases associated with rice production are likely to peak in peri-urban areas given other risk factors such as land-use diversity, CTI, and distance to infrastructure. Our poultry flock-size diversity findings may also be relevant to understanding the dynamics of other poultry related infections such as Newcastle disease. Finally, these results suggest the validity of a general model of zoonotic disease emergence that integrates IOM's convergence model with the subsequently proposed social-ecological systems and EID framework. Thus, convergence represents the coalescence in time and space of processes associated with land-cover and land-use changes. Project results question whether the urban/rural land-use dichotomy is useful when large areas and parts of the population are caught between the two. Planners need better tools for mapping the rural-urban transition, and for understanding how the specific nature of peri-urban environments creates elevated health risk that require adaptation of existing planning, land use, and development practices.

What is the relationship between aquaculture and spread of H5N1 like diseases?

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068164/ SHA: ce358c18aac69fc83c7b2e9a7dca4a43b0f60e2e Authors: Spiteri, Gianfranco; Fielding, James; Diercke, Michaela; Campese, Christine; Enouf, Vincent; Gaymard, Alexandre; Bella, Antonino; Sognamiglio, Paola; Sierra Moros, Maria José; Riutort, Antonio Nicolau; Demina, Yulia V.; Mahieu, Romain; Broas, Markku; Bengnér, Malin; Buda, Silke; Schilling, Julia; Filleul, Laurent; Lepoutre, Agnès; Saura, Christine; Mailles, Alexandra; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Coignard, Bruno; Bernard-Stoecklin, Sibylle; Behillil, Sylvie; van der Werf, Sylvie; Valette, Martine; Lina, Bruno; Riccardo, Flavia; Nicastri, Emanuele; Casas, Inmaculada; Larrauri, Amparo; Salom Castell, Magdalena; Pozo, Francisco; Maksyutov, Rinat A.; Martin, Charlotte; Van Ranst, Marc; Bossuyt, Nathalie; Siira, Lotta; Sane, Jussi; Tegmark-Wisell, Karin; Palmérus, Maria; Broberg, Eeva K.; Beauté, Julien; Jorgensen, Pernille; Bundle, Nick; Pereyaslov, Dmitriy; Adlhoch, Cornelia; Pukkila, Jukka; Pebody, Richard; Olsen, Sonja; Ciancio, Bruno Christian Date: 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.9.2000178 License: cc-by Abstract: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters’ index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. Text: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. A cluster of pneumonia of unknown origin was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1] . On 12 January 2020, Chinese authorities shared the sequence of a novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from some clustered cases [2] . Since then, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID -19) . As at 21 February 2020, the virus had spread rapidly mostly within China but also to 28 other countries, including in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region [3] [4] [5] . Here we describe the epidemiology of the first cases of COVID-19 in this region, excluding cases reported in the United Kingdom (UK), as at 21 February 2020. The study includes a comparison between cases detected among travellers from China and cases whose infection was acquired due to subsequent local transmission. On 27 January 2020, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe asked countries to complete a WHO standard COVID-19 case report form for all confirmed and probable cases according to WHO criteria [6] [7] [8] . The overall aim of surveillance at this time was to support the global strategy of containment of COVID-19 with rapid identification and follow-up of cases linked to affected countries in order to minimise onward transmission. The surveillance objectives were to: describe the key epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected in Europe; inform country preparedness; and improve further case detection and management. Data collected included demographics, history of recent travel to affected areas, close contact with a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, underlying conditions, signs and symptoms of disease at onset, type of specimens from which the virus was detected, and clinical outcome. The WHO case definition was adopted for surveillance: a confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (ECDC recommended two separate SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests), irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms, whereas a probable case was a suspect case for whom testing for SARS-CoV-2 was inconclusive or positive using a pan-coronavirus assay [8] . By 31 January 2020, 47 laboratories in 31 countries, including 38 laboratories in 24 European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries, had diagnostic capability for SARS-CoV-2 available (close to 60% of countries in the WHO European Region), with cross-border shipment arrangements in place for many of those lacking domestic testing capacity. The remaining six EU/EEA countries were expected to have diagnostic testing available by mid-February [9] . As at 09:00 on 21 February 2020, 47 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the WHO European Region and one of these cases had died [4] . Data on 38 of these cases (i.e. all except the nine reported in the UK) are included in this analysis. The first three cases detected were reported in France on 24 January 2020 and had onset of symptoms on 17, 19 and 23 January respectively [10] . The first death was reported on 15 February in France. As at 21 February, nine countries had reported cases ( Figure) : Belgium (1), Finland (1), France (12), Germany (16), Italy (3), Russia (2), Spain (2), Sweden (1) and the UK (9 -not included further). The place of infection (assessed at national level based on an incubation period presumed to be up to 14 days [11] , travel history and contact with probable or confirmed cases as per the case definition) was reported for 35 cases (missing for three cases), of whom 14 were infected in China (Hubei province: 10 cases; Shandong province: one case; province not reported for three cases). The remaining 21 cases were infected in Europe. Of these, 14 were linked to a cluster in Bavaria, Germany, and seven to a cluster in Haute-Savoie, France [12, 13] . Cases from the Bavarian cluster were reported from Germany and Spain, whereas cases from the Haute-Savoie cluster were reported from France All but two cases were hospitalised (35 of 37 where information on hospitalisation was reported), although it is likely that most were hospitalised to isolate the person rather than because of severe disease. The time from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation (and isolation) ranged between 0 and 10 days with a mean of 3.7 days (reported for 29 cases). The mean number of days to hospitalisation was 2.5 days for cases imported from China, but 4.6 days for those infected in Europe. This was mostly a result of delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany. In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six took only a mean of 2 days to be hospitalised. Symptoms at the point of diagnosis were reported for 31 cases. Two cases were asymptomatic and remained so until tested negative. The asymptomatic cases were tested as part of screening following repatriation and during contact tracing respectively. Of the remaining 29, 20 reported fever, 14 reported cough and eight reported weakness. Additional symptoms reported included headaches (6 cases), sore throat (2), rhinorrhoea (2), shortness of breath (2), myalgia (1), diarrhoea (1) and nausea (1). Fever was reported as the sole symptom for nine cases. In 16 of 29 symptomatic cases, the symptoms at diagnosis were consistent with the case definition for acute respiratory infection [16] , although it is possible that cases presented additional symptoms after diagnosis and these were not reported. Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease. No data on clinical signs e.g. dyspnea etc. were reported for any of the 38 cases. All hospitalised cases had a benign clinical evolution except four, two reported in Italy and two reported in France, all of whom developed viral pneumonia. All three cases who were aged 65 years or over were admitted to intensive care and required respiratory support and one French case died. The case who died was hospitalised for 21 days and required intensive care and mechanical ventilation for 19 days. The duration of hospitalisation was reported for 16 cases with a median of 13 days (range: 8-23 days). As at 21 February 2020, four cases were still hospitalised. All cases were confirmed according to specific assays targeting at least two separate genes (envelope (E) gene as a screening test and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene or nucleoprotein (N) gene for confirmation) [8, 17] . The specimen types tested were reported for 27 cases: 15 had positive nasopharyngeal swabs, nine had positive throat swabs, three cases had positive sputum, two had a positive nasal swab, one case had a positive nasopharyngeal aspirate and one a positive endotracheal aspirate. As at 09:00 on 21 February, few COVID-19 cases had been detected in Europe compared with Asia. However the situation is rapidly developing, with a large outbreak recently identified in northern Italy, with transmission in several municipalities and at least two deaths [18] . As at 5 March 2020, there are 4,250 cases including 113 deaths reported among 38 countries in the WHO European region [19] . In our analysis of early cases, we observed transmission in two broad contexts: sporadic cases among travellers from China (14 cases) and cases who acquired infection due to subsequent local transmission in Europe (21 cases). Our analysis shows that the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation/case isolation was about 3 days longer for locally acquired cases than for imported cases. People returning from affected areas are likely to have a low threshold to seek care and be tested when symptomatic, however delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany meant that locally acquired cases took longer to be detected and isolated. Once the exposure is determined and contacts identified and quarantined (171 contacts in France and 200 in Germany for the clusters in Haute-Savoie and Bavaria, respectively), further cases are likely to be rapidly detected and isolated when they develop symptoms [15, 20] . In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six were hospitalised after a mean of 2 days. Locally acquired cases require significant resources for contact tracing and quarantine, and countries should be prepared to allocate considerable public health resources during the containment phase, should local clusters emerge in their population. In addition, prompt sharing of information on cases and contacts through international notification systems such as the International Health Regulations (IHR) mechanism and the European Commission's European Early Warning and Response System is essential to contain international spread of infection. All of the imported cases had a history of travel to China. This was consistent with the epidemiological situation in Asia, and supported the recommendation for testing of suspected cases with travel history to China and potentially other areas of presumed ongoing community transmission. The situation has evolved rapidly since then, however, and the number of countries reporting COVID-19 transmission increased rapidly, notably with a large outbreak in northern Italy with 3,089 cases reported as at 5 March [18, 19] . Testing of suspected cases based on geographical risk of importation needs to be complemented with additional approaches to ensure early detection of local circulation of COVID-19, including through testing of severe acute respiratory infections in hospitals irrespectively of travel history as recommended in the WHO case definition updated on 27 February 2020 [21] . The clinical presentation observed in the cases in Europe is that of an acute respiratory infection. However, of the 31 cases with information on symptoms, 20 cases presented with fever and nine cases presented only with fever and no other symptoms. These findings, which are consistent with other published case series, have prompted ECDC to include fever among several clinical signs or symptoms indicative for the suspected case definition. Three cases were aged 65 years or over. All required admission to intensive care and were tourists (imported cases). These findings could reflect the average older age of the tourist population compared with the local contacts exposed to infection in Europe and do not allow us to draw any conclusion on the proportion of severe cases that we could expect in the general population of Europe. Despite this, the finding of older individuals being at higher risk of a severe clinical course is consistent with the evidence from Chinese case series published so far although the majority of infections in China have been mild [22, 23] . This preliminary analysis is based on the first reported cases of COVID-19 cases in the WHO European Region. Given the small sample size, and limited completeness for some variables, all the results presented should be interpreted with caution. With increasing numbers of cases in Europe, data from surveillance and investigations in the region can build on the evidence from countries in Asia experiencing more widespread transmission particularly on disease spectrum and the proportion of infections with severe outcome [22] . Understanding the infection-severity is critical to help plan for the impact on the healthcare system and the wider population. Serological studies are vital to understand the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic. Hospital-based surveillance could help estimate the incidence of severe cases and identify risk factors for severity and death. Established hospital surveillance systems that are in place for influenza and other diseases in Europe may be expanded for this purpose. In addition, a number of countries in Europe are adapting and, in some cases, already using existing sentinel primary care based surveillance systems for influenza to detect community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This approach will be used globally to help identify evidence of widespread community transmission and, should the virus spread and containment no longer be deemed feasible, to monitor intensity of disease transmission, trends and its geographical spread. Additional research is needed to complement surveillance data to build knowledge on the infectious period, modes of transmission, basic and effective reproduction numbers, and effectiveness of prevention and case management options also in settings outside of China. Such special studies are being conducted globally, including a cohort study on citizens repatriated from China to Europe, with the aim to extrapolate disease incidence and risk factors for infection in areas with community transmission. Countries together with ECDC and WHO, should use all opportunities to address these questions in a coordinated fashion at the European and global level. provided input to the outline, multiple versions of the manuscript and gave approval to the final draft.

What is the presumed incubation period?

Clara Cell 10 kDa Protein Alleviates Murine Hepatitis Virus Strain 3-Induced Fulminant Hepatitis by Inhibiting Fibrinogen-Like Protein 2 Expression https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6300492/ SHA: f0c2cd2793d71f1ea11a810442a2c06d5013e899 Authors: Yu, Haijing; Liu, Yang; Wang, Hongwu; Wan, Xiaoyang; Huang, Jiaquan; Yan, Weiming; Xi, Dong; Luo, Xiaoping; Shen, Guanxin; Ning, Qin Date: 2018-12-13 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2018.02935 License: cc-by Abstract: Background: Fulminant hepatitis (FH) is a serious threat to human life, accompanied by massive and rapid necroinflammation. Kupffer cells, the major immune cell population involved in innate immune responses, are considered to be central for FH. Fibrinogen-like protein 2 (Fgl2) is a pro-coagulant protein that is substantially induced in macrophages upon viral infection, and Fgl2 depletion represses murine hepatitis virus strain 3 (MHV-3) infection. Clara cell 10 kDa (CC10) protein is a secretory protein with anti-inflammatory properties in allergic rhinitis and asthma. However, its mechanisms of action and pathogenic roles in other disease are still unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the role of CC10 in FH and the regulation of Fgl2 by CC10. Methods: A mouse FH model was established by peritoneal injection of MHV-3. The mice received CC10 protein through tail vein injection before viral infection. Survival rate, liver function, liver histology, fibrin deposition, and necrosis were examined. The regulatory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression was investigated using THP-1 cells and mouse peritoneal macrophages in vitro. Results: In the mouse FH model induced by MHV-3, the survival rate increased from 0 to 12.5% in the CC10 group compared to that in the saline-only control group. Meanwhile, the levels of ALT and AST in serum were significantly decreased and liver damage was reduced. Furthermore, hepatic Fgl2, TNF-α, and IL-1β expression was obviously downregulated together with fibrin deposition, and hepatocyte apoptosis was reduced after administration of CC10 protein. In vitro, CC10 was found to significantly inhibit the expression of Fgl2 in IFN-γ-treated THP-1 cells and MHV-3-infected mouse peritoneal macrophages by western blot and real-time PCR. However, there was no direct interaction between CC10 and Fgl2 as shown by co-immunoprecipitation. Microarray investigations suggested that HMG-box transcription factor 1 (HBP1) was significantly low in CC10-treated and IFN-γ-primed THP-1 cells. HBP1-siRNA treatment abrogated the inhibitory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression in Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial cells (HUVECs). Conclusion:CC10 protects against MHV-3-induced FH via suppression of Fgl2 expression in macrophages. Such effects may be mediated by the transcription factor HBP1. Text: Fulminant hepatitis (FH) is a serious life-threatening disease characterized by massive hepatocyte necrosis, severe liver damage, and high mortality. The underlying mechanisms and the pathogenesis of FH are not clear. However, accumulating evidence suggests that, regardless of the pathogenesis of FH, the host's inflammatory responses contribute to liver microcirculatory disorders and injuries. Accordingly, It has been shown that immune cell activation and inflammatory cytokines play an important role in FH (1) . In recent years, our laboratory has conducted extensive research on the pathogenesis of FH and found that immune cells play a key role in it. Kupffer cells, natural killer (NK) cells (2, 3) , cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs), and double negative T-cells (DNT) (4) (5) (6) in liver and the cytokines that are produced by these cells cause liver damage. Prothrombinase Fgl2 belongs to the fibrinogen superfamily and is produced by activated macrophages or endothelial cells, transforming prothrombin directly into thrombin, so as to quickly initiate the process of coagulation. This promotes the conversion of fibrinogen into fibrin, resulting in thrombosis (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) . Our study found that Fgl2 was highly expressed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and in liver tissue of humans or mice with severe viral hepatitis, and was positively related to the severity of the disease (13, 14) . Gene therapy targeting Fgl2 silencing showed that the survival rate of fulminant hepatitis mice increased from 0 to 33.3% (15) . Thus far, the discovery and related research involving Fgl2 have provided new insights into the molecular mechanism of hepatocyte necrosis in FH. In view of the important role of Fgl2 in severe viral hepatitis, investigations concerning the regulation of Fgl2 will be beneficial in the search for new strategies for treatment of severe hepatitis. Clara cell 10 kDa protein (CC10), also considered to be uteroglobin, Clara cell secretory protein, is one of members of secretoglobin superfamily. Expressed in mucosal epithelial cells of organs (including lungs and nose) that communicated with the outside world (16) . CC10 has immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects. Compared to wild-type mice, CC10-knockout mice exhibited excessive airway inflammation Abbreviations: FH, fulminant hepatitis; MHV-3, murine hepatitis virus strain 3; Fgl2, Fibrinogen-like protein 2; CC10, Clara cell 10 KDa protein; ALF, acute liver failure; PFU, plaque-forming units; PBS, phosphate-buffered saline; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; PCA, pro-coagulant activity; HRP, horseradish peroxidase; TUNEL, terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling. caused by allergic reaction and bacterial and viral infections (17) . Reduced levels of CC10 are associated with inflammatory and allergic airway diseases, including sinusitis, asthma and allergic rhinitis (18) (19) (20) (21) . Previous studies and published articles show that CC10 protein can not only inhibit Th17 cell responses by inhibiting expression of related molecules of dendritic cells and cytokines in mice with allergic rhinitis, but also can inhibit chitosan-3 like protein 1 (22, 23) . Moreover, CC10 inhibits the expression of an important immune regulator, osteopontin (OPN), in models of allergic rhinitis (21) . In this study, we investigated the role of CC10 in hepatitis virus strain 3 (MHV-3)-induced FH in mice and explored whether CC10 protein could regulate Fgl2 in the disease process. Female BALB/cJ mice (Shanghai Shilaike Animal Seed Center, Shanghai, China), 6-8 weeks of age, with a body weight of 18.0-20.0 g, were kept in Tongji Hospital with food and water. Mice were divided into two groups: CC10 group (experimental group) and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) group (control group). This study was carried out in accordance with the recommendations of the guidelines of the National Institutes of Health and the Animal Experiment Committee of Tongji hospital. This study was reviewed and approved by the Animal Experiment Committee of Tongji hospital. The human monocyte cell line THP-1 was purchased from the Cell Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Shanghai, China). Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) were obtained from the Biology Treasure Center of Wuhan University, China. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell line was acquired from the typical culture preservation commission cell bank, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Shanghai, China). Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) and CHO cells were cultured in Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (DMEM), and THP-1 cells were maintained in RPMI 1,640 containing 10% heat inactivated fetal bovine serum (FBS, Gibco Life Technologies, USA), 100 U/mL penicillin, and 100 mg/mL streptomycin and cultured at 37 • C, 50 mL/L CO 2 and 95% humidity. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were obtained from BALB/cJ mice. Cells were resuspended in RPMI 1,640 supplemented with 10% FBS at 1-2 × 10 6 cells/mL in a 6-well plate and incubated for 4 h. They were then washed with RPMI 1640 medium and non-adherent cells discarded. The adherent cells were macrophages and were incubated for a further 12 h. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were divided into two groups. One group was supplemented with CC10 protein (150 ng/mL) and in the other group, PBS was added. After 2 h of stimulation, 1,000 plaque forming units (PFUs) of MHV-3 was added to the cells, which were then cultured for 4 h. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were harvested and lysed for real-time PCR and western blotting analysis. Cell apoptosis was detected by the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) method with a TUNEL apoptosis detection kit (Roche, Switzerland). Briefly, 5 µm sections were deparaffinized, dehydrated through an alcohol series and incubated with proteinase K for 30 min at 37 • C. After stopping the proteinase K digestion reaction with PBS, the samples were incubated with terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase end-labeling cocktail (a mixture of terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase and dUTP at a ratio of 2:29, respectively), for 2 h at 37 • C in an immunohistochemistry wet box. Following washing and blocking, each section was supplemented with reagent (converter-POD) to cover the tissues and incubated for 30 min at 37 • C in a wet box. Then, the liver tissue sections were washed with PBS, and colored with diaminobenzidine (DAB) subsequently. Hepatocytes with nucleus stained brownish yellow were considered to be apoptotic cells. The expression of Fgl2 on THP-1 cells was measured by flow cytometry (BD FACS Canto II, USA). Briefly, cells (2 × 10 5 per tube) were incubated with Human TruStrain FcX (Fc Receptor Blocking solution, BioLegend, USA) for 10 min at room temperature and then incubated in the dark with mouse anti-Fgl2 antibody (1:100, Abnova,) or normal goat serum (an isotype control) at 4 • C for 40 min. Cells were washed with PBS and incubated in the dark with PE-conjugated goat anti-mouse IgG antibody (1:50, BioLegend, USA) at 4 • C for 30 min. Cells were then washed with PBS and resuspended in 300 µL PBS for study. Liver slices were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde and then embedded in paraffin. Immunohistochemistry of liver tissues was performed using SP-9001 SPlink Detection Kits (Biotin-Streptavidin HRP Detection Systems) (ZSGB-BIO, Beijing, China) according to the manufacturer's instructions. For immunohistochemistry staining, the expression of Fgl2, fibrinogen, Fas and TNF-receptor 1 in mouse liver tissues was detected with polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse Fgl2 antibody (1:100, Proteintech, USA), polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse fibrinogen antibody (1:1,000, Abcam, EngLand), polyclonal rabbit antimouse Fas antibody (1:50, Abcam, EngLand), and polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse TNF-receptor 1 antibody (1:500, Abcam, EngLand), respectively. After incubation with an horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-labeled goat IgG fraction to rabbit IgG Fc, the target protein was detected using a DAB kit (ZSGB-BIO, Beijing, China). The slides were then counterstained with hematoxylin and visualized under a microscope (Olympus, Tokyo, Japan). Liver tissue and cells were homogenized in RIPA lysis buffer with phenyl methane sulfonyl fluoride (PMSF) protease inhibitor. Protein lysates were separated by SDS-PAGE, and western blotting was performed using a monoclonal mouse antihuman/mouse Fgl2 (1:750, Abnova), a monoclonal mouse antihuman HBP1 (1:100, Santa Cruz, USA), and a monoclonal rabbit anti-human/mouse β-actin (1:1,000, Cell Signaling Technology, USA). Liver tissues were collected from MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice at 72 h, and total RNA was extracted using Trizol Reagent (Invitrogen, USA) and then reverse transcribed into cDNA by using ReverTra Ace qPCR RT kit (TOYOBO, Japan). The cDNA was then amplified by RT-PCR by using Dream Taq Green PCR Master Mix (2 ×) (Thermo Scientific, USA). Realtime quantitative PCR (qPCR) with SYBR Green Real-time PCR Master Mix (TOYOBO, Japan) was performed using a CFX96 real-time PCR detection system (Bio-Rad, USA) and mRNA levels were normalized with reference to those of the house keeping gene GAPDH. Primer sequences for qPCR amplification were as follows: mTNF-α forward, 5 ′ -TTT GAG ATC CAT GCC GTT GG-3 ′ ; mTNF-α reverse, 5 ′ -GCCA CCA CGC TCT TCT GT-3 ′ ; mIL-1β forward, 5 ′ -TGT AAT GAA AGA CGG CAC ACC-3 ′ ; mIL-1β reverse, 5 ′ -TCT TCT TTG GGT ATT GCT TGG-3 ′ . mFgl2 forward, 5 ′ -GCC AAA TGT GAG TCC CTG GAA-3 ′ ; mFgl2 reverse, 5 ′ -TTC CAC CCA AGA GCA CGT TTA AG-3 ′ ; hFgl2 forward 5 ′ -ACA GTT CAG GCT GGT GGT-3 ′ ; hFgl2 reverse, 5 ′ -GGC TTA AAG TGC TTG GGT-3 ′ ; HBP1 forward, 5 ′ -TGA AGC AGA AGC TGG GAGT-3 ′ ; HBP1 reverse, THP-1 cells were treated with 100 ng/ml phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (Sigma, USA) for 48 h to induce differentiation toward adherent macrophage-like cells as reported previously (24) . The CC10 group was supplemented with CC10 protein (150 ng/ml). After 2 h of stimulation, IFN-γ (10 ng/ml) was added to these cells, which were then cultured for 12 h before they were collected for western blotting and real-time PCR studies. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells were cultured in 10 cm cell culture dishes with DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS until 80-90% confluence. Next, 12 µg pcDNA3.1-hFgl2 (constructed in our lab) was mixed with 12 µg pcDNA3.1-hCC10 in serumfree DMEM. The mixture was then combined with Lipofectamine 2,000 (Invitrogen, USA) and mixed gently. After incubation at 27 • C for 20 min, the solution was added to CHO cells and incubated at 37 • C in 5% CO 2 . Four to Six hour after transfection, the medium was removed and fresh medium containing 10% FBS was added. At 48 h after transfection, the cells were collected for co-immunoprecipitation analysis to evaluate the interaction of CC10 with Fgl2. Both HUVEC and THP-1 cells express fgl2. However, in the transfection experiments, it is difficult to transfect the THP-1 cells with siRNA, so we use HUVEC instead of THP-1. Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) were cultured in FIGURE 1 | CC10 protein increased survival rate and reduced liver damage in mice. (A) The survival rate of CC10 group is higher than the control group comprised of MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice treated with saline. CC10 protein (2 µg) or saline were injected into mice by tail vein. BALB/cJ mice then received 100 PFU of MHV-3 intraperitoneally 24 h later to develop fulminant viral hepatitis. Then, CC10 protein (2 µg) or saline were injected into mice by tail vein following MHV-3 infection 24 h later. The survival rate was observed for 10 days (n = 24/group). Representative data from three independent experiments are shown. The survival curve was analyzed by using the Log-Rank Test. ***P < 0.001 compared with saline group. (B) Histopathology of liver tissues (H&E staining; original magnification, ×400, n = 5/group) at 72 h post-MHV-3 infection was evaluated in the two groups of MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice. Livers were collected from saline-treated (a) and CC10-treated (b) BALB/cJ mice at 72 h after MHV-3 infection. Arrows point to inflammatory cell infiltration areas or necrotic regions with inflammation. (C) Effect of CC10 on serum ALT and AST levels (n = 6-8/group). Values represent means and standard error of three independent experiments performed in triplicate. **P < 0.01 compared with the saline group. six-well plates with DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS until 70-80% confluence. 50 pmol HBP1-siRNA was mixed with 125 µl serum-free DMEM. Two microliter Lipofectamine 2,000 was gently mixed with serum-free DMEM. After incubation at 27 • C for 5 min, the solution was added to HUVECs and incubated at 37 • C. Four hour after transfection, the medium was removed and fresh medium containing 10% FBS was added. At 48 h after transfection, cells were collected for real-time PCR and western blot analysis to evaluate the effects of HBP1 on Fgl2. At 24 h after transfection, the CC10 group was supplemented with the CC10 protein (150 ng/mL). After 4 h of stimulation, IFN-γ (10 ng/mL) was added to these cells. These cells were then cultured for 24 h before they were harvested for real-time PCR studies to evaluate the effects of CC10 on Fgl2 by HBP1. Negative control was used as a control. To detect whether there was a potential interaction between CC10 protein and Fgl2, CHO cells were transfected with pcDNA3.1-hCC10 and pcDNA3.1-hFgl2 for 48 h. Cells transfected with empty plasmid pcDNA3.1 (mock) were used as negative controls for CC10 gene transfection. Immunoprecipitation and immunoblotting were performed by using Pierce Co-Immunoprecipitation Kit (Pierce, USA). Total cell proteins were extracted as previously described (25) . The proteins were immunoprecipitated by mouse anti-human Fgl2 antibody (1:500, Abnova). For co-immunoprecipitation experiments, western blotting was performed using both rat anti-human uteroglobin/SCGB1A1 Antibody (1:750, R&D, USA) Frontiers in Immunology | www.frontiersin.org and mouse anti-human Fgl2 antibody (1:500, Abnova). Control isotype rat IgG1 was used as a negative control for primary antibodies. The human CC10 coding region gene, including a 389 bp sequence, was amplified from homogenized human turbinate tissue by RT-PCR. In this study, the sequences of PCR primers for CC10 were as follows: hCC10-forward, 5 ′ -CCC TCC ACC ATG AAA CTCG-3 ′ ; hCC10-reverse, 5 ′ -TGA GAT GCT TGT GGT TTA TTG AAG-3 ′ . The PCR products were cloned into pEASY-T1 cloning vector (TransGEN, Beijing, China) and then subcloned into HindIII/XbaI site of pcDNA3.1 vector (Invitrogen, USA) to form eukaryotic expression plasmids pcDNA3.1-hCC10. Microarray analysis was used to screen changes in genome-wide gene expression patterns in THP-1 cells with or without CC10 protein. The changes in over 47,000 human gene expression patterns were assessed using Affymetrix gene microarrays (Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0) (CapitalBio Co.,Ltd., Beijing, China). Three replicates were used for microarrays analysis. Data obtained from the experiments are expressed as means ± SEM. Survival curve comparisons were performed with the Log Rank test. Multiple group analyses for data were evaluated by one-way analyses of variance. Analyses of two group results were performed using Student's t-test to evaluate the statistical significance of differences. Values of P < 0.05 indicated significance. To establish an animal model of mouse FH, MHV-3 was injected intraperitoneally to BALB/cJ mice (24 mice/group). To further study the role of CC10 in FH, recombinant mouse CC10 protein (2 µg/mouse) or saline was administrated into the tail vein 24 h prior to MHV-3 infection. The same dose of CC10 protein or saline was then administered 24 h later. The survival rate of the CC10 and saline groups was observed for 10 days. The results showed that mice in the two groups began to die at 48 h after injection of MHV-3 and exhibited symptoms of horripilation, slow activity, and reduced food consumption. In the CC10 group 24 mice were alive on day 3 after infection, 4 mice alive on day 4, and 3 of 24 (12.5%) mice recovered from fulminant viral hepatitis. At the same time, in saline treated group, there were 5 mice alive on day 3, 1 mice alive on day 4 after infection, and no mice survived to day 5. That is to say, the mice in the saline group died within 3 or 4 days. Three of 24 (12.5%) mice of the CC10 group recovered from fulminant viral hepatitis ( Figure 1A) . To better understand the mechanisms underlying the biological effects of the CC10 protein, liver function (ALT and AST levels in serum) and liver histology in mice of MHV-3-infected was performed. Liver tissues were harvested 72 h following MHV-3 infection, and liver histology was detected by H&E staining. These results showed that there was substantial inflammatory cell infiltration and widespread necrosis of hepatocytes in the liver tissue of the saline group mice (Figure 1Ba ). There were rare or no infiltrating inflammatory cells, and few or no hepatocyte necrosis in the livers of mice in the CC10 group 72 h after MHV-3 infection (Figure 1Bb) . Serum ALT and AST levels in mice were observed 72 h after MHV-3 infection. The results showed that serum ALT and AST levels in the saline group reached a peak 72 h after MHV-3 infection, but there was no significant increase in the CC10 group compared to the levels in the control group (P < 0.01, Figure 1C) . These results suggested that CC10 protein has a role in protection against MHV-3-induced liver injury in mice. To further elucidate the mechanisms of reduced liver injury following CC10 protein injection, we investigated the cytokines TNF-α and IL-1β expression. Because these two cytokines play a crucial role in the liver damage of FH. They are characterized by an increase in apoptosis. Levels of TNF-α and IL-1β in liver tissues were markedly reduced in the CC10 group (as shown in Figure 2A) . Hepatic apoptosis (Figure 2B ) was significantly reduced in the CC10 group. We and collaborators have a long standing interest in studying the role of fgl2 in viral hepatitis. Fgl2 has been verified to play an essential role in the progression of fulminant viral hepatitis as we appreciate from previous reports. We have provided liver pathology figures and liver function for MHV-3 infected mice with a fgl2 gene knockout as shown in Supplementary Figure 1 . The data was comparable with previous reports from our center and collaborators. From this current study we shown that CC10 plays a protective role in liver damage.To study the related molecules of CC10 in MHV-3-induced FH mice, we evaluated whether there was crosstalk between Fgl2 and CC10. We found that the expression of Fgl2 in the liver of mice was reduced 72 h after MHV-3 infection and treatment with CC10 protein (Figures 3A,B) . Furthermore, fibrin deposition, an indicator of liver injury associated with Fgl2 expression in FH, was also decreased in the livers of CC10-treated mice compared to that in controls (Figure 3C ). This indicates that CC10 treatment reduced liver injury after viral infection by inhibiting Fgl2 expression. We examined the effect of increasing doses of CC10 protein (0, 50, 150, and 300 ng/mL) on IFN-γ-induced Fgl2 expression in THP-1 cells. CC10 treatment showed a 10.1% decrease in THP-1 cells compared to that in control after stimulation with 10 ng/mL IFN-γ for 12 h. CC10 protein inhibited Fgl2 expression between doses of 0 ng/mL and 300 ng/mL (Figure 4A ). In particular, 150 ng/mL CC10 protein had the strongest inhibitory effect on Fgl2 expression among the doses, and we chose this dose for the following experiments. We explored the effect of different time points of stimulation with a concentration of 150 ng/mL CC10 protein. After stimulation with CC10 protein for 6, 12, and 24 h compared to the PBS control, the strongest inhibitory effect on Fgl2 expression was noted at 12 h; hence, we chose this time point for the following studies ( Figure 4B ). An increasing number of studies suggest that macrophages are the primary source of Fgl2. In order to ascertain that CC10 has a direct effect on macrophages, we treated THP-1 cells with recombinant CC10 and assessed the expression of Fgl2. Unlike in controls, IFN-γ induced a significant increase in Fgl2 expression. This effect was attenuated when cells were treated with CC10 protein (Figures 4C,D) , revealing that CC10 directly reduces the levels of Fgl2 in macrophages. To further explore the possibility that CC10 protein directly acts on macrophages, we infected murine PEMs with MHV-3 in the presence of recombinant CC10 and determined Fgl2 expression. Compared to levels in the controls, MHV-3infected macrophages exhibited a significant increase in Fgl2 production, and this effect was abolished by using CC10 protein (Figures 5A,B) , indicating that CC10 directly modulates Fgl2 production in macrophages. In order to determine genes that were downregulated after stimulation by CC10 protein, we used DNA microarray analysis to screen for differentially expressed genes. THP-1 cells were cultured and PMA was added to induce differentiation into macrophages. The production of Fgl2 was stimulated by IFNγ. The experimental group was treated with CC10 protein for microarray detection of differentially expressed genes. The results showed that the most obviously downregulated genes were UBE2W, HECTD1, MIR612, ATRX, SOX4, HBP1, and Fgl2 (Supplementary Table 1) . And then these genes were tested by qPCR. However, UBE2W, HECTD1, MIR612, ATRX, and SOX4 was not differentially expressed by qPCR, while HBP1 and fgl2 were still down-regulated genes. DNA microarray analysis identified HBP1 as a down-regulated gene involved in the pathological processes of the regulation of CC10. Recently, very limited studies have explored the role of HBP1 in FH. Nevertheless, the mechanistic functions of HBP1 in FH remain largely unexplored. Therefore, we selected this gene for further study. qPCR analysis confirmed that mRNA levels of HBP1 were significantly decreased in THP-1 cells after CC10 protein stimulation compared to that in the PBS control group (Figure 6A ). We knocked down HBP1 using HBP1-siRNA. Then, transfection of HBP1-SiRNA into HUVECs was detected by qPCR and western-blotting methods. As expected, HBP1 knockdown led to significantly decreased expression of HBP1 (Figures 6B,C) . Furthermore, HBP1 knockdown impaired expression of Fgl2 (Figure 6D ), suggesting that HBP1 was able to activate Fgl2. HBP1-SiRNA was used to transfect HUVECs. Then, IFN-γ was added to induce the expression of Fgl2 followed by stimulation with CC10 protein (150 ng/ml) after 2 h. Finally, we explored the expression of Fgl2 by qPCR. The results showed that HBP1-SiRNA treatment abrogated the inhibitory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression in HUVECs (Figure 7) . That is to say, CC10 could suppress Fgl2 expression in macrophages. Such an effect may be mediated by the transcription factor HBP1. It is well-known that CC10 protein can suppress the immune response. In animal models of allergic diseases of the respiratory tract, most of evidences confirm this inhibition (26) . Its function in FH has not been investigated yet. Here, we used a murine FH model established by MHV-3 infection to explore the effects of CC10 in this disease process. To determine the role of CC10 in the pathogenesis of FH, CC10 protein was injected into a mouse FH model established by MHV-3 infection. MHV-3-induced liver injury in CC10-treated mice occurred rarely and the areas of lesions were much fewer than those in saline-treated control mice. In summary, these results suggested that CC10 could reduce pathological liver damage in this FH model together with lower mortality rates followed by MHV-3 infection. MHV-3 induced fulminant viral hepatitis progresses rapidly and infected mice die within 3-5 days. Previous studies suggested fgl2 played a vital role in this process with a 15-40% increase of survival when fgl2 was deleted (12, 15, 27, 28) . Multiple inflammatory factors or mediators including TNF-α and IFN-γ, IL-1β and C5aR have been demonstrated to promote FH progression with significant discrepancies between liver damage and survival rate (29) (30) (31) (32) , which is accordant with our observation that CC10 substantially alleviated liver injury though survival rate improved mildly. The survival rate based on hours may be more accurate to examine the effect of CC10 on FH. It is speculated that fgl2 can mediate lethality in MHV-3-induced FH. This is due to the fact that fgl2 induces the deposition of fibrinogen, which leads to activation of the coagulation cascade and induction of procoagulant activity (15) . To determine whether the tissue necrosis was mediated by Fgl2 in CC10-treated mice following infection, Fgl2 expression was observed. Results suggested that the expression of Fgl2 was significantly increased in MHV-3-induced FH mice and CC10 treatment significantly reduced the production of Fgl2 in the infected liver and serum. In addition, decreased fibrinogen deposition was also observed in the livers of CC10-treated mice. Therefore, our research results strongly clarify that the lower mortality of CC10-treated mice after MHV-3 infection is due to the lower levels of Fgl2 and decreased fibrinogen deposition. Indeed, it has been reported that Fgl2 is expressed on macrophages, and the expression of Fgl2 is believed to be induced by IFN-γ and TNF-α (22) . Cultured THP-1 cells activated by IFN-γ or IL-2 have been demonstrated, with induction of Fgl2 expression and enhanced activation of human prothrombin (23) . Therefore, in this study, we explored this cell line to investigate the modulation of CC10 on Fgl2. Surprisingly, we found that CC10 directly inhibited IFN-γ-induced Fgl2 expression in THP-1 cells. As we know, IFN-γ has proved to be the main cytokine that leads to the development and progression of FH. Also, it was shown that IFN-γ might exert its own proinflammatory biological function through enhancing Fgl2 expression. Therefore, in our study, CC10 might counter the effect of IFN-γ in the setting of FH, which substantiates its role in FH. These results demonstrated that CC10 regulates the expression of Fgl2 in macrophages. In the current study, we used co-immunoprecipitation to analyze binding between CC10 and Fgl2. In this study, we investigated possible protein-protein interactions between CC10 and Fgl2 in vitro. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells transfected with pcDNA3.1-hCC10 and pcDNA3.1-hFgl2. Cellular proteins were immunoprecipitated with anti-CC10 antibody or anti-Fgl2 antibody. Immunoblotting was performed with anti-Fgl2 and anti-CC10 antibodies. Immunoprecipitation of protein extracts from pcDNA 3.1-CC10 and pcDNA3.1-Fgl2 co-transfected CHO cells with anti-Fgl2 or anti-CC10 antibody followed by western blotting with Fgl2 and CC10 antibodies indicated that CC10 did not co-immunoprecipitate with Fgl2, showing that there is no direct relationship between CC10 and Fgl2 (data not shown). The results showed that CC10 has no direct interaction with Fgl2. From our previous study the gene of fgl2 contributed profoundly in MHV-3 induced fulminant hepatitis and is extensively expressed in macrophages and endothelium (12, 33) . Our microarray indicated a CC10 down-regulated fgl2 expression and this is further confirmed by qPCR and Western blotting in vivo (peritoneal macrophages) and in vitro (THP-1, macrophage cell line). Therefore, it is reasonable to focus on macrophages to display the effect of CC10 on fgl2 expression and eventually mice survival. We entirely agree there may be other possibilities for a protective effect of CC10 to contribute to the disease process. This is worth further studies. The potential receptor of CC10 has not been revealed yet. Our previous study have demonstrated that CC10 have effect of dendritic cells in allergic rhinitis (34) . In this research, we evaluated the effect of CC10 on macrophages functions and found Fgl2 was substantially down-regulated upon CC10 treatment, therefore, we speculate that potential CC10 receptor may be also expressed on macrophages. The potential target of CC10 on other immune cells cannot be excluded. DNA microarray analysis is one of the most powerful approaches for the potential identification of unexpected genes involved in pathogenic processes. By using this approach, HMGbox transcription factor 1 (HBP1) was found to be one of the most downregulated genes after CC10 treatment of THP-1 cells. HBP1 is a well-described transcriptional repressor that modulates expression of genes involved in cell cycle progression. In a recent study, it was found that HBP1 is a direct target of miR-21 and confirmed that HBP1 modulates the inhibitory function of miR-21-ASO in hepatosteatosis and carcinogenesis simultaneously (23) . HBP1 is an endogenous inhibitor of the Wnt signaling pathway in both normal and cancer cells. The tumor suppressor role of HBP1 has been reported in some malignancies, such as oral cancer and glioma (35) . However, an association between HBP1 and Fgl2 has not been investigated yet. The current study clearly demonstrated that CC10 protects against MHV-3 induced FH via suppression of Fgl2 expression. Such effects might be mediated by HBP1. However, the functional status of HBP1 in the CC10 pathway requires further research, and such studies are conducting in our laboratory. In conclusion, we demonstrated that CC10 could limit the immunopathological damage in MHV-3-induced FH mice. Our results suggest that enhancing CC10 expression by an immunotherapeutic approach might be an effective treatment for FH. HY performed all the described experiments and wrote the manuscript. YL assisted with some experiments, analyzed experimental results, and edited the manuscript. HW analyzed experimental results. XW reviewed and edited the manuscript. JH, WY, DX, XL, GS, and QN provided experimental help and design.

How long after MHV-3 infection were liver samples taken?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

What is a critical feature of both?

Multimodal Imaging in an Unusual Cluster of Multiple Evanescent White Dot Syndrome https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5444036/ SHA: ee3cc22161595e877450737882a52950fd179672 Authors: Gal-Or, Orly; Priel, Ethan; Rosenblatt, Irit; Shulman, Shiri; Kramer, Michal Date: 2017-05-11 DOI: 10.1155/2017/7535320 License: cc-by Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To describe an unusual cluster of multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) encountered within a 3-month period. METHODS: This retrospective observation study is comprised of seven patients who presented with MEWDS in a 3-month period in central Israel. Data were collected from patients' medical records on clinical, multimodal imaging, and viral serology findings. RESULTS: Six women and one man of mean age 31.5 ± 7.2 years. Three reported a precedent viral infection. All had unilateral decreased vision. Funduscopy revealed foveal granularity. MAIN IMAGING FINDINGS: Hyperfluorescent spots on blue autofluorescence (BAF), hypofluorescent spots on indocyanine green angiography, dark lesions on infrared photos, and ellipsoid zone irregularities on spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Resolution of the spots on BAF correlated with anatomic (SD-OCT) and visual recovery. OCT angiography performed following the convalescence stage demonstrated intact retinal and choroidal flow. Serologic findings were inconclusive. CONCLUSION: We report a unique cluster of MEWDS patients presented in a short period of time. SD-OCT findings of ellipsoid zone disruption in combination with other multimodal imaging modalities are outlined meticulously. Recognizing these imaging features along with high index of clinical suspicion is important for the diagnosis of MEWDS. Serologic testing might be considered in future patients. Text: Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) was first described in 1984 as a rare, sudden onset of unilateral chorioretinopathy, with the predominant sign being multifocal yellow-white spots throughout the retina [1, 2] . The clinical spectrum of MEWDS has expanded over the years to include bilaterality and recurrences [3] or an atypical presentation involving the fovea without the white spots [4] . Symptoms include acute onset of decreased visual acuity unilaterally accompanied in most cases by photopsia and scotomata. A prodromal flu-like illness has been reported in up to 50% of cases [1] . One report described a patient with elevated levels of total serum IgG during the disease course and negative findings for IgM to herpes zoster, herpes simplex, mumps, and measles [5] . Although MEWDS is suspected to occur as a consequence of a viral-like infection in genetically susceptible individuals, its precise pathogenesis remains unknown. Recovery is gradual, over weeks to months, and the visual prognosis is very favorable [2] . Treatment is usually not required. The incidence of MEWDS is unknown. Only small case series are reported in the literature [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] . One of the largest described 34 affected patients reviewed over several years' period [1, 13, 14] . The aim of the present report was to describe an unusual cluster of seven cases of MEWDS encountered within a 3month period, with an emphasis on the clinical presentation and multimodal imaging findings. The cluster prompted us to seek a common infectious association. A retrospective observational study was conducted in seven patients who presented with MEWDS between July and September 2013 at two tertiary medical centers in central Israel. Data on background, clinical, and laboratory parameters were collected from the medical files. The study was approved by the institutional ethics review board. All patients underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination and multimodal imaging tests, including blue autofluorescence (BAF), fluorescein angiography (FA) and/ or indocyanine green angiography (ICGA), infrared (IR) photography, and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Images were acquired with the HRA-2 and the Spectralis HRA + OCT devices (Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) at the following wavelengths: BAFexcitation 488 nm, barrier cut-off 496 nm; IR-820 nm; ICGA-excitation 790 nm, emission 800 nm; and SD-OCTsuperluminescent diode light source 870 nm. The volume scan option was used to acquire the multiple SD-OCT scans (25-49 horizontal scans over a 6 mm region covering the area of pathology). Precise registration between findings seen on IR or BAF and SD-OCT was enabled by the dual-beam laser eye-tracking system, where one laser is used to image the retina and the other laser to perform the OCT scans. Accurate rescanning in areas of interest was ensured by the Spectralis follow-up function which automatically places subsequent scans on the same location as the previous ones. OCT angiography images were acquired using the RTVue XR Avanti with AngioVue (Optovue Inc., Fremont, California, USA), with an A-scan-rate of 70 000 scans per second, a light source of 840 nm, and a bandwidth of 45 nm. Macular cubes (3 × 3 mm) were acquired, each cube consisting of 304 clusters of 2 repeated B-scans containing 304 A-scans each. Split-spectrum amplitude decorrelation technology was employed to improve the signal-to-noise ratio by splitting the spectrum to generate multiple repeat OCT frames from 2 original repeat OCT frames [15] . Motion correction was performed using registration of 2 orthogonally captured imaging volumes. Automatic segmentation of the retinal layers was performed by the viewing software and was used to generate en face projection images after adjusting the level of the segmented layer on the B-scans. Serology testing was performed for viruses commonly present at the time of the patients' presentation, namely, immunoglobulin IgG and IgM for herpes simplex virus (HSV) I-II, varicella zoster virus (VZV), West Nile virus, coxsackievirus, echovirus (subgroup of enterovirus), and corona virus. Findings. There were one male and six female patients of mean age 31.5 ± 7.2 years (range 22-41 years). Table 1 summarizes the demographic data. Three patients reported a prodromal virus infection. All patients presented with acute onset of unilateral decreased vision. The best corrected visual acuity at presentation ranged from 6/9 to 6/30 in the affected eye. None of the patients had signs of anterior or vitreous inflammation in the affected eye. Funduscopic findings at presentation included foveal granularity in six patients; in four patients (patients 1, 4, 5, and 6), it was the sole pathologic retinal finding ( Figure 1 ); and in three patients (patients 2, 3, and 7), foveal granularity was associated with faint white retinal lesions (Figure 2 ), located mainly in the midperipheral retina extending to the periphery. Patient 6 had a swollen disc and mild signs of optic neuropathy (mild red desaturation, enlarged blind spot on visual field). Patient 6 underwent neurological evaluation due to initial presentation mimicking optic neuritis. Neurological evaluation including full neurological exam and neuroimaging excluded additional neurological deficit, before the diagnosis of MEWDS was established. The clinical findings are summarized in Table 2. 3.2. Multimodal Imaging Findings. Patients who underwent imaging less than 2 weeks from onset of symptoms had the most typical findings. BAF revealed hyperautofluorescent lesions in the macula between and along the arcades in four patients (patients 1, 3, 6, and 7). IR photos showed dark lesions in similar, though not identical, locations ( Figure 3 ). Patients 1 and 6, who underwent ICGA, had hypofluorescent lesions in numbers typically exceeding those detected by both clinical and other imaging modalities. B-scan SD-OCT through the fovea showed a disrupted inner segment ellipsoid zone band of varied severity in all 7 affected eyes. The ellipsoid zone hyper reflective band on SD-OCT anatomically correlates to photoreceptors' inner segment, ellipsoid section densely packed with mitochondria [16] . The transient disruption of the foveal ellipsoid zone on SD-OCT corresponded to the clinically apparent foveal granularity. In patient 5, who presented with sole retinal finding of foveal granularity and mild optic disc leakage on FA, the SD-OCT finding of ellipsoid zone disruption was the main sign for diagnosis MEWDS (Figure 1 ). Foveal hyperreflectivity found in 3 patients (patients 1, 4, and 7) was noted extending into the inner retinal layers (Figure 4 ). The lesions identified on the BAF, IR, and ICGA images corresponded to the areas of disruption of the ellipsoid zone, on the SD-OCT scans ( Figure 3 ). FA demonstrated nonspecific early punctate hyperfluorescent lesions, with slight staining during the early phase, in four patients (patients 2, 3, 6, and 7). These lesions did not correspond to the findings by either the clinical or other imaging modalities. No pathology was noted in the foveal area despite the presence of typical foveal granularity. Mild optic disc leakage was evident in four patients (patients 1, 4, 5, and 6). During the course of the disease, the hyperautofluorescent areas decreased in number and faded without leaving hypoautofluorescent abnormalities. The resolution of the BAF lesions corresponded to the anatomic recovery observed on SD-OCT. The foveal hyperreflectivity disappeared as well ( Figure 5 ). Figure 6 . Four patients (patients 1, 4, 6, and 7) underwent serological testing with negative results except for a common result of elevated titer of IgG to VZV. After 6 months of follow-up, the best corrected visual acuity ranged from 6/6 to 6/6.6 ( Table 2 ). Although MEDWS is traditionally considered as a rare syndrome [2] , we report an unusual cluster of seven patients who presented within a three-month period. All patients were otherwise healthy, and all presented with decreased vision in one eye. This cluster of cases could break to some measure the statistical improbability of the rarity of the disease. The atypical presentation in most of our patients could suggest that MEWDS is underdiagnosed. However, it may be in line with the speculation that sometimes atypical findings may simply reflect the moment in time in which the patients were examined and are not a true atypical presentation [4] . In its original description by Jampol et al. [2] , MEWDS cases were unilateral with fundus presentation including numerous white dots scattered in the posterior pole and beyond the arcades. During the disease course, granularity appearance of the macula develops in most cases and, when seen, determines the diagnosis. The number of white spots is very variable, and in fact, they may be absent. Given that characteristic white dots were not present in four patients (patients 1, 4, 5, and 6), we were guided by other fundus features, in particular foveal granularity, symptoms, multimodal imaging, and clinical course. While the presumed pathogenesis of MEWDS involves a viral infection, only few reports to date have described a search for the pathogen [5, [17] [18] [19] . The present cluster of cases provided us with a unique opportunity to seek a common viral denominator. Serological testing yielded only an elevated titer of IgG to VZV, most often an indicative of past VZV infection or vaccination; thus, we could not make any generalization regarding these findings. Multimodal imaging (BAF, SD-OCT, IR, FA, and ICGA) has proven to have high value in the challenging diagnosis of MEWDS. Most of the findings noted here have been described separately in earlier reports [7-9, 11, 12] . However, the present study offered two important advantages. We were able to examine all patients with simultaneously acquired imaging, and multiple correlations between the imaging findings and the clinical evaluation were possible. Moreover, the relatively large size of the cohort and the repeated scans allowed us to verify the imaging findings in this rare disease. We observed corresponding locations of the dark spots on IR images, the hyperautofluorescent spots on the BAF images, and the foci of outer retinal pathology on SD-OCT images. Small hyperreflective points, located in the ganglion cell layer, the ellipsoid zone, and the choriocapillaris, have been noted and described on "en face" EDI SD-OCT [20] . However, we noted a unique finding of foveal hyperreflectivity extending into the inner retinal layers. Our finding reinforces a recently described finding in the literature [14] which is believed to be pathognomonic to MEWDS. During the disease course, both the IR and the BAF findings faded in concurrence with the anatomical resolution of the disruption in the ellipsoid zone and the foveal hyperreflective lesion on SD-OCT. Thus, IR images may provide an easy, widely available imaging modality for follow-up of patients with MEWDS. Although IR autofluorescent changes were recently described in patients with MEWDS [21, 22] , this modality is not widely available, whereas IR imaging is routinely performed. Furthermore, on the basis of our findings with multimodal imaging, we suggest that the diagnosis of MEWDS can be established with the simultaneous use of such noninvasive techniques as BAF, IR, and SD-OCT. ICGA and FA may be reserved for secondary use, when findings are equivocal. OCTA is relatively new noninvasive imaging modality that demonstrates flow characteristics of the vascular network within the regional circulation to construct noninvasive images of the vascular network. En face images generated by OCTA also allow us to study the spatial relationships between vasculature and adjacent retinal/choroidal layers with greater precision than dye angiography, and OCTA findings demonstrated no flow impairment in the retinal and choroidal vasculature of the patients scanned after convalescence stage. We cannot overestimate the role of multimodal imaging in these patients, since not too often, the diagnosis is mistaken for optic neuritis, and clinical findings are very subtle. Limitations of the study were the variability in time from disease onset to serologic testing, making the IgM results hard to interpret. Therefore, we consider these tests inconclusive. Secondly, not all the patients had imaging with all modalities. In addition, future research is required using OCT angiography to study the nature of the dots in MEWDS patients and its correlation to other multimodal imaging modalities in the acute and convalescent stage. In conclusion, we present a large unique cluster of patients who presented with MEWDS over a short period Figure 6 : OCTA images following convalescence stage of patients 7's right eye (a-b) and 6's left eye (c-d). The green and red lines represent the x and y axes. Patient 7 after recurrent episodes. 3 × 3 mm OCT angiogram of the choriocapillaris (a1), superficial layer (a2), and deep layer (a3) centered at the macula without any flow compromise. Corresponding x-axis OCT structural B-scan (b1) simultaneously obtained during the same scan as the OCT angiogram with flow overlay at the cross-section demonstrated by the green line in (a1). SD-OCT (b2) demonstrating normal anatomy of the outer retina 6 months after the first acute episode. Patient 6, 3× 3 mm OCT angiogram of the choriocapillaris (c1), superficial layer (c2), and deep layer (c3) centered at the macula without any flow compromise. 3 × 3 mm en face structural OCT (d1) of the choriocapillaris centered at the macula as in c1. This image was simultaneously obtained during the same scan as the OCT angiogram in (c). En face structural OCT of the deep (d2) and outer retina (d3). of time. To the best of our knowledge, such a cluster was not previously reported in the literature nor encountered by us at different seasons. The diagnosis was supported by the presence of key features of foveal granularity and disruption of the ellipsoid zone on OCT and their correlation with the hyperautofluorescent lesions identified on BAF. Attention should also be addressed to the dark spots demonstrated on IR images, which may serve as an additional diagnostic clue provided by a noninvasive imaging modality. The disease course in our patients was typical for MEWDS, with almost complete recovery of visual acuity. The specific pathogenesis of MEWDS is unknown but is believed to be an inflammatory condition following a viral infection. We suggest continued serological testing in patients who meet the clinical criteria. The clinical signs of MEWDS are subtle, such that the diagnosis relies on a high index of suspicion. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

What precedes about half of the reported cases of MEWDS?

Architectural Insight into Inovirus-Associated Vectors (IAVs) and Development of IAV-Based Vaccines Inducing Humoral and Cellular Responses: Implications in HIV-1 Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4276942/ SHA: f6e6534cb423c1823ad38d7d5c0a98c303f2efdb Authors: Hassapis, Kyriakos A.; Stylianou, Dora C.; Kostrikis, Leondios G. Date: 2014-12-17 DOI: 10.3390/v6125047 License: cc-by Abstract: Inovirus-associated vectors (IAVs) are engineered, non-lytic, filamentous bacteriophages that are assembled primarily from thousands of copies of the major coat protein gp8 and just five copies of each of the four minor coat proteins gp3, gp6, gp7 and gp9. Inovirus display studies have shown that the architecture of inoviruses makes all coat proteins of the inoviral particle accessible to the outside. This particular feature of IAVs allows foreign antigenic peptides to be displayed on the outer surface of the virion fused to its coat proteins and for more than two decades has been exploited in many applications including antibody or peptide display libraries, drug design, and vaccine development against infectious and non-infectious diseases. As vaccine carriers, IAVs have been shown to elicit both a cellular and humoral response against various pathogens through the display of antibody epitopes on their coat proteins. Despite their high immunogenicity, the goal of developing an effective vaccine against HIV-1 has not yet materialized. One possible limitation of previous efforts was the use of broadly neutralizing antibodies, which exhibited autoreactivity properties. In the past five years, however, new, more potent broadly neutralizing antibodies that do not exhibit autoreactivity properties have been isolated from HIV-1 infected individuals, suggesting that vaccination strategies aimed at producing such broadly neutralizing antibodies may confer protection against infection. The utilization of these new, broadly neutralizing antibodies in combination with the architectural traits of IAVs have driven the current developments in the design of an inovirus-based vaccine against HIV-1. This article reviews the applications of IAVs in vaccine development, with particular emphasis on the design of inoviral-based vaccines against HIV-1. Text: Filamentous bacterial viruses are a group of thread-like viruses containing single-stranded DNA genomes. Collectively, they constitute the genus Inovirus in the family Inoviridae, the terms deriving from the Greek word Ίνα for filament [1] [2] [3] , and they are commonly called filamentous bacteriophages. There are over 50 different known individual species of filamentous viruses; the majority of them capable of infecting Gram-negative bacteria. The complex interaction between filamentous phages and their bacterial hosts is specified by receptor organelles that are usually encoded by transmissible plasmids [1, 4] . One of the most intriguing features of inoviruses is that they are assembled at the host membrane, where the major capsid protein subunits replace the single-stranded DNA binding protein, and progeny virions are continuously extruded into the medium without killing the infected cell, giving rise to titers of up to 10 13 virions per milliliter of liquid culture [5, 6] . The high virus production is associated only with a mild retardation of the host's growth, which gives rise to the formation of opaque plaques on bacterial lawns. In this sense, filamentous viruses bear a resemblance to symbiotic non-pathogenic animal viruses rather than phages, the term coming from the Greek word φάγος for destroyer. Inovirus virions are flexible and slender cylindrical filaments [2, 3] less than 10 nm in diameter and in the order of 1000 nm in length (see details in Figure 1 ). Each virion has several thousand identical major capsid or coat protein subunits packaging a circular single-stranded DNA molecule. Each virion also has a few specific minor proteins at each end, those at one end (proximal end) for attachment during infection, and those at the other end (distal end) for nucleation and initiation of the assembly process at the host's membrane. The number of species of inovirus isolated and characterized in different parts of the world is rather large [1] . Among E. coli inoviruses, the best-studied and most-exploited is Ff, a group of closely related viruses (fd, f1 and M13) (for review see [4, 6] ) that infect male (F + ) strains of E. coli. All Ff have almost identical DNA and protein sequences, gene organization, and most other structural parameters [7] [8] [9] . Fd, M13 and f1 differ in their genomes at only about 100 positions out of 6408 nucleotides for f1 and fd or 6407 nucleotides for M13. The genetics and life cycle of three viruses f1, fd and M13 have been studied extensively and we know a great deal about them. The Ff genome contains ten tightly arranged genes and a non-coding intergenic region, which contains the packaging signal [10] [11] [12] , the (+) and (−) origins of DNA replication, and the major rho-dependent transcriptional terminator (for recent review see [4] ). Five of the ten viral genes encode proteins found in the virion (g3, g6, g8, g7 and g9). Genes 3 and 6 are found on the proximal end of the virion and are essential for infectivity and stabilization, whereas, gene 7 and gene 9 proteins, gp7 and gp9, respectively, are located at the distal end of the virion and are responsible for the initiation assembly [13] [14] [15] . In the end-to-end model illustrated in Figure 1 , both the proximal (gp7 and gp9) and distal (gp3 and gp6) minor coat protein subunits maintain the fivefold axial symmetry of the major coat protein gp8 subunits along the virion. The life cycle of Ff filamentous viruses starts with the adsorption of the virus to the tip of the F + specific pilus of E. coli. Attachment takes place by means of an adsorption structure composed of five copies of gp3, located at the proximal end of the virion (see Figure 1 ), mainly through sequential binding of the gp3 N2 domain with the tip of the F pilus and the N1 domain with the periplasmic domain III of TolA (for recent review see reference 4). After adsorption, the virus is drawn to the surface of the cell where the major coat protein gp8 subunits become associated with the inner membrane of the cell [16] [17] [18] and the circular single-stranded DNA (cssDNA) is released into the cytoplasm. Inside the cytoplasm, the cssDNA is converted into a parental double-stranded replicative form (RF). Ff inoviruses replicate their genome by a rolling-circle mechanism. Consecutive transcription from the RF DNA, and translation as well an asymmetric single strand DNA synthesis lead to an intracellular pool of viral precursor complexes, which contain viral single-stranded DNA molecules bound with gp5 protein subunits, except a small hairpin loop that serves as the packaging signal for virion assembly [10] [11] [12] . The major coat protein gp8 subunits are synthesized with a signal peptide sequence that facilitates their transport to and insertion into the bacterial membrane, where they are cleaved by signal peptidase. After cleavage, the mature coat protein is left spanning the membrane with its C terminus in the cytoplasm and the N terminus outside the cytoplasm in the periplasm [19] [20] [21] . The assembly of filamentous viruses takes place at the membrane where the gp5 subunits are replaced by gp8 subunits. The first step of the assembly sequence is the binding of the packaging signal, a site of about 30 nucleotides that forms a hairpin loop, with presumably five subunits of each of the minor coat proteins gp7 and gp9 [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] . Virus assembly proceeds as single-stranded DNA passes through the membrane and more mature coat protein gp8 subunits are added until the entire DNA molecule is packaged. At the distal end of the virion, five copies of each of gp6 and gp3 are added and the complete virion is released into the medium [23, 27] . The assembly of inoviruses on the bacterial inner membrane is a harmonized sequential process that involves a variety of interactions between viral-encoded proteins (gp1, gp4 and gp11) and host-encoded proteins, without killing the host bacterium (reviewed by [4] ). The structure of the Ff virus has been extensively studied by a number of laboratories in the last five decades. However, despite all of the efforts, the structure has not been completely determined and some critical questions remain unanswered. The major difficulty is that these viruses cannot be crystallized. They can be oriented in fibers suitable for X-ray fiber diffraction studies, but these are not crystals. Interpretations of the fiber diffraction patterns together with a number of physicochemical measurements, have shown that the major coat protein gp8 subunits have a five-start helical symmetry (5-fold rotation axis) and are referred to as Class I [28] [29] [30] strictly based on the fundamental symmetry of the protein subunits helices as determined by fiber diffraction (reviewed by [2] ). On the other hand, the structure of the packaged ssDNA molecule in the virion, including its helical symmetry and the interactions with the protein sheath, is one of the least understood aspects. The structure of the DNA inside these viruses cannot be determined by conventional X-ray fiber diffraction techniques, partly because of the low DNA content in the virions. Theoretical studies have demonstrated that the single-stranded DNA molecule is uniquely packaged inside the Ff virion by predominant electrostatic interactions [3, 31] . A 3D scale schematic model of an end-to-end Ff (fd) inoviral virion. The model is based on published physical data including the determined helical parameters of the major coat protein gp8 and the X-ray structure of the N1-N2 domains of the minor coat protein gp3. The model shows the relative location of the circular single-stranded DNA (cssDNA) genome (6408 nucleotides long, illustrated as blue ribbons), some structural details of the outer virion capsid (major coat protein pg8) and the four minor coat proteins (gp6, gp3, gp7 and gp9) present at the ends of the virion. On top, a digital scanning transmission electron micrograph (STEM) of unstained fd virus, prepared by the wet-film technique according to previously established procedures of the Brookhaven STEM facility [32] [33] [34] . The ends of one complete virion are designated by arrows. The data were collected in collaboration with L.A. Day and J. S. Wall at the Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton New York. Under these STEM conditions fd virions are about 8800 Å long and about 65 Å in diameter [3] . In the middle, a proposed end-to-end scale 3D diagram of fd virion is presented. The entire fd virion is composed of about 2700 subunits of gp8 with the exception of its two ends. Architectural details of an axial slab 176 Å long (about 1/50 of the virion length) consisting entirely of subunits of major coat protein gp8. The structure of the 50-amino-acid-long and extended α-helical gp8, shown below in both surface and ribbon images, is presented in the virion model as a cylindrical stack of 25 gray disks about 70 Å long and 10 Å in diameter. The images of gp8 were derived from coordinates of RCSB PDB database accession number 2cOW [35] using PyMOL [36] . The gp8 subunits are arranged with a helical symmetry that includes a two-fold screw axis and a five-fold rotation axis, consisting of two pentamers of pg8 [28] [29] [30] 35] . The two pentamers are architecturally related to each other by a translation of about 16 Å along the virion axis and a rotation of 36° about the axis [28] . The proximal end of the virion, shown on the left, is composed of five copies of each of the minor coat proteins gp6 and gp3 (for a recent review see [4] ). The proximal end is modeled based on partial information known about the structures of gp6 and gp3. Specifically, the N-terminal portion of gp6 was modeled following the helical parameters of gp8, based on protein sequence homology between the two [23] [24] [25] . Five copies of gp3 subunits were modeled based on structural information of the N1-N2 domains. The images of the N1-N2 domains of gp3 are shown below and were derived from coordinates of RCSB PDB database accession number 1g3p [36] using PyMOL. The domain organization of gp3 is also shown. The distal end of the virion (right) consists of five copies of each minor coat proteins gp7 and gp9, modeled following the helical parameters of gp8 according to a previously published model [25] . The easy genetic manipulation of inoviruses and the possibility of inserting random oligonucleotides into their genome set the foundation for inovirus display (phage display) technology [37, 38] . Expression of these genetically modified inoviruses results in the presentation of oligopeptides as fusion proteins on the surface of the virion and are herein termed IAVs for inovirus-associated vectors. IAVs can be modified to express an oligopeptide on either all or on some copies of a particular capsid protein. One possibility is to insert an oligonucleotide sequence of interest in the viral genome to create a fusion with capsid protein gp3, gp7, gp8 or gp9, so that the oligopeptide is displayed on every copy of the capsid protein. Alternatively, a phagemid vector can be used, which carries an extra copy of a capsid protein to which the oligonucleotide is fused. Coinfection of bacterial hosts with the phagemid vector and a replication deficient helper phage, that carries the wild type capsid protein, would result in mosaic inovirus particles. That is, they will contain copies of both the wild type coat protein and the recombinant protein that contains the oligopeptide of interest [39] . Non-mosaic and mosaic IAVs that display a peptide on gp3 or gp8 have been recently reviewed [4] while IAVs that display a peptide on gp7 or gp9 have been reviewed elsewhere [40] [41] [42] . In contrast to the other four-capsid proteins, gp6 capsid protein has only been utilized for the production of mosaic virions [43] [44] [45] . Figure 2 illustrates the display of an antigen on each of the five capsid proteins of an IAV as indicated in published literature. It also introduces a new terminology to denote the gene to which the oligopeptides are fused to and whether the virion is a mosaic. To display many copies of an oligopeptide on an IAV, the ideal capsid protein to utilize is gp8. The resulting non-mosaic IAV can display a peptide on each of the approximately 2700 copies of gp8 on its capsid surface. The tradeoff, however, is a significant limitation in the size of the peptide: only peptides up to 6 amino acids may be displayed without distorting the assembly of the virus (see Figures 2 and 3 ). This size restriction of the displayed peptide may be overcome by generating a mosaic IAV that displays the foreign peptide in only a minority of gp8 on the viral surface [38] . With regards to the display of peptides on gp3, it is possible through mosaic IAVs to present even a whole protein on the viral surface [46] . Although in such a case the protein is expected to be present in up to five copies per virion, studies show that virions carry none, or just one copy of the protein on their surface [39] . Random Peptide Libraries (RPL) is one common application of IAVs, where random oligopeptides are displayed on different clones of an inovirus particle. The vast diversity of an RPL depends on the size of the oligopeptide where the complexity of an RPL increases exponentially as the size of the oligopeptide increases. RPLs can subsequently be used in many applications including the identification of peptide ligands by receptors, the mapping of substrate sites for enzymes, and the creation of antibody peptide libraries. These applications are reviewed elsewhere [38, 46, 47] . Inovirus display technology has also been used for epitope mapping and vaccine design purposes. RPLs can be used to characterize the epitope of an antibody of interest through biopanning with a monoclonal antibody of interest, which can result in the isolation of mimotopes; these are oligopeptides that mimic the native antibody epitope. The selected recombinant inoviruses that carry mimotopes can then be isolated in order to determine the DNA and amino acid sequence of the displayed oligopeptides. DNA sequencing of such inserts as well as structure prediction analysis can potentially identify the previously unknown target of an antibody. Besides antibody characterization, inoculation of recombinant inoviruses isolated through this approach can potentially be used as vaccine carriers. For example, if a neutralizing antibody against a pathogen is used to screen an RPL, the selected peptides (fused to inoviruses) would mimic the original antibody epitope. Vaccination of animals with these inoviruses could ultimately induce the production of similar antibodies by the vaccinated individual, offering protection from infection against the pathogen. Inovirus display technology has been successfully applied in the development of vaccines against various pathogens (Tables 1 and 2 ). The potential for inovirus display technology to facilitate the mapping of antibody epitopes is of great importance, especially in the case of HIV-1. Epitopes of broadly neutralizing monoclonal anti-HIV-1 antibodies could be rare, vulnerable spots on the surface of a frequently mutating virus such as HIV-1 and therefore, their identification and further study could lead to new drug therapies or vaccine targets. This review focuses particularly on the applications of inovirus display technology that utilizes capsid proteins gp3 and gp8, as those have been used in vaccine development. Schematic representations of antigen display on the surface of Ff inovirus-associated vectors (IAVs). Foreign antigens are shown as red spheres. The designation on the left denotes the inoviral gene, which can be genetically modified to express an antigen on the outer architecture of the virion. IAVs that contain both the wild type and antigen display capsid proteins are designated by "m" which indicates that the virion is a mosaic. Each Ff virion contains about 2700 copies of major capsid protein gp8, and five copies of each of the minor capsid proteins, gp3, gp6, gp7 and gp9. inovirus-associated vector (bottom) showing the major coat protein gp8 subunits arranged with a combined five-fold rotation axis and an approximate two-fold screw axis [28] . Right, the corresponding surface lattices, identical to those previously published [30] . The lattice diagrams show the relative position of each gp8 subunit on the outer virion surface. The five gp8 subunits of each of the two interlocking pentamers constituting the helical symmetry of the virion are indicated by blue and green dots respectively. The relative virion surface area (about 1400 Å 2 ) associated with each gp8 subunit is marked in yellow. The virion perimetrical (azimuthial) distance is calculated based on a virion diameter of about 65 Å. The displayed antigens, represented by red spheres, are arranged on the surface of the Ff.g8 inovirus-associated vector according to helical symmetry of the virion outer architecture (bottom). IAVs are effective vaccine carriers and, as shown in Tables 1 and 2 , they have been used successfully in numerous vaccine development studies. They have been utilized in the development of vaccines against a wide variety of viral, protozoan and worm parasites and also against non-infectious diseases like Alzheimer and various types of cancer. All these attempts can be divided in two main sub-categories. The first sub-category, inovirus display technology was used to screen RPLs with monoclonal antibodies and then to select the immunogenic peptides of interest. The selected peptide was used as a vaccine in its soluble form or in conjugation with carrier proteins [55,66,70,81-84, 86-88,90-92,98] . In the second sub-category, similar to the first sub-category, inovirus display technology has been used for epitope mapping and isolation, but in this case, inoviruses were also used as the vaccine carriers for the immunogenic peptides [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] 56, 57, [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [67] [68] [69] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] . In contrast to IAVs, soluble peptides have the disadvantage of being less stable than the same peptides fused to inoviral particles. Soluble peptides have a flexible 3D structure and thus, do not always retain the 3D structure of the desirable epitope. As a result, soluble peptides, unlike inovirus-bound peptides, are less capable of inducing the production of the desirable antibodies [99] . Additionally, the inoviral vectors displaying peptides are highly immunogenic. Their high immunogenicity is reinforced by the ability of inoviruses to display multiple copies of peptides on their surface. Additionally, inoviruses are known for their structural simplicity, which allows the immune system to focus selectively on the displayed peptides and not on the viral carrier [100] . Furthermore, since inoviruses can replicate in E. coli cultures, the cost of vaccine production is low. In summary, IAVs can be used as efficient and cost effective vaccine carriers. A large number of research studies have focused on the application of inovirus-based vaccines against infectious diseases. A common approach in many of these efforts was to vaccinate animals with inoviruses and to then challenge them with specific pathogens, in order to assess the level of protection against the pathogens. Three of these studies focused on immunization against viral parasites. In 1997, Bastien et al. fused a 15-mer linear epitope of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) glycoprotein G on inovirus gp3 and used the recombinant inovirus to vaccinate mice [69] . This resulted in a specific humoral response, with the vaccinated animals having complete protection from challenge with the RSV virus [69] . In 2000, Grabowska et al. used monoclonal antibodies against Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 (HSV-2) glycoprotein G2 to screen 15-mer RPLs [65] . The selected recombinant inoviruses were used to vaccinate mice, resulting in a specific humoral response. A high survival rate of vaccinated mice after challenge with a lethal dose of the virus was observed, and the level of protection was proportional to the dose of the inoviral vaccine [65] . Additionally, in 2000, Yu et al. used monoclonal antibodies against the surface glycoprotein of Neurotropic Murine Coronavirus to screen various RPLs [67] . A selected clone displaying a 13-mer peptide induced a humoral immune response but no cellular response in mice. Even so, after lethal virus challenge, three out of six mice survived. [67] . Besides viral infections, inoviral vaccine research has also been applied for systemic candidiasis, a fungal infection caused by Candida albicans. In two separate studies, a specific six amino acid peptide epitope of the fungal heat shock protein 90 was displayed as a fusion with the inoviral coat protein gp8 [73, 74] . After infection with the parasite, mice immunized with the recombinant inoviruses had fewer colony forming units of Candida albicans in the kidney and a longer lifespan [73] . The use of inovirus as a vaccine carrier was particularly successful against Taenia solium, a parasitic worm that uses pigs as intermediate hosts and causes neurocysticercosis, a parasitic disease of the central nervous system, in humans [79] . In 2004, Manoutsarian et al. fused four antigenic peptides (GK1, KETc1, KETc7, KETc12) to inoviruses and the cocktail of recombinant inoviruses was used to vaccinate pigs; as a result, a specific cellular response was induced. Vaccination of pigs protected them against challenge with the pathogen: 1/3 of pigs were totally protected and 2/3 had reduced number of cysticerci [79] . Based on these results, large-scale vaccination of 1047 rural pigs in 16 villages of central Mexico was conducted in 2008. The immunization was successful since the vaccine conferred significant protection against the parasite. Furthermore, this inovirus-based vaccine was more economical compared with to another vaccine made of synthetic peptides. The study was particularly important, not only due to the large scale vaccination attempt with inoviruses, but also due to its effectiveness in significantly reducing the number of cysticerci in the vaccinated animals [101] . Efforts were also made to develop vaccines against the worm Schistosoma japonicum. In 2004, Tang et al. screened a 12-mer RPL with polyclonal serum from infected mice [76] . The selected recombinant inoviruses induced a specific humoral response, which conferred partial protection from parasite challenge in the vaccinated mice [76] . Following this study, in 2006, Wang et al. used the monoclonal antibody SSj14, which targets the parasite to screen a 12-mer RPL [77] . The recombinant inoviruses induced both humoral and cellular responses that significantly protected the vaccinated mice against the worm infection [77] . Additionally, in 2006, Wu et al. used polyclonal serum from infected rabbits to screen a 12-mer RPL [78] . A humoral response was induced in the vaccinated mice, which conferred partial protection from the parasite [78] . In 2008, Villa-Mancera et al., produced a vaccine against Fasciola hepatica, by screening a previously constructed 12-mer inovirus RLP with an anti-cathepsin L monoclonal antibody [75] . Although immunization of sheep with the selected recombinant inoviruses induced a weak, specific humoral response after challenge with the parasite, the vaccinated animals had a remarkable reduction in worm burden compared to controls [75] . An inovirus-based vaccine has been constructed against the parasitic worm Trichinella spiralis. In this case, Gu et al. used a monoclonal antibody against rTs87 antigen to screen a 12-mer RPL [80] . As a result, a humoral response was induced and the vaccinated mice gained partial protection after challenge against the parasite [80] . In summary, the results of the above studies show that the construction of an efficient inovirus-based vaccine that confers protection to the vaccinated animals against the infectious pathogen is achievable through the induction of humoral or cellular immune response or both. As previously mentioned, inovirus display technology has also been used for the design of vaccines against non-infectious diseases and in some cases, the capability of the vaccine to limit the progression of the disease was evaluated. In 2005, Fang et al. displayed an epitope of the Melanoma Antigen A1 (MAGE A1) in the surface of inovirus fused on gp8 [85] . This resulted in an induction of cellular immune response against the melanoma tumor and in the significant inhibition of tumor growth in the vaccinated mice. In addition, there was an important increase in the survival rate of vaccinated animals [85] . Similar results were obtained in 2002 by Wu et al. in an effort to design a vaccine against murine mastocytoma P815 [89] . An epitope of the P1A tumor antigen was fused to the inoviral surface and the vaccinated mice gained significant protection against tumor growth. Moreover, there was a significant increase in survival rate due to an anti-tumor cellular response that was induced [89] . Some important efforts have also been made for the design of an inovirus-based vaccine against Alzheimer's disease. The main target of these vaccines was the induction of antibodies against β-amyloid plaques. In these studies, the antigenic epitope that was displayed in the inoviral surface was the epitope EGFR, which consists of the four amino acids E, G, F and R and it is part of the β-amyloid peptide. In mice immunized with recombinant inoviruses, the researchers observed a reduction in β-amyloid plaque burden and a specific humoral response [93] [94] [95] [96] . Collectively, these studies show that it is possible to protect vaccinated animals against disease progression, thus alluding to the promising use of such vaccines against non-infectious diseases in humans. In summary, the utilization of inoviral vectors for vaccine development against infectious and non-infectious non-HIV-1 diseases has produced significant and promising results. First, in the majority of cases, the vaccine was successful since it induced specific humoral or cellular response, or both. Furthermore, in many cases, there was an attempt to evaluate the efficacy of the vaccine after challenge against the pathogen in vaccinated animals. In all cases, the vaccine could provide partial, significant or even complete protection against the pathogen. This established the effectiveness of the use of inoviruses as vaccine vectors. Our knowledge of HIV-1 neutralization epitopes initiated from the isolation of several neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (2F5, 4E10, b12 and 2G12) that were described between 1993 and 1994 [102] [103] [104] . Thus far, neutralizing monoclonal antibodies have been found to target four major epitopes on the HIV-1 envelope gp41 and gp120 glycoproteins [105] [106] [107] . These monoclonal antibodies target the MPER epitope of gp41 (monoclonal antibodies 2F5, 4E10, M66.6, CAP206-CH12 and 10e8) [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] ; the V1V2-glycan of gp120 (PG9, PG16, CH01-04 and PGT 141-145) [116] [117] [118] [119] ; the glycan dependent site of the gp120 V3 loop (PGT121-123, PGT125-131 and PGT135-137) [119] ; and the CD4-binding site (b12, HJ16, CH103-106, VRC01-03, VRC-PG04, VRC-PG04b, VRC-CH30-34, 3BNC117, 3BNC60, NIH45-46, 12A12, 12A21, 8ANC131, 8ANC134, INC9 and IB2530 [102, 114, [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] . Monoclonal antibody 2G12 targets the surface glycans on the outer domain of gp120 that is distinct from the four major epitope target sites described above [102, 104, 129] . The inovirus display technology has also been applied in vaccination strategies against HIV-1 [130] . However, unlike the successful development of vaccines against non-HIV-1 parasites, these efforts failed. In all published studies (see Table 1 ), the HIV-1 inovirus-display vaccines were made utilizing the broadly neutralizing antibodies 2F5, 2G12 and b12 [50, 52, 54, 55, 59, 62] . The first study for the construction of a vaccine against HIV-1 using inovirus display technology was performed in 1993 by Keller et al., using the 447-52D monoclonal antibody to screen a 15-mer RPL [50] . Vaccination of selected recombinant inoviruses in rabbits resulted in the induction of type-specific neutralizing antibodies [50] . A few years later, in 2001, Zwick et al. used b12 monoclonal antibody to screen a variety of linear and constrained RPLs [52] . However, the vaccination in mice and rabbits with the selected recombinant inoviruses did not result in the production of b12-like antibodies at detectable levels [52] . The same antibody was used in 2005 by Dorgham et al. , in order to screen a 15-mer RPL, and the selected mimotopes were fused to the capsid of inoviruses which were then used to vaccinate mice [54] . The induced antibodies could bind gp160 but they did not have neutralizing potency [54] . In another study in 2007, Wilkinson et al. screened a 9-mer and a constrained 10-mer library with antibody 5145A [55] . This was the only case in which the selected mimotopes were fused in to small heat shock protein (HSP) of the archeaon Methanococcus jannaschii as a carrier protein. Following vaccination of HSP-mimotopes in rabbits, anti-gp120 antibodies without neutralizing potency were produced [55] . The 2G12 antibody was used for the first time in 2008 by Menendez et al. for the screening of a variety of linear and constrained RPLs [59] . Nevertheless, vaccination of selected inoviruses in rabbits induced the production of antibodies that could not bind to gp120 [59] . More recently, in 2011, Rodriguez et al. used the 2F5 antibody to screen a 12-mer and a constrained 7-mer RPL [62] . Vaccination in mice and rabbits led to the production of non-neutralizing antibodies [62] . In most of these studies, the use of inoviral vectors resulted in the induction of a specific humoral response. However, the sera of the vaccinated animals did not have broadly neutralizing ability. Besides monoclonal antibodies, polyclonal sera from HIV-1-infected patients were also used for the screening RPLs (Table 1) [51, 53, [56] [57] [58] 63] . This approach carries a degree of uncertainty, since it is based on the premise that the polyclonal sera will contain at least one broadly neutralizing monoclonal anti-HIV-1 antibody, meaning that a new neutralizing epitope against it can be isolated from the RPL. It is suggested that long-term non-progressors (HIV-1-infected patients who remain asymptomatic for a long time) are more likely to produce neutralizing antibodies in comparison to AIDS patients, and it is suggested that these neutralizing antibodies in the serum of long-term non-progressors may contribute to the control of viral load [131] [132] [133] . However, this hypothesis has been questioned [134] . Polyclonal serum for the screening of RPLs was used for the first time in 1999 by Scala et al., who screened both linear and constrained 9-mer RPLs [51] . After that, vaccination of selected inoviruses in mice led to the production of neutralizing antibodies. A few years later, in 2007, Rodriguez et al. used polyclonal serum to screen a 7-mer, a 12-mer and a constrained 7-mer RPL [56] . Vaccination in mice induced the production of antibodies that could bind to gp41, but no information was provided about their neutralization potency [56] . Additionally, in 2007, Humbert et al. used polyclonal serum to screen a 7-mer, a 12-mer and a constrained 7-mer RPL [57] . Vaccination of selected recombinant inoviruses in mice induced the production of neutralizing antibodies [57] . The screening of the same RPLs using polyclonal serum from a monkey infected with a Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (SHIV) was performed by the same group. In this study, vaccination in mice was performed using the prime-boost strategy: DNA vaccine as prime (encoding gp160) and a cocktail of recombinant inoviruses as boost. The result was the induction of neutralizing antibodies [58] . In 2013, Gazarian et al. screened a linear 12-mer and constrained 7-mer RPLs using sera from HIV-infected individuals [63] . Vaccination in rabbits resulted in the production of antibodies that bind gp160 [63] . In 2001, non-human primates were used by Chen et al., as an animal model for vaccination with recombinant inoviruses [53] . This group performed screening of a 9-mer and a constrained 9-mer RPL with polyclonal serum isolated from an infected donor. After that, the vaccination of selected inoviruses was performed in rhesus macaques. As a result, sera from the vaccinated macaques exhibited neutralizing activity. Furthermore, the vaccinated macaques were not protected from infection, but four out of five animals were able to control the viral load after challenge against the pathogenic SHIV89.6PD virus. This was a very important result, which underlines the potential of the method. Additionally, no specific CTL response was detected, implying that the control of viral load was an exclusive result of humoral response [53] . Since the first attempt to induce the production of anti-HIV-1 neutralizing antibodies using inovirus-based vaccines, all efforts to date have not led to the production of broadly neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated animals. This failure could be to a certain extent explained by the usage of the "old generation" monoclonal antibodies (2F5, 2G12 and b12) which were shown to demonstrate autoreactivity properties in vitro studies [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] . In 2010, Verkoczy et al. demonstarted in an in vivo study that Pre-B cells expressing 2F5-like antibodies were unable to maturate in mice, suggesting a triggering of immunological tolerance due to the autoreactive properties of the 2F5-like antibody [140] . Collectively, these studies implied that the screening RPLs using 2F5, 2G12 and b12 could result in inoviral-based vaccines that could trigger immunological tolerance in vaccinated animals. It is important to note, however, that the lack of autoreactivity properties for several of the "next generation" broadly neutralizing antibodies (10e8, PG9, PG16, VRC01-03, VRC-PG04, VRC-PG04b, and VRC-CH30-34) could solve the autoreactivity problems encountered by 2F5, 2G12, and b12. Despite the fact that the recent isolation of new broadly neutralizing antibodies against HIV-1 has focused the attention of HIV-1 vaccine development on the induction of a humoral anti-HIV-1 response, recent results underline the importance of a cellular anti-HIV-1 response as well [141, 142] . The experimental results concerning inovirus-based vaccines in non-HIV-1 diseases prove that inoviruses can also induce a strong specific cellular response (Tables 1 and 2); this property makes them great candidates as vectors for HIV-1 vaccine design. The ability of inoviruses to induce a cellular immune response was first demonstrated in 2000 by DeBerardinis et al. [143] . In this work, recombinant inoviruses carrying the RT2 epitope and the pep23 epitope of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase in gp8 could induce specific cellular responses in human cell lines in vitro and in mice in vivo against the RT2 peptide. It is interesting that without the pep23 epitope, the cellular response was undetectable. This indicates that the pep23 is a CTL epitope that is necessary for cellular response, possibly because it enables internalization of the recombinant inovirus into the APCs [143] . Therefore, a question arises of whether an epitope fused to the surface of the inovirus can induce a cellular or a humoral response or both. It is suggested that the type of immune response caused by an epitope fused on the surface of the inovirus is dependent on the length and sequence of the peptide [143] . In 2003, Gaubin et al. demonstrated that FITC-labeled fd virions can be internalized in human EBV-B cell lines and the fd virions are successively degraded and targeted both to MHC class I and class II antigen-processing pathways [144] . This was confirmed after endocellular localization of the labeled virions with confocal microscopy. This experiment showed that the inoviruses could be internalized in APCs even without carrying a CTL epitope, but in very low rate. For in vivo experiments however, it is possible that the requirement of a CTL epitope is critical for the induction of a cellular response [144] . In 2011, Sartorius et al. showed that a hybrid fd virion with the anti-DEC-205 scFv antibody fragment fused on gp3 and the OVA257-264 antigenic epitope fused on gp8 can be internalized in human dendritic cells through a specific interaction between the anti-DEC205 scFv and the DEC-205 receptor [145] . In addition, inoculation of mice with the hybrid virions induced a specific cellular response against the OVA257-264 epitope [145] . This important characteristic of inoviral vectors to induce a cellular response was reported in only two studies aimed at developing a HIV-1 inoviral vaccine, possibly due to the complexity of detecting a cellular response and also because it is a labor intensive and time-consuming process. In 2001, Chen et al. attempted to detect a cellular response, but such a response was not induced in that experiment [53] . A more recent research study related to HIV-1, which clearly demonstrates the ability of inoviruses to induce strong cellular response, was performed in 2009 by Pedroza-Roldan et al. [60] . In this effort, an immunodominant CTL epitope of the V3 loop of gp120 (residues 311-320) was expressed as fusion to gp8 of an M13 inovirus. A random peptide library was created by inserting mutations in certain positions of this epitope. A cocktail of inoviruses carrying the V3 loop epitope or variations of this epitope were used for the vaccination of mice and, as a result, a CTL response was induced. The most important result of this study was that the immunization induced long-lasting memory T-cell responses, which were detected seven months after a single immunization [60] . The same vaccination also induced a strong humoral response, since the sera of vaccinated mice could neutralize five out of ten pseudoviruses from a panel [61] . All the above experiments clearly show that the inoviruses are capable of inducing a specific cellular immune response: the ability of the inoviral vectors to induce both arms of adaptive immunity is unique and it could prove to be valuable in the development of a successful HIV-1 vaccine. In the general field of HIV-1 vaccine design, all studies for the production of anti-HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies through vaccination with either soluble peptides or viral vectors have been unsuccessful. For this reason, some efforts have been directed to the induction of cellular immune response [146, 147] . In recent years, in HIV-1 vaccine phase I and phase II clinical trials, adenoviral vectors have been used in order induce a cellular immune response in HIV-1 vaccinated individuals [148] [149] [150] [151] . However, there are concerns about the safety of these viruses. In 2007, the large-scale phase IIB Merck trial was abruptly terminated because there was evidence that the individuals vaccinated with adenovirus rAd5 vector (expressing gag, pol and nef) became more vulnerable to HIV-1 infection in comparison to controls. It was suggested that the group with the increased risk of being infected with HIV-1 consisted of individuals who were Ad5 seropositive [152] . Other eukaryotic viruses that infect other species and do not replicate in human cells were also tested as candidates HIV vaccine carriers and in theory are safer. For example, the canarypox vector was used in the RV144 phase III clinical trial, the only clinical trial that had positive results to date, offering partial protection (31%) to vaccinated individuals in comparison with control [152, 153] . Apart from safety reasons, the use of adenovirus-based vectors has not been protective. The recent HVTV 505 phase IIB trial that used adenovirus rAd5 as a boost and DNA as prime for vaccination of 2504 human volunteers was abandoned as futile [150] . Recently, a rhesus macaque cytomegalovirus (RhCMV) vector successfully induced a persisting CTL response in rhesus macaques that strongly protected the vaccinated animals from challenge against the pathogenic SIVmac239 strain. Importantly, this study, 50% of the vaccinated animals reduced the viral load to undetectable levels [141, 142] . However, the design of a human version of this CMV vector could impose safety risks, since the human CMV is a persistent and pathogenic human virus [146] . Therefore, various types of eukaryotic viral vectors are currently under investigation. These are reviewed elsewhere [154, 155] . However, the use of a eukaryotic virus is accompanied by serious safety concerns. As an alternative, the use of prokaryotic viruses such as inoviruses, may be utilized which have a decisively lower safety risk to humans. Even if inoviruses could infect a eukaryotic cell, the assembly of the new prokaryotic virions cannot take place without the specific conditions that exist in the inter-membrane area of the E. coli and without the presence of the specific E. coli enzyme leader peptidase that does not exist in human cells [156, 157] . Furthermore, there was a phase I case study in 2006 where fd inoviruses were intravenously infused in humans (for purposes unrelated to vaccination), causing no side effects or even allergic reactions in any of the eight volunteers. To our knowledge, this is the only case where inoviruses were infused in humans [158] . Therefore, in contrast to other viral vectors, the use of inoviruses does not impose a major safety risk to humans. This characteristic of inoviral vectors along with their capability to trigger both cellular and humoral immune responses makes them an attractive option as vaccine vectors. During the last two decades, inoviral vectors have been used in the development of vaccines against various infectious parasites and against non-infectious diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's with promising results. While the applications of inovirus display technology in vaccine design against non-HIV-1 diseases have been mostly successful, the design of a HIV-1 vaccine development has so far been disappointing. A major obstacle has been the use of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies plagued with autoreactivity properties. Screening of RPLs with these antibodies resulted in the isolation of peptides that, as vaccine antigens, were unsuccessful in inducing a specific humoral response that would produce neutralizing antibodies. The recent isolation of antibodies such as VRC01 and 10E8 with more neutralizing breadth and potency without autoreactivity properties than the previously utilized antibodies may overcome this obstacle [115, 124] . Particularly, the induction of VRC01-like and 10E8-like antibodies could be a feasible target, since these antibodies also seem to be produced from a significant percentage of the HIV-1-infected population [115, 126, 127] . While humoral responses have been well documented, cellular responses have not been assessed in most studies for the design of a HIV-1 vaccine using inoviruses. The only study in which a cellular anti-HIV-1 response was detected also reported a successful induction of a long-lasting memory CTL response seven months after a single vaccination in mice with inoviral particles [60] , demonstrating that the induction of cellular immunity against HIV-1 using inoviruses is feasible. IAVs are advantageous in that they can induce both arms of adaptive immunity. This finding could therefore be of importance in future efforts for the design of a HIV-1 vaccine. Moreover, IAVs have unique characteristics compared to other viral vectors: they are stable, they can display a peptide in multiple (from few to thousands) copies on their surface and such constructs are very immunogenic without the use of an adjuvant. In addition, IAVs allow the immune system to focus on a specific epitope of interest instead of the whole protein, which is of great importance, since an important aspect for successful HIV-1 vaccine design is to focus on the induction of neutralizing antibodies against the specific neutralizing epitopes while at the same time avoiding the induction of ineffective antibodies against the numerous non-neutralizing epitopes of the HIV-1 glycoproteins, which act as decoys for the immune system. Ideally, an effective HIV-1 vaccine should be able to stimulate both humoral and cellular immune responses. Recently, adenoviral vectors were tested in clinical trials as HIV-1 vaccine carriers in order to induce cellular immunity, but they were shown to impose serious health risks for humans. On the other hand, IAVs are able to induce cellular immunity and at the same time they have been demonstrated to be safe for administration in animals and humans. These characteristics of IAVs, conferred by their structural and biological properties, make them effective antigen display vectors that can induce strong and specific humoral and cellular immune responses against the displayed antigen. These properties of IAVs along with newly discovered broadly neutralizing anti-HIV-1 antibodies, pave the way for the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine.

What are inovirus-associated vectors?

2019-nCoV: The Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7081861/ SHA: f323af9a07cc54faf9bdbabadaacb0e8b46f99a2 Authors: Koenig, Kristi L.; Beÿ, Christian K.; McDonald, Eric C. Date: 2020-01-31 DOI: 10.5811/westjem.2020.1.46760 License: cc-by Abstract: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is an emerging infectious disease closely related to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV that was first reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. As of January 2020, cases of 2019-nCoV are continuing to be reported in other Eastern Asian countries as well as in the United States, Europe, Australia, and numerous other countries. An unusually high volume of domestic and international travel corresponding to the beginning of the 2020 Chinese New Year complicated initial identification and containment of infected persons. Due to the rapidly rising number of cases and reported deaths, all countries should be considered at risk of imported 2019-nCoV. Therefore, it is essential for prehospital, clinic, and emergency department personnel to be able to rapidly assess 2019-nCoV risk and take immediate actions if indicated. The Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) Tool, originally conceived for the initial detection and management of Ebola virus and later adjusted for other infectious agents, can be adapted for any emerging infectious disease. This paper reports a modification of the 3I Tool for use in the initial detection and management of patients under investigation for 2019-nCoV. After initial assessment for symptoms and epidemiological risk factors, including travel to affected areas and exposure to confirmed 2019-nCoV patients within 14 days, patients are classified in a risk-stratified system. Upon confirmation of a suspected 2019-nCoV case, affected persons must immediately be placed in airborne infection isolation and the appropriate public health agencies notified. This modified 3I Tool will assist emergency and primary care clinicians, as well as out-of-hospital providers, in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed 2019-nCoV. Text: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a novel respiratory disease first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. 1 Chinese health officials were originally investigating a sudden increase in cases of pneumonia which were later determined to be linked to 2019-nCoV. While most cases originated within mainland China, the disease spread to neighboring countries including Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea, and Japan, and later to the United States, Europe, and Australia. A near real-time updated tracking website for cases and locations worldwide, along with reported deaths is available. 2 Chinese health authorities have sequenced 2019-nCoV and freely shared its genetic profile online. 3, 4 Additionally, on January 28, 2020, an Australian laboratory reported growing the virus from a patient sample. As of January 30, 2020, there have been at least 9,776 persons infected and 213 verified deaths. 2 These numbers are likely underestimates due to the limited information available regarding incubation time, transmissibility, and virus origin. The What was the research question? Investigators adapted the "Identify, Isolate, Inform" (3I) Tool for use in suspected cases of 2019-nCoV. What was the major finding of the study? A novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool is designed for frontline clinicians in the management of suspected patients. This 2019-nCoV 3I adaptation will aid healthcare providers most likely to encounter the disease in the containment and effective treatment of patients. age distribution of these verified deaths is currently not available. One preliminary, small-scale study of 41 patients in Wuhan China, reported 6 deaths (15% mortality) with a median age of 49.0 years. 5 Additionally, transmission of the virus has reportedly occurred in healthcare facilities in Wuhan City, raising concerns of spread to healthcare workers, as was seen during prior outbreaks of the novel coronaviruses, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Due to the dynamic nature of the outbreak, exposure criteria may change depending on where new cases of 2019-nCoV are detected, the degree of transmissibility, and when additional information regarding the origin of the virus is discovered and reported. On January 15, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the first known imported case of 2019-nCoV in the US state of Washington. The patient had recently returned from Wuhan City, where he likely contracted the disease. Chicago health authorities reported a second US case on January 24, 2020. This was quickly followed by additional imported cases reported in Orange and Los Angeles Counties, California on January 26, 2020. Additional suspected cases continue to be evaluated. On January 30, 2020, the CDC reported the first local transmission in the US between members in a household. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared 2019-nCoV to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). 6 On January 31, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services declared coronavirus a public health emergency. 7 Healthy individuals and those with mild illness may be asymptomatic, while others may have more pronounced symptoms of fever or lower respiratory illness. Upon identification of a suspected patient, that individual should immediately be isolated with airborne precautions. Further workup and laboratory confirmation can then proceed. Emergency physicians (EPs), emergency medical services (EMS) personnel, and other healthcare workers who encounter patients with suspected 2019-nCoV infection must inform the appropriate authorities, including but not limited to hospital infection control and local or state public health agencies. Healthcare workers must follow on-going developments related to the outbreak, especially new information concerning detection and management. 8, 9 The 3I Tool outlined in this paper is consistent with current US CDC guidelines and can be applied in a variety of settings such as those in emergency departments, urgent-care clinics, physicians' offices, and prehospital settings. This paper will first briefly review 2019-nCoV and then present the novel 2019-nCoV 3I Tool as modified from its initial conception for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 Coronavirus 2019-nCoV infection commonly presents with signs and symptoms of pneumonia or as a nonspecific lower respiratory illness, with coughing or difficulty breathing accompanied by fever. 5, 19, 20 Fever and cough constitute the most common presentations. However, patients may have other respiratory symptoms, sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, myalgia, and headache. Bilateral infiltrates may be seen on chest X-ray. Severe cases may present with sepsis and even shock. Conversely, some patients may present as only mildly ill or asymptomatic altogether. 21 To date, patients with underlying medical conditions and the elderly are more likely to become severely ill, require hospitalization, and ultimately die. 22 Early predictions for incubation time are between 2 and 14 days, based on data from similar coronaviruses. The 14-day criterion for epidemiological risk assumes the longest estimated incubation time. 23 In addition, the World Health Organization (WHO) has created its own interim case definition. 24 By definition, the main features of a novel virus, for example, how it is transmitted, will not be immediately known. However, as with the development of any 3I Tool, it is essential to understand specific characteristics of the disease. In the case of a novel virus such as 2019-CoV, this is challenging since information is rapidly evolving and the science is not yet fully understood. It is possible that the virus will undergo mutations over time that could substantially change its The Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus Koenig et al. features. Nevertheless, an appreciation of the key concepts that drive evidence-based management is beneficial (Table 1) . Management guidance will likely change over time. With the initial discovery of a new potential public health threat, it will likely be unclear how patients become sick. For example, rather than a contagion, there could be a contaminant or a toxin responsible for signs and symptoms. In this case, the possibility of an environmental toxin in the Wuhan Market was a consideration early on when limited to no human-tohuman transmission was reported. The mode of transmission has implications for the types of personal protective equipment (PPE) needed to protect healthcare providers in the prehospital, clinic, and hospital settings. 25 In addition, patients may need decontamination after exposure to certain toxins. 26 Another important consideration for application of the 3I Tool is whether the disease is contagious prior to symptom onset (like measles) or only after symptoms develop (like Ebola). A January 30, 2020 letter to the New England Journal of Medicine describes a purported confirmed instance of transmission from an asymptomatic individual. Researchers state that, before symptom onset, the primary case infected two individuals, one of which infected two additional colleagues. 27 Subsequent investigation suggested that the source patient did have mild symptoms and had taken an antipyretic, calling this reported asymptomatic transmission into question. While quarantine may not be feasible and can have unintended consequences, 28, 29, 30 it is a public health tool that can be considered in cases when disease is transmissible before symptom onset. 30 Conversely, if a disease is known not to be transmissible prior to symptom onset, asymptomatic exposed patients must be monitored, but do not require quarantine or isolation unless they develop symptoms. Initially, it may be unclear whether an infectious agent occurred naturally or was deliberately or accidentally released. In this case, a BSL-4 laboratory studying coronaviruses was located approximately 32 kilometers away from the market where initial exposures were felt to occur. 31 Recall that in 2001, the anthrax letter attacks were initially thought to be naturally occurring. Once determined to be bioterrorism, management of the event was similar to that for a chemical exposure with a sudden impact, defined scene, and need for a rapid response and decontamination on site. This differed from the WHO's modeling predicting an aerosolized release that would result in an incubation period with 100,000 or more persons exposed rather than the 22 people who contracted anthrax in 2001. 32 By understanding the key features of a novel disease, healthcare workers can take evidence-based measures to protect themselves, optimize individual patient management, and prevent further disease spread. It is currently unclear how 2019-nCoV is spread, but it is suspected to be transmitted through contact with infected respiratory secretions, like other known coronaviruses. There are instances of sustained human-to-human transmission across generations of cases, especially near the epicenter in Wuhan City. 21 Current evidence suggests that close contact with an infected person is a major factor in disease transmission. CDC defines "close contact" 33 as being in or within two meters of an area with a confirmed patient or being directly exposed to infectious secretions without appropriate PPE. Healthcare facilities in China have reported spread from person to person. In addition, some mildly ill or potentially even asymptomatic patients may have a higher chance of spreading the disease to others as they may be less likely to seek medical care. 34 The possibility that patients may be infectious prior to symptom onset further compounds the difficulty of containing the virus and effectively preventing transmission. The current majority of 2019-nCoV cases have been within China and its bordering countries. 2 Persons with recent travel (within 14 days) to Wuhan City or another region with widespread disease, or exposure to a patient under investigation, are considered to have an epidemiologic risk factor and should be assessed for signs and symptoms of a viral illness such as fever and respiratory symptoms. Coronavirus is a zoonotic virus The Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) Tool Applied to a Novel Emerging Coronavirus that is transmitted to humans via contact with infected animals. Preliminary reports suggest the disease may have originated in a seafood and live animal market in Wuhan City, but it is still unknown how or whether such transmission occurred. Clinicians working with local public health departments must arrange to have specimens from patients under investigation (PUIs) sent to the CDC laboratory. At this time, the CDC has the only laboratory that can definitively test for 2019-nCoV, though laboratory testing capacity is being rapidly expanded. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays conducted on samples from a patient's upper and lower respiratory tracts will be used to confirm potential cases. In addition, serum antibody titers can be analyzed for confirmation of infection or evidence of immunity. Up-to-date information about the needed specimens and handling requirements to test for 2019-nCoV are available on the CDC website. 35 Like other related coronaviruses, patients with 2019-nCoV frequently present with non-specific symptoms resembling that of influenza. Physicians may consider differential diagnoses related to a wide variety of respiratory infections. In order to relate these symptoms to 2019-nCoV, it is imperative that the identification of a potential exposure event (epidemiologic risk factor) within 14 days of symptom onset is made so that a more focused work-up for 2019-nCoV can be completed. Although the likelihood of coinfection of 2019-nCoV and another respiratory virus is thought to be low, a positive finding of another respiratory pathogen does not exclude the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Many commercially available respiratory panels include "coronavirus" in the results, but neither a positive nor a negative finding on these panels should be used to include or exclude a diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. Supportive care with appropriate infection control is the mainstay of current CDC treatment guidelines for 2019-nCoV. There are not yet any approved antiviral treatments for 2019-nCoV. Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA) for compassionate use cases may be forthcoming from the US federal government for normally unapproved treatments. Supportive treatment predominantly includes respiratory support, hydration, and antipyretics. General treatment for severe cases should focus on the preservation of vital organ function. In the future, antiviral medications may be available. If a secondary bacterial infection such as pneumonia develops, targeted antibiotics are indicated. Prevention of 2019-nCoV transmission, like any other infectious agent, involves minimizing risk of exposure. Vaccines are under accelerated development and may be useful in the future for post-exposure prophylaxis. Healthcare personnel are at increased risk and should practice standard, droplet, and airborne precautions when encountering an infected person, a PUI, or any symptomatic close contacts. Healthcare workers handling specimens should also adhere to CDC guidelines and should not attempt to perform any virus isolation or characterization. Fever screening has been implemented at numerous airports, including major international hubs within Asia and the US. The efficacy of this intervention is not well documented, however, as some infected persons may be afebrile and disease transmission might occur prior to symptom onset. 27 In addition, people can artificially lower their temperature readings, e.g., by applying ice to their foreheads. As outlined above, admission criteria for 2019-nCoV are similar to that of other patients. If patients do not meet medical criteria for hospitalization, they may be discharged home with isolation precautions and continued observation. EPs must notify local public health authorities so appropriate monitoring and community protective measures can be instituted. The Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) Tool was initially developed for Ebola virus disease 10,11 and later adapted for measles, 12 MERS, 13 mumps, 14 Zika virus disease, 15 hepatitis A, 16 pertussis, 17 and scabies. 18 This novel tool for suspected 2019-nCoV patients ( Figure 1 ) provides frontline clinicians with a simple algorithm to manage an emerging disease. Identification of exposed patients with an epidemiologic risk factor within 14 days of symptom onset is a crucial first step. An automatic prompt in the electronic health record can be useful in assisting clinicians with early identification of patients at risk. Case definitions promulgated by the WHO 24 and CDC 33 provide useful comprehensive definitions that have been incorporated into the 3I Tool. The 2019-nCoV Tool provides an accurate, summarized algorithm to immediately, and effectively manage suspected patients until additional resources can be consulted. Patients who do not have an exposure risk or any symptoms may be triaged normally. However, before making patient contact, providers must first apply the Vital Sign Zero concept. 36 Vital Sign Zero is a preliminary, non-contact assessment (i.e., performed prior to touching a patient to take traditional vital signs) to first determine whether specific PPE is indicated before the examination commences. By taking the additional time to complete this assessment, risk of exposure and further transmission can be minimized. while in the treatment facility should be started and maintained to assist with the possibility of contact tracing. Following isolation, physicians should immediately inform the appropriate authorities. Patients who do not meet medical criteria for admission can be isolated at home during the evaluation phase. 37 Health department officials can help prevent transmission in isolated patients by providing in-home monitoring and implementing appropriate exposure-control measures. Providers in the prehospital setting who have a high likelihood of encountering 2019-nCoV patients, such as those near international ports of entry, should adhere to established exposure control guidelines. 38 Along with appropriate PPE, providers should also carry thermometers to quantify any fever. In the US, providers should contact the appropriate CDC quarantine station upon isolation of infected or suspected patients, especially those from Wuhan, China or other regions with widespread disease, who report symptoms in the last 14 days. As for other infectious diseases, assessing travel history is essential. Dispatch protocols have been instituted to facilitate identification of callers to 911 or the country-equivalent emergency number prior to prehospital personnel arrival. 39 In addition, CDC has promulgated EMS guidelines for prehospital PPE, transportation of PUIs, vehicle decontamination, and 911 Public Safety Answering Points (PSAPs) for 2019-nCoV. 40 2019-nCoV is an emerging infectious disease with rapidly evolving features, the full scope of which will be defined over time. Prior outbreaks of coronaviruses can help inform needed actions in the short term to assist with both treatment of individual patients and prevention of global disease spread. This adaptation of the Identify-Isolate-Inform Tool serves as a resource for healthcare workers who need to make clear, rapid assessments when confronted with potential patients. The concise nature of the 2019-nCoV 3I Tool allows for the rapid and effective management of a novel disease by healthcare providers.

When did the WHO declare COVID to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern?

Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7029449/ SHA: 90de2d957e1960b948b8c38c9877f9eca983f9eb Authors: Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M Date: 2020-02-13 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.6.2000110 License: cc-by Abstract: Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2]. The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid- to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5–6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2,5], and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2]. Text: It is now 6 weeks since Chinese health authorities announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1] causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, the major transport hub of central China. The earliest human infections had occurred by early December 2019, and a large wet market in central Wuhan was linked to most, but not all, of the initial cases [2] . While evidence from the initial outbreak investigations seemed to suggest that 2019-nCoV could not easily spread between humans [3] , it is now very clear that infections have been spreading from person to person [2] . We recently estimated that more than 75,000 infections may have occurred in Wuhan as at 25 January 2020 [4] , and increasing numbers of infections continue to be detected in other cities in mainland China and around the world. A number of important characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection have already been identified, but in order to calibrate public health responses we need improved information on transmission dynamics, severity of the disease, immunity, and the impact of control and mitigation measures that have been applied to date. Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2] . The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid-to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5-6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2, 5] , and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2] . Chains of transmission have now been reported in a number of locations outside of mainland China. Within the coming days or weeks it will become clear whether sustained local transmission has been occurring in other cities outside of Hubei province in China, or in other countries. If sustained transmission does occur in other locations, it would be valuable to determine whether there is variation in transmissibility by location, for example because of different behaviours or control measures, or because of different environmental conditions. To address the latter, virus survival studies can be done in the laboratory to confirm whether there are preferred ranges of temperature or humidity for 2019-nCoV transmission to occur. In an analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection, 73% of cases with illness onset between 12 and 22 January reported no exposure to either a wet market or another person with symptoms of a respiratory illness [2] . The lack of reported exposure to another ill person could be attributed to lack of awareness or recall bias, but China's health minister publicly warned that pre-symptomatic transmission could be occurring [6] . Determining the extent to which asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission might be occurring is an urgent priority, because it has direct implications for public health and hospital infection control. Data on viral shedding dynamics could help in assessing duration of infectiousness. For severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), infectivity peaked at around 10 days after illness onset [7] , consistent with the peak in viral load at around that time [8] . This allowed control of the SARS epidemic through prompt detection of cases and strict isolation. For influenza virus infections, virus shedding is highest on the day of illness onset and relatively higher from shortly before symptom onset until a few days after onset [9] . To date, transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV appear more similar to influenza, with contagiousness occurring around the time of symptom onset, rather than SARS. Transmission of respiratory viruses generally happens through large respiratory droplets, but some respiratory viruses can spread through fine particle aerosols [10] , and indirect transmission via fomites can also play a role. Coronaviruses can also infect the human gastrointestinal tract [11, 12] , and faecal-oral transmission might also play a role in this instance. The SARS-CoV superspreading event at Amoy Gardens where more than 300 cases were infected was attributed to faecal-oral, then airborne, spread through pressure differentials between contaminated effluent pipes, bathroom floor drains and flushing toilets [13] . The first large identifiable superspreading event during the present 2019-nCoV outbreak has apparently taken place on the Diamond Princess cruise liner quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan, with at least 130 passengers tested positive for 2019-nCoV as at 10 February 2020 [14] . Identifying which modes are important for 2019-nCoV transmission would inform the importance of personal protective measures such as face masks (and specifically which types) and hand hygiene. The first human infections were identified through a surveillance system for pneumonia of unknown aetiology, and all of the earliest infections therefore had Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes pneumonia. It is well established that some infections can be severe, particularly in older adults with underlying medical conditions [15, 16] , but based on the generally mild clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV cases detected outside China, it appears that there could be many more mild infections than severe infections. Determining the spectrum of clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV infections is perhaps the most urgent research priority, because it determines the strength of public health response required. If the seriousness of infection is similar to the 1918/19 Spanish influenza, and therefore at the upper end of severity scales in influenza pandemic plans, the same responses would be warranted for 2019-nCoV as for the most severe influenza pandemics. If, however, the seriousness of infection is similar to seasonal influenza, especially during milder seasons, mitigation measures could be tuned accordingly. Beyond a robust assessment of overall severity, it is also important to determine high risk groups. Infections would likely be more severe in older adults, obese individuals or those with underlying medical conditions, but there have not yet been reports of severity of infections in pregnant women, and very few cases have been reported in children [2] . Those under 18 years are a critical group to study in order to tease out the relative roles of susceptibility vs severity as possible underlying causes for the very rare recorded instances of infection in this age group. Are children protected from infection or do they not fall ill after infection? If they are naturally immune, which is unlikely, we should understand why; otherwise, even if they do not show symptoms, it is important to know if they shed the virus. Obviously, the question about virus shedding of those being infected but asymptomatic leads to the crucial question of infectivity. Answers to these questions are especially pertinent as basis for decisions on school closure as a social distancing intervention, which can be hugely disruptive not only for students but also because of its knock-on effect for child care and parental duties. Very few children have been confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far but that does not necessarily mean that they are less susceptible or that they could not be latent carriers. Serosurveys in affected locations could inform this, in addition to truly assessing the clinical severity spectrum. Another question on susceptibility is regarding whether 2019-nCoV infection confers neutralising immunity, usually but not always, indicated by the presence of neutralising antibodies in convalescent sera. Some experts already questioned whether the 2019-nCoV may behave similarly to MERS-CoV in cases exhibiting mild symptoms without eliciting neutralising antibodies [17] . A separate question pertains to the possibility of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or of disease [18, 19] . If either of these were to be relevant, the transmission dynamics could become more complex. A wide range of control measures can be considered to contain or mitigate an emerging infection such as 2019-nCoV. Internationally, the past week has seen an increasing number of countries issue travel advisories or outright entry bans on persons from Hubei province or China as a whole, as well as substantial cuts in flights to and from affected areas out of commercial considerations. Evaluation of these mobility restrictions can confirm their potential effectiveness in delaying local epidemics [20] , and can also inform when as well as how to lift these restrictions. If and when local transmission begins in a particular location, a variety of community mitigation measures can be implemented by health authorities to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of an epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons [21] . A number of social distancing measures have already been implemented in Chinese cities in the past few weeks including school and workplace closures. It should now be an urgent priority to quantify the effects of these measures and specifically whether they can reduce the effective reproductive number below 1, because this will guide the response strategies in other locations. During the 1918/19 influenza pandemic, cities in the United States, which implemented the most aggressive and sustained community measures were the most successful ones in mitigating the impact of that pandemic [22] . Similarly to international travel interventions, local social distancing measures should be assessed for their impact and when they could be safely discontinued, albeit in a coordinated and deliberate manner across China such that recrudescence in the epidemic curve is minimised. Mobile telephony global positioning system (GPS) data and location services data from social media providers such as Baidu and Tencent in China could become the first occasion when these data inform outbreak control in real time. At the individual level, surgical face masks have often been a particularly visible image from affected cities in China. Face masks are essential components of personal protective equipment in healthcare settings, and should be recommended for ill persons in the community or for those who care for ill persons. However, there is now a shortage of supply of masks in China and elsewhere, and debates are ongoing about their protective value for uninfected persons in the general community. The Table summarises research gaps to guide the public health response identified. In conclusion, there are a number of urgent research priorities to inform the public health response to the global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Establishing robust estimates of the clinical severity of infections is probably the most pressing, because flattening out the surge in hospital admissions would be essential if there is a danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed with patients who require inpatient care, not only for those infected with 2019-nCoV but also for urgent acute care of patients with other conditions including those scheduled for procedures and operations. In addressing the research gaps identified here, there is a need for strong collaboration of a competent corps of epidemiological scientists and public health workers who have the flexibility to cope with the surge capacity required, as well as support from laboratories that can deliver on the ever rising demand for diagnostic tests for 2019-nCoV and related sequelae. The readiness survey by Reusken et al. in this issue of Eurosurveillance testifies to the rapid response and capabilities of laboratories across Europe should the outbreak originating in Wuhan reach this continent [23] . In the medium term, we look towards the identification of efficacious pharmaceutical agents to prevent and treat what may likely become an endemic infection globally. Beyond the first year, one interesting possibility in the longer term, perhaps borne of wishful hope, is that after the first few epidemic waves, the subsequent endemic re-infections could be of milder severity. Particularly if children are being infected and are developing immunity hereafter, 2019-nCoV could optimistically become the fifth human coronavirus causing the common cold. None declared.

How do some respiratory viruses spread?

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

What complications are associated with CHIKV?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

What is the likely way that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues?

The vacuolar-type ATPase inhibitor archazolid increases tumor cell adhesion to endothelial cells by accumulating extracellular collagen https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6133348/ SHA: f1b81916fac1ca3d50dde774df2e1bb26bf0fb39 Authors: Luong, Betty; Schwenk, Rebecca; Bräutigam, Jacqueline; Müller, Rolf; Menche, Dirk; Bischoff, Iris; Fürst, Robert Date: 2018-09-11 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0203053 License: cc-by Abstract: The vacuolar-type H(+)-ATPase (v-ATPase) is the major proton pump that acidifies intracellular compartments of eukaryotic cells. Since the inhibition of v-ATPase resulted in anti-tumor and anti-metastatic effects in different tumor models, this enzyme has emerged as promising strategy against cancer. Here, we used the well-established v-ATPase inhibitor archazolid, a natural product first isolated from the myxobacterium Archangium gephyra, to study the consequences of v-ATPase inhibition in endothelial cells (ECs), in particular on the interaction between ECs and cancer cells, which has been neglected so far. Human endothelial cells treated with archazolid showed an increased adhesion of tumor cells, whereas the transendothelial migration of tumor cells was reduced. The adhesion process was independent from the EC adhesion molecules ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and N-cadherin. Instead, the adhesion was mediated by β1-integrins expressed on tumor cells, as blocking of the integrin β1 subunit reversed this process. Tumor cells preferentially adhered to the β1-integrin ligand collagen and archazolid led to an increase in the amount of collagen on the surface of ECs. The accumulation of collagen was accompanied by a strong decrease of the expression and activity of the protease cathepsin B. Overexpression of cathepsin B in ECs prevented the capability of archazolid to increase the adhesion of tumor cells onto ECs. Our study demonstrates that the inhibition of v-ATPase by archazolid induces a pro-adhesive phenotype in endothelial cells that promotes their interaction with cancer cells, whereas the transmigration of tumor cells was reduced. These findings further support archazolid as a promising anti-metastatic compound. Text: The vacuolar-type H + -ATPase (v-ATPase) is the major proton pump responsible for acidification of intracellular compartments in eukaryotic cells [1] . The enzyme consists of two multi-subunit complexes, the soluble V 1 transmembrane V o subcomplex required for the proton transport across membranes [1, 2] . In most cell types v-ATPases are only expressed in the endomembrane system to regulate and maintain the acidic pH of intracellular compartments such as lysosomes, endosomes, the Golgi apparatus, secretory granules and coated vesicles [3] . The function of v-ATPases is essential for cellular processes such as vesicular trafficking, receptor-mediated endocytosis and protein degradation and processing. In specialized cell types including osteoclasts and renal epithelial cells, v-ATPases can also be expressed on the plasma membrane, where they pump protons into the extracellular space [2] [3] [4] . In cancer cells v-ATPases are expressed on the plasma membrane in order to eliminate toxic cytosolic H + . Most importantly, v-ATPases contribute to the acidic tumor microenvironment, which leads to the activation of proteases, thus facilitating tumor cell migration, invasion and angiogenesis [5] [6] [7] . Since the inhibition of v-ATPase was shown to reduce the invasiveness of cancer cells and metastasis formation [8, 9] , this enzyme has emerged as a promising drug target in the recent years. Archazolid A and B are highly potent and specific inhibitors of v-ATPases [10] . They were first isolated from the myxobacterium Archangium gephyra [11] . These compounds inhibit v-ATPase at low nanomolar concentrations [10, 12] by binding to the subunit c of the V o complex. As their biological activity is comparable to the v-ATPase inhibitors bafilomycin and concanamycin [10, 11] , archazolids are natural compounds of high interest that can be used both as a tool to study the consequences of v-ATPase inhibition and as a lead for drug development. Archazolids can be either produced by fermentation [11] or by total synthesis [13, 14] . In the field of cancer research several studies reported on interesting pharmacological effects of archazolid: It reduced the migration of different invasive tumor cells in vitro and cancer cell metastasis in vivo in a breast tumor mouse model [15] . Furthermore, archazolid activated pathways of cellular stress response and apoptosis in highly invasive tumor cells [16] . In classically activated macrophages, archazolid selectively induced the generation of tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα), which may indirectly promote tumor suppression [17] . Up to now, the role of v-ATPases in endothelial cells has only rarely been investigated. The endothelium plays a crucial role in the pathogenesis and progression of cancer: The metastatic cascade includes local angiogenesis at the site of the primary tumor and adhesion of tumor cells at the site of metastasis [18] . Angiogenesis, the development of new blood vessels out of existing ones, depends on the proliferation, migration and differentiation of endothelial cells [19] . This process ensures the nutrient supply of the tumor and its growth [20] . Circulating cancer cells can adhere to the endothelium at distant sites. This adhesive interaction is mediated by receptors and corresponding ligands expressed on tumor and endothelial cells [18, 21] . V-ATPases have been reported to regulate intracellular pH and cell migration in microvascular endothelial cells [22, 23] . A recent study showed that the inhibition of v-ATPase by concanamycin prevented proliferation, reduced migration and impaired angiogenesis-related signaling in endothelial cells [24] . So far, there are no investigations on the role of endothelial v-ATPases for the process of tumor cell adhesion onto the endothelium. Thus, we were interested in the consequences of the inhibition of endothelial v-ATPase by archazolid on the interaction between endothelial and cancer cells. Various cell adhesion molecules on the endothelium, such as intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion protein (VCAM-1), E-selectin or N-cadherin [21] as well as integrins expressed on cancer cells have been reported to mediate cell adhesion of cancer cells onto endothelial cells [25] [26] [27] . Accordingly, we focused on these cell adhesion molecules and integrins. For the first time, our study revealed a link between the function of v-ATPases and the adhesion and transmigration properties of endothelial cells. CellTiter-Blue Cell Viability Assay (Promega, Mannheim, Germany) was performed according to the manufacturer's protocol for determining the cell viability of cells after treatment with archazolid. This assay is based on the ability of metabolically active cells to reduce resazurin which results in fluorescent resorufin. The CellTiter-Blue Reagent was added to the cells 4 h before the endpoint of treatment. Fluorescence was measured with an Infinite F200 pro microplate reader (Tecan, Männedorf, Switzerland) at 560 nm (excitation) and 590 nm (emission). CytoTox 96 Non-Radioactive Cytotoxicity Assay (Promega) was performed according to the manufacturer's instructions for determining the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release after treatment with archazolid. Lysis buffer was added to untreated cells 45 min before the end of treatment to induce the release of this enzyme. LDH is a cytosolic enzyme that is released by leaky cells. Released LDH catalyzes the enzymatic conversion of lactate to pyruvate which provides NADH for the conversion of iodonitrotetrazolium violet into a red formazan product in the presence of diaphorase. The absorbance was measured with a Varioskan Flash microplate reader (Thermo Fisher Scientific) at 490 nm. LysoTracker Red DND-99 (Life Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientific) is a dye to measure pH values in viable cells. HUVECs were cultured to confluence on collagen G-coated μ-slides (80826, ibidi, Martinsried, Germany) before they were treated with archazolid for 24 h. 1 μg/ ml Hoechst 33342 (Sigma-Aldrich, Munich, Germany) was used to visualize the nuclei and 50 nM LysoTracker Red DND-99 was used to visualize the acidic compartments which correspond to the lysosomes. Both dyes were incubated for 10 min at 37˚C before acquisition of single images by a Leica DMI6000 B fluorescence microscope (Leica Microsystems, Wetzlar, Germany). HUVECs were seeded in collagen G-coated 24-well plates and grown to confluence for two days before treatment. The cells were incubated with indicated concentrations of archazolid for 24 h. Untreated MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells were labeled with CellTracker Green CMFDA Dye (5 μM in serum-free DMEM, 37˚C) for 30 min before 100,000 cells per well were added to HUVECs and were allowed to adhere for various time points at 37˚C. Non-adherent tumor cells were washed off three times with PBS containing Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ . Tumor cell adhesion was determined by fluorescence measurements with an Infinite F200 pro microplate reader (Tecan) at 485 nm (excitation) and 535 nm (emission). For blocking the integrin β1 subunit on MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells, CellTracker Greenlabeled MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells were incubated with an anti-integrin β1 antibody (P5D2, ab24693, Abcam, Cambridge, United Kingdom) at a concentration of 1 μg antibody per one million cells in 1 ml DMEM. Before adding to archazolid-treated HUVECs, MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells were washed once with DMEM. For blocking the integrin β1 subunit on HUVECs, the cells were incubated with the anti-integrin β1 antibody (0.1 μg/well in ECGM). HUVECs were washed once with ECGM before untreated MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells were added to HUVECs. For the adhesion of MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells onto extracellular matrix (ECM) components 24-well plates were coated with collagen G (10 μg/ml in PBS), human plasma fibronectin (10 μg/ml PBS) or laminin-411 (10 μg/ml in Dulbecco's PBS [DPBS] containing Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ ) at 4˚C overnight. The adhesion of MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells onto these three most prominent ECM components was carried out as described above (10 min adhesion at 37˚C). HUVECs were grown on a porous filter membrane (Transwell insert, polycarbonate membrane, 8 μm pores; Corning, New York, USA) for 48 h and were treated as indicated. Untreated MDA-MB-231 cells were labeled with CellTracker Green CMFDA Dye (as described in the section cell adhesion assay) and resuspended in medium 199 (PAN-Biotech) containing 0.1% BSA. HUVECs were washed twice with medium 199 containing 0.1% BSA before MDA-MB-231 cells were allowed to transmigrate through the endothelial monolayer for 24 h. Medium 199 containing 0.1% BSA was used as negative control and medium 199 containing 20% FCS was used as chemoattractant for transmigration in the lower compartment. Non-migrated cells remaining in the upper compartment were carefully removed using a cotton swab. Transmigrated cells were lysed in radioimmunoprecipitation assay (RIPA) buffer and transmigration was quantified by measuring the fluorescence signal at 485 nm (excitation) and 535 nm (emission). HUVECs were grown to confluence on 6-well plates before they were treated with archazolid for 12 h. The cells were induced to upregulate the gene expression of cell adhesion molecules by TNFα. RNA was isolated using the RNeasy Mini Kit from Qiagen (Hilden, Germany) according to the manufacturer's protocol. On-column DNase digestion was performed to remove genomic DNA. RNA was transcribed into cDNA by Superscript II (Life Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientific). qPCR experiments were performed using a StepOnePlus System (Applied Biosystems, Thermo Fisher Scientific) and data was analyzed by the StepOne and Ste-pOnePlus Software v2.3. Power SYBR Green PCR Master Mix (Life Technologies) and the comparative C T quantitation method (2 -ΔΔCT ) were used. HUVECs were grown to confluence on 12-well plates before they were treated with archazolid for 24 h. Cells were treated with TNFα for 24 h to induce the expression of cell adhesion molecules. Subsequently, the cells were detached with HyClone HyQTase (GE Healthcare, Freiburg, Germany). In the case of ICAM-1 the detached cells were fixed with 4% formaldehyde (Polysciences, Hirschberg an der Bergstraße, Germany) in PBS for 10 min and washed once with PBS before incubating with the fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC)-labeled anti-human CD54 (mouse, ICAM-1) antibody (MCA1615F, Biozol, Eching, Germany) at room temperature for 45 min. For all other proteins, the cells were not fixed and washed once with PBS before incubating with the antibodies phycoerythrin (PE)-labeled anti-human CD106 (mouse, VCAM-1), PE-labeled anti-human CD62E (mouse, E-selectin) and PE-labeled anti-human CD325 (mouse, N-cadherin) from Becton Dickinson on ice for 45 min. These antibodies were diluted in PBS containing 0.2% BSA. The surface expression of cell adhesion molecules was measured by flow cytometry (FACSVerse, Becton Dickinson, Heidelberg, Germany). To stain the surface collagen on HUVECs, cells were incubated with an anti-human collagen antibody (rabbit, 1:40, ab36064, Abcam) on ice for 30 min. The staining procedure was performed on ice to ensure that surface proteins or antibodies are not endocytosed. The cells were washed once with PBS containing Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ before they were fixed with Roti-Histofix (Carl Roth). Alexa Fluor 488-conjugated anti-rabbit antibody (goat, 1:400, A11008, Life Technologies) was used as secondary antibody and Hoechst 33342 (1 μg/ml, Sigma-Aldrich) was used to visualize nuclei. Confluent HUVECs in 6-well plates were treated as indicated. Cells were washed with ice-cold PBS and lysed with RIPA buffer supplemented with protease inhibitors (Complete Mini EDTA-free; Roche, Mannheim, Germany), sodium orthovanadate, sodium fluoride, phenylmethylsulphonyl fluoride, β-glycerophosphate, sodium pyrophosphate and H 2 O 2 . Protein determination was performed using the Pierce BCA Protein Assay Kit (Thermo Fisher Scientific). Equal amounts of proteins (10-20 μg) were separated by sodium dodecyl sulfatepolyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE; Bio-Rad Laboratories, Munich, Germany). Separated proteins were transferred onto polyvinylidene difluoride membranes by tank blotting (Bio-Rad Laboratories) for immunodetection. Membranes were blocked with 5% boltinggrade milk powder (Carl Roth) in TBS containing 0.1% Tween 20 (Sigma-Aldrich). The following antibodies were used: mouse anti-human cathepsin B antibody (IM27L, Merck) (1:500), mouse anti-β-actin-peroxidase antibody (A3854, Sigma-Aldrich) (1:100,000) and antimouse IgG horse radish peroxidase (HRP)-linked antibody (7076, Cell Signaling, Frankfurt, Germany) (1:5,000). ImageJ version 1.49m was used for densitometric analysis. Cathepsin B activity assay was performed as described in the publication by Kubisch et al. [28] . Confluent HUVECs or HMEC-1 seeded in 6-well plates were treated as indicated. Cells were washed with PBS and lysed with the non-denaturating M-PER mammalian protein extraction reagent (78501, Thermo Fisher Scientific) supplemented with protease inhibitors (Complete Mini EDTA-free, Roche), sodium orthovanadate, sodium fluoride, phenylmethylsulphonyl fluoride. The fluorogenic cathepsin B substrate Z-Arg-Arg-7-amido-4-methylcoumarin hydrochloride (C5429, Sigma-Aldrich) was added to 30 μg of the cell lysate diluted in assay buffer supplemented with 2 mM L-cysteine (C7880, Sigma-Aldrich) and incubated for 30 min at 40˚C. Fluorescence was measured at 348 nm (excitation) and 440 nm (emission) with a microplate reader (Varioskan Flash, Thermo Fisher Scientific). The intensity of the fluorescence signal corresponded to the cathepsin B enzyme activity. For background subtraction the cathepsin B inhibitor CA-074Me (Enzo Life Sciences, Lörrach, Germany) was added to an additional reaction. The HUVEC Nucleofector Kit (Lonza, Cologne, Germany) was used to transfect HUVECs. The transfection was performed according to the manufacturer's protocol using 2.5 μg plasmid DNA for 500,000 cells (Nucleofector 2b Device, Lonza). 48 h after transfection the cells were treated for further experiments. The addgene plasmid #11249 hCathepsin B was kindly provided by Hyeryun Choe [29] . hCathepsin B was digested with PmeI and XbaI and the linear DNA fragment not corresponding to the human CTSB gene was religated to generate the empty pcDNA3.1 (-) delta MCS plasmid that was used for control transfections. The original backbone of hCathepsin B is the pcDNA3.1 (-) from Thermo Fisher Scientific. The control vector pcDNA3.1 (-) delta MCS used for our transfections was cloned on the basis of hCathepsin B and is therefore lacking almost the whole part of the multiple cloning site of the pcDNA3.1 (-). Statistical analyses were performed using GraphPad Prism 5.0 (San Diego, USA). One-way ANOVA followed by Tukey's post-hoc test or unpaired t-test was used for the evaluation of a minimum of three independent experiments. The numbers of independently performed experiments (n) are stated in the corresponding figure legends. p 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Data are expressed as mean ± standard error of the mean (SEM). Since the v-ATPase inhibitor archazolid has never been used for studies in endothelial cells, we first performed cytotoxicity assays. We treated confluent HUVECs with up to 1 nM archazolid for 24 and 48 h and observed that this treatment has neither an influence on the metabolic activity nor on the release of LDH after 24 h (Fig 1A and 1B, left panels) . The metabolic activity and the release of LDH were only slightly affected by the highest concentration of archazolid after 48 h (Fig 1A and 1B, right panels) . Consequently, the following experiments were all carried out after 24 h (or less) of archazolid treatment in order to exclude any cytotoxic effects of archazolid within our experimental settings. Microscopic analysis revealed that also the integrity of the endothelial monolayer was not affected by archazolid, but the cells showed a slightly different morphology (Fig 2A) : Archazolid-treated cells were swollen compared to control cells, which was not unexpected, as vacuolation of the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) has been described for other cell types and is typical for v-ATPase inhibitors [11, 16, 24, 30] . This effect was obvious both in subconfluent and in confluent cells (Fig 2A) . Inhibition of v-ATPase prevents the acidification of lysosomes [1, 31] . Using the cell-permeable dye LysoTracker Red DND-99, it is possible to label the acidic lysosomes in living cells. Thus, this dye can serve as an indicator of v-ATPase inhibition. To proof that archazolid is also functionally active as a v-ATPase inhibitor in HUVECs, cells were treated with 1 nM archazolid before they were incubated with LysoTracker Red DND-99 and Hoechst 33342. As shown in Fig 2B, the red vesicular staining corresponding to acidified lysosomes in control cells disappeared completely after treatment with archazolid. In summary, archazolid treatment for 24 h was not cytotoxic to quiescent HUVECs, but inhibited the functionality of the v-ATPase. We analyzed the adhesion of MDA-MB-231 cells onto HUVECs. Confluent HUVECs were treated with up to 1 nM archazolid for 24 h. Untreated MDA-MB-231 cells were labeled with Cell-Tracker Green CMFDA Dye. Interestingly, v-ATPase inhibition strongly increased the attachment of the metastatic breast carcinoma cell line MDA-MB-231 onto HUVECs after 10 and 120 min of adhesion (Fig 3A and 3B) . We also investigated the influence of archazolid on the transendothelial migration of MDA-MB-231 cells. HUVECs seeded in a Boyden chamber were treated with 1 nM archazolid for 24 h. CellTracker Green-labeled MDA-MB-231 cells (not treated with archazolid) were allowed to transmigrate through the endothelial monolayer for 24 h. As shown in Fig 3C, archazolid significantly decreased the transendothelial migration of MDA-MB-231 cells. The influence of archazolid on tumor cell adhesion was not only studied in HUVECs, which represent macrovascular endothelial cells, but also in microvascular HMEC-1 cells. Moreover, besides the breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-231, also PC-3 prostate cancer cells were used as a second metastatic cancer cell line. Archazolid treatment of endothelial cells increased the attachment of MDA-MB-231 cells onto the HMEC-1 monolayer after 120 min of adhesion ( Fig 4A) and increased the attachment of PC-3 cells onto the HUVEC monolayer after 30 and 60 min of adhesion (Fig 4B) . Of note, the adhesion of non-metastatic Jurkat cells, an acute T cell leukemia cell line, remained unaffected after treatment of HUVECs with archazolid (S1A Fig). Taken together, archazolid treatment augmented the adhesive properties of both micro-and macrovascular endothelial cells for metastatic tumor cells, but not for non-metastatic ones. Of note, cancer cell adhesion onto archazolid-activated endothelial cells increased with the time of adhesion. The adhesion of tumor cells onto the endothelium is in principle similar to that of leukocytes, but slightly differs in the molecules that mediate the adhesion process. Ligands for the endothelial cell adhesion molecules ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and N-cadherin were found to be expressed on tumor cells and to mediate tumor-endothelial cell interaction [21] . Inhibition of the v-ATPase might affect the expression of endothelial cell adhesion molecules on mRNA or protein levels. To determine the mRNA expression of ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and Ncadherin, HUVECs were treated with archazolid for 12 h. TNFα is known to upregulate the expression of ICAM-1, VCAM-1 and E-selectin [32] and, thus, served as positive control. Quantitative real-time PCR showed that v-ATPase inhibition in HUVECs did not alter the mRNA levels of ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and N-cadherin (Fig 5A) . The protein expression of these adhesion molecules on the surface of endothelial cells was analyzed by flow cytometry. Archazolid (1 nM, 24 h) did not affect the cell surface expression of ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and N-cadherin (Fig 5B) . Besides ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and N-cadherin, also integrins are able to mediate the process of cell adhesion [33] [34] [35] . Since none of the cell adhesion molecules expressed on HUVECs were regulated upon archazolid treatment, we considered integrins as potential interaction partners. Within this protein family β1-integrins have been reported to mediate tumor cell adhesion onto quiescent endothelial cells [25] . In order to elucidate the role of β1-integrins for the archazolid-induced tumor cell adhesion, the integrin β1-subunit was blocked either on MDA-MB-231 cells, PC-3 cells or on HUVECs. (Of note, as in all experiments throughout this study, only endothelial cells were treated with archazolid.) After blocking β1-integrins on MDA-MB-231 or PC-3 cells, the archazolid-induced tumor cell adhesion was reduced almost to control level (Fig 6A and 6B , left panels), whereas blocking of β1-integrins on HUVECs had no significant effect on the increase of tumor cell adhesion by v-ATPase inhibition (Fig 6A and 6B , right panels). Depending on their α subunit, β1-integrins have a variety of ligands including extracellular matrix (ECM) components such as collagen, fibronectin and laminin [35] . Therefore, we hypothesized that archazolid treatment of endothelial cells might lead to an upregulation of these components. MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells were allowed to adhere onto plastic that was coated with these ECM components. This cell adhesion assay revealed that MDA-MB-231 as well as PC-3 cells favor the interaction with the ECM component collagen, as the adhesion onto collagen is much higher than onto the uncoated plastic control (Fig 7A) . MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells also adhered to fibronectin-coated plastic, but to a much lesser extent compared to the collagen coating. Therefore, we focused on the interaction between these two tumor cell lines and collagen. Blocking of the integrin β1 subunit on MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells clearly abolished the interaction with collagen (Fig 7B) , indicating that the attachment of these tumor cells to collagen is mediated by β1-integrins. Since collagen is the major ECM component MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells interact with, the next step was to prove whether v-ATPase inhibition influences the amount of collagen expressed by HUVECs as extracellular matrix. To detect collagen on the endothelial surface, archazolid-treated HUVECs were labeled with an antibody against collagen type I-IV on ice to prevent endocytosis and to ensure that the antibody does not bind to intracellular collagen. Interestingly, archazolid increased the amount of surface collagen on HUVECs by about 50% (Fig 7C) . Control stainings were performed using an antibody against the cytosolic p65 subunit of the transcription factor nuclear factor κB (NFκB) to show that intracellular proteins were not detected by this staining method (S2 Fig) . It was reported that v-ATPase inhibition by archazolid impairs the activity of cathepsin B [28, 36] , a lysosomal enzyme that degrades extracellular matrix components including collagen [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] . As collagen is degraded by cathepsin B and the activation of cathepsin B depends on v-ATPase activity [28, [36] [37] [38] 42] , we suggested that an accumulation of collagen on the surface of endothelial cells might be a consequence of an impaired functionality of cathepsin B. Therefore, an enzyme activity assay based on the proteolysis of a fluorogenic cathepsin B substrate was performed. In archazolid-treated HUVECs and HMEC-1 the activity of cathepsin B was induce both the mRNA (1 ng/ml TNF) and the cell surface expression (10 ng/ml TNF) of ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and Ncadherin. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0203053.g005 Inhibition of endothelial vATPase increases tumor cell adhesion to endothelial cells strongly decreased by approximately 50% compared to control cells at an archazolid concentration of 1 nM (Fig 8A) . In line with this result, western blot analysis showed that archazolid (1 nM) reduces the protein expression of the mature, active form of cathepsin B to less than 40% of the control in HUVECs (Fig 8B) . To proof whether the archazolid-induced tumor cell adhesion is a consequence of the decreased amount of cathepsin B, HUVECs were transfected with a plasmid coding for human cathepsin B or with the empty vector as control. After 48 h, the transfected cells were treated with 1 nM archazolid. The level of cathepsin B after transfection and treatment was assessed by western blot analysis (Fig 9A) . Overexpression of cathepsin B strongly diminished both the basal and the archazolid-induced adhesion of MDA-MB-231 cells (Fig 9B) . Targeting the proton pump v-ATPase for cancer therapy has gained great interest since its inhibition was reported to reduce the invasiveness of cancer cells and, most importantly, also metastasis [8, 9] . Thus, intensive research related to v-ATPases was done in cancer cells, whereas there are only few studies investigating v-ATPases in endothelial cells indicating a role in migration, proliferation and possibly angiogenesis [22] [23] [24] . In the present study we used the myxobacterial natural product archazolid to investigate the consequences of v-ATPase inhibition in the endothelium on tumor-endothelial cell interactions. For the first time, we were able to show a link between v-ATPase and the adhesion and transmigration properties of the endothelium. Inhibition of the v-ATPase in endothelial cells by archazolid significantly increased the adhesion of metastatic cancer cells and decreased the transendothelial migration of cancer cells which was attributed to augmented collagen levels on the surface on archazolid-treated endothelial cells. Of note, adhesion of the non-metastatic Jurkat cell line onto archazolid-treated endothelial cells remained unaffected. The archazolidinduced adhesion of tumor cells was independent from the endothelial cell adhesion molecules ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin and N-cadherin, as their expression was not regulated by the compound. However, we found that the archazolid-induced tumor cell adhesion was mediated by β1-integrins expressed on MDA-MB-231 breast cancer and PC-3 prostate cancer cells as blocking of the integrin β1 subunit on these tumor cells reversed the pro-adhesive effect of archazolid. In adhesion experiments on plastic coated with extracellular matrix components, we could show that MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells clearly favored the interaction with collagen, whereas the adhesion of non-metastatic Jurkat cells was largely independent from extracellular matrix proteins (S1B Fig). The different adhesion properties of metastatic cancer cells and Jurkat cells might be a result of the distinct integrin expression pattern of each cell line. MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells express α2β1-and α3β1-integrins, which represent collagen receptors [43, 44] , while Jurkat cells express α4β1-integrins but lack α2β1-, α3β1-integrins [44] . α4β1integrins are receptors for VCAM-1 and fibronectin [35] and it has been shown that Jurkat cells interact with human endothelial cells that express VCAM-1 after cytokine treatment or cells transfected with VCAM-1 [45] . Our results are in line with previous studies showing that α2β1-and α3β1-integrin expressing MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells were able to rapidly attach to collagen in the cortical bone matrix. In contrast, Jurkat cells were not able to adhere [44] and might preferentially interact with cell adhesion molecules rather than with ECM proteins. α2β1-and α3β1-integrins can additionally act as laminin receptors [46] and at least α3β1integrins recognize fibronectin [46, 47] . Though expressing receptors for fibronectin and laminin, MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells adhered to fibronectin to a much lesser extent and did not adhere to laminin, probably due to lower affinities to these extracellular matrix components. Importantly, v-ATPase inhibition by archazolid increased the surface levels of the extracellular matrix component collagen, which might explain that the increase of MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells onto archazolid-treated HUVECs is independent of endothelial cell adhesion molecules. By performing a live cell proteolysis assay, Cavallo-Medved et al. demonstrated ECM degradation, in particular of gelatin and collagen IV, in association with active cathepsin B in caveolae of endothelial cells during tube formation [40] . In addition, recent studies reported that v-ATPase inhibition impairs the activity of cathepsin B in cancer cells [28, 36] . Therefore, we suggested that the accumulation of collagen on the endothelial surface might be a consequence of impaired cathepsin B activity or expression in endothelial cells. In fact, we confirmed the impairment of cathepsin B activity by archazolid as the expression levels of the mature active form of this enzyme was strongly reduced. Cathepsin B is synthesized as preprocathepsin B on membrane-bound ribosomes. Following transport to the Golgi apparatus, the preprocathepsin B is glycosylated with mannose-containing oligosaccharides. The targeting of procathepsin B to lysosomes is mannose-6-phosphate receptor-dependent and its dissociation from the receptor as well as its proteolytic processing into mature cathepsin B requires acidification of the compartment [48] . In cancer cells v-ATPase inhibition by archazolid impaired the mannose-6-phosphate receptor-mediated trafficking from the trans-Golgi network to prelysosomal compartments resulting in a decrease of active lysosomal proteases like cathepsin B [28] . We assumed that the archazolid-induced decrease in cathepsin B activity and expression was based on the same mechanism. Interestingly, overexpression of cathepsin B attenuated the archazolid-induced adhesion of breast cancer cells onto endothelial cells, indicating that the adhesion negatively correlates with the expression of cathepsin B. As cathepsin B can also degrade other extracellular matrix components such as fibronectin and laminin [38, 49] , v-ATPase inhibition could lead to an accumulation of these proteins and an increased adhesion of cells expressing fibronectin or laminin receptors. However, we did not focus on these ECM components since they were not relevant for the adhesion of MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 cells. These cells predominantly adhered to collagen, while the adhesion of Jurkat cells is mostly independent from the ECM proteins collagen, fibronectin or laminin (S1B Fig). Interestingly [50] . In hepatic cancer cells, archazolid reduces Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling by altering the membrane composition and fluidity [51] . We assume that archazolid affects endothelial cells in a similar way leading to inhibition of Ras signaling and, therefore, reduced transendothelial migration of MDA-MB-231 cells. Taken together, our study shows that archazolid reduces the activity and expression of cathepsin B in endothelial cells. As a result, the amount of collagen on the surface of endothelial cells was significantly upregulated, which finally resulted in an increased adhesion of the β1-integrin-expressing metastatic cancer cell lines MDA-MB-231 and PC-3 onto archazolidtreated endothelial cells, whereas the adhesion of non-metastatic Jurkat cells was unaffected. This study shows that the v-ATPase plays an important role in regulating the adhesion of cells expressing receptors for extracellular matrix components. Archazolid represents a promising tool to elucidate the role of v-ATPase in endothelial cells. Moreover, we for the first time linked the function of v-ATPase to the adhesion and transmigration of tumor cells onto endothelial cells as well as to the remodeling of the extracellular matrix on the surface of endothelial cells. The fact that the adhesion of metastatic tumor cells onto endothelial cells is increased while their transendothelial migration is reduced upon inhibition of endothelial v-ATPase by archazolid further supports the view of archazolid as a potential anti-metastatic compound.

What does angiogenesis depend on?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

When does the camel calving season?

Role of S-Palmitoylation on IFITM5 for the Interaction with FKBP11 in Osteoblast Cells https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3776769/ Tsukamoto, Takashi; Li, Xianglan; Morita, Hiromi; Minowa, Takashi; Aizawa, Tomoyasu; Hanagata, Nobutaka; Demura, Makoto 2013-09-18 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0075831 License:cc-by Abstract: Recently, one of the interferon-induced transmembrane (IFITM) family proteins, IFITM3, has become an important target for the activity against influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. In this protein, a post-translational modification by fatty acids covalently attached to cysteine, termed S-palmitoylation, plays a crucial role for the antiviral activity. IFITM3 possesses three cysteine residues for the S-palmitoylation in the first transmembrane (TM1) domain and in the cytoplasmic (CP) loop. Because these cysteines are well conserved in the mammalian IFITM family proteins, the S-palmitoylation on these cysteines is significant for their functions. IFITM5 is another IFITM family protein and interacts with the FK506-binding protein 11 (FKBP11) to form a higher-order complex in osteoblast cells, which induces the expression of immunologically relevant genes. In this study, we investigated the role played by S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in its interaction with FKBP11 in the cells, because this interaction is a key process for the gene expression. Our investigations using an established reporter, 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA), and an inhibitor for the S-palmitoylation, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP), revealed that IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated in addition to IFITM3. Specifically, we found that cysteine residues in the TM1 domain and in the CP loop were S-palmitoylated in IFITM5. Then, we revealed by immunoprecipitation and western blot analyses that the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 was inhibited in the presence of 2BP. The mutant lacking the S-palmitoylation site in the TM1 domain lost the interaction with FKBP11. These results indicate that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 promotes the interaction with FKBP11. Finally, we investigated bone nodule formation in osteoblast cells in the presence of 2BP, because IFITM5 was originally identified as a bone formation factor. The experiment resulted in a morphological aberration of the bone nodule. This also indicated that the S-palmitoylation contributes to bone formation. Text: The interferon-induced transmembrane (IFITM) protein family (also known as the Fragilis family in mice) is a part of the dispanin family [1] and is composed of double-transmembrane α-helices connected by a cytoplasmic (CP) loop and extracellular (EC) amino-and carboxyl-terminal polypeptide sequences (Figure 1-A) . The IFITM proteins are evolutionarily conserved in vertebrates [2] . Recent genomic research has revealed that there are 5 IFITM members in humans (IFITM1, 2, 3, 5 and 10) and 7 members in mice (IFITM1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 10). These proteins play roles in diverse biological processes, such as germ cell maturation during gastrulation (IFITM1-3) [3] [4] [5] , cell-to-cell adhesion (IFITM1) [6] [7] [8] , antiviral activity (IFITM1-3) [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] , and bone formation (IFITM5) [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] , although the detailed functions of IFITM6, 7, and 10 are unknown at present. In particular, IFITM3 has been a target of intensive studies on its activity against influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and internalization [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] . In 2010, Dr. Yount and co-workers reported that the antiviral activity of IFITM3 is dependent on S-palmitoylation on the protein [10] . The S-palmitoylation [23] is a post-translational modification on proteins by C 16 saturated-fatty acids (palmitic acids) covalently attached to certain cysteine residues via a thioester linkage (Figure 1-B) . The modification is reversibly catalyzed by protein acyltransferases and acylprotein thioesterases, and confers unique properties to the protein, such as membrane binding and targeting, immunoreactivity, Amino-acid sequence alignment of IFITM5, IFITM1, IFITM2, and IFITM3 derived from mice. The conserved residues are highlighted in black. The three conserved cysteines are highlighted in red and numbered based on the sequence of IFITM5 (top) and IFITM3 (bottom). The residues unique in IFITM5 are highlighted in gray. The first and the second transmembrane domains, the extracellular sequences, and the cytoplasmic loop are indicated by arrows and denoted as TM1 and TM2, EC, and the CP loop, respectively. The TM domains were predicted by SOSUI. The aspartates at the C-terminal region in IFITM5 are shown in blue. B) The schematic illustration of the protein S-palmitoylation. The C 16 -palmitic acid is attached to cysteine via a thioester linkage. The palmitoylation and depalmitoylation are catalyzed by protein acyltransferases and acylprotein thioesterases, respectively. In this study, hydroxylamine, NH 2 OH, was used to reduce the thioester linkage. C) The amino acid sequence identity (similarity) among IFITM5, IFITM1, IFITM2, and IFITM3 is summarized. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075831.g001 and protein-protein interaction. The authors revealed that IFITM3 is S-palmitoylated on three membrane proximal cysteines, Cys71 and Cys72 in the first transmembrane (TM1) domain, and Cys105 in the CP loop (Figure 1-A) [10] . In addition, IFITM3 lacking the S-palmitoylation is not clustered in the cell membrane and significantly diminishes the antiviral activity. Moreover, the cysteines in IFITM2, Cys70, Cys71, and Cys104 are also palmitoylated in the same manner, which affects the intracellular localization [24] . A resent study has revealed that murine IFITM1 has four cysteine residues (Cys49, Cys50, Cys83, and Cys103) for the S-palmitoylation, which is required for the antiviral activity and the protein stability [25] . The other IFITM family members also possess these cysteines (Figure 1-A) , and thus the role of the Spalmitoylation on the cysteines should be significant for the functions of IFITM proteins. Here, we focused on IFITM5, which is also known as bonerestricted IFITM-like (BRIL) protein [18] . Among the IFITM family proteins, IFITM5 is unique. (i) Expression of IFITM5: Unlike the other IFITM family proteins, the expression of IFITM5 is not induced by interferons because the region upstream of the ifitm5 gene lacks the interferon regulatory elements [26] . Furthermore, the expression of IFITM5 is mostly restricted to osteoblast cells [18, 19, 27] , while the other IFITM proteins are expressed ubiquitously (ii). Amino-acid sequence similarity: The amino acid sequence of IFITM5 is relatively dissimilar to IFITM1-3 proteins (~ 65% similarity), while IFITM1-3 proteins share ~ 85% similarity with each other (Figure 1 -C). In addition, IFITM5 has an aspartate-rich domain in the C-terminal region, which could be involved in calcium binding (Figure 1 -A) [26] . (iii) Role of IFITM5 in bone formation: The expression of IFITM5 is associated with mineralization during the bone formation process in osteoblast cells [18] [19] [20] [21] . Previous studies have confirmed the expression of IFITM5 in bone tissues in mice, rats, humans and tammar wallabies [2] . The ifitm5-gene knockout mice have smaller bones [19] . Moreover, the knockdown of the ifitm5 gene by small hairpin RNA induces a decrease in bone nodule formation, whereas overexpression of the gene in UMR106 cells has been shown to increase calcium uptake and bone nodule formation [18] . (iv) Role of IFITM5 for immune activity: Recent studies have revealed that IFITM5 interacts with the FK506-binding protein 11 (FKBP11) to form IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-the prostaglandin F2 receptor negative regulator (FPRP) complex [28] . When the complex is formed, the expressions of 5 interferon-induced genes are induced, including bone marrow stromal cell antigen 2 (Bst2), interferon inducible protein 1 (Irgm), interferoninduced protein with tetratricopeptide repeats 3 (Ifit3), b(2)microglobulin (B2m), and MHC class I antigen gene. Consequently, these results indicate that IFITM5 is involved not only in the bone formation but also in the immune system activity. In this study, we investigated the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 and its role in the interaction with FKBP11 in mouse osteoblast cells. Cells transfected by a plasmid DNA encoding mouse IFITM5 were grown in the presence of an established chemical reporter, 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA) [29, 30] , or an inhibitor for the S-palmitoylation, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP) [31] . The biochemical assays using these compounds revealed that the wild-type IFITM5 is S-palmitoylated. To identify the Spalmitoylation site in IFITM5, we prepared cysteine-substituted mutants, IFITM5-C86A, -C52A/C53A, and -C52A/53A/86A (Cys-less). The chemical reporter assay suggested that at least two out of three cysteines in IFITM5 are S-palmitoylated. The interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 was examined by immunoprecipitation assay, resulting in the loss of the interaction in the presence of 2BP. The same result was obtained in the two mutants, C52A/C53A and Cys-less. These results suggested that the S-palmitoylation on Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain of IFITM5 is necessary for the interaction with FKBP11. On the other hand, Cys86 in the CP loop of IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated but not involved in the interaction. Because this interaction is important for the immunologically relevant gene expression, it was indicated that the role of the S-palmitoylation is to promote the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 and to regulate the immune activity in the osteoblast cells. The possible interaction mechanism and the effect of the S-palmitoylation on the bone nodule formation will be discussed. For mammalian cell expression, plasmid vectors of wild-type IFITM5 (IFITM5-WT) and FLAG-fused FKBP11 (FKBP11-FLAG) were constructed by inserting the cloned genes into a pBApo-CMV Neo expression vector (Takara Bio, Shiga, Japan). The details of the recombinant DNA constructs were the same as described previously [19] . The genes of IFITM5 mutants (IFITM5-C86A, -C52A/53A, and -C52A/C53A/C86A (Cys-less)) were prepared using a QuikChange site-directed mutagenesis kit (Stratagene, La Jolla, CA). The plasmid vectors of FLAG-fused IFITM5-WT, -C52A/53A, and Cys-less were constructed by inserting the cloned genes into the pBApo-CMV Neo expression vector. For E. coli cell expression, the plasmid vector of IFITM5-WT was constructed by inserting the cloned gene into a pET22b (Novagen, Madison, WI) expression vector. The forward primer 5'-GGAATTCCATATGGACACTTCATATCCCCGTG-3' and the reverse primer 5'-CCGCTCGAGGTTATAGTCCTCCTCATCAAACTTGG-3' were used to amplify the gene encoding the entire IFITM5 from the plasmid vector for mammalian cell expression described above. The underlined letters denote an NdeI and an XhoI cleavage site, respectively. The plasmids of IFITM5 mutants were prepared using a QuikChange site-directed mutagenesis kit. The sense and anti-sense primers used were 5'-GGCAGTATGGCTCCAAAGCCAAGGCGTACAACATCCTGG CTGC-3' and 5'-GCAGCCAGGATGTTGTACGCCTTGGCTTTGGAGCCATACT GCC-3' for IFITM5-C86A; and 5'-GCACGATGTACCTGAATCTGGCGGCGCTTGGATTCCTGG CGC-3' and 5'-GCGCCAGGAATCCAAGCGCCGCCAGATTCAGGTACATCG TGC-3' for IFITM5-C52A/C53A, respectively (Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO). Osteoblast-like MC3T3 cells were provided by the RIKEN, Cell Bank (RCB 1126). The procedures for cell culture, transfection, and protein expression were the same as reported previously. When necessary, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP; Wako, Osaka, Japan) and 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA; Sigma-Aldrich) were dissolved in 99.5% dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO; Wako) and added to differentiation medium at concentrations of 100 μM and 50 μM in less than 0.1% DMSO, respectively [30, 31] . Wild-type and mutant IFITM5 proteins were also produced using an E. coli recombinant expression system. E. coli BL21(DE3) cells transformed by the expression plasmid were grown at 37°C in LB medium containing 50 μg/mL ampicillin. After four-hour induction by 1 mM isopropyl β-Dthiogalactopyranoside (IPTG), cells were harvested by centrifugation (6,400 × g for 10 min at 4°C). The cells were suspended in 50 mM Tris-HCl buffer (pH 8) and disrupted by a French press (Ohtake, Tokyo, Japan) (100 MPa × 4 times). The crude membrane fraction was collected by ultracentrifugation (178,000 × g for 90 min at 4°C). The collected fraction was solubilized with 1.5% n-dodecyl-β-Dmaltopyranoside (DDM) (Dojindo Lab, Kumamoto, Japan) in 50 mM Tris-HCl, pH 8, containing 0.3 M NaCl and 5 mM imidazole. After the ultracentrifugation, the supernatant was incubated with Ni 2+ -NTA agarose resin (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The resin was applied to a chromatography column and washed with 50 mM imidazole containing 50 mM Tris-HCl (pH 8), 0.3 M NaCl and 0.1% DDM. The DDM-solubilized IFITM5 was collected by elution with the same buffer containing 0.3 M imidazole. The sample media were replaced by the appropriate buffer solution by two passages over a PD-10 column (GE Healthcare UK, Ltd., Amersham Place, England). The experimental details are described in previous reports [19, 28] . Briefly, total proteins were extracted from the osteoblast cells which co-expressed IFITM5 and FKBP11-FLAG using a total protein extraction kit (BioChain Institute Inc., Newark, CA). Then, the cell lysate was incubated with anti-FLAG M2 agarose gel (Sigma-Aldrich) at 4°C for 2 h. To recover FKBP11-FLAG, 500 ng/μL 3 × FLAG peptide (Sigma-Aldrich) dissolved in Tris-buffered saline was added to the collected gel at 4°C for 1 h. The recovered proteins and the cell lysate containing total proteins were analyzed by SDS-PAGE (15% ePAGEL; ATTO, Tokyo, Japan) and western blot. The anti-IFITM5 polyclonal antibody, which was prepared from the amino-terminal peptide sequence (TSYPREDPRAPSSRC), and anti-FLAG monoclonal antibody (Sigma-Aldrich) were used as primary antibodies. The HRP-conjugated goat anti-rabbit IgG (H+L) (Zymed Laboratories, San Francisco, CA) and goat anti-mouse IgG (H+L) (Sigma-Aldrich) antibodies were used as secondary antibodies for the anti-IFITM5 and anti-FLAG primary antibodies, respectively. The proteins were detected by chemiluminescent reaction (MercK-Millipore, Billerica, MA). The cell lysate extracted from the osteoblast cells metabolically labeled by 17-ODYA was incubated with anti-FLAG M2 agarose gel to obtain purified FLAG-fused IFITM5 proteins. The 17-ODYA-labeled proteins were chemically labeled with azide-PEG 3 -5(6)-carboxytetramethylrhodamine (TAMRA-azide; Click Chemistry Tools, Scottsdale, AZ) with reference to previous studies [10, 29, 30, 32] and the manufacturer's guide. The proteins separated by SDS-PAGE were visualized using a 532-nm laser for excitation and the fluorescence by TAMRA (565 nm) was detected using a 575nm long-path filter (Typhoon FLA 9000; GE Healthcare). The subcultured osteoblast MC3T3 cells were seeded at a density of 5,000 cells/cm 2 in 40 mm dishes and cultured in α-Modified Eagle's Medium (α-MEM; Sigma-Aldrich) containing 10% (v/v) fetal bovine serum (FBS; Nichirei Biosciences Inc., Tokyo, Japan). On the next day, this was replaced with differentiation medium, containing 2 mM glycerophosphate and 50 μg/mL sodium ascorbate at final concentrations, to induce osteoblast differentiation. When necessary, 100 μM 2BP in less than 0.1% DMSO, or 0.1% DMSO alone was added to the differentiation medium at final concentrations. All cultures were incubated at 37°C in a humidified atmosphere containing 5% CO 2 for 27 days. Mineralized nodules were stained with Alizarin Red S (Sigma-Aldrich). The standard staining procedure was used. The mineralized nodules were checked every three days. To identify the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5, the osteoblast cells harboring the plasmid DNA encoding IFITM5-WT were cultured in the absence and presence of 2BP, which inhibits the S-palmitoylation (Figure 2-A) [31] . Then, the cell lysate containing total protein was extracted for use in the SDS-PAGE and western blot analyses. For purposes of comparison, E. coli cells were also cultured in the absence of 2BP and the cell lysate was extracted. Figure 2 -B shows the results of the western blot assay for IFITM5-WT expressed in the osteoblast and the E. coli cells. In the osteoblast cells, IFITM5-WT exhibited a single band near the 17.4 kDa molecular-mass marker (see lane 1) in the absence of 2BP. However, in the presence of 2BP (see lane 4), the band appeared at a lower position than that in the absence of 2BP (lane 1). These results suggested that IFITM5-WT has high and low molecular-mass forms in the absence and presence of 2BP, respectively. The S-palmitoylation is a reversible reaction, and therefore is depalmitoylated by a strong reductant such as hydroxylamine [10] . Following hydroxylamine treatment (see lane 2), the band appeared at the same position as in the presence of 2BP (lane 4). In prokaryote E. coli cells, the post-translational modification S-Palmitoylation on IFITM5 PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org does not occur. Hence, the band was also observed at the same lower position (see lane 3). In the case of IFITM3, the palmitoylation was also reported to induce a change in mobility on electrophoresis, just as in our present results [10] . For direct observation of the S-palmitoylation, an established chemical reporter, 17-ODYA (Figure 2-C) , was used. The osteoblast cells harboring the plasmid encoding IFITM5-WT were cultured in the presence of 17-ODYA to label the protein metabolically. Following the extraction and the purification of the cell lysate, the labeled IFITM5-WT was ligated with TAMRA-azide according to the Cu(I)-catalyzed [3+2] azidealkyne cycloaddition method [10, 29, 30, 32 ]. An in-gel fluorescence image of the 17-ODYA-TAMRA-labeled IFITM5-WT (see lane 2 in Figure 2 -D) showed that IFITM5 was Spalmitoylated in the osteoblast cells. The FLAG-tag attached to IFITM5 has no influence on the modification and chemical labeling (lanes 1 and 5). In addition, after the hydroxylamine treatment (see lane 6), the fluorescence became weak because of the dissociation of 17-ODYA from IFITM5, which was the same mechanism as the dissociation of the palmitic acid from IFITM5 by reduction as described above (lane 2 of Figure 2-B) . Therefore, we concluded that the IFITM5 expressed in the native osteoblast cells is S-palmitoylated. In addition, the bands corresponding to the high and the low molecular-mass forms shown in western blot analysis were tentatively assigned to the S-palmitoylated and the depalmitoylated forms, respectively. As described above in the Introduction, cysteine residues are the substrate for S-palmitoylation. IFITM5 possesses three cysteines, Cys52 and Cys53 in the TM1 domain, and Cys86 in the CP loop (Figure 1-A) . All of these cysteines are highly conserved among the mammalian IFITM family proteins (Figure 3-A) . To identify the modification site in IFITM5, we prepared cysteine-substituted mutants, IFITM5-C52A/C53A, -C86A, and -C52A/C53A/C86A (Cys-less). The osteoblast cells harboring each plasmid were cultured in the absence of 2BP, and then the cell lysate was extracted. Figure 3 -B shows the results of the western blot detecting the expression of all the mutants in the osteoblast cells. In the C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (see lanes 2 and 4), the low molecular-mass form was detected. This result indicates that either Cys52 or Cys53 is involved in the S-palmitoylation. In addition, as shown in Figure 2 -D, strong and weak fluorescence were detected in the C52A/ C53A mutant in the absence and presence of hydroxylamine (lanes 3 and 7) , respectively, but not in the Cys-less mutant (lanes 4 and 8) . These results suggested that the rest of the cysteine in the C52A/C53A mutant, Cys86, is S-palmitoylated and the Cys-less mutant completely lost the S-palmitoylation because all the cysteines were substituted. Therefore, we concluded that Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated. In addition, it was found that the S-palmitoylation on the TM1 domain has a major effect on the mobility in the gel (lower panel of Figure 2 -D and Figure 3-B) . Therefore, we hereafter refer to the high and low molecular-mass forms as the TM1palmitoylated and the TM1-depalmitoylated forms, respectively. Finally, we reassigned the bands shown in the western blot analysis as follows: IFITM5-WT is fully palmitoylated, the C86A mutant is partially palmitoylated at Cys52 and/or Cys53, the C52A/C53A mutant is partially palmitoylated at Cys86, and the Cys-less mutant is completely depalmitoylated. Previous studies have revealed that IFITM5 interacts with FKBP11 [19] . FKBP11 belongs to the FK506-binding protein family and has a transmembrane domain. The interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 is important for the immune activity because formation of the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex induces the expression of interferon-induced genesnamely, the Bst2, Irgm, Ifit3, B2m, and MHC class I antigen gene [28] . To investigate the effect of the S-palmitoylation on the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11, we carried out an immunoprecipitation assay. The osteoblast cells co-transfected by the plasmids encoding IFITM5-WT and FKBP11-FLAG were cultured in the absence and the presence of 2BP. Then, the extracted cell-lysate was incubated with anti-FLAG agarose gel. The gel was washed several times. Finally, the proteins were competitively eluted by the addition of FLAG peptide. If IFITM5 interacted with FKBP11, it was expected that IFITM5 The conserved cysteines are highlighted in orange and numbered. In the lower panel, the numbers given in parenthesis correspond to the residual number for IFITM2. For the calculation of probability, a total of 23 IFITM2, 23 IFITM3, and 17 IFITM5 sequences derived from mammalian species in the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database were used. Sequence alignment was carried out using CLUSTALW. Sequence logos were generated using WEBLOGO 3. B) Western blot for the wild-type and cysteine-substituted mutants of IFITM5 expressed in the osteoblast cells. For detection, the anti-IFITM5 antibody was used as a primary antibody. The upper arrow indicates that C52 and/or C53 in the TM1 domain is Spalmitoylated (lanes 1 and 3) . The C52A/C53A (lane 2) and Cys-less (lane 4) mutants are partially and completely depalmitoylated. The experiment was carried out 2 times. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075831.g003 would be obtained during this step and detected by immunoblotting. Figure 4 -A shows the results of the western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of IFITM5-WT with FKBP-FLAG. The band corresponding to FKBP11 appeared in all the lanes (upper panel). Lanes 1 and 2 are controls to ensure that IFITM5 and FKBP11 are both contained in the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. The controls also ensured that IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated in the absence of 2BP (see lane 1), whereas IFITM5 was not S-palmitoylated in the presence of 2BP (see lane 2). After the immunoprecipitation, a single band corresponding to the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 appeared in the absence of 2BP (see lane 3), indicating the interaction of the Spalmitoylated IFITM5 with FKBP11. However, in the presence of 2BP, no band corresponding to IFITM5 appeared (see lane 4) , indicating that the two molecules do not interact with each other. These results suggest that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 contributes to the interaction with FKBP11. Next, we further investigated the relationship between the Spalmitoylation and the interaction with FKBP11 by using the IFITM5 mutants described above. The osteoblast cells cotransfected by the plasmids encoding IFITM5 mutants (C52A/ C53A, C86A, and Cys-less) and FKBP11-FLAG were cultured. The immunoprecipitation assay was carried out in the same way as described above. Figure 4 -B shows the results of the western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type and the IFITM5 mutants with FKBP11. Figure 4 -C shows the results of the control experiment using the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. As described in the previous section 3-3, the band corresponding to FKBP11 appeared in all the lanes (upper panels) because the immunoprecipitation was carried out using the anti-FLAG agarose gel. In the lower panel of Figure 4 -B, single bands were observed for the IFITM5-WT and -C86A mutant (lanes 1 and 3) but not for the -C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (lanes 2 and 4) . This result indicates that the wild-type and the C86A mutant interact with FKBP11, whereas the other two mutants do not. Interestingly, this tendency mirrored the trend for the S-palmitoylation profiles, which means that Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain of the IFITM5-WT and -C86A mutants is S-palmitoylated, whereas these residues are not S-palmitoylated in the C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (see Figures 2-D, 3 -B and the lower panel of Figure 4 -C). Because the S-palmitoylation contributes to the IFITM5-FKBP11 interaction, as described in the previous section 3-3 (also in Figure 4-A) , the results of Figure 4 -B suggest that the mutants which lost the S-palmitoylation site(s), Cys52 and/or Cys53, are not able to interact with FKBP11. In other words, the S-palmitoylation on these cysteines is necessary for the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11. As described above in the Introduction, previous studies have revealed that IFITM5 also contributes to bone formation [18] [19] [20] [21] . Therefore, we investigated the influence of Spalmitoylation on the bone nodule formation in osteoblast cells, in which native IFITM5 is expressed. Figure 5 shows the time-dependent nodule formation in the absence and the presence of 2BP ( Figure 5-A and -B) . Figure 5 -C shows the results of the control trial to verify the effect of DMSO, which was used as the solvent for 2BP, on the nodule formation. The mineralized nodule was stained with Alizarin Red, which reacts with deposited calcium. In Figure 5 -D, the area of the mineralized nodule was plotted against experimental time. In the absence of 2BP (Figure 5-A, -C, and -D) , the mineralization was started 15 days after the initiation of the cell differentiation (Day 0). On the other hand, in the presence of 2BP ( Figure 5-B and -D) , the nodule was formed on Day 12. The halftime for the maximum mineralization in the presence of 2BP was estimated to be 7 days earlier than that in the absence of 2BP (Figure 5-D) . In addition, differences in the form of the mineralized nodules were observed. Figure 5 -E shows an enlarged view of each nodule on Day 21. The stained nodules were diffused in the presence of 2BP (panel b), whereas in the absence of 2BP the nodules formed a large cluster (panels a and c). Therefore, our observations in this study suggested that the S-palmitoylation affects the bone nodule formation in the osteoblast cells. In this study, we confirmed the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 in the osteoblast cells, which was the same as that previously reported for IFITM3 and IFITM2. As reported previously, in IFITM3 and IFITM2, which share 85% sequence similarity (Figure 1-C) , two cysteines in the TM1 domain (Cys71 and Cys72 for IFITM3, Cys70 and Cys71 for IFITM2) and one cysteine in the CP loop (Cys105 for IFITM3, Cys104 for IFITM2) are all S-palmitoylated in cells [10, 24] . On the other hand, although IFITM5 shares 68% and 66% sequence similarity to IFITM3 and IFITM2, respectively, more than one cysteine in the TM1 domain (Cys52 or Cys53) and one cysteine in the CP loop (Cys86) are S-palmitoylated. Taking into account the high conservation of three cysteines in the IFITM proteins (Figures 1-A and 3-A) , all the cysteines in IFITM5 may be involved in the S-palmitoylation just as in the case of IFITM3 and IFITM2 [10, 24] . The roles of the S-palmitoylation on IFITM3 have been studied intensively, and the S-palmitoylation has been shown to be crucial for the correct positioning in the membrane and the resistance to viral infection and internalization [10] (the roles are summarized in Figure 6 -A and discussed in detail below). A recent study has revealed that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM2 is also important for the protein clustering in the membrane [24] . However, we do not know the role of the Spalmitoylation of IFITM5 for the clustering in the membrane at present because we have not yet succeeded in obtaining a proper antibody for immunohistochemistry, despite our allocating much time to the search and considering a considerable number of antibodies. Dr. Hanagata and co-workers previously reported that IFITM5 lacking the TM1 domain and the CP loop, which and IFITM5 (lower panels), the anti-FLAG and the anti-IFITM5 antibodies were used as primary antibodies, respectively. Arrows indicate the existence of each protein and the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5. A) Western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type IFITM5 with the FLAG-fused FKBP11 (FKBP11-FLAG) in the osteoblast cells in the absence and the presence of 2BP (denoted as "-" and "+", respectively). Lanes 1 and 2 are the results for the control trials used to verify the existence of IFITM5 and FKBP11 before the immunoprecipitation, and Lanes 3 and 4 show the results after the immunoprecipitation. The experiment was repeated 3 times. B) Western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type and the cysteine-substituted mutants of IFITM5 with FKBP11-FLAG in the osteoblast cells. The band corresponding to FLAG peptide is not shown because of the smaller molecular-mass of FLAG peptide relative to FKBP11-FLAG. C) The control experiment of Figure 4 -B used to verify that IFITM5 and FKBP11 were both present in the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. The experiment was repeated 2 times. A) The functional mechanism of IFITM3 is summarized from previous studies. (i) IFITM3 is S-palmitoylated at Cys71, Cys72, and Cys105, (ii) which induces clustering and correct positioning in the membrane, (iii) resulting in the antiviral activity against influenza virus. B) The functional mechanism of IFITM5 is summarized by combining the results from the present and the previous studies. (i) Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylation allows IFITM5 to interact with FKBP11 in the osteoblast cells (iii). The dissociation of CD9 from the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex is induced by formation of the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex and leads to the immunologically relevant gene expression. IFITM5 also contributes to the bone formation, but it is unknown which states as described in (i)-(iii) are important for the bone formation at present.At present, no interactive protein has been identified in IFITM3 and IFITM2. On the other hand, IFITM5 interacts with the partner protein, FKBP11, and the S-palmitoylation clearly makes a significant contribution to the interaction. Therefore, IFITM5 forms a hetero-oligomer in the cell membrane for its physiological function. contain the relevant modification sites, lost the ability to interact with FKBP11 [19] . In the present study, we determined that the S-palmitoylation on Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain is necessary for the interaction. From these results, we speculate that Cys52 and Cys53 face toward the interaction surface with FKBP11, and therefore IFITM5 and FKBP11 interact with each other through the palmitic acid(s) attached to the cysteine(s) (summarized in Figure 6 -B, discussed in detail later). Our investigation revealed that Cys86 is involved in the Spalmitoylation but does not contribute to the interaction with FKBP11. We speculate that some other residues in the CP loop located near the TM1 domain make some contribution to the interaction. Previous investigations also revealed that IFITM5 expressed in the heterologous fibroblast NIH3T3 cells exhibited direct interactions with CD81, the B cell receptor-associated protein 31 (BCAP31), and the hydroxysteroid (17-beta) dehydrogenase 7 (HSD17b7). These three proteins bind to the IFITM5 without the S-palmitoylation (low molecular-mass form; see Figure 3 -b in ref [19] . and Figure 1 -B in ref [28] .). In the fibroblast cells, the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 is insufficient [19] . These interactions are not observed in the native osteoblast cells, and therefore are nonspecific. Taking these facts into consideration, we speculate that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 promotes the specific interaction with FKBP11 in the osteoblast cells. The role played by the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in immune activity of the osteoblast cells will be discussed by combining the results from the present and the previous studies. A specific interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 should be necessary to form the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex. CD81, also known as TAPA-1, is a member of the tetraspanin membrane protein family and a component of the B-cell coreceptor complex which mediates the B-cell signaling for immune responses. When forming this complex, CD9, a partner protein with CD81, dissociates from the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex and consequently induces the osteoblastspecific expression of the interferon-induced genes, Bst2, Irgm, Ifit3, B2m, and the MHC class I antigen gene [28] . If the Spalmitoylation-mediated specific interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 were lost, the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex would not be formed, and consequently the interferon-induced gene expression would be inhibited because CD9 would remain associated with the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex. In this respect, we speculate that IFITM5 is involved in the immune system activity in the osteoblast cells and the interaction of the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 with FKBP11 regulates the immune activity. In addition, it was suggested that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 contributes to the bone nodule formation, including morphology and time for mineralization, in the osteoblast cells ( Figure 5 ). It is difficult to conclude at present that the lack of the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 causes the diffusion of the bone nodules (panel b of Figure 5 -E); we can say, however, that IFITM5 will probably not be S-palmitoylated in the cells in the presence of 2BP. While 2BP is commonly used as an inhibitor of palmitoylation, it also targets many metabolic enzymes [33, 34] . Thus, it is also difficult to interpret the results of the long-term incubation of the osteoblast cells in the presence of 2BP. In any case, these are interesting and key observations in terms of clarifying the role played by the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in bone formation, and further studies are required. Figure 6 describes a possible mechanism of the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 and the role of IFITM5 in the osteoblast cell function by means of a comparison with IFITM3. In the case of IFITM3, as shown in Figure 6 -A, the following are observed. (i) The three cysteines are all S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylation leads to the clustering and the correct positioning of IFITM3 molecules in the membrane (iii). The Spalmitoylation and the following clustering are crucial for the resistance to the influenza virus. When IFITM3 lacks the Spalmitoylation, the IFITM3 molecules do not cluster, which leads to the significant decrease in the antiviral activity. On the other hand, Figure 6 -B shows that the following observations are made in the case of IFITM5. (i) Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylated IFITM5 is able to interact specifically with FKBP11. The interaction is presumed to be mediated by the palmitic acid(s) attached to the cysteine(s) facing toward the interaction surface on FKBP11. Cys86 is involved in the S-palmitoylation but not in the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11. At present, however, little is known about the role of the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 for the localization in the membrane. When the S-palmitoylation affects the localization of IFITM5 as in the case of IFITM3 [10] , the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 molecules should be localized in the membrane or the depalmitoylated molecules should be delocalized. The loss of the interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 could be due to a relocalization of the depalmitoylated IFITM5 that prevents its association with FKBP11 (iii). The Spalmitoylated IFITM5 interacts with the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex through FKBP11, which induces the dissociation of CD9 from the complex and the expression of 5 immunologically relevant genes. Finally, IFITM5 forms the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex. It is unknown at present which of the three states (i)~(iii) illustrated in Figure 6 -B is important for the bone mineralization of the osteoblast cells. The lack of the S-palmitoylation influences the interaction with FKBP11, which could account for the following complex formation and gene expression. In addition, the bone nodule formation is also affected. Note that the role of the Spalmitoylation has been involved in the bone formation [35] . It is indicated that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 plays roles not only for the regulation of the immune activity but also for the bone formation. In conclusion, we have revealed the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 and its role in the interaction with FKBP11. Not only the immune activity but also the bone mineralization in the osteoblast cells is affected by the S-palmitoylation. In general, the functional role of the S-palmitoylation is different for each protein [36] . For many proteins, the palmitoylation and depalmitoylation cycle is constitutive and regulated by enzymes. Based on the present results, it is difficult to address (i) whether the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 is constitutive or regulated, or (ii) when and where IFITM5 is S-palmitoylated in the osteoblast cells. Further studies are required and are currently underway.

What is IFITM?

Screening of FDA-Approved Drugs for Inhibitors of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Infection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5640845/ SHA: 1bd2f6497996fc0fccd8dffd7f84846d3d36f964 Authors: Wang, Shaobo; Liu, Yang; Guo, Jiao; Wang, Peilin; Zhang, Leike; Xiao, Gengfu; Wang, Wei Date: 2017-10-13 DOI: 10.1128/jvi.01055-17 License: cc-by Abstract: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), an arthropod-borne flavivirus, is a major cause of acute viral encephalitis in humans. No approved drug is available for the specific treatment of JEV infections, and the available vaccines are not effective against all clinical JEV isolates. In the study described here, a high-throughput screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV was performed. Five hit drugs that inhibited JEV infection with a selective index of >10 were identified. The antiviral activities of these five hit drugs against other flavivirus, including Zika virus, were also validated. As three of the five hit drugs were calcium inhibitors, additional types of calcium inhibitors that confirmed that calcium is essential for JEV infection, most likely during viral replication, were utilized. Adaptive mutant analysis uncovered that replacement of Q130, located in transmembrane domain 3 of the nonstructural NS4B protein, which is relatively conserved in flaviviruses, with R or K conferred JEV resistance to manidipine, a voltage-gated Ca(2+) channel (VGCC) inhibitor, without an apparent loss of the viral growth profile. Furthermore, manidipine was indicated to protect mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain, while it abrogated the histopathological changes associated with JEV infection. This study provides five antiflavivirus candidates and identifies cytoplasmic calcium to be a novel antiviral target for the treatment of JEV infection. The findings reported here provide therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. IMPORTANCE No approved therapy for the treatment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection is currently available. Repurposing of approved drugs would accelerate the development of a therapeutic stratagem. In this study, we screened a library of FDA-approved drugs and identified five hit drugs, especially calcium inhibitors, exerting antiflavivirus activity that blocked viral replication. The in vivo efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were investigated with a mouse model of JEV infection, and the viral target was identified by generating an adaptive mutant. Text: F laviviruses are taxonomically classified in the genus Flavivirus and family Flaviviridae. These viruses comprise over 70 different pathogens, such as Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus (DENV), West Nile virus (WNV), and yellow fever virus (YFV). Most flaviviruses are arthropod borne and cause public health problems worldwide (1) . The development and usage of vaccines against some flaviviruses, such as JEV, YFV, and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), have decreased the rates of morbidity and mortality from infections caused by these viruses (2) ; however, flavivirus-induced diseases are still pandemic, and few therapies beyond intensive supportive care are currently available. Flaviviruses have an approximately 11-kb positive-stranded RNA genome containing a single open reading frame (ORF) flanked by untranslated regions (UTRs) at both termini. The ORF encodes three structural proteins, including the capsid (C), membrane (premembrane [prM] and membrane [M] ), and envelope (E), and seven nonstructural proteins (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) (3) . These seven nonstructural proteins participate in viral replication, virion assembly, and virus escape from immune surveillance. To date, no specific antivirals with activity against flaviviruses are available. To address this, we conducted a screen of a library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs. Since flaviviruses are similar in structure and pathogenesis, we first utilized JEV as the prototype to screen the drug library and subsequently validated the antiviral activities with ZIKV, WNV, and DENV type 2 (DENV-2). The hit drugs identified in this study offer potential new therapies for the treatment of flavivirus infection and disease. Screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV infection. Recombinant viral particles (RVPs) with the luciferase-reporting replicon enveloped by the JEV structural proteins were used to select inhibitors, with a focus on those that inhibit virus entry and replication, by a high-throughput screening (HTS) assay (4, 5) . The number of genomic RNA copies of RVP was determined to be 8.4 ϫ 10 6 copies/ml by using a standard curve generated with plasmids carrying the infectious clone. The HTS assay conditions, including the seeding cell density and RVP dose, were optimized to be 10,000 cells per 96-well plate and 20 l (16 copies/cell) RVP for the infective dose, respectively. Under the optimized conditions, the signal-to-basal (S/B) ratio, coefficient of variation (CV), and Z= factor were 38,374, 2.8%, and 0.89, respectively, which demonstrated that the assay was robust and suitable for the large-scale screening of compounds. A schematic of the HTS assay is depicted in Fig. 1B . After three rounds of screening, five hits with a selective index (SI; which is equal to the 50% cytotoxic concentration [CC 50 [/50% inhibitory concentration [IC 50 ]) of Ͼ10 were selected. The CC 50 values of the hit drugs exhibited in Fig. 1B were similar to those previously published for diverse cell systems but determined using different toxicity assays (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) . Three of the hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were dihydropyridine (DHP) voltage-gated Ca 2ϩ channel (VGCC) antagonists, while pimecrolimus is an inhibitor of inflammatory cytokine secretion and nelfinavir mesylate is an HIV-1 protease blocker. All five drugs exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV RVP infection (Fig. 1C) . To validate the antiviral effect, hit drugs were purchased from other commercial sources and tested. In the reconfirmation screen, all hit drugs showed antiviral and cytotoxic effects similar to those found in the primary screen. Validation of hit drugs. To verify the results obtained by the luciferase reporter assays, we also investigated the antiviral effect of the five hit drugs on wild-type JEV strain AT31. As expected from the HTS assay, all five drugs robustly inhibited virus production, with a reduction of approximately 4 to 5 log units at the highest concentration and an approximately 1-log-unit decrease with 2.5 M the drugs (Fig. 2B) . A sharp decrease in JEV RNA levels was also detected (Fig. 2C) . The attenuated RNA levels in the high-dose, middle-dose, and low-dose groups were all above 40%. In particular, in the manidipine-treated group, the inhibitory effect was at least 80% compared to that for the control, which showed a strong inhibition of viral replication. Consistent with the inhibition of virus replication and production, expression of the viral structural protein prM was hardly detectable following treatment with the drugs at the high concentration (Fig. 2D) . Overall, the results in Fig. 2 confirmed that the five hit drugs inhibited JEV infection in a dose-dependent manner in vitro. Drugs inhibit JEV infection during viral RNA synthesis. Because RVPs, which have a natural virus-like envelope on the outside and a replicon on the inside, permitted the quantification of JEV productive entry and replication, a time-of-addition experiment was performed to investigate whether the hit drugs blocked the entry step or the replication step. As shown in Fig. 3B , no suppression of luciferase activity by any of the hit drugs was observed when they were used as treatments before infection or during infection or as a virucide, suggesting that these drugs do not inhibit JEV infection either by inactivating the virus directly or by blocking JEV entry. However, these drugs exerted fully inhibitory effects when they were added at 1 h postinfection, suggesting that viral replication was the stage at which these drugs showed inhibitory activity. To confirm this suggestion, we investigated the inhibitory effects of these drugs on the JEV replicon. The highest concentration of manidipine and nelfinavir mesylate tested in baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cells was adjusted to 5 M and 10 M, respectively. It was shown that all five drugs inhibited JEV RNA synthesis in a dosedependent manner, while neither drug inhibited the initial translation of replicon RNA (5, 14) (Fig. 3C) , confirming that these drugs inhibited JEV infection at the stage of replication. Hit drugs exhibit broad-spectrum antiflavivirus activity. In order to determine whether the antiviral activity of the five hit drugs extended to other flaviviruses, we explored their antiviral effect against ZIKV. Similar to the findings for JEV, the ZIKV titer was decreased by multiple log units when ZIKV was treated with a high concentration of each of the drugs (Fig. 4A) . Moreover, ZIKV exhibited a higher sensitivity to the two calcium channels inhibitors manidipine and cilnidipine than JEV, with no plaque formation being observed at 10 M. Consistent with this result, sharp decreases in the level of replication of ZIKV RNA and the level of expression of viral protein were also detected (Fig. 4A) . Notably, treatment with 5 M manidipine produced a 95% inhibition of viral replication, translation, and viral yields. Taken together, these results indicate that the hit drugs could effectively inhibit ZIKV infection. Since these drugs exhibited their anti-JEV effects at the stage of viral replication, we further tested the effects against WNV and DENV-2 by using WNV and DENV-2 replicons. Similar to the results for JEV, a dose-dependent reduction in the level of WNV replication was observed with the drug treatments. The same phenotype was observed for DENV-2 for all drugs except nelfinavir mesylate, which showed no effect at the concentrations tested ( Fig. 4B and C). Together, these results indicate that the five hit drugs are excellent candidates for broad-spectrum antiflavivirus treatment. Antiviral effect of calcium inhibitors. Since three hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were DHP VGCC inhibitors, we asked whether other calcium antagonists could block JEV infection. To address this question, we employed four different classes of inhibitors. Verapamil, a prototype phenylalkylamine (PAA) VGCC inhibitor (15) , exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV on both African Green monkey kidney (Vero) and human hepatocellular carcinoma (Huh-7) cells (Fig. 5) , which was consistent with the inhibitory effects of the DHP inhibitors, suggesting that calcium channels play an important role in JEV infection. Cyclosporine and 2-aminobiphenyl borate (2-APB), which inhibit the efflux of Ca 2ϩ from the mitochondrial and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) pool, respectively (16) (17) (18) (19) , were also found to block JEV infection effectively. Similarly, treatment with the cell-permeant Ca 2ϩ chelator 1,2-bis-(o-aminophenoxy)-ethane-N,N,N=,N=-tetraacetic acid, tetraacetoxymethyl ester (BAPTA-AM), could also suppress JEV infection. Taken together, we concluded that intracellular Ca 2ϩ is essential for JEV infection and cytoplasmic calcium is a potent target for antiflavivirus treatment. Selection and characterization of manidipine-resistant JEV. To identify the viral target of the calcium channel inhibitor, we selected a manidipine-resistant virus by serially passaging JEV in the presence of manidipine. Viruses from passage 20 (P20) showed robust resistance compared with the wild type (WT) (Fig. 6A ). When JEV from P20 was treated with 5 M or 10 M manidipine, the viral titer was about 10-and 100-fold higher than that of the WT, respectively. Individual virus clones were isolated, and two isolates were randomly selected and amplified. An amino acid substitution was observed in two isolated clones, resulting in a glutamine (Q)-to-arginine (R) switch at amino acid position 130 in transmembrane domain 3 (TMD3) of NS4B, i.e., position 2401 of the translated polyprotein in the JEV infectious cDNA clone (Fig. 6B ). Sequence alignment of NS4B indicated that Q130 was conserved in all flaviviruses except YFV, which possessed a lysine at that position (Fig. 6B) . The conserved Q130 of NS4B may account for the sensitivity of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2 to manidipine, as described above (Fig. 4) , while YFV showed resistance to the drug (data not shown). To confirm that the Q130R mutation did confer manidipine resistance and to investigate the role of Q130 in NS4B function, we produced JEV clones with the Q130R, Q130K, Q130E, or Q130A mutation by introducing the desired mutations into the infectious cDNA clone and rescuing the mutant viruses. To investigate the biological properties of the mutant viruses, we first examined the growth kinetics of the rescued viruses. As shown in Fig. 6C , all mutant viruses had an accumulation of infectious virions and reached the highest titer at 60 h postinfection. Infection of the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses resulted in growth curves similar to the growth curve for the WT (Fig. 6C) , while the Q130E and Q130A mutants produced smaller amounts of viruses between 24 and 60 h. Analysis of the plaque morphology revealed that the plaques of the Q130R, Q130K, and Q130E mutants were similar to the plaques of the WT, whereas the plaques of the Q130A mutant were smaller than those of the WT. We next investigated the sensitivity of the four mutant viruses to manidipine. As shown in Fig. 6D , the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine. At a 10 M concentration, manidipine efficiently inhibited WT JEV infection and reduced the viral yields by approximately 4 log units, while the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine and the viral titer decreased less than 2 log units. The Q130A mutant virus demonstrated moderate resistance and a slightly higher Taken together, it could be concluded that Q130 not only is critical for conferring manidipine sensitivity but also is important for JEV replication. The replacement of glutamine with basic amino acids conferred resistance to manidipine without an apparent loss of growth. In vivo efficacy of manidipine. As manidipine exhibited the strongest inhibitory activities on JEV replication as well as ZIKV infection when its activities were compared with those of the five hit drugs (Fig. 2 and 4A) , we further examined the protective effect of manidipine against JEV-induced lethality in a mouse model. As anticipated, mice in the JEV-infected vehicle-treated group started to show symptoms, including limb paralysis, restriction of movement, piloerection, body stiffening, and whole-body tremor, from day 5 postinfection. Within 21 days postinfection, most mice in the JEV-infected group succumbed to the infection, with the mortality rate being 73% (4 out of 15 animals survived). Manidipine treatment following JEV infection reduced the mortality rate to 20% (12 out of 15 animals survived) (Fig. 7A ). Mice treated with manidipine alone or treated with manidipine and infected with JEV showed little abnormal behavior, similar to the findings for the mice in the vehicle-treated group. These results suggest that manidipine provided effective protection against JEVinduced mortality. To further relate these protective effects to the viral load and histopathological changes in the mouse brains, the viral titer was determined and mouse brain sections were collected and assayed at day 5 and day 21 postinfection, since mice started to show symptoms of JEV infection from day 5 postinfection and most of the surviving mice had recovered at day 21. The results indicated that, during the progression of the disease, manidipine treatment significantly reduced the viral load in infected mice compared to that in infected mice not receiving treatment, while no plaques formed in either the manidipine-or vehicle-treated group, and viral loads were undetectable in each group on day 21 postinfection (Fig. 7B) . As JEV was rapidly cleared from the blood after inoculation and was present in the lymphatic system during the preclinical phase, the effects of manidipine on infection of serum and the spleen were evaluated at earlier time points to detect whether the drug reduced the peripheral viral loads (20, 21) . As shown in Fig. 7C , manidipine had little effect on peripheral JEV infection, which indicated that manidipine protected the mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain. Similarly, apparent damage in the brain, including meningitis, perivascular cuffing, vacuolar degeneration, and glial nodules, was observed in the JEV-infected and vehicle-treated group on day 5 postinfection, while manidipine treatment remarkably alleviated these phenomena (Fig. 7D) . These results indicate that the alleviation of histopathological changes was accompanied by a reduction in the viral load as well as a reduction in the rate of mortality, further confirming the curative effects of manidipine on viral encephalitis. Among the five hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride were VGCC inhibitors. It has been well documented in the literature that Ca 2ϩ inhibitors serve to inhibit virus infection at the stage of either entry (15, 22) or replication (18) and even at the stage of budding (23) . To this end, we first reviewed all 21 calcium inhibitors included in the current library of FDA-approved drugs and found that, in addition to the four DHP VGCC inhibitors listed in Fig. 1B , two other calcium inhibitors, i.e., flunarizine dihydrochloride and lomerizine hydrochloride, were also identified to be primary candidates with levels of inhibition of Ͼ90%. Similarly, three calcium channel antagonists, nisoldipine, felodipine, and nicardipine hydrochloride, showed levels of inhibition of 75%, 72%, and 66%, respectively, in the primary screen. Together, 9 of the 21 calcium inhibitors in the library, accounting for nearly half of the calcium inhibitors, exhibited levels of flavivirus inhibition of greater than 50%, suggesting that calcium, especially the calcium channel, is a potential antiviral target. To address this, another type of VGCC inhibitor, verapamil, an FDA-approved drug not yet included in the drug library used in this study, was investigated. Likewise, a Ca 2ϩ chelator, BAPTA-AM, as well as the Ca 2ϩ inhibitors 2-APB and cyclosporine, targeting ER and the mitochondrial Ca 2ϩ channel, respectively, were employed to investigate the response of JEV infection to the decrease in intracellular Ca 2ϩ levels. In line with the activities of the three hit DHP VGCC inhibitor drugs, the additional Ca 2ϩ inhibitors exerted anti-JEV activity, which indicated that Ca 2ϩ is indispensable for JEV infection. Thus, Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might be utilized as effective treatments for flavivirus infection. As the hit drugs exerted full inhibitory activity when they were added posttreatment, we believe that Ca 2ϩ is important for flavivirus genome replication. Furthermore, selection and genetic analysis of drug-resistant viruses revealed that NS4B is the viral target of manidipine. NS4B is part of the viral replication complex and is supposed to anchor the viral replicase to the ER membrane (24) . Meanwhile, the N-terminal 125amino-acid domain of DENV NS4B was indicated to be responsible for inhibition of the immune response (25) . Notably, several structurally distinct compounds have been identified to inhibit flavivirus replication by intensively targeting the TMD of NS4B (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) . It is thus conceivable that inhibitors targeting TMD of NS4B would perturb its function, leading to the suppression of viral RNA replication. In this study, the replacement of Q130 of NS4B with a basic amino acid conferred the resistance effect without suppressing JEV replication, suggesting that position 130 could tolerate a basic amino acid and that the basic amino acid might be involved in the interplay of NS4B with host proteins rather than viral proteins. Moreover, the efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were monitored in vivo, with manidipine demonstrating effective antiviral activity with favorable biocompatibility. However, the dose used in this study was higher than the dose typically used clinically, representing one of the scenarios most commonly encountered in drug repurposing (33, 34) . As manidipine was approved for use for the long-term treatment of hypertension (35, 36) , pulse-dose treatment with manidipine over the shorter period of time required for the treatment of virus infection might be relatively safe. Moreover, use of a combination of manidipine with other Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might improve its therapeutic efficacy, reduce its toxicity, and reduce the risk of resistance development (37) (38) (39) . Besides the three VGCC inhibitors, two hit drugs, pimecrolimus and nelfinavir mesylate, showed equivalent inhibitory activities on the replication of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2. Although there has been no report on the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of infectious diseases, we showed that it had a robust effect against JEV with an SI of Ͼ32. The maximum plasma concentration (C max ) of nelfinavir mesylate achieved with an adult dose was 3 to 4 g/ml (40) , which was comparable to the IC 50 reported here. Notably, nelfinavir mesylate was confirmed to inhibit herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and the replication of several other herpesviruses by interfering directly or indirectly with the later steps of virus formation, such as glycoprotein maturation or virion release, other than functioning in herpesviruses protease (41, 42) . Whether nelfinavir mesylate inhibits flavivirus by interference with the virus protease or by other off-target effects is unknown. Understanding of the mechanism of the antiflavivirus effects of these drugs might uncover novel targets of the drugs, providing further insight into the pathogenesis of flaviviruses. Above all, the findings reported here provide novel insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying flavivirus infection and offer new and promising therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. Cells and viruses. BHK-21, SH-SY5Y (human neuroblastoma), Vero, and Huh-7 cells were cultured in Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (HyClone, Logan, UT, USA) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (Gibco, Grand Island, NY, USA). JEV strain AT31, the WNV replicon, and the DENV-2 replicon expressing Renilla luciferase (Rluc) were kindly provided by Bo Zhang, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China. JEV replicon recombinant viral particles (RVPs) were generated as previously described (4, 5) . ZIKV strain H/PF/2013, kindly provided by the European Virus Archive Goes Global, was propagated and titrated in Vero cells. Optimization of HTS assay conditions. The cell density and RVP dose were optimized for the HTS assay. Vero cells at different densities (2,500 to 12,500 cells per well) were infected with from 1.25 to 20 l RVPs (1 to 16 copies per well). The appropriate cell density as well as the RVP dose was selected by comparing the S/B ratio, CV, and Z= values under different conditions as previously described (43) . Methyl-␤-cyclodextrin and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) were used as positive and negative controls, respectively. HTS assay of an FDA-approved compound library. A library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs was purchased from Selleck Chemicals (Houston, TX, USA). The compounds were stored as 10 mM stock solutions in DMSO at 4°C until use. The first round of the HTS assay was carried out as shown in Fig. 1A . The criteria used to identify the primary candidates were no apparent cytotoxicity and an average level of inhibition of Ͼ90% in duplicate wells. The criteria of dose-dependent inhibition and cell viability of Ͼ80% were applied for the reconfirmation screen. Furthermore, the CC 50 of each compound was calculated, and those compounds displaying SIs over 10 were considered hits in this study. Identification of antiviral effects of five hit drugs. The antiviral effects of the drugs were evaluated by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR), immunofluorescence assay (IFA), and plaque assay as previously reported (44) (45) (46) (47) . The experimental timeline is depicted in Fig. 2A . To ensure the effectiveness of the hit drugs in flavivirus replication, BHK-21 cells transfected with the JEV, WNV, or DENV-2 replicon were incubated with each drug at the concentrations indicated above, and the luciferase activities were determined 24 h, 48 h, or 72 h later, respectively. Time-of-addition experiment. To evaluate which stage of the JEV life cycle was inhibited by each hit, a time-of-addition experiment was performed as previously described (43) . Vero cells were infected with 20 l RVPs for 1 h (0 to 1 h). The test compounds were incubated with the cells for 1 h before infection (Ϫ1 to 0 h), during infection (0 to 1 h), and for 23 h postinfection (1 to 24 h) (Fig. 3A) . To exclude a possible direct inactivating effect of the drugs, RVPs were incubated with each drug at 37°C for 1 h, and the mixtures were diluted 25-fold to infect Vero cells. Twenty-four hours later, the luciferase activities were determined as described above (Fig. 3A) . Manidipine-resistant virus. Manidipine-resistant virus was generated by passaging of JEV on Vero cells in the presence of manidipine. Passages 1 to 10 used 5 M manidipine, and passages 11 to 20 used 10 M manidipine. As a control, WT virus was passaged in the presence of 2% DMSO in parallel. Passaging was terminated at passage 20, when no further improvement in resistance was detected. Two manidipine-resistant virus isolates were plaque purified and amplified in the presence of manidipine. Viral RNA was extracted, amplified, and purified for sequencing. An infectious cDNA clone of JEV, strain AT31 (pMWJEAT), kindly provided by T. Wakita, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neuroscience, was used to recover WT and mutant viruses as described previously (4) . Virus titers and manidipine sensitivities were determined by plaque assay in Vero cells. Manidipine administration to JEV-infected mice. Adult female BALB/c mice (age, 4 weeks) were kept in the Laboratory Animal Center of Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China). The mice were randomly divided into four groups (30 mice per group): a JEV-infected and vehicle (2% Tween 80 plus 5% DMSO in phosphate-buffered saline [PBS])-treated group, a manidipine-treated group, a JEV-infected and manidipine-treated group, and a vehicle-treated group. For infection, mice were infected intraperitoneally with 5 ϫ 10 6 PFU of JEV strain AT31. For the manidipine and vehicle treatments, mice were injected intraperitoneally with 25 mg/kg of body weight manidipine or PBS with 2% Tween 80 and 5% DMSO, respectively. Treatments were administered twice a day for the first 2 days and then consecutively administered once a day for up to 21 days. Five mice from each group were sacrificed on days 1, 3, and 5 postinfection. Serum, spleen tissue, and brain tissue samples were collected for viral titer determination and histopathology investigation. Fifteen mice were monitored daily for morbidity and mortality. The mice that showed neurological signs of disease were euthanized according to the Regulations for the Administration of Affairs Concerning Experimental Animals in China. The protocols were reviewed and approved by the Laboratory Animal Care and Use Committee at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China).

How many open reading frames are in the flavivirus genome?

Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus Induces Apoptosis through the Unfolded Protein Response Activation of EGR1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4794670/ SHA: f4aa788ab898b28b00ee103e4d4ab24a2c684caf Authors: Baer, Alan; Lundberg, Lindsay; Swales, Danielle; Waybright, Nicole; Pinkham, Chelsea; Dinman, Jonathan D.; Jacobs, Jonathan L.; Kehn-Hall, Kylene Date: 2016-03-11 DOI: 10.1128/jvi.02827-15 License: cc-by Abstract: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) is a previously weaponized arthropod-borne virus responsible for causing acute and fatal encephalitis in animal and human hosts. The increased circulation and spread in the Americas of VEEV and other encephalitic arboviruses, such as eastern equine encephalitis virus and West Nile virus, underscore the need for research aimed at characterizing the pathogenesis of viral encephalomyelitis for the development of novel medical countermeasures. The host-pathogen dynamics of VEEV Trinidad donkey-infected human astrocytoma U87MG cells were determined by carrying out RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) of poly(A) and mRNAs. To identify the critical alterations that take place in the host transcriptome following VEEV infection, samples were collected at 4, 8, and 16 h postinfection and RNA-Seq data were acquired using an Ion Torrent PGM platform. Differential expression of interferon response, stress response factors, and components of the unfolded protein response (UPR) was observed. The protein kinase RNA-like endoplasmic reticulum kinase (PERK) arm of the UPR was activated, as the expression of both activating transcription factor 4 (ATF4) and CHOP (DDIT3), critical regulators of the pathway, was altered after infection. Expression of the transcription factor early growth response 1 (EGR1) was induced in a PERK-dependent manner. EGR1(−/−) mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) demonstrated lower susceptibility to VEEV-induced cell death than isogenic wild-type MEFs, indicating that EGR1 modulates proapoptotic pathways following VEEV infection. The influence of EGR1 is of great importance, as neuronal damage can lead to long-term sequelae in individuals who have survived VEEV infection. IMPORTANCE Alphaviruses represent a group of clinically relevant viruses transmitted by mosquitoes to humans. In severe cases, viral spread targets neuronal tissue, resulting in significant and life-threatening inflammation dependent on a combination of virus-host interactions. Currently there are no therapeutics for infections cause by encephalitic alphaviruses due to an incomplete understanding of their molecular pathogenesis. Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) is an alphavirus that is prevalent in the Americas and that is capable of infecting horses and humans. Here we utilized next-generation RNA sequencing to identify differential alterations in VEEV-infected astrocytes. Our results indicated that the abundance of transcripts associated with the interferon and the unfolded protein response pathways was altered following infection and demonstrated that early growth response 1 (EGR1) contributed to VEEV-induced cell death. Text: V enezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) is a New World alphavirus in the family Togaviridae that is endemic to the Americas. VEEV is a positive-strand RNA virus that is transmitted by mosquitoes and that is naturally present in rodent reservoirs (1) . There are six subtypes that are categorized by their geographic range and pathology in equines and humans. The two epizootic strains, IA/B and IC, arose from mutations among the enzootic strains (2) . The IA/B and IC strains are of particular concern due to increased rates of morbidity and mortality and the risks associated with viral amplification and potential species spillover (2) . In humans, VEEV causes a febrile illness typified by fever, malaise, and vomiting. In some cases, infection progresses to the central nervous system (CNS) and neurological symptoms, such as confusion, ataxia, and seizures, manifest. The mortality rate among cases with neurological symptoms can be as high as 35% in children and 10% in adults, with long-term neurological deficits often being seen in survivors (2) . In 1995, an outbreak of VEEV in Colombia and Venezuela resulted in over 100,000 human cases (3) . In addition to natural outbreaks, VEEV is also a concern from a bioterrorism perspective, as it can be grown to high titers, requires a low infectious dose, and contains multiple serotypes. Both the former Soviet Union and the United States previously weaponized the virus, producing large quantities for their now defunct offensive bioweapons programs (4) . Currently, vaccine strain TC83 is used in horses and for high-risk personnel; however, due to the low rate of seroconversion achieved with this vaccine (5) and its reliance on two single attenuating mutations (6) , it is considered unfit for mass distribution (7) . To date there are no FDA-approved therapeutics for VEEV infection, and further studies are required for clarification of the mechanisms associated with the underlying pathogenesis of VEEV. Viral and host transcriptomic studies can provide a wealth of information on the underlying pathogenic mechanisms and interactions following the course of an infection. The use of highthroughput next-generation sequencing has led to the discovery of previously uncharacterized viruses and the establishment of numerous novel experimental systems redefining virus-host interactions. To date a number of studies have examined the alterations in the host transcriptome following VEEV infection. A comparative microarray analysis between cells persistently infected with VEEV and cells able to clear VEEV resulted in the identification of PARP12L as an antiviral factor (8) . A molecular comparison utilizing microarrays of host-based responses to the TC83 strain was able to identify biomarkers differentiating between vaccine responder and vaccine nonresponder groups, as well as the involvement of interferon (IFN), interferon-induced pathways, Toll-like receptor (TLR), and interleukin 12 (IL-12)related pathways (9) . A study examining the role of adhesion and inflammatory factors in VEEV-infected CD-1 mice found viral modulation of the expression of extracellular matrix and adhesion genes, such as integrins (Itg␣X, Itg2, 3, and 7), cadherins 1 and 2, vascular cell adhesion molecule 1, and intracellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), in the brains of VEEV-infected mice (10) . Follow-up experiments utilizing ICAM-1-knockout mice demonstrated reduced inflammation in the brain and a subsequent delay in the onset of neurological sequelae (10) . A study by Sharma et al. utilized microarrays to analyze gene expression changes in the brain tissue of VEEV-infected mice over the course of an infection, discovering numerous immune pathways involved in antigen presentation, inflammation, apoptosis, and the traditional antiviral response (Cxcl10, CxCl11, Ccl5, Ifr7, Ifi27, Oas1b, Fcerg1, Mif, clusterin, and major histocompatibility complex [MHC] class II) (11) . A second study by the same group identified the regulation of microRNAs (miRNAs) in the brains of VEEV-infected mice, which enabled the correlation of the miRNA changes with earlier mRNA expression data (11, 12) . These analyses suggest that VEEV may be utilizing cellular miRNAs in order to regulate downstream mRNA, which may correspond with the VEEV-induced histological changes to the nervous system (11, 12) . In the current study, next-generation RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) was used to identify clinically relevant alterations in the mRNA transcriptome of human astrocytes infected with wildtype (WT) VEEV strain Trinidad donkey (TrD). The analysis of host mRNAs by RNA-Seq provides novel insight into how a host responds to a viral infection through the identification of a wide and dynamic range of transcripts in an unbiased manner. Selective sequencing of mRNAs, specifically, polyadenylated [poly(A)] transcripts, which account for ϳ1% of the entire transcriptome, enhances the detection of the most relevant and low-abundance transcripts (13) . As VEEV has been shown to productively infect astrocytes both in vitro and in vivo (14, 15) , we chose astrocytes as our model of interest. Astrocytes are the most abundant cell in the brain, outnumbering neurons by at least 5-fold (16) , providing an abundant resource for viral replication within the brain. In addition to their well-described structural role in neuronal tissue, as-trocytes play critical roles in other processes, including the regulation of blood flow and of the blood-brain barrier, synapse transmission, and the response to infection (16) . VEEV-infected astrocytes have been shown to produce multiple cytokines, including IL-8, IL-17, interferon gamma (IFN-␥), and gamma interferon-induced protein 10, all of which were found to be associated with viral attenuation (14) . In order to obtain a dynamic view of the virus-host interactome, RNA-Seq was used to monitor changes in gene expression in VEEV TrD-infected astrocytes at 4, 8, and 16 h postinfection (hpi). By viewing the alterations at multiple early time points using triplicate biological replicates, a robust and dynamic range of information is generated, and this information provides an increase in both the power and the accuracy of detection of differentially expressed transcripts in a highly relevant clinical model (17) . Among VEEV-infected cells, an increase in interferon-regulated genes, including IFIT1, IFIT2, IFIT3, and OASL, was observed. The increased expression of genes involved in the stressinduced unfolded protein response (UPR) pathway was also noted. Interestingly, VEEV infection resulted in an increase in early growth response protein 1 (EGR1), which may serve as a link between the two pathways. The identification of host mRNAs whose expression is altered following VEEV replication, specifically, EGR1 and its interactors up-and downstream, may provide novel host-based therapeutic targets critical for VEEV replication and a greater understanding of the underlying mechanisms underpinning alphavirus replication. Viral infections and plaque assays. VEEV TrD was obtained from BEI Resources. All experiments with VEEV TrD were performed under biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) conditions. All work involving select agents is registered with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and was conducted at George Mason University's Biomedical Research Laboratory, which is registered in accordance with federal select agent regulations. For infections, VEEV was added to supplemented Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (DMEM) to achieve a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 0.05, 0.5, or 5. Cells were infected for 1 h at 37°C and rotated every 15 min to ensure adequate coverage. The cells were then washed with phosphatebuffered saline (PBS), and complete growth medium was added back to the cells. Viral supernatants and cells were collected at various times postinfection for further analysis. Plaque assays were performed as previously described (18) . mRNA isolation and poly(A) library preparation. RNA from U87MG cells was purified from both VEEV TrD-infected (biosafety level 3) and mock-infected U87MG cells at 4, 8, and 16 hpi utilizing a mirVana isolation kit (Life Technologies). Quality control of purified RNA was then performed using an Agilent 2100 bioanalyzer, and an RNA integrity number (RIN) cutoff of 8 was utilized for all samples. An External RNA Controls Consortium (ERCC) RNA spike-in control mix was then added to the total RNA inputs (10 g RNA) before poly(A) selection using a Life Technologies Dynabeads mRNA Direct kit. Preparation of a whole-transcriptome RNA library from purified mRNA was then performed using an Ion Total RNA-Seq kit (v2; Life Technologies). Quality control of the cDNA libraries was then performed using the Agilent 2100 bioanalyzer along with sterility testing for removal of libraries for sequencing from a BSL-3 to BSL-2 laboratory. RNA sequencing. Library template preparation was performed on a One Touch 2 platform (Life Technologies). Next-generation RNA sequencing was performed on an Ion Torrent PGM platform and was carried out for each sample to assess the differential gene expression of infected versus uninfected cells over time. Data filtering and RNA-Seq analysis pipeline. A total of ϳ119 million sequencing reads and an average of 6.6 million reads per sample were used as the input into our analysis pipeline. Unless otherwise noted, downstream RNA-Seq analysis was carried out using the CLC bio Genomics Workbench (v7). Raw RNA-Seq reads were trimmed to remove any residual sequencing adapter fragments that remained on the 5= or 3= ends after sequencing. In addition, end trimming of reads was done using the modified Mott algorithm with a Q20 quality score, and any reads of less than 15 bp were discarded. Following read trimming, the reads were mapped to human genome hg19 with the following RNA-Seq parameters: a 10-hit limit for multiple mapped positions, a similarity fraction of 0.8, a length fraction of 0.8, a mismatch cost of 2, and an indel cost of 3. The expression level of individual genes and transcripts was calculated using the number of reads per kilobase of the exon model per million mapped reads (RPKM) method of Mortazavi et al. (19) . In addition, unmapped reads were also mapped to the ERCC92 synthetic RNA sequence set (20) , as well as to the VEEV reference genome (GenBank accession number L01442). In all samples, the correlation coefficient (R 2 ) between the expected and the mapped number of reads for the ERCC92 spike-in controls was above 0.90. A summary of the overall sequencing results is shown in Table 1 . Postmapping filtering of all RNA-Seq data was carried out next to include only genes with at least one uniquely mapped read (26,230 genes remained across all data sets) and only those with a nonzero interquartile range across the entire experiment. Principal component analysis of the resulting filtered data set (13,906 genes in total) was carried out using raw counts of uniquely mapped reads (see Fig. 2A ). The remaining RPKM expression values for each gene included in the filtered data set were subjected to quantile normalization with a 5% cutoff. A box plot of log 2transformed RPKM values for each sample before normalization is shown in Fig. 2B . The R 2 value for pairwise sample-to-sample variation within each biological replicate set was observed to range from 0.89 to 0.99, indicating that our biological replicates were consistent and showed no strong bias (data not shown). Differential gene expression analysis. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified using two approaches. First, the empirical analysis of differential gene expression algorithm, part of the edgeR Bioconductor package (21) , was applied to the integrated data set of all 18 experiments using the default parameters and a false discovery rate-corrected P value. At each time point, infected and mock-infected samples were compared, and genes whose expression differed by more than 2-fold with a significance with a P value of Յ0.05 were provisionally considered to be differentially expressed. In addition to the method described above, an orthogonal statistical test of differential expression was applied to the data using a statistical test developed by Baggerly et al. (22) to count the number of expressed sequence tags associated with individual genes, a common feature of both serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) data and RNA-Seq data. When infected and mock-infected samples were compared, individual genes were provisionally considered differentially expressed when their expression differed by more than 2-fold with a significance with a P value of Յ0.05. Differentially expressed genes found to be in the intersection of the sets of genes identified by both of the methods outlined above were considered high-quality candidates and used as the starting point for further investigation. Clustering and GSEA. Filtered, normalized expression data were subjected to k-means clustering using a Euclidian distance metric where genes were grouped by means of normalized gene expression (RPKM) values for each experimental condition. Clustering was fitted to 20 distinct clustering groups, and the individual gene expression profiles clustered were further tested for enrichment of gene ontology (GO) terms associated with individual genes. Gene annotations were obtained from Reactome, a database of biological pathway and gene functional annotations (23) . Enrichment analysis was performed using two approaches. First, a hypergeometric test on GO annotations was carried out using an implementation of the GOStats package on each of the individual clusters obtained from k-means clustering (24) . In addition, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was carried out on the entire filtered data set using 100,000 permutations, while duplicates were removed and an analysis of variance was applied. A total of 1,419 categories passed a minimum feature size of 10 and were used for further investigation. Cohorts of genes with shared patterns of expression over time were identified by k-means clustering. Those found to be enriched for DEGs were subsequently subjected to pathway analysis using the GeneMania system (25) . Using an ad hoc manual approach, relevant pathways and the connections between them were identified on the basis of existing data in the literature coupled with the temporal gene expression data obtained from this study. qRT-PCR analysis. Purified mRNA was converted to cDNA using a high-capacity RNA-to-cDNA kit (Life Technologies) according to the manufacturer's instructions. Analysis of the viral copy numbers was performed by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR) as previously described (26) . Host expression of the following genes was assayed with TaqMan assays (indicated in parentheses): activating transcription factor 3 (ATF3; Hs00231069_m1), ATF4 (Hs00909569_g1), CEBPB (Hs00270923_s1), CEBPD (Hs00270931_s1), DDIT3 (Hs00358796_g1), FOS (Hs04194186_s1), JUN (Hs01103582_s1), EGR1 (Hs00152928_m1), IFI6 (Hs00242571_m1), IFIT1 (Hs01911452_s1), IFIT2 (Hs01922738_s1), IFIT3 (Hs01922738_s1), ISG15 (Hs01921425_s1), ISG20 (Hs00158122_m1), OASL (Hs00984387_m1), BIRC5 (Mm00599749_m1), and XIAP (Mm01311594_mH). Assays for 18S rRNA (Hs99999901_s1 or Mm04277571_s1) were used for normalization. Assays were performed according to the manufacturer's instructions using an ABI StepOne Plus instrument. Treatment with PERKi and collection for Western blot analysis. U87MG cells were pretreated for 2 h with 10 M the protein kinase RNAlike endoplasmic reticulum (ER) kinase (PERK) inhibitor (PERKi) GSK2606414 (catalog number 516535; EMD Millipore) or dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) in DMEM prior to infection with VEEV TrD (MOI, 5). After 1 h, the viral inoculum was removed and cells were washed with sterile PBS (1ϫ). The medium was replaced with medium containing the inhibitor or DMSO. At 16 hpi, the medium was removed, and the cells were washed with PBS and then collected for Western blot analysis. Knockdown of EGR1 with siRNA. U87MG cells seeded at 6.7 ϫ 10 4 cells per well in a 12-well plate were transfected with 50 nM siGenome Protein lysate preparation and Western blot analysis. Protein lysate preparation and Western blot analysis were performed as previously described (27) . Primary antibodies to the following were used: EGR1 (antibody 44D5; catalog number 4154; Cell Signaling), polyclonal anti-Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus TC83 (subtype IA/B) capsid protein (BEI Resources), CHOP (antibody L63F7; catalog number 2895; Cell Signaling), phosphorylated ␣ subunit of eukaryotic initiation factor 2 (p-eIF2␣; Ser51; antibody D9G8; catalog number 3398; Cell Signaling), ATF4 (antibody D4B8; catalog number 11815; Cell Signaling), activated caspase 3 (antibody Asp175; catalog number 9661; Cell Signaling), and horseradish peroxidase-conjugated ␤-actin (catalog number ab49900-100; Abcam). Immunofluorescence analysis. U87MG cells were grown on coverslips in a 6-well plate, infected with VEEV TrD as described above, washed with PBS (without Ca and Mg), and then fixed with 4% formaldehyde. Cells were permeabilized with 0.5% Triton X-100 in PBS for 20 min and then washed twice with PBS. The cells were blocked for 10 min at room temperature in 3% bovine serum albumin in PBS. Primary antibodies consisting of a VEEV capsid protein (catalog number NR-9403; BEI Resources) diluted 1:600 and an EGR1 antibody (antibody 44D5; catalog number 4154; Cell Signaling) diluted 1:400 were incubated in fresh blocking buffer at 37°C for 1 h and washed 3 times for 3 min each time in 300 mM NaCl with 0.1% Triton X-100. Alexa Fluor 568 donkey anti-goat secondary antibody (catalog number A11057; Invitrogen) and Alexa Fluor 488 donkey anti-mouse secondary antibody (catalog number A21202; Invitrogen) diluted 1:400 were used as secondary antibodies and treated in the same manner as the primary antibodies. DAPI (4=,6-di- amidino-2-phenylindole) diluted 1:1,000 was used to visualize the nuclei. Coverslips were mounted onto glass slides using 10 l of Fluoromount G mounting medium (catalog number 0100-01; Southern Biotech). A Nikon Eclipse TE2000-U fluorescence microscope was used for fluorescence microscopy. Images were viewed using a 60ϫ objective oil immersion lens. Five images of each sample were obtained, and a representative image of each sample is shown below. All images were subjected to fourline averaging. The images were processed through Nikon NIS-Elements AR Analysis (v3.2) software. CellTiter Glo and Caspase 3/7 Glo assays. Wild-type and EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) were infected with TrD at various MOIs for an hour and then washed with PBS, and the medium was replaced. Cell viability was measured at 24 h postinfection using a Promega CellTiter luminescent cell viability assay (catalog number G7571) according to the manufacturer's protocol. Luminescence was read using a Beckman Coulter DTX 880 multimode detector with an integration time of 100 ms per well. Similarly, caspase activation in infected wildtype and EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ MEFs was measured at 24 h postinfection using a Promega Caspase 3/7 Glo assay (catalog number G8090) according to the manufacturer's protocol. Luminescence was read using the DTX 880 multimode detector with an integration time of 100 ms per well. Nucleotide sequence accession numbers. The raw sequencing data for all RNA-Seq runs included in this work are publically available in the NCBI BioProject database under accession number PRJNA300864 (http: //www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/bioproject/PRJNA300864). VEEV replication kinetics in U87MG astrocytes. VEEV replicates in vivo in monocytes, macrophages, neurons, and astrocytes (14) . Common cell lines used to study VEEV infection include Vero and BHK cells; in this study, U87MG astrocytes were chosen as an in vitro model due to their physiological relevance and greater clinical significance. Initial experiments were performed to characterize viral replication in U87MG cells. VEEV replication kinetics in U87MG cells were measured using plaque assays and by monitoring viral protein and RNA expression levels and the cytopathic effect (CPE) on the infected cells (Fig. 1) . Viral release was observed as early as 4 hpi, with ϳ4 log units of virus being observed, followed by a consistent increase in replication at 8 and 16 hpi (Fig. 1A) . Viral replication peaked at 16 hpi, and no additional increase in viral titers was observed at 24 hpi. Viral capsid expression followed a similar pattern, with protein being detected at 8 hpi and expression plateauing at 16 hpi (Fig. 1B) . Among infected U87MG cells, a significant CPE was observed by microscopy at 24 hpi, with little to no CPE being detected at 16 hpi (data not shown). Consistent with these observations, increased caspase 3/7 activity was observed only at 24 hpi (Fig. 1C) . On the basis of these data, times of 4, 8, and 16 hpi, reflecting the early, middle, and late stages of the viral life cycle, respectively, were selected for RNA-Seq analysis in order to provide a dynamic view of the host-pathogen transcriptome profile. RNA sequencing analysis of VEEV-infected astrocytes. mRNA from triplicate sets of mock-and VEEV-infected U87MG cell cultures was isolated, purified at 4, 8, and 16 hpi, and used to prepare cDNA libraries for downstream RNA-Seq (see Materials and Methods). A high-level summary of the RNA-Seq results is shown in Table 1 . VEEV RNA samples were assayed by quantitative RT-PCR at each time point as a control to demonstrate the increasing viral RNA load over time (Fig. 1D) , consistent with the increasing number of RNA-Seq reads mapped to the VEEV genome at later time points (Table 1) . For RNA-Seq analysis, individual genes were expressed as the number of reads per kilobase of the exon model per million mapped reads (RPKM) (19) . Log 2 -normalized RPKM expression values for each experimental sample are shown in Fig. 2A and can be found in Data Set S1 in the supplemental material. Minimal sample-to-sample variation in expression values within biological replicates was consistently detected (R 2 Ͼ 0.89 for all replicates; data not shown). In addition, intersample variation was also found to be minimal when it was tested pairwise across the entire experiment by using RPKM values for ERCC97 synthetic spike-in control RNAs (R 2 Ͼ 0.90 for all comparisons; data not shown). As anticipated, two-component principal component analysis of the RNA-Seq data for mock-infected cells versus VEEV-infected cells showed a clear separation of the samples at 16 hpi from the samples at earlier time points (Fig. 2B) . However, the clustering of VEEV-infected samples with mock-infected samples at earlier time points suggested that the response to viral infection was limited to a narrow subset of early response genes, thus placing a higher burden of proof on identifying differentially expressed genes (DEGs) during the first few hours of infection. Along these lines, two orthogonal methods were used to identify DEGs suitable for further characterization: the edgeR method (21) and the method developed by Baggerly et al. (22) . Genes identified by one method were provisionally considered DEGs, and those identified by both methods were candidate DEGs to be confirmed by qRT-PCR. In addition to comparing individual gene expression values for mock-infected cells and VEEV-infected cells at each time point, gene expression values were also compared serially within each time series of VEEV-infected cells for genes that did not show any statistically significant changes in expression in mock-infected cells. A schematic of the comparative analysis is shown in Fig. 2C . The number of statistically significant DEGs identified by each of these comparisons is shown in Fig. 2D . Furthermore, k-means clustering (against normalized RPKM values) was employed to identify gross changes in gene expression over time for cohorts of genes potentially sharing the same pathway or regulatory triggers ( Fig. 3 ; see also Data Set S2 in the supplemental material). Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA; see Material and Methods and Data Set S3 in the supplemental material) was carried out on each kmeans cluster. In particular, cluster 20 (Table 2) was significantly enriched for genes involved in translational control, the type I interferon-mediated signaling pathway, and the unfolded protein response (UPR) pathway (GSEA P value Ͻ 0.01). Although there is a well-established connection between translational control and UPR, a novel connection between UPR and the type I interferonmediated response in response to viral replication was suggested by pathway analysis (see Materials and Methods), implicating early growth response 1 (EGR1) as a potential bridge between these two pathways (Fig. 4) . EGR1 belongs to cluster 20 and is strongly induced during VEEV infection, and several other genes associated with the interferon response belong to the same cluster: IRF1, IFIT1, IFIT2, ISG15, and ILF3. EGR1 has been associated with increases in the expression of activating transcription factor 3 (ATF3) (28) , which is a key component of the UPR and which also belongs to cluster 20. This connection represented a potential a Biological process annotations obtained from Reactome for cluster 20. Reactome annotation identifiers are indicated for each annotation. Only traceable author submission (TAS)-classified annotations are considered. TAP, transporter associated with antigen processing; SRP, signal recognition particle. b Full set, the total number of genes in the genome with an annotated biological process; subset, total number of differentially expressed genes with an annotated biological process. Network of type I interferon response-and UPR-related genes. Large circles, differentially expressed genes; small circles, genes with no significant change in expression; red circles, type I interferon response factors; yellow circles, genes regulating DNA transcription; blue circles, unfolded protein response genes; red lines, genes involved in physical protein-protein interactions; blue lines, genes involved in a common pathway. This network was seeded with k-means clusters 18 and 20, and many ribosomal protein genes were removed. bridge between the UPR pathway and the interferon response pathway, with EGR1 being one of the potential key transcription factors driving this connection. Consequently, 15 genes from this analysis were selected for further characterization by qRT-PCR (see below): ATF3, activating transcription factor 4 (ATF4), CEBPB, CEBPD, DDIT3/CHOP, EGR1, FOS, IFI6, IFIT1, IFIT2, IFIT3, ISG15, ISG20, JUN, and OASL. The expression values of these genes, as measured by RNA-Seq, are shown in Fig. 5A and B. Confirmatory qRT-PCR analysis indicated concordant gene expression ( Fig. 5C and D) . The interferon response genes induced are in agreement with those detected in previously published studies (11, 29, 30) , and these genes served as an internal positive control. Moreover, the link between EGR1 and the interferon pathway has been demonstrated; EGR1 is induced by IFN-␥ in mouse fibroblasts and by IFN-␣, -␤, and -␥ in human fibroblasts (31, 32) . EGR1 and the UPR pathway were selected for further analysis, as their role in VEEV infection has not been elucidated. The RNA-Seq and pathway analysis data indicated that UPR and stress response genes were induced after VEEV infection. During an infection, host cells respond to cellular stresses resulting from increased viral protein translation and secretion by triggering the onset of the UPR pathway. The UPR pathway is an adaptive cellular response activated by endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress due to protein misfolding. In order to regulate cellular homeostasis during protein folding and secretion, the UPR pathway has developed three classes of sensors to ensure proper cellular regulation: inositolrequiring enzyme 1 (IRE1), protein kinase RNA-like ER kinase (PERK), and activating transcription factor 6 (ATF6) (33, 34) . During VEEV infection, the PERK arm of the UPR appeared to be altered, as two critical regulators of this pathway were differentially expressed: ATF4 and CHOP (DDIT3) (35) . To determine if DEGs altered subsequent protein expression, Western blot analysis was performed for CHOP, ATF4, and phosphorylated eIF2␣ (p-eIF2␣). Tunicamycin, a glycosylation inhibitor and inducer of UPR (36) , was included as a positive control. A time course analysis of U87MG cells treated with 1 M tunicamycin indicated that 8 h of treatment provided the most robust induction of UPR proteins (data not shown). VEEV-infected but not mock-infected or UV-inactivated VEEV (UV-VEEV)-infected cells displayed a dramatic increase in p-eIF2␣ expression and a modest but consistent increase in CHOP and ATF4 expression at 16 hpi (Fig. 6A) . No change in protein expression was observed at 4 hpi (data not shown). Confocal microscopy confirmed CHOP and ATF4 up- regulation, demonstrating a more robust and nuclear staining pattern in VEEV-infected cells than in mock-infected cells (Fig. 6C to E). While ATF4 protein expression levels increased, ATF4 mRNA abundances decreased following VEEV infection ( Fig. 5B and D). These results are consistent with the observation that ATF4 expression is regulated at the translational level upon UPR induction (37) . As eIF2␣ can be phosphorylated by multiple kinases (PERK, protein kinase double-stranded RNA dependent [PKR], general control nonderepressible-2 [GCN2], and hemeregulated inhibitor [HRI]) (38) , the PERK inhibitor (PERKi) GSK2606414 was used to determine if the observed phosphorylation was PERK dependent. Treatment of VEEV-infected cells with PERKi resulted in a marked decrease in eIF2␣ phosphorylation (Fig. 6B) . These results indicate that PERK contributes to eIF2␣ phosphorylation but that there is likely an additional kinase contributing to the phosphorylation event. Collectively, these findings indicate that the PERK arm of the UPR pathway is induced at later time points following VEEV infection. EGR1 is upregulated in infected cells and localizes to the nucleus. EGR1 is a transcription factor that can be induced by numerous signals, including oxidative stress, hypoxemia, and growth factors (39, 40) . It can also be activated upon infection by both DNA and RNA viruses, including Epstein-Barr virus, mouse hepatitis virus, murine coronavirus, and Japanese encephalitis virus (41) (42) (43) . Treatment of MEFs with the UPR activator thapsigargin has been shown to induce EGR1 expression in a PERK-dependent manner (44) . Given the link between EGR1 and UPR and the robust induction of EGR1 mRNA expression following VEEV infection ( Fig. 4 and 5) , EGR1 was chosen for further study. EGR1 protein expression after VEEV infection was analyzed by Western blot analysis. As previous studies have indicated that EGR1 can be activated by mouse hepatitis virus independently of virus replication (likely due to cellular membrane disruption following entry) (41), a UV-inactivated virus control (UV-VEEV) was included. EGR1 protein levels were increased following VEEV infection compared to those in mock-infected cells and UV-VEEV-infected cells (Fig. 7A; compare lanes 3, 6, and 9 ). The most dramatic upregulation of EGR1 occurred at 16 hpi; this correlates with the highest levels of VEEV capsid production (Fig. 1B) . Following induction, EGR1 has been shown to translocate to the nucleus to induce gene expression through binding to the Egr binding sequence (EBS) [GCG(G/T)GGCG] (40, 45) . Confocal microcopy revealed high levels of EGR1 in the nuclei of infected cells, whereas only low levels of both nuclear and cytoplasmic EGR1 were detected in mock-infected cells (Fig. 7B) . PERKi treatment of VEEV-infected cells resulted in a complete loss of EGR1 induction (Fig. 7C) , indicating that EGR1 was induced in a PERK-dependent fashion. These results demonstrate that EGR1 protein levels and nuclear localization are increased following VEEV infection and that the induction of EGR1 is dependent on PERK. The loss of EGR1 inhibits VEEV-induced apoptosis but does not alter VEEV replication kinetics. As EGR1 influences cell survival and apoptosis (46) , the impact of EGR1 on VEEV-induced cell death was assessed. Caspase 3 cleavage was observed in WT MEFs at 24 hpi when they were infected at an MOI of 0.5 and started as early as 16 hpi when they were infected at an MOI of 5 (Fig. 8A ). In contrast, EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ cells showed little to no detectable caspase cleavage following infection with VEEV. Two sets of experiments were performed to quantitatively confirm these results: CellTiter Glo assays to measure total cell viability (ATP production) and Caspase 3/7 Glo assays to measure caspase 3/7 activity. Both WT and EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ MEFs displayed dose-dependent decreases in cell viability following VEEV infection, with EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ cells having significantly more viable cells at each MOI examined (Fig. 8B) . Concordantly, a dose-dependent increase in caspase 3/7 activity was observed following VEEV infection, with EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ cells demonstrating reduced caspase 3 activity at MOIs of 0.5 and 5 (Fig. 8C) . These results were replicated in U87MG cells transfected with siRNA targeting EGR1 (Fig. 8D) . EGR1 has been shown to negatively regulate the transcription of BIRC5 (survivin), an inhibitor of apoptosis (IAP) family member (47) . RNA-Seq data indicated that BIRC5 gene expression was decreased following VEEV infection: log 2 -transformed fold change values of normalized gene expression were Ϫ1.16, Ϫ1.18, and Ϫ1.50 at 4, 8, and 16 hpi, respectively (see Table S1 in the supplemental material and NCBI BioProject accession number PRJNA300864). WT and EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ MEFs were used to determine if EGR1 influenced BIRC5 gene expression following VEEV infection. BIRC5 expression was significantly decreased at 16 hpi in VEEV-infected WT MEFs, but this reduction was not observed in VEEV-infected EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ MEFs (Fig. 8E) . Ex-pression of the gene for the X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis (XIAP), another IAP family member, was not significantly differentially altered after infection (data not shown). Collectively, these results demonstrate that EGR1 contributes to VEEV-induced apoptosis. VEEV replication kinetics were determined for both EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ and WT MEFs to determine the relevance of EGR1 in viral replication. Cells were infected at two different MOIs (0.5 and 5), and viral supernatants were collected at 4, 8, 16, and 24 hpi and analyzed by plaque assay. The replication kinetics were similar between EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ and WT MEFs at both MOIs, with titers peaking at 16 hpi (Fig. 9A) . A lack of EGR1 expression was confirmed by Western blotting (Fig. 9B) . These results were replicated in U87MG cells transfected with siRNA targeting EGR1. Transfection of siRNA targeting EGR1 resulted in a Ͼ90% decrease in EGR1 protein expression (Fig. 9D ) without any significant effect on viral replication (Fig. 9C) . These results suggest that the decrease in apoptosis observed in EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ MEFs was not due to altered VEEV replication kinetics. Despite being recognized as an emerging threat, relatively little is known about the virulence mechanisms of alphaviruses, largely due to a knowledge gap in the host-pathogen interactome. VEEV infection often results in fatal encephalitis and is known to inhibit both cellular transcription and translation in order to downregulate the innate immune response (1, 48) . In contrast, in the CNS VEEV has been shown to upregulate numerous genes in both the inflammatory response and apoptotic pathways (1, 48) . Specifically, numerous proinflammatory cytokines, including interleu-kin-1␤ (IL-1␤), IL-6, IL-12, glycogen synthase kinase 3␤, inducible nitric oxide synthase, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-␣), have all been shown to play a role in VEEV pathogenesis (49) (50) (51) (52) (53) . The use of high-throughput next-generation sequencing technologies, such as RNA-Seq, allows an in-depth and unbiased look into the virus-host transcriptome, thus enabling changes in the expression of specific mRNAs to be connected with phenotypic outcomes. To this end, identification of critical differentially expressed transcripts among clinically relevant infected cells will help lead to a greater understanding of viral pathogenesis and may prove beneficial for the identification of therapeutic targets. In this study, network analysis/RNA-Seq data and the results of protein expression studies revealed that VEEV infection resulted in activation of the PERK arm of the UPR pathway, including the activation of ATF4, CHOP, and eIF2␣ phosphorylation. Several alphaviruses have previously been reported to hijack key components of the UPR pathway in order to promote viral replication, as the reliance of enveloped viruses on the ER for the synthesis of viral envelope-associated glycoproteins and their transport to the plasma membrane often stresses the ER due to rapid viral protein production (54, 55) . Modulation of the UPR is not unique to alphaviruses; rather, it is a shared trait of many positive-sense RNA viruses. Dengue virus has been shown to suppress PERK by inhibiting continued eIF2␣ phosphorylation in order to inhibit immediate apoptosis, increasing viral protein translation and extending the length of productive viral replication (34) . Studies with hepatitis E virus (HEV) have demonstrated that expression of HEV capsid protein open reading frame 2 (ORF2) activates the expression of CHOP and ATF4 (56) . In HEV, ORF2 was shown to stimulate CHOP through both ER stressors and amino acid response elements (AARE) through interaction with ATF4 (56) . The results shown here indicate that during VEEV infection, initiation of the UPR pathway and subsequent activation of EGR1 play a role in the outcome of virus-induced apoptosis. During the initial detection of ER stress, PERK is able to identify misfolded proteins in the lumen of the ER and phosphorylates eIF2␣ in order to initiate prosurvival pathways in the UPR through the general At 24 hpi caspase 3/7 activity was analyzed using the Caspase 3/7 Glo assay. The fold change values for mock-infected cells were set to a value of 1. **, P Ͻ 0.001. (E) EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ and WT MEFs were mock or VEEV infected (MOI, 5). RNA was prepared, and gene expression was determined by qRT-PCR using a TaqMan assays for BIRC5 (survivin). The data shown are the values of the fold change of normalized gene expression determined by the ⌬⌬C T threshold cycle (C T ) method. *, P Ͻ 0.005 (comparison of VEEV-infected WT and EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ cells). inhibition of protein synthesis (33, 34) . VEEV appears to induce the UPR and promote increased eIF2␣ phosphorylation, which results in the translational inhibition of most mRNAs, while UPR selectively increases the translation of ATF4. ATF4 is responsible for the expression of genes that encode proteins involved in apoptosis, redox processes, amino acid metabolism, and ER chaperone recruitment and is a well-known mediator of the PERK pathway and CHOP (33, 34) . CHOP activation facilitates the increased expression of cellular chaperones in order to counteract the buildup of misfolded proteins (57) . Failure to suppress protein misfolding in persistently stressed cells, such as during a viral infection, can then result in activation of the proapoptotic transcription factor CHOP, leading to suppression of the antiapoptotic protein B cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2). CHOP can also function as a prosurvival transcription factor by dephosphorylating eIF2␣ through activation of the DNA damage-inducible protein (GADD34) in a self-regulating feedback look (33, 34) . However, the data presented here support a model whereby VEEV infection leads CHOP to function in its proapoptotic role, as no change in GADD34 gene expression was detected by RNA-Seq analysis. While the UPR was induced following VEEV infection, robust activation was not observed until later time points after infection. This is somewhat surprising, as VEEV infection is expected to induce significant ER stress due to the massive production of viral proteins during the course of an acute robust infection. The structural proteins of VEEV are translated from the viral subgenomic RNA into polyproteins on the rough ER. The E1 and pE2 precur-sor glycoproteins are then assembled as heterodimers in the ER, undergoing conformational changes requiring numerous chaperones (1, 58) . It is possible that VEEV has developed mechanisms to subvert the induction of the UPR. In order to counteract the UPR, the nonstructural proteins (nsPs) of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have been shown to inhibit expression of ATF4 and other known UPR target genes, including GRP78/BiP, GRP94, and CHOP (59) . Through nsP activity, CHIKV has developed a means of suppressing the UPR activity resulting from viral glycoprotein-induced ER stress, thus preventing immediate autophagy and apoptotic activation. The VEEV capsid is responsible for interfering with nucleocytoplasmic trafficking and inhibiting rRNA and mRNA transcription and has been implicated in the regulation of type I IFN signaling and the antiviral response through the regulation of both viral RNA and protein production (1, 48, 60) . Therefore, we hypothesize that the ability of the VEEV capsid to inhibit cellular transcription and block nucleocytoplasmic trafficking results in delayed induction of the UPR. The results of a detailed network analysis based on existing data in the literature, coupled with the temporal gene expression profiles obtained from this study, point toward EGR1 being an important node in the novel link between VEEV activation of the type I interferon response and UPR. EGR1 is known to form a DNA binding complex with C/EBPB, a critical dimerization partner of CHOP (61) . Previous studies have demonstrated that the nuclear localization of CHOP may act as an inducer of EGR1 and that CHOP may act as a transcriptional cofactor for regulation of C/EBPB-EGR1 target genes (61) . The results of the Western blot and microscopy analysis presented in this study support this model, as VEEV infection was found to increase both the overall levels and the nuclear distribution of CHOP along with those of EGR1. Previous studies demonstrated EGR1 mRNA induction by IFN-␥ in mouse fibroblasts and by TNF-␣, TNF-␤, IL-1, IFN-␣, IFN-␤, and IFN-␥ in human fibroblasts (31, 32) . EGR1, also known as Zif268 and NGF1-A, is a zinc finger protein and mammalian transcription factor. It has been implicated in cellular proliferation and differentiation, but it may also have proapoptotic functions, depending on the cell type and stimulus (62) . Of particular interest, EGR1 directly controls proliferation when activated by the mitogen-activated protein kinase/extracellular signal-regulated kinase pathway in mitogen-stimulated astrocytes (63) . Virus-induced changes in EGR1 expression have been observed in several in vitro systems. In HIV-1-infected astrocytes, EGR1 upregulation was found to be induced by Tat through transactivation of the EGR1 promoter, leading to cellular dysfunction and Tat-induced neurotoxicity (64) . Increased amounts of EGR1 mRNA have also been demonstrated to act in a region-specific manner, corresponding temporally with viral RNA production in the brain tissues of rats infected with either rabies virus or Borna disease virus (65) . In summary, the current study demonstrates a potential link between UPR activation and EGR1. EGR1 Ϫ/Ϫ MEFs demonstrated lower levels of susceptibility to VEEV-induced cell death than wild-type MEFs, indicating that EGR1 modulates proapoptotic pathways following infection. Studies are under way to determine if alteration of the UPR through small molecule inhibitors or siRNA interference influences VEEV replication and/or cell death. To date the mechanisms underlying VEEV pathogenesis and subsequent neuronal degeneration have been only partially elucidated. Therefore, determining the role of EGR1 and UPR may play a significant role in the development of a novel therapeutic target resulting in decreased neuronal death and the subsequent neuronal sequelae that result from infection.

How is Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus transmitted?

Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in complex humanitarian crises https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7085188/ SHA: d013e42811c6442b184da3b9bbfd9e334031a975 Authors: Poole, Danielle N.; Escudero, Daniel J.; Gostin, Lawrence O.; Leblang, David; Talbot, Elizabeth A. Date: 2020-03-21 DOI: 10.1186/s12939-020-01162-y License: cc-by Abstract: nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 [1] . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale [2] . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations [3] . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing [4] . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% [5] . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production [6] . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance [7] . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines [5, 8] . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence [9] . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations [10] . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings [2] . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

What will happen without the adaptation of existing standards?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What mechanisms, other than miRNA modulation play a role?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

What do those abnormalities sometimes culminate in?

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics Jeffery K. Taubenberger" and David M. Morens1- The “Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918—1919, which caused :50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. The public health implications of the pandemic therefore remain in doubt even as we now grapple with the feared emergence of a pandemic caused by H5N1 or other virus. However, new information about the 1918 virus is emerging, for example, sequencing of the entire genome from archival autopsy tis- sues. But, the viral genome alone is unlikely to provide answers to some critical questions. Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis. ”Curiouser and curiouser/ ” criedAlice Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 1865 An estimated one third of the world’s population (or z500 million persons) were infected and had clinical- ly apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 191871919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case- fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at z50 million (577) and were arguably as high as 100 mil- lion (7). The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 191871919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (except- ing human infections from avian Viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 Virus, including “drifted” H1N1 Viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 Viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 Virus, updated by subsequently-incor— porated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface *Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and TNational Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA proteins, making the 1918 Virus indeed the “mother” of all pandemics. In 1918, the cause of human influenza and its links to avian and swine influenza were unknown. Despite clinical and epidemiologic similarities to influenza pandemics of 1889, 1847, and even earlier, many questioned whether such an explosively fatal disease could be influenza at all. That question did not begin to be resolved until the 1930s, when closely related influenza Viruses (now known to be H1N1 Viruses) were isolated, first from pigs and shortly thereafter from humans. Seroepidemiologic studies soon linked both of these viruses to the 1918 pandemic (8). Subsequent research indicates that descendants of the 1918 Virus still persists enzootically in pigs. They probably also circulated continuously in humans, undergoing gradual antigenic drift and causing annual epidemics, until the 1950s. With the appearance of a new H2N2 pandemic strain in 1957 (“Asian flu”), the direct H1N1 Viral descen- dants 0f the 1918 pandemic strain disappeared from human circulation entirely, although the related lineage persisted enzootically in pigs. But in 1977, human H1N1 Viruses suddenly “reemerged” from a laboratory freezer (9). They continue to circulate endemically and epidemically. Thus in 2006, 2 major descendant lineages of the 1918 H1N1 Virus, as well as 2 additional reassortant lineages, persist naturally: a human epidemic/endemic H1N1 line- age, a porcine enzootic H1N1 lineage (so-called classic swine flu), and the reassorted human H3N2 Virus lineage, which like the human H1N1 Virus, has led to a porcine H3N2 lineage. None of these Viral descendants, however, approaches the pathogenicity of the 1918 parent Virus. Apparently, the porcine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages uncom- monly infect humans, and the human H1N1 and H3N2 lin- eages have both been associated with substantially lower rates ofillness and death than the virus of 1918. In fact, cur- rent H1N1 death rates are even lower than those for H3N2 lineage strains (prevalent from 1968 until the present). H1N1 Viruses descended from the 1918 strain, as well as H3N2 Viruses, have now been cocirculating worldwide for 29 years and show little evidence of imminent extinction. Trying To Understand What Happened By the early 1990s, 75 years of research had failed to answer a most basic question about the 1918 pandemic: why was it so fatal? No Virus from 1918 had been isolated, but all of its apparent descendants caused substantially milder human disease. Moreover, examination of mortality data from the 1920s suggests that within a few years after 1918, influenza epidemics had settled into a pattern of annual epidemicity associated with strain drifting and sub- stantially lowered death rates. Did some critical Viral genet- ic event produce a 1918 Virus of remarkable pathogenicity and then another critical genetic event occur soon after the 1918 pandemic to produce an attenuated H1N1 Virus? In 1995, a scientific team identified archival influenza autopsy materials collected in the autumn of 1918 and began the slow process of sequencing small Viral RNA fragments to determine the genomic structure of the causative influenza Virus (10). These efforts have now determined the complete genomic sequence of 1 Virus and partial sequences from 4 others. The primary data from the above studies (11717) and a number of reviews covering different aspects of the 1918 pandemic have recently been published ([8720) and confirm that the 1918 Virus is the likely ancestor of all 4 of the human and swine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages, as well as the “extinct” H2N2 lineage. No known mutations correlated with high pathogenicity in other human or animal influenza Viruses have been found in the 1918 genome, but ongoing studies to map Virulence factors are yielding interesting results. The 1918 sequence data, however, leave unanswered questions about the ori- gin of the Virus (19) and about the epidemiology of the pandemic. When and Where Did the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Arise? Before and after 1918, most influenza pandemics developed in Asia and spread from there to the rest of the world. Confounding definite assignment of a geographic point of origin, the 1918 pandemic spread more or less simultaneously in 3 distinct waves during an z12-month period in 191871919, in Europe, Asia, and North America (the first wave was best described in the United States in March 1918). Historical and epidemiologic data are inade- quate to identify the geographic origin of the Virus (21), and recent phylogenetic analysis of the 1918 Viral genome does not place the Virus in any geographic context ([9). Although in 1918 influenza was not a nationally reportable disease and diagnostic criteria for influenza and pneumonia were vague, death rates from influenza and pneumonia in the United States had risen sharply in 1915 and 1916 because of a major respiratory disease epidemic beginning in December 1915 (22). Death rates then dipped slightly in 1917. The first pandemic influenza wave appeared in the spring of 1918, followed in rapid succes- sion by much more fatal second and third waves in the fall and winter of 191871919, respectively (Figure 1). Is it pos- sible that a poorly-adapted H1N1 Virus was already begin- ning to spread in 1915, causing some serious illnesses but not yet sufficiently fit to initiate a pandemic? Data consis- tent with this possibility were reported at the time from European military camps (23), but a counter argument is that if a strain with a new hemagglutinin (HA) was caus- ing enough illness to affect the US national death rates from pneumonia and influenza, it should have caused a pandemic sooner, and when it eventually did, in 1918, many people should have been immune or at least partial- ly immunoprotected. “Herald” events in 1915, 1916, and possibly even in early 1918, if they occurred, would be dif- ficult to identify. The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique fea- ture, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The Virus of the 1918 pandemic like- ly expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neu- raminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 Virus were derived from an avianlike influenza Virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor Virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15, 24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the Virus also support this conclu- sion. Regression analyses of human and swine influenza sequences obtained from 1930 to the present place the ini- tial circulation of the 1918 precursor Virus in humans at approximately 191571918 (20). Thus, the precursor was probably not circulating widely in humans until shortly before 1918, nor did it appear to have jumped directly from any species of bird studied to date (19). In summary, its origin remains puzzling. Were the 3 Waves in 1918—1 919 Caused by the Same Virus? If So, How and Why? Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of interpandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza Viruses behave differently when they find a uni- versal or highly susceptible human population. Thereafter, confronted by the selection pressures of population immu- nity, these pandemic Viruses begin to drift genetically and eventually settle into a pattern of annual epidemic recur- rences caused by the drifted Virus variants. Figure 1. Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918—1919 (21). In the 1918-1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A sec- ond or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919 (21). Clinical similari- ties led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves. The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandem- ic and in prior interpandemic years. In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infec- tions to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 191871919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher fre- quency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves. But 3 extensive pandemic waves of influenza within 1 year, occurring in rapid succession, with only the briefest of quiescent intervals between them, was unprecedented. The occurrence, and to some extent the severity, of recur- rent annual outbreaks, are driven by Viral antigenic drift, with an antigenic variant Virus emerging to become domi- nant approximately every 2 to 3 years. Without such drift, circulating human influenza Viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further Virus spread was sufficiently limited. The timing and spacing of influenza epidemics in interpandemic years have been subjects of speculation for decades. Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting Virus spread in all but the most favorable circumstances, which include lower environ- mental temperatures and human nasal temperatures (bene- ficial to thermolabile Viruses such as influenza), optimal humidity, increased crowding indoors, and imperfect ven- tilation due to closed windows and suboptimal airflow. However, such factors cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918-1919, which occurred in the spring-sum- mer, summer—fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively. The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to influenza Virus spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Furthermore, the interwave peri- ods were so brief as to be almost undetectable in some locales. Reconciling epidemiologically the steep drop in cases in the first and second waves with the sharp rises in cases of the second and third waves is difficult. Assuming even transient postinfection immunity, how could suscep- tible persons be too few to sustain transmission at 1 point, and yet enough to start a new explosive pandemic wave a few weeks later? Could the Virus have mutated profoundly and almost simultaneously around the world, in the short periods between the successive waves? Acquiring Viral drift sufficient to produce new influenza strains capable of escaping population immunity is believed to take years of global circulation, not weeks of local circulation. And hav- ing occurred, such mutated Viruses normally take months to spread around the world. At the beginning of other “off season” influenza pan- demics, successive distinct waves within a year have not been reported. The 1889 pandemic, for example, began in the late spring of 1889 and took several months to spread throughout the world, peaking in northern Europe and the United States late in 1889 or early in 1890. The second recurrence peaked in late spring 1891 (more than a year after the first pandemic appearance) and the third in early 1892 (21 ). As was true for the 1918 pandemic, the second 1891 recurrence produced of the most deaths. The 3 recur- rences in 1889-1892, however, were spread over >3 years, in contrast to 191871919, when the sequential waves seen in individual countries were typically compressed into z879 months. What gave the 1918 Virus the unprecedented ability to generate rapidly successive pandemic waves is unclear. Because the only 1918 pandemic Virus samples we have yet identified are from second-wave patients ([6), nothing can yet be said about whether the first (spring) wave, or for that matter, the third wave, represented circulation of the same Virus or variants of it. Data from 1918 suggest that persons infected in the second wave may have been pro- tected from influenza in the third wave. But the few data bearing on protection during the second and third waves after infection in the first wave are inconclusive and do lit- tle to resolve the question of whether the first wave was caused by the same Virus or whether major genetic evolu- tionary events were occurring even as the pandemic exploded and progressed. Only influenza RNAipositive human samples from before 1918, and from all 3 waves, can answer this question. What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus? Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 Virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant Virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the con- trary, the 1918 Virus appears to be an avianlike influenza Virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza Virus gene sequences from a number offixed specimens ofwild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian Viruses isolated today, indicating that avian Viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25). For example, the 1918 nucleoprotein (NP) gene sequence is similar to that ofviruses found in wild birds at the amino acid level but very divergent at the nucleotide level, which suggests considerable evolutionary distance between the sources of the 1918 NP and of currently sequenced NP genes in wild bird strains (13,19). One way of looking at the evolutionary distance of genes is to com- pare ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions. A synonymous substitution represents a silent change, a nucleotide change in a codon that does not result in an amino acid replacement. A nonsynonymous substitution is a nucleotide change in a codon that results in an amino acid replacement. Generally, a Viral gene sub- jected to immunologic drift pressure or adapting to a new host exhibits a greater percentage of nonsynonymous mutations, while a Virus under little selective pressure accumulates mainly synonymous changes. Since little or no selection pressure is exerted on synonymous changes, they are thought to reflect evolutionary distance. Because the 1918 gene segments have more synony- mous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza Virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far. This is especially apparent when one examines the differences at 4-fold degenerate codons, the subset of synonymous changes in which, at the third codon position, any of the 4 possible nucleotides can be substituted without changing the resulting amino acid. At the same time, the 1918 sequences have too few amino acid difierences from those of wild-bird strains to have spent many years adapting only in a human or swine intermedi- ate host. One possible explanation is that these unusual gene segments were acquired from a reservoir of influenza Virus that has not yet been identified or sampled. All of these findings beg the question: where did the 1918 Virus come from? In contrast to the genetic makeup of the 1918 pandem- ic Virus, the novel gene segments of the reassorted 1957 and 1968 pandemic Viruses all originated in Eurasian avian Viruses (26); both human Viruses arose by the same mech- anismireassortment of a Eurasian wild waterfowl strain with the previously circulating human H1N1 strain. Proving the hypothesis that the Virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic had a markedly different origin requires samples of human influenza strains circulating before 1918 and samples of influenza strains in the wild that more closely resemble the 1918 sequences. What Was the Biological Basis for 1918 Pandemic Virus Pathogenicity? Sequence analysis alone does not ofier clues to the pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus. A series of experiments are under way to model Virulence in Vitro and in animal models by using Viral constructs containing 1918 genes produced by reverse genetics. Influenza Virus infection requires binding of the HA protein to sialic acid receptors on host cell surface. The HA receptor-binding site configuration is different for those influenza Viruses adapted to infect birds and those adapted to infect humans. Influenza Virus strains adapted to birds preferentially bind sialic acid receptors with 01 (273) linked sugars (27729). Human-adapted influenza Viruses are thought to preferentially bind receptors with 01 (2%) link- ages. The switch from this avian receptor configuration requires of the Virus only 1 amino acid change (30), and the HAs of all 5 sequenced 1918 Viruses have this change, which suggests that it could be a critical step in human host adaptation. A second change that greatly augments Virus binding to the human receptor may also occur, but only 3 of5 1918 HA sequences have it (16). This means that at least 2 H1N1 receptor-binding vari- ants cocirculated in 1918: 1 with high—affinity binding to the human receptor and 1 with mixed-affinity binding to both avian and human receptors. No geographic or chrono- logic indication eXists to suggest that one of these variants was the precursor of the other, nor are there consistent dif- ferences between the case histories or histopathologic fea- tures of the 5 patients infected with them. Whether the Viruses were equally transmissible in 1918, whether they had identical patterns of replication in the respiratory tree, and whether one or both also circulated in the first and third pandemic waves, are unknown. In a series of in Vivo experiments, recombinant influen- za Viruses containing between 1 and 5 gene segments of the 1918 Virus have been produced. Those constructs bearing the 1918 HA and NA are all highly pathogenic in mice (31). Furthermore, expression microarray analysis performed on whole lung tissue of mice infected with the 1918 HA/NA recombinant showed increased upregulation of genes involved in apoptosis, tissue injury, and oxidative damage (32). These findings are unexpected because the Viruses with the 1918 genes had not been adapted to mice; control experiments in which mice were infected with modern human Viruses showed little disease and limited Viral replication. The lungs of animals infected with the 1918 HA/NA construct showed bronchial and alveolar epithelial necrosis and a marked inflammatory infiltrate, which suggests that the 1918 HA (and possibly the NA) contain Virulence factors for mice. The Viral genotypic basis of this pathogenicity is not yet mapped. Whether pathogenicity in mice effectively models pathogenicity in humans is unclear. The potential role of the other 1918 pro- teins, singularly and in combination, is also unknown. Experiments to map further the genetic basis of Virulence of the 1918 Virus in various animal models are planned. These experiments may help define the Viral component to the unusual pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus but cannot address whether specific host factors in 1918 accounted for unique influenza mortality patterns. Why Did the 1918 Virus Kill So Many Healthy Young Ad ults? The curve of influenza deaths by age at death has histor- ically, for at least 150 years, been U-shaped (Figure 2), exhibiting mortality peaks in the very young and the very old, with a comparatively low frequency of deaths at all ages in between. In contrast, age-specific death rates in the 1918 pandemic exhibited a distinct pattern that has not been documented before or since: a “W—shaped” curve, similar to the familiar U-shaped curve but with the addition of a third (middle) distinct peak of deaths in young adults z20410 years of age. Influenza and pneumonia death rates for those 1534 years of age in 191871919, for example, were 20 times higher than in previous years (35). Overall, near- ly half of the influenza—related deaths in the 1918 pandem- ic were in young adults 20410 years of age, a phenomenon unique to that pandemic year. The 1918 pandemic is also unique among influenza pandemics in that absolute risk of influenza death was higher in those <65 years of age than in those >65; persons <65 years of age accounted for >99% of all excess influenza—related deaths in 191871919. In com- parison, the <65-year age group accounted for 36% of all excess influenza—related deaths in the 1957 H2N2 pandem- ic and 48% in the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (33). A sharper perspective emerges when 1918 age-specific influenza morbidity rates (21) are used to adj ust the W- shaped mortality curve (Figure 3, panels, A, B, and C [35,37]). Persons 65 years of age in 1918 had a dispro- portionately high influenza incidence (Figure 3, panel A). But even after adjusting age-specific deaths by age-specif— ic clinical attack rates (Figure 3, panel B), a W—shaped curve with a case-fatality peak in young adults remains and is significantly different from U-shaped age-specific case- fatality curves typically seen in other influenza years, e.g., 192871929 (Figure 3, panel C). Also, in 1918 those 5 to 14 years of age accounted for a disproportionate number of influenza cases, but had a much lower death rate from influenza and pneumonia than other age groups. To explain this pattern, we must look beyond properties of the Virus to host and environmental factors, possibly including immunopathology (e.g., antibody-dependent infection enhancement associated with prior Virus exposures [38]) and exposure to risk cofactors such as coinfecting agents, medications, and environmental agents. One theory that may partially explain these findings is that the 1918 Virus had an intrinsically high Virulence, tem- pered only in those patients who had been born before 1889, e.g., because of exposure to a then-circulating Virus capable of providing partial immunoprotection against the 1918 Virus strain only in persons old enough (>35 years) to have been infected during that prior era (35). But this the- ory would present an additional paradox: an obscure pre- cursor Virus that left no detectable trace today would have had to have appeared and disappeared before 1889 and then reappeared more than 3 decades later. Epidemiologic data on rates of clinical influenza by age, collected between 1900 and 1918, provide good evi- dence for the emergence of an antigenically novel influen- za Virus in 1918 (21). Jordan showed that from 1900 to 1917, the 5- to 15-year age group accounted for 11% of total influenza cases, while the >65-year age group accounted for 6 % of influenza cases. But in 1918, cases in Figure 2. “U-” and “W—” shaped combined influenza and pneumo- nia mortality, by age at death, per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, 1911—1918. Influenza- and pneumonia- specific death rates are plotted for the interpandemic years 1911—1917 (dashed line) and for the pandemic year 1918 (solid line) (33,34). Incidence male per 1 .nao persunslage group Mortality per 1.000 persunslige group + Case—fataiity rale 1918—1919 Case fatalily par 100 persons ill wilh P&I pel age group Figure 3. Influenza plus pneumonia (P&l) (combined) age-specific incidence rates per 1,000 persons per age group (panel A), death rates per 1,000 persons, ill and well combined (panel B), and case-fatality rates (panel C, solid line), US Public Health Service house-to-house surveys, 8 states, 1918 (36). A more typical curve of age-specific influenza case-fatality (panel C, dotted line) is taken from US Public Health Service surveys during 1928—1929 (37). the 5 to 15-year-old group jumped to 25% of influenza cases (compatible with exposure to an antigenically novel Virus strain), while the >65-year age group only accounted for 0.6% of the influenza cases, findings consistent with previously acquired protective immunity caused by an identical or closely related Viral protein to which older per- sons had once been exposed. Mortality data are in accord. In 1918, persons >75 years had lower influenza and pneumonia case-fatality rates than they had during the prepandemic period of 191171917. At the other end of the age spectrum (Figure 2), a high proportion of deaths in infancy and early childhood in 1918 mimics the age pat- tern, if not the mortality rate, of other influenza pandemics. Could a 1918-like Pandemic Appear Again? If So, What Could We Do About It? In its disease course and pathologic features, the 1918 pandemic was different in degree, but not in kind, from previous and subsequent pandemics. Despite the extraordi- nary number of global deaths, most influenza cases in 1918 (>95% in most locales in industrialized nations) were mild and essentially indistinguishable from influenza cases today. Furthermore, laboratory experiments with recombi- nant influenza Viruses containing genes from the 1918 Virus suggest that the 1918 and 1918-like Viruses would be as sensitive as other typical Virus strains to the Food and Drug Administrationiapproved antiinfluenza drugs riman- tadine and oseltamivir. However, some characteristics of the 1918 pandemic appear unique: most notably, death rates were 5 7 20 times higher than expected. Clinically and pathologically, these high death rates appear to be the result of several factors, including a higher proportion of severe and complicated infections of the respiratory tract, rather than involvement of organ systems outside the normal range of the influenza Virus. Also, the deaths were concentrated in an unusually young age group. Finally, in 1918, 3 separate recurrences of influenza followed each other with unusual rapidity, resulting in 3 explosive pandemic waves within a year’s time (Figure 1). Each of these unique characteristics may reflect genetic features of the 1918 Virus, but understand- ing them will also require examination of host and envi- ronmental factors. Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. Like the 1918 Virus, H5N1 is an avian Virus (39), though a distantly related one. The evolutionary path that led to pandemic emergence in 1918 is entirely unknown, but it appears to be different in many respects from the cur- rent situation with H5N1. There are no historical data, either in 1918 or in any other pandemic, for establishing that a pandemic “precursor” Virus caused a highly patho- genic outbreak in domestic poultry, and no highly patho- genic avian influenza (HPAI) Virus, including H5N1 and a number of others, has ever been known to cause a major human epidemic, let alone a pandemic. While data bearing on influenza Virus human cell adaptation (e.g., receptor binding) are beginning to be understood at the molecular level, the basis for Viral adaptation to efficient human-to- human spread, the chief prerequisite for pandemic emer- gence, is unknown for any influenza Virus. The 1918 Virus acquired this trait, but we do not know how, and we cur- rently have no way of knowing whether H5N1 Viruses are now in a parallel process of acquiring human-to-human transmissibility. Despite an explosion of data on the 1918 Virus during the past decade, we are not much closer to understanding pandemic emergence in 2006 than we were in understanding the risk of H1N1 “swine flu” emergence in 1976. Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pan- demic Virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the Virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic Virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths. Whether because of Viral, host or environmental fac- tors, the 1918 Virus causing the first or ‘spring’ wave was not associated with the exceptional pathogenicity of the second (fall) and third (winter) waves. Identification of an influenza RNA-positive case from the first wave could point to a genetic basis for Virulence by allowing differ- ences in Viral sequences to be highlighted. Identification of pre-1918 human influenza RNA samples would help us understand the timing of emergence of the 1918 Virus. Surveillance and genomic sequencing of large numbers of animal influenza Viruses will help us understand the genet- ic basis of host adaptation and the extent of the natural reservoir of influenza Viruses. Understanding influenza pandemics in general requires understanding the 1918 pan- demic in all its historical, epidemiologic, and biologic aspects. Dr Taubenberger is chair of the Department of Molecular Pathology at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland. His research interests include the molecular patho- physiology and evolution of influenza Viruses. Dr Morens is an epidemiologist with a long-standing inter- est in emerging infectious diseases, Virology, tropical medicine, and medical history. Since 1999, he has worked at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. References 1. Frost WH. Statistics of influenza morbidity. Public Health Rep. 19203558497. 2. Bumet F, Clark E. Influenza: a survey ofthe last 50 years in the light of modern work on the Virus of epidemic influenza. Melbourne: MacMillan; 1942. 3. Marks G, Beatty WK. Epidemics. New York: Scribners, 1976. 4. Rosenau MJ, Last JM. Maxcy-Rosenau preventative medicine and public health. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts; 1980. 5. Crosby A. America’s forgotten pandemic. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press;1989. 6. Patterson KD, Pyle GF. The geography and mortality of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med. 1991;65:4–21. 7. Johnson NPAS, Mueller J. Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med 2002;76:105–15. 8. Shope RE. The incidence of neutralizing antibodies for swine influenza virus in the sera of human beings of different ages. J Exp Med. 1936;63:669–84. 9. Kendal AP, Noble GR, Skehel JJ, Dowdle WR. Antigenic similarity of influenza A (H1N1) viruses from epidemics in 1977–1978 to “Scandinavian” strains isolated in epidemics of 1950–1951. Virology. 1978;89:632–6. 10. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Krafft AE, Bijwaard KE, Fanning TG. Initial genetic characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus. Science. 1997;275:1793–6. 11. Basler CF, Reid AH, Dybing JK, Janczewski TA, Fanning TG, Zheng H, et al. Sequence of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus nonstructural gene (NS) segment and characterization of recombinant viruses bearing the 1918 NS genes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2001;98:2746–51. 12. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Hultin JV, Taubenberger JK. Origin and evolution of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus hemagglutinin gene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 1999;96:1651–6. 13. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Janczewski TA, Lourens RM, and Taubenberger JK. Novel origin of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus nucleoprotein gene segment. J Virol. 2004;78:12462–70. 14. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Janczewski TA, McCall S, Taubenberger JK. Characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus matrix gene segment. J Virol. 2002;76:10717–23. 15. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Janczewski TA, Taubenberger JK. Characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus neuraminidase gene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2000;97:6785–90. 16. Reid AH, Janczewski TA, Lourens RM, Elliot AJ, Daniels RS, Berry CL, et al. 1918 influenza pandemic caused by highly conserved viruses with two receptor-binding variants. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003;9:1249–53. 17. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Lourens RM, Wang R, Jin G, Fanning TG. Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature. 2005;437:889–93. 18. Reid AH, Taubenberger JK. The 1918 flu and other influenza pandemics: “over there” and back again. Lab Invest. 1999;79:95–101. 19. Reid AH, Taubenberger JK, Fanning TG. Evidence of an absence: the genetic origins of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2004;2:909–14. 20. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Fanning TG. The 1918 influenza virus: a killer comes into view. Virology. 2000;274:241–5. 21. Jordan E. Epidemic influenza: a survey. Chicago: American Medical Association, 1927. 22. Capps J, Moody A. The recent epidemic of grip. JAMA. 1916;67:1349–50. 33. Oxford JS, Sefton A, Jackson R, Innes W, Daniels RS, Johnson NP. World War I may have allowed the emergence of “Spanish” influenza. Lancet Infect Dis. 2002;2:111–4. 24. Fanning TG, Slemons RD, Reid AH, Janczewski TA, Dean J, Taubenberger JK. 1917 avian influenza virus sequences suggest that the 1918 pandemic virus did not acquire its hemagglutinin directly from birds. J Virol. 2002;76:7860–2. 25. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Slemons RD, Janczewski TA, Dean J, Taubenberger JK. Relationship of pre-1918 avian influenza HA and NP sequences to subsequent avian influenza strains. Avian Dis. 2003;47:921–5. 26. Bean W, Schell M, Katz J, Kawaoka Y, Naeve C, Gorman O, et al. Evolution of the H3 influenza virus hemagglutinin from human and nonhuman hosts. J Virol. 1992;66:1129–38. 27. Weis W, Brown JH, Cusack S, Paulson JC, Skehel JJ, Wiley DC. Structure of the influenza virus haemagglutinin complexed with its receptor, sialic acid. Nature. 1988;333:426–31. 28. Gambaryan AS, Tuzikov AB, Piskarev VE, Yamnikova SS, Lvov DK, Robertson JS, et al. Specification of receptor-binding phenotypes of influenza virus isolates from different hosts using synthetic sialylglycopolymers: non-egg-adapted human H1 and H3 influenza A and influenza B viruses share a common high binding affinity for 6′-sialyl(N-acetyllactosamine). Virology. 1997;232: 345–50. 29. Matrosovich M, Gambaryan A, Teneberg S, Piskarev VE, Yamnikova SS, Lvov DK, et al. Avian influenza A viruses differ from human viruses by recognition of sialyloigosaccharides and gangliosides and by a higher conservation of the HA receptor-binding site. Virology. 1997;233:224–34. 30. Glaser L, Stevens J, Zamarin D, Wilson IA, Garcia-Sastre A, Tumpey TM, et al. A single amino acid substitution in the 1918 influenza virus hemagglutinin changes the receptor binding specificity. J Virol. 2005;79:11533–6. 31. Kobasa D, Takada A, Shinya K, Hatta M, Halfmann P, Theriault S, et al. Enhanced virulence of influenza A viruses with the haemagglutinin of the 1918 pandemic virus. Nature. 2004;431:703–7. 32. Kash JC, Basler CF, Garcia-Sastre A, Carter V, Billharz R, Swayne DE, et al. Global host immune response: pathogenesis and transcriptional profiling of type A influenza viruses expressing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes from the 1918 pandemic virus. J Virol. 2004;78:9499–511. 33. Grove RD, Hetzel AM. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1940–1960. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1968. 34. Linder FE, Grove RD. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1900–1940. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1943. 35. Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis 1998;178:53–60. 36. Frost WH. The epidemiology of influenza. Public Health Rep. 1919;34:1823–61. 37. Collins SD. Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928-1929 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918–1919. Public Health Rep. 1931;46:1909–37. 38. Majde JA. Influenza: Learn from the past. ASM News. 1996;62:514. 39. Peiris JS, Yu WC, Leung CW, Cheung CY, Ng WF, Nicholls JM, et al. Re-emergence of fatal human influenza A subtype H5N1 disease. Lancet. 2004;363:617–9. Address for correspondence: Jeffery K. Taubenberger, Department of Molecular Pathology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, 1413 Research Blvd, Bldg 101, Rm 1057, Rockville, MD 20850-3125, USA; fax. 301-295-9507; email: taubenberger@afip.osd.mil The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated.

Is there a difference in the pathologic feature and course of disease between modern influenza pandemics and the 1918 swine flu pandemic?

Etiology of Influenza-Like Illnesses from Sentinel Network Practitioners in Réunion Island, 2011-2012 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5031398/ SHA: f5ff89ebfdd0375d034c112c6c1c7e163fa69a0c Authors: Brottet, Elise; Jaffar-Bandjee, Marie-Christine; Li-Pat-Yuen, Ghislaine; Filleul, Laurent Date: 2016-09-21 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163377 License: cc-by Abstract: In Réunion Island, despite an influenza surveillance established since 1996 by the sentinel general practitioner’s network, little is known about the etiology of Influenza like-illness (ILI) that differs from influenza viruses in a tropical area. We set up a retrospective study using nasal swabs collected by sentinel GPs from ILI patients in 2011 and 2012. A total of 250 swabs were randomly selected and analyzed by multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) including research of 18 viruses and 4 bacteria. We detected respiratory viruses in 169/222 (76.1%) samples, mostly rhinovirus (23.4%), influenza A virus (21.2%), influenza B virus (12.6%), coronavirus (4.9%) and Human metapneumovirus (3.6%). Nine swabs (5.3% of positive swabs) revealed co-infections with two viruses identified, among which six concerned co-infections with influenza viruses. We observed important seasonal differences, with circulation of Human Metapneumoviruses, RSV A and B and coronavirus only during summer; whereas parainfluenza viruses were identified only during winter. In conclusion, this study highlights a substantial circulation of multiple respiratory pathogens in Réunion Island throughout the year. It shows that ILI are not only attributable to influenza and underlines the need for biological surveillance. As the use of multiplex RT-PCR showed its efficacy, it is now used routinely in the surveillance of ILI. Text: Influenza like-illness (ILI) or acute respiratory infections can be caused by several types of respiratory viruses or bacteria in humans [1] . Influenza viruses, Respiratory Syncytial viruses (RSV) and Parainfluenza viruses are identified as major viruses mostly responsible for ILI and pneumonia in several studies [2] . However practitioners cannot diagnose the infection without a biological test confirmation. Unfortunately, these infections causes are identified in less than 50% [3] . Réunion Island, a French overseas territory with 850,000 inhabitants, is located in the southern hemisphere between Madagascar and Mauritius in the Indian Ocean (Latitude: 21°05.2920 S Longitude: 55°36.4380 E.). The island benefits from a healthcare system similar to mainland France and epidemiological surveillance has been developed by the regional office of the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance (Cire OI), based on the surveillance system of mainland France [4] . Influenza activity generally increases during austral winter, corresponding to summer in Europe [5] . Since 2011, influenza vaccination campaign in Reunion Island starts in April and the vaccine used corresponds to World Health Organization recommendations for the southern hemisphere. Since 1996, clinical and biological influenza surveillance has been based on a sentinel practitioner's network [6] . In 2014, this network was composed of 58 general practitioners (GPs) spread over the island and represented around 7% of all Réunion Island GPs. Nasal swabs are randomly collected all along the year and are tested by RT-PCR for influenza viruses. Among these surveillance samples, 40 to 50% are tested positive for influenza A virus, A(H1N1)pdm09 or B virus by the virological laboratory of the University Hospital Center of Réunion. Thus ILI samples tested negative for influenza are of unknown etiology. Several biological tools allow identifying respiratory pathogens from nasal swab. In recent years, multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been developed to identify several viruses simultaneously [7] [8] [9] [10] . We therefore used this new method to set up a retrospective study using swabs collected by sentinel GPs from 2011 to 2012. The main objective of our study was to characterize respiratory pathogens responsible for ILI consultations in sentinel GPs in 2011 and 2012. Secondary objectives were to highlight seasonal trends on respiratory pathogens circulation and to describe occurrence of co-infections, especially during the flu season. ILI was defined as a sudden onset of fever more than 38 degrees Celsius and cough, associated or not with other symptoms such as breathing difficulty, headache, etc. Every week, all GPs of the sentinel network were encouraged to collect a nasal swab from the first two patients who presented ILI since less than three days. After being tested for influenza viruses, the 994 swabs collected in 2011 and 2012 are frozen at -80°C at the university hospital center (CHU) laboratory. Based on the budget, a season-stratified sample of 250 swabs was randomly selected in order to describe circulating viruses including outside flu season. Random sampling was performed with Excel 1 using the anonymized surveillance database of the Cire OI. The sampling frame contained identification number of swab assigned by Cire OI, laboratory identification number, sex, age, date of onset of symptoms, date of swab collection and result of influenza RT-PCR. We used Respifinder 1 Smart 22 kits a multiplex RT-PCR (PathoFinder, Maastricht, The Netherlands) which can detect 22 respiratory pathogens. This assay is based on the multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) technology. The reverse transcription and preamplification steps were performed on the epgradient Mastercycler 1 (Eppendorf) and the hybridization, ligation and detection steps on the LightCycler 1 480 system (Roche Applied Science). This method was chosen because of its high specificity, compared to other same methods (78% versus 33%) [3, 11] . Multiplex analysis allows for rapid production of diagnostic results. It thus allows highlighted the possible presence of eighteen respiratory viruses and four bacteria in one reaction by melt curve analysis: Influenza A not (H1N1 Statistical analyses were performed with Stata 1 and Excel 1 . Two seasons were defined to identify possible seasonal trends in circulation of the viruses: winter season during weeks 23 to 39 between June and September and summer season during the rest of the year. Data and swabs result from a surveillance system that received regulatory approvals, including the CNIL (National Commission for Information Technology and Civil Liberties Number 1592205) approval in July 2012. All the patients have received oral information and gave their consent for swab and data collection. Data were collected for surveillance purpose and are totally anonymous. Among the 250 randomly-selected swabs, 26 were not available anymore as they were sent to Influenza Reference Center for confirmation and characterization of the pathogenic agent. According to the sensitivity of the assay two samples could be discordant results between Influenza PCR initially realized and Multiplex PCR. Thus they were deleted from the analysis: one is positive for Influenza in singleplex and negative for all tested pathogens in multiplex and one is positive for Influenza in singleplex and positive for PIV2 in multiplex. In total, 222 analyses were considered. Moreover, 53 samples were negative for all analyzed respiratory pathogens (23.9%) and 169 samples had at least one detected pathogen (76.1%), finally a total of 178 pathogens was identified. During the study period, a minority of the weeks (21 i.e. 20%) did not include any sampled swab, mainly outside flu season. Patients' sex-ratio was 0.63 (86 men and 136 women) and mean age was 28.4 years [min 0; max 81]. Ten percent had less than 5 years, 24% 5-15 years, 63% 15-65 years and only 3% were 65 and older. The respiratory pathogens most frequently identified in ILI swabs were rhinovirus (23.4%), influenza A not H1N1 (21.2%) and influenza B (12.6%) ( Table 1) . Among the 22 respiratory pathogens tested by the multiplex, only three were not found in any analyzed sample: Parainfluenza3, Legionella pneumophila and Bordetella pertussis. Regarding co-infections, nine swabs revealed the presence of two viruses, among which6 involved influenza viruses (Table 2) . Analyses showed that some viruses are possibly seasonal and were circulating during a specific period of the year. They are detected only in summer for Human Metapneumovirus, RSV A and B, and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. For the latter, it is specific to the studied period since the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus reappeared in Réunion Island in October 2012 and was no longer circulating since late 2010. On the opposite, Parainfluenza 1,2 and 4 viruses were identified only in winter. For other pathogens, no specific period of detection was observed. A weekly description of samples was realized to study the distribution of respiratory pathogens in 2011 and 2012 (Fig 1) . Results of biological analyses were compared with data of ILI consultations declared by sentinel GPs in 2011 and 2012. We observed in 2011, after a first wave in June mainly due to influenza A not H1N1 virus, a second wave of ILI consultations with mainly identification of Parainfluenza viruses and not influenza viruses. In 2012, the second epidemic wave at the end of austral winter coincided with Influenza viruses and Rhinovirus circulation. Regarding negative swabs (Fig 2) , we observed no seasonality during the study period with a similar proportion whatever the season. This retrospective study based on a sentinel GPs network showed that not only influenza viruses are responsible for ILI consultations. Indeed, an important circulation of multiple pathogens was observed throughout the year, with 12 different types of pathogens identified in 2011 and 2012. Respiratory viral pathogens were present in 76.1% of samples, which is largely above results from annual influenza surveillance [12] . After influenza viruses, Rhinovirus and Coronavirus were the most common respiratory viruses in Réunion Island. Although samples were not taken every week, sample was representative of ILI activity and consistent with flu season. Nevertheless, according to the low number of samples, it is difficult to conclude about seasonality. However in our study, RSV was circulating in summer season which is hot and rainy, which is confirmed by other studies in tropical region [13] . This study also highlighted several co-infections, showing that concomitant the multiple etiology of ILI. Co-circulation was already observed in Réunion Island during the A(H1N1) pdm09 pandemic in addition to influenza virus, with identification of other respiratory viruses such as Rhinovirus or Coronavirus [14] . In mainland France, during this pandemic, circulation of major respiratory viruses was found, such as Rhinovirus, Parainfluenza, Coronavirus, Human Metapneumovirus, like in our publication [15] [16] . In our study, only 5.3% of positive swabs were co-infections whereas in two studies in Madagascar co-infections represented 27.3% and 29.4% [17] [18] . Despite the distance of 9,300 km between Réunion and France, the island is directly connected to Europe with four daily flights to France. These exchanges can impact respiratory pathogens circulation in southern and northern hemisphere. Results of this study can therefore be of interest to both Indian Ocean and Europe countries. Among the 148 swabs initially negative for influenza because not previously tested for any other viruses, the study found an etiology for 95 swabs. In total, only 53 swabs, representing 24% of the sample, remained without etiology with negative multiplex PCR results all along the year. Multiple hypotheses can explain this result: a poor quality of swabs, preventing from identifying a pathogen, noninfectious causes or other pathogens not included in the multiplex PCR. However, we couldn't test the negative swabs for RNAse P, a marker of human cells, which could provide a modicum of assurance that the swab contained human cells. Concerning the two samples divergent for influenza identification between the multiplex and singleplex PCR, we discarded them for the analysis; one was positive in Influenza with singleplex and positive in PIV with multiplex. It could be a false positive result from singleplex. Indeed, as the multiplex PCR assay has a good sensitivity and is considered as a gold-standard, we decided to keep seven negative results for Influenza in singleplex and positive in Influenza in multiplex [7] [8] [9] [10] . No case of Bordetella pertussis which causes whooping cough and Legionella pneumophila which causes Legionnaires' disease was identified in this study. However, these diseases are rare in Réunion Island, around three cases of Legionnaires' disease are declared each year. A limit of the study is that no clinical data were available in the virological surveillance system of influenza in Réunion Island. It was impossible to compare clinical symptoms according to each pathogen and to know if there are different pathogens which cause for instance rhinitis, laryngitis or bronchitis (diseases included in ILI). A specific prospective study including clinical data might provide useful elements in the semiotics of diseases. In conclusion, this study highlighted an important circulation of multiple pathogens in Réunion Island throughout the year. It shows that ILI is not specific to influenza and so it is essential to have biological results in order to establish the differential diagnosis and thus explain the etiology of symptoms. For a better understanding of respiratory pathogens circulating in Réunion Island, information from this study may also be useful to practitioners who see many patients in consultation with ILI. As the use of multiplex RT-PCR showed its efficacy in the ILI surveillance and allowed to highlight the circulation of other viruses and bacterial causes of respiratory infections, it is now used routinely in the surveillance of ILI. Moreover, it would be interesting to repeat this study every 3 or 5 years adding clinical data to monitor the evolution of respiratory pathogens in Réunion Island over time.

What does the study highlight?

Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7029449/ SHA: 90de2d957e1960b948b8c38c9877f9eca983f9eb Authors: Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M Date: 2020-02-13 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.6.2000110 License: cc-by Abstract: Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2]. The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid- to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5–6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2,5], and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2]. Text: It is now 6 weeks since Chinese health authorities announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1] causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, the major transport hub of central China. The earliest human infections had occurred by early December 2019, and a large wet market in central Wuhan was linked to most, but not all, of the initial cases [2] . While evidence from the initial outbreak investigations seemed to suggest that 2019-nCoV could not easily spread between humans [3] , it is now very clear that infections have been spreading from person to person [2] . We recently estimated that more than 75,000 infections may have occurred in Wuhan as at 25 January 2020 [4] , and increasing numbers of infections continue to be detected in other cities in mainland China and around the world. A number of important characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection have already been identified, but in order to calibrate public health responses we need improved information on transmission dynamics, severity of the disease, immunity, and the impact of control and mitigation measures that have been applied to date. Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2] . The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid-to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5-6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2, 5] , and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2] . Chains of transmission have now been reported in a number of locations outside of mainland China. Within the coming days or weeks it will become clear whether sustained local transmission has been occurring in other cities outside of Hubei province in China, or in other countries. If sustained transmission does occur in other locations, it would be valuable to determine whether there is variation in transmissibility by location, for example because of different behaviours or control measures, or because of different environmental conditions. To address the latter, virus survival studies can be done in the laboratory to confirm whether there are preferred ranges of temperature or humidity for 2019-nCoV transmission to occur. In an analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection, 73% of cases with illness onset between 12 and 22 January reported no exposure to either a wet market or another person with symptoms of a respiratory illness [2] . The lack of reported exposure to another ill person could be attributed to lack of awareness or recall bias, but China's health minister publicly warned that pre-symptomatic transmission could be occurring [6] . Determining the extent to which asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission might be occurring is an urgent priority, because it has direct implications for public health and hospital infection control. Data on viral shedding dynamics could help in assessing duration of infectiousness. For severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), infectivity peaked at around 10 days after illness onset [7] , consistent with the peak in viral load at around that time [8] . This allowed control of the SARS epidemic through prompt detection of cases and strict isolation. For influenza virus infections, virus shedding is highest on the day of illness onset and relatively higher from shortly before symptom onset until a few days after onset [9] . To date, transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV appear more similar to influenza, with contagiousness occurring around the time of symptom onset, rather than SARS. Transmission of respiratory viruses generally happens through large respiratory droplets, but some respiratory viruses can spread through fine particle aerosols [10] , and indirect transmission via fomites can also play a role. Coronaviruses can also infect the human gastrointestinal tract [11, 12] , and faecal-oral transmission might also play a role in this instance. The SARS-CoV superspreading event at Amoy Gardens where more than 300 cases were infected was attributed to faecal-oral, then airborne, spread through pressure differentials between contaminated effluent pipes, bathroom floor drains and flushing toilets [13] . The first large identifiable superspreading event during the present 2019-nCoV outbreak has apparently taken place on the Diamond Princess cruise liner quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan, with at least 130 passengers tested positive for 2019-nCoV as at 10 February 2020 [14] . Identifying which modes are important for 2019-nCoV transmission would inform the importance of personal protective measures such as face masks (and specifically which types) and hand hygiene. The first human infections were identified through a surveillance system for pneumonia of unknown aetiology, and all of the earliest infections therefore had Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes pneumonia. It is well established that some infections can be severe, particularly in older adults with underlying medical conditions [15, 16] , but based on the generally mild clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV cases detected outside China, it appears that there could be many more mild infections than severe infections. Determining the spectrum of clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV infections is perhaps the most urgent research priority, because it determines the strength of public health response required. If the seriousness of infection is similar to the 1918/19 Spanish influenza, and therefore at the upper end of severity scales in influenza pandemic plans, the same responses would be warranted for 2019-nCoV as for the most severe influenza pandemics. If, however, the seriousness of infection is similar to seasonal influenza, especially during milder seasons, mitigation measures could be tuned accordingly. Beyond a robust assessment of overall severity, it is also important to determine high risk groups. Infections would likely be more severe in older adults, obese individuals or those with underlying medical conditions, but there have not yet been reports of severity of infections in pregnant women, and very few cases have been reported in children [2] . Those under 18 years are a critical group to study in order to tease out the relative roles of susceptibility vs severity as possible underlying causes for the very rare recorded instances of infection in this age group. Are children protected from infection or do they not fall ill after infection? If they are naturally immune, which is unlikely, we should understand why; otherwise, even if they do not show symptoms, it is important to know if they shed the virus. Obviously, the question about virus shedding of those being infected but asymptomatic leads to the crucial question of infectivity. Answers to these questions are especially pertinent as basis for decisions on school closure as a social distancing intervention, which can be hugely disruptive not only for students but also because of its knock-on effect for child care and parental duties. Very few children have been confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far but that does not necessarily mean that they are less susceptible or that they could not be latent carriers. Serosurveys in affected locations could inform this, in addition to truly assessing the clinical severity spectrum. Another question on susceptibility is regarding whether 2019-nCoV infection confers neutralising immunity, usually but not always, indicated by the presence of neutralising antibodies in convalescent sera. Some experts already questioned whether the 2019-nCoV may behave similarly to MERS-CoV in cases exhibiting mild symptoms without eliciting neutralising antibodies [17] . A separate question pertains to the possibility of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or of disease [18, 19] . If either of these were to be relevant, the transmission dynamics could become more complex. A wide range of control measures can be considered to contain or mitigate an emerging infection such as 2019-nCoV. Internationally, the past week has seen an increasing number of countries issue travel advisories or outright entry bans on persons from Hubei province or China as a whole, as well as substantial cuts in flights to and from affected areas out of commercial considerations. Evaluation of these mobility restrictions can confirm their potential effectiveness in delaying local epidemics [20] , and can also inform when as well as how to lift these restrictions. If and when local transmission begins in a particular location, a variety of community mitigation measures can be implemented by health authorities to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of an epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons [21] . A number of social distancing measures have already been implemented in Chinese cities in the past few weeks including school and workplace closures. It should now be an urgent priority to quantify the effects of these measures and specifically whether they can reduce the effective reproductive number below 1, because this will guide the response strategies in other locations. During the 1918/19 influenza pandemic, cities in the United States, which implemented the most aggressive and sustained community measures were the most successful ones in mitigating the impact of that pandemic [22] . Similarly to international travel interventions, local social distancing measures should be assessed for their impact and when they could be safely discontinued, albeit in a coordinated and deliberate manner across China such that recrudescence in the epidemic curve is minimised. Mobile telephony global positioning system (GPS) data and location services data from social media providers such as Baidu and Tencent in China could become the first occasion when these data inform outbreak control in real time. At the individual level, surgical face masks have often been a particularly visible image from affected cities in China. Face masks are essential components of personal protective equipment in healthcare settings, and should be recommended for ill persons in the community or for those who care for ill persons. However, there is now a shortage of supply of masks in China and elsewhere, and debates are ongoing about their protective value for uninfected persons in the general community. The Table summarises research gaps to guide the public health response identified. In conclusion, there are a number of urgent research priorities to inform the public health response to the global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Establishing robust estimates of the clinical severity of infections is probably the most pressing, because flattening out the surge in hospital admissions would be essential if there is a danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed with patients who require inpatient care, not only for those infected with 2019-nCoV but also for urgent acute care of patients with other conditions including those scheduled for procedures and operations. In addressing the research gaps identified here, there is a need for strong collaboration of a competent corps of epidemiological scientists and public health workers who have the flexibility to cope with the surge capacity required, as well as support from laboratories that can deliver on the ever rising demand for diagnostic tests for 2019-nCoV and related sequelae. The readiness survey by Reusken et al. in this issue of Eurosurveillance testifies to the rapid response and capabilities of laboratories across Europe should the outbreak originating in Wuhan reach this continent [23] . In the medium term, we look towards the identification of efficacious pharmaceutical agents to prevent and treat what may likely become an endemic infection globally. Beyond the first year, one interesting possibility in the longer term, perhaps borne of wishful hope, is that after the first few epidemic waves, the subsequent endemic re-infections could be of milder severity. Particularly if children are being infected and are developing immunity hereafter, 2019-nCoV could optimistically become the fifth human coronavirus causing the common cold. None declared.

What are the delays between infection to illness and illness to laboratory confirmatiion?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What would limit the use of poxvirus vectored vaccines?