Tree-Based Modeling and Estimation of Gaussian Processes on Graphs with Cycles
We present the embedded trees algorithm, an iterative technique for estimation of Gaussian processes defined on arbitrary graphs. By exactly solving a series of modified problems on embedded spanning trees, it computes the conditional means with an efficiency comparable to or better than other techniques. Unlike other methods, the embedded trees algorithm also computes exact error covariances. The error covariance computation is most efficient for graphs in which removing a small number of edges reveals an embedded tree. In this context, we demonstrate that sparse loopy graphs can provide a significant increase in modeling power relative to trees, with only a minor increase in estimation complexity.