Forecast on vietnam electricity consumption to 2030
This article is aimed to forecast the consumption for Vietnam electricity system (GWH) to 2030. An econometric model with the Cobb Douglas production function is used. Five variables proposed in the forecasting function are GDP, income, population, proportion of industry and service in GDP, and number of households. The forecasting equation is tested in terms of stationary and co-integration to choose meaningful variables and to eliminate the minor ones which account for none or small impacts on the forecast. The results show that: (1) the qualified forecasting equation only includes 03 major variables: the per capita income, the population, and the number of households, (2) with medium scenario of the income, the forecasting consumptions in 2020, 2025, 2030 are 230,195 GWH, 349,949 GWH, 511,268 GWH, respectively. (3) The GDP and the proportion of industry and service in GDP do not make major impacts on this forecasting in Vietnam. The method and the result of this article likely are a typical example for developing countries which have a kind of transforming economy as that in Vietnam.